Original subtitles

Okay, first of all, I need to wind the clock back to when I started to understand

what was actually going on here.

Isn't Vesuvius in Naples?

On one hand, I couldn't believe it.

On the other, I was pretty skeptical of how much of this was being exaggerated.

And then I immediately fell down a rabbit hole.

Are people living inside these craters?

Oh my god, that is your view.

I need to speak to people.

Why would you live here?

It could all erupt.

How do you evacuate that many people?

Your moment's notice is ready to erupt.

Waking up.

Surely we are all just if this goes on.

So yeah, I had a lot of questions.

And I volcanologists who have studied Campi Flegre.

Um, between this atlas and this crappy tectonic plates map, I feel like

a middle school geography teacher.

But what you need to know is that Italy sits right here where the

Eurasian and African plate meet.

These tectonic plates rub up against each other, creating a ton of heat and

pressure and in this case the African plate is being pushed beneath the Eurasian

plate and this is called subduction and it can cause magma to rise up through

the earth's crust which can trigger volcanic activity and earthquakes.

Today we are focusing on the region of Campania around Naples.

There are three volcanoes actually.

So the first is Mount Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei, and the island of Ischia,

which are all currently active.

These are volcanoes then.

We cannot predict because prediction doesn't exist for volcanoes.

Because we can't see underground.

But at least we can make a forecast.

Forecast.

These are the most monitored volcanoes on the planet, and these forecasts

are based on geological history and real time monitoring of earthquakes,

how the ground is moving, and how quickly gas is escaping from the rock.

And there is a huge caveat here.

Even with the best monitoring systems, reliable forecasts are rarely possible

to make more than a few days or even a few hours in advance of an eruption.

And you have a population of around what?

Almost 3 million people living in and around Naples, sitting between

essentially three ticking time bombs, and we have no sure way of knowing

how close that timer is to zero.

So scientists and local authorities working together have to be extremely

careful about How they present this to the public because it can and in the

past has led to false alarms And we're actually going to get into that a little

later in this video But since late 2023 residents have been experiencing

seismic activity almost daily Now these earthquakes are relatively small.

They call them seismic swarms large would be in chemistry would be a magnitude 3.

5 or 4.

But the concern is that they're happening way more frequently and slower.

So that gives us a feeling that this is not quite the same

process as happened before.

And my last call was with a volcanologist who lives in the region.

What is interesting is that there's a lot of interest for Vesuvius, and

not so much for Campi Flegrei, which is more dangerous than Vesuvius.

This is Giuseppe Mastalorenzo, and he's been studying Campi Flegrei for decades.

Differently from Vesuvius, Is a Caldera.

A Caldera is like a giant crater that forms after a volcano collapses in

on itself after a massive eruption.

In this case, a two major eruption caused the collapse of this

Caldera one about 40,000 years ago.

80 times bigger than the.

79 ad eruption and the other one occurred about 15,000 years ago, which was 10

times bigger than that same eruption.

And it's the magnitude of these eruptions that classifies Campaign for

Gray is a super volcano now technically for all the volcanologists out there

watching, calling it a super volcano, is actually referring to those super

eruptions that created the Caldera.

We can say is that in the top 10 of the active explosive volcanoes in the world.

That does not mean that every eruption will be a super eruption.

Basically, it's easier to think of Campi Flegrei as a volcanic

region made up of a system of craters, cones, vents, and lakes.

These visible craters are the result of explosive eruptions that have

occurred in the last 10, 000 years.

With the most recent forming 480 years ago.

Okay, so that's what you need to know about this volcano, but what is it like

to actually live on top of this thing?

For centuries it was chill, but in the past 70 years there has been an

alarming cycle of ground movement and seismic activity, which indicates that

something is going on below the surface.

But to really understand this crisis and to see the change, Giuseppe said I

had to visit the city of Pozzuoli, which sits at the epicenter of the caldera.

So I've booked a ticket and I'm hoping I'll finally be able to answer my initial

question of why people choose to live here and given the concerns, are they ready to

evacuate their homes if the time comes?

A week later, I arrived in Naples and through the help of some of our

subscribers, I managed to arrange to visit right here on the edge of this volcano.

I want to quickly pause the story here, just for one minute.

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And now let's pick up the rest of this story in Naples.

