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These are the user uploaded subtitles that are being translated: 1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:01,600 This show is fictitious. 2 00:00:01,680 --> 00:00:05,280 There is not actually an asteroid headed to New York City today, 3 00:00:05,360 --> 00:00:08,840 but this is based on simulations of such an event. 4 00:00:08,920 --> 00:00:12,320 We run simulations of a fictional asteroid strike 5 00:00:12,400 --> 00:00:15,360 to prepare for the worst-case scenario. 6 00:00:16,680 --> 00:00:19,160 November 4th, 2029. 7 00:00:19,240 --> 00:00:23,120 We face a countdown to catastrophe. 8 00:00:24,440 --> 00:00:27,440 A giant asteroid hurtles towards Earth. 9 00:00:29,720 --> 00:00:32,040 It's heading straight for the Eastern Seaboard 10 00:00:32,120 --> 00:00:33,600 of the United States. 11 00:00:37,280 --> 00:00:41,000 The space rock could wipe out an entire city 12 00:00:41,080 --> 00:00:44,360 and cause widespread devastation. 13 00:00:47,360 --> 00:00:49,760 Can Earth survive? 14 00:01:05,600 --> 00:01:10,280 New York City. November 4th, 2029. 15 00:01:12,440 --> 00:01:17,120 The deserted metropolis waited for the asteroid to strike. 16 00:01:18,560 --> 00:01:21,560 A giant space rock entered the atmosphere, 17 00:01:21,640 --> 00:01:25,200 heading straight for the Eastern Seaboard of the USA. 18 00:01:26,400 --> 00:01:28,680 As it comes through the atmosphere, 19 00:01:28,760 --> 00:01:31,240 we would see something as bright as the sun, 20 00:01:31,320 --> 00:01:33,720 getting brighter and brighter and brighter. 21 00:01:35,000 --> 00:01:38,120 At speeds of maybe 20 kilometers per second or so, 22 00:01:38,200 --> 00:01:40,360 that's something like 18 times faster 23 00:01:40,440 --> 00:01:42,760 than the speed of a bullet coming out of a rifle. 24 00:01:44,560 --> 00:01:49,760 This asteroid was headed towards the most populous city in America. 25 00:01:49,840 --> 00:01:53,760 When it impacts, it will deliver more energy 26 00:01:53,840 --> 00:01:57,320 than 1,000 Hiroshima nuclear bombs. 27 00:02:08,480 --> 00:02:11,880 It would level some of the most expensive real estate in the world 28 00:02:11,960 --> 00:02:13,800 in seconds. 29 00:02:22,480 --> 00:02:25,480 There would be a crater where Central Park used to be. 30 00:02:27,480 --> 00:02:30,840 I actually don't even like thinking about this, 31 00:02:30,920 --> 00:02:33,360 of how horrible it would be. 32 00:02:35,160 --> 00:02:39,000 This is beyond the worst disaster the world would have ever faced. 33 00:02:39,080 --> 00:02:42,200 There's nothing in our history that would have done 34 00:02:42,280 --> 00:02:46,080 this much damage so quickly and so devastatingly. 35 00:02:55,600 --> 00:02:59,200 The story of the asteroid and the Earth's fight back 36 00:02:59,280 --> 00:03:02,360 started seven years ago, here, in Arizona. 37 00:03:08,160 --> 00:03:10,720 September 2022. 38 00:03:12,760 --> 00:03:15,040 The Catalina Sky Survey. 39 00:03:15,120 --> 00:03:17,880 Guardian of the heavens Greg Leonard 40 00:03:17,960 --> 00:03:21,560 drives to Mount Lemmon Observatory near Tucson. 41 00:03:21,640 --> 00:03:25,040 He is on the hunt for asteroids and comets. 42 00:03:26,600 --> 00:03:30,600 We are the watchers of the skies for the planet. 43 00:03:30,680 --> 00:03:34,680 We literally represent the first line of defense 44 00:03:34,760 --> 00:03:37,960 against potentially incoming asteroids. 45 00:03:38,040 --> 00:03:41,920 And I want to emphasize the words "planetary defense". 46 00:03:42,000 --> 00:03:44,760 This is not in the benefit for one nation. 47 00:03:44,840 --> 00:03:46,640 This is for the entire planet. 48 00:03:48,320 --> 00:03:52,160 Greg takes a series of images over a 20-minute period. 49 00:03:53,240 --> 00:03:56,240 Stars don't move in the photos... 50 00:03:57,480 --> 00:03:59,920 ...but asteroids and comets do. 51 00:04:01,520 --> 00:04:03,520 A-ha. 52 00:04:03,600 --> 00:04:06,400 We can see four points of light 53 00:04:06,480 --> 00:04:10,360 tracking across the background of the stationary stars. 54 00:04:10,440 --> 00:04:15,160 This one is moving very quickly across the sky. 55 00:04:15,240 --> 00:04:20,640 So this tells me this is a real near-Earth asteroid candidate. 56 00:04:22,800 --> 00:04:26,800 It's one of over 27,000 near-Earth asteroids, 57 00:04:26,880 --> 00:04:31,040 or NEAs, for short, discovered by the early 2020s. 58 00:04:34,560 --> 00:04:37,760 The huge gravity of Jupiter can rip space rocks 59 00:04:37,840 --> 00:04:40,560 from their home in the asteroid belt. 60 00:04:42,640 --> 00:04:45,640 Some race outwards, away from the Sun. 61 00:04:47,360 --> 00:04:49,640 NEAs head inwards, 62 00:04:49,720 --> 00:04:52,400 occasionally towards Earth. 63 00:04:53,840 --> 00:04:57,440 We didn't know it, back in September of 2022, 64 00:04:57,520 --> 00:05:02,640 but these were our first images of a deadly incoming asteroid. 65 00:05:04,280 --> 00:05:07,800 It's relatively close to Earth's neighborhood. 66 00:05:07,880 --> 00:05:12,120 We don't know exactly how far it is yet, but it's close enough, 67 00:05:12,200 --> 00:05:15,640 where its motion across the sky appears rapid. 68 00:05:18,200 --> 00:05:19,920 The discovery of an NEA 69 00:05:20,000 --> 00:05:23,680 set a series of planet-protection protocols in motion. 70 00:05:26,000 --> 00:05:29,200 Step one. Enlist a global team of experts 71 00:05:29,280 --> 00:05:32,280 to investigate the asteroid's orbit. 72 00:05:34,960 --> 00:05:38,400 We had some of the brightest minds, some of the best telescopes, 73 00:05:38,480 --> 00:05:41,800 some of the biggest supercomputers working to protect Earth, 74 00:05:41,880 --> 00:05:44,200 collaborating across language barriers, 75 00:05:44,280 --> 00:05:47,040 across international borders to protect humanity. 76 00:05:49,000 --> 00:05:53,400 This international planetary-defense team was tasked with discovering 77 00:05:53,480 --> 00:05:57,480 if the distant object would become a serious threat to Earth. 78 00:06:00,560 --> 00:06:02,560 Their first job? 79 00:06:02,640 --> 00:06:06,600 Determine if the NEA's orbit would intersect with our own. 80 00:06:07,920 --> 00:06:10,920 Orbits are a little like roads. Right? 