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This show is fictitious.
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There is not actually an asteroid
headed to New York City today,
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00:00:05,360 --> 00:00:08,840
but this is based on simulations
of such an event.
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00:00:08,920 --> 00:00:12,320
We run simulations
of a fictional asteroid strike
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to prepare for
the worst-case scenario.
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00:00:16,680 --> 00:00:19,160
November 4th, 2029.
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We face a countdown to catastrophe.
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A giant asteroid
hurtles towards Earth.
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It's heading straight
for the Eastern Seaboard
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of the United States.
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The space rock
could wipe out an entire city
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00:00:41,080 --> 00:00:44,360
and cause widespread devastation.
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00:00:47,360 --> 00:00:49,760
Can Earth survive?
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New York City.
November 4th, 2029.
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The deserted metropolis
waited for the asteroid to strike.
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A giant space rock entered
the atmosphere,
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heading straight for
the Eastern Seaboard of the USA.
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As it comes through the atmosphere,
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we would see something
as bright as the sun,
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getting brighter and brighter
and brighter.
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At speeds of maybe
20 kilometers per second or so,
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that's something like
18 times faster
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than the speed of a bullet
coming out of a rifle.
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This asteroid was headed towards
the most populous city in America.
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When it impacts,
it will deliver more energy
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than 1,000 Hiroshima nuclear bombs.
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It would level some of the most
expensive real estate in the world
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in seconds.
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00:02:22,480 --> 00:02:25,480
There would be a crater
where Central Park used to be.
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00:02:27,480 --> 00:02:30,840
I actually don't even like
thinking about this,
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of how horrible it would be.
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This is beyond the worst disaster
the world would have ever faced.
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There's nothing in our history
that would have done
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this much damage so quickly
and so devastatingly.
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00:02:55,600 --> 00:02:59,200
The story of the asteroid
and the Earth's fight back
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00:02:59,280 --> 00:03:02,360
started seven years ago,
here, in Arizona.
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September 2022.
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The Catalina Sky Survey.
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00:03:15,120 --> 00:03:17,880
Guardian of the heavens
Greg Leonard
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00:03:17,960 --> 00:03:21,560
drives to Mount Lemmon Observatory
near Tucson.
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00:03:21,640 --> 00:03:25,040
He is on the hunt
for asteroids and comets.
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00:03:26,600 --> 00:03:30,600
We are the watchers
of the skies for the planet.
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We literally represent
the first line of defense
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00:03:34,760 --> 00:03:37,960
against potentially
incoming asteroids.
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00:03:38,040 --> 00:03:41,920
And I want to emphasize
the words "planetary defense".
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This is not in the benefit
for one nation.
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This is for the entire planet.
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00:03:48,320 --> 00:03:52,160
Greg takes a series of images
over a 20-minute period.
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Stars don't move in the photos...
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00:03:57,480 --> 00:03:59,920
...but asteroids and comets do.
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00:04:01,520 --> 00:04:03,520
A-ha.
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00:04:03,600 --> 00:04:06,400
We can see four points of light
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00:04:06,480 --> 00:04:10,360
tracking across the background
of the stationary stars.
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00:04:10,440 --> 00:04:15,160
This one is moving
very quickly across the sky.
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00:04:15,240 --> 00:04:20,640
So this tells me this is a real
near-Earth asteroid candidate.
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It's one of over 27,000
near-Earth asteroids,
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00:04:26,880 --> 00:04:31,040
or NEAs, for short, discovered
by the early 2020s.
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The huge gravity of Jupiter
can rip space rocks
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from their home
in the asteroid belt.
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00:04:42,640 --> 00:04:45,640
Some race outwards,
away from the Sun.
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00:04:47,360 --> 00:04:49,640
NEAs head inwards,
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occasionally towards Earth.
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00:04:53,840 --> 00:04:57,440
We didn't know it,
back in September of 2022,
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but these were our first images
of a deadly incoming asteroid.
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It's relatively close
to Earth's neighborhood.
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00:05:07,880 --> 00:05:12,120
We don't know exactly how far
it is yet, but it's close enough,
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where its motion across the sky
appears rapid.
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00:05:18,200 --> 00:05:19,920
The discovery of an NEA
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set a series of planet-protection
protocols in motion.
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Step one.
Enlist a global team of experts
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to investigate the asteroid's orbit.
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We had some of the brightest minds,
some of the best telescopes,
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some of the biggest supercomputers
working to protect Earth,
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collaborating across
language barriers,
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across international borders
to protect humanity.
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This international planetary-defense
team was tasked with discovering
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if the distant object would become
a serious threat to Earth.
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Their first job?
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Determine if the NEA's orbit
would intersect with our own.
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00:06:07,920 --> 00:06:10,920
Orbits are a little like roads.
Right?
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You've got a path that something
follows and they can intersect.
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You can have a crossroads.
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If only one object is there,
that's not a big deal,
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but if you have two objects
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approaching that intersection at
the same time, they could collide.
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That's the danger from asteroids.
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The team of scientists tracked
the asteroid for four months.
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00:06:33,080 --> 00:06:36,800
Over time, you can
build up observations.
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You can gradually narrow down
the possible number of orbits
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and then determine whether there is
any chance of a future impact.
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But the asteroid is orbiting the
Sun. The Earth is orbiting the Sun.
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There's this dance going on.
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Sometimes, the asteroid is
near the Earth.
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We can observe it. It's bright.
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Other times, the asteroid is on
the other side of the Sun.
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We can't observe it at all.
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00:07:03,160 --> 00:07:04,960
We were lucky.
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The asteroid was visible
throughout the fall of 2022.
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00:07:10,040 --> 00:07:13,640
However, our observations
of the space rock's orbit
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showed a very real possibility
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that it would slam into Earth
in just seven years.
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Astronomers gave
the incoming asteroid
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a suitably appropriate name, Apep.
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Apep was the Egyptian god of chaos.
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So that's a fairly good name
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for an asteroid
that could hit the Earth,
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because that's exactly
what would happen.
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You would have chaos,
destruction and death.
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A catalog of devastation
to be unleashed on Earth,
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but just how bad
would the impact be?
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January 2023.
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Asteroid Apep was on a collision
course with Earth.
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Step 2 in our planetary defense?
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Know your enemy.
Build up a picture of the asteroid.
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Apep was 1,800 feet wide.
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Five times the length of
a football field.
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Its huge size bumps it up
into a new category of asteroids.
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Apep was what
we referred to as a PHA.
