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>> Earth, a unique planet,

restless and dynamic. Continents

shift and clash. Volcanoes

erupt. Glaciers grow and recede,

titanic forces that are

constantly at work, leaving a

trail of geological mysteries

behind. Among Earth's many

geological wonders, there's

nowhere more dangerous than

Mount Vesuvius. It's a volcano

well-known for its violent past.

As witnessed by the remains of

its victims, frozen in time for

nearly 2,000 years. But Vesuvius

is still very much alive, and

only now are its mysteries being

revealed. A new discovery of a

vast magma chamber of

boiling-hot rock beneath

Vesuvius: Just one of many

startling new clues to how the

volcano could threaten one of

Europe's most crowded cities

with a fiery rain of death and

destruction. Unlocking the

secrets of Vesuvius exposes the

awesome forces behind "How the

Earth was made." S02x02 Vesuvius Original Air Date on December 1, 2009

-- Sync, corrected by elderman -- -- for MY-SUBS.com --

The next eruption at Vesuvius

could kill more people than any

other volcano in history.

3 million lives are at risk.

On the west coast of Italy

towering 4,000 feet over the

city of Naples stands Mount

Vesuvius.

>> The death toll will be big,

running into the millions.

So it really is the catastrophic

nightmare scenario that we all

fear.

>> The challenge for geologists

is to figure out what could

trigger Vesuvius' next eruption

and assess how such a potential

horror would unfold. The first

catastrophic explosion would

burst from the ground here, from

yhe depths of the volcano's

2,000-foot-wide crater.

>> Within seconds the whole

thing would be ripped apart.

>> It's the nightmare scenario

that everyone fears. A cloud of

fiery volcanic debris would

blast down the steep sides of

the volcano at 450 miles per

hour, twice as fast as a

formula 1 racing car. Anyone

within 10 miles of the crater

would be caught in the

eruption's death zone. Nothing

could stop this boiling cloud

of ash and rock.

>> You might think that the

people living across the water

there in Naples would be safe

from the volcano. But we know

that that wouldn't be the case.

It moves across the sea, picking

op speed as it goes. Not

walking, but literally running

towards Naples. Imagine the

panic in downtown Naples as this

hot, dark cloud of volcanic ash

and dust descends on the city.

>> There's nowhere to hide.

Men, women, and children are

incinerated.

>> And the temperature's 600,

700, 800 degrees fahrenheit.

I mean, that's enough literally

to boil the blood in your body.

>> Other victims suffocate.

Anyone trapped between downtown

Naples and the volcano is dead.

Volcanologists had always

believed that the city of Naples

itself was safe from Vesuvius.

They thought that even the

volcano's biggest eruptions

couldn't reach further than the

city limits. A belief that was

shattered by new research deep

beneath Angevin Castle in the

heart of Naples.

>> Wow. This is an extraordinary

deposit.

Extending from this level all

the way up to this point,

which makes it about 4 feet

thick.

>> The layer Sheridan has found

is an accumulation of ash that

rained down on the center of

Naples from a massive eruption

in the bronze age, around

1780 B.C.

>> It traveled 10 miles from

the volcano, across the Bay of

Naples to this point.

>> Miles further than any other

previously known eruption of

Vesuvius. Astonished scientists

could not ignore such convincing

evidence.

>> Finding a deposit right in

the center of Naples has changed

the way people think about their

safety from eruptions at

Vesuvius. And people are now

considering that Vesuvius may

truly represent a risk to their

safety.

>> If Vesuvius produced such a

massive eruption once, it can

again. There's a further

monumental-sized piece of

evidence that reveals the

awesome scale of the blast

in 1780 B.C. These are the

3,700-foot-high cliffs named

Somma. It's 4,000 years ago

on Mount vesuvius.

A colossal eruption rips the

volcano open.

Molten rock blasts out of the

cone, emptying out the

underground reservoir that

geologists call the magma

chamber. This continues for

hours until something literally

earth-shattering happens. When

the magma chamber empties past

a critical point, the entire

mountain collapses in on itself

to fill the void below.

