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These are the user uploaded subtitles that are being translated: 1 00:00:05,800 --> 00:00:08,357 Welcome to the planet Earth. 2 00:00:08,916 --> 00:00:12,353 A world of blue nitrogen skies, 3 00:00:12,713 --> 00:00:16,469 oceans of liquid water and more kinds of living things 4 00:00:16,549 --> 00:00:19,346 than you can possibly imagine. 5 00:00:21,543 --> 00:00:24,581 You are the newest page in its four-billion-year-old 6 00:00:24,660 --> 00:00:26,418 book of life. 7 00:00:27,657 --> 00:00:29,735 We're all very young here. 8 00:00:29,816 --> 00:00:32,493 New, like you, to the mysteries of the universe. 9 00:00:33,691 --> 00:00:37,368 We hope someday you will add to the little we know. 10 00:00:37,887 --> 00:00:39,885 I can see a future for you that is, 11 00:00:39,965 --> 00:00:42,722 in many ways, longer and brighter, 12 00:00:42,802 --> 00:00:46,998 and more free than any human generation has ever experienced. 13 00:00:49,515 --> 00:00:51,993 I also sense danger. 14 00:00:52,632 --> 00:00:53,990 That's nothing new here. 15 00:00:54,071 --> 00:00:55,829 It's always been that way. 16 00:00:55,908 --> 00:00:58,587 To be alive is to be in some measure of jeopardy. 17 00:01:00,024 --> 00:01:02,222 Life is dangerous. 18 00:01:02,741 --> 00:01:05,140 In every generation, in every time, 19 00:01:06,139 --> 00:01:08,536 everywhere on Earth. 20 00:01:08,856 --> 00:01:10,654 Our species, and our fellow Earthlings, 21 00:01:10,734 --> 00:01:12,731 have gotten through the tough times, 22 00:01:12,812 --> 00:01:15,169 when the prospects for life looked bleak. 23 00:01:15,249 --> 00:01:18,006 Somehow, we manage to endure. 24 00:01:19,805 --> 00:01:22,482 And now, we want to protect you, 25 00:01:23,241 --> 00:01:27,956 and your 360,000 brothers and sisters also born on this day. 26 00:01:30,115 --> 00:01:32,272 I have so much to tell you about our world. 27 00:01:33,470 --> 00:01:36,068 Some of these stories are frightening. 28 00:01:36,148 --> 00:01:38,706 But don't be afraid. 29 00:01:38,785 --> 00:01:41,222 We'll find a way. 30 00:02:43,200 --> 00:02:45,557 Where do I begin? 31 00:02:45,637 --> 00:02:47,516 So much has happened before you got here. 32 00:02:48,274 --> 00:02:51,950 Fortunately, our ancestors figured out a way to reach all 33 00:02:52,031 --> 00:02:56,066 the way back in time to piece together the great story of 34 00:02:56,147 --> 00:02:58,384 our planet's own childhood. 35 00:02:58,903 --> 00:03:01,342 And the amazing things that have happened since. 36 00:03:01,901 --> 00:03:06,496 It's called science, and it's your birthright. 37 00:03:08,574 --> 00:03:14,648 It's hard to believe that all of this grandeur was once a sea of fire. 38 00:03:16,046 --> 00:03:18,724 Come, I'll show you. 39 00:03:22,360 --> 00:03:25,636 This time next year, you'll have your first birthday. 40 00:03:26,076 --> 00:03:28,673 That means you will have completed one whole trip 41 00:03:28,754 --> 00:03:31,231 around the Sun, which is what an Earth year is. 42 00:03:32,550 --> 00:03:34,667 To understand the vast time scale of the cosmos, 43 00:03:35,106 --> 00:03:37,944 and our little world, we've squished all of time into the 44 00:03:38,024 --> 00:03:39,503 scale of a single year. 45 00:03:40,262 --> 00:03:42,580 And that's where we are now. 46 00:03:42,660 --> 00:03:44,418 On the Cosmic Calendar. 47 00:03:45,017 --> 00:03:47,734 Every month is a little more than a billion years, 48 00:03:48,533 --> 00:03:51,410 every day a little less than forty million. 49 00:03:52,369 --> 00:03:56,925 A single hour on this calendar is almost two million years. 50 00:03:58,004 --> 00:04:00,761 Earth was born in fire. 51 00:04:02,918 --> 00:04:05,317 Fires within its seething heart. 52 00:04:07,993 --> 00:04:12,669 And great balls of rock and ice that explode in fiery impact. 53 00:04:14,747 --> 00:04:17,464 One was almost as big as Mars, 54 00:04:17,784 --> 00:04:20,181 and when it struck Earth, it formed the Moon. 55 00:04:25,176 --> 00:04:29,452 But not to worry, little one, because those fireballs were 56 00:04:29,532 --> 00:04:31,490 part of the chaotic early solar system. 57 00:04:32,569 --> 00:04:34,527 In the billions of years since, 58 00:04:34,606 --> 00:04:37,284 the other worlds swept free the lanes of their orbits. 59 00:04:38,084 --> 00:04:41,799 So our solar system is a relatively peaceful place now. 60 00:04:44,917 --> 00:04:47,354 After its first half billion years, 61 00:04:47,433 --> 00:04:50,271 Earth was spinning faster than it does today. 62 00:04:51,389 --> 00:04:54,986 The days were shorter, merely six hours long. 63 00:04:57,623 --> 00:04:59,901 The Moon was ten times closer, 64 00:04:59,981 --> 00:05:02,818 and its gravitational grip on the young planet was much stronger. 65 00:05:04,057 --> 00:05:07,333 The shores of the land were battered by the largest tidal 66 00:05:07,413 --> 00:05:09,611 waves the world has ever known. 67 00:05:09,931 --> 00:05:12,728 A thousand times greater than they are today. 68 00:05:13,447 --> 00:05:17,003 The infant Earth was no place for us then. 69 00:05:18,363 --> 00:05:21,759 The atmosphere was mostly carbon dioxide, methane, and ammonia, 70 00:05:22,558 --> 00:05:25,475 a toxic environment for our kind of life. 71 00:05:25,914 --> 00:05:28,352 We don't know what the climate was like back then, 72 00:05:28,432 --> 00:05:30,309 but scientists reason that the thick, 73 00:05:30,390 --> 00:05:33,547 hazy atmosphere trapped the heat of the Earth and 74 00:05:33,627 --> 00:05:35,865 made it scorching hot. 75 00:05:36,504 --> 00:05:39,940 Another kind of life, tiny creatures that could shrug off 76 00:05:40,019 --> 00:05:43,776 the methane and eat carbon dioxide and sunlight for breakfast, 77 00:05:44,575 --> 00:05:47,452 found a way to make a living in the ocean. 78 00:05:49,251 --> 00:05:51,328 And those scrappy little cyanobacteria, 79 00:05:51,408 --> 00:05:54,325 as they're known, remade the whole planet. 