81 00:06:11,000 --> 00:06:14,000 You've got a path that something follows and they can intersect. 82 00:06:14,080 --> 00:06:15,680 You can have a crossroads. 83 00:06:15,760 --> 00:06:18,120 If only one object is there, that's not a big deal, 84 00:06:18,200 --> 00:06:19,680 but if you have two objects 85 00:06:19,760 --> 00:06:22,960 approaching that intersection at the same time, they could collide. 86 00:06:23,040 --> 00:06:25,040 That's the danger from asteroids. 87 00:06:27,240 --> 00:06:31,240 The team of scientists tracked the asteroid for four months. 88 00:06:33,080 --> 00:06:36,800 Over time, you can build up observations. 89 00:06:36,880 --> 00:06:40,840 You can gradually narrow down the possible number of orbits 90 00:06:40,920 --> 00:06:45,240 and then determine whether there is any chance of a future impact. 91 00:06:46,320 --> 00:06:50,720 But the asteroid is orbiting the Sun. The Earth is orbiting the Sun. 92 00:06:50,800 --> 00:06:52,520 There's this dance going on. 93 00:06:52,600 --> 00:06:54,960 Sometimes, the asteroid is near the Earth. 94 00:06:55,040 --> 00:06:56,920 We can observe it. It's bright. 95 00:06:57,000 --> 00:07:00,000 Other times, the asteroid is on the other side of the Sun. 96 00:07:00,080 --> 00:07:02,080 We can't observe it at all. 97 00:07:03,160 --> 00:07:04,960 We were lucky. 98 00:07:05,040 --> 00:07:08,640 The asteroid was visible throughout the fall of 2022. 99 00:07:10,040 --> 00:07:13,640 However, our observations of the space rock's orbit 100 00:07:13,720 --> 00:07:16,360 showed a very real possibility 101 00:07:16,440 --> 00:07:20,000 that it would slam into Earth in just seven years. 102 00:07:25,840 --> 00:07:28,280 Astronomers gave the incoming asteroid 103 00:07:28,360 --> 00:07:32,040 a suitably appropriate name, Apep. 104 00:07:34,040 --> 00:07:36,680 Apep was the Egyptian god of chaos. 105 00:07:36,760 --> 00:07:38,760 So that's a fairly good name 106 00:07:38,840 --> 00:07:41,240 for an asteroid that could hit the Earth, 107 00:07:41,320 --> 00:07:43,720 because that's exactly what would happen. 108 00:07:43,800 --> 00:07:46,360 You would have chaos, destruction and death. 109 00:07:55,120 --> 00:07:59,440 A catalog of devastation to be unleashed on Earth, 110 00:07:59,520 --> 00:08:03,120 but just how bad would the impact be? 111 00:08:15,120 --> 00:08:17,600 January 2023. 112 00:08:17,680 --> 00:08:21,280 Asteroid Apep was on a collision course with Earth. 113 00:08:22,360 --> 00:08:25,080 Step 2 in our planetary defense? 114 00:08:25,160 --> 00:08:29,480 Know your enemy. Build up a picture of the asteroid. 115 00:08:30,800 --> 00:08:32,800 Apep was 1,800 feet wide. 116 00:08:32,880 --> 00:08:36,320 Five times the length of a football field. 117 00:08:36,400 --> 00:08:40,640 Its huge size bumps it up into a new category of asteroids. 118 00:08:42,360 --> 00:08:44,640 Apep was what we referred to as a PHA. 119 00:08:44,720 --> 00:08:46,720 A Potentially Hazardous Asteroid. 120 00:08:48,920 --> 00:08:52,520 We're talking about something that is a third of a mile across. 121 00:08:52,600 --> 00:08:54,600 This is enormous. 122 00:08:56,920 --> 00:09:01,240 A 1,800-foot-wide asteroid is about 112 million metric tons. 123 00:09:01,840 --> 00:09:06,320 That's over 300 times the weight of the Empire State Building. 124 00:09:08,840 --> 00:09:11,400 Computer simulations of the impact 125 00:09:11,480 --> 00:09:14,560 of an asteroid that massive hitting a city... 126 00:09:15,920 --> 00:09:19,400 ...revealed extraordinary levels of destruction. 127 00:09:21,160 --> 00:09:23,800 An 1,800-foot diameter asteroid? 128 00:09:23,880 --> 00:09:26,240 That would create a crater 129 00:09:26,320 --> 00:09:30,320 that's three or four miles across and 1,600 feet deep. 130 00:09:30,400 --> 00:09:34,400 It would have a radiation blast wave 131 00:09:34,480 --> 00:09:39,040 that would set things on fire for about 20 miles, 132 00:09:39,120 --> 00:09:43,440 but, no sooner would things be lit on fire, there would be 133 00:09:43,520 --> 00:09:45,840 a 500 miles an hour wind, 134 00:09:45,920 --> 00:09:48,480 radiating out, levelling buildings, 135 00:09:48,560 --> 00:09:51,200 knocking down trees, destroying highways. 136 00:09:52,280 --> 00:09:55,440 100 miles away, you'd still feel a magnitude-seven earthquake. 137 00:09:57,480 --> 00:09:59,920 It's not easy to say what is going to kill you first. 138 00:10:00,000 --> 00:10:03,080 It's probably going to be simply the flash of energy. 139 00:10:03,160 --> 00:10:06,560 There's so much heat from this thing that you can be vaporized. 140 00:10:06,640 --> 00:10:10,160 If you somehow survive that, then there's going to be the blast wave 141 00:10:10,240 --> 00:10:12,600 that will pulverize anything in its path. 142 00:10:14,160 --> 00:10:17,840 To build an accurate simulation, the scientists used more than 143 00:10:17,920 --> 00:10:22,760 size and mass, they also studied its composition 144 00:10:22,840 --> 00:10:24,400 and the speed of its orbit. 145 00:10:26,160 --> 00:10:29,000 You need to know what an asteroid is made of, 146 00:10:29,080 --> 00:10:31,040 the speed of that asteroid 147 00:10:31,120 --> 00:10:33,800 and how large it is in order to understand 148 00:10:33,880 --> 00:10:36,120 will it make it through Earth's atmosphere 149 00:10:36,200 --> 00:10:38,200 and what might the impact effects be? 150 00:10:40,760 --> 00:10:43,760 Asteroids vary in composition and structure. 151 00:10:45,320 --> 00:10:48,480 Some are loose collections of small rocks. 152 00:10:50,000 --> 00:10:52,840 Others are rocky and compact. 153 00:10:54,480 --> 00:10:57,080 The most dangerous are metallic. 154 00:10:58,680 --> 00:11:01,080 A metal asteroid can be five times as dense as 155 00:11:01,160 --> 00:11:03,040 some of the lower-density asteroids 156 00:11:03,120 --> 00:11:05,560 and so, for the same speeds on the same orbits, 157 00:11:05,640 --> 00:11:08,360 they pack way more punch, when it comes to an impact. 158 00:11:13,040 --> 00:11:16,240 If you want to see exactly what a metallic asteroid can do, 159 00:11:16,320 --> 00:11:19,600 go no farther than Barringer Crater in Arizona. 