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A Potentially Hazardous Asteroid.
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We're talking about something
that is a third of a mile across.
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This is enormous.
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A 1,800-foot-wide asteroid is about
112 million metric tons.
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00:09:01,840 --> 00:09:06,320
That's over 300 times the weight
of the Empire State Building.
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00:09:08,840 --> 00:09:11,400
Computer simulations of the impact
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of an asteroid that massive
hitting a city...
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...revealed extraordinary levels
of destruction.
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An 1,800-foot diameter asteroid?
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That would create a crater
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that's three or four miles across
and 1,600 feet deep.
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00:09:30,400 --> 00:09:34,400
It would have a radiation blast wave
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that would set things on fire
for about 20 miles,
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but, no sooner would things
be lit on fire, there would be
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a 500 miles an hour wind,
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radiating out, levelling buildings,
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knocking down trees,
destroying highways.
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100 miles away, you'd still feel
a magnitude-seven earthquake.
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It's not easy to say
what is going to kill you first.
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It's probably going to be
simply the flash of energy.
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There's so much heat from this thing
that you can be vaporized.
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00:10:06,640 --> 00:10:10,160
If you somehow survive that, then
there's going to be the blast wave
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that will pulverize
anything in its path.
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00:10:14,160 --> 00:10:17,840
To build an accurate simulation,
the scientists used more than
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size and mass,
they also studied its composition
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00:10:22,840 --> 00:10:24,400
and the speed of its orbit.
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00:10:26,160 --> 00:10:29,000
You need to know
what an asteroid is made of,
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the speed of that asteroid
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00:10:31,120 --> 00:10:33,800
and how large it is
in order to understand
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will it make it through
Earth's atmosphere
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00:10:36,200 --> 00:10:38,200
and what might
the impact effects be?
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00:10:40,760 --> 00:10:43,760
Asteroids vary
in composition and structure.
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Some are loose collections
of small rocks.
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Others are rocky and compact.
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The most dangerous are metallic.
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A metal asteroid can be
five times as dense as
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some of the lower-density asteroids
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and so, for the same
speeds on the same orbits,
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they pack way more punch,
when it comes to an impact.
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If you want to see exactly
what a metallic asteroid can do,
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go no farther than
Barringer Crater in Arizona.
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00:11:19,680 --> 00:11:22,160
Now that crater is
about a mile across.
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The meteor that made it was
only about 150 feet across.
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Arizona. 50,000 years ago.
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The last major asteroid strike
on present-day North America.
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A tiny metallic space rock
hits the ground
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at 25,000 miles an hour.
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Releasing energy equivalent
to 2.5 million tons of TNT.
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Scale that up to the size
of 1,800-foot Apep
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and it would create a blast wave
the size of Delaware.
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If Apep were a metal asteroid,
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it would tear through the atmosphere
like a cosmic bullet.
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In a modern city, without warning,
it could kill a lot of people.
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But although they're very dangerous,
they're also very rare.
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More common are rubble piles.
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Loose collections of small rocks,
held together by gravity.
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A rubble pile is the perfect name
for them. You can think of them
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as like, literally, a pile of stuff
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out of a dump truck
in your driveway.
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If you take that
and you put that in space,
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they don't have much gravity,
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but they have enough
to stay bound to each other.
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And that's your rubble-pile
asteroid.
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They are just barely
holding on to themselves.
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If you were to come
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and just apply sufficient gravity,
you could rip it apart.
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00:13:05,680 --> 00:13:09,360
Pressure and heat from entering
our atmosphere
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00:13:09,440 --> 00:13:13,200
can also tear a rubble-pile asteroid
to pieces.
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But that can be just
as dangerous to a city below.
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The break-up of an asteroid
in the upper atmosphere
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is pretty devastating.
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It's like a nuclear weapon
going off in the atmosphere.
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Flattening buildings
and breaking windows.
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00:13:31,680 --> 00:13:34,720
There are gonna be mass casualties
from an event like that,
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00:13:34,800 --> 00:13:37,600
due to just the injuries
from flying glass and debris.
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To discover what type of asteroid
Apep belonged to,
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the planetary-protection team
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train their telescopes onto
the space rock.
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00:13:55,400 --> 00:13:58,280
The analysis revealed that
Apep was a rocky,
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00:13:58,360 --> 00:14:02,840
carbonaceous, chondrite asteroid,
or C-type, for short.
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00:14:05,080 --> 00:14:09,240
C-type asteroids, like Apep,
are less dense than metal asteroids,
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00:14:09,320 --> 00:14:11,920
but more solid than rubble piles.
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00:14:13,000 --> 00:14:17,080
If a big enough C-type asteroid
penetrates the Earth's atmosphere,
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00:14:17,160 --> 00:14:20,560
it has the chance to make it
all the way down to the surface.
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00:14:20,640 --> 00:14:23,480
It doesn't necessarily burn up
in the atmosphere.
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00:14:31,160 --> 00:14:33,440
C-type asteroids pose
another problem
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00:14:33,520 --> 00:14:35,520
for the planetary-defense team.
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00:14:37,040 --> 00:14:40,640
The C-type asteroids, like Apep,
are very difficult to see
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00:14:40,720 --> 00:14:43,720
out there, in the sky,
they are very, very dark.
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00:14:43,800 --> 00:14:46,200
They're not reflecting
a lot of light back to us.
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00:14:46,280 --> 00:14:48,840
It's almost as if they have
these invisibility cloaks,
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preventing us from seeing them
sneaking up on us.
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00:14:52,360 --> 00:14:56,160
This C-type invisibility cloak
made detection difficult.
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00:14:59,240 --> 00:15:02,480
But our space tech was
up to the job,
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00:15:02,560 --> 00:15:07,280
collecting the crucial intel needed
for an Apep-damage projection.
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00:15:12,440 --> 00:15:17,080
Apep's size, mass and composition
told us it would punch though
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00:15:17,160 --> 00:15:20,400
our atmosphere and hit the surface.
216
00:15:23,360 --> 00:15:27,120
The final piece of information
needed to accurately predict
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00:15:27,200 --> 00:15:31,920
the true amount of damage from the
impact was Apep's kinetic energy.
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00:15:33,240 --> 00:15:37,560
The amount of energy the asteroid
would punch into the ground.
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00:15:38,880 --> 00:15:41,960
The kinetic energy of an object
depends on the mass
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00:15:42,040 --> 00:15:44,920
and it depends even more strongly
on the speed.