80 00:05:55,284 --> 00:05:57,282 By gobbling up the carbon dioxide, 81 00:05:57,363 --> 00:06:00,520 and giving off oxygen, they turned the sky blue. 82 00:06:02,158 --> 00:06:04,714 All that oxygen destroyed the methane shroud 83 00:06:04,795 --> 00:06:06,833 that enveloped our planet. 84 00:06:06,912 --> 00:06:08,911 And it was cool. 85 00:06:09,350 --> 00:06:12,227 Not as cool as it is now, but more like a really hot 86 00:06:12,308 --> 00:06:14,824 summer day year-round. 87 00:06:14,905 --> 00:06:16,983 And then something wonderful happened. 88 00:06:18,101 --> 00:06:21,058 The atoms of oxygen that the tiny creatures in the ocean 89 00:06:21,138 --> 00:06:25,414 produced began to gather high above the world in the sky. 90 00:06:26,333 --> 00:06:29,451 And a new kind of molecule was made. 91 00:06:29,530 --> 00:06:31,369 Ozone. 92 00:06:31,448 --> 00:06:33,966 It created an invisible canopy against those rays of 93 00:06:34,045 --> 00:06:36,203 the Sun that were lethal. 94 00:06:36,284 --> 00:06:40,120 Now, for the first time, life was free to leave the 95 00:06:40,198 --> 00:06:43,195 oceans for the land. 96 00:06:44,675 --> 00:06:47,831 And before long, life seized these new opportunities. 97 00:06:55,064 --> 00:06:59,060 A wild variety of shapes and sizes evolved as adaptations 98 00:06:59,140 --> 00:07:01,737 to these new habitats. 99 00:07:01,817 --> 00:07:05,573 And there were ears and noses and wings. 100 00:07:13,406 --> 00:07:15,922 I'd like you to meet a fellow Earthling, 101 00:07:16,563 --> 00:07:19,879 a very distant relative of yours. 102 00:07:20,198 --> 00:07:22,157 You've only been here a day, 103 00:07:22,236 --> 00:07:25,713 but beetles have been here for 300 million years. 104 00:07:27,471 --> 00:07:29,989 And the changes they've seen on this world... 105 00:07:32,546 --> 00:07:35,822 Our kind has only been here for a fraction of that amount of time, 106 00:07:36,821 --> 00:07:40,258 11:00 on New Year's Eve of the cosmic year. 107 00:07:40,338 --> 00:07:43,855 That's when our ancestors stood up for the first time. 108 00:07:43,934 --> 00:07:46,971 We call them Homo erectus for that reason. 109 00:07:47,770 --> 00:07:51,127 They were no longer forced to stare at the mud beneath their feet. 110 00:07:51,606 --> 00:07:55,043 Now, they could look up and see the stars, 111 00:07:55,562 --> 00:07:57,960 and their hands were free to change the world. 112 00:07:58,040 --> 00:08:00,477 They began to move around, to explore, 113 00:08:00,558 --> 00:08:04,474 daring to risk everything to get to unknown places. 114 00:08:05,592 --> 00:08:07,590 They were brave. 115 00:08:07,670 --> 00:08:10,427 And their blood runs in your veins. 116 00:08:12,146 --> 00:08:14,943 Some of them explored the vast continent of Africa. 117 00:08:15,783 --> 00:08:19,258 Others ranged north, taking a left turn into Europe. 118 00:08:21,096 --> 00:08:23,854 There is evidence that they would later evolve into the 119 00:08:23,933 --> 00:08:26,572 lost people we call Neanderthals. 120 00:08:27,769 --> 00:08:29,807 We have no idea what they called themselves, 121 00:08:29,888 --> 00:08:32,125 but we named them after the place in Germany where 122 00:08:32,206 --> 00:08:34,363 we first discovered their ancient remains. 123 00:08:36,162 --> 00:08:39,198 Another even more mysterious branch of our family 124 00:08:39,278 --> 00:08:41,995 took a right turn into Asia. 125 00:08:42,075 --> 00:08:45,232 And they evolved into people we call the Denisovans. 126 00:08:47,270 --> 00:08:48,549 But you and I, 127 00:08:48,629 --> 00:08:51,266 and all our other human brothers and sisters, 128 00:08:51,346 --> 00:08:53,304 were mainly descended from the people who stayed in 129 00:08:53,384 --> 00:08:56,101 Africa for another million and a half years. 130 00:08:57,140 --> 00:09:00,376 Sure, most of us have a little blood from the other branches of the family, 131 00:09:01,376 --> 00:09:04,052 but we are mostly the children of Africa. 132 00:09:04,693 --> 00:09:07,489 To see how our kind spread out around the planet, 133 00:09:07,570 --> 00:09:09,488 we have to go even closer to midnight. 134 00:09:10,167 --> 00:09:11,724 11:55. 135 00:09:11,805 --> 00:09:13,803 Or about 150,000 years ago. 136 00:09:16,880 --> 00:09:20,595 It is now a minute and a half to midnight. 137 00:09:26,470 --> 00:09:29,227 Until about 40,000 years ago, 138 00:09:29,307 --> 00:09:32,104 our Neanderthal relatives lived very much as we did. 139 00:09:33,543 --> 00:09:35,700 They had bigger brains than we do, 140 00:09:35,781 --> 00:09:37,219 and were brawnier, 141 00:09:37,300 --> 00:09:40,096 but they did many of the things that we think of as being human. 142 00:09:42,254 --> 00:09:46,769 Most of us still carry some tiny portion of their genes inside us. 143 00:09:48,608 --> 00:09:51,005 But there are no more living Neanderthals today. 144 00:09:51,805 --> 00:09:53,443 Nor are there any of our other cousins, 145 00:09:53,523 --> 00:09:55,321 the Denisovans. 146 00:09:55,800 --> 00:09:59,796 When this happens, when a whole species vanishes... 147 00:09:59,876 --> 00:10:02,314 we call it extinction. 148 00:10:03,193 --> 00:10:07,229 It's the end of a road that began four billion years ago 149 00:10:07,588 --> 00:10:09,986 with the origin of life. 150 00:10:12,743 --> 00:10:14,781 We don't know why they died out. 151 00:10:15,260 --> 00:10:17,858 We do know that they never ranged beyond the ocean 152 00:10:17,937 --> 00:10:19,975 coastlines of their environment. 153 00:10:20,456 --> 00:10:24,051 Maybe our hominid cousins were just a bit more contented, 154 00:10:24,132 --> 00:10:27,129 less anxious and more at peace than we are. 155 00:10:28,047 --> 00:10:30,764 Maybe it's a restlessness that prods us humans to 156 00:10:30,845 --> 00:10:32,682 choose the unknown. 157 00:10:32,763 --> 00:10:36,439 Some powerful force moved our ancestors to daring 158 00:10:36,519 --> 00:10:38,197 feats of courage. 