I've made it in a It's about two hours until the sun sets and I'm on

my way to visit a family who live next to one of these volcanoes and I

want to understand what that's like.

Are they as worried as I feel as somebody who's just arrived here in

Naples thinking, yeah, volcanoes, you know, what's that about?

Wow.

That's the period.

That's their view.

Angela's home overlooked sulfur.

Tara, this crater was formed around 4,000 years ago.

caused by a phreatic eruption like this one.

They're essentially steam driven explosions that are caused when water

beneath the surface interacts with the magma, and this area surrounding

it has been classified as the most dangerous part of the caldera.

The first, the first citizen to die, so on the history books, Angela

Ciccara, the first I've lived in Pozzuoli for a long time, and I've

lived in this house for a long time.

I mean, wow!

Here you feel much stronger.

Because we're close to the sulphate area, to the epicentre,

and we're always on this side.

Then we're on the fourth floor.

Maybe sell the house.

No.

Yeah, just as we were wrapping up the interview, Theresa looked off

camera to her daughter to confirm something that I hadn't noticed.

We can feel the heart quakes right now.

We can feel it right now.

Yeah.

It's up.

You can feel it because we can, because we feel it every day.

So there's one happening right now.

Is it still happening?

Wow.

And you, you can feel it?

Yeah.

Wasn't there a big one last week?

I've checked into my hotel here in Pozzuoli.

Not gonna lie, a little bit nervous to experience an earthquake.

If that's gonna happen.

In the last week there has been a lot.

Genuinely going to sleep, pretty nervous.

After an earthquake free night, I was heading to the center of this

caldera, which is going to help us understand this crisis better.

A ton of experts told me you have to check out the port in Pozzuoli

to show how much the ground has changed in the last 40 years.

And, I figured it out.

So, these, I think they're called moors.

The things that you tie the boats to are here.

But they're also here.

Why are they here?

And that's because 40 years ago, where I'm standing, this is

where the boats would have been.

Like, the boats were at this level.

The ground has risen so much that they've had to extend this, build this

out, and put new ones in over here.

So these ones here are now the current ones.

But speaking to some fishermen, they've told me that these

boats also used to be up here.

Like, you could just, step on to a boat.

And that was 20 years ago.

Those huge ferries used to be able to pull in all the way over here, but they can't

now because the water's just too low.

I mean, look, you can see.

Okay, so the ground in this area is rising.

It's been rising for decades.

The question we should be asking is, what's pushing it up?

So I've met up with Giuseppe at the port next to these Roman

columns to figure this out.

This was the temple, a therapist.

It was built in the second century ad, and it was just a temple by name.

In reality, it was a market.

But the reason I'm telling you about this is that geologists are fascinated

by these ruins because at some point this market was somehow drowned.

This banding around the columns are holes that were produced by mollusks.

Which indicated that these columns were submerged for a long time.

I wrote this paper about, uh, 33 years ago.

Wow.

How old are you?

31.

So this paper is older than me.

Yeah, yeah.

It sank at a speed of about 10 millimeters per year.

This causing the complete submerged around 1530.

So it was about 10 meters under the present sea level.

And this is the moment where it all clicked for me.

The last eruption of Campi Flegrei was in 1538, just eight years after

these ruins were submerged, and we have records of this period.

It was the first eruption in modern time to be described by multiple witnesses.

According to them, Campi Flegrei experienced a week long eruption,

which formed this volcano, Montenuvo.

Before the eruption of Montenuvo, the ground started to uproar.

Lift up to seven meters.

So the structure, yeah, the structure emerged again and retirement

near to the present position.

The ground level had inverted drastically due to the the magma

pressure of the upper cross.

Yeah.

And according to Giuseppe's research, it started to sink

again at the same rate as before.

But at the beginning of 1950, it started again.

If this is to be believed to still be true, we're going back towards He wants

to return to the original position.

Which might indicate Yeah, yeah.

It's called Brady Seism, and this is the most well documented

area in the world for it.

The next day at Giuseppe's place, which is right next to the new crater, He

showed me why this is such a concern.

This is the volcanological map of Campi Flegrei.

Part of Naples is inside the caldera.

All the calderas is very dangerous.

Because a volcanic vent can open everywhere.

Even here in Naples.

Yeah, any point can be the next volcano.

Okay.