160 00:11:19,680 --> 00:11:22,160 Now that crater is about a mile across. 161 00:11:22,240 --> 00:11:26,040 The meteor that made it was only about 150 feet across. 162 00:11:26,720 --> 00:11:30,040 Arizona. 50,000 years ago. 163 00:11:30,120 --> 00:11:34,560 The last major asteroid strike on present-day North America. 164 00:11:36,560 --> 00:11:39,760 A tiny metallic space rock hits the ground 165 00:11:39,840 --> 00:11:42,240 at 25,000 miles an hour. 166 00:11:43,720 --> 00:11:48,280 Releasing energy equivalent to 2.5 million tons of TNT. 167 00:11:51,040 --> 00:11:54,960 Scale that up to the size of 1,800-foot Apep 168 00:11:55,040 --> 00:11:58,760 and it would create a blast wave the size of Delaware. 169 00:11:59,840 --> 00:12:01,440 If Apep were a metal asteroid, 170 00:12:01,520 --> 00:12:04,760 it would tear through the atmosphere like a cosmic bullet. 171 00:12:04,840 --> 00:12:08,840 In a modern city, without warning, it could kill a lot of people. 172 00:12:10,920 --> 00:12:14,720 But although they're very dangerous, they're also very rare. 173 00:12:18,560 --> 00:12:20,960 More common are rubble piles. 174 00:12:22,560 --> 00:12:26,720 Loose collections of small rocks, held together by gravity. 175 00:12:34,520 --> 00:12:38,560 A rubble pile is the perfect name for them. You can think of them 176 00:12:38,640 --> 00:12:40,760 as like, literally, a pile of stuff 177 00:12:40,840 --> 00:12:42,560 out of a dump truck in your driveway. 178 00:12:42,640 --> 00:12:44,520 If you take that and you put that in space, 179 00:12:44,600 --> 00:12:46,160 they don't have much gravity, 180 00:12:46,240 --> 00:12:48,440 but they have enough to stay bound to each other. 181 00:12:48,520 --> 00:12:50,360 And that's your rubble-pile asteroid. 182 00:12:51,520 --> 00:12:54,520 They are just barely holding on to themselves. 183 00:12:54,600 --> 00:12:56,600 If you were to come 184 00:12:56,680 --> 00:13:00,520 and just apply sufficient gravity, you could rip it apart. 185 00:13:05,680 --> 00:13:09,360 Pressure and heat from entering our atmosphere 186 00:13:09,440 --> 00:13:13,200 can also tear a rubble-pile asteroid to pieces. 187 00:13:16,200 --> 00:13:20,080 But that can be just as dangerous to a city below. 188 00:13:22,760 --> 00:13:25,040 The break-up of an asteroid in the upper atmosphere 189 00:13:25,120 --> 00:13:26,560 is pretty devastating. 190 00:13:26,640 --> 00:13:29,320 It's like a nuclear weapon going off in the atmosphere. 191 00:13:29,400 --> 00:13:31,600 Flattening buildings and breaking windows. 192 00:13:31,680 --> 00:13:34,720 There are gonna be mass casualties from an event like that, 193 00:13:34,800 --> 00:13:37,600 due to just the injuries from flying glass and debris. 194 00:13:42,800 --> 00:13:46,480 To discover what type of asteroid Apep belonged to, 195 00:13:46,560 --> 00:13:49,240 the planetary-protection team 196 00:13:49,320 --> 00:13:52,640 train their telescopes onto the space rock. 197 00:13:55,400 --> 00:13:58,280 The analysis revealed that Apep was a rocky, 198 00:13:58,360 --> 00:14:02,840 carbonaceous, chondrite asteroid, or C-type, for short. 199 00:14:05,080 --> 00:14:09,240 C-type asteroids, like Apep, are less dense than metal asteroids, 200 00:14:09,320 --> 00:14:11,920 but more solid than rubble piles. 201 00:14:13,000 --> 00:14:17,080 If a big enough C-type asteroid penetrates the Earth's atmosphere, 202 00:14:17,160 --> 00:14:20,560 it has the chance to make it all the way down to the surface. 203 00:14:20,640 --> 00:14:23,480 It doesn't necessarily burn up in the atmosphere. 204 00:14:31,160 --> 00:14:33,440 C-type asteroids pose another problem 205 00:14:33,520 --> 00:14:35,520 for the planetary-defense team. 206 00:14:37,040 --> 00:14:40,640 The C-type asteroids, like Apep, are very difficult to see 207 00:14:40,720 --> 00:14:43,720 out there, in the sky, they are very, very dark. 208 00:14:43,800 --> 00:14:46,200 They're not reflecting a lot of light back to us. 209 00:14:46,280 --> 00:14:48,840 It's almost as if they have these invisibility cloaks, 210 00:14:48,920 --> 00:14:51,240 preventing us from seeing them sneaking up on us. 211 00:14:52,360 --> 00:14:56,160 This C-type invisibility cloak made detection difficult. 212 00:14:59,240 --> 00:15:02,480 But our space tech was up to the job, 213 00:15:02,560 --> 00:15:07,280 collecting the crucial intel needed for an Apep-damage projection. 214 00:15:12,440 --> 00:15:17,080 Apep's size, mass and composition told us it would punch though 215 00:15:17,160 --> 00:15:20,400 our atmosphere and hit the surface. 216 00:15:23,360 --> 00:15:27,120 The final piece of information needed to accurately predict 217 00:15:27,200 --> 00:15:31,920 the true amount of damage from the impact was Apep's kinetic energy. 218 00:15:33,240 --> 00:15:37,560 The amount of energy the asteroid would punch into the ground. 219 00:15:38,880 --> 00:15:41,960 The kinetic energy of an object depends on the mass 220 00:15:42,040 --> 00:15:44,920 and it depends even more strongly on the speed. 221 00:15:46,240 --> 00:15:49,200 More mass creates more kinetic energy, 222 00:15:49,280 --> 00:15:51,920 but more velocity will increase 223 00:15:52,000 --> 00:15:54,960 the kinetic energy by a squared factor. 224 00:15:55,040 --> 00:15:58,480 For example, if something has twice the velocity, 225 00:15:58,560 --> 00:16:01,600 it will have four times the same energy. 226 00:16:01,680 --> 00:16:05,480 Scientists calculated how much energy Apep, 227 00:16:05,560 --> 00:16:08,560 weighing in at 123 million tons 228 00:16:08,640 --> 00:16:14,040 and travelling at 40,000 miles an hour, would transfer into the Earth. 229 00:16:15,120 --> 00:16:17,520 So what kind of energies are involved here? 230 00:16:17,600 --> 00:16:20,200 An 1,800-foot diameter asteroid. 231 00:16:20,280 --> 00:16:22,480 It's 112 million tons. 232 00:16:22,560 --> 00:16:25,320 It was travelling at 40,000 miles per hour. 233 00:16:25,400 --> 00:16:29,320 That's something on the order of 10 to the 19 Joules of energy. 234 00:16:29,400 --> 00:16:31,720 A one followed by 19 zeroes. 235 00:16:39,840 --> 00:16:42,440 1.8 x 10 to the 19 Joules 236 00:16:42,520 --> 00:16:45,600 is equivalent to 5,000 megatons. 