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Ah, the charming British High Street
or Main Street, if you're American,
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with its cobbled streets,
picturesque pubs and cutesy bakeries.
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But there's an uncomfortable truth
lurking behind the storefronts
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Because a lot of these stores are not owned
by independent shop keepers or even
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big multinationals.
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Instead, they're controlled
by private equity investors.
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In fact, private equity has flown into the UK
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at an unprecedented rate since Brexit,
hoovering up scores of high street names
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such as Burger King, New Look and Pizza Express.
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This is a story about the Private Equity raid on
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some of the best known high street companies in the UK
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in the aftermath of both Brexit and the Covid-19 pandemic.
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Now, as the UK
adjusts to new economic realities
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the private equity boom
could pose a problem
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for the future of the British high street
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and the millions of people who work on it,
because most private equity is dependent
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on one thing:
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Debt.
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Let’s start by unpacking how
private equity works, and in particular,
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the main tool in the industry's
arsenal - the leveraged buyout.
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Okay, so
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imagine you want to buy a little shop
for, say, 500,000 pounds.
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You use 100,000 of your own money
to pay for the deposit,
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but you borrow the remaining 400,000
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usually from a bank.
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You spend another 50,000 pounds
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sprucing the place up, then sell it
three years later for 800,000.
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That covers your costs and whatever
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you still owe the bank
and you pocket the difference as profit.
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Now imagine that rather than you
being responsible for repaying the money
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you borrowed.
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The shop itself was responsible.
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Not you, the shop.
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You can walk off into the sunset
with all the proceeds of the sale.
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The shop’s new owner now has
to find a way of repaying what you borrowed.
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That is sort of
how leveraged buyouts work.
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You buy a company and fund much of
the purchase price with debt or leverage,
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often in the form of bonds.
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So essentially you can buy a really massive company
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and load it up with debt
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to pay for your aquisition of that company.
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And if the company goes bust,
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you don't lose as much as if you paid
for the whole thing with cash.
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Let’s get back to the UK
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to understand what’s been going on here we’re going to
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look at Morrisons.
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For much of his existence
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it was family owned and until recently
it was one of the big four supermarket chains.
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One look and you’ll know,
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our prices are low,
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whenever you shop at Morrisons.
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Look at this chart.
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It shows how Morrison's
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valuation compares to US retailers
as a multiple of their earnings.
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That's just a way of comparing companies
on a like to like basis,
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even if the firms aren't the same size.
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And in the years immediately after Brexit,
the valuations were pretty comparable.
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Until the pandemic came along.
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Then look what happened.
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The US retailers recovered
with the post-pandemic spending bump.
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Morrisons did not.
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Morrisons valuation was cheaper compared to U.S. peers
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making it quite attractive for an external buyer..
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So in 2021 we’re just coming out of Covid lockdown
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and there is a bidding war for
Morissons between Private Equity firms.
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The American firm
Clayton, Dubilier & Rice emerged victorious
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paying about
7 billion pounds in October 2021.
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Just a few months earlier
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Morrisons had been valued
at 4.5 billion pounds.
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But even that inflated
price seemed worthwhile because
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low interest rates meant it
was easy to borrow a lot of money.
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And Morrisons wasn't alone.
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Private Equity piled into Britain
in a big way in the years after Brexit.
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And outlook negative.
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Post Brexit there was a lot of uncertainty in the UK economy.
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I think that was compounded by the effects of Covid.
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And suddenly these American Private Equity companies were looking at British assets that were valued
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far less than they were just a few months ago.
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Between 2016 and 2023 Private Equity companies
spent nearly 200 billion dollars
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buying British companies.
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That compares to about 81 billion dollars
in Germany and 36 billion dollars in France.
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Essentially you walk down any UK High Street and the chances are you’re going to be looking at private equity
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owned firms on either side.
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The Body Shop, Pizza Express, Wagamamas, Byron Burgers.
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Zizzi or New Look.
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In fact there are scores of High Street brands that are now controlled by private equity and similar investors.
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And that was because British companies
in general became a lot cheaper.
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You can see that in this chart.
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Publicly traded American companies
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simply became a lot more valuable
than British ones after Brexit.
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A British firm that makes a dollar of
profit is on average given $11, a value.
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American firms get 20.
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So remember that little shop
we talked about earlier
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and how its purchase was financed
with a lot of debt?
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In the case of Morrisons, it was
something like 6.6 billion pounds.
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Here’s the important bit.
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When CD&R bought Morrisons, interest rates were low.
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But since then, they have increased.
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Around half of Morrison's debt that's around 3 billion pounds
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is affected by interest rates going up.
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So that debt is now much more expensive.
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The reason that’s a problem is that Morrisons competes with
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other supermarkets on price.
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And now it has to pay hundreds of millions
of pounds more each year in interest payments.
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They were just about making enough
money to pay their debt, which meant that
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when Aldi and Lidl came in during a cost of living crisis and cut prices, Morrisons simply couldn't keep up with them.
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Morissons simply couldn’t keep up with them.
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That's helped Aldi overtake Morrisons
as the UK's fourth biggest supermarket.
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To deal with the suffocating debt load
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Morrisons has sold assets,
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including a 2.5 billion pound deal
for its petrol stations in January.
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It's hoping that will let it offer
lower prices to shoppers.
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These problems are besetting
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a lot of the businesses
that private equity has bought.
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All of this matters because private equity
backed companies employ 1.9 million people
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in the UK and their suppliers
employ another 1.3 million people.
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When these deals go wrong, it can have real world impact.
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So it can mean higher cost of goods for consumers.
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And we can also see jobs lost.
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This is something that a number of
politicians are already quite concerned about.
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How can you ensure the increased cost
of borrowing won’t be passed on to consumers?
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We’re not about sweating assets at all.
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Our customer experience, CSI,
is improving as we speak today.
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We’re absolutely focused in
delivering value for our customers.
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We’ve seen the owners of Asda, the billionaire Issa brothers
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and TDR being hauled in front of a parliamentary committee recently where they were questioned about
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so called price gauging.
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The Bank of England has been worried about increased private equity ownership of British companies,
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they are worried about increased debt levels,
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and they are worried about the
impact it will have on the British economy.
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But with the general election on the horizon,
the solution may not be as simple
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as imposing
higher taxes on private equity deals.
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It's difficult for politicians to really crack down on private equity companies because after Brexit
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Britain has been searching for external investment and options are thinning on the ground a little bit.
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Proponents of private equity firms say that the money that they bring into the UK economy is super important,
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because there's just not that much
foreign investment coming into the country right now.
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And I think that's the line that the Labor Party, if they do come into power, is going to have to tread very carefully.
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