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Why can't Russia keep control over
the left bank of the Kherson region?
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The fact of forming a bridgehead on the
left bank in such unfavorable conditions,
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the quantitative superiority of the enemy and
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the lack of full-fledged logistics
seemed incredible, but it happened.
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The Russian grouping Dnieper has about
68 thousand personnel, 380 tanks,
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900 Armored fighting vehicles, 500 artillery
barrels and 80 multiple rocket launchers.
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At first glance, this is a rather
large and powerful grouping,
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which should be able to exercise full control
over the left bank, but there is a nuance.
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For all its formidability, the grouping
is critically under-equipped and this
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limits the enemy's ability to use it effectively.
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A group of troops equal to 85 Battalion
tactical groups needs to control almost
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250 kilometers of the left bank,
which is one BTG per 3 kilometers,
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not taking into account the rear area. In
addition, the Russian command is deprived
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of the ability to deploy units for
mobile response to emerging threats.
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Also, the enemy has already lost control
of the road of the first frontier. Now
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the main logistical artery is
highway 2206 and country roads,
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which are under close surveillance
of Ukrainian artillery and drones.
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What we have in the end.
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The Russian forces, despite their numerical
superiority over the Defense Forces of Ukraine on
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the left bank, cannot fully exploit them, as they
actually lack the resources to control the entire
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Kherson region. The Group of Forces is limited in
its actions and effectiveness of the units used.
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There is no need to talk about the formation of a
mobile reserve of operational level - this task is
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unfeasible in the current conditions. The enemy is
progressively losing control of vital logistics.
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So we should prepare for a
goodwill gesture? No, not so fast.
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Today the enemy has one indisputable advantage,
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which they use to slow down the Ukrainians'
actions not only on the left bank,
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but actually along the entire battle
line - it is aviation and Guided bombs.
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The mass use of Guided bombs is the main
braking element and the main salvation of
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the occupants from defeat in a number
of locations, including the left bank.
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The second salvation of the enemy
is still quantitative superiority,
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because the command of the Russian troops
can afford to neglect losses and fill
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certain areas with manpower to create
a numerical barrier. But in conditions
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of artillery superiority from the right
bank this is not a long-lasting solution.
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But on this only it will not be
possible to hold the left bank,
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and the resource and solutions
that could allow it to do so,
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at present, the occupiers do not have and are
unlikely to appear in the foreseeable future.
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In turn, the inevitable processes on the left
bank can be accelerated by the impact on the
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main logistical artery of the enemy - the Crimean
Bridge, which feeds the entire mainland south.
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If such an incident occurs, then the events
- on the left bank and on the Zaporizhzhya
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direction - gradually, but inevitably
will take a completely different turn.
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