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Russian tactical aviation in Ukraine lost the
feeling of a safe rear area towards the end of
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2023 and in December 2023 suffered some of the
heaviest losses in a very short period of time.
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The AFU General Staff reported that Russia lost
46 combat aircraft in Ukraine in 2023 alone,
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without accounting for friendly fire
incidents, crashes on Russian territory,
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and unexplained occurrences at
Russian airfields in the rear area.
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Initially, in the first days after the invasion,
the Russian command claimed full control of the
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airspace over Ukraine, stating that Ukrainian
air defense had been neutralized. However,
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by the end of 2023, it became perilous for
Russian aviation not only to stay in the
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airspace of the occupied territories but
also in their own and on their airfields.
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The end of 2023 changes the balance of
power in the airspace, in which Russian
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aviation used its virtually limitless
stockpile of guided bombs in non-stop
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mode with minimal risks for both pilots and
the machines themselves. This factor not
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only restrained the advances of the Ukrainian
defense forces but also allowed Russian forces
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to advance more effectively, especially
in the Bakhmut and now Avdiivka areas.
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But the loss of several planes at
once within one week forces the
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Russian command to urgently reconsider
the strategy of using tactical aviation.
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What is important is that so far there
has been no official information about
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how Russian aircraft were shot down
deep in the occupied territories,
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or over the Black Sea. It is unlikely that it will
appear in the near future, because it is not in
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the interests of the Ukrainian army to disclose
exactly what means are used to counter Russian
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aircraft. In turn, Russian profile platforms
and propagandists express their versions.
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The most popular assumptions
are the use of Patriot SAMs,
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as well as the appearance of F-16 fighters
in Ukraine earlier than previously announced.
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In general, both versions have
a right to life. For example,
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the range of Patriot missile defense targets
depends on the modification of missiles,
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for example, MIM-104D it leaves 160 km,
which is fully consistent with the depth
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of the rear of the temporarily occupied Kherson
region, where the Russian Su-34 were shot down.
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Similarly, the F-16 could well
have used air-to-air missiles,
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which with the support of
long-range radar detection
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aircraft, can effectively hit targets at
distances of more than 100 kilometers.
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But again, these are only versions. Versions
that confirm that the Russian Air Forces did
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not have full control of the airspace in Ukraine,
and still do not have it, and even more, by the
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end of 2023 it became unsafe for them to operate
even over the temporarily occupied territories.
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In 2023, the actions of Ukrainian
maritime drones forced the Russian
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Black Sea Fleet to flee Crimea. It is
possible that in 2024 Russian aviation
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will be forced to completely redeploy to the
territory of Russia itself, and it is not
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a fact that the close rear area for Russian
Aerospace Forces will also be safe for them.
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