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This show is fictitious.
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There is not actually
an asteroid
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headed to New York City today,
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but this is based on
simulations of such an event.
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00:00:15,567 --> 00:00:18,600
We run simulations of
fictional asteroid strike
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00:00:18,667 --> 00:00:21,600
to prepare for
the worst-case scenario.
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[Mike Rowe]
November 4, 2029.
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We face a countdown
to catastrophe.
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A giant asteroid hurtles
towards Earth.
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It's heading straight for
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the eastern seaboard of
the United States.
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00:00:43,600 --> 00:00:47,967
The space rock could wipe out
an entire city
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00:00:47,967 --> 00:00:50,266
and cause
widespread devastation.
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00:00:53,500 --> 00:00:57,066
Can Earth survive?
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[electricity crackles]
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[electricity crackles]
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[explosion]
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New York City,
November 4, 2029.
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The deserted metropolis waited
for the asteroid to strike.
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A giant space rock entered
the atmosphere,
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heading straight for the eastern
seaboard of the USA.
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00:01:30,000 --> 00:01:31,166
heading straight for the eastern
seaboard of the USA.
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[Plesko] As it comes through
the atmosphere,
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we would see something as
bright as the sun getting
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brighter and brighter
and brighter.
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00:01:41,166 --> 00:01:44,367
[Durda] At speeds of maybe
20 kilometers per second or so.
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That's something like
18 times faster than
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00:01:46,867 --> 00:01:50,467
the speed of a bullet
coming out of a rifle.
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00:01:50,567 --> 00:01:53,100
This asteroid was
headed towards
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00:01:53,166 --> 00:01:56,266
the most populous city
in America,
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and when it impacts,
it would deliver
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more energy than
1,000 Hiroshima nuclear bombs.
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00:02:00,000 --> 00:02:03,900
more energy than
1,000 Hiroshima nuclear bombs.
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00:02:09,967 --> 00:02:11,700
[ explosion ]
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00:02:14,567 --> 00:02:17,166
It would level some of the most
expensive real estate
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00:02:17,166 --> 00:02:19,000
in the world in seconds.
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00:02:27,667 --> 00:02:30,000
There would be a crater where
Central Park used to be.
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00:02:30,000 --> 00:02:30,800
There would be a crater where
Central Park used to be.
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00:02:33,667 --> 00:02:36,800
I actually don't even like
thinking about this,
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00:02:36,867 --> 00:02:37,800
[ stammering ]
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00:02:37,867 --> 00:02:41,266
of how horrible it
would be.
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00:02:41,367 --> 00:02:44,000
[Plait] This is beyond the
worst disaster
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00:02:44,100 --> 00:02:45,700
the world has --
would have ever faced.
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00:02:45,767 --> 00:02:47,867
There's nothing in our history
that would have
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00:02:47,967 --> 00:02:52,467
done this much damage so
quickly and so devastatingly.
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00:03:01,667 --> 00:03:03,467
[Rowe]
The story of the asteroid
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00:03:03,467 --> 00:03:05,767
and the Earth's fight back
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started seven years ago,
here in Arizona.
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00:03:14,467 --> 00:03:16,700
September 2022,
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00:03:19,000 --> 00:03:21,900
the Catalina Sky Survey.
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00:03:22,000 --> 00:03:24,700
Guardian of heavens
Greg Leonard drives
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00:03:24,767 --> 00:03:28,100
to Mount Lemmon Observatory
near Tucson.
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00:03:28,166 --> 00:03:30,000
He's on the hunt
for asteroids and comets.
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00:03:30,000 --> 00:03:31,166
He's on the hunt
for asteroids and comets.
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00:03:32,767 --> 00:03:36,700
[Leonard] We are the watchers of
the skies for the planet.
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We literally represent
the first line of defense
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00:03:41,066 --> 00:03:44,166
against potentially
incoming asteroids,
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00:03:44,266 --> 00:03:48,100
and I want to emphasize
the words planetary defense.
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00:03:48,166 --> 00:03:51,000
This is not in the benefit
for one nation.
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00:03:51,066 --> 00:03:53,867
This is for the entire planet.
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00:03:53,967 --> 00:03:56,367
[Rowe] Greg takes
a series of images
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00:03:56,467 --> 00:03:59,867
over a 20-minute period.
