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Russian tactical aviation in Ukraine lost theĀ
feeling of a safe rear area towards the end ofĀ Ā
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2023 and in December 2023 suffered some of theĀ
heaviest losses in a very short period of time.
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The AFU General Staff reported that Russia lostĀ
46 combat aircraft in Ukraine in 2023 alone,Ā Ā
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without accounting for friendly fireĀ
incidents, crashes on Russian territory,Ā Ā
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and unexplained occurrences atĀ
Russian airfields in the rear area.
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Initially, in the first days after the invasion,Ā
the Russian command claimed full control of theĀ Ā
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airspace over Ukraine, stating that UkrainianĀ
air defense had been neutralized. However,Ā Ā
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by the end of 2023, it became perilous forĀ
Russian aviation not only to stay in theĀ Ā
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airspace of the occupied territories butĀ
also in their own and on their airfields.
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The end of 2023 changes the balance ofĀ
power in the airspace, in which RussianĀ Ā
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aviation used its virtually limitlessĀ
stockpile of guided bombs in non-stopĀ Ā
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mode with minimal risks for both pilots andĀ
the machines themselves. This factor notĀ Ā
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only restrained the advances of the UkrainianĀ
defense forces but also allowed Russian forcesĀ Ā
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to advance more effectively, especiallyĀ
in the Bakhmut and now Avdiivka areas.
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But the loss of several planes atĀ
once within one week forces theĀ Ā
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Russian command to urgently reconsiderĀ
the strategy of using tactical aviation.
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What is important is that so far thereĀ
has been no official information aboutĀ Ā
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how Russian aircraft were shot downĀ
deep in the occupied territories,Ā Ā
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or over the Black Sea. It is unlikely that it willĀ
appear in the near future, because it is not inĀ Ā
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the interests of the Ukrainian army to discloseĀ
exactly what means are used to counter RussianĀ Ā
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aircraft. In turn, Russian profile platformsĀ
and propagandists express their versions.
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The most popular assumptionsĀ
are the use of Patriot SAMs,Ā Ā
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as well as the appearance of F-16 fightersĀ
in Ukraine earlier than previously announced.
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In general, both versions haveĀ
a right to life. For example,Ā Ā
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the range of Patriot missile defense targetsĀ
depends on the modification of missiles,Ā Ā
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for example, MIM-104D it leaves 160 km,Ā
which is fully consistent with the depthĀ Ā
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of the rear of the temporarily occupied KhersonĀ
region, where the Russian Su-34 were shot down.
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Similarly, the F-16 could wellĀ
have used air-to-air missiles,Ā Ā
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which with the support ofĀ
long-range radar detectionĀ Ā
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aircraft, can effectively hit targets atĀ
distances of more than 100 kilometers.
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But again, these are only versions. VersionsĀ
that confirm that the Russian Air Forces didĀ Ā
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not have full control of the airspace in Ukraine,Ā
and still do not have it, and even more, by theĀ Ā
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end of 2023 it became unsafe for them to operateĀ
even over the temporarily occupied territories.
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In 2023, the actions of UkrainianĀ
maritime drones forced the RussianĀ Ā
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Black Sea Fleet to flee Crimea. It isĀ
possible that in 2024 Russian aviationĀ Ā
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will be forced to completely redeploy to theĀ
territory of Russia itself, and it is notĀ Ā
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a fact that the close rear area for RussianĀ
Aerospace Forces will also be safe for them.
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