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00:15:46,240 --> 00:15:49,200
More mass creates
more kinetic energy,
222
00:15:49,280 --> 00:15:51,920
but more velocity will increase
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00:15:52,000 --> 00:15:54,960
the kinetic energy by
a squared factor.
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00:15:55,040 --> 00:15:58,480
For example, if something
has twice the velocity,
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00:15:58,560 --> 00:16:01,600
it will have four times
the same energy.
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00:16:01,680 --> 00:16:05,480
Scientists calculated
how much energy Apep,
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00:16:05,560 --> 00:16:08,560
weighing in at 123 million tons
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00:16:08,640 --> 00:16:14,040
and travelling at 40,000 miles an
hour, would transfer into the Earth.
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00:16:15,120 --> 00:16:17,520
So what kind of energies are
involved here?
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00:16:17,600 --> 00:16:20,200
An 1,800-foot diameter asteroid.
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00:16:20,280 --> 00:16:22,480
It's 112 million tons.
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00:16:22,560 --> 00:16:25,320
It was travelling at
40,000 miles per hour.
233
00:16:25,400 --> 00:16:29,320
That's something on the order of
10 to the 19 Joules of energy.
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00:16:29,400 --> 00:16:31,720
A one followed by 19 zeroes.
235
00:16:39,840 --> 00:16:42,440
1.8 x 10 to the 19 Joules
236
00:16:42,520 --> 00:16:45,600
is equivalent to 5,000 megatons.
237
00:16:45,680 --> 00:16:49,560
Take a one megaton nuke,
a substantial nuclear weapon
238
00:16:49,640 --> 00:16:52,520
and then blow up 5,000 of them.
239
00:16:52,600 --> 00:16:55,480
That is roughly the same amount
240
00:16:55,560 --> 00:16:59,720
as all the nuclear weapons on Earth
detonating all at once.
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00:17:04,160 --> 00:17:07,760
A strike this large
would affect the whole planet.
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00:17:10,160 --> 00:17:12,440
This would have a global impact.
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00:17:12,520 --> 00:17:15,640
We would have to deal with
the fall-out, the literal fall-out
244
00:17:15,720 --> 00:17:18,600
from this event
for potentially 1,000 years.
245
00:17:23,200 --> 00:17:25,200
Spring, 2023.
246
00:17:25,280 --> 00:17:27,320
We had two choices.
247
00:17:27,400 --> 00:17:30,880
Do nothing and face
a planet-changing catastrophe
248
00:17:30,960 --> 00:17:32,840
or fight back.
249
00:17:34,000 --> 00:17:36,600
We chose to take on Apep.
250
00:17:38,160 --> 00:17:40,960
It was the first time
in human history
251
00:17:41,040 --> 00:17:43,520
that we might actually
be able to prevent
252
00:17:43,600 --> 00:17:45,800
a natural disaster from happening.
253
00:17:45,880 --> 00:17:47,880
We could plan and launch
254
00:17:47,960 --> 00:17:51,360
a response mission, so we don't
have to get out of the way.
255
00:17:51,440 --> 00:17:53,200
Make it get out of the way instead.
256
00:17:56,160 --> 00:17:59,040
The mission's objective was simple.
257
00:17:59,120 --> 00:18:03,280
Stop the asteroid
and save the world.
258
00:18:05,520 --> 00:18:07,960
We can't superglue
an earthquake fault shut.
259
00:18:08,040 --> 00:18:09,760
We can't cork volcanoes.
260
00:18:11,160 --> 00:18:15,480
But planning for an asteroid impact
is something we really could do.
261
00:18:19,240 --> 00:18:21,560
June, 2023.
262
00:18:23,320 --> 00:18:26,320
A large asteroid was headed
towards Earth.
263
00:18:28,760 --> 00:18:32,760
It was predicted to strike
on November 4th, 2029.
264
00:18:39,760 --> 00:18:41,760
To protect our planet,
265
00:18:41,840 --> 00:18:45,440
a team of scientists plan to deflect
the asteroid.
266
00:18:48,560 --> 00:18:53,040
A 1,800-foot-wide asteroid
was headed towards the Earth.
267
00:18:53,120 --> 00:18:57,480
We needed it to go in, literally,
any other direction.
268
00:18:58,560 --> 00:19:01,400
So how could we push
Apep off-course?
269
00:19:04,880 --> 00:19:08,080
Scientists found a clue
in the asteroid belt.
270
00:19:11,960 --> 00:19:15,200
Sometimes, the lumps
of space debris collide
271
00:19:15,280 --> 00:19:17,840
and change their trajectory.
272
00:19:18,920 --> 00:19:22,320
Maybe we could replicate this
and deflect Apep.
273
00:19:23,400 --> 00:19:26,120
We could try to deflect the asteroid
and change its orbit,
274
00:19:26,200 --> 00:19:28,200
so that it actually misses
the Earth.
275
00:19:28,280 --> 00:19:31,560
If we do it early enough,
it may not be much.
276
00:19:31,640 --> 00:19:34,600
Less than half a millimeter
per second.
277
00:19:34,680 --> 00:19:36,680
But that is enough.
278
00:19:36,760 --> 00:19:40,480
These asteroids travel for
millions of miles.
279
00:19:40,560 --> 00:19:44,720
And so, over the course of days,
weeks, months and years,
280
00:19:44,800 --> 00:19:47,600
it will have a radically
different orbit.
281
00:19:48,680 --> 00:19:50,680
Sounds simple.
282
00:19:50,760 --> 00:19:53,880
Send up a rocket
with a robotic space probe,
283
00:19:53,960 --> 00:19:56,200
travel millions of miles,
284
00:19:56,280 --> 00:19:58,880
then knock Apep away from Earth.
285
00:19:58,960 --> 00:20:00,720
Piece of cake!
286
00:20:03,320 --> 00:20:06,320
In the movies, when there's
a threatening asteroid that's found,
287
00:20:06,400 --> 00:20:09,600
there is always a rocket on the pad
ready to go after that.
288
00:20:09,680 --> 00:20:11,280
That's not the case in real life.
289
00:20:12,840 --> 00:20:15,040
It takes years to design
the mission,
290
00:20:15,120 --> 00:20:16,920
to build the satellite,
to launch it.
291
00:20:17,000 --> 00:20:18,760
Then it has to get there
292
00:20:18,840 --> 00:20:21,960
and that might be millions
of miles away from Earth.