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00:03:59,967 --> 00:04:00,000
Stars don't move
in the photos,
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00:04:00,000 --> 00:04:02,567
Stars don't move
in the photos,
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00:04:03,567 --> 00:04:06,066
but asteroids and comets do.
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00:04:08,166 --> 00:04:10,500
A-ha.
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00:04:10,567 --> 00:04:12,667
We can see
four points of light
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00:04:12,667 --> 00:04:16,367
tracking across the background
of the stationary stars.
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00:04:16,367 --> 00:04:21,667
This one is moving very
quickly across the sky.
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00:04:21,667 --> 00:04:22,700
So this tells me
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00:04:22,767 --> 00:04:26,767
this is a real
near-Earth asteroid candidate.
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[Rowe] It's one of over 27,000
near-Earth asteroids,
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00:04:30,000 --> 00:04:33,166
[Rowe] It's one of over 27,000
near-Earth asteroids,
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00:04:33,166 --> 00:04:37,000
or NEAs for short,
discovered by the early 2020s.
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00:04:40,767 --> 00:04:44,100
The huge gravity of Jupiter
can rip space rocks
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00:04:44,166 --> 00:04:47,066
from their home
in the asteroid belt.
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00:04:48,767 --> 00:04:51,767
Some race outwards,
away from the sun.
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00:04:53,600 --> 00:04:58,367
NEAs head inwards,
occasionally towards Earth.
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00:05:00,100 --> 00:05:03,800
We didn't know it
back in September of 2022,
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00:05:03,867 --> 00:05:06,367
but these were
our first images
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00:05:06,367 --> 00:05:08,867
of a deadly incoming asteroid.
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[Leonard] It's relatively close
to Earth's neighborhood.
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We don't know exactly
how far it is yet,
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00:05:16,767 --> 00:05:20,266
but it's close enough where
its motion across the sky
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appears rapid.
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[Rowe] The discovery
of an NEA set a series
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of planet protection protocols
in motion.
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Step one, enlist
a global team of experts
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to investigate
the asteroid's orbit.
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[Plesko] We have
some of the brightest minds,
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some of the best telescopes,
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00:05:44,667 --> 00:05:46,166
some of
the biggest supercomputers
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working to protect Earth,
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collaborating
across language barriers,
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00:05:50,166 --> 00:05:53,166
across international
borders to protect humanity.
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[Rowe] This international
planetary defense team
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was tasked with discovering
if the distant object
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00:06:00,000 --> 00:06:01,667
was tasked with discovering
if the distant object
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00:06:01,767 --> 00:06:04,367
would become
a serious threat to Earth.
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00:06:07,400 --> 00:06:08,667
Their first job --
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00:06:08,667 --> 00:06:13,000
determine if the NEA's orbit
would intersect with our own.
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[Plait] Orbits are
a little like roads, right?
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You've got a path
that something follows,
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and they can intersect,
you can have a crossroads.
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00:06:21,266 --> 00:06:23,567
Now, typically, if only one
object is there,
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that's not a big deal,
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00:06:24,867 --> 00:06:26,667
but if you have two objects
approaching that intersection
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00:06:26,767 --> 00:06:28,767
at the same time,
they could collide,
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00:06:28,867 --> 00:06:30,000
and that's the danger
from asteroids.
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and that's the danger
from asteroids.
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[Rowe]
The team of scientists
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track the asteroid
for four months.
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[Chodas] Over time,
you can build up observations.
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00:06:43,367 --> 00:06:48,000
You can gradually narrow down
the possible number of orbits,
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00:06:48,066 --> 00:06:53,266
then determine whether there's
any chance of a future impact,
116
00:06:53,266 --> 00:06:55,667
but if the asteroid
is orbiting the sun,
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the Earth is orbiting the sun,
and there's this dance going on.
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Sometimes the asteroid
is near the Earth,
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Sometimes the asteroid
is near the Earth,
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00:07:01,367 --> 00:07:03,367
and we can observe it,
it's bright.
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00:07:03,367 --> 00:07:05,266
Other times
the asteroid is
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on the other side of the sun.
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00:07:06,467 --> 00:07:07,667
We can't observe it at all.