The 1780 B.C. eruption was so

massive that it brought down a

mountain and emptied 63 billion

cubic feet of pulverized rock

onto the surrounding

countryside. That's enough to

cover the whole of Manhattan

Island to a depth of 100 feet,

or bury the State of Florida in

almost half an inch of ash.

This mega eruption is now the

blueprint for Naples' worst-case

scenario. It's one of the

factors making Vesuvius the most

dangerous volcano in the world.

And it's why scientists are

racing to prepare for the next

disaster. To investigate what

deadly forces could be unleashed

on the city of Naples,

scientists must understand the

eruptions of its past. And no

explosion is better studied than

the one that destroyed Pompeii,

the Roman city that lay 7 miles

southeast of Vesuvius. In the

year 79 A.D., an eruption killed

25,000 people, one quarter of

the population, and left the

area uninhabitable for

300 years.

>> Behind me here is the very

material which buried Pompeii.

>> The volcanic debris is made

up of ash and an unusual white

rock.

>> Really, first impressions are

that it's really rather light.

And if I get in a nice close

look there, the rock itself is

absolutely riddled with holes.

>> The holes were bubbles of

trapped volcanic gas.

>> This light white rock is

called pumice. Now, pumice is

magma that's filled with

bubbles--filled with bubbles so

much that it'll actually be able

to float, and pumice is the only

rock in the world that can

float.

>> The trapped bubbles show

exactly how the pumice was

formed.

>> The magma beneath the volcano

is a bit like the cola in a

sealed bottle like I have here.

We have liquid and dissolved

gas.

>> If the pressure is released

suddenly, the dissolved gas

explodes out in the form of

bubbles.

>> The bubbles in the cola have

turned it into a froth, and this

frothy mass that's coming out of

the cola is just like in a magma

chamber. When the gas escapes

from the magma, it forms a magma

froth, which violently comes out

the volcanic vent.

>> So the discovery of pumice

proves that the volcano created

magma foam, and that can only

mean one thing: The eruption

must've involved a major

explosion.

>> The explosion sent the

magmatic foam and ash over

17 miles into the atmosphere.

This is twice the height of your

average cruising aircraft.

>> Amazingly, there is a

surviving eyewitness account of

the disaster written 2,000 years

ago. Every detail of the

eruption was noted by the

17-year-old Pliny the Younger

who was, in effect, one of the

world's first volcanologists.

>> Pliny, a naturalist, produced

the first scientific recording

of a complete volcanic sequence.

He writes, "a cloud was forming.

its appearance and shape would

best be expressed as being that

of an umbrella pine," similar to

this large tree I have behind

me. "cinched, stretched upward

like an extremely tall trunk, it

then spread out like branches."

>> So the cloud spread out at

the top, forming a mushroom

shape which is still known as

a Plinian Column. For Pompeii,

this cloud was lethal. The

pumice and ash was carried by

the prevailing wind to fall like

a deadly gray snow on the

ancient city.

>> And it was this volcanic

fallout that started to thicken

the air. The people who were

initially amazed by the volcanic

eruption now started to find it

difficult to breathe.

>> Many of the victims of

Pompeii suffocated on the

fine ash.

>> We see a picture of people

struggling to breathe. Like this

body here, which is curled up

with their hands close to their

face, essentially recording the

last final breaths of the people

as they filled up with ash and

hot, fiery dust from the

volcano.

>> Such a rain of ash falling

onto the crowded streets of

Naples today would cause

millions of casualties. In

trying to solve the mystery of

what makes Vesuvius the most

dangerous volcano in the world,

scientists have uncovered

2 crucial pieces of evidence.

The pumice from Pompeii proves

that Vesuvius can produce

explosive eruptions, the most

devastating type of volcanic

blast. A thick layer of volcanic

ash found underneath Naples

shows that Vesuvius has the

power to stretch out and destroy

the city. A similar-sized blast

today could kill 3 million

people, which would be the

world's highest volcanic death

toll. Geologists know that some

victims would die of

suffocation. But the discovery

of charred human bones are clues

to another, more terrifying

death wrought by Vesuvius.

>> Geologists are investigating

the deadly threat of Mount

Vesuvius. Remains at the Roman

settlement of Pompeii show how

thousands died: Buried by a

choking rain of ash and rock.

