All language subtitles for B65B287232A44C0E25137278ED895152_eng

This white wilderness, this
emptiness is the North Pole. I'm

standing in the middle of a
frozen ocean. Beneath my feet

and for over 500 miles in
every direction there are several

meters of ice. But something
significant is likely to happen

here at the North Pole soon.
Chances are that sometime

within the next few decades,
perhaps even as soon as 2020,

there will be open water here for the
first time in human recorded history.

The Arctic and Antarctic are
changing. Enormous masses

of ice that have been frozen
for thousands of years are

breaking apart and melting away.

Ice scientists are going to
extremes to find out exactly

what's going on. For them,
these are exciting times. But the

transformation that's being seen here will
be felt far beyond the polar wilderness.

In this program, I'll be trying
to understand what these

changes mean not just to
the wildlife and people that live

around the poles, but to the whole planet.

I'm starting my journey in the
Arctic, the far north of our planet.

It's still very cold outside by
most people's standards, but

the Arctic has been warming
fast, twice as fast as the rest

of our planet. My first
mission is to find out what effect

that's having on the animals,
although first we have to find

them. It's April in Svalbard.
We're a thousand miles north

the Arctic Circle in search
of the region's top predator.

We need to travel away from the
land and out over the frozen sea.

Over there.

I'm with a Norwegian
team which is giving the

polar bears of Svalbard
their yearly health check.

She's under us now.
Come round for a clean shot.

The team works together to
give an anesthetic injection from

a dart gun without hurting
the bear. It takes tremendous

skill.

Nobody likes to see a
magnificent animal like a polar bear

lolling about unconscious
on the ice, but it's only by

darting them in this way and
keeping check on them year

after year that we can be
sure that we know what is

happening to them and the
population of polar bears as a

whole. Over the last 30 years,
many teams have been seeing

the condition of their
local bears deteriorate,

although not every
bear is suffering.

How much? 96 here. And 102
here. 197. Is that good? It's not

too bad. It's a bit above our
reach, so she's a bear in a

good condition for Svalbard
to be. The trouble is that if

this was underweight, she
would be in trouble, not only from

our own point of view,
but from the point of view of

our cubs, because an
underweight female gives birth to

underweight cubs and
underweight cubs have a great

problem of surviving their
difficult first year in these

circumstances. It can be minus
40 degrees centigrade when

polar bear cubs emerge at
the start of the Arctic spring

from their dens where they were born.

This mother hasn't eaten for
half a year. She and her cubs

need to fatten up fast over
the next few months and their

chances of survival depend on
what's happening beneath their feet.

These polar bears aren't
walking on land. They're

roaming across the
frozen surface of the sea.

And the bear's food lives under the ice.

Ring seals are hunted by
polar bears. In fact, in some

parts polar bears eat almost
nothing else, so it's fairly

understandable that this
little mother ring seal is

looking at me now. She
should be a little apprehensive.

That pup of hers is only
about three or four days old and

the pup won't be able to swim
for another two or three days.

Seals have good reason to
be nervous around their holes.

They need the holes to breathe
when the sea is frozen, but

this makes them easy to find.

Polar bears can sniff out seal
holes even if they're covered in snow.

Spring is the best hunting season.

This mother's found a food
store under the snow that was

probably made by an Arctic
fox. It's a time of plenty now,

but the bear family need
to make the best of it

because the good times
are about to come to an end.

As the weather warms, the
ice beneath the bear's feet starts

to break up and then melt.
And as the ice dwindles, so do

the bear's chances of a successful hunt.

Most of the ice is
lost over the shallow

coastal waters where
most of the seals live.

It's now summer and these
bears have a choice. Take their

chances on the shrinking ice
floes or make for the safety of

the land.

It's a case of sink or swim.

Bears have always gone hungry
in the summer, but the length

of time when there's enough
ice for them to go hunting is

getting shorter and shorter
across much of the Arctic.

This is hitting cubs particularly
hard because they can't

survive for as long without
feeding as their mother. Cubs

that were born underweight
are at the greatest risk.

