All language subtitles for 87031x_PR_Conditional_Prob_03_Scenarios_K_L_v1-en

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Would you like to inspect the original subtitles? These are the user uploaded subtitles that are being translated: 0 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:05,760 PETER REDDIEN: But now, let's consider some other scenarios, 1 00:00:05,760 --> 00:00:07,180 going forward. 2 00:00:07,180 --> 00:00:11,670 So individual K has come to you and wants 3 00:00:11,670 --> 00:00:17,430 to know if she's carrying this trait, 4 00:00:17,430 --> 00:00:20,830 and now there's some more events that happen. 5 00:00:20,830 --> 00:00:25,020 So let's say scenario one. 6 00:00:25,020 --> 00:00:30,600 7 00:00:30,600 --> 00:00:39,060 So in scenario one, individual K has an unaffected-- 8 00:00:39,060 --> 00:00:42,960 sorry, has an affected son. 9 00:00:42,960 --> 00:00:46,530 That's one scenario that could happen. 10 00:00:46,530 --> 00:00:56,940 Scenario two, different scenario here, 11 00:00:56,940 --> 00:01:04,739 hypothetical, individual K has an unaffected son. 12 00:01:04,739 --> 00:01:12,800 We'll call this individual L. All right. 13 00:01:12,800 --> 00:01:18,110 So scenario one, we get this new information. 14 00:01:18,110 --> 00:01:22,550 Now, what is the probability that individual K is a carrier? 15 00:01:22,550 --> 00:01:25,130 One. 16 00:01:25,130 --> 00:01:33,430 Probability K is a carrier now equals One. 17 00:01:33,430 --> 00:01:35,020 That has to be the case. 18 00:01:35,020 --> 00:01:37,840 She has to be a carrier, if she had an affected son. 19 00:01:37,840 --> 00:01:46,850 20 00:01:46,850 --> 00:01:47,350 OK. 21 00:01:47,350 --> 00:01:49,660 What about scenario two? 22 00:01:49,660 --> 00:01:51,138 She had an unaffected son. 23 00:01:51,138 --> 00:01:52,930 What's the probability that K is a carrier? 24 00:01:52,930 --> 00:01:56,210 25 00:01:56,210 --> 00:01:56,710 Yeah. 26 00:01:56,710 --> 00:01:57,740 STUDENT: 0.5 27 00:01:57,740 --> 00:01:58,490 PETER REDDIEN: OK. 28 00:01:58,490 --> 00:01:59,530 I have a 0.5. 29 00:01:59,530 --> 00:02:02,900 Raise your hand, if you think 0.5. 30 00:02:02,900 --> 00:02:03,900 OK. 31 00:02:03,900 --> 00:02:04,400 Great. 32 00:02:04,400 --> 00:02:07,370 So most people think 0.5. 33 00:02:07,370 --> 00:02:10,699 Let's say individual K hat four sons, 34 00:02:10,699 --> 00:02:13,850 and all four were unaffected. 35 00:02:13,850 --> 00:02:15,350 You'd start to think, wouldn't you 36 00:02:15,350 --> 00:02:18,950 eventually see an affected son, if she was a carrier? 37 00:02:18,950 --> 00:02:21,560 Your intuition starts feeling like the probability maybe 38 00:02:21,560 --> 00:02:22,673 is starting to change. 39 00:02:22,673 --> 00:02:24,590 Let's imagine this wasn't humans but some kind 40 00:02:24,590 --> 00:02:28,950 of other organism, frogs or some insect or something like that, 41 00:02:28,950 --> 00:02:33,980 and this individual had 100 sons, and none of the sons 42 00:02:33,980 --> 00:02:36,540 were affected. 43 00:02:36,540 --> 00:02:38,670 Now, wouldn't you think it's starting 44 00:02:38,670 --> 00:02:43,990 to get less likely that this individual is a carrier? 45 00:02:43,990 --> 00:02:45,640 What do you think? 46 00:02:45,640 --> 00:02:48,005 If this individual is some beetle or something, had 47 00:02:48,005 --> 00:02:50,380 100 male offspring that you could score, and none of them 48 00:02:50,380 --> 00:02:52,570 had the trait, would you think the probability 49 00:02:52,570 --> 00:02:58,490 that that individual was a carrier was still 0.5 or lower? 50 00:02:58,490 --> 00:03:01,160 Lower, your intuition starts feeling like lower, 51 00:03:01,160 --> 00:03:03,050 and it is lower. 52 00:03:03,050 --> 00:03:04,580 How much lower? 53 00:03:04,580 --> 00:03:07,150 Well, that's what we're going to figure out. 3637

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