But in 1981, excavations 4 miles

to the west of Vesuvius show

that an even more horrific fate

awaited the people of this Roman

Town: Herculaneum. When the

volcano erupted in the year

79 A.D., Herculaneum was a busy

resort town of 10,000 people.

But surprisingly when the ruins

were first excavated, a mere

15 bodies were found.

>> Many people thought that was

because they could see the

eruption early on and were able

to escape. But when they dug

down further, here to the

shoreline and to these

boathouses, this is where they

found the truth.

>> The boathouses hid a grisly

secret. These are the remains of

the romans caught trying to flee

the volcano. The skeletons still

lie exactly where they fell

2,000 years ago.

>> It's hard to imagine what it

must've been like: Over 300 men,

women, and children here at the

water's edge in Herculaneum.

Here the boathouses providing

shelter from the falling

volcanic debris. And it was

these boathouses that were gonna

become the final resting place

of their tomb in Herculaneum.

>> For geologist Dr. Jerram,

these remains hold the primary

clue to exactly what happened

during the eruption 2,000 years

ago. The mass grave is treated

like a crime scene. Photographic

evidence is taken back to the

laboratory for further

investigation. The positions of

the bodies themselves are the

first clue to how quickly a

volcano can kill.

>> Here we have a body that sat

up against the boathouse wall in

Herculaneum, and in the arms of

this adult is a child. And they

sat there almost as though they

were relaxing or resting against

the wall. It's almost as though

you could be sat there chatting

with this person, and then

they've been killed.

>> There are further clues to be

found in the fine detail of the

victims' bones.

>> At the end of many of the

bones you see this blackened

coloration, and this can be seen

on many of the examples in

Herculaneum. And it really seems

to occur at the points--like

here at a sort of elbow joint:

The points on the body where

there's very little flesh and

the bone is very, very close to

the surface.

>> For years scientists debated

what the discoloration could

mean. Until in 1991, researchers

from the University of Naples

came up with a simple solution.

>> I'm gonna re-create the one

experiment that unlocked what

happened at Herculaneum.

>> Dr. Jerram is burning several

pig bones at increasingly

superheated temperatures.

>> I'm going to rack up the

temperatures, start to try and

burn the flesh on the bones, and

then hopefully get to the point

where I can start to produce

blackening of the bones and

reproduce the colors that we see

in the Herculaneum bone

deposits.

>> dr. Jerram burns one bone

At 500 degrees and another at

700 degrees fahrenheit.

>> The flesh is all starting to

burn now, but clearly we're not

really burning the bone yet.

>> It is not until Dr. Jerram

raises the temperature to

900 degrees that the bone itself

is burned.

>> Well, it finally looks like

we've got somewhere where we're

starting to burn the bone.

>> Scraping away the charred

meat and skin reveals the bone

underneath.

>> Here on this picture from

Herculaneum, you can see on the

end of this bone these brown

into black transitions with some

nice white bone behind. You

know, this is exactly what we're

seeing in the 900-degree

experiment. So we can produce

the blackened bone features that

we see at Herculaneum with high

temperatures burning the bone

that's exposed. But the bone

that's covered by a bit of flesh

gets protected and stays white.

And this could be the only way

in which we get these blackened

none features at Herculaneum.

>> The blackened bones show that

on the day of the eruption, the

air temperature 4 miles from the

volcano reached 900 degrees

Fahrenheit. That's hotter than

the blast from an aircraft's

jet engine. For years scientists

puzzled over how Vesuvius

could've raised temperatures so

high miles from the volcano. But

then a totally different type of

clue suggested the answer at the

small town of Boscoreale, just

one mile southeast of Vesuvius.

>> This strange pillar-like

structure--I mean, at first

impression it looks like some

very strange, weird concrete

post. But it's far more

fascinating than that, and the

clues are really in the base.

We see a number of smaller

structures radiating from the

base. These are actually roots.

You see them feeding back into

this big stump-like feature.

This is a fossilized tree.

>> The tree was buried in

volcanic material. As the

original wood rotted away, it

was replaced by rock and ash,

which mixed with water and set

like concrete.

>> Almost like a jell-o mold

of a tree upstanding. It was

upstanding over 2,000 years ago.

>> The shape of the tree is

deeply significant.