This mother and her cubs may
well not get another chance at

hunting, but they do have a
meal until the sea freezes again

in winter. There's not much
to eat on land and the fact is

that the longer the cubs have
to wait until the ice returns,

the more likely they are to die.

Longer summers with no
ice are probably the main

reason why many polar
bear populations are dropping.

To help monitor bears
into the future, this female is

being fitted with a radio
collar to track her movements.

It's an extraordinary sensation
to be so close to such a

powerful animal with luck
carrying that collar. She will

have more years to go yet
and be telling us a great deal

about herself and the rest
of the race of polar bears as

they face this very uncertain future.

The future of the ice cover
on the sea isn't just an issue

for the animals. It's a big
concern for the people who live

in the Arctic and travel
across the ice every day.

David Ikakwalu is an Inuit from the village
of Clyde River in the Canadian Far North.

There are very few roads up
here so David and his community

like most Inuit people have
always traveled across the

frozen sea.

Dog sleds are the safest
way to get around because the

dogs feel thin ice underfoot
and won't lead travelers into

trouble.

Old timers like David know the ice as we
know the streets in our local neighborhood.

Every spring cracks have
always formed in the same places

at the same time. It's going
to be big very soon after two

weeks maybe. We'll be
more open. But now cracks are

appearing where they never
did before so David and his

friend Laimiki have taken
on a new job. They are using

special GPS units to record
the position of new cracks or

weak ice.

These findings will be used
by locals for their own safety

but they're also being studied
by ice scientists who want to

predict how the ice will
change in years to come.

The Inuit are keen to know
what the future holds too because

they've seen with their own
eyes the changes that the

scientists have seen from
space. This satellite photo from

1980 shows the Arctic Ocean
at the end of the summer when

ice cover is at its minimum.
Since then there's been a 30%

drop in the area covered by
ice. But these images can't tell

us about changes to the most
important factor, the thickness of the ice.

Measuring thickness across
the whole ocean was beyond

scientists for many years until
help came from an unexpected

source.

The Arctic Ocean is of huge
military importance as it's

the shortest route between
North America and Russia.

Since the late 1950s,
British, US and Russian

submarines have been
patrolling the Arctic Ocean.

But as well as looking out
for enemy activity, they've

also been measuring the
thickness of the ice, critical when

looking for a place to surface.

When scientists got permission
to look at the submarine

crew's records, they
discovered that the ice has been

thinning fast. In fact, it's nearly
halved in thickness since 1980.

Across most of the Arctic Ocean there
are now just a couple of meters of ice.

It's so thin that it could melt
away almost entirely in the

summertime and that includes
the ice at the North Pole. If

current trends continue then
there will be an open ocean

here by summer's end sometime
within the next few decades.

So the days of the Arctic
Ocean being covered by a

continuous sheet of ice seem
to be past. Whether or not

that's a good or bad thing, of
course, depends on your point of view.

Nobody has had a better
view of the changes to the Arctic

Ocean than the people of
Barrow, the most northerly town in

Alaska. The people here have
always survived by hunting on

the frozen sea and they
celebrate this at a festival every

year. The blanket toss was
once the best way to spot distant

animals to hunt, as lifelong
resident Lewis Brower explains.

When we throw ourselves up
into the blanket, you know, you

get that much more of an
awe of seeing further and further

out. So sometimes you'll
jump 15, 20 feet in the air and

hopefully you're being caught
right back into the blanket.

But the old way of life is
under threat. When Lewis was

young the sea stayed frozen
to the horizon until July and

some ice remained offshore
all summer. But now it's breaking

up in June and melting away
completely for two or three

months. I used to go out on
the ice all the time this time

of the year but we can't do
that anymore because there's no

more no more ice. Lewis can
also see that the loss of sea

ice is affecting the animals
he hunts for a living. Since

2007 something very
strange has been happening

on the stretch of
coastline close to Barrow.

Mother walruses, confused
by the lack of ice, are crowding

onto the land with their
pups. This very tight crowding

isn't normal and it's caused many
youngsters to be crushed to death.