293
00:20:23,040 --> 00:20:25,920
Fortunately, Earth had a head-start.
294
00:20:26,000 --> 00:20:28,480
We detected Apep early.
295
00:20:30,840 --> 00:20:34,360
And we'd already built
an asteroid deflector.
296
00:20:35,440 --> 00:20:38,880
Called the Double Asteroid
Redirection Test.
297
00:20:38,960 --> 00:20:41,120
Or DART, for short.
298
00:20:43,520 --> 00:20:47,760
In 2021, we sent DART
6.8 million miles
299
00:20:47,840 --> 00:20:52,000
to rendezvous with an asteroid
called Didymos.
300
00:20:52,080 --> 00:20:54,880
Didymos posed no threat to Earth,
301
00:20:54,960 --> 00:20:57,920
but allowed us
to test the technology.
302
00:20:59,240 --> 00:21:03,400
The asteroid called Didymos has a
small moon asteroid going around it.
303
00:21:03,480 --> 00:21:06,880
The point of the DART mission
was to send an impactor
304
00:21:06,960 --> 00:21:09,240
into this little moon
and see how much
305
00:21:09,320 --> 00:21:11,520
we nudge it off the orbit
that it is in.
306
00:21:13,320 --> 00:21:16,920
The lessons learned from DART
would inspire a new mission.
307
00:21:19,920 --> 00:21:21,960
November 2025.
308
00:21:22,880 --> 00:21:25,280
We launched the DAFE mission.
309
00:21:25,360 --> 00:21:27,960
Deflect Apep away from Earth.
310
00:21:29,960 --> 00:21:32,720
This wasn't a test run
to a safe asteroid.
311
00:21:32,800 --> 00:21:34,680
This was the real deal.
312
00:21:34,760 --> 00:21:36,960
A mission to save our planet.
313
00:21:38,040 --> 00:21:40,840
It was an enormous
technical challenge
314
00:21:40,920 --> 00:21:43,680
and we had no idea if it would work.
315
00:21:45,320 --> 00:21:48,800
When you think about
a spacecraft going from Earth
316
00:21:48,880 --> 00:21:51,600
millions of miles away
to hit an asteroid,
317
00:21:51,680 --> 00:21:54,560
at an exact point in time
and an exact point in space,
318
00:21:54,640 --> 00:21:56,480
it's really the ultimate bull's-eye.
319
00:21:57,560 --> 00:22:00,720
It's like trying to hit one bullet
with another bullet,
320
00:22:00,800 --> 00:22:03,520
launched from
the other side of the continent.
321
00:22:05,600 --> 00:22:07,400
November 2028.
322
00:22:08,600 --> 00:22:11,280
After three years in space,
323
00:22:11,360 --> 00:22:13,760
DAFE arrived at Apep.
324
00:22:16,640 --> 00:22:19,640
This was our last chance.
This was our only chance.
325
00:22:23,200 --> 00:22:27,920
The kinetic-impactor smashed into
Apep at 14,000 miles an hour.
326
00:22:34,320 --> 00:22:38,200
On Earth, telescopes and radar
track the collision.
327
00:22:39,360 --> 00:22:40,960
Did it work?
328
00:22:41,040 --> 00:22:43,240
Did we push the asteroid off-course?
329
00:22:44,320 --> 00:22:48,560
At first glance, the mission worked.
We deflected Apep away from us.
330
00:22:51,320 --> 00:22:53,520
It looked like the mission worked.
331
00:22:56,440 --> 00:22:58,280
As an astronomer and, you know,
332
00:22:58,360 --> 00:23:01,360
a human who has to live on
this planet, I was very happy.
333
00:23:01,440 --> 00:23:04,400
Right? We've just, literally,
saved the world.
334
00:23:04,480 --> 00:23:07,480
But the happiness was short-lived.
335
00:23:07,560 --> 00:23:09,920
There was a problem.
336
00:23:10,000 --> 00:23:13,640
The collision had pushed Apep
away from Earth...
337
00:23:17,120 --> 00:23:21,280
...but it also sheared off
a 300-foot chunk of rock.
338
00:23:23,320 --> 00:23:25,320
This smaller asteroid,
339
00:23:25,400 --> 00:23:29,000
called Apep 2.0, could still be
a significant threat.
340
00:23:32,400 --> 00:23:35,400
A 300-foot chunk of rock
is still very, very large.
341
00:23:37,000 --> 00:23:40,320
300 feet wide.
That's almost a football field.
342
00:23:41,840 --> 00:23:45,240
The important thing we needed
to know, was it going to hit us?
343
00:23:46,400 --> 00:23:48,440
And, if so,
where is it gonna hit us?
344
00:23:50,720 --> 00:23:53,360
March 2029.
345
00:23:53,440 --> 00:23:55,000
We got our answer.
346
00:23:55,080 --> 00:23:57,080
Its point of impact?
347
00:23:57,160 --> 00:23:59,960
The east coast of the United States.
348
00:24:01,080 --> 00:24:04,680
With New York City
in the firing line.
349
00:24:07,440 --> 00:24:10,480
A smaller chunk headed for
New York City?
350
00:24:10,560 --> 00:24:13,240
This was the worst-case scenario.
351
00:24:19,360 --> 00:24:21,240
June 2029.
352
00:24:22,320 --> 00:24:23,920
Five months to impact.
353
00:24:25,320 --> 00:24:28,000
The future looked bleak
for New York,
354
00:24:28,080 --> 00:24:30,640
but it wasn't the time to give up.
355
00:24:31,760 --> 00:24:36,240
They reassessed an idea first
suggested to destroy the original
356
00:24:36,320 --> 00:24:38,320
1,800-foot Apep.
357
00:24:39,560 --> 00:24:40,880
A nuclear strike.
358
00:24:42,560 --> 00:24:44,840
It had worked inArmageddon.
359
00:24:44,920 --> 00:24:47,480
Maybe it would work in real life.
360
00:24:47,560 --> 00:24:51,760
However, studies revealed
that nuking an asteroid
361
00:24:51,840 --> 00:24:56,040
wasn't as simple as it looks
in a Hollywood movie.
362
00:24:56,120 --> 00:24:58,880
Hey, let's blow it up!
Let's nuke it! Right? Well...
363
00:24:58,960 --> 00:25:02,280
instead of one big problem, now you
have slightly smaller problems.
364
00:25:02,360 --> 00:25:05,760
And they're radioactive, by the way.
So you don't want to do that.