159 00:10:38,276 --> 00:10:42,193 They crossed great oceans with no idea of what lay on the other side, 160 00:10:42,952 --> 00:10:45,789 carrying our people to every continent on Earth. 161 00:10:46,908 --> 00:10:49,665 And even to the Moon. 162 00:10:49,785 --> 00:10:51,903 By the last second of the cosmic year, 163 00:10:51,983 --> 00:10:55,780 there was no place on Earth that we had left untouched. 164 00:10:58,137 --> 00:11:01,774 We became the first species to remake the planet since the 165 00:11:01,853 --> 00:11:05,809 one-celled cyanobacteria did billions of years ago. 166 00:11:06,368 --> 00:11:09,804 To change the oceans, the land and the atmosphere. 167 00:11:11,244 --> 00:11:15,519 And these changes have led to a new mass extinction. 168 00:11:15,599 --> 00:11:18,356 The scientific community has looked at the evidence, 169 00:11:18,436 --> 00:11:21,953 and decided our age needs a new name. 170 00:11:22,272 --> 00:11:24,590 The Anthropocene. 171 00:11:24,670 --> 00:11:26,228 "Anthropo" from the Greek word for 172 00:11:26,308 --> 00:11:29,545 "Human" and "Cene" the Greek word for "Recent." 173 00:11:30,424 --> 00:11:33,141 It reflects our global impact on the environment and 174 00:11:33,221 --> 00:11:35,459 the life it sustains. 175 00:11:35,539 --> 00:11:38,296 There's disagreement about when it began, 176 00:11:38,377 --> 00:11:40,734 and nobody knows how it will turn out. 177 00:11:42,372 --> 00:11:44,370 Happy New Year, little one. 178 00:11:44,449 --> 00:11:47,687 Welcome to the Anthropocene. 179 00:11:54,400 --> 00:11:56,637 I see a great future for you, little one. 180 00:11:57,796 --> 00:11:59,954 But a shadow hangs over it. 181 00:12:00,474 --> 00:12:02,831 We're not exactly sure when the darkening began. 182 00:12:04,230 --> 00:12:07,707 When did we become a force of nature, altering the skies, 183 00:12:08,505 --> 00:12:10,783 the seas and the land of the planet? 184 00:12:12,021 --> 00:12:14,859 When did the age of the Anthropocene begin? 185 00:12:15,818 --> 00:12:18,335 Some would say that it started in places like this one, 186 00:12:19,175 --> 00:12:21,452 more than 10,000 years ago. 187 00:12:22,411 --> 00:12:25,528 Did our ancestors paint these images of mammoths and 188 00:12:25,608 --> 00:12:29,444 saber-tooth tigers and giant sloths to somehow keep their 189 00:12:29,484 --> 00:12:32,961 memory alive after slaughtering the last of them? 190 00:12:35,118 --> 00:12:37,716 Human-caused extinction is nothing new. 191 00:12:38,195 --> 00:12:40,673 But we can't really blame our ancestors. 192 00:12:40,792 --> 00:12:43,351 How could they know that this or that kill meant 193 00:12:43,430 --> 00:12:46,387 the end of an entire species? 194 00:12:47,307 --> 00:12:50,382 I wonder, maybe the Anthropocene started with the 195 00:12:50,463 --> 00:12:53,379 first seed that was planted in the ground, 196 00:12:53,460 --> 00:12:56,217 and the agricultural revolution that followed. 197 00:12:56,857 --> 00:12:59,894 Before that time, the world had twice as many trees to 198 00:12:59,973 --> 00:13:03,610 convert the Earth's carbon dioxide into oxygen. 199 00:13:03,690 --> 00:13:05,648 With the invention of agriculture, 200 00:13:05,727 --> 00:13:09,683 our ancestors stopped wandering to settle down into 201 00:13:09,763 --> 00:13:11,641 farms and cities. 202 00:13:17,116 --> 00:13:19,953 This is Çatalhöyük. 203 00:13:20,033 --> 00:13:22,270 It was one of the earliest cities. 204 00:13:22,989 --> 00:13:26,106 This is how it looked about 9,000 years ago. 205 00:13:26,747 --> 00:13:30,742 The great move indoors changed our relationship to nature. 206 00:13:31,422 --> 00:13:33,979 Those hearths, those fires that warmed the small 207 00:13:34,058 --> 00:13:36,017 dwellings of our ancestors... 208 00:13:36,097 --> 00:13:38,215 were they the beginning? 209 00:13:38,853 --> 00:13:41,251 The smoke from those small fires did little to 210 00:13:41,330 --> 00:13:43,089 alter the atmosphere. 211 00:13:43,169 --> 00:13:44,768 But over thousands of years, 212 00:13:44,848 --> 00:13:46,886 our numbers grew exponentially, 213 00:13:47,365 --> 00:13:49,563 until we were cranking out enough carbon dioxide 214 00:13:49,643 --> 00:13:52,640 into the atmosphere to warm the whole world. 215 00:13:54,518 --> 00:13:56,516 Did the Anthropocene begin with 216 00:13:56,595 --> 00:13:58,674 the domestication of animals? 217 00:13:59,073 --> 00:14:02,390 Cattle convert wild grasses into methane, 218 00:14:02,469 --> 00:14:04,828 another gas that changes the climate. 219 00:14:04,907 --> 00:14:08,063 It happens inside them when they're digesting their meals. 220 00:14:08,144 --> 00:14:09,702 But nobody would figure this out until the 221 00:14:09,783 --> 00:14:11,701 modern scientific era. 222 00:14:12,380 --> 00:14:15,137 How could a few head of cattle do any harm, 223 00:14:15,217 --> 00:14:17,814 let alone change Earth so radically? 224 00:14:18,693 --> 00:14:21,050 Our ancestors wanted to feed their families, 225 00:14:21,131 --> 00:14:23,568 and make sure that the little ones would not go hungry. 226 00:14:24,767 --> 00:14:26,605 That they would live. 227 00:14:28,843 --> 00:14:31,400 In China, around 4,000 years ago, 228 00:14:31,480 --> 00:14:34,357 a world-changing discovery was made. 229 00:14:34,437 --> 00:14:37,354 There were rocks that you could burn for fuel to drive 230 00:14:37,434 --> 00:14:39,513 away the cold and the damp. 231 00:14:40,670 --> 00:14:43,908 These rocks were actually the carbon remains of plants and 232 00:14:43,987 --> 00:14:46,865 trees that had died hundreds of millions of years before, 233 00:14:47,903 --> 00:14:50,380 and lay buried in the earth. 234 00:14:50,821 --> 00:14:54,297 Was the discovery of coal the beginning of the Anthropocene? 235 00:14:55,056 --> 00:14:58,373 Coal became increasingly important to power forges and 236 00:14:58,452 --> 00:15:00,531 foundries and homes. 