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The offensive in the South, in Zaporizhzhia region, continues,
contrary to the media's perception, the Ukrainian defense forces continue to gnaw
through the Surovikin line meter by meter, but there is really a count of meters per day.
It's really very difficult there, but the AFU is still on the offensive. Yes, it has slowed
down a lot, but it has not stopped. There is no deadlock or stalemate that is being talked about.
Meanwhile, the most encouraging things happened on the left bank of the Kherson
region. The Russians are so used to the fact that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are
partisaning there on the left bank and for some reason were so convinced that
the Dnipro River is such a powerful obstacle that it really became news to them when the
marines left after the special operations forces and were able to gain a foothold.
It is absolutely no coincidence that the creation of the bridgehead began
only after Ukraine received ATACMS and pushed enemy helicopters to more distant airfields.
And at first there were three small footholds that have merged into one large enough. They,
of course, have a dream of throwing the AFU back across the Dnipro. The entire
front line is 1,300 kilometers long, and about half of the sorties of all
their front-line aviation are hitting this one bridgehead using 500 kg bombs.
They are also trying to dig in along the Dnipro terrace. That is, there is a floodplain,
which in natural conditions in the spring is flooded, and there is a terrace, that is, what is
above. But not significantly higher - in fact, the terrain is as flat as a pancake. However, on this
hypothetical elevation, they are currently digging in, trying to create a small replica of the
Surovikin line. They built it for 9 months back then when they were given that time, but not now.
Currently, there are battles for the AFU' access to this terrace. That is,
the AFU has taken the Dnipro floodplain where there were no fortifications, and the next step
is to break through their defensive line. And the immediate task is to reach the highway that
connects Crimea with Melitopol. If at least just to go to this track and take under fire
control, it is immediately very serious complicate all logistics in the South.
How realistic is it? 50-50, because it's a war. It all depends on whether or not
they withdraw their absolutely stupid political order to storm Avdiivka. But
while they are shackled near Avdiivka, there are chances.
Of course, the Russians are well aware that if the AFU pass the terrace,
then Perekop is next. Not through the Surovikin line, not through Tokmak, but from here. Actually,
as it was according to Zaluzhny's first plan at the beginning of the summer, that is,
before the Kakhovka dam was blown up. The stakes are very high, and I can't imagine what resources
and reserves they can throw there if they see that the AFU are already advancing towards Perekop.
But the fact that the Ukrainian side has created such a threat to them is a very
clear answer to all those who believe that this year's offensive was a failure. Yes,
it was far from a complete success, but when the partners provided only a third of the requested
material resources with a six-month delay, no project is completed fully if you're given
only 30%. Therefore, given the resources available to the Ukrainian Armed Forces,
and the fact that they reached the left bank of the Dnipro, it finally puts an end to the question
of whether this offensive was unsuccessful. Yes, it achieved less than we all would have liked, but
it achieved much more than I would say any other army in the world could under such conditions.
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