Many Arctic animals are
threatened by the changing

conditions and that's also
bad news for the traditional

hunters. But the ice loss could
be good news for some people.

There are trillions of dollars
worth of oil and gas under

the Arctic Ocean but the only
way to get to them until now

has been by building expensive
artificial islands like this.

But if the sea ice goes it
will be much easier to drill for

the huge riches below so
the countries that surround

the Arctic are scrambling
to stake their claims.

This daring attempt by the
Russians to claim the disputed

seabed at the North Pole in
2007 caused fury among the

competing countries and it's
unlikely to be the last such dispute.

The Arctic has never been so important
and not just because of its resources.

The Northwest Passage, a
legendary sea route around the

north of Canada and Alaska,
cleared of ice in the summer of

2007 for the first time since
records began. This promises a

much faster and cheaper
shipping route between the Atlantic

and Pacific Oceans.

And some wildlife could
benefit from an ice-free Arctic too.

Bowhead whales are one of
just a few whales that can live

year-round in the Arctic
because they have no dorsal fin.

This means they can come
up for air in small spaces and

travel easily under the ice.
Their unique body shape used to

mean that the Arctic whales
have the seas to themselves for

most of the year but now some
cousins from down south are

moving in.

Killer whales are now a
much more common sight in the

Arctic. Their tall fins make
it difficult for them to travel

under ice but the longer summers
mean they can travel much

farther north and make the
most of the rich Arctic seas.

For animals and people,
it will be those who

can adapt who will
thrive in a changing Arctic.

But the loss of sea ice isn't
just an issue for the Arctic

because the state of the
ice affects the climate of the

whole planet.

Because it's white, the ice
reflects up to 90% of the sun's

energy. This is called the
albedo effect and it's why we

often see heat haze in the
Arctic even when the air feels cold.

The frozen Arctic Ocean acts
as a huge reflector bouncing

back the sun's heat into space.
Throughout history that has

helped to cool the planet but when
the ice melts it's a different story.

Because sea water is dark
it absorbs most of the sun's

heat. In the Arctic this can
trigger a chain reaction as the

warming water melts more ice
exposing more water to the sun's heat.

This cycle of warming as
huge areas start to absorb rather

than reflect heat is the
main reason why the Arctic, a

region the size of North
America, is warming

twice as fast as
the rest of the Earth.

So melting sea ice is a big
issue but there's another kind

of ice that could have an even
more dramatic impact on our

world. The Arctic is a place
where the Arctic is the most

important in the world.
The ice that is found on land.

This is freshwater ice formed from
thousands of years of accumulated snowfall.

This is the front of the glacier,
quite a small one believe

it or not. Glaciers are like
rivers of frozen freshwater

flowing across the surface
of the land. This one like most

polar glaciers is flowing down
from a vast inland ice sheet

and it's what happens to
those ice sheets that could

radically alter the face of
the planet. The Greenland ice

sheet is by far the largest
in the Arctic. It's two miles

thick in places and six
times the size of the United

Kingdom.

Every summer some of the
surface of the ice sheet melts

forming sapphire blue lakes
of meltwater. More and more of

these lakes have been forming
as Greenland has warmed over

the last 20 years. This lake
has grown over several weeks

and now it's overflowing carving
a deep channel through the ice.

A network of channels
crisscrosses the ice

sheet but many of them
come to an abrupt end.

Huge holes like this can open up quite
suddenly, draining the meltwater away.

Alan Hubbard is a glaciologist
studying the enormous power

of these waterfalls which are
known as moolands. We've got

this amazing mooland going
on here today. The water is

overflowing from the lake
which is beginning to drain. Tons

of water cascading down
this pipe that is effectively

plummeting to the depths of
the ice sheet through over a

kilometer of vertical ice.

Alan is here to study where
the meltwater goes and what

effect it has on the remaining
ice. To do that he needs to

find a mooland that has recently run dry.

Just a week ago there was a
three mile long 10 meter deep

lake here. The weight of
all that water cracked the ice

beneath and the lake drained in
just a few hours with incredible force.

A thousand ton ice boulders
were tossed about like dice.