237 00:16:45,680 --> 00:16:49,560 Take a one megaton nuke, a substantial nuclear weapon 238 00:16:49,640 --> 00:16:52,520 and then blow up 5,000 of them. 239 00:16:52,600 --> 00:16:55,480 That is roughly the same amount 240 00:16:55,560 --> 00:16:59,720 as all the nuclear weapons on Earth detonating all at once. 241 00:17:04,160 --> 00:17:07,760 A strike this large would affect the whole planet. 242 00:17:10,160 --> 00:17:12,440 This would have a global impact. 243 00:17:12,520 --> 00:17:15,640 We would have to deal with the fall-out, the literal fall-out 244 00:17:15,720 --> 00:17:18,600 from this event for potentially 1,000 years. 245 00:17:23,200 --> 00:17:25,200 Spring, 2023. 246 00:17:25,280 --> 00:17:27,320 We had two choices. 247 00:17:27,400 --> 00:17:30,880 Do nothing and face a planet-changing catastrophe 248 00:17:30,960 --> 00:17:32,840 or fight back. 249 00:17:34,000 --> 00:17:36,600 We chose to take on Apep. 250 00:17:38,160 --> 00:17:40,960 It was the first time in human history 251 00:17:41,040 --> 00:17:43,520 that we might actually be able to prevent 252 00:17:43,600 --> 00:17:45,800 a natural disaster from happening. 253 00:17:45,880 --> 00:17:47,880 We could plan and launch 254 00:17:47,960 --> 00:17:51,360 a response mission, so we don't have to get out of the way. 255 00:17:51,440 --> 00:17:53,200 Make it get out of the way instead. 256 00:17:56,160 --> 00:17:59,040 The mission's objective was simple. 257 00:17:59,120 --> 00:18:03,280 Stop the asteroid and save the world. 258 00:18:05,520 --> 00:18:07,960 We can't superglue an earthquake fault shut. 259 00:18:08,040 --> 00:18:09,760 We can't cork volcanoes. 260 00:18:11,160 --> 00:18:15,480 But planning for an asteroid impact is something we really could do. 261 00:18:19,240 --> 00:18:21,560 June, 2023. 262 00:18:23,320 --> 00:18:26,320 A large asteroid was headed towards Earth. 263 00:18:28,760 --> 00:18:32,760 It was predicted to strike on November 4th, 2029. 264 00:18:39,760 --> 00:18:41,760 To protect our planet, 265 00:18:41,840 --> 00:18:45,440 a team of scientists plan to deflect the asteroid. 266 00:18:48,560 --> 00:18:53,040 A 1,800-foot-wide asteroid was headed towards the Earth. 267 00:18:53,120 --> 00:18:57,480 We needed it to go in, literally, any other direction. 268 00:18:58,560 --> 00:19:01,400 So how could we push Apep off-course? 269 00:19:04,880 --> 00:19:08,080 Scientists found a clue in the asteroid belt. 270 00:19:11,960 --> 00:19:15,200 Sometimes, the lumps of space debris collide 271 00:19:15,280 --> 00:19:17,840 and change their trajectory. 272 00:19:18,920 --> 00:19:22,320 Maybe we could replicate this and deflect Apep. 273 00:19:23,400 --> 00:19:26,120 We could try to deflect the asteroid and change its orbit, 274 00:19:26,200 --> 00:19:28,200 so that it actually misses the Earth. 275 00:19:28,280 --> 00:19:31,560 If we do it early enough, it may not be much. 276 00:19:31,640 --> 00:19:34,600 Less than half a millimeter per second. 277 00:19:34,680 --> 00:19:36,680 But that is enough. 278 00:19:36,760 --> 00:19:40,480 These asteroids travel for millions of miles. 279 00:19:40,560 --> 00:19:44,720 And so, over the course of days, weeks, months and years, 280 00:19:44,800 --> 00:19:47,600 it will have a radically different orbit. 281 00:19:48,680 --> 00:19:50,680 Sounds simple. 282 00:19:50,760 --> 00:19:53,880 Send up a rocket with a robotic space probe, 283 00:19:53,960 --> 00:19:56,200 travel millions of miles, 284 00:19:56,280 --> 00:19:58,880 then knock Apep away from Earth. 285 00:19:58,960 --> 00:20:00,720 Piece of cake! 286 00:20:03,320 --> 00:20:06,320 In the movies, when there's a threatening asteroid that's found, 287 00:20:06,400 --> 00:20:09,600 there is always a rocket on the pad ready to go after that. 288 00:20:09,680 --> 00:20:11,280 That's not the case in real life. 289 00:20:12,840 --> 00:20:15,040 It takes years to design the mission, 290 00:20:15,120 --> 00:20:16,920 to build the satellite, to launch it. 291 00:20:17,000 --> 00:20:18,760 Then it has to get there 292 00:20:18,840 --> 00:20:21,960 and that might be millions of miles away from Earth. 293 00:20:23,040 --> 00:20:25,920 Fortunately, Earth had a head-start. 294 00:20:26,000 --> 00:20:28,480 We detected Apep early. 295 00:20:30,840 --> 00:20:34,360 And we'd already built an asteroid deflector. 296 00:20:35,440 --> 00:20:38,880 Called the Double Asteroid Redirection Test. 297 00:20:38,960 --> 00:20:41,120 Or DART, for short. 298 00:20:43,520 --> 00:20:47,760 In 2021, we sent DART 6.8 million miles 299 00:20:47,840 --> 00:20:52,000 to rendezvous with an asteroid called Didymos. 300 00:20:52,080 --> 00:20:54,880 Didymos posed no threat to Earth, 301 00:20:54,960 --> 00:20:57,920 but allowed us to test the technology. 302 00:20:59,240 --> 00:21:03,400 The asteroid called Didymos has a small moon asteroid going around it. 303 00:21:03,480 --> 00:21:06,880 The point of the DART mission was to send an impactor 304 00:21:06,960 --> 00:21:09,240 into this little moon and see how much 305 00:21:09,320 --> 00:21:11,520 we nudge it off the orbit that it is in. 306 00:21:13,320 --> 00:21:16,920 The lessons learned from DART would inspire a new mission. 307 00:21:19,920 --> 00:21:21,960 November 2025. 308 00:21:22,880 --> 00:21:25,280 We launched the DAFE mission. 309 00:21:25,360 --> 00:21:27,960 Deflect Apep away from Earth. 310 00:21:29,960 --> 00:21:32,720 This wasn't a test run to a safe asteroid. 311 00:21:32,800 --> 00:21:34,680 This was the real deal. 312 00:21:34,760 --> 00:21:36,960 A mission to save our planet. 313 00:21:38,040 --> 00:21:40,840 It was an enormous technical challenge 314 00:21:40,920 --> 00:21:43,680 and we had no idea if it would work. 315 00:21:45,320 --> 00:21:48,800 When you think about a spacecraft going from Earth 316 00:21:48,880 --> 00:21:51,600 millions of miles away to hit an asteroid, 317 00:21:51,680 --> 00:21:54,560 at an exact point in time and an exact point in space, 318 00:21:54,640 --> 00:21:56,480 it's really the ultimate bull's-eye. 319 00:21:57,560 --> 00:22:00,720 It's like trying to hit one bullet with another bullet, 320 00:22:00,800 --> 00:22:03,520 launched from the other side of the continent. 