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The offensive in the South, in
Zaporizhzhia region, continues,
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contrary to the media's perception, the
Ukrainian defense forces continue to gnaw
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through the Surovikin line meter by meter,
but there is really a count of meters per day.
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It's really very difficult there, but the AFU
is still on the offensive. Yes, it has slowed
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down a lot, but it has not stopped. There is no
deadlock or stalemate that is being talked about.
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Meanwhile, the most encouraging things
happened on the left bank of the Kherson
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region. The Russians are so used to the
fact that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are
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partisaning there on the left bank and
for some reason were so convinced that
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the Dnipro River is such a powerful obstacle
that it really became news to them when the
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marines left after the special operations
forces and were able to gain a foothold.
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It is absolutely no coincidence that
the creation of the bridgehead began
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only after Ukraine received ATACMS and pushed
enemy helicopters to more distant airfields.
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And at first there were three small footholds
that have merged into one large enough. They,
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of course, have a dream of throwing the
AFU back across the Dnipro. The entire
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front line is 1,300 kilometers long,
and about half of the sorties of all
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their front-line aviation are hitting
this one bridgehead using 500 kg bombs.
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They are also trying to dig in along the
Dnipro terrace. That is, there is a floodplain,
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which in natural conditions in the spring is
flooded, and there is a terrace, that is, what is
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above. But not significantly higher - in fact, the
terrain is as flat as a pancake. However, on this
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hypothetical elevation, they are currently digging
in, trying to create a small replica of the
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Surovikin line. They built it for 9 months back
then when they were given that time, but not now.
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Currently, there are battles for the
AFU' access to this terrace. That is,
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the AFU has taken the Dnipro floodplain where
there were no fortifications, and the next step
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is to break through their defensive line. And
the immediate task is to reach the highway that
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connects Crimea with Melitopol. If at least
just to go to this track and take under fire
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control, it is immediately very serious
complicate all logistics in the South.
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How realistic is it? 50-50, because it's
a war. It all depends on whether or not
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they withdraw their absolutely stupid
political order to storm Avdiivka. But
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while they are shackled near
Avdiivka, there are chances.
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Of course, the Russians are well aware
that if the AFU pass the terrace,
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then Perekop is next. Not through the Surovikin
line, not through Tokmak, but from here. Actually,
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as it was according to Zaluzhny's first plan
at the beginning of the summer, that is,
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before the Kakhovka dam was blown up. The stakes
are very high, and I can't imagine what resources
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and reserves they can throw there if they see that
the AFU are already advancing towards Perekop.
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But the fact that the Ukrainian side has
created such a threat to them is a very
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clear answer to all those who believe that
this year's offensive was a failure. Yes,
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it was far from a complete success, but when the
partners provided only a third of the requested
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material resources with a six-month delay,
no project is completed fully if you're given
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only 30%. Therefore, given the resources
available to the Ukrainian Armed Forces,
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and the fact that they reached the left bank of
the Dnipro, it finally puts an end to the question
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of whether this offensive was unsuccessful. Yes,
it achieved less than we all would have liked, but
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it achieved much more than I would say any other
army in the world could under such conditions.
5479
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