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Welcome to the planet Earth.
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A world of blue nitrogen skies,
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oceans of liquid water and
more kinds of living things
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00:00:16,549 --> 00:00:19,346
than you can possibly imagine.
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You are the newest page
in its four-billion-year-old
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book of life.
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We're all very young here.
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New, like you, to the
mysteries of the universe.
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We hope someday you
will add to the little we know.
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00:00:37,887 --> 00:00:39,885
I can see a future
for you that is,
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00:00:39,965 --> 00:00:42,722
in many ways,
longer and brighter,
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and more free than any human
generation has ever experienced.
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I also sense danger.
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That's nothing new here.
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It's always been that way.
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To be alive is to be in
some measure of jeopardy.
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Life is dangerous.
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In every generation,
in every time,
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everywhere on Earth.
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Our species, and
our fellow Earthlings,
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have gotten through
the tough times,
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when the prospects
for life looked bleak.
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Somehow, we manage to endure.
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And now, we want to protect you,
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and your 360,000 brothers
and sisters also born on this day.
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I have so much to tell
you about our world.
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Some of these
stories are frightening.
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But don't be afraid.
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We'll find a way.
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Where do I begin?
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So much has happened
before you got here.
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Fortunately, our ancestors
figured out a way to reach all
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the way back in time to piece
together the great story of
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our planet's own childhood.
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And the amazing things
that have happened since.
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It's called science,
and it's your birthright.
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It's hard to believe that all of this
grandeur was once a sea of fire.
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Come, I'll show you.
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This time next year, you'll
have your first birthday.
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That means you will have
completed one whole trip
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around the Sun, which
is what an Earth year is.
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To understand the vast
time scale of the cosmos,
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00:03:35,106 --> 00:03:37,944
and our little world, we've
squished all of time into the
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scale of a single year.
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And that's where we are now.
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On the Cosmic Calendar.
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Every month is a little
more than a billion years,
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every day a little
less than forty million.
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A single hour on this calendar
is almost two million years.
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Earth was born in fire.
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Fires within its seething heart.
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00:04:07,993 --> 00:04:12,669
And great balls of rock and
ice that explode in fiery impact.
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00:04:14,747 --> 00:04:17,464
One was almost as big as Mars,
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and when it struck
Earth, it formed the Moon.
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But not to worry, little one,
because those fireballs were
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part of the chaotic
early solar system.
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In the billions of years since,
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the other worlds swept
free the lanes of their orbits.
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00:04:38,084 --> 00:04:41,799
So our solar system is a
relatively peaceful place now.
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00:04:44,917 --> 00:04:47,354
After its first
half billion years,
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Earth was spinning
faster than it does today.
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The days were shorter,
merely six hours long.
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The Moon was ten times closer,
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and its gravitational grip on the
young planet was much stronger.
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The shores of the land were
battered by the largest tidal
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waves the world has ever known.
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A thousand times greater
than they are today.
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00:05:13,447 --> 00:05:17,003
The infant Earth was
no place for us then.
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The atmosphere was mostly carbon
dioxide, methane, and ammonia,
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a toxic environment
for our kind of life.
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00:05:25,914 --> 00:05:28,352
We don't know what the
climate was like back then,
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00:05:28,432 --> 00:05:30,309
but scientists
reason that the thick,
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00:05:30,390 --> 00:05:33,547
hazy atmosphere trapped
the heat of the Earth and
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00:05:33,627 --> 00:05:35,865
made it scorching hot.
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Another kind of life, tiny
creatures that could shrug off
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the methane and eat carbon
dioxide and sunlight for breakfast,
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found a way to make
a living in the ocean.
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And those scrappy
little cyanobacteria,
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as they're known,
remade the whole planet.
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By gobbling up
the carbon dioxide,
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and giving off oxygen,
they turned the sky blue.
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All that oxygen destroyed
the methane shroud
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that enveloped our planet.
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00:06:06,912 --> 00:06:08,911
And it was cool.
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Not as cool as it is now,
but more like a really hot
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summer day year-round.
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00:06:14,905 --> 00:06:16,983
And then something
wonderful happened.
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The atoms of oxygen that
the tiny creatures in the ocean
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produced began to gather
high above the world in the sky.
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And a new kind of
molecule was made.
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Ozone.
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It created an invisible
canopy against those rays of
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the Sun that were lethal.
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Now, for the first time,
life was free to leave the
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oceans for the land.
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And before long, life seized
these new opportunities.
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A wild variety of shapes and
sizes evolved as adaptations
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to these new habitats.
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And there were ears
and noses and wings.
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I'd like you to meet
a fellow Earthling,
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a very distant
relative of yours.
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You've only been here a day,
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but beetles have been
here for 300 million years.
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And the changes they've
seen on this world...
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Our kind has only been here for
a fraction of that amount of time,
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11:00 on New Year's
Eve of the cosmic year.
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That's when our ancestors
stood up for the first time.
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We call them Homo
erectus for that reason.
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They were no longer forced to
stare at the mud beneath their feet.
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Now, they could look
up and see the stars,
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and their hands were
free to change the world.
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They began to move
around, to explore,
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daring to risk everything
to get to unknown places.
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They were brave.
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And their blood
runs in your veins.
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Some of them explored
the vast continent of Africa.
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Others ranged north,
taking a left turn into Europe.
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There is evidence that they
would later evolve into the
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00:08:23,933 --> 00:08:26,572
lost people we
call Neanderthals.
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We have no idea what
they called themselves,
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00:08:29,888 --> 00:08:32,125
but we named them after
the place in Germany where
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00:08:32,206 --> 00:08:34,363
we first discovered
their ancient remains.
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Another even more
mysterious branch of our family
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took a right turn into Asia.
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And they evolved into
people we call the Denisovans.
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But you and I,
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and all our other human
brothers and sisters,
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were mainly descended
from the people who stayed in
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00:08:53,384 --> 00:08:56,101
Africa for another
million and a half years.
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Sure, most of us have a little blood
from the other branches of the family,
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but we are mostly
the children of Africa.
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To see how our kind
spread out around the planet,
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we have to go even
closer to midnight.
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11:55.