237 00:15:01,889 --> 00:15:05,725 Or did the Anthropocene really get going about 1,000 years later, 238 00:15:06,165 --> 00:15:09,522 when people all over Asia began to grow rice? 239 00:15:10,321 --> 00:15:11,959 This ingenious technique, 240 00:15:12,039 --> 00:15:15,076 which involves transplanting seedlings into flooded paddies, 241 00:15:15,715 --> 00:15:18,033 is called "Puddling." 242 00:15:18,112 --> 00:15:20,949 There was no way for these hardworking farmers to know 243 00:15:21,030 --> 00:15:23,588 that this particular method of growing rice, 244 00:15:23,667 --> 00:15:27,103 like the cattle, would someday produce tens of millions of 245 00:15:27,184 --> 00:15:29,581 tons of methane per year. 246 00:15:30,181 --> 00:15:33,377 The flooded soil loses oxygen, and then tiny, 247 00:15:33,457 --> 00:15:35,735 invisible creatures, microbes, 248 00:15:35,815 --> 00:15:38,652 digest the plant matter and produce methane. 249 00:15:39,451 --> 00:15:43,207 The leaves of the rice plants release more methane into the atmosphere. 250 00:15:44,526 --> 00:15:47,443 These early farmers had no way of seeing what was 251 00:15:47,523 --> 00:15:50,040 happening on the scale of the very small. 252 00:15:50,839 --> 00:15:53,716 Again, they were just trying to feed themselves 253 00:15:54,037 --> 00:15:56,034 and each other. 254 00:16:00,750 --> 00:16:02,908 There's all kinds of writing. 255 00:16:02,987 --> 00:16:04,826 But this is how time writes. 256 00:16:05,705 --> 00:16:07,662 If you know how to read time's alphabet, 257 00:16:07,743 --> 00:16:10,819 you can reconstruct events in the great story of the planet. 258 00:16:11,898 --> 00:16:15,095 The most dramatic passage in this saga is not written in 259 00:16:15,175 --> 00:16:18,132 the brightest colors, but in pale white. 260 00:16:19,211 --> 00:16:22,567 This pale white line is kind of an epic poem. 261 00:16:23,247 --> 00:16:26,004 It tells the saga of the death of titans, 262 00:16:26,843 --> 00:16:28,562 all over the planet. 263 00:16:28,641 --> 00:16:31,758 This layer of an otherwise rare metal called iridium, 264 00:16:31,839 --> 00:16:34,596 signifies the end of the Cretaceous chapter some 265 00:16:34,675 --> 00:16:37,272 66 million years ago. 266 00:16:37,353 --> 00:16:40,869 This is when dinosaurs, and three quarters of all the 267 00:16:40,948 --> 00:16:44,266 plants and animals became extinct. 268 00:16:44,585 --> 00:16:46,503 There's a custom among geologists. 269 00:16:46,583 --> 00:16:48,581 If you find a layer in the earth that indicates 270 00:16:48,661 --> 00:16:51,658 the boundary of the first or last time that the fossils of 271 00:16:51,738 --> 00:16:53,416 any species can be found, 272 00:16:53,496 --> 00:16:56,852 you mark it with a "golden spike." 273 00:16:57,412 --> 00:16:59,650 You drive it into the rock with a hammer. 274 00:16:59,729 --> 00:17:02,367 If we are living in the Anthropocene, 275 00:17:02,447 --> 00:17:05,723 the age of human- caused extinction, 276 00:17:05,803 --> 00:17:09,719 what wall do we drive our golden spike into? 277 00:17:13,636 --> 00:17:17,111 It's in me, little one. 278 00:17:17,192 --> 00:17:20,469 When I was brand new, just like you, only a day old, 279 00:17:20,548 --> 00:17:22,985 there were two great superpowers fighting 280 00:17:23,066 --> 00:17:25,144 over the planet. 281 00:17:25,224 --> 00:17:28,940 They were both willing to destroy everything to assert 282 00:17:29,019 --> 00:17:31,178 their dominance. 283 00:17:31,258 --> 00:17:35,453 On the very day I was born, both nations exploded nuclear 284 00:17:35,533 --> 00:17:39,010 weapons in the atmosphere just to show how strong they were. 285 00:17:40,568 --> 00:17:42,885 And those were only a few of the thousands that were 286 00:17:42,966 --> 00:17:45,762 detonated over a period of decades. 287 00:17:46,442 --> 00:17:49,598 The bombs gave off strontium 90, 288 00:17:49,919 --> 00:17:53,515 an atom made unstable by its excess nuclear energy. 289 00:17:53,595 --> 00:17:56,152 It's called a radioactive isotope. 290 00:17:56,233 --> 00:17:59,509 It polluted mother's milk all over the planet. 291 00:18:00,029 --> 00:18:04,624 Mothers nursing babies like you refused to live with this horror. 292 00:18:04,704 --> 00:18:10,657 They joined together to protest until a treaty was signed in 1963. 293 00:18:11,257 --> 00:18:13,614 I, and my whole generation, 294 00:18:13,694 --> 00:18:16,491 carry an excess of another radioactive isotope 295 00:18:16,571 --> 00:18:19,089 in the tissues of our bodies. 296 00:18:19,169 --> 00:18:21,686 It's called carbon 14. 297 00:18:21,766 --> 00:18:25,602 So if I ever lose my mind, or forget how old I am, 298 00:18:25,683 --> 00:18:28,079 the echoes of those nuclear explosions on the day 299 00:18:28,160 --> 00:18:31,477 of my birth would tell you my age. 300 00:18:32,516 --> 00:18:36,352 Does this "golden spike" inside me signify the beginning 301 00:18:36,431 --> 00:18:38,869 of the Anthropocene? 302 00:18:39,508 --> 00:18:42,345 Is that when it began? 303 00:18:42,745 --> 00:18:44,303 The atmospheric testing ended, 304 00:18:44,383 --> 00:18:46,741 but we just kept on trashing our home. 305 00:18:46,821 --> 00:18:50,097 All the while knowing that the day would come when 306 00:18:50,177 --> 00:18:53,014 it would all fall down. 307 00:18:53,094 --> 00:18:54,972 What good is it to know of a danger if you don't do 308 00:18:55,052 --> 00:18:57,650 anything about it? 309 00:18:57,729 --> 00:19:00,647 Maybe it's better not to know. 310 00:19:00,726 --> 00:19:03,284 Knowing can be a curse. 311 00:19:12,314 --> 00:19:18,029 The stories that live the longest are those that never were, 312 00:19:18,109 --> 00:19:21,665 and always will be: myths. 313 00:19:22,664 --> 00:19:25,302 Apollo, the ancient god of light, 314 00:19:25,342 --> 00:19:27,419 was always on the prowl for attractive humans. 315 00:19:28,858 --> 00:19:31,735 One day, while strolling the bustling streets of Troy, 316 00:19:31,815 --> 00:19:34,452 a rival city of the Ancient Greeks, 317 00:19:34,532 --> 00:19:38,208 he spied Cassandra, the smartest and most beautiful of 318 00:19:38,288 --> 00:19:40,326 the daughters of King Priam. 