>> And as we work up this

fossilized tree, it suddenly

veers and bends at this point

here. Now, if we can imagine

about 2,000 years ago, this tree

was alive. And suddenly it's

been wrenched over and bent

towards that way, and it's also

been fossilized in that

position. Now, when we look at

the local geography, we know

that Vesuvius is over that way.

So some force which is bending

this tree and fossilizing it

must've been coming from that

region.

>> The clues of superheated

temperatures miles from the

volcano and a force that bent

a tree almost double suggest

only one thing. They're evidence

that Vesuvius produced another

deadly weapon:

A pyroclastic flow.

>> Pyroclastic flows are a

dynamic mixture of hot rock,

ash, and gases that move fast

and violently down the side of

a volcanic Mountain.

>> These deadly boiling clouds

reach speeds of up to 450 miles

per hour, faster than a bullet

train, and temperatures of up to

2,000 degrees fahrenheit, hot

enough to melt gold.

>> At the early stages of the

eruption here at Herculaneum,

you'd have seen a big, erupted

cloud coming out of Vesuvius

and heading off up into the

atmosphere. But just imagine

how scared you would've been

watching this cloud suddenly

turn around, and the black cloud

starts heading towards

Herculaneum. This cloud of hot

material--hot, boiling, bubbling

pyroclastic material--starts to

enter the city streets, starts

enveloping you and heading off

down towards the port. And that

was it: The pyroclastic flows

that hit Herculaneum.

>> Just hours later, the town

was buried completely.

Striving to understand how

deadly Vesuvius can be,

investigators have found vital

clues to the devastation from

the searing heat of pyroclastic

flows of the past. Horrific

burns on human bones prove

temperatures got to a blazing

900 degrees Fahrenheit 4 miles

from the volcano. And a

2,000-year-old fossilized tree

reveals the power of the

speeding flow of hot rock, gas,

and ash down the Mountainside.

But pyroclastic flows are not

the only deadly force in

Vesuvius' arsenal. It has an

ultimate weapon: Rivers of

molten rock that pour down the

mountainside to burn and bury

all in its path.

>> Vesuvius has yet another

deadly weapon in its arsenal.

One that was captured on film

during its most recent eruption

on March 18, 1944.

>> Cameras record the spectacle

of Mount Vesuvius.

>> A 5-mile-high cloud of ash

climbed into the sky over

Vesuvius. Pyroclastic flows

rushed down its slopes.

But worse was to come. Floods of

molten rock overflowed from the

lip of the crater to swallow up

entire Italian villages.

34 died, and thousands were

left homeless.

These rivers of magma on the

surface of the Earth are called

lava flows.

>> One of the most prominent

features in Vesuvius' landscape

today is this river of molten

lava, solidified lava, on the

sides of Vesuvius.

>> There are significant

deposits of the 1944 lava flow

extending 12 miles down the

side of the cone.

>> And looking at it closely,

I can see that there are no

bubbles.

>> Unlike the lightweight pumice

that rained on Pompeii, this

solidified lava is dense and

hard.

>> And actually, that is the

clue that is telling me that

this was not an explosive

eruption. This wasn't hurled

into the air. Instead, the gases

seeped through the lava before

they came to the surface.

>> Only a very free-flowing and

liquid lava could've let the

gases escape underground in

this way. And with very little

explosive gas left inside the

lava, it flowed out rather than

burst out of the volcano.

>> Lavas will flow down the

slope using the easiest way, and

this is going to be very much

the same path as water will

take.

>> Floods of lava at more than

2,000 degrees fahrenheit poured

down the slopes. Lava flows are

the hottest natural material on

the face of the Earth: Vesuvius's

ultimate weapon, an unstoppable

force destroying all in their

path.

>> And the word "lava"--it

actually comes from the Italian,

and it was coined in here. It

comes from lavare, which is

"to wash." and it is basically

explaining how lava flows: Once

they move over a city, they wash

out everything. Nothing is left.

>> Since 1944, Vesuvius has been

quiet. A calm has settled on the

people living in its shadow, and

today Vesuvius is even a popular

tourist attraction. But teams of

scientists still go into the

crater searching for any signs

that the volcano may be

awakening.