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Or about 150,000 years ago.
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It is now a minute
and a half to midnight.
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Until about 40,000 years ago,
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our Neanderthal relatives
lived very much as we did.
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They had bigger
brains than we do,
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00:09:35,781 --> 00:09:37,219
and were brawnier,
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but they did many of the things
that we think of as being human.
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Most of us still carry some tiny
portion of their genes inside us.
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But there are no more
living Neanderthals today.
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00:09:51,805 --> 00:09:53,443
Nor are there any
of our other cousins,
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the Denisovans.
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When this happens, when
a whole species vanishes...
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we call it extinction.
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00:10:03,193 --> 00:10:07,229
It's the end of a road that
began four billion years ago
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with the origin of life.
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00:10:12,743 --> 00:10:14,781
We don't know why they died out.
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00:10:15,260 --> 00:10:17,858
We do know that they never
ranged beyond the ocean
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coastlines of their environment.
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00:10:20,456 --> 00:10:24,051
Maybe our hominid cousins
were just a bit more contented,
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00:10:24,132 --> 00:10:27,129
less anxious and more
at peace than we are.
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00:10:28,047 --> 00:10:30,764
Maybe it's a restlessness
that prods us humans to
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00:10:30,845 --> 00:10:32,682
choose the unknown.
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Some powerful force
moved our ancestors to daring
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feats of courage.
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They crossed great oceans with
no idea of what lay on the other side,
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carrying our people to
every continent on Earth.
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And even to the Moon.
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00:10:49,785 --> 00:10:51,903
By the last second
of the cosmic year,
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there was no place on Earth
that we had left untouched.
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We became the first species
to remake the planet since the
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one-celled cyanobacteria
did billions of years ago.
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00:11:06,368 --> 00:11:09,804
To change the oceans, the
land and the atmosphere.
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00:11:11,244 --> 00:11:15,519
And these changes have
led to a new mass extinction.
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00:11:15,599 --> 00:11:18,356
The scientific community
has looked at the evidence,
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and decided our age
needs a new name.
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The Anthropocene.
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"Anthropo" from
the Greek word for
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"Human" and "Cene" the
Greek word for "Recent."
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It reflects our global impact
on the environment and
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the life it sustains.
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There's disagreement
about when it began,
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and nobody knows
how it will turn out.
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Happy New Year, little one.
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Welcome to the Anthropocene.
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I see a great future
for you, little one.
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But a shadow hangs over it.
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We're not exactly sure
when the darkening began.
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00:12:04,230 --> 00:12:07,707
When did we become a force
of nature, altering the skies,
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00:12:08,505 --> 00:12:10,783
the seas and the
land of the planet?
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00:12:12,021 --> 00:12:14,859
When did the age of
the Anthropocene begin?
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00:12:15,818 --> 00:12:18,335
Some would say that it
started in places like this one,
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00:12:19,175 --> 00:12:21,452
more than 10,000 years ago.
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Did our ancestors paint
these images of mammoths and
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saber-tooth tigers and giant
sloths to somehow keep their
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00:12:29,484 --> 00:12:32,961
memory alive after
slaughtering the last of them?
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00:12:35,118 --> 00:12:37,716
Human-caused
extinction is nothing new.
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00:12:38,195 --> 00:12:40,673
But we can't really
blame our ancestors.
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00:12:40,792 --> 00:12:43,351
How could they know
that this or that kill meant
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00:12:43,430 --> 00:12:46,387
the end of an entire species?
194
00:12:47,307 --> 00:12:50,382
I wonder, maybe the
Anthropocene started with the
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00:12:50,463 --> 00:12:53,379
first seed that was
planted in the ground,
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00:12:53,460 --> 00:12:56,217
and the agricultural
revolution that followed.
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00:12:56,857 --> 00:12:59,894
Before that time, the world
had twice as many trees to
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00:12:59,973 --> 00:13:03,610
convert the Earth's
carbon dioxide into oxygen.
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00:13:03,690 --> 00:13:05,648
With the invention
of agriculture,
200
00:13:05,727 --> 00:13:09,683
our ancestors stopped
wandering to settle down into
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00:13:09,763 --> 00:13:11,641
farms and cities.
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00:13:17,116 --> 00:13:19,953
This is Çatalhöyük.
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00:13:20,033 --> 00:13:22,270
It was one of
the earliest cities.
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00:13:22,989 --> 00:13:26,106
This is how it looked
about 9,000 years ago.
205
00:13:26,747 --> 00:13:30,742
The great move indoors
changed our relationship to nature.
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00:13:31,422 --> 00:13:33,979
Those hearths, those
fires that warmed the small
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00:13:34,058 --> 00:13:36,017
dwellings of our ancestors...
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00:13:36,097 --> 00:13:38,215
were they the beginning?
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00:13:38,853 --> 00:13:41,251
The smoke from those
small fires did little to
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00:13:41,330 --> 00:13:43,089
alter the atmosphere.
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00:13:43,169 --> 00:13:44,768
But over thousands of years,
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00:13:44,848 --> 00:13:46,886
our numbers grew exponentially,
213
00:13:47,365 --> 00:13:49,563
until we were cranking
out enough carbon dioxide
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00:13:49,643 --> 00:13:52,640
into the atmosphere to
warm the whole world.
215
00:13:54,518 --> 00:13:56,516
Did the Anthropocene begin with
216
00:13:56,595 --> 00:13:58,674
the domestication of animals?
217
00:13:59,073 --> 00:14:02,390
Cattle convert wild
grasses into methane,
218
00:14:02,469 --> 00:14:04,828
another gas that
changes the climate.
219
00:14:04,907 --> 00:14:08,063
It happens inside them when
they're digesting their meals.
220
00:14:08,144 --> 00:14:09,702
But nobody would
figure this out until the
221
00:14:09,783 --> 00:14:11,701
modern scientific era.
222
00:14:12,380 --> 00:14:15,137
How could a few head
of cattle do any harm,
223
00:14:15,217 --> 00:14:17,814
let alone change
Earth so radically?
224
00:14:18,693 --> 00:14:21,050
Our ancestors wanted
to feed their families,
225
00:14:21,131 --> 00:14:23,568
and make sure that the little
ones would not go hungry.