Alan's team have found
the hole down which the lake

disappeared and they want
to have a closer look. It's not a

job for anyone with a fear of heights.

As you can see it's dry up
here but if you listen you can

hear the thunder of there's
a lot of water entering it at

some depth. Alan wants to
place a sensor deep into the

mooland to discover how
much water is flowing through the

ice.

As they drop they travel back
in time. 30 meters down and

they reach ice formed from
snow that fell 10,000 years ago

in the last ice age.

When this lake drained and
the plug got pulled and the whole

lot flushed down through
here this ice sheet it rose by a

meter as that water accessed
the bed and force jacked up the

ice sheet. So we know that the
water and this whole plumbing

cavity system down here we
know that shoots straight through

the ice and actually hits the
bed of the ice sheet. We've

hit the water, can see the
water now. Great, nice work.

This daring experiment is
measuring how the water flowing

under the ice sheet affects
the speed with which the

glaciers flow from it down
to the sea. The theory is that

the water is acting as a
lubricant so the more water there

is the faster the glacier flows.
To the naked eye, glaciers

don't appear to move at all,
but move they do. These unique

time lapse images were
captured over the last four years.

Through long observations we
now know that Greenland's ice

is flowing down to the sea
twice as quickly as it was 20

years ago. The speed of the
glaciers affects our sea levels

because when they reach
the water they break apart into

icebergs. Occasionally
a real mega-burg is born.

This is the store glacier in May 2010.

This is the store glacier
in May 2010. This is the

store glacier

in May 2010. 75 million
tons of ice that have been

sitting on land for thousands
of years has broken away.

Events like this have
become increasingly common

as Greenland's glaciers
flow faster into the sea.

Every single one of these
icebergs raises the sea level a

small amount. Scientists
monitoring the ice sheet predict

that Greenland might add as
much as a half meter to world

sea levels by the end of the
century, enough to swamp many

of the world's low-lying islands.

99% of the Arctic's freshwater
ice is in Greenland. It's a

staggeringly big ice sheet
but it's just a drop in the ocean

compared to that at the
southern end of our planet.

In Antarctica there is
10 times more ice, by

far the largest
concentration of ice on Earth.

Our exploration of the Antarctic only
began a little over a hundred years ago.

The study of ice retreat
here was unwittingly begun on

an expedition led by the
great early explorer Ernest

Shackleton.

In 1916, after their expedition
boat was crushed and sunk by

ice, Shackleton and two
companions set off to summon help in

a tiny boat.

They sailed over 800 miles
across the Southern Ocean to

the island of South Georgia
on the edge of the Antarctic.

Near starving and dressed
in rags, the three men walked

across the ice sheet at the
center of the island, knowing

there was a wailing base on the opposite
coast where they could summon help.

This team of Royal Marines
is retracing the steps of that

journey in tribute to Shackleton
and his men. But for all

their efforts, they
can't exactly copy the

Great Walk because
the ice is not as it was.

A number of South Georgia's
glaciers were photographed by

Shackleton's cameraman. Frozen
planets saw a dramatic change

when they returned 94 years later.

Most of South Georgia's
glaciers have shrunk since

Shackleton's time, and most
of that has happened since I

first went to the Antarctic 30
years ago. I've been to South

Georgia several times and
seen how greatly the glaciers

there have changed.

This photograph of a glacier
reaching right down to the sea

was taken just six years
before I first visited in 1981. Now

that glacier has retreated by
400 meters away from the beach.

Temperatures in South Georgia
have risen sharply, but the

southern hemisphere's most
dramatic warming has happened a

little further south. In
recent years, stronger winds

blowing over the southern
ocean have brought warmer air to

the 800-mile-long finger
of land that forms the

northern extremity of
the Antarctic continent.

Here on the Antarctic Peninsula,
the changing wind patterns

have driven temperatures up
by nearly 3 degrees Centigrade

over the last 50 years, 10 times the
average rate of the rest of the planet.

The rapid warming is having
a big effect on the bird life.

