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PETER REDDIEN: But now, let's consider some other scenarios,
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going forward.
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So individual K has come to you and wants
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to know if she's carrying this trait,
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and now there's some more events that happen.
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So let's say scenario one.
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So in scenario one, individual K has an unaffected--
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sorry, has an affected son.
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That's one scenario that could happen.
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Scenario two, different scenario here,
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hypothetical, individual K has an unaffected son.
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We'll call this individual L. All right.
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So scenario one, we get this new information.
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Now, what is the probability that individual K is a carrier?
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One.
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Probability K is a carrier now equals One.
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That has to be the case.
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She has to be a carrier, if she had an affected son.
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OK.
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What about scenario two?
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She had an unaffected son.
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What's the probability that K is a carrier?
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Yeah.
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STUDENT: 0.5
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PETER REDDIEN: OK.
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I have a 0.5.
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Raise your hand, if you think 0.5.
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OK.
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Great.
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So most people think 0.5.
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Let's say individual K hat four sons,
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and all four were unaffected.
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You'd start to think, wouldn't you
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eventually see an affected son, if she was a carrier?
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Your intuition starts feeling like the probability maybe
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is starting to change.
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Let's imagine this wasn't humans but some kind
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of other organism, frogs or some insect or something like that,
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and this individual had 100 sons, and none of the sons
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were affected.
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Now, wouldn't you think it's starting
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to get less likely that this individual is a carrier?
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What do you think?
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If this individual is some beetle or something, had
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100 male offspring that you could score, and none of them
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had the trait, would you think the probability
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that that individual was a carrier was still 0.5 or lower?
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Lower, your intuition starts feeling like lower,
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and it is lower.
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How much lower?
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Well, that's what we're going to figure out.
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