365
00:25:07,760 --> 00:25:12,080
Computer simulations revealed
that even the world's largest
366
00:25:12,160 --> 00:25:16,040
nuclear weapon had only 1%
of the energy needed
367
00:25:16,120 --> 00:25:19,680
to destroy
the original 1,800-foot Apep.
368
00:25:21,920 --> 00:25:25,640
We needed the world's most powerful
nuclear weapon
369
00:25:25,720 --> 00:25:28,400
and 99 of its best friends.
370
00:25:28,480 --> 00:25:30,240
Launch them all simultaneously
371
00:25:30,320 --> 00:25:33,440
and have them simultaneously
hit the asteroid.
372
00:25:33,520 --> 00:25:37,360
It was simply beyond
our technological capabilities.
373
00:25:39,320 --> 00:25:42,480
Fortunately, thanks to
the DAFE mission,
374
00:25:42,560 --> 00:25:46,000
we only had to take out
the 300-foot Apep 2.0.
375
00:25:51,760 --> 00:25:55,440
Could we blow this smaller asteroid
out of the sky?
376
00:25:58,360 --> 00:25:59,360
Maybe.
377
00:25:59,440 --> 00:26:04,000
But launching a nuclear Hail Mary
would be very controversial.
378
00:26:06,160 --> 00:26:09,160
Nuclear devices are the most...
379
00:26:09,240 --> 00:26:12,240
powerful, really, one of the most
380
00:26:12,320 --> 00:26:16,760
emotional things that humans
have ever invented.
381
00:26:19,160 --> 00:26:22,760
They are the most powerful tool
in our toolbox.
382
00:26:22,840 --> 00:26:26,600
We've got a hammer
and it's a very big hammer,
383
00:26:26,680 --> 00:26:30,280
but there are a lot of concerns
with them.
384
00:26:30,360 --> 00:26:34,680
They cannot be tested in space,
according to international law.
385
00:26:36,200 --> 00:26:38,640
Without being able to test
nukes in space,
386
00:26:38,720 --> 00:26:40,920
they were considered too big a risk.
387
00:26:45,800 --> 00:26:49,200
But New York had one, final,
potential savior.
388
00:26:50,800 --> 00:26:52,800
The Earth itself.
389
00:26:56,320 --> 00:26:58,120
2013.
390
00:26:58,200 --> 00:27:00,720
Chelyabinsk, Russia.
391
00:27:00,800 --> 00:27:03,800
An asteroid blew up
in the atmosphere.
392
00:27:06,600 --> 00:27:08,800
It didn't make it
all the way to the surface.
393
00:27:08,880 --> 00:27:11,880
The people in Chelyabinsk were
very lucky, because of that.
394
00:27:12,960 --> 00:27:17,360
The 60-foot-wide Chelyabinsk
asteroid was rocky, like Apep.
395
00:27:18,440 --> 00:27:20,920
It moved at a similar velocity.
396
00:27:21,000 --> 00:27:23,400
Around 40,000 miles an hour.
397
00:27:24,640 --> 00:27:28,360
But it met its match,
when it entered Earth's atmosphere.
398
00:27:29,760 --> 00:27:32,240
Earth's atmosphere
doesn't look like much.
399
00:27:32,320 --> 00:27:33,920
You think, "Oh, it's just air."
400
00:27:34,000 --> 00:27:35,720
But all of those molecules
401
00:27:35,800 --> 00:27:38,200
actually exert pressure on
the front edge of the asteroid,
402
00:27:38,280 --> 00:27:40,480
slowing it down and heating it up.
403
00:27:41,560 --> 00:27:44,840
The rock heated up and began
to crumble and explode,
404
00:27:44,920 --> 00:27:46,200
as it came through.
405
00:27:47,320 --> 00:27:50,520
The mid-air explosion,
called "an air burst",
406
00:27:50,600 --> 00:27:54,560
released more energy
than 440,000 tons of TNT.
407
00:28:00,880 --> 00:28:02,680
The shockwave travelled 100 miles,
408
00:28:04,160 --> 00:28:05,760
damaging 7,000 buildings
409
00:28:07,040 --> 00:28:08,920
and injuring 1,500 people.
410
00:28:10,320 --> 00:28:14,320
But a ground strike hitting a city
would have been a lot worse.
411
00:28:21,520 --> 00:28:26,240
Apep 2.0 was five times larger
than the Chelyabinsk rock.
412
00:28:28,320 --> 00:28:31,120
Would it break up,
during its ten-second trip,
413
00:28:31,200 --> 00:28:33,240
down through the atmosphere?
414
00:28:33,320 --> 00:28:35,600
Or would it pierce right through?
415
00:28:37,640 --> 00:28:41,120
The planetary-defense team
ran simulations.
416
00:28:44,120 --> 00:28:46,320
As that comes through
Earth's atmosphere,
417
00:28:46,400 --> 00:28:48,880
some of that hot air
can get into the cracks.
418
00:28:50,680 --> 00:28:52,800
Friction and pressure would heat
419
00:28:52,880 --> 00:28:54,800
Apep 2.0's surface
420
00:28:54,880 --> 00:28:57,600
to thousands of degrees Fahrenheit.
421
00:28:58,680 --> 00:29:01,560
At those temperatures,
even rock burns.
422
00:29:02,720 --> 00:29:07,280
We would see this flaming
monster of death coming,
423
00:29:07,360 --> 00:29:10,800
racing through our atmosphere.
424
00:29:10,880 --> 00:29:14,440
There are gonna be pieces of debris
vaporizing and coming off of it.
425
00:29:14,520 --> 00:29:18,280
So you get these flashes of light
that happen, one after another.
426
00:29:18,360 --> 00:29:20,880
Pop! Pop! Pop! Pop!
As these things are blowing up.
427
00:29:26,320 --> 00:29:31,040
The computer simulations showed
that the extra bulk of Apep 2.0
428
00:29:31,120 --> 00:29:33,800
would stop it from blowing up.
429
00:29:36,480 --> 00:29:39,480
Some of the asteroid
would blast away,
430
00:29:39,560 --> 00:29:43,560
but most of the space rock
would reach the Earth's surface.
431
00:29:45,560 --> 00:29:47,560
So that close to the actual impact,
432
00:29:47,640 --> 00:29:49,840
we pretty much just had
to hunker down and take it.
433
00:29:53,320 --> 00:29:56,520
The prospects for New York City
were grim.
434
00:29:57,600 --> 00:30:00,120
It was facing annihilation.