That's a volcano?

Yeah.

That's a volcano?

All volcanoes.

That's a volcano.

All volcanoes.

The entire caldera, including the part submerged here into the sea, is about,

uh, One hundred square kilometers.

And the eruptions are always explosive.

Is this the most populated place in the world that's surrounded by volcanoes?

Like, the most densely populated?

Yes, absolutely.

Because in most of the other cases where violent, explosive volcanoes may erupt,

the towns are more far from the volcano.

Giuseppe is now taking us to the crater to get heat.

And he's not that worried, so I don't feel too worried right now.

Ah, these shots, not when I'm climbing a volcano.

Wow.

Shall I fly the drone?

You can't stop the British King here.

You can stop an American one, a German one, an Italian one.

That's not good.

I'm really looking for the shot.

You know, they can see me inside.

Every condition.

What this story has told me though, volcanoes are very different to

how I perceive them all my life.

Volcanoes, we see in movies, they exist.

I mean, Vesuvius is an example of that.

That's another volcano.

This is what considered in the past as the entrance of the hell they called

this, the entrance to hell, yes.

Oh, great.

Finally one of the most dangerous in the world.

Doesn't look so dangerous.

That's my hunch.

Why so many people live here and just are not two phased.

As the days went on, even I started to feel more relaxed.

Take away the active volcano beneath the surface.

And this is a pretty idyllic place to live.

This is even reflected in the house prices.

Looking at the data from the past eight years, prices have fluctuated, but nothing

indicates a continuous decrease in value.

In fact, in some parts of the Red Zone, prices are currently at

their highest in almost a decade.

The prices, uh, increase because everybody want to stay here because of the sea,

because of the beautiful climate.

So people don't want to hear about The volcanic risks, they say, oh, there

are just the risk of earthquakes.

Don't talk about volcanoes.

So I wanted to take another trip to Sulfur Tara.

It's the most dangerous part of Camp Air Flare, and I thought I would hear

a different story in this neighborhood.

So we're heading to a spot where there is a ton of gas, and we're gonna

speak to some people who live here.

Okay, so in this part of town we've been getting a lot of rejections.

Yes.

They don't want to leave here, but they are afraid.

If somebody will come check their houses, could find some damage.

And so they have to leave the houses without any refunding.

But what you'll find is, this is a very common response.

There is no immediate danger, so people choose to ignore it or

put it to the back of their mind.

And for the elder generation, part of their scepticism lies

here, in this abandoned quarter.

Anytime I spoke to somebody over the age of 40, they'd bring up what happened here.

And to understand why the authorities have to be so careful with raising

the alarm, we need to look at previous Brady seismic events.

This is Reno Terra, the historical center of Pozzuoli.

It's home to around 7, 000 people.

It's a close community based around fishing, it's also a poor

district, they have issues with sanitation and the buildings are

centuries old and in need of repair.

Residents are also aware of the volcano beneath them, but nobody

here gives it a second thought, it's been dormant for centuries.

On the 2nd of March, army trucks, soldiers and the police

rush into the neighbourhood.

They start informing residents that They have to leave their homes,

giving them little to no chance to pack up their possessions.

Understandably, there's pushback and those that resist are forcibly removed.

Within 24 hours, Reno Terra has been evacuated and the

district has been blocked off.

They would later find out that there had been concerns from local

authorities and volcanologists that Campi Flegrei had once again become active.

For the next two years, Pozzuoli experienced ground

uplift of around two meters.

The scientific community were concerned about a potential eruption

and that the buildings in Rino Terra could crumble into the sea.

But no one was prepared for such an emergency, which led

to this chaotic evacuation.

The residents were eventually relocated to these homes on the

other side of the caldera, but the damage had already been done.

And they've not been able to return.

So that created a great deal of bitterness, because even if some

people actually ended up in better accommodation, it completely fragmented

the community that had been created.

Now, it's just this quiet, open air museum.

It was restored a couple of years ago, but nobody lives here.

It's so weird.

To this day, some believe that there were alternative motives for the eviction

and lost trust in the authorities.

And to those people, regardless of the truth and what actually happened here,

that doesn't matter to them because What they believed happened has now been passed

on in stories and through the community.

But what this has all done is distract from the real threat.

Over the next eight years, everything seemed to go back to normal.