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[Rowe]
We were lucky.
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00:07:11,000 --> 00:07:14,767
The asteroid was visible
throughout the fall of 2022.
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However, our observations of
the space rock's orbit
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showed a very real possibility
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that it would slam into Earth
in just seven years.
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[ whooshing ]
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00:07:32,266 --> 00:07:34,467
Astronomers gave
the incoming asteroid
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a suitably appropriate name,
Apep.
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Apep was
the Egyptian god of chaos,
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so that's a fairly good name
for an asteroid
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that could
hit the Earth
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00:07:47,467 --> 00:07:49,767
because that's exactly what
would happen.
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You'd have chaos,
destruction, and death.
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[Rowe] A catalog of devastation
to be
unleashed on Earth.
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00:08:06,266 --> 00:08:09,200
But just how bad would
the impact be?
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[Rowe] January 2023.
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00:08:29,567 --> 00:08:32,867
Asteroid Apep was on
a collision course with Earth.
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Step two in our
planetary defense --
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00:08:37,567 --> 00:08:41,500
know your enemy and build up
a picture of the asteroid.
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Apep was 1,800 feet wide,
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Apep was 1,800 feet wide,
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five times the length of
a football field.
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Its huge size bumps it up into
a new category of asteroids.
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Apep was what we refer to as
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a PHA, a potentially
hazardous asteroid.
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We're talking about something
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that is a third of a mile
across.
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This is enormous.
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An 1,800-foot-wide asteroid is
about 112 million metric tons.
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An 1,800-foot-wide asteroid is
about 112 million metric tons.
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[Rowe]
That's over 300 times the weight
of the Empire State Building.
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Computer simulations
of the impact
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of an asteroid that massive
hitting a city
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revealed extraordinary levels
of destruction.
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An 1,800-foot-diameter asteroid,
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that
would create a crater
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that's 3 or 4 miles across,
1,600 feet deep.
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It would have a radiation
blast wave that
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It would have a radiation
blast wave that
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would set things on fire
for about 20 miles,
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but no sooner would things be
lit on fire,
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there would be
a 500-mile-an-hour wind
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radiating out,
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leveling buildings,
knocking down trees,
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destroying highways.
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100 miles away, you'd still feel
a magnitude seven earthquake.
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It's not easy to say what is
going to kill you first.
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It's probably going to be
simply the flash of energy.
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It's probably going to be
simply the flash of energy.
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There's so much heat from this
thing that you can be vaporized.
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If you somehow survived that,
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then there's going to be
the blast wave that will
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pulverize anything in its path.
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[Rowe] To build
an accurate simulation,
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the scientists used
more than size and mass.
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They also studied
its composition
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00:10:35,000 --> 00:10:36,500
and the speed of its orbit.
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[Fast] You need to know what
an asteroid is made of,
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the speed of that asteroid,
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how large it is in order
to understand,
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00:10:43,125 --> 00:10:45,600
how large it is in order
to understand,
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will it make it through
Earth's atmosphere,
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and what might the impact
effects be?
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00:10:52,767 --> 00:10:57,667
[Rowe] Asteroids vary in
composition and structure.
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Some are loose collections
of small rocks,
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others rocky and compact.
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The most dangerous
are metallic.
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00:11:09,867 --> 00:11:12,500
A metal asteroid can be five
times as dense
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as some of
the lower density asteroids,
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00:11:13,125 --> 00:11:14,667
as some of
the lower density asteroids,
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and so for the same speeds
on the same orbits
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00:11:17,567 --> 00:11:20,066
they pack way more punch
when it comes to an impact.
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00:11:24,700 --> 00:11:25,767
[Thaller] If you want
to see exactly
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what a metallic asteroid
can do,
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00:11:28,367 --> 00:11:31,200
go no farther than
Barringer Crater in Arizona.
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00:11:31,266 --> 00:11:34,066
Now that crater is about
a mile across,
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00:11:34,066 --> 00:11:38,667
and the meteor that made it was
only about 150 feet across.
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00:11:38,667 --> 00:11:42,400
[Rowe] Arizona,
50,000 years ago.