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00:14:24,767 --> 00:14:26,605
That they would live.
227
00:14:28,843 --> 00:14:31,400
In China, around
4,000 years ago,
228
00:14:31,480 --> 00:14:34,357
a world-changing
discovery was made.
229
00:14:34,437 --> 00:14:37,354
There were rocks that you
could burn for fuel to drive
230
00:14:37,434 --> 00:14:39,513
away the cold and the damp.
231
00:14:40,670 --> 00:14:43,908
These rocks were actually the
carbon remains of plants and
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00:14:43,987 --> 00:14:46,865
trees that had died hundreds
of millions of years before,
233
00:14:47,903 --> 00:14:50,380
and lay buried in the earth.
234
00:14:50,821 --> 00:14:54,297
Was the discovery of coal the
beginning of the Anthropocene?
235
00:14:55,056 --> 00:14:58,373
Coal became increasingly
important to power forges and
236
00:14:58,452 --> 00:15:00,531
foundries and homes.
237
00:15:01,889 --> 00:15:05,725
Or did the Anthropocene really
get going about 1,000 years later,
238
00:15:06,165 --> 00:15:09,522
when people all over
Asia began to grow rice?
239
00:15:10,321 --> 00:15:11,959
This ingenious technique,
240
00:15:12,039 --> 00:15:15,076
which involves transplanting
seedlings into flooded paddies,
241
00:15:15,715 --> 00:15:18,033
is called "Puddling."
242
00:15:18,112 --> 00:15:20,949
There was no way for these
hardworking farmers to know
243
00:15:21,030 --> 00:15:23,588
that this particular
method of growing rice,
244
00:15:23,667 --> 00:15:27,103
like the cattle, would someday
produce tens of millions of
245
00:15:27,184 --> 00:15:29,581
tons of methane per year.
246
00:15:30,181 --> 00:15:33,377
The flooded soil loses
oxygen, and then tiny,
247
00:15:33,457 --> 00:15:35,735
invisible creatures, microbes,
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00:15:35,815 --> 00:15:38,652
digest the plant matter
and produce methane.
249
00:15:39,451 --> 00:15:43,207
The leaves of the rice plants release
more methane into the atmosphere.
250
00:15:44,526 --> 00:15:47,443
These early farmers had
no way of seeing what was
251
00:15:47,523 --> 00:15:50,040
happening on the
scale of the very small.
252
00:15:50,839 --> 00:15:53,716
Again, they were just
trying to feed themselves
253
00:15:54,037 --> 00:15:56,034
and each other.
254
00:16:00,750 --> 00:16:02,908
There's all kinds of writing.
255
00:16:02,987 --> 00:16:04,826
But this is how time writes.
256
00:16:05,705 --> 00:16:07,662
If you know how to
read time's alphabet,
257
00:16:07,743 --> 00:16:10,819
you can reconstruct events
in the great story of the planet.
258
00:16:11,898 --> 00:16:15,095
The most dramatic passage
in this saga is not written in
259
00:16:15,175 --> 00:16:18,132
the brightest colors,
but in pale white.
260
00:16:19,211 --> 00:16:22,567
This pale white line is
kind of an epic poem.
261
00:16:23,247 --> 00:16:26,004
It tells the saga of
the death of titans,
262
00:16:26,843 --> 00:16:28,562
all over the planet.
263
00:16:28,641 --> 00:16:31,758
This layer of an otherwise
rare metal called iridium,
264
00:16:31,839 --> 00:16:34,596
signifies the end of the
Cretaceous chapter some
265
00:16:34,675 --> 00:16:37,272
66 million years ago.
266
00:16:37,353 --> 00:16:40,869
This is when dinosaurs,
and three quarters of all the
267
00:16:40,948 --> 00:16:44,266
plants and animals
became extinct.
268
00:16:44,585 --> 00:16:46,503
There's a custom
among geologists.
269
00:16:46,583 --> 00:16:48,581
If you find a layer in
the earth that indicates
270
00:16:48,661 --> 00:16:51,658
the boundary of the first or
last time that the fossils of
271
00:16:51,738 --> 00:16:53,416
any species can be found,
272
00:16:53,496 --> 00:16:56,852
you mark it with
a "golden spike."
273
00:16:57,412 --> 00:16:59,650
You drive it into the
rock with a hammer.
274
00:16:59,729 --> 00:17:02,367
If we are living in
the Anthropocene,
275
00:17:02,447 --> 00:17:05,723
the age of human-
caused extinction,
276
00:17:05,803 --> 00:17:09,719
what wall do we drive
our golden spike into?
277
00:17:13,636 --> 00:17:17,111
It's in me, little one.
278
00:17:17,192 --> 00:17:20,469
When I was brand new,
just like you, only a day old,
279
00:17:20,548 --> 00:17:22,985
there were two great
superpowers fighting
280
00:17:23,066 --> 00:17:25,144
over the planet.
281
00:17:25,224 --> 00:17:28,940
They were both willing to
destroy everything to assert
282
00:17:29,019 --> 00:17:31,178
their dominance.
283
00:17:31,258 --> 00:17:35,453
On the very day I was born,
both nations exploded nuclear
284
00:17:35,533 --> 00:17:39,010
weapons in the atmosphere
just to show how strong they were.
285
00:17:40,568 --> 00:17:42,885
And those were only a few
of the thousands that were
286
00:17:42,966 --> 00:17:45,762
detonated over a
period of decades.
287
00:17:46,442 --> 00:17:49,598
The bombs gave off strontium 90,
288
00:17:49,919 --> 00:17:53,515
an atom made unstable
by its excess nuclear energy.
289
00:17:53,595 --> 00:17:56,152
It's called a
radioactive isotope.
290
00:17:56,233 --> 00:17:59,509
It polluted mother's
milk all over the planet.
291
00:18:00,029 --> 00:18:04,624
Mothers nursing babies like
you refused to live with this horror.
292
00:18:04,704 --> 00:18:10,657
They joined together to protest
until a treaty was signed in 1963.
