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The active actions of the AFU on the left
bank of the Dnipro River have divided those
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observing the war in Ukraine into both those
who are seriously considering the possibility
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of a "breakthrough to Crimea" along this direction
and skeptics.
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But so far, real events indicate that the
Russian command in the Crimean-Taurian direction
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has received an obviously significant "headache".
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That is a fact.
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As far as I understand, everything is going
"according to plan" there, however, clearly
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not Russian.
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At least, 2 tactical bridgeheads of the AFU
in the area of the automobile and railroad
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Antonivka bridges have already merged into
1, while becoming a bit bigger.
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And, to all appearances, the AFU are holding
it quite "tightly".
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How does the new commander of the Dniepr group
react to all these events?
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Of course, in the style typical of the Russians:
by transferring additional forces and means
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to the "dangerous area", as well as conducting
numerous series of attacks in non-stop mode.
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And the introduction of military formations,
units and subdivisions into the battle is
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taking place, as usual, as they are being
concentrated and deployed.
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In particular, the Russian command wants to
return to the left bank of the Dnipro River
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the units of the 7th Airborne Assault Brigade,
which were only recently transferred to the
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Tokmak direction, where they were supposed
to strike at the flanks of the advancing AFU
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group.
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But with "flank counterattacks" in the Tokmak
direction the occupants still did not get
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anything good, and Ukrainian marines arranged
a fatal meeting for the Russian motorized
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riflemen.
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The enemy will soon be forced to "deal with
the problem of Ukrainian bridgeheads" on the
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Dnipro.
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After all, if this issue is left to the "winding
up", the AFU will be able to get a stretch
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of coast on the right bank of the river, where
the bulk of Russian artillery will not reach.
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Of course, it will still need to be securely
covered from the air, but there are reasonable
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hopes on this matter.
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It is also interesting to see what assessment
the enemy gives to the actions of the AFU.
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Several Russian resources that are more or
less adequate, if one can even say so, quite
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unanimously came to the conclusion that the
AFU planned, organized and worked out their
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actions across the Dnipro River in advance.
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- The Russians were unpleasantly struck by
the speed and efficiency of the AFU units,
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especially in the area of increasing their
efforts.
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- They also concluded that the Ukrainian command
had found a way, unknown to them yet, to provide
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replenishment of its forward units and to
organize their logistical support in sufficient
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quantities and with appropriate efficiency.
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Otherwise, the AFU's forward units would not
have been able to conduct intensive combat
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operations on bridgeheads for a long period
of time, and they are also managing to expand
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them.
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- It is also obvious that the width along
the front and the main areas and directions
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of the active actions of the AFU "across the
Dnipro" were not chosen at all by chance.
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They are clearly tied to the nature of the
terrain, the composition and operational structure
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of the Russian troops, even the level of water,
the most successful and convenient places
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for landing and hidden progress in the floodplain
are taken into account.
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Given the onset of winter, when logistics
will directly depend on weather conditions,
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will the establishment of a bridgehead on
the left bank of the river lead to a full-fledged
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operation of operational level ? I would like
to believe so, but a lot depends on the partners,
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and more precisely on military assistance.
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The main thing is that they should not forget
that human resources are not infinite.
5663
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