435
00:30:07,400 --> 00:30:11,360
October 2029. Three weeks to impact.
436
00:30:13,800 --> 00:30:17,080
For the citizens of
the New York Metropolitan Area,
437
00:30:17,160 --> 00:30:19,160
there was only one goal.
438
00:30:21,080 --> 00:30:23,080
Get out of the firing line.
439
00:30:27,440 --> 00:30:31,160
Now we had to have the plans
in place to evacuate these cities.
440
00:30:31,240 --> 00:30:34,800
It was a major emergency
for New York and its citizens.
441
00:30:36,480 --> 00:30:38,840
Time to move out of the way.
442
00:30:39,920 --> 00:30:43,520
To work out who should evacuate
and to where, the scientists ran
443
00:30:43,600 --> 00:30:47,000
detailed projections
of the potential blast area.
444
00:30:49,000 --> 00:30:52,120
There's an ellipse there,
that we call the hazard ellipse.
445
00:30:52,200 --> 00:30:55,600
That says, somewhere in this area
is where the asteroid will hit.
446
00:30:55,680 --> 00:30:58,120
That means
there's a little wiggle room
447
00:30:58,200 --> 00:31:00,880
and a range of areas
that are in danger.
448
00:31:02,360 --> 00:31:05,080
Based on the hazard-ellipse
projections,
449
00:31:05,160 --> 00:31:08,240
the government issued
evacuation orders
450
00:31:08,320 --> 00:31:10,800
for the Tri-State area
451
00:31:10,880 --> 00:31:13,880
and as far south as Philadelphia.
452
00:31:14,960 --> 00:31:18,160
It was the biggest evacuation
in US history.
453
00:31:19,440 --> 00:31:21,440
Millions were displaced.
454
00:31:21,520 --> 00:31:23,440
It was physically horrific.
455
00:31:26,280 --> 00:31:28,240
I live in the New York
Metropolitan Area.
456
00:31:28,320 --> 00:31:31,840
It was horrible for me
and my family and my friends,
457
00:31:31,920 --> 00:31:33,920
but we can't just sit here
458
00:31:34,000 --> 00:31:37,720
and cross our fingers
and hope that we don't get struck.
459
00:31:40,200 --> 00:31:43,680
The freeways
out of the city were jammed.
460
00:31:45,720 --> 00:31:47,600
Trains were packed.
461
00:31:48,680 --> 00:31:51,400
Over 23 million people evacuated.
462
00:31:52,480 --> 00:31:54,960
Leaving behind a deserted city.
463
00:31:58,120 --> 00:32:01,280
Computer models showed that
the epicenter of the strike
464
00:32:01,360 --> 00:32:02,960
would be Manhattan.
465
00:32:05,680 --> 00:32:09,560
The blast would reduce
the city to rubble and ash.
466
00:32:10,960 --> 00:32:14,520
There would be a one-mile-wide crater
resulting from it.
467
00:32:14,600 --> 00:32:17,240
So deep that it would actually take
the entire subway system
468
00:32:17,320 --> 00:32:18,640
and turn it upside down
469
00:32:18,720 --> 00:32:20,960
and lay it onto
the rim of the crater.
470
00:32:22,480 --> 00:32:24,920
You would have
a magnitude-five earthquake
471
00:32:25,000 --> 00:32:27,000
at even six miles away from that
472
00:32:27,080 --> 00:32:30,680
and there would be a big air blast
and 400 miles an hour winds.
473
00:32:32,800 --> 00:32:35,440
Something as light as a pencil
could be a lethal weapon,
474
00:32:35,520 --> 00:32:37,520
when picked up
by a shock wave like that.
475
00:32:38,640 --> 00:32:42,280
As the crater is blasting out
and excavating itself,
476
00:32:42,360 --> 00:32:46,120
there would be little blobs of
molten rock,
477
00:32:46,200 --> 00:32:48,960
that get thrown out in this wave,
478
00:32:49,040 --> 00:32:51,880
going faster than
the speed of sound.
479
00:32:51,960 --> 00:32:54,080
Like drops of fiery rain,
if you will,
480
00:32:54,160 --> 00:32:56,560
landing back miles away
from the crater.
481
00:33:01,320 --> 00:33:03,520
The city would be on fire.
482
00:33:05,880 --> 00:33:10,040
So, um, there's just no upside
to this. There's nothing good.
483
00:33:10,120 --> 00:33:12,680
It's just all from bad to horrific.
484
00:33:14,480 --> 00:33:17,280
But New York is by the ocean.
485
00:33:17,360 --> 00:33:21,240
What would happen
if Apep 2.0 hit the sea?
486
00:33:26,360 --> 00:33:30,520
Detailed simulations have revealed
two very different outcomes
487
00:33:30,600 --> 00:33:34,160
for an asteroid
hitting the ocean at high speeds.
488
00:33:37,600 --> 00:33:41,280
If a giant asteroid
strikes the deep ocean,
489
00:33:41,360 --> 00:33:45,520
less than 1% of its energy
gets converted into waves.
490
00:33:45,600 --> 00:33:47,400
Those waves quickly disperse.
491
00:33:47,480 --> 00:33:50,080
They quickly lose energy
as they travel.
492
00:33:50,160 --> 00:33:52,560
By the time they reach the coast,
493
00:33:52,640 --> 00:33:55,040
it might just be a little ripple.
494
00:33:55,120 --> 00:33:57,320
You might not even be able
to surf on it.
495
00:34:03,400 --> 00:34:06,520
If the asteroid hits
shallow coastal waters...
496
00:34:08,120 --> 00:34:11,720
...it could cause significant damage
along the shoreline.
497
00:34:13,400 --> 00:34:16,760
If an asteroid the size of Apep
hits the continental shelf,
498
00:34:16,840 --> 00:34:18,960
where the water is
relatively shallow,
499
00:34:19,040 --> 00:34:21,600
then it could potentially
cause a tsunami.
500
00:34:25,680 --> 00:34:28,480
But that would just be
the start of the problems.
501
00:34:31,720 --> 00:34:33,720
With a shallow-water impact,
502
00:34:33,800 --> 00:34:36,120
huge amounts of steam are generated,
503
00:34:36,200 --> 00:34:40,040
basically, by the energy of that
impactor vaporizing all the water.
504
00:34:40,120 --> 00:34:43,080
All the water is then put up into
the atmosphere.
505
00:34:43,160 --> 00:34:45,600
Water is a really good
greenhouse gas.