293
00:18:11,257 --> 00:18:13,614
I, and my whole generation,
294
00:18:13,694 --> 00:18:16,491
carry an excess of
another radioactive isotope
295
00:18:16,571 --> 00:18:19,089
in the tissues of our bodies.
296
00:18:19,169 --> 00:18:21,686
It's called carbon 14.
297
00:18:21,766 --> 00:18:25,602
So if I ever lose my mind,
or forget how old I am,
298
00:18:25,683 --> 00:18:28,079
the echoes of those
nuclear explosions on the day
299
00:18:28,160 --> 00:18:31,477
of my birth would
tell you my age.
300
00:18:32,516 --> 00:18:36,352
Does this "golden spike"
inside me signify the beginning
301
00:18:36,431 --> 00:18:38,869
of the Anthropocene?
302
00:18:39,508 --> 00:18:42,345
Is that when it began?
303
00:18:42,745 --> 00:18:44,303
The atmospheric testing ended,
304
00:18:44,383 --> 00:18:46,741
but we just kept on
trashing our home.
305
00:18:46,821 --> 00:18:50,097
All the while knowing that
the day would come when
306
00:18:50,177 --> 00:18:53,014
it would all fall down.
307
00:18:53,094 --> 00:18:54,972
What good is it to know
of a danger if you don't do
308
00:18:55,052 --> 00:18:57,650
anything about it?
309
00:18:57,729 --> 00:19:00,647
Maybe it's better not to know.
310
00:19:00,726 --> 00:19:03,284
Knowing can be a curse.
311
00:19:12,314 --> 00:19:18,029
The stories that live the
longest are those that never were,
312
00:19:18,109 --> 00:19:21,665
and always will be: myths.
313
00:19:22,664 --> 00:19:25,302
Apollo, the
ancient god of light,
314
00:19:25,342 --> 00:19:27,419
was always on the prowl
for attractive humans.
315
00:19:28,858 --> 00:19:31,735
One day, while strolling
the bustling streets of Troy,
316
00:19:31,815 --> 00:19:34,452
a rival city of the
Ancient Greeks,
317
00:19:34,532 --> 00:19:38,208
he spied Cassandra, the
smartest and most beautiful of
318
00:19:38,288 --> 00:19:40,326
the daughters of King Priam.
319
00:19:41,285 --> 00:19:44,083
Apollo fell madly
in love with her.
320
00:19:48,399 --> 00:19:51,555
Apollo usually got his way,
and he was shocked when
321
00:19:51,634 --> 00:19:53,953
Cassandra rejected him.
322
00:19:54,472 --> 00:19:56,590
How could he win her heart?
323
00:19:56,670 --> 00:19:58,788
She lacked for nothing.
324
00:19:58,868 --> 00:20:01,065
And she was happy.
325
00:20:01,385 --> 00:20:04,702
But Apollo was not
so easily dissuaded.
326
00:20:04,782 --> 00:20:07,938
And so he made her
an irresistible offer.
327
00:20:08,657 --> 00:20:11,694
He would grant her
the gift of prophecy,
328
00:20:11,774 --> 00:20:14,691
the ability to see the future.
329
00:20:15,530 --> 00:20:17,568
Cassandra was thrilled.
330
00:20:17,649 --> 00:20:20,325
Knowing what would happen
before anyone else would make
331
00:20:20,405 --> 00:20:22,964
her all-powerful.
332
00:20:23,042 --> 00:20:26,560
But then, Apollo explained to
her what he expected in return.
333
00:20:27,759 --> 00:20:31,114
She would have to
submit to him as his lover.
334
00:20:31,195 --> 00:20:34,432
This was too high a
price for Cassandra.
335
00:20:34,511 --> 00:20:37,948
Apollo's rage took the form
of a cruel and ingenious curse.
336
00:20:38,787 --> 00:20:42,064
He granted Cassandra the
ability to foresee the future,
337
00:20:42,144 --> 00:20:44,701
but condemned her to be ignored.
338
00:21:02,323 --> 00:21:05,200
The Trojans
thought she was nuts.
339
00:21:05,280 --> 00:21:07,478
They contemptuously
referred to her as the
340
00:21:07,557 --> 00:21:09,836
"Lady of Many Sorrows."
341
00:21:10,195 --> 00:21:12,673
Today she would be
dismissed as a prophet of
342
00:21:12,752 --> 00:21:15,069
gloom and doom.
343
00:21:16,109 --> 00:21:19,266
Cassandra saw nothing but
trouble when her brother, Paris,
344
00:21:19,346 --> 00:21:21,623
decided to take
a trip to Sparta.
345
00:21:22,502 --> 00:21:25,181
She alone knew that
when he got there,
346
00:21:25,220 --> 00:21:28,177
he would fall in love
with the King's wife,
347
00:21:28,256 --> 00:21:31,653
a beauty named Helen,
whom he would abduct.
348
00:21:31,734 --> 00:21:34,410
This would bring ruin to Troy.
349
00:21:37,727 --> 00:21:40,723
But no one paid any attention.
350
00:21:40,804 --> 00:21:43,961
This was a time of
peace and prosperity.
351
00:21:44,041 --> 00:21:47,078
There was no clear
and present danger.
352
00:21:47,717 --> 00:21:50,354
The King wouldn't
listen to his daughter.
353
00:21:50,833 --> 00:21:53,311
No one would.
354
00:21:53,391 --> 00:21:55,349
When Paris brought Helen home,
355
00:21:55,429 --> 00:21:58,666
the people of Troy
celebrated her arrival.
356
00:21:58,746 --> 00:22:00,944
Cassandra was so desperate
to prevent the coming
357
00:22:01,023 --> 00:22:03,061
disaster that she
attacked Helen.
358
00:22:04,979 --> 00:22:07,457
Cassandra knew that the
Greeks would seek revenge
359
00:22:07,537 --> 00:22:10,255
against the Trojans, and
that they would be victorious.
360
00:22:11,253 --> 00:22:14,051
She foretold the defeat
of her father's army,
361
00:22:14,130 --> 00:22:16,009
and the sacking of
Troy by the Greeks.
362
00:22:17,966 --> 00:22:20,244
And the Greeks did come,
363
00:22:20,324 --> 00:22:22,361
just as Cassandra
knew they would.