321 00:22:05,600 --> 00:22:07,400 November 2028. 322 00:22:08,600 --> 00:22:11,280 After three years in space, 323 00:22:11,360 --> 00:22:13,760 DAFE arrived at Apep. 324 00:22:16,640 --> 00:22:19,640 This was our last chance. This was our only chance. 325 00:22:23,200 --> 00:22:27,920 The kinetic-impactor smashed into Apep at 14,000 miles an hour. 326 00:22:34,320 --> 00:22:38,200 On Earth, telescopes and radar track the collision. 327 00:22:39,360 --> 00:22:40,960 Did it work? 328 00:22:41,040 --> 00:22:43,240 Did we push the asteroid off-course? 329 00:22:44,320 --> 00:22:48,560 At first glance, the mission worked. We deflected Apep away from us. 330 00:22:51,320 --> 00:22:53,520 It looked like the mission worked. 331 00:22:56,440 --> 00:22:58,280 As an astronomer and, you know, 332 00:22:58,360 --> 00:23:01,360 a human who has to live on this planet, I was very happy. 333 00:23:01,440 --> 00:23:04,400 Right? We've just, literally, saved the world. 334 00:23:04,480 --> 00:23:07,480 But the happiness was short-lived. 335 00:23:07,560 --> 00:23:09,920 There was a problem. 336 00:23:10,000 --> 00:23:13,640 The collision had pushed Apep away from Earth... 337 00:23:17,120 --> 00:23:21,280 ...but it also sheared off a 300-foot chunk of rock. 338 00:23:23,320 --> 00:23:25,320 This smaller asteroid, 339 00:23:25,400 --> 00:23:29,000 called Apep 2.0, could still be a significant threat. 340 00:23:32,400 --> 00:23:35,400 A 300-foot chunk of rock is still very, very large. 341 00:23:37,000 --> 00:23:40,320 300 feet wide. That's almost a football field. 342 00:23:41,840 --> 00:23:45,240 The important thing we needed to know, was it going to hit us? 343 00:23:46,400 --> 00:23:48,440 And, if so, where is it gonna hit us? 344 00:23:50,720 --> 00:23:53,360 March 2029. 345 00:23:53,440 --> 00:23:55,000 We got our answer. 346 00:23:55,080 --> 00:23:57,080 Its point of impact? 347 00:23:57,160 --> 00:23:59,960 The east coast of the United States. 348 00:24:01,080 --> 00:24:04,680 With New York City in the firing line. 349 00:24:07,440 --> 00:24:10,480 A smaller chunk headed for New York City? 350 00:24:10,560 --> 00:24:13,240 This was the worst-case scenario. 351 00:24:19,360 --> 00:24:21,240 June 2029. 352 00:24:22,320 --> 00:24:23,920 Five months to impact. 353 00:24:25,320 --> 00:24:28,000 The future looked bleak for New York, 354 00:24:28,080 --> 00:24:30,640 but it wasn't the time to give up. 355 00:24:31,760 --> 00:24:36,240 They reassessed an idea first suggested to destroy the original 356 00:24:36,320 --> 00:24:38,320 1,800-foot Apep. 357 00:24:39,560 --> 00:24:40,880 A nuclear strike. 358 00:24:42,560 --> 00:24:44,840 It had worked inArmageddon. 359 00:24:44,920 --> 00:24:47,480 Maybe it would work in real life. 360 00:24:47,560 --> 00:24:51,760 However, studies revealed that nuking an asteroid 361 00:24:51,840 --> 00:24:56,040 wasn't as simple as it looks in a Hollywood movie. 362 00:24:56,120 --> 00:24:58,880 Hey, let's blow it up! Let's nuke it! Right? Well... 363 00:24:58,960 --> 00:25:02,280 instead of one big problem, now you have slightly smaller problems. 364 00:25:02,360 --> 00:25:05,760 And they're radioactive, by the way. So you don't want to do that. 365 00:25:07,760 --> 00:25:12,080 Computer simulations revealed that even the world's largest 366 00:25:12,160 --> 00:25:16,040 nuclear weapon had only 1% of the energy needed 367 00:25:16,120 --> 00:25:19,680 to destroy the original 1,800-foot Apep. 368 00:25:21,920 --> 00:25:25,640 We needed the world's most powerful nuclear weapon 369 00:25:25,720 --> 00:25:28,400 and 99 of its best friends. 370 00:25:28,480 --> 00:25:30,240 Launch them all simultaneously 371 00:25:30,320 --> 00:25:33,440 and have them simultaneously hit the asteroid. 372 00:25:33,520 --> 00:25:37,360 It was simply beyond our technological capabilities. 373 00:25:39,320 --> 00:25:42,480 Fortunately, thanks to the DAFE mission, 374 00:25:42,560 --> 00:25:46,000 we only had to take out the 300-foot Apep 2.0. 375 00:25:51,760 --> 00:25:55,440 Could we blow this smaller asteroid out of the sky? 376 00:25:58,360 --> 00:25:59,360 Maybe. 377 00:25:59,440 --> 00:26:04,000 But launching a nuclear Hail Mary would be very controversial. 378 00:26:06,160 --> 00:26:09,160 Nuclear devices are the most... 379 00:26:09,240 --> 00:26:12,240 powerful, really, one of the most 380 00:26:12,320 --> 00:26:16,760 emotional things that humans have ever invented. 381 00:26:19,160 --> 00:26:22,760 They are the most powerful tool in our toolbox. 382 00:26:22,840 --> 00:26:26,600 We've got a hammer and it's a very big hammer, 383 00:26:26,680 --> 00:26:30,280 but there are a lot of concerns with them. 384 00:26:30,360 --> 00:26:34,680 They cannot be tested in space, according to international law. 385 00:26:36,200 --> 00:26:38,640 Without being able to test nukes in space, 386 00:26:38,720 --> 00:26:40,920 they were considered too big a risk. 387 00:26:45,800 --> 00:26:49,200 But New York had one, final, potential savior. 388 00:26:50,800 --> 00:26:52,800 The Earth itself. 389 00:26:56,320 --> 00:26:58,120 2013. 390 00:26:58,200 --> 00:27:00,720 Chelyabinsk, Russia. 391 00:27:00,800 --> 00:27:03,800 An asteroid blew up in the atmosphere. 392 00:27:06,600 --> 00:27:08,800 It didn't make it all the way to the surface. 393 00:27:08,880 --> 00:27:11,880 The people in Chelyabinsk were very lucky, because of that. 394 00:27:12,960 --> 00:27:17,360 The 60-foot-wide Chelyabinsk asteroid was rocky, like Apep. 395 00:27:18,440 --> 00:27:20,920 It moved at a similar velocity. 396 00:27:21,000 --> 00:27:23,400 Around 40,000 miles an hour. 397 00:27:24,640 --> 00:27:28,360 But it met its match, when it entered Earth's atmosphere. 398 00:27:29,760 --> 00:27:32,240 Earth's atmosphere doesn't look like much. 399 00:27:32,320 --> 00:27:33,920 You think, "Oh, it's just air." 400 00:27:34,000 --> 00:27:35,720 But all of those molecules 401 00:27:35,800 --> 00:27:38,200 actually exert pressure on the front edge of the asteroid, 402 00:27:38,280 --> 00:27:40,480 slowing it down and heating it up. 403 00:27:41,560 --> 00:27:44,840 The rock heated up and began to crumble and explode, 404 00:27:44,920 --> 00:27:46,200 as it came through. 