>> Ok. Let's go.

>> It's a 1,000-foot drop to

the crater floor.

>> Let's go down slowly.

Got a lot of rock falling today.

>> The volcano is crumbling in

on itself. The walls made up of

loose rock thrown out in the

1944 eruption are slowly

collapsing back into the crater.

Even before he reaches the

bottom, Orsi can see and smell

gas and feel the heat of

volcanic activity.

>> Yeah, the smoke you see

around here--it's gas coming

through fumaroles.

>> A fumarole is a crack in the

Earth's crust which emits steam

and gas from deep underground.

>> And it's an indication, one

of the indication, that the

volcano's still active.

>> A live volcano positioned

next to a city of 3 million

needs to be under constant

surveillance, so much so that

it is now the most closely

monitored volcano on Earth.

>> Composition of the gas and

temperature--it's related to

the state of the volcano.

>> These gases are the volcano's

early warning system. Any

significant change in their

temperature or composition would

set the scientists' alarm bells

ringing. Today's examination

shows no change. So for the

moment, Naples is safe. But

this lack of activity is not

necessarily a reassuring sign.

>> Because I think there is a

pattern on how Vesuvius behaves

in terms of you seem to have a

period of quietness, and then

you have a very large eruption.

And then you tend to have a

period of quietness, and then

another large eruption.

>> So the danger is the longer

the volcano stays quiet, the

more magma is allowed to

accumulate, so when it does

finally erupt, the bigger the

blast will be. New clues at

Vesuvius have concerned the

volcanologists who are

investigating its deadly power.

Dense, solidified rock is

evidence that Vesuvius possesses

the ultimate weapon:

High-temperature lava flows

capable of destroying all in

their path. Hot fumaroles in

the crater prove the volcano

is still active.

But new scientific techniques

reveal a vast magma bomb hidden

miles underneath the volcano.

A bomb that is primed and could

blow at any time.

>> Scientists have uncovered

clues suggesting that the

awesome power of Mount Vesuvius

could soon be unleashed in a

massive and devastating

explosion.

>> For an eruption to happen,

volcanoes need 2 things. They

need a source of magma, which is

a magma chamber close to the

surface, and they also need a

trigger. It's a bit like a bomb

and a fuse. So once you have

these 2 things in place, it

could blow at any time.

>> The key evidence is bubbling

up through the ground just

10 miles west of the volcano.

>> Some overriding sense that

this area is one of intense

heat, when all around me it's

not just the sun that's hot and

baking down. When there's

steaming gas coming out of the

ground in cracks and fissures,

it's that the whole ground is

kind of alive with thermal

activity. And it just tells me,

screaming out loud, that there's

heat just percolating up from

the ground towards me.

>> The steam gets to

temperatures as high as

300 degrees fahrenheit.

>> And the steam is also coming

up with a gas called sulfur

dioxide, and I can smell it

really strong. In fact, it's

almost choking when you get the

wind blowing it into your face.

So the telltale sign of this

activity, the sulfur dioxide

activity, is the coating of

yellow material, yellow sulfur

crystals, on all the rocks

around me. There's only one

thing on Earth that can drive

this kind of activity--the

sulfur, the hot geothermal

springs, and the hot gas--and

that's magma at quite shallow

levels.

>> For years scientists have

known that a chamber of molten

rock lies under Vesuvius, but

nobody could see it. Then in

2001, geologists used a

pioneering new technology to

investigate the ground under

and around the Mountain. It's

similar to the way a doctor uses

ultrasound equipment to reveal

the shape and size of a human

baby in the womb. At Vesuvius,

volcanologists used sound waves

billions of times more powerful

to take a picture under the

Earth. They detonated small

explosions at different

locations around the volcano,

radiating waves out under the

ground. Measuring the speed of

the waves reveals whether the

rock through which they're

traveling is solid or more

liquid, hotter or colder than

the surrounding ground.

Computers mapping the wave

movements from the surface print

out a ghostly but terrifying

shape.

>> For the first time seeing

that sort of information is very

exciting for geologists.

>> The magma chamber is so wide,

it stretches well beyond the

one-mile base of the cone

itself.

>> It's 250 square miles, or

about half the size of New York

City. So that's quite an

impressive feature.