364
00:22:23,281 --> 00:22:26,877
But even after years of
warfare, Troy still stood.
365
00:22:29,555 --> 00:22:30,993
When the Greeks retreated,
366
00:22:31,073 --> 00:22:33,590
boarding their ships and
sailing out of the harbor,
367
00:22:33,670 --> 00:22:36,308
there must have been a
sigh of relief among the few
368
00:22:36,387 --> 00:22:38,186
who wondered if there was
369
00:22:38,265 --> 00:22:40,983
something to Cassandra's
dire predictions.
370
00:22:42,302 --> 00:22:46,138
But what about that
enormous wooden horse?
371
00:22:46,217 --> 00:22:48,775
A Trojan platoon was
sent to investigate.
372
00:22:49,094 --> 00:22:51,971
They found a
single Greek soldier.
373
00:22:52,332 --> 00:22:54,808
A man named Sinon.
374
00:22:54,889 --> 00:22:57,565
The Trojans asked
Sinon, "What's going on?"
375
00:22:58,206 --> 00:23:01,003
He told them that a King of
the Greeks had wanted to offer
376
00:23:01,083 --> 00:23:03,200
him up as a human sacrifice.
377
00:23:03,600 --> 00:23:05,478
So he'd stayed
hidden until his brothers
378
00:23:05,558 --> 00:23:07,676
departed for home.
379
00:23:07,995 --> 00:23:10,233
And that colossal wooden horse?
380
00:23:10,313 --> 00:23:13,789
Sinon told them that it was an
offering for the goddess Athena.
381
00:23:14,748 --> 00:23:17,146
How wonderful,
the Trojans thought.
382
00:23:17,226 --> 00:23:20,782
The horse was the
ancient symbol of their city.
383
00:23:20,862 --> 00:23:23,579
Why not move it inside the
gates and keep it as a trophy?
384
00:23:25,059 --> 00:23:29,015
Sinon laughed, and told them that
the Greeks had said it was way too big
385
00:23:29,093 --> 00:23:31,571
and heavy for weaklings
like the Trojans to move.
386
00:23:32,691 --> 00:23:35,168
"Let them stare at it all
day and be ashamed about
387
00:23:35,247 --> 00:23:36,726
how feeble they are."
388
00:24:15,526 --> 00:24:17,284
The Trojans were
terrified that Cassandra's
389
00:24:17,365 --> 00:24:21,001
attempt at arson would
enrage the goddess Athena,
390
00:24:21,441 --> 00:24:24,198
and bring her wrath
down upon the city.
391
00:24:41,940 --> 00:24:43,978
Once the invaders
gave the signal,
392
00:24:44,057 --> 00:24:46,136
the ships of the Greek navy
that had been waiting out of
393
00:24:46,215 --> 00:24:48,972
sight offshore commenced
their attack on Troy.
394
00:25:24,576 --> 00:25:26,695
Apollo had had his fun.
395
00:25:27,014 --> 00:25:30,211
Cassandra's grim prophecies
had gone unheeded,
396
00:25:30,691 --> 00:25:33,727
and now it was
too late for Troy.
397
00:25:45,036 --> 00:25:48,432
For Cassandra,
knowing was a curse.
398
00:25:49,151 --> 00:25:52,108
But it can also be the
greatest of blessings.
399
00:25:53,867 --> 00:25:55,984
Let me tell you another story.
400
00:25:57,463 --> 00:26:00,820
Once upon a time, there
were no refrigerators.
401
00:26:13,247 --> 00:26:16,324
It used to be hard to keep food
from spoiling in the summertime.
402
00:26:17,323 --> 00:26:18,921
There was a person
called the "iceman."
403
00:26:20,080 --> 00:26:22,677
He would come to your house
and sell you a big block of ice.
404
00:26:24,316 --> 00:26:27,472
You'd keep it in something
called an "icebox" to preserve
405
00:26:27,553 --> 00:26:29,351
the kinds of food
that spoil quickly.
406
00:26:31,110 --> 00:26:34,345
But that was a drag
because the ice kept melting.
407
00:26:34,425 --> 00:26:37,023
It would drip all
over the floor.
408
00:26:37,103 --> 00:26:39,621
So somebody thought up
another way to keep food cold.
409
00:26:40,700 --> 00:26:45,095
It was a gas powered system that used
ammonia or sulfur dioxide as a coolant.
410
00:26:46,414 --> 00:26:48,012
No more lugging blocks of ice.
411
00:26:49,131 --> 00:26:50,889
What could be bad about that?
412
00:26:51,648 --> 00:26:53,686
The chemicals were
not only poisonous,
413
00:26:53,766 --> 00:26:56,164
they smelled terrible
and there were leaks.
414
00:26:59,081 --> 00:27:00,799
A substitute coolant
was badly needed.
415
00:27:01,718 --> 00:27:04,235
One that would circulate
inside the refrigerator,
416
00:27:04,315 --> 00:27:06,513
but would not poison anyone
if the refrigerator leaked,
417
00:27:07,553 --> 00:27:09,510
or pose a danger if it
was sent to the junkyard.
418
00:27:12,188 --> 00:27:14,545
Something that
wouldn't make you sick,
419
00:27:14,625 --> 00:27:16,902
wouldn't burn your
eyes, or attract bugs,
420
00:27:16,983 --> 00:27:18,540
or even bother the cat.
421
00:27:19,779 --> 00:27:23,096
But in all of nature, no such
material seemed to exist.
422
00:27:25,054 --> 00:27:27,292
So chemists in the
United States invented a
423
00:27:27,372 --> 00:27:29,130
class of molecules.
424
00:27:29,210 --> 00:27:31,967
Little collections of even
tinier things called atoms,
425
00:27:32,726 --> 00:27:34,924
that had never
existed on Earth before.
426
00:27:36,163 --> 00:27:38,640
They called them
chlorofluorocarbons,
427
00:27:39,040 --> 00:27:42,516
or CFCs, because they were
made up of one or more carbon
428
00:27:42,596 --> 00:27:45,273
atoms and some chlorine
and/or fluorine atoms.