319 00:19:41,285 --> 00:19:44,083 Apollo fell madly in love with her. 320 00:19:48,399 --> 00:19:51,555 Apollo usually got his way, and he was shocked when 321 00:19:51,634 --> 00:19:53,953 Cassandra rejected him. 322 00:19:54,472 --> 00:19:56,590 How could he win her heart? 323 00:19:56,670 --> 00:19:58,788 She lacked for nothing. 324 00:19:58,868 --> 00:20:01,065 And she was happy. 325 00:20:01,385 --> 00:20:04,702 But Apollo was not so easily dissuaded. 326 00:20:04,782 --> 00:20:07,938 And so he made her an irresistible offer. 327 00:20:08,657 --> 00:20:11,694 He would grant her the gift of prophecy, 328 00:20:11,774 --> 00:20:14,691 the ability to see the future. 329 00:20:15,530 --> 00:20:17,568 Cassandra was thrilled. 330 00:20:17,649 --> 00:20:20,325 Knowing what would happen before anyone else would make 331 00:20:20,405 --> 00:20:22,964 her all-powerful. 332 00:20:23,042 --> 00:20:26,560 But then, Apollo explained to her what he expected in return. 333 00:20:27,759 --> 00:20:31,114 She would have to submit to him as his lover. 334 00:20:31,195 --> 00:20:34,432 This was too high a price for Cassandra. 335 00:20:34,511 --> 00:20:37,948 Apollo's rage took the form of a cruel and ingenious curse. 336 00:20:38,787 --> 00:20:42,064 He granted Cassandra the ability to foresee the future, 337 00:20:42,144 --> 00:20:44,701 but condemned her to be ignored. 338 00:21:02,323 --> 00:21:05,200 The Trojans thought she was nuts. 339 00:21:05,280 --> 00:21:07,478 They contemptuously referred to her as the 340 00:21:07,557 --> 00:21:09,836 "Lady of Many Sorrows." 341 00:21:10,195 --> 00:21:12,673 Today she would be dismissed as a prophet of 342 00:21:12,752 --> 00:21:15,069 gloom and doom. 343 00:21:16,109 --> 00:21:19,266 Cassandra saw nothing but trouble when her brother, Paris, 344 00:21:19,346 --> 00:21:21,623 decided to take a trip to Sparta. 345 00:21:22,502 --> 00:21:25,181 She alone knew that when he got there, 346 00:21:25,220 --> 00:21:28,177 he would fall in love with the King's wife, 347 00:21:28,256 --> 00:21:31,653 a beauty named Helen, whom he would abduct. 348 00:21:31,734 --> 00:21:34,410 This would bring ruin to Troy. 349 00:21:37,727 --> 00:21:40,723 But no one paid any attention. 350 00:21:40,804 --> 00:21:43,961 This was a time of peace and prosperity. 351 00:21:44,041 --> 00:21:47,078 There was no clear and present danger. 352 00:21:47,717 --> 00:21:50,354 The King wouldn't listen to his daughter. 353 00:21:50,833 --> 00:21:53,311 No one would. 354 00:21:53,391 --> 00:21:55,349 When Paris brought Helen home, 355 00:21:55,429 --> 00:21:58,666 the people of Troy celebrated her arrival. 356 00:21:58,746 --> 00:22:00,944 Cassandra was so desperate to prevent the coming 357 00:22:01,023 --> 00:22:03,061 disaster that she attacked Helen. 358 00:22:04,979 --> 00:22:07,457 Cassandra knew that the Greeks would seek revenge 359 00:22:07,537 --> 00:22:10,255 against the Trojans, and that they would be victorious. 360 00:22:11,253 --> 00:22:14,051 She foretold the defeat of her father's army, 361 00:22:14,130 --> 00:22:16,009 and the sacking of Troy by the Greeks. 362 00:22:17,966 --> 00:22:20,244 And the Greeks did come, 363 00:22:20,324 --> 00:22:22,361 just as Cassandra knew they would. 364 00:22:23,281 --> 00:22:26,877 But even after years of warfare, Troy still stood. 365 00:22:29,555 --> 00:22:30,993 When the Greeks retreated, 366 00:22:31,073 --> 00:22:33,590 boarding their ships and sailing out of the harbor, 367 00:22:33,670 --> 00:22:36,308 there must have been a sigh of relief among the few 368 00:22:36,387 --> 00:22:38,186 who wondered if there was 369 00:22:38,265 --> 00:22:40,983 something to Cassandra's dire predictions. 370 00:22:42,302 --> 00:22:46,138 But what about that enormous wooden horse? 371 00:22:46,217 --> 00:22:48,775 A Trojan platoon was sent to investigate. 372 00:22:49,094 --> 00:22:51,971 They found a single Greek soldier. 373 00:22:52,332 --> 00:22:54,808 A man named Sinon. 374 00:22:54,889 --> 00:22:57,565 The Trojans asked Sinon, "What's going on?" 375 00:22:58,206 --> 00:23:01,003 He told them that a King of the Greeks had wanted to offer 376 00:23:01,083 --> 00:23:03,200 him up as a human sacrifice. 377 00:23:03,600 --> 00:23:05,478 So he'd stayed hidden until his brothers 378 00:23:05,558 --> 00:23:07,676 departed for home. 379 00:23:07,995 --> 00:23:10,233 And that colossal wooden horse? 380 00:23:10,313 --> 00:23:13,789 Sinon told them that it was an offering for the goddess Athena. 381 00:23:14,748 --> 00:23:17,146 How wonderful, the Trojans thought. 382 00:23:17,226 --> 00:23:20,782 The horse was the ancient symbol of their city. 383 00:23:20,862 --> 00:23:23,579 Why not move it inside the gates and keep it as a trophy? 384 00:23:25,059 --> 00:23:29,015 Sinon laughed, and told them that the Greeks had said it was way too big 385 00:23:29,093 --> 00:23:31,571 and heavy for weaklings like the Trojans to move. 386 00:23:32,691 --> 00:23:35,168 "Let them stare at it all day and be ashamed about 387 00:23:35,247 --> 00:23:36,726 how feeble they are." 388 00:24:15,526 --> 00:24:17,284 The Trojans were terrified that Cassandra's 389 00:24:17,365 --> 00:24:21,001 attempt at arson would enrage the goddess Athena, 390 00:24:21,441 --> 00:24:24,198 and bring her wrath down upon the city. 391 00:24:41,940 --> 00:24:43,978 Once the invaders gave the signal, 392 00:24:44,057 --> 00:24:46,136 the ships of the Greek navy that had been waiting out of 393 00:24:46,215 --> 00:24:48,972 sight offshore commenced their attack on Troy. 394 00:25:24,576 --> 00:25:26,695 Apollo had had his fun. 395 00:25:27,014 --> 00:25:30,211 Cassandra's grim prophecies had gone unheeded, 396 00:25:30,691 --> 00:25:33,727 and now it was too late for Troy. 397 00:25:45,036 --> 00:25:48,432 For Cassandra, knowing was a curse. 398 00:25:49,151 --> 00:25:52,108 But it can also be the greatest of blessings. 399 00:25:53,867 --> 00:25:55,984 Let me tell you another story. 