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There is increasing discussion of how the
weather will affect the course of hostilities.
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Not without reason, many believe that
the offensive will be bogged down when
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the rains begin. Although there are those who draw
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attention to the fact that in the area
of Zaporizhzhya direction and the left
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bank the soils are not as viscous as the
black soil in other regions of Ukraine.
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Temporarily occupied areas differ in relief,
landscape and weather conditions. Weather
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conditions differ along the entire length
of the battle line, across the entire combat
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zone. That is to compare the east and the
left bank of the Kherson region, these are
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two completely different climatic zones and each
bridgehead has its own specifics and differences.
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Both the Ukrainian and Russian armies have
experience of fighting waist-deep in mud
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during rains and during severe frosts,
as was the case in Bakhmut and Soledar.
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The Ukrainian defense forces often worked
waist-deep in trenches in mud, and the swampy,
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oily mass did not prevent the Wagner terrorists
from launching one attack after another. Later
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in the winter, the paratroopers fought the
occupiers at Soledar in a fierce frost.
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Heavy frosts with serious ground
freezing will allow to use the
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mechanized component more often and on a
larger scale, especially in black soil.
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On the other hand, we saw in Bakhmut
that weather conditions did not stop the
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Russian command much, they sent their
units to slaughter in huge numbers.
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Despite the weather conditions, the fighting
continued, and the occupiers were advancing,
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throwing their troops into another attack.
Often suicidal, but they kept on moving.
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Any theorist should personally experience what it
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means to move on foot in full gear on
a road made of a thick layer of dust,
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tamped by armored vehicles. After even a
little rain, this road turns into a mud bog.
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In this case, you must move quickly, because
the road is surrounded by a minefield, shells,
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enemy fpv drones and mines fly overhead, the
load on the infantry increases many times.
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Mud narrows down the possibilities
of using equipment, and paved roads,
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which is what it all boils down to, can be
under fire control. And it's more effective,
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since dirt roads mostly fall off that list.
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The number of roads that are targets of fire is
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reduced. This makes it easier for
the enemy's artillery and aviation.
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But dirt does not mean that the artillery
will be silenced. If there will be barrels
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and ammunition, artillery will work and
destroy the occupants in the future,
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counter-battery struggle will continue.
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The occupants can be expected to act
quite paradoxically and irrationally
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in difficult weather conditions
when they start any intensive
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offensive actions. This is not the
best moment for offensive actions,
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but they are carrying them out nonetheless.
Yes, the logic of the Russians in its absence.
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Both sides already have experience
of fighting in difficult weather
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conditions and with mud underfoot.
The fighting will continue despite
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the weather. And if there are resources,
the offensive campaign will also continue.
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Even if it is not to make any major advances, but
to prevent the occupiers from resting or seizing
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the initiative. To weaken their potential and
advance when the conditions are right for it.
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