429
00:27:47,392 --> 00:27:49,630
These new molecules
were wildly successful,
430
00:27:50,508 --> 00:27:52,866
far exceeding the
expectations of their inventors.
431
00:28:07,052 --> 00:28:10,009
Not only did CFCs become
the chief coolant in refrigerators,
432
00:28:10,888 --> 00:28:13,565
but also in air conditioners.
433
00:28:13,645 --> 00:28:15,882
There were so many things
you could do with CFCs.
434
00:28:17,401 --> 00:28:20,558
People used them to propel great
fluffy mounds of shaving cream.
435
00:28:23,196 --> 00:28:26,313
And to protect your
hair from wind and rain.
436
00:28:28,270 --> 00:28:31,147
It was also the propellant
that made fire extinguishers
437
00:28:31,227 --> 00:28:33,465
and spray paint
cans so much fun.
438
00:28:34,743 --> 00:28:36,661
It was good for foam insulation,
439
00:28:36,981 --> 00:28:38,939
industrial solvents
and cleansing agents.
440
00:28:40,418 --> 00:28:43,614
The most famous brand name
of these chemicals was Freon,
441
00:28:44,573 --> 00:28:46,731
a trademark of DuPont.
442
00:28:46,811 --> 00:28:51,167
It was used for decades and no
harm ever seemed to come from it.
443
00:28:51,766 --> 00:28:55,123
Safe as safe could
be, everyone figured.
444
00:28:55,682 --> 00:28:59,278
Until, in the early 1970s, two
atmospheric chemists at the
445
00:28:59,359 --> 00:29:01,436
University of California, Irvine
446
00:29:01,517 --> 00:29:03,634
were studying
Earth's atmosphere.
447
00:29:04,514 --> 00:29:07,391
Mario Molina was a
Mexican immigrant,
448
00:29:07,790 --> 00:29:09,508
a young laser chemist.
449
00:29:09,588 --> 00:29:12,385
Sherwood Rowland
was a chemical kineticist,
450
00:29:12,465 --> 00:29:14,651
someone who studied
the motions of molecules
451
00:29:14,663 --> 00:29:16,421
and gases under
varying conditions.
452
00:29:18,139 --> 00:29:20,417
He was from a
small town in Ohio.
453
00:29:20,777 --> 00:29:23,854
Molina wanted to
grow as a scientist.
454
00:29:23,933 --> 00:29:26,251
He was looking for a project
that would take him as far
455
00:29:26,331 --> 00:29:28,689
from his previous research
experience as possible.
456
00:29:29,608 --> 00:29:30,966
He wondered.
457
00:29:31,046 --> 00:29:33,563
What happens to those
Freon molecules when they
458
00:29:33,643 --> 00:29:36,082
leak out of the air conditioner?
459
00:29:36,161 --> 00:29:38,878
This was a time when the
Apollo astronauts were still
460
00:29:38,959 --> 00:29:41,595
making regularly
scheduled trips to the Moon.
461
00:29:41,916 --> 00:29:44,393
And NASA was contemplating
weekly launches of
462
00:29:44,472 --> 00:29:46,431
a space shuttle.
463
00:29:47,229 --> 00:29:51,666
Would all that burning rocket fuel
pose a danger to the stratosphere,
464
00:29:52,264 --> 00:29:55,502
that place where Earth's atmosphere
meets the blackness of space?
465
00:29:57,300 --> 00:30:00,017
And this is how science
works a lot of the time.
466
00:30:00,376 --> 00:30:02,095
You set out to
solve one problem,
467
00:30:02,175 --> 00:30:03,733
and you happen on
a completely different,
468
00:30:03,813 --> 00:30:05,812
unexpected phenomenon.
469
00:30:08,328 --> 00:30:11,126
Those wonderfully
inert, "harmless" CFCs,
470
00:30:11,686 --> 00:30:14,761
the magic molecules of
shaving cream and hair spray,
471
00:30:15,561 --> 00:30:18,119
didn't simply vanish when
we were done with them.
472
00:30:18,717 --> 00:30:21,915
They had an afterlife
at the edge of space,
473
00:30:21,994 --> 00:30:24,792
where they accumulated
in the trillions.
474
00:30:24,871 --> 00:30:27,989
They were silently congregating
high above the Earth,
475
00:30:28,628 --> 00:30:30,666
and they were up to no good.
476
00:30:32,664 --> 00:30:35,421
Molina and Rowland were
alarmed to discover that the
477
00:30:35,501 --> 00:30:39,177
CFCs had thinned the
protective layer that shielded
478
00:30:39,257 --> 00:30:42,534
us from the Sun's
harmful ultraviolet radiation.
479
00:30:42,613 --> 00:30:44,931
And it was getting
worse all the time.
480
00:30:46,370 --> 00:30:48,487
When UV light hits
a CFC molecule,
481
00:30:49,606 --> 00:30:52,364
it strips away the
chlorine atoms.
482
00:30:52,443 --> 00:30:55,921
Once that happens, the
chlorine atoms start devouring
483
00:30:55,999 --> 00:30:58,717
the precious ozone molecules.
484
00:30:58,798 --> 00:31:01,395
It wasn't until our planet
developed an ozone layer,
485
00:31:01,474 --> 00:31:03,791
about two and a
half billion years ago,
486
00:31:03,872 --> 00:31:07,029
that it was safe for life to
leave the ocean for the land.
487
00:31:08,268 --> 00:31:13,902
A single chlorine atom can
destroy 100,000 ozone molecules.
488
00:31:19,616 --> 00:31:23,811
CFCs were in everything,
and the manufacturers couldn't
489
00:31:23,892 --> 00:31:25,729
imagine a world without it.
490
00:31:26,769 --> 00:31:29,367
The corporate response
to this danger was that the
491
00:31:29,446 --> 00:31:31,684
science hadn't been settled.
492
00:31:32,244 --> 00:31:34,841
People had a hard time
believing that we had become
493
00:31:34,920 --> 00:31:38,557
powerful enough as a species
to endanger life on the planet.
494
00:31:40,036 --> 00:31:42,673
They looked for non-human
causes for the loss of the
495
00:31:42,753 --> 00:31:44,431
ozone in the sky.