The daily penguin is the
most southerly nesting of all

penguins. And like the polar
bear up in the north, their

lives are dependent on the
sea ice. A daly spent their whole

lives near ice. These birds
have spent the winter feeding at

the ice edge, but now
it's spring and they've

started a long trek over
the frozen sea towards land.

They're heading for areas of
exposed rock where they gather

to breed in colonies that
can be over 100,000 strong.

But it seems that a daly's
don't find the conditions on the

peninsula to their liking
anymore. 17 years ago, when I was

last in the Antarctic, there
were large colonies of a daly

penguins all along the Antarctic
Peninsula. Now, warming

temperatures have meant less sea ice
and a daly penguin numbers are in decline.

Many colonies have been empty and fast.

It may be that penguins
are starving or it may be that

they're heading south to
colder climes where there's still

plenty of ice on the sea.

But as in the Arctic, while
ice-loving animals are feeling

the heat, animals that like it
a bit more cosy are moving

in.

The bright orange beaks of
gentoo penguins are a much more

common sight on the peninsula
these days. I always used to

know them as residents of
the slightly warmer islands

north of the Antarctic, but
they've moved south in numbers.

They're thought to be
10 times more gentoos

on the peninsula now
than just 30 years ago.

The peninsula has warmed a great deal,
but the same is not true further south.

The Antarctic continent is
smothered by the world's greatest

ice sheet, one and a half
times the size of Australia and up

to three miles thick.

A staggering 75% of the Earth's
fresh water is locked up in this ice.

Global sea levels would rise by
some 60 metres if all this was to melt.

But what chance is there
of that happening here

in the coldest, most
hostile place on Earth?

The ice beneath me up here
on top of the ice cap is so thick

that I am short of breath
simply because of the altitude.

This is midsummer and the
average temperature is some 20

degrees below freezing. I
can tell you it feels much lower

than that. And even the worst
predictions don't suggest that

the air is going to warm
enough to melt the ice. But now

scientists are asking a different
question. Could the speed

at which the Antarctic ice
flows off the land be increased

by a warmer ocean? Where
the ice sheet meets the sea,

scientists are going to
extreme lengths to find out.

Andy Smith works for the
British Antarctic Survey. What we

have here is a one kilogram
of pentelite explosive. We're

going to use this to generate
a shockwave and record

the echoes that come back
from underneath the ice.

Andy is particularly interested
in mapping the underside of

the ice around the coast.
Because here it isn't resting on

land, it's floating on seawater.
So if sea temperatures

rise just a little, it can
be melted from below.

Around the coast of Antarctica,
the glaciers have flowed out

across the sea to form immense
masses of floating freshwater

ice called ice shelves.

These freeze to the land
around them, sticking fast and

acting like bath plugs,
holding back the flow of the

glaciers into the sea.

On the Antarctic peninsula,
a one degree sea temperature

rise has helped to break
apart seven major ice shelves in

the last 30 years. This is
the Larson B ice shelf, three

times the size of Greater
London breaking apart in 2002.

Afterwards, the glaciers
it had been holding

back started flowing
up to six times faster.

In 2008, a much larger ice
shelf at the southern end of the

peninsula started to break
up. It's an enormous event that's

never been filmed before.

Andy Smith is flying down
the peninsula to study this

phenomenon firsthand. We're
flying to a place called Wilkins

Ice Shelf. It's an ice shelf
that over the last couple

of years has showed a very
sudden and dramatic breakup.

The Wilkins Ice Shelf is a
two hour long flight south from

his research base. But Andy
can start to see the evidence of

ice shelf breakup a long way
before he gets there. As we're

heading further south, we can
see more and more icebergs in

the ocean. And most of
the big ones will be ones

that have broken off the
ice shelves in this area.

Once we cross the mountains,
we should be able to see

Wilkins Ice Shelf. And
then it's not far then to the ice

front here where it's collapsing.

As Andy's team reaches
their destination, the scale of

what's been happening sooner
Here, for thousands of years,

an area the size of Yorkshire has been
covered by a sheet of ice 200 metres thick.

But now, over half of
that has broken apart.