Then in the early 80s, the ground started to rise again.

Between 1982 and 1983, there was over a meter of uplift in

Pozzuoli and even more earthquakes.

Residents were again moved to a location still within the Caldera, but

away from the center of the quakes.

Authorities decided that this was the best way to minimize the social and

economic fallout of an evacuation.

I'm just editing this video, but my phone is blowing up.

Hi Andy.

The earthquake that I felt.

Uh, very strong, it, it was very strong.

But this is the largest in absolute.

There were many damage to some building in Pozzuoli and some people were evacuated.

Just before releasing this video, Pozzuoli was hit by the strongest earthquake in

the history of monitoring the volcano.

It could be felt across the whole region.

What was recorded was a 4.

4 on the Richter scale.

In the eighties, the strongest.

Now, an increase of 0.

2 may not seem like much, but it really is.

The difference between a magnitude 4 and 5 earthquake means that there's around 31.

6 times the amount of energy.

So an increase of 0.

2 corresponds to a doubling of energy being released.

Some residents were evacuated from their homes, others spent

the night sleeping in tents.

Buildings were damaged and according to Giuseppe he said

I received a message from Teresa's family, their home was damaged in

the quake, and like in the 80s, her and her family have had to evacuate.

Right now they're in limbo, waiting to hear if their building is safe

enough for them to return to.

Sulfatara was at the center of the earthquake and I wondered how Angela felt.

Was her home okay?

Was she one of the people who chose to evacuate?

Or did she just see it as another dance with the volcano that's been

going on for thousands of years?

Unlike in the 1970s, the local authorities have prepared an

evacuation plan across Campi Flegrei.

It involves moving half a million residents inland by bus and train, and

on boats at the port within 72 hours.

From spending time driving across this region and picturing the panic

of an evacuation, I'm not sure what this actually looks like in reality.

According to Giuseppe, he thinks that the plan doesn't account

for all the possibilities.

The present emergency plan is based on a medium scale eruption like this.

But this is just an assumption.

They balance between risk and economic effects.

But if you are facing the possibility of a catastrophe, you must

consider the worst case scenarios.

And on the basis of this simulation, I insisted with zero defence to completely

change the nature of the planet.

A super eruption would not just be catastrophic for Naples or

even Italy, but for all of us.

A full scale eruption could affect the global climate and

even trigger a volcanic winter.

Okay, let's begin.

Pull it back though, because this sounds like end of the world stuff.

It's scary, that fear in the unknown is what pulled me into this story.

It's what headlines use to get clicks.

Depending on the title, it might be the reason you clicked on this video.

But, but, but, but, huge but here.

Throughout all of this reporting, Everyone has said that there is no present reason

to assume if Campi Flegrei erupts, that it will be on that magnitude.

This is the main problem here.

How does the scientific community work with the local authorities to

articulate this to the residents in a way that doesn't blow it out

of proportion and disrupt social and economic factors at play.

And that's the big challenge whenever you work in an institution

that has to inform people.

If you tell old people, you have to leave because this is a danger, a red alert

area they want, most of them they want.

But they have to make people aware of the potential risk of an eruption

and that there is a plan in place.

They have to strike this balance and that's extremely hard to do.

I am glad it's not my job, especially at a place that does

not look like your typical volcano.

If you live there and you're born there, what happens is that you're

used to a volcano which hasn't erupted.

You're not used to thinking of that nice green mountain as

something that is dangerous.

They tell you that it's dangerous but it's different if you experience them with

your eyes or if someone tells you that.

I've covered examples on this channel of what people will

do to keep their homes safe.

And even those who have evacuated in the past largely chose to return

because it's their family home.

There's sentimental attachment, they just don't want to lose that.

So from afar, here in London, when I'm asking, why do people

live on top of an active volcano?

It seems pretty obvious that something bad could come from that.

But on the ground, what you see is people going about their days, working and

dealing with the ups and downs of life.

It's relatable and easier to empathize with why this crisis

is much more complicated when the threat is hidden and out of sight.

You may have noticed I haven't taken it down.

I think I'm going to keep it kind of like it kind of can't

be bothered to take it down.

I'm now doing the microphone thing that all the YouTubers are now doing.

Anyway, if you enjoyed this video and you want to see more of the behind

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Anyway, thank you.

See you around