496
00:31:44,511 --> 00:31:46,908
One Reagan administration
official suggested that
497
00:31:46,988 --> 00:31:50,664
everyone just wear more sunblock
and put on a hat and sunglasses.
498
00:31:52,862 --> 00:31:55,180
But the scientists pointed
out that the plankton,
499
00:31:55,260 --> 00:31:58,057
those tiny plants at the
base of the global food chain,
500
00:31:58,137 --> 00:32:01,054
and the larger plants,
were unlikely to do so.
501
00:32:02,133 --> 00:32:05,089
Molina and Rowland tirelessly
worked to warn the world.
502
00:32:06,848 --> 00:32:09,285
What's the use of having
developed a science
503
00:32:09,366 --> 00:32:11,363
well enough to
make predictions if,
504
00:32:11,444 --> 00:32:14,759
in the end, all we're willing
to do is stand around and wait
505
00:32:14,840 --> 00:32:16,638
for them to come true?
506
00:32:17,516 --> 00:32:19,076
Rowland and Cassandra
would've had a lot
507
00:32:19,155 --> 00:32:20,714
to talk about.
508
00:32:20,793 --> 00:32:23,510
But then something
amazing happened.
509
00:32:24,510 --> 00:32:26,868
There was a global outcry.
510
00:32:26,948 --> 00:32:30,064
People all over the
world got involved.
511
00:32:30,144 --> 00:32:33,221
In the 1960s, the women of
the world demanded an end to
512
00:32:33,301 --> 00:32:36,138
atmospheric nuclear testing
because they didn't want to
513
00:32:36,218 --> 00:32:38,935
nurse their babies
with poisoned milk.
514
00:32:39,335 --> 00:32:42,611
Then, in the '80s, consumers
demanded that the corporations
515
00:32:42,691 --> 00:32:45,529
stop manufacturing CFCs.
516
00:32:45,608 --> 00:32:47,727
And you know what, little one?
517
00:32:47,806 --> 00:32:49,564
The governments listened.
518
00:32:49,645 --> 00:32:53,161
CFCs were banned
in 197 countries.
519
00:32:53,240 --> 00:32:56,158
That's just about as many
countries as there are on this planet.
520
00:32:57,037 --> 00:33:00,233
And that's why this is
one danger you can cross
521
00:33:00,314 --> 00:33:02,951
off your worry list.
522
00:33:03,031 --> 00:33:06,348
The ozone layer has been
getting thicker ever since.
523
00:33:10,863 --> 00:33:13,781
But what would've happened
if Rowland and Molina
524
00:33:13,860 --> 00:33:16,658
hadn't been curious
about the stratosphere,
525
00:33:16,737 --> 00:33:19,893
or if their warnings had been
ignored as Cassandra's were?
526
00:33:19,973 --> 00:33:22,331
By the time of
your 40th birthday,
527
00:33:22,412 --> 00:33:24,290
the ozone would have
been all but gone from
528
00:33:24,369 --> 00:33:25,808
the entire planet.
529
00:33:25,887 --> 00:33:27,966
You would never have been
able to take your own little ones
530
00:33:28,045 --> 00:33:30,763
out to bask in the sunshine.
531
00:33:32,840 --> 00:33:35,597
The food crops would
have completely failed.
532
00:33:35,678 --> 00:33:37,635
The herbivores,
those who live off them,
533
00:33:37,716 --> 00:33:39,434
would have died out.
534
00:33:39,514 --> 00:33:42,511
The carnivores would subsist
on their corpses for a while,
535
00:33:42,591 --> 00:33:45,268
but ultimately they,
too, would be doomed.
536
00:33:47,426 --> 00:33:50,982
If we continue to
safeguard the ozone layer,
537
00:33:51,062 --> 00:33:54,618
it will be completely
mended by your 50th birthday.
538
00:33:56,177 --> 00:33:58,055
I may not get to see it,
539
00:33:58,136 --> 00:34:00,893
but I have imagined
what it might be like.
540
00:34:08,844 --> 00:34:11,601
One last story, little one.
541
00:34:12,001 --> 00:34:13,678
It's about another person
who had the power to
542
00:34:13,759 --> 00:34:15,917
foresee the future.
543
00:34:16,636 --> 00:34:20,672
His story remains unknown
outside the scientific community.
544
00:34:21,032 --> 00:34:24,228
But even Apollo would've
envied his power of prophecy.
545
00:34:25,307 --> 00:34:28,504
He foretold an epic tale
of things to come with
546
00:34:28,585 --> 00:34:30,902
astonishing accuracy.
547
00:34:30,981 --> 00:34:35,616
And every one of us,
including you, are in his debt.
548
00:34:41,172 --> 00:34:44,367
He was born in a rural
part of Japan named Ehime,
549
00:34:45,206 --> 00:34:47,244
which means "Lovely Princess."
550
00:34:47,725 --> 00:34:50,162
A place of unspoiled
natural beauty.
551
00:34:51,041 --> 00:34:53,479
But he spent much of his
childhood buried beneath the
552
00:34:53,559 --> 00:34:55,637
surface of the earth.
553
00:34:55,716 --> 00:34:59,473
The cruelest war the world
had ever seen had forced the boy
554
00:34:59,552 --> 00:35:02,310
and the people of his small
town to hide in an underground
555
00:35:02,390 --> 00:35:04,069
bomb shelter.
556
00:35:04,707 --> 00:35:07,025
At first, Syukuro Manabe,
557
00:35:07,105 --> 00:35:11,100
or "Suki," wanted to be a doctor,
like his father and grandfather.
558
00:35:15,056 --> 00:35:18,613
He discovered physics
and became enchanted by it,
559
00:35:18,694 --> 00:35:21,090
but didn't think he
could do the math.
560
00:35:21,929 --> 00:35:25,287
His grades were poor,
until he began to concentrate
561
00:35:25,326 --> 00:35:27,643
on the questions that
interested him most.
562
00:35:28,643 --> 00:35:32,919
Why is the atmosphere and
climate of Earth the way that it is?
