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British intelligence is saying
today that, unfortunately,
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the Russians have been able to advance
somewhat towards Avdiivka. What is the
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situation around the city and what are
the prospects for the Russians there now?
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First of all, we need to finally understand
why Avdiivka is so important to the Russians
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and why they have become active now, so that
we can then look at how things will play out
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in a military sense. Avdiivka has become
a political goal, Putin desperately needs
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significant successes. The strategic goal of the
invasion is to eliminate Ukrainian statehood. The
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Russian army does not achieve it, therefore, they
have decided to fulfill the task at a minimum,
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to reach the administrative borders
of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
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Avdiivka and Bakhmut are the gateways to this
task. And they will use everything they can, and
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most importantly, whom they can. Unfortunately,
their human potential is quite large.
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Let me remind you that Bakhmut was captured in
large infantry waves. If Putin ordered Avdiivka
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to be taken at any cost, this may or may not
happen. The generals are willing to put as much
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at Avdiivka as they did at Bakhmut. Battles
can be lost, it is important to win the war.
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The strategic task set for the Russian
army is to squeeze as hard as they can,
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and what will end, time will show. The fact
that sooner or later the scales will swing
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to one side or the other is inevitable. It
is crucial that it leans towards Ukraine.
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To what extent does such mass
destruction of the enemy without
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major advances form the conditions
for future offensives of the AFU?
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If we speak in the philosophical
sense of classical industrial warfare,
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and this is classical industrial warfare, we
observe the third stage of this war. That is
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the grinding of the enemy's forces and
means, whoever grinds them better will
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win in the end. It is necessary to defeat the
army, the territories will return on their own.
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Therefore, something unprecedented since World War
II is happening in numerical terms. By and large,
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if we summarize the killed and wounded, the
Ukrainians destroyed the standard complement
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of the Russian army, which was considered
the second in the world, think about it!
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In addition to 320 thousand destroyed
personnel, this figure is safely multiplied
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by a coefficient of three and we have a
million. At the beginning of this war,
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Russian forces were officially estimated to be
somewhere between 900,000 and 1,100,000 personnel.
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The AFU completely destroyed the tank fleet
of the enemy, it amounted to 3400 units,
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more than 5800 were destroyed. The artillery
fleet was completely destroyed, it amounted
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to about 5.5 thousand barrels, now the number
of destroyed is approaching 8 thousand. The
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fleet of multiple rocket launchers amounted
to 800 vehicles of all classes, more than
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900 units have already been destroyed. In terms
of aircraft it is also unprecedented, over 320
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helicopters and more than 320 airplanes. This is
considering that during the war in Afghanistan,
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the Soviet Union lost 120 helicopters and
120 aircraft over the course of 10 years.
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We see a colossal step forward, it is incredible
if you still understand that a small army 15th
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in the world in terms of power, and at
the beginning of the war ranked 22nd,
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fighting with the second army in the world.
Thanks to its nuclear capabilities, the Russian
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army remains in 2nd place. These figures cannot
be minimized, in the historical context it is
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a supergiant result. But unfortunately,
the huge human potential they have left,
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and most importantly, their mentality
to die for their homeland, for Putin,
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for greatness and who knows what else, we
cannot cancel - such is the harsh reality.
5567
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