400 00:25:57,463 --> 00:26:00,820 Once upon a time, there were no refrigerators. 401 00:26:13,247 --> 00:26:16,324 It used to be hard to keep food from spoiling in the summertime. 402 00:26:17,323 --> 00:26:18,921 There was a person called the "iceman." 403 00:26:20,080 --> 00:26:22,677 He would come to your house and sell you a big block of ice. 404 00:26:24,316 --> 00:26:27,472 You'd keep it in something called an "icebox" to preserve 405 00:26:27,553 --> 00:26:29,351 the kinds of food that spoil quickly. 406 00:26:31,110 --> 00:26:34,345 But that was a drag because the ice kept melting. 407 00:26:34,425 --> 00:26:37,023 It would drip all over the floor. 408 00:26:37,103 --> 00:26:39,621 So somebody thought up another way to keep food cold. 409 00:26:40,700 --> 00:26:45,095 It was a gas powered system that used ammonia or sulfur dioxide as a coolant. 410 00:26:46,414 --> 00:26:48,012 No more lugging blocks of ice. 411 00:26:49,131 --> 00:26:50,889 What could be bad about that? 412 00:26:51,648 --> 00:26:53,686 The chemicals were not only poisonous, 413 00:26:53,766 --> 00:26:56,164 they smelled terrible and there were leaks. 414 00:26:59,081 --> 00:27:00,799 A substitute coolant was badly needed. 415 00:27:01,718 --> 00:27:04,235 One that would circulate inside the refrigerator, 416 00:27:04,315 --> 00:27:06,513 but would not poison anyone if the refrigerator leaked, 417 00:27:07,553 --> 00:27:09,510 or pose a danger if it was sent to the junkyard. 418 00:27:12,188 --> 00:27:14,545 Something that wouldn't make you sick, 419 00:27:14,625 --> 00:27:16,902 wouldn't burn your eyes, or attract bugs, 420 00:27:16,983 --> 00:27:18,540 or even bother the cat. 421 00:27:19,779 --> 00:27:23,096 But in all of nature, no such material seemed to exist. 422 00:27:25,054 --> 00:27:27,292 So chemists in the United States invented a 423 00:27:27,372 --> 00:27:29,130 class of molecules. 424 00:27:29,210 --> 00:27:31,967 Little collections of even tinier things called atoms, 425 00:27:32,726 --> 00:27:34,924 that had never existed on Earth before. 426 00:27:36,163 --> 00:27:38,640 They called them chlorofluorocarbons, 427 00:27:39,040 --> 00:27:42,516 or CFCs, because they were made up of one or more carbon 428 00:27:42,596 --> 00:27:45,273 atoms and some chlorine and/or fluorine atoms. 429 00:27:47,392 --> 00:27:49,630 These new molecules were wildly successful, 430 00:27:50,508 --> 00:27:52,866 far exceeding the expectations of their inventors. 431 00:28:07,052 --> 00:28:10,009 Not only did CFCs become the chief coolant in refrigerators, 432 00:28:10,888 --> 00:28:13,565 but also in air conditioners. 433 00:28:13,645 --> 00:28:15,882 There were so many things you could do with CFCs. 434 00:28:17,401 --> 00:28:20,558 People used them to propel great fluffy mounds of shaving cream. 435 00:28:23,196 --> 00:28:26,313 And to protect your hair from wind and rain. 436 00:28:28,270 --> 00:28:31,147 It was also the propellant that made fire extinguishers 437 00:28:31,227 --> 00:28:33,465 and spray paint cans so much fun. 438 00:28:34,743 --> 00:28:36,661 It was good for foam insulation, 439 00:28:36,981 --> 00:28:38,939 industrial solvents and cleansing agents. 440 00:28:40,418 --> 00:28:43,614 The most famous brand name of these chemicals was Freon, 441 00:28:44,573 --> 00:28:46,731 a trademark of DuPont. 442 00:28:46,811 --> 00:28:51,167 It was used for decades and no harm ever seemed to come from it. 443 00:28:51,766 --> 00:28:55,123 Safe as safe could be, everyone figured. 444 00:28:55,682 --> 00:28:59,278 Until, in the early 1970s, two atmospheric chemists at the 445 00:28:59,359 --> 00:29:01,436 University of California, Irvine 446 00:29:01,517 --> 00:29:03,634 were studying Earth's atmosphere. 447 00:29:04,514 --> 00:29:07,391 Mario Molina was a Mexican immigrant, 448 00:29:07,790 --> 00:29:09,508 a young laser chemist. 449 00:29:09,588 --> 00:29:12,385 Sherwood Rowland was a chemical kineticist, 450 00:29:12,465 --> 00:29:14,651 someone who studied the motions of molecules 451 00:29:14,663 --> 00:29:16,421 and gases under varying conditions. 452 00:29:18,139 --> 00:29:20,417 He was from a small town in Ohio. 453 00:29:20,777 --> 00:29:23,854 Molina wanted to grow as a scientist. 454 00:29:23,933 --> 00:29:26,251 He was looking for a project that would take him as far 455 00:29:26,331 --> 00:29:28,689 from his previous research experience as possible. 456 00:29:29,608 --> 00:29:30,966 He wondered. 457 00:29:31,046 --> 00:29:33,563 What happens to those Freon molecules when they 458 00:29:33,643 --> 00:29:36,082 leak out of the air conditioner? 459 00:29:36,161 --> 00:29:38,878 This was a time when the Apollo astronauts were still 460 00:29:38,959 --> 00:29:41,595 making regularly scheduled trips to the Moon. 461 00:29:41,916 --> 00:29:44,393 And NASA was contemplating weekly launches of 462 00:29:44,472 --> 00:29:46,431 a space shuttle. 463 00:29:47,229 --> 00:29:51,666 Would all that burning rocket fuel pose a danger to the stratosphere, 464 00:29:52,264 --> 00:29:55,502 that place where Earth's atmosphere meets the blackness of space? 465 00:29:57,300 --> 00:30:00,017 And this is how science works a lot of the time. 466 00:30:00,376 --> 00:30:02,095 You set out to solve one problem, 467 00:30:02,175 --> 00:30:03,733 and you happen on a completely different, 468 00:30:03,813 --> 00:30:05,812 unexpected phenomenon. 469 00:30:08,328 --> 00:30:11,126 Those wonderfully inert, "harmless" CFCs, 470 00:30:11,686 --> 00:30:14,761 the magic molecules of shaving cream and hair spray, 471 00:30:15,561 --> 00:30:18,119 didn't simply vanish when we were done with them. 472 00:30:18,717 --> 00:30:21,915 They had an afterlife at the edge of space, 473 00:30:21,994 --> 00:30:24,792 where they accumulated in the trillions. 474 00:30:24,871 --> 00:30:27,989 They were silently congregating high above the Earth, 475 00:30:28,628 --> 00:30:30,666 and they were up to no good. 476 00:30:32,664 --> 00:30:35,421 Molina and Rowland were alarmed to discover that the 477 00:30:35,501 --> 00:30:39,177 CFCs had thinned the protective layer that shielded 478 00:30:39,257 --> 00:30:42,534 us from the Sun's harmful ultraviolet radiation. 