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The advance of the Ukrainian defense forces
on the left bank was recently officially
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confirmed by the Ukrainian side. I would
like to remind you that for a long time,
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certain events were taking place
here, obscured by the fog of war.
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What I have not heard in the last few days.
And that "now the breakthrough to Crimea will
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begin". And about the fact that the occupants are
already leaving a number of coastal settlements.
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And about the fact that the false start of the
Russian media about the escape of the occupants
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from the left bank was not a false start, but
something more. And many other versions...
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However, I have to disappoint you -
according to my observations, none of the
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bravura versions about the left bank currently
floating on the net are true, unfortunately.
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Yes, the AFU in several locations cut the road of
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the "first line of defense," significantly
complicating the actions of the enemy,
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limiting their mobility to a depth of 3 to 5 km
of territories controlled by the Russian troops.
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The Russian troops are not abandoning the
bridgehead, and on the contrary, they have formed
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tactical groups, about two brigades in number,
which should counteract the advance of the AFU.
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In addition, the main enemy forces of 2 divisions
are waiting for the Ukrainian side to act.
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At this stage, I am extremely skeptical
of the cries of "forward to Crimea!" and
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other statements. Let me remind you that
in order to be at the stage at which the
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Ukrainian armed forces are now on the left
bank, the hardest work has been done for
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almost a year. And there are no less difficult
tasks ahead under no less difficult conditions.
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And the forces on the left bank are extremely
small, especially the mechanized component. It
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would be good to strengthen and saturate
the bridgehead, not to go to the Crimea.
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Therefore, I ask you to pay attention
not so much to ephemeral goals,
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but more down-to-earth ones. The right
bank of the Kherson region is no longer
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being shelled from Russian mortars. Yes,
artillery continues to terrorize, but still,
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a security buffer is gradually being created,
which is pushing the enemy further and further
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away from the positions that allowed them
to terrorize the cities on the right bank.
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We need to focus at least on this stage,
without premature fantasies. All in good time.
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Apparently, the Russian commanders have realized
that the exsanguination of the "Center" group of
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troops by redeploying the most combat-ready
brigades to Avdiivka may end badly for them,
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and the undersupplied 25th All-Russian Army has
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not been able to solve the issue
of the lack of quality resources.
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It seems that the Russian staff geniuses
have decided to reinforce the group of
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troops "Center" at the expense, expectedly, of
the group of troops "West". And will reinforce
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the direction of Lyman-Kupiansk axis by the
20th Combined Arms Army, thus weakening it.
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This is to say that the zone of responsibility of
the "West" group, which includes the offensive on
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Kupiansk, will begin to subside. And this is
provided that the resource that the enemy has
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concentrated near Avdiivka will be enough
for further assaults. And if they don't?
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Well, in case of its absence they will
continue to pull resources from the Luhansk
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bridgehead, which in turn will weaken their
capabilities along the Lyman-Kupiansk axis.
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To simplify, in order to strengthen one
direction, they have to weaken the other.
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As for the reserves and rear of the Russian
side, only guesses remain.... Otherwise,
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why such frantic transfers of forces with
weakening of other important directions?
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