405 00:27:47,320 --> 00:27:50,520 The mid-air explosion, called "an air burst", 406 00:27:50,600 --> 00:27:54,560 released more energy than 440,000 tons of TNT. 407 00:28:00,880 --> 00:28:02,680 The shockwave travelled 100 miles, 408 00:28:04,160 --> 00:28:05,760 damaging 7,000 buildings 409 00:28:07,040 --> 00:28:08,920 and injuring 1,500 people. 410 00:28:10,320 --> 00:28:14,320 But a ground strike hitting a city would have been a lot worse. 411 00:28:21,520 --> 00:28:26,240 Apep 2.0 was five times larger than the Chelyabinsk rock. 412 00:28:28,320 --> 00:28:31,120 Would it break up, during its ten-second trip, 413 00:28:31,200 --> 00:28:33,240 down through the atmosphere? 414 00:28:33,320 --> 00:28:35,600 Or would it pierce right through? 415 00:28:37,640 --> 00:28:41,120 The planetary-defense team ran simulations. 416 00:28:44,120 --> 00:28:46,320 As that comes through Earth's atmosphere, 417 00:28:46,400 --> 00:28:48,880 some of that hot air can get into the cracks. 418 00:28:50,680 --> 00:28:52,800 Friction and pressure would heat 419 00:28:52,880 --> 00:28:54,800 Apep 2.0's surface 420 00:28:54,880 --> 00:28:57,600 to thousands of degrees Fahrenheit. 421 00:28:58,680 --> 00:29:01,560 At those temperatures, even rock burns. 422 00:29:02,720 --> 00:29:07,280 We would see this flaming monster of death coming, 423 00:29:07,360 --> 00:29:10,800 racing through our atmosphere. 424 00:29:10,880 --> 00:29:14,440 There are gonna be pieces of debris vaporizing and coming off of it. 425 00:29:14,520 --> 00:29:18,280 So you get these flashes of light that happen, one after another. 426 00:29:18,360 --> 00:29:20,880 Pop! Pop! Pop! Pop! As these things are blowing up. 427 00:29:26,320 --> 00:29:31,040 The computer simulations showed that the extra bulk of Apep 2.0 428 00:29:31,120 --> 00:29:33,800 would stop it from blowing up. 429 00:29:36,480 --> 00:29:39,480 Some of the asteroid would blast away, 430 00:29:39,560 --> 00:29:43,560 but most of the space rock would reach the Earth's surface. 431 00:29:45,560 --> 00:29:47,560 So that close to the actual impact, 432 00:29:47,640 --> 00:29:49,840 we pretty much just had to hunker down and take it. 433 00:29:53,320 --> 00:29:56,520 The prospects for New York City were grim. 434 00:29:57,600 --> 00:30:00,120 It was facing annihilation. 435 00:30:07,400 --> 00:30:11,360 October 2029. Three weeks to impact. 436 00:30:13,800 --> 00:30:17,080 For the citizens of the New York Metropolitan Area, 437 00:30:17,160 --> 00:30:19,160 there was only one goal. 438 00:30:21,080 --> 00:30:23,080 Get out of the firing line. 439 00:30:27,440 --> 00:30:31,160 Now we had to have the plans in place to evacuate these cities. 440 00:30:31,240 --> 00:30:34,800 It was a major emergency for New York and its citizens. 441 00:30:36,480 --> 00:30:38,840 Time to move out of the way. 442 00:30:39,920 --> 00:30:43,520 To work out who should evacuate and to where, the scientists ran 443 00:30:43,600 --> 00:30:47,000 detailed projections of the potential blast area. 444 00:30:49,000 --> 00:30:52,120 There's an ellipse there, that we call the hazard ellipse. 445 00:30:52,200 --> 00:30:55,600 That says, somewhere in this area is where the asteroid will hit. 446 00:30:55,680 --> 00:30:58,120 That means there's a little wiggle room 447 00:30:58,200 --> 00:31:00,880 and a range of areas that are in danger. 448 00:31:02,360 --> 00:31:05,080 Based on the hazard-ellipse projections, 449 00:31:05,160 --> 00:31:08,240 the government issued evacuation orders 450 00:31:08,320 --> 00:31:10,800 for the Tri-State area 451 00:31:10,880 --> 00:31:13,880 and as far south as Philadelphia. 452 00:31:14,960 --> 00:31:18,160 It was the biggest evacuation in US history. 453 00:31:19,440 --> 00:31:21,440 Millions were displaced. 454 00:31:21,520 --> 00:31:23,440 It was physically horrific. 455 00:31:26,280 --> 00:31:28,240 I live in the New York Metropolitan Area. 456 00:31:28,320 --> 00:31:31,840 It was horrible for me and my family and my friends, 457 00:31:31,920 --> 00:31:33,920 but we can't just sit here 458 00:31:34,000 --> 00:31:37,720 and cross our fingers and hope that we don't get struck. 459 00:31:40,200 --> 00:31:43,680 The freeways out of the city were jammed. 460 00:31:45,720 --> 00:31:47,600 Trains were packed. 461 00:31:48,680 --> 00:31:51,400 Over 23 million people evacuated. 462 00:31:52,480 --> 00:31:54,960 Leaving behind a deserted city. 463 00:31:58,120 --> 00:32:01,280 Computer models showed that the epicenter of the strike 464 00:32:01,360 --> 00:32:02,960 would be Manhattan. 465 00:32:05,680 --> 00:32:09,560 The blast would reduce the city to rubble and ash. 466 00:32:10,960 --> 00:32:14,520 There would be a one-mile-wide crater resulting from it. 467 00:32:14,600 --> 00:32:17,240 So deep that it would actually take the entire subway system 468 00:32:17,320 --> 00:32:18,640 and turn it upside down 469 00:32:18,720 --> 00:32:20,960 and lay it onto the rim of the crater. 470 00:32:22,480 --> 00:32:24,920 You would have a magnitude-five earthquake 471 00:32:25,000 --> 00:32:27,000 at even six miles away from that 472 00:32:27,080 --> 00:32:30,680 and there would be a big air blast and 400 miles an hour winds. 473 00:32:32,800 --> 00:32:35,440 Something as light as a pencil could be a lethal weapon, 474 00:32:35,520 --> 00:32:37,520 when picked up by a shock wave like that. 475 00:32:38,640 --> 00:32:42,280 As the crater is blasting out and excavating itself, 476 00:32:42,360 --> 00:32:46,120 there would be little blobs of molten rock, 477 00:32:46,200 --> 00:32:48,960 that get thrown out in this wave, 478 00:32:49,040 --> 00:32:51,880 going faster than the speed of sound. 479 00:32:51,960 --> 00:32:54,080 Like drops of fiery rain, if you will, 480 00:32:54,160 --> 00:32:56,560 landing back miles away from the crater. 481 00:33:01,320 --> 00:33:03,520 The city would be on fire. 482 00:33:05,880 --> 00:33:10,040 So, um, there's just no upside to this. There's nothing good. 483 00:33:10,120 --> 00:33:12,680 It's just all from bad to horrific. 484 00:33:14,480 --> 00:33:17,280 But New York is by the ocean. 