479 00:30:42,613 --> 00:30:44,931 And it was getting worse all the time. 480 00:30:46,370 --> 00:30:48,487 When UV light hits a CFC molecule, 481 00:30:49,606 --> 00:30:52,364 it strips away the chlorine atoms. 482 00:30:52,443 --> 00:30:55,921 Once that happens, the chlorine atoms start devouring 483 00:30:55,999 --> 00:30:58,717 the precious ozone molecules. 484 00:30:58,798 --> 00:31:01,395 It wasn't until our planet developed an ozone layer, 485 00:31:01,474 --> 00:31:03,791 about two and a half billion years ago, 486 00:31:03,872 --> 00:31:07,029 that it was safe for life to leave the ocean for the land. 487 00:31:08,268 --> 00:31:13,902 A single chlorine atom can destroy 100,000 ozone molecules. 488 00:31:19,616 --> 00:31:23,811 CFCs were in everything, and the manufacturers couldn't 489 00:31:23,892 --> 00:31:25,729 imagine a world without it. 490 00:31:26,769 --> 00:31:29,367 The corporate response to this danger was that the 491 00:31:29,446 --> 00:31:31,684 science hadn't been settled. 492 00:31:32,244 --> 00:31:34,841 People had a hard time believing that we had become 493 00:31:34,920 --> 00:31:38,557 powerful enough as a species to endanger life on the planet. 494 00:31:40,036 --> 00:31:42,673 They looked for non-human causes for the loss of the 495 00:31:42,753 --> 00:31:44,431 ozone in the sky. 496 00:31:44,511 --> 00:31:46,908 One Reagan administration official suggested that 497 00:31:46,988 --> 00:31:50,664 everyone just wear more sunblock and put on a hat and sunglasses. 498 00:31:52,862 --> 00:31:55,180 But the scientists pointed out that the plankton, 499 00:31:55,260 --> 00:31:58,057 those tiny plants at the base of the global food chain, 500 00:31:58,137 --> 00:32:01,054 and the larger plants, were unlikely to do so. 501 00:32:02,133 --> 00:32:05,089 Molina and Rowland tirelessly worked to warn the world. 502 00:32:06,848 --> 00:32:09,285 What's the use of having developed a science 503 00:32:09,366 --> 00:32:11,363 well enough to make predictions if, 504 00:32:11,444 --> 00:32:14,759 in the end, all we're willing to do is stand around and wait 505 00:32:14,840 --> 00:32:16,638 for them to come true? 506 00:32:17,516 --> 00:32:19,076 Rowland and Cassandra would've had a lot 507 00:32:19,155 --> 00:32:20,714 to talk about. 508 00:32:20,793 --> 00:32:23,510 But then something amazing happened. 509 00:32:24,510 --> 00:32:26,868 There was a global outcry. 510 00:32:26,948 --> 00:32:30,064 People all over the world got involved. 511 00:32:30,144 --> 00:32:33,221 In the 1960s, the women of the world demanded an end to 512 00:32:33,301 --> 00:32:36,138 atmospheric nuclear testing because they didn't want to 513 00:32:36,218 --> 00:32:38,935 nurse their babies with poisoned milk. 514 00:32:39,335 --> 00:32:42,611 Then, in the '80s, consumers demanded that the corporations 515 00:32:42,691 --> 00:32:45,529 stop manufacturing CFCs. 516 00:32:45,608 --> 00:32:47,727 And you know what, little one? 517 00:32:47,806 --> 00:32:49,564 The governments listened. 518 00:32:49,645 --> 00:32:53,161 CFCs were banned in 197 countries. 519 00:32:53,240 --> 00:32:56,158 That's just about as many countries as there are on this planet. 520 00:32:57,037 --> 00:33:00,233 And that's why this is one danger you can cross 521 00:33:00,314 --> 00:33:02,951 off your worry list. 522 00:33:03,031 --> 00:33:06,348 The ozone layer has been getting thicker ever since. 523 00:33:10,863 --> 00:33:13,781 But what would've happened if Rowland and Molina 524 00:33:13,860 --> 00:33:16,658 hadn't been curious about the stratosphere, 525 00:33:16,737 --> 00:33:19,893 or if their warnings had been ignored as Cassandra's were? 526 00:33:19,973 --> 00:33:22,331 By the time of your 40th birthday, 527 00:33:22,412 --> 00:33:24,290 the ozone would have been all but gone from 528 00:33:24,369 --> 00:33:25,808 the entire planet. 529 00:33:25,887 --> 00:33:27,966 You would never have been able to take your own little ones 530 00:33:28,045 --> 00:33:30,763 out to bask in the sunshine. 531 00:33:32,840 --> 00:33:35,597 The food crops would have completely failed. 532 00:33:35,678 --> 00:33:37,635 The herbivores, those who live off them, 533 00:33:37,716 --> 00:33:39,434 would have died out. 534 00:33:39,514 --> 00:33:42,511 The carnivores would subsist on their corpses for a while, 535 00:33:42,591 --> 00:33:45,268 but ultimately they, too, would be doomed. 536 00:33:47,426 --> 00:33:50,982 If we continue to safeguard the ozone layer, 537 00:33:51,062 --> 00:33:54,618 it will be completely mended by your 50th birthday. 538 00:33:56,177 --> 00:33:58,055 I may not get to see it, 539 00:33:58,136 --> 00:34:00,893 but I have imagined what it might be like. 540 00:34:08,844 --> 00:34:11,601 One last story, little one. 541 00:34:12,001 --> 00:34:13,678 It's about another person who had the power to 542 00:34:13,759 --> 00:34:15,917 foresee the future. 543 00:34:16,636 --> 00:34:20,672 His story remains unknown outside the scientific community. 544 00:34:21,032 --> 00:34:24,228 But even Apollo would've envied his power of prophecy. 545 00:34:25,307 --> 00:34:28,504 He foretold an epic tale of things to come with 546 00:34:28,585 --> 00:34:30,902 astonishing accuracy. 547 00:34:30,981 --> 00:34:35,616 And every one of us, including you, are in his debt. 548 00:34:41,172 --> 00:34:44,367 He was born in a rural part of Japan named Ehime, 549 00:34:45,206 --> 00:34:47,244 which means "Lovely Princess." 550 00:34:47,725 --> 00:34:50,162 A place of unspoiled natural beauty. 551 00:34:51,041 --> 00:34:53,479 But he spent much of his childhood buried beneath the 552 00:34:53,559 --> 00:34:55,637 surface of the earth. 553 00:34:55,716 --> 00:34:59,473 The cruelest war the world had ever seen had forced the boy 554 00:34:59,552 --> 00:35:02,310 and the people of his small town to hide in an underground 555 00:35:02,390 --> 00:35:04,069 bomb shelter. 