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00:11:42,467 --> 00:11:43,125
The last major asteroid strike
on present day North America,
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00:11:43,125 --> 00:11:46,667
The last major asteroid strike
on present day North America,
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00:11:48,567 --> 00:11:50,867
a tiny metallic space rock
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00:11:50,867 --> 00:11:54,900
hits the ground
at 25,000 miles an hour,
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00:11:55,000 --> 00:12:00,367
releasing energy equivalent to
2.5 million tons of TNT.
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00:12:02,500 --> 00:12:06,867
Scale that up to the size of
1,800-foot Apep,
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00:12:06,967 --> 00:12:10,467
and it would create a blast
wave the size of Delaware.
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00:12:11,467 --> 00:12:13,125
If Apep were a metal
asteroid, it would tear through
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00:12:13,125 --> 00:12:14,300
If Apep were a metal
asteroid, it would tear through
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00:12:14,367 --> 00:12:16,667
the atmosphere
like a cosmic bullet.
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00:12:16,667 --> 00:12:19,200
In a modern city,
without warning,
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00:12:19,266 --> 00:12:21,000
it could kill a lot of people.
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00:12:23,000 --> 00:12:25,266
But although
they're very dangerous,
215
00:12:25,367 --> 00:12:30,467
they're also very rare.
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00:12:30,567 --> 00:12:34,567
[Rowe] More common are rubble
piles,
217
00:12:34,567 --> 00:12:39,066
loose collections of small
rocks held together by gravity.
218
00:12:46,667 --> 00:12:49,000
Rubble pile is kind of
the perfect name for them,
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00:12:49,100 --> 00:12:51,200
but you can think of them as
like a literally
220
00:12:51,266 --> 00:12:54,767
a pile of stuff out of a dump
truck in your driveway,
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00:12:54,867 --> 00:12:57,266
but if you take that and you
put that in space,
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00:12:57,367 --> 00:12:59,367
they don't have much gravity
but they have enough to stay
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00:12:59,367 --> 00:13:00,667
bound to each other,
224
00:13:00,667 --> 00:13:03,100
and that's your rubble
pile asteroid.
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00:13:03,166 --> 00:13:07,567
They are just barely holding
on to themselves.
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00:13:07,667 --> 00:13:11,166
If you were to come and just
apply sufficient gravity,
227
00:13:11,266 --> 00:13:13,125
you could rip it apart.
228
00:13:13,125 --> 00:13:14,567
you could rip it apart.
229
00:13:18,367 --> 00:13:21,166
[Rowe] Pressure and heat from
entering our atmosphere
230
00:13:21,266 --> 00:13:24,967
can also tear a rubble
pile asteroid to pieces,
231
00:13:28,867 --> 00:13:31,867
but that can be just
as dangerous to a city below.
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00:13:34,700 --> 00:13:36,166
The breakup of an asteroid in
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00:13:36,166 --> 00:13:38,667
the upper atmosphere is --
is pretty devastating.
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00:13:38,767 --> 00:13:41,400
It's like a nuclear weapon
going off in the atmosphere,
235
00:13:41,467 --> 00:13:43,125
flattening buildings
and breaking windows.
236
00:13:43,125 --> 00:13:44,000
flattening buildings
and breaking windows.
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00:13:44,100 --> 00:13:45,567
There are going
to be mass casualties
238
00:13:45,667 --> 00:13:46,800
from an event like that
239
00:13:46,867 --> 00:13:49,266
due to just the injuries
from flying glass and debris.
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00:13:54,567 --> 00:13:59,266
[Rowe] To discover what type of
asteroid Apep belonged to,
241
00:13:59,367 --> 00:14:01,266
the planetary protection team
242
00:14:01,367 --> 00:14:04,367
train their telescopes
onto the space rock.
243
00:14:07,567 --> 00:14:10,367
Analysis revealed that Apep
was a rocky,
244
00:14:10,367 --> 00:14:13,125
carbonaceous chondrite asteroid,
or C-type for short.
245
00:14:13,125 --> 00:14:14,567
carbonaceous chondrite asteroid,
or C-type for short.
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00:14:17,066 --> 00:14:19,166
C-type asteroids like Apep
247
00:14:19,166 --> 00:14:21,700
are less dense
than metal asteroids,
248
00:14:21,767 --> 00:14:24,767
but more solid than
rubble piles.