506
00:34:45,680 --> 00:34:48,880
So you have warming from the launch
of water up into the atmosphere
507
00:34:48,960 --> 00:34:51,560
and you have cooling
from all of the ash and the dust.
508
00:34:57,480 --> 00:35:01,480
A short bout of warming would be
followed by a brutal winter.
509
00:35:02,600 --> 00:35:04,600
Crops would fail.
510
00:35:05,880 --> 00:35:10,880
This impact has so many horrible
follow-on consequences.
511
00:35:10,960 --> 00:35:14,120
That tells us
how difficult it would be
512
00:35:14,200 --> 00:35:17,200
to rebuild from an event like this.
513
00:35:20,720 --> 00:35:25,040
The Eastern Seaboard would suffer
a serious economic downturn.
514
00:35:25,120 --> 00:35:28,080
It would take decades to recover.
515
00:35:33,400 --> 00:35:36,400
As the asteroid edged
closer to Earth,
516
00:35:36,480 --> 00:35:39,600
observations would normally be
carried out by
517
00:35:39,680 --> 00:35:42,120
the Arecibo Radio Observatory.
518
00:35:42,200 --> 00:35:45,320
The telescope's radar detectors
could give us
519
00:35:45,400 --> 00:35:48,520
vital, last-minute intel
on the space rock.
520
00:35:49,920 --> 00:35:53,960
You emit a series of pulses to the
asteroid. You have to know where
521
00:35:54,040 --> 00:35:57,040
the asteroid is, by the way,
because it's a focused beam.
522
00:35:57,120 --> 00:35:59,880
And the asteroid will reflect
those radar signals
523
00:35:59,960 --> 00:36:02,160
and you pick up the echoes.
524
00:36:03,280 --> 00:36:05,760
But, back in December, 2020,
525
00:36:05,840 --> 00:36:08,840
Arecibo's giant radio disc
collapsed.
526
00:36:13,480 --> 00:36:17,320
A key line in our defenses
was suddenly out of action.
527
00:36:18,840 --> 00:36:22,920
Losing Arecibo was a disaster
for us, in planetary defense.
528
00:36:23,000 --> 00:36:25,720
Arecibo allowed us to do
spacecraft-level reconnaissance
529
00:36:25,800 --> 00:36:26,880
of near-Earth asteroids.
530
00:36:26,960 --> 00:36:29,960
We could see them. We could see
the details on their surfaces.
531
00:36:30,040 --> 00:36:32,840
It allowed us to very precisely
track where they're going
532
00:36:32,920 --> 00:36:34,920
and follow up
the telescopic discoveries.
533
00:36:36,520 --> 00:36:39,120
So we can no longer use
the Arecibo data.
534
00:36:39,200 --> 00:36:43,040
We do have the Goldstone Antenna,
however, which is a little smaller,
535
00:36:43,120 --> 00:36:45,360
in the Mojave Desert, in California.
536
00:36:45,440 --> 00:36:47,960
It is able to bounce radar signals
off the asteroids.
537
00:36:48,040 --> 00:36:51,160
We do use that a lot to measure
distances to asteroids.
538
00:36:53,920 --> 00:36:59,080
November 3rd, 2029.
One day until impact.
539
00:37:00,400 --> 00:37:04,160
The space rock was just
400,000 miles away.
540
00:37:05,280 --> 00:37:09,600
And traveling 13 times faster
than a F-15 fighter jet.
541
00:37:11,480 --> 00:37:13,200
It was, first, a dim star
542
00:37:13,280 --> 00:37:16,480
and then a brighter star
and then, in the hours before,
543
00:37:16,560 --> 00:37:19,320
you could actually see it
approaching the Earth.
544
00:37:19,400 --> 00:37:22,280
New York looked outmatched.
545
00:37:22,360 --> 00:37:25,240
It looked like Apep would win,
546
00:37:25,320 --> 00:37:28,480
but this was not
the end of the game.
547
00:37:29,520 --> 00:37:32,520
Earth had one final card to play.
548
00:37:38,680 --> 00:37:41,080
November 4th, 2029.
549
00:37:42,880 --> 00:37:46,480
The 300-foot Apep 2.0 reached Earth.
550
00:37:48,560 --> 00:37:51,360
The space rock pierced
our atmosphere
551
00:37:51,440 --> 00:37:54,040
and hurtled towards the surface.
552
00:38:07,360 --> 00:38:11,160
Then the asteroid passed over
Manhattan.
553
00:38:13,440 --> 00:38:15,720
Over Brooklyn
554
00:38:15,800 --> 00:38:18,360
and over Coney Island.
555
00:38:20,480 --> 00:38:24,640
It hit deep ocean,
350 miles off the coast.
556
00:38:31,480 --> 00:38:34,480
Apep 2.0 missed New York.
557
00:38:35,200 --> 00:38:36,560
But how?
558
00:38:39,280 --> 00:38:42,280
Our seven-year battle with
the asteroid was resolved
559
00:38:42,360 --> 00:38:44,360
in a matter of seconds,
560
00:38:44,440 --> 00:38:47,240
thanks to orbital dynamics.
561
00:38:48,320 --> 00:38:50,920
The orbit of the asteroid
and the orbit of the Earth
562
00:38:51,000 --> 00:38:54,600
and the way the Earth spins,
in this great cosmic ballet,
563
00:38:54,680 --> 00:38:57,680
means that a few seconds,
earlier or later,
564
00:38:57,760 --> 00:39:01,360
makes the difference between
hitting the ocean and hitting land.
565
00:39:03,080 --> 00:39:06,800
The Earth rotates at
1,000 miles an hour
566
00:39:06,880 --> 00:39:11,200
and orbits the sun at
close to 65,000 miles an hour.
567
00:39:11,280 --> 00:39:15,080
Apep orbited at
40,000 miles an hour,
568
00:39:15,160 --> 00:39:17,320
but Apep 2.0
569
00:39:17,400 --> 00:39:20,720
travelled fractionally slower.
570
00:39:22,480 --> 00:39:25,480
The impact of the DAFE mission
that sheared off
571
00:39:25,560 --> 00:39:29,560
the 300-foot chunk of rock
had also slowed it down.
572
00:39:30,560 --> 00:39:34,320
Slowing down Apep changed when
it was gonna intersect the Earth,
573
00:39:34,400 --> 00:39:36,880
so New York spun out of
the crosshairs.