Andy has been studying
Antarctic ice for 25 years, but

even he is blown away by
what he's seeing. That is pretty

awesome. That is remarkable.
The edge of the ice shelf has

just kind of disintegrated.
Some of the big pieces look like

they could be a mile or
more in size. It's almost like a

sort of a slow motion explosion.
It all pushes outwards very

quickly.

Every one of these huge
icebergs will slowly drift out to sea.

To study how fast that
happens, Andy needs to get closer

to the action. We're going to
look around and see if we can

find a place where we can
land. But if we can, we'll be able

to put on an instrument that
will help us monitor the big

icebergs that are breaking
off as the ice shelf breaks up.

Landing on an iceberg is
another first for Andy's team.

This satellite transmitter
will help to track

the continued breakup
of this colossal ice shelf.

The remainder of the Wilkins
looks set to break apart soon.

It's the latest ice shelf to
disintegrate in a wave that's

been traveling southwards,
playing a major role in the loss

of ice from the peninsula.

Next in line, and already
weakening in place, is the first

ice shelf to disintegrate.
The only places are the ice

shelves that hold back
Antarctica's gigantic continental

ice sheet. And it would only
take a small corner of this to

slide into the sea to have
major global consequences.

We've only started to see
changes in the Arctic and

Antarctic recently, so it's
hard to predict exactly what

impact these changes will have.
But we can see for ourselves

that these places are changing
and on a scale that is hard

to ignore.

The poles, north and south,
may seem very remote. But what

is happening here is likely to
have a greater effect upon us

than any other aspect of
global warming. If the Arctic sea

ice continues to disappear,
it will drive up the planet's

temperature more quickly.
And the melting ice sheets

could contribute to a sea
level rise of a meter, enough to

threaten the homes of millions
of people around the world's

coasts by the end of the
century. We've seen that the

animals are already adapting
to these changes. But can

we respond to what is happening
now to the frozen planet?

The Ice The increasing
unpredictability of the ice was a

big issue for the frozen planet
team, who spent three years

working on top of it.

Whether on sea, land,
lake or river, the state of

the ice was the first concern
for most filming crews.

Unexpected breakups left many
a cameraman in need of a swift

rescue. Sometimes help came
by boat and sometimes by air.

The North Pole I had a
chance to see the changing ice

conditions for myself when I
visited the North Pole. I flew

with the team to a temporary
camp that is set up every

year in the center of the
frozen Arctic Ocean to support

expeditions to the pole.

The North Pole I had never
visited the North Pole before, so

this was a great highlight for
me. But it was hard going in

temperatures of minus 40, so
as soon as filming finished, we

flew south. Little did we know
that we had made it out just

in time. We got back from the
pole camp last night and I've

just bumped into the Russian
commander, who's just heard

from the camp. And the
news is that a little crack, which

I'd seen in the ice between
our tent and the airstrip, which

was no more than an inch or
so wide, has overnight widened

to 20 meters. Temporary
breakups caused by stormy weather

and strong winds have
happened before, but they've been

getting more and more frequent
over recent years as the ice

has got weaker.

It was only swift action
by the staff that prevented

a lot of valuable
equipment going in the drink.

The biggest concern was
that the ice airstrip might break

apart, but luckily it held and
everyone was able to evacuate

when the weather improved.

The frozen planet team's
clearest demonstration of the power

and unpredictability of breaking
ice came when they went to

film the melting of a frozen
planet. Producer Mark Linfield

and researcher Matt Swarbrick
have travelled to the far

north of Canada.

They've driven through the
vast northwest territory on a

mission to film the moment
when this frozen waterfall breaks

apart.

The breakup, when the
frozen river above the waterfall

thaws and masses of water
start to flow again, can be a

spectacular event. But
predicting exactly when it's going to

break is the big challenge if
Mark and Matt want to get the

best shots.

And they're not the only ones
who want to know. When the

waterfall breaks, it can flood
the town of Hay River just

downstream with millions of
tons of water and ice. Mark is

taking advice from the scientist
Faye Hicks, who has the job

of predicting when the ice
will break. What happens is you

get ice jams form upstream
and they start to dam up the

water and it builds and builds
and builds and that can let

go and that's a much bigger
wave of water than just the

normal flow. So it just depends
upon how dramatically it

unfolds. Faye takes her
research helicopter to monitor the

situation upstream of the waterfall.