556 00:35:04,707 --> 00:35:07,025 At first, Syukuro Manabe, 557 00:35:07,105 --> 00:35:11,100 or "Suki," wanted to be a doctor, like his father and grandfather. 558 00:35:15,056 --> 00:35:18,613 He discovered physics and became enchanted by it, 559 00:35:18,694 --> 00:35:21,090 but didn't think he could do the math. 560 00:35:21,929 --> 00:35:25,287 His grades were poor, until he began to concentrate 561 00:35:25,326 --> 00:35:27,643 on the questions that interested him most. 562 00:35:28,643 --> 00:35:32,919 Why is the atmosphere and climate of Earth the way that it is? 563 00:35:32,999 --> 00:35:36,035 He wondered why Earth maintained the same average 564 00:35:36,115 --> 00:35:38,873 global temperature year after year. 565 00:35:39,871 --> 00:35:42,868 What was keeping the planetary thermostat set at that 566 00:35:42,948 --> 00:35:44,986 particular temperature? 567 00:35:45,307 --> 00:35:48,822 Was it possible to take all the variables of the planet's climate 568 00:35:48,902 --> 00:35:50,580 its atmospheric pressure, 569 00:35:50,660 --> 00:35:53,417 cloud cover, humidity, surface conditions, 570 00:35:53,498 --> 00:35:55,655 ocean and wind currents; 571 00:35:55,735 --> 00:35:57,973 and create a climate model for the planet? 572 00:35:59,212 --> 00:36:02,048 One that had the power of prophecy? 573 00:36:02,968 --> 00:36:06,325 Now remember, this was before climatologists in Japan 574 00:36:06,405 --> 00:36:08,482 had any access to computers. 575 00:36:09,522 --> 00:36:12,758 He did these brain-numbing calculations by hand. 576 00:36:17,353 --> 00:36:20,791 In 1958, he was invited to immigrate to the United States 577 00:36:20,870 --> 00:36:22,748 by the US Weather Service. 578 00:36:23,427 --> 00:36:26,024 Five years later, Manabe was given access to 579 00:36:26,105 --> 00:36:28,023 one of the first "super computers." 580 00:36:32,058 --> 00:36:34,496 When the great volume of data about Earth's climate 581 00:36:34,576 --> 00:36:37,373 crashed the entire system, he was mortified. 582 00:36:39,850 --> 00:36:43,527 It took him another four years to assemble the evidence 583 00:36:43,607 --> 00:36:47,123 for a bold and tragic prediction. 584 00:37:08,501 --> 00:37:11,378 There are broken branches on the four-billion-year-old 585 00:37:11,459 --> 00:37:13,537 tree of life. 586 00:37:13,617 --> 00:37:16,852 And this is their monument. 587 00:37:17,173 --> 00:37:20,529 Each hallway memorializes the mass extinctions that 588 00:37:20,609 --> 00:37:25,085 were so widespread that life itself came close to dying. 589 00:37:25,883 --> 00:37:28,601 The first five catastrophes happened a long time 590 00:37:28,681 --> 00:37:30,679 before we got here. 591 00:37:30,759 --> 00:37:35,315 But the sixth is now, and it has our name on it. 592 00:38:02,487 --> 00:38:06,323 Sometimes prophecy comes as a cry from the heart of a Trojan princess, 593 00:38:07,122 --> 00:38:08,361 but it can also be the 594 00:38:08,441 --> 00:38:11,597 dry-as-dust title of a scientific paper. 595 00:38:11,677 --> 00:38:15,553 Thermal Equilibrium of the Atmosphere with a Given Distribution 596 00:38:15,633 --> 00:38:17,912 of Relative Humidity. 597 00:38:17,991 --> 00:38:19,109 Doesn't sound like, 598 00:38:19,189 --> 00:38:21,267 "The sky is falling, the sky is falling!" 599 00:38:21,348 --> 00:38:23,386 But that's what it said. 600 00:38:27,182 --> 00:38:30,738 Maybe this is where we should place our golden spike. 601 00:38:37,291 --> 00:38:39,728 Manabe and his colleague, Richard Wetherald, 602 00:38:39,809 --> 00:38:42,566 predicted how the temperature of the planet would change as 603 00:38:42,646 --> 00:38:45,563 a function of the increased greenhouse gases humans pumped 604 00:38:45,643 --> 00:38:47,721 into the atmosphere. 605 00:38:47,801 --> 00:38:50,518 The scientists foresaw precisely how the looming 606 00:38:50,598 --> 00:38:52,795 catastrophe would unfold. 607 00:38:54,833 --> 00:38:56,511 They saw far. 608 00:38:56,591 --> 00:39:00,307 Into our own time, and beyond. 609 00:39:03,265 --> 00:39:06,422 Some people still claim the science is unsettled, 610 00:39:06,502 --> 00:39:09,618 but if that's so, how was it possible for Manabe and 611 00:39:09,699 --> 00:39:12,296 Wetherald to correctly predict the rise in Earth's 612 00:39:12,376 --> 00:39:15,253 temperature across more than 50 years? 613 00:39:15,333 --> 00:39:17,371 And if it wasn't caused by us, 614 00:39:17,451 --> 00:39:20,407 where was all that carbon dioxide coming from? 615 00:39:20,487 --> 00:39:23,444 The larger community of climate scientists predicted 616 00:39:23,524 --> 00:39:25,762 heightened flooding of coastal cities, check. 617 00:39:25,842 --> 00:39:28,679 The mass death of coral reefs by ocean warming, check. 618 00:39:29,159 --> 00:39:32,275 The increase in intensity of catastrophic storms, check. 619 00:39:32,355 --> 00:39:33,834 Lethal heat waves, 620 00:39:33,913 --> 00:39:37,869 droughts and runaway wildfires of unprecedented magnitude, check. 621 00:39:38,908 --> 00:39:41,706 The scientists warned us. 622 00:39:46,501 --> 00:39:51,017 What about your future, your life, little one? 623 00:40:03,244 --> 00:40:06,121 Your first day of kindergarten was postponed until the 624 00:40:06,201 --> 00:40:09,597 thermometer dropped below the lethal temperature level. 625 00:40:18,069 --> 00:40:20,026 When the wildfires came, 626 00:40:20,107 --> 00:40:23,862 your family was forced to flee with nothing from your childhood home. 627 00:40:33,653 --> 00:40:36,610 Water was the champagne at your wedding. 628 00:41:16,010 --> 00:41:17,688 This doesn't have to be. 629 00:41:17,768 --> 00:41:19,886 It's not too late. 630 00:41:20,206 --> 00:41:23,843 There's another hallway, another future, we can still have. 631 00:41:25,240 --> 00:41:28,397 I promise to get you there. We'll find a way. 51481

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