>> It's not only impressive.

It's also potentially deadly.

The vast reservoir of molten

magma could fuel Vesuvius'

greatest eruption. But still

no one knows for sure what might

set off this seemingly inactive

magma.

>> There's some really exciting

wvidence that's been found that

suggests that Vesuvius might

have a bit of an unusual

trigger.

>> In searching for the secret

trigger mechanism of Vesuvius,

Dr. Petford examines the pattern

of when past eruptions have

occurred.

>> What this line here

represents is a timeline from

1600, where I'm stood, up to

pretty much now.

>> Each stick represents an

eruption of Vesuvius during

the last 400 years.

>> The first one is here at

about 1631. Then there have been

3 more significant volcanic

eruptions.

>> As the timeline takes shape,

Dr. Petford inputs more data.

This time the dates of another

seemingly unrelated set of

natural disasters.

>> We've got records of

earthquake activity, as well.

So I'm gonna use these stones

here to represent Earthquakes,

and these would be Earthquakes

that took place within about

100 miles of the volcano.

>> Ss Dr. Petford positions the

major Earthquakes of the last

400 years, a pattern emerges

between the tremors and activity

at Vesuvius. It has been

possible to investigate this

supposed link only because there

are such uniquely detailed

records about the volcano.

Vesuvius has been inhabited for

so long that every one of its

eruptions of the past 1,000

years has been meticulously

documented. Also, the volcano

sits in an Earthquake hot spot.

This region experiences more

tremors than anywhere else in

Europe: Activity that has

generated further detailed

records for geologists to study.

When all this information was

analyzed together, a

statistically proven link was

found. The evidence for this

relationship is convincing at

Vesuvius. But the idea that

earthquakes can cause eruptions

is still hotly debated

worldwide.

>> The idea that Earthquakes and

volcanoes are related is not a

new idea. In fact, it was

Charles Darwin on his journeys

to South America in the 1800s

who first proposed that there

could be a link between an

Earthquake and a volcano he saw

erupt a few days afterwards.

>> Darwin was in Chile in 1835

when an Earthquake struck. Days

later, he witnessed the eruption

of a chain of volcanoes. To him,

a relationship was clear that

one was the cause of the other.

>> And really since then, over

the last couple of hundred years

geologists have debated back and

forth how real, if you like,

this cause-and-effect

relationship is between

Earthquakes and volcanoes.

>> Despite continuing

controversy, many scientists do

believe that the next huge

eruption from Vesuvius may be

triggered by an Earthquake. The

theory suggests that pressure

waves rippling through the

Earth's crust can squeeze the

magma chamber.

>> If you imagine that this

bottle represents a magma

chamber down beneath a volcano

and that the water inside the

bottle here is lava or magma,

then as the Earthquake pressure

wave moves towards the magma

chamber, it interacts with the

walls and starts to squash the

chamber. The chamber walls sort

of pinch together like this, and

it drives the magma up to the

surface.

>> But even then, the eruption

may be delayed. Historical

records suggest the volcano may

not stir for months or even

years after an Earthquake has

passed.

>> And there could be some good

reasons for that. One might be

that the Earthquake builds up

pressure slowly inside the

volcano.

>> So the effect of the pressure

waves are not immediate.

>> Or that you need more than

one Earthquake. You might need

multiple Earthquakes that

progressively increase the

pressure inside the volcano.

>> Each wave squashing the

chamber a little more each time.

>> Until the last Earthquake

that comes along is effectually

the straw that breaks the

camel's back. And it's that

Earthquake that pushes the

system into critical instability

and makes an eruption.

>> After thousands of years of

study, scientists still do not

fully understand what causes an

eruption.

>> So an important thing about

Vesuvius is that if we can make

sense of this data set that

we've got for this volcano, we

can come up with a new model for

Earthquake-related volcanic

eruptions. Vesuvius could be the

world leader in helping us to

understand how other volcanoes

on the planet might work in a

similar way.

>> If Earthquakes are the

trigger for Vesuvius, then it is

possible that the next eruption

may already have started.

2 massive Earthquakes recently

sent shock waves racing through

the ground near the volcano.