485 00:33:17,360 --> 00:33:21,240 What would happen if Apep 2.0 hit the sea? 486 00:33:26,360 --> 00:33:30,520 Detailed simulations have revealed two very different outcomes 487 00:33:30,600 --> 00:33:34,160 for an asteroid hitting the ocean at high speeds. 488 00:33:37,600 --> 00:33:41,280 If a giant asteroid strikes the deep ocean, 489 00:33:41,360 --> 00:33:45,520 less than 1% of its energy gets converted into waves. 490 00:33:45,600 --> 00:33:47,400 Those waves quickly disperse. 491 00:33:47,480 --> 00:33:50,080 They quickly lose energy as they travel. 492 00:33:50,160 --> 00:33:52,560 By the time they reach the coast, 493 00:33:52,640 --> 00:33:55,040 it might just be a little ripple. 494 00:33:55,120 --> 00:33:57,320 You might not even be able to surf on it. 495 00:34:03,400 --> 00:34:06,520 If the asteroid hits shallow coastal waters... 496 00:34:08,120 --> 00:34:11,720 ...it could cause significant damage along the shoreline. 497 00:34:13,400 --> 00:34:16,760 If an asteroid the size of Apep hits the continental shelf, 498 00:34:16,840 --> 00:34:18,960 where the water is relatively shallow, 499 00:34:19,040 --> 00:34:21,600 then it could potentially cause a tsunami. 500 00:34:25,680 --> 00:34:28,480 But that would just be the start of the problems. 501 00:34:31,720 --> 00:34:33,720 With a shallow-water impact, 502 00:34:33,800 --> 00:34:36,120 huge amounts of steam are generated, 503 00:34:36,200 --> 00:34:40,040 basically, by the energy of that impactor vaporizing all the water. 504 00:34:40,120 --> 00:34:43,080 All the water is then put up into the atmosphere. 505 00:34:43,160 --> 00:34:45,600 Water is a really good greenhouse gas. 506 00:34:45,680 --> 00:34:48,880 So you have warming from the launch of water up into the atmosphere 507 00:34:48,960 --> 00:34:51,560 and you have cooling from all of the ash and the dust. 508 00:34:57,480 --> 00:35:01,480 A short bout of warming would be followed by a brutal winter. 509 00:35:02,600 --> 00:35:04,600 Crops would fail. 510 00:35:05,880 --> 00:35:10,880 This impact has so many horrible follow-on consequences. 511 00:35:10,960 --> 00:35:14,120 That tells us how difficult it would be 512 00:35:14,200 --> 00:35:17,200 to rebuild from an event like this. 513 00:35:20,720 --> 00:35:25,040 The Eastern Seaboard would suffer a serious economic downturn. 514 00:35:25,120 --> 00:35:28,080 It would take decades to recover. 515 00:35:33,400 --> 00:35:36,400 As the asteroid edged closer to Earth, 516 00:35:36,480 --> 00:35:39,600 observations would normally be carried out by 517 00:35:39,680 --> 00:35:42,120 the Arecibo Radio Observatory. 518 00:35:42,200 --> 00:35:45,320 The telescope's radar detectors could give us 519 00:35:45,400 --> 00:35:48,520 vital, last-minute intel on the space rock. 520 00:35:49,920 --> 00:35:53,960 You emit a series of pulses to the asteroid. You have to know where 521 00:35:54,040 --> 00:35:57,040 the asteroid is, by the way, because it's a focused beam. 522 00:35:57,120 --> 00:35:59,880 And the asteroid will reflect those radar signals 523 00:35:59,960 --> 00:36:02,160 and you pick up the echoes. 524 00:36:03,280 --> 00:36:05,760 But, back in December, 2020, 525 00:36:05,840 --> 00:36:08,840 Arecibo's giant radio disc collapsed. 526 00:36:13,480 --> 00:36:17,320 A key line in our defenses was suddenly out of action. 527 00:36:18,840 --> 00:36:22,920 Losing Arecibo was a disaster for us, in planetary defense. 528 00:36:23,000 --> 00:36:25,720 Arecibo allowed us to do spacecraft-level reconnaissance 529 00:36:25,800 --> 00:36:26,880 of near-Earth asteroids. 530 00:36:26,960 --> 00:36:29,960 We could see them. We could see the details on their surfaces. 531 00:36:30,040 --> 00:36:32,840 It allowed us to very precisely track where they're going 532 00:36:32,920 --> 00:36:34,920 and follow up the telescopic discoveries. 533 00:36:36,520 --> 00:36:39,120 So we can no longer use the Arecibo data. 534 00:36:39,200 --> 00:36:43,040 We do have the Goldstone Antenna, however, which is a little smaller, 535 00:36:43,120 --> 00:36:45,360 in the Mojave Desert, in California. 536 00:36:45,440 --> 00:36:47,960 It is able to bounce radar signals off the asteroids. 537 00:36:48,040 --> 00:36:51,160 We do use that a lot to measure distances to asteroids. 538 00:36:53,920 --> 00:36:59,080 November 3rd, 2029. One day until impact. 539 00:37:00,400 --> 00:37:04,160 The space rock was just 400,000 miles away. 540 00:37:05,280 --> 00:37:09,600 And traveling 13 times faster than a F-15 fighter jet. 541 00:37:11,480 --> 00:37:13,200 It was, first, a dim star 542 00:37:13,280 --> 00:37:16,480 and then a brighter star and then, in the hours before, 543 00:37:16,560 --> 00:37:19,320 you could actually see it approaching the Earth. 544 00:37:19,400 --> 00:37:22,280 New York looked outmatched. 545 00:37:22,360 --> 00:37:25,240 It looked like Apep would win, 546 00:37:25,320 --> 00:37:28,480 but this was not the end of the game. 547 00:37:29,520 --> 00:37:32,520 Earth had one final card to play. 548 00:37:38,680 --> 00:37:41,080 November 4th, 2029. 549 00:37:42,880 --> 00:37:46,480 The 300-foot Apep 2.0 reached Earth. 550 00:37:48,560 --> 00:37:51,360 The space rock pierced our atmosphere 551 00:37:51,440 --> 00:37:54,040 and hurtled towards the surface. 552 00:38:07,360 --> 00:38:11,160 Then the asteroid passed over Manhattan. 553 00:38:13,440 --> 00:38:15,720 Over Brooklyn 554 00:38:15,800 --> 00:38:18,360 and over Coney Island. 555 00:38:20,480 --> 00:38:24,640 It hit deep ocean, 350 miles off the coast. 556 00:38:31,480 --> 00:38:34,480 Apep 2.0 missed New York. 557 00:38:35,200 --> 00:38:36,560 But how? 558 00:38:39,280 --> 00:38:42,280 Our seven-year battle with the asteroid was resolved 559 00:38:42,360 --> 00:38:44,360 in a matter of seconds, 560 00:38:44,440 --> 00:38:47,240 thanks to orbital dynamics. 561 00:38:48,320 --> 00:38:50,920 The orbit of the asteroid and the orbit of the Earth 562 00:38:51,000 --> 00:38:54,600 and the way the Earth spins, in this great cosmic ballet, 563 00:38:54,680 --> 00:38:57,680 means that a few seconds, earlier or later, 564 00:38:57,760 --> 00:39:01,360 makes the difference between hitting the ocean and hitting land. 565 00:39:03,080 --> 00:39:06,800 The Earth rotates at 1,000 miles an hour 566 00:39:06,880 --> 00:39:11,200 and orbits the sun at close to 65,000 miles an hour. 567 00:39:11,280 --> 00:39:15,080 Apep orbited at 40,000 miles an hour, 568 00:39:15,160 --> 00:39:17,320 but Apep 2.0 569 00:39:17,400 --> 00:39:20,720 travelled fractionally slower. 