Just ten miles upriver, the
ice is starting to break. The

locals are concerned because
huge amounts of water can build

up if these ice chunks dam
the river and that can lead

to devastating flooding in
the town when the dams burst.

Using cameras and sonar to
assess the state of the river,

Faye makes her best guess
of when this breakup will hit the

waterfall just above the town.
So now guys, I think we have

about 48 hours to go. Faye's
prediction of the 24th of April

is exciting news for the team.

Upstream from here, it's
already starting to melt and Faye

thinks that we may only have
another one or two days before

this whole thing goes, which
is almost impossible to imagine

looking at it now, but that's
what she says. With the

breakup seemingly imminent, the
team set up their cameras in anticipation.

Over the next 48 hours, the
weather warms to well above

freezing, but there's no sign
of the breakup. The team waits

and waits and waits. Mark is

concerned that the crew
have to return home soon, so he

heads into town to get the
advice of long-term resident Red

McBrien. We just have to live
with it and take whatever base

of action we can. Red has
had 50 years of witnessing the

power of the river. Well, we're
hoping that she may break

up in two or three days even.
Oh, no, no, no, no. That's too

soon. You think it'll be
longer? Oh, no, no. Boys, you're

looking at seven or eight
days before she breaks of any

significance. And if she
breaks, she can jam and hold up.

She'd be down here probably
around the fifth or sixth of

May. The townspeople are on
tenterhooks, waiting for the big

day, but another week goes by
before anything starts to happen.

Finally, it seems that things
might be happening. We've just

heard some cracks from
upstream, so if we're lucky, we might

get some action. Seven
o'clock, which gives us two hours

light. If it happens at night,
we're going to miss the whole

thing.

Sure enough, the town is
put on red alert that the river

is about to break in the
middle of the night. They've just

called a full evacuation of
the island where we're staying.

If we don't move now, we're
all going to be underwater and

possibly get trapped here for
a few days. The team have to

move out and get up to the
waterfall, hoping that it doesn't

break before it's light enough to film.

Luckily, the sun is up
before the main event begins.

That is a serious amount of
ice coming around the corner.

After weeks of waiting,
sleeping giant of a river, we

thought nothing was going to
happen, and suddenly, look at

this! This is what we're here
for. Unbelievable! Absolutely

unbelievable! Holy ****! How
are you? The team is used to

handling multiple cameras,
but they don't usually have to

dodge. They can even dodge
10-ton ice flows at the same

time. You can see it racing
over at an unbelievable speed.

The power, if you are
here to feel this, it's the deep

rumbling sound of the river.
I can feel it up to my feet.

The power, I just can't imagine.
It has to crush a house in

no time. The team takes
to the air to witness the

destruction that's unleashed.
Huge ice blocks are pushed

downstream on the wave of water
released by the breaking waterfall.

This could devastate the town.

But this year, the townspeople's luck
is in. The town has escaped flooding.

Crucially, the ice blocks
did not dam the river. It's

running free. And the date
of the break-up? 6th of May.

Red's got it right again. I
don't use any of these gauges

and mechanical assistance.
I just go by what I see on the

river as I walk it down. And
I say, I walk it down, I back

and forth every day on the
river, to see what's happening,

and from that I gauge when
it's going to hit here, and what

the situation's going to be
like when it does get here. You

know, when it went this
morning, I said to my students,

guess what the date is. Red
told us it's the 6th of May. And

I'm not surprised because
we've been here a couple times

and that's happened. Ten
days, two weeks out, he just looks

around and goes, 5th of May.
How does he know that? It's

incredible. It's because he
just has lived on this river and

lived this break-up for 50
years. I see scientists on

improving the accuracy of
their predictions all the time,

but in the meantime, the
people of Hay River have a

remarkable guardian. Red,
you were completely right this

year. Are you right
every year? No, I missed

the odd one. Yes.
In 1985, I missed it.

Music