In 2002, the first quake struck

just 40 miles northeast of

Vesuvius. This was a

magnitude 5.4 tremor. 30 people

died, and thousands were

evacuated from their homes.

Even more recently, in 2009 a

magnitude 6.3 Earthquake killed

more than 300 people in the town

of l'aquilla 60 miles north of

the volcano. This was the worst

such disaster in Italy for

30 years. The concern is that

the shock waves from these

quakes may already have shaken

Vesuvius' monstrous magma

chamber and triggered the start

of a new eruption. The clues are

adding up in the race to predict

when Vesuvius will erupt.

Scientists have gathered

2 startling pieces of evidence.

A huge magma bomb beneath

Vesuvius proves the volcano is

primed with the fuel for a

massive explosion. The

historical pattern of

Earthquakes and eruptions

suggests the trigger may already

have been pulled. Each new piece

of information takes scientists

one step forward in their quest

to foretell when Vesuvius may

blow. But even predicting the

eruption may not be enough to

save the lives of the 3 million

citizens of Naples.

>> Recent discoveries around

Vesuvius reveal that if a blast

like the one in 1780 B.C.

occurred today,

it would reach the heart

of Naples, a metropolitan area

with 3 million people.

>> Vesuvius is an active

volcano, and it's also

explosive. So it's quite

dangerous. In addition to that,

there is a very large population

living around Vesuvius. So also

the risk is very high.

>> Studies of the surrounding

landscape suggest that the

volcano's most lethal force, the

pyroclastic flow, would not only

reach Naples but would be

concentrated down in the

direction of the city. The high

cliffs of Somma partly surround

the cone of Vesuvius. If there

was an eruption, these walls

would act like a funnel

channeling the majority of the

boiling volcanic debris to the

west: Straight towards the city.

Vesuvius is like a loaded gun

pointed right at Naples.

>> The new evidence that we have

is really important. It points

to one very critical point: That

Naples is not safe. This area

could be hit. It could be

targeted.

>> This new information, in

addition to the discovery of

volcanic deposits in the heart

of Naples, has spurred the city

to review its 2001 evacuation

plan.

>> The evacuation plan currently

only deals with those people who

live on the slopes of Vesuvius

and the villages and towns

around, and that's about 600,000

people. The city of Naples, here

where I am now, isn't presently

included in the evacuation plan.

Of course, that's where the

majority of people live.

>> Geologists are key to putting

new evacuation plans in place.

But planning is the easy part.

Knowing when to put those plans

into action is the most

difficult call to make.

>> The decision of evacuating

or not and when to evacuate is

probably the $1 million

question.

>> If scientists seem to

exaggerate a threat and

recommend an evacuation, the

next time people might not pay

attention.

>> If they're evacuated too

late, the price might be

thousands of people dead.

>> It's a dilemma faced by

volcanologists around the world.

Mount Vesuvius is only one of

3,000 active volcanoes. 9% of

the world's population, some

450 million people, live in

areas threatened by a volcanic

blast. Mount Rrainier stands

54 miles from the 500,000

residents of Seattle.

Popocatepetl is located

44 miles from 9 million people

in Mexico City.

And Mount Fuji stands 60 miles

from the 12 million citizens

of Tokyo.

On average, 3 volcanoes a year

erupt, causing deaths and

injuries.

The hope is that lessons learned

from Vesuvius will one day help

protect people around the globe.

Mount Vesuvius still has many

secrets to tell. But so far,

geologists have put together a

disturbing portrait of what many

call the world's most dangerous

volcano.

Pumice from the ruins of

Pompeii: Evidence of the

explosive power of Vesuvius.

Charred human bones demonstrate

the 900-degree temperatures of

the Mountain's pyroclastic

flows. Ancient layers of ash

in downtown Naples prove that

Vesuvius has the power to engulf

the city. And new seismic

investigations reveal a

250-square-mile magma chamber

sitting under the volcano.

It's a ticking time bomb.

Geologists who study how the

Earth was made believe that

it's a geological certainty that

Naples will one day feel the

wrath of the volcano. Even now,

Vesuvius is armed and waiting

for it's next eruption

Dynamic proof

that the Earth is never at rest.

-- Sync, corrected by elderman -- -- for www.MY-SUBS.com --