574
00:39:41,000 --> 00:39:44,280
Apep 2.0 hit the ocean and exploded,
575
00:39:45,200 --> 00:39:46,960
breaking up instantly.
576
00:39:49,480 --> 00:39:52,480
The strike threw up a wall of water
into the air,
577
00:39:52,560 --> 00:39:54,840
followed by huge clouds of steam.
578
00:39:56,840 --> 00:40:01,000
The impact created small surface
waves, that quickly died away.
579
00:40:02,840 --> 00:40:06,840
It's like doing a gigantic
interplanetary belly flop.
580
00:40:06,920 --> 00:40:09,880
It evaporates, it obliterates
and it generates
581
00:40:09,960 --> 00:40:12,560
an enormous amount of steam
and it sets up shockwaves.
582
00:40:12,640 --> 00:40:14,640
All that energy is still released,
583
00:40:14,720 --> 00:40:17,400
but the ocean is capable of
absorbing it.
584
00:40:21,080 --> 00:40:24,880
New York dodged a bullet
and escaped unscathed.
585
00:40:26,560 --> 00:40:30,720
Thanks to the dedication,
ingenuity and enterprise
586
00:40:30,800 --> 00:40:33,280
of a global team of scientists.
587
00:40:39,640 --> 00:40:42,640
Apep was an imaginary asteroid,
588
00:40:42,720 --> 00:40:47,920
but there are many potentially
hazardous space rocks out there.
589
00:40:50,480 --> 00:40:54,640
Thankfully, this was a fictional
scenario, a thought exercise,
590
00:40:54,720 --> 00:40:58,160
but it's informed by
our real, actual knowledge,
591
00:40:58,240 --> 00:41:00,400
that we've gained over the years
of dealing with
592
00:41:00,480 --> 00:41:02,200
potentially close approaches
593
00:41:02,280 --> 00:41:05,680
and the hazards from real asteroids
that we actually know about.
594
00:41:07,720 --> 00:41:12,720
Asteroid research is a good
insurance policy for our species.
595
00:41:12,800 --> 00:41:14,880
Hopefully, we will never need
596
00:41:14,960 --> 00:41:17,320
to carry these things out for real.
597
00:41:17,400 --> 00:41:19,760
Large asteroid strikes are rare...
598
00:41:21,480 --> 00:41:23,640
...but we cannot be complacent.
599
00:41:28,440 --> 00:41:30,600
The most important thing to do
600
00:41:30,680 --> 00:41:33,440
in planetary defense is
to find them early.
601
00:41:33,520 --> 00:41:35,520
If we find them early,
we have a chance
602
00:41:35,600 --> 00:41:37,000
to predict the possible impacts
603
00:41:37,080 --> 00:41:39,080
and we have a chance
to mitigate them.
604
00:41:39,160 --> 00:41:43,600
If we talk about the large ones,
larger than, you know, half a mile,
605
00:41:43,680 --> 00:41:48,400
then we know that there are about
940, in total, of that population.
606
00:41:48,480 --> 00:41:51,440
What that means is
that we've discovered
607
00:41:51,520 --> 00:41:54,080
96% of that size asteroid,
608
00:41:54,160 --> 00:41:56,920
so we're doing really well
with the large asteroids.
609
00:42:00,880 --> 00:42:05,120
But the smaller the asteroids get,
the harder they become to track
610
00:42:05,200 --> 00:42:07,680
and some of the smaller ones
611
00:42:07,760 --> 00:42:10,240
could still cause us damage.
612
00:42:11,320 --> 00:42:15,800
So we are adding the Near-Earth
Object Surveyor to our arsenal,
613
00:42:15,880 --> 00:42:17,680
to find the smaller threats
614
00:42:17,760 --> 00:42:19,960
that we might otherwise miss.
615
00:42:21,040 --> 00:42:23,440
NEO Surveyor is a critical mission.
616
00:42:23,520 --> 00:42:25,120
It's an infrared camera.
617
00:42:25,200 --> 00:42:28,840
In infrared, asteroids are easier to
see. They're brighter than they are
618
00:42:28,920 --> 00:42:31,120
in visible light,
so they jump out at you.
619
00:42:31,200 --> 00:42:34,080
You can track them and that is
the most important thing.
620
00:42:35,160 --> 00:42:38,360
It will be sensitive enough
that it can discover these asteroids
621
00:42:38,440 --> 00:42:40,320
that are 140m,
622
00:42:40,400 --> 00:42:42,520
460 feet and larger
623
00:42:42,600 --> 00:42:46,800
and to find enough of them,
over its five to ten year lifetime,
624
00:42:46,880 --> 00:42:51,000
that we will reach the 90% goal
that Congress has assigned us.
625
00:42:51,080 --> 00:42:55,080
So we're getting there,
but we have more work to do.
626
00:43:02,760 --> 00:43:04,760
Our technology is improving.
627
00:43:06,040 --> 00:43:09,240
So we can detect
incoming space rocks earlier.
628
00:43:11,120 --> 00:43:13,920
But we need to be vigilant,
629
00:43:14,000 --> 00:43:18,560
because the threat from asteroids
is not going away.
630
00:43:19,840 --> 00:43:24,000
Apart from climate change,
asteroid strikes are, in my opinion,
631
00:43:24,080 --> 00:43:26,840
the most dangerous thing
to life on Earth.
632
00:43:26,920 --> 00:43:29,680
A lot of the time, the question
I get is,
633
00:43:29,760 --> 00:43:31,640
"What are the chances of
this happening?"
634
00:43:31,720 --> 00:43:34,520
And they don't like the answer,
because I say, "100%."
635
00:43:36,600 --> 00:43:40,920
It takes time. It may not be for
a week, a month, a year, a century,
636
00:43:41,000 --> 00:43:44,400
but studying these asteroids
informs us on what we can do
637
00:43:44,480 --> 00:43:46,320
to prevent an impact.
638
00:43:46,400 --> 00:43:49,000
There are a lot of natural disasters
that we can do
639
00:43:49,080 --> 00:43:50,680
nothing about, earthquakes,
640
00:43:50,760 --> 00:43:53,280
hurricanes, but here is something
641
00:43:53,360 --> 00:43:55,880
way more devastating than
any of those
642
00:43:55,960 --> 00:43:57,960
and we can prevent them.
643
00:43:58,040 --> 00:44:01,040
So we have to keep our eyes
on the prize
644
00:44:01,120 --> 00:44:02,960
and our eyes on the skies.
645
00:44:03,040 --> 00:44:05,040
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