570 00:39:22,480 --> 00:39:25,480 The impact of the DAFE mission that sheared off 571 00:39:25,560 --> 00:39:29,560 the 300-foot chunk of rock had also slowed it down. 572 00:39:30,560 --> 00:39:34,320 Slowing down Apep changed when it was gonna intersect the Earth, 573 00:39:34,400 --> 00:39:36,880 so New York spun out of the crosshairs. 574 00:39:41,000 --> 00:39:44,280 Apep 2.0 hit the ocean and exploded, 575 00:39:45,200 --> 00:39:46,960 breaking up instantly. 576 00:39:49,480 --> 00:39:52,480 The strike threw up a wall of water into the air, 577 00:39:52,560 --> 00:39:54,840 followed by huge clouds of steam. 578 00:39:56,840 --> 00:40:01,000 The impact created small surface waves, that quickly died away. 579 00:40:02,840 --> 00:40:06,840 It's like doing a gigantic interplanetary belly flop. 580 00:40:06,920 --> 00:40:09,880 It evaporates, it obliterates and it generates 581 00:40:09,960 --> 00:40:12,560 an enormous amount of steam and it sets up shockwaves. 582 00:40:12,640 --> 00:40:14,640 All that energy is still released, 583 00:40:14,720 --> 00:40:17,400 but the ocean is capable of absorbing it. 584 00:40:21,080 --> 00:40:24,880 New York dodged a bullet and escaped unscathed. 585 00:40:26,560 --> 00:40:30,720 Thanks to the dedication, ingenuity and enterprise 586 00:40:30,800 --> 00:40:33,280 of a global team of scientists. 587 00:40:39,640 --> 00:40:42,640 Apep was an imaginary asteroid, 588 00:40:42,720 --> 00:40:47,920 but there are many potentially hazardous space rocks out there. 589 00:40:50,480 --> 00:40:54,640 Thankfully, this was a fictional scenario, a thought exercise, 590 00:40:54,720 --> 00:40:58,160 but it's informed by our real, actual knowledge, 591 00:40:58,240 --> 00:41:00,400 that we've gained over the years of dealing with 592 00:41:00,480 --> 00:41:02,200 potentially close approaches 593 00:41:02,280 --> 00:41:05,680 and the hazards from real asteroids that we actually know about. 594 00:41:07,720 --> 00:41:12,720 Asteroid research is a good insurance policy for our species. 595 00:41:12,800 --> 00:41:14,880 Hopefully, we will never need 596 00:41:14,960 --> 00:41:17,320 to carry these things out for real. 597 00:41:17,400 --> 00:41:19,760 Large asteroid strikes are rare... 598 00:41:21,480 --> 00:41:23,640 ...but we cannot be complacent. 599 00:41:28,440 --> 00:41:30,600 The most important thing to do 600 00:41:30,680 --> 00:41:33,440 in planetary defense is to find them early. 601 00:41:33,520 --> 00:41:35,520 If we find them early, we have a chance 602 00:41:35,600 --> 00:41:37,000 to predict the possible impacts 603 00:41:37,080 --> 00:41:39,080 and we have a chance to mitigate them. 604 00:41:39,160 --> 00:41:43,600 If we talk about the large ones, larger than, you know, half a mile, 605 00:41:43,680 --> 00:41:48,400 then we know that there are about 940, in total, of that population. 606 00:41:48,480 --> 00:41:51,440 What that means is that we've discovered 607 00:41:51,520 --> 00:41:54,080 96% of that size asteroid, 608 00:41:54,160 --> 00:41:56,920 so we're doing really well with the large asteroids. 609 00:42:00,880 --> 00:42:05,120 But the smaller the asteroids get, the harder they become to track 610 00:42:05,200 --> 00:42:07,680 and some of the smaller ones 611 00:42:07,760 --> 00:42:10,240 could still cause us damage. 612 00:42:11,320 --> 00:42:15,800 So we are adding the Near-Earth Object Surveyor to our arsenal, 613 00:42:15,880 --> 00:42:17,680 to find the smaller threats 614 00:42:17,760 --> 00:42:19,960 that we might otherwise miss. 615 00:42:21,040 --> 00:42:23,440 NEO Surveyor is a critical mission. 616 00:42:23,520 --> 00:42:25,120 It's an infrared camera. 617 00:42:25,200 --> 00:42:28,840 In infrared, asteroids are easier to see. They're brighter than they are 618 00:42:28,920 --> 00:42:31,120 in visible light, so they jump out at you. 619 00:42:31,200 --> 00:42:34,080 You can track them and that is the most important thing. 620 00:42:35,160 --> 00:42:38,360 It will be sensitive enough that it can discover these asteroids 621 00:42:38,440 --> 00:42:40,320 that are 140m, 622 00:42:40,400 --> 00:42:42,520 460 feet and larger 623 00:42:42,600 --> 00:42:46,800 and to find enough of them, over its five to ten year lifetime, 624 00:42:46,880 --> 00:42:51,000 that we will reach the 90% goal that Congress has assigned us. 625 00:42:51,080 --> 00:42:55,080 So we're getting there, but we have more work to do. 626 00:43:02,760 --> 00:43:04,760 Our technology is improving. 627 00:43:06,040 --> 00:43:09,240 So we can detect incoming space rocks earlier. 628 00:43:11,120 --> 00:43:13,920 But we need to be vigilant, 629 00:43:14,000 --> 00:43:18,560 because the threat from asteroids is not going away. 630 00:43:19,840 --> 00:43:24,000 Apart from climate change, asteroid strikes are, in my opinion, 631 00:43:24,080 --> 00:43:26,840 the most dangerous thing to life on Earth. 632 00:43:26,920 --> 00:43:29,680 A lot of the time, the question I get is, 633 00:43:29,760 --> 00:43:31,640 "What are the chances of this happening?" 634 00:43:31,720 --> 00:43:34,520 And they don't like the answer, because I say, "100%." 635 00:43:36,600 --> 00:43:40,920 It takes time. It may not be for a week, a month, a year, a century, 636 00:43:41,000 --> 00:43:44,400 but studying these asteroids informs us on what we can do 637 00:43:44,480 --> 00:43:46,320 to prevent an impact. 638 00:43:46,400 --> 00:43:49,000 There are a lot of natural disasters that we can do 639 00:43:49,080 --> 00:43:50,680 nothing about, earthquakes, 640 00:43:50,760 --> 00:43:53,280 hurricanes, but here is something 641 00:43:53,360 --> 00:43:55,880 way more devastating than any of those 642 00:43:55,960 --> 00:43:57,960 and we can prevent them. 643 00:43:58,040 --> 00:44:01,040 So we have to keep our eyes on the prize 644 00:44:01,120 --> 00:44:02,960 and our eyes on the skies. 645 00:44:03,040 --> 00:44:05,040 Subtitling by Iyuno 53242

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