563
00:35:32,999 --> 00:35:36,035
He wondered why Earth
maintained the same average
564
00:35:36,115 --> 00:35:38,873
global temperature
year after year.
565
00:35:39,871 --> 00:35:42,868
What was keeping the
planetary thermostat set at that
566
00:35:42,948 --> 00:35:44,986
particular temperature?
567
00:35:45,307 --> 00:35:48,822
Was it possible to take all the
variables of the planet's climate
568
00:35:48,902 --> 00:35:50,580
its atmospheric pressure,
569
00:35:50,660 --> 00:35:53,417
cloud cover, humidity,
surface conditions,
570
00:35:53,498 --> 00:35:55,655
ocean and wind currents;
571
00:35:55,735 --> 00:35:57,973
and create a climate
model for the planet?
572
00:35:59,212 --> 00:36:02,048
One that had the
power of prophecy?
573
00:36:02,968 --> 00:36:06,325
Now remember, this was
before climatologists in Japan
574
00:36:06,405 --> 00:36:08,482
had any access to computers.
575
00:36:09,522 --> 00:36:12,758
He did these brain-numbing
calculations by hand.
576
00:36:17,353 --> 00:36:20,791
In 1958, he was invited to
immigrate to the United States
577
00:36:20,870 --> 00:36:22,748
by the US Weather Service.
578
00:36:23,427 --> 00:36:26,024
Five years later, Manabe
was given access to
579
00:36:26,105 --> 00:36:28,023
one of the first
"super computers."
580
00:36:32,058 --> 00:36:34,496
When the great volume of
data about Earth's climate
581
00:36:34,576 --> 00:36:37,373
crashed the entire
system, he was mortified.
582
00:36:39,850 --> 00:36:43,527
It took him another four
years to assemble the evidence
583
00:36:43,607 --> 00:36:47,123
for a bold and
tragic prediction.
584
00:37:08,501 --> 00:37:11,378
There are broken branches
on the four-billion-year-old
585
00:37:11,459 --> 00:37:13,537
tree of life.
586
00:37:13,617 --> 00:37:16,852
And this is their monument.
587
00:37:17,173 --> 00:37:20,529
Each hallway memorializes
the mass extinctions that
588
00:37:20,609 --> 00:37:25,085
were so widespread that
life itself came close to dying.
589
00:37:25,883 --> 00:37:28,601
The first five catastrophes
happened a long time
590
00:37:28,681 --> 00:37:30,679
before we got here.
591
00:37:30,759 --> 00:37:35,315
But the sixth is now,
and it has our name on it.
592
00:38:02,487 --> 00:38:06,323
Sometimes prophecy comes as a
cry from the heart of a Trojan princess,
593
00:38:07,122 --> 00:38:08,361
but it can also be the
594
00:38:08,441 --> 00:38:11,597
dry-as-dust title of
a scientific paper.
595
00:38:11,677 --> 00:38:15,553
Thermal Equilibrium of the
Atmosphere with a Given Distribution
596
00:38:15,633 --> 00:38:17,912
of Relative Humidity.
597
00:38:17,991 --> 00:38:19,109
Doesn't sound like,
598
00:38:19,189 --> 00:38:21,267
"The sky is falling,
the sky is falling!"
599
00:38:21,348 --> 00:38:23,386
But that's what it said.
600
00:38:27,182 --> 00:38:30,738
Maybe this is where we
should place our golden spike.
601
00:38:37,291 --> 00:38:39,728
Manabe and his colleague,
Richard Wetherald,
602
00:38:39,809 --> 00:38:42,566
predicted how the temperature
of the planet would change as
603
00:38:42,646 --> 00:38:45,563
a function of the increased
greenhouse gases humans pumped
604
00:38:45,643 --> 00:38:47,721
into the atmosphere.
605
00:38:47,801 --> 00:38:50,518
The scientists foresaw
precisely how the looming
606
00:38:50,598 --> 00:38:52,795
catastrophe would unfold.
607
00:38:54,833 --> 00:38:56,511
They saw far.
608
00:38:56,591 --> 00:39:00,307
Into our own time, and beyond.
609
00:39:03,265 --> 00:39:06,422
Some people still claim
the science is unsettled,
610
00:39:06,502 --> 00:39:09,618
but if that's so, how was
it possible for Manabe and
611
00:39:09,699 --> 00:39:12,296
Wetherald to correctly
predict the rise in Earth's
612
00:39:12,376 --> 00:39:15,253
temperature across
more than 50 years?
613
00:39:15,333 --> 00:39:17,371
And if it wasn't caused by us,
614
00:39:17,451 --> 00:39:20,407
where was all that carbon
dioxide coming from?
615
00:39:20,487 --> 00:39:23,444
The larger community of
climate scientists predicted
616
00:39:23,524 --> 00:39:25,762
heightened flooding
of coastal cities, check.
617
00:39:25,842 --> 00:39:28,679
The mass death of coral
reefs by ocean warming, check.
618
00:39:29,159 --> 00:39:32,275
The increase in intensity of
catastrophic storms, check.
619
00:39:32,355 --> 00:39:33,834
Lethal heat waves,
620
00:39:33,913 --> 00:39:37,869
droughts and runaway wildfires of
unprecedented magnitude, check.
621
00:39:38,908 --> 00:39:41,706
The scientists warned us.
622
00:39:46,501 --> 00:39:51,017
What about your future,
your life, little one?
623
00:40:03,244 --> 00:40:06,121
Your first day of kindergarten
was postponed until the
624
00:40:06,201 --> 00:40:09,597
thermometer dropped below
the lethal temperature level.
625
00:40:18,069 --> 00:40:20,026
When the wildfires came,
626
00:40:20,107 --> 00:40:23,862
your family was forced to flee with
nothing from your childhood home.
627
00:40:33,653 --> 00:40:36,610
Water was the
champagne at your wedding.
628
00:41:16,010 --> 00:41:17,688
This doesn't have to be.
629
00:41:17,768 --> 00:41:19,886
It's not too late.
630
00:41:20,206 --> 00:41:23,843
There's another hallway,
another future, we can still have.
631
00:41:25,240 --> 00:41:28,397
I promise to get you
there. We'll find a way.
51481
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