249
00:14:24,867 --> 00:14:27,100
If a big enough
C-type asteroid
250
00:14:27,166 --> 00:14:29,266
penetrates the Earth's
atmosphere,
251
00:14:29,266 --> 00:14:32,300
it has the chance to make it
all the way down to the surface.
252
00:14:32,367 --> 00:14:35,166
It doesn't necessarily burn up
in the atmosphere.
253
00:14:43,000 --> 00:14:43,125
[Rowe] Apep's size, mass, and
composition told us
254
00:14:43,125 --> 00:14:46,467
[Rowe] Apep's size, mass, and
composition told us
255
00:14:46,467 --> 00:14:50,100
it would punch through our
atmosphere and hit the surface.
256
00:14:54,100 --> 00:14:57,567
The final piece of information
needed to accurately predict
257
00:14:57,667 --> 00:15:00,266
the true amount of damage
from the impact
258
00:15:00,367 --> 00:15:04,467
was Apep's kinetic energy,
the amount of energy
259
00:15:04,567 --> 00:15:06,867
the asteroid would punch
into the ground.
260
00:15:09,166 --> 00:15:13,000
The kinetic energy of an object
depends on the mass,
261
00:15:13,066 --> 00:15:13,125
and it depends even
more strongly on the speed.
262
00:15:13,125 --> 00:15:16,567
and it depends even
more strongly on the speed.
263
00:15:16,567 --> 00:15:19,567
More mass creates more
kinetic energy,
264
00:15:19,667 --> 00:15:23,867
but more velocity will
increase the kinetic energy by
265
00:15:23,967 --> 00:15:25,467
a squared factor.
266
00:15:25,567 --> 00:15:28,800
For example, if something has
twice the velocity,
267
00:15:28,867 --> 00:15:32,166
it will have four times
the same energy.
268
00:15:32,266 --> 00:15:36,200
[Rowe] Scientists calculated how
much energy Apep,
269
00:15:36,266 --> 00:15:39,667
weighing in at 123 million tons
270
00:15:39,667 --> 00:15:42,200
and traveling at 40,000
miles an hour,
271
00:15:42,266 --> 00:15:43,125
would transfer into the Earth.
272
00:15:43,125 --> 00:15:45,567
would transfer into the Earth.
273
00:15:45,567 --> 00:15:47,600
So what kind of energies
were involved here?
274
00:15:47,667 --> 00:15:50,800
Uh, you know,
1,800-foot diameter asteroid.
275
00:15:50,867 --> 00:15:53,000
It's 112 million tons,
276
00:15:53,066 --> 00:15:55,867
and it's traveling
at 40,000 miles per hour.
277
00:15:55,967 --> 00:15:57,100
That's something
on the order of
278
00:15:57,166 --> 00:15:59,667
10 to the 19th
joules of energy,
279
00:15:59,667 --> 00:16:02,266
a one followed by 19 zeros.
280
00:16:10,266 --> 00:16:13,125
1.8 times 10 to the 19 joules
is equivalent to 5,000 megatons.
281
00:16:13,125 --> 00:16:16,300
1.8 times 10 to the 19 joules
is equivalent to 5,000 megatons.
282
00:16:16,367 --> 00:16:18,000
Take a one megaton nuke,
283
00:16:18,066 --> 00:16:23,367
a substantial nuclear weapon,
and then blow up 5,000 of them.
284
00:16:23,367 --> 00:16:27,200
That is roughly the same
amount as all the nuclear
285
00:16:27,266 --> 00:16:28,367
weapons on Earth,
286
00:16:28,467 --> 00:16:29,867
detonating all at once.
287
00:16:35,166 --> 00:16:38,000
[Rowe] A strike this large would
affect the whole planet.
288
00:16:40,700 --> 00:16:43,000
[Sutter] This would have
global impacts.
289
00:16:43,100 --> 00:16:43,125
We would have to deal with
the fallout,
290
00:16:43,125 --> 00:16:44,467
We would have to deal with
the fallout,
291
00:16:44,567 --> 00:16:47,300
the literal fallout
from this event for --
292
00:16:47,367 --> 00:16:49,166
for potentially
1,000 years.
293
00:16:53,200 --> 00:16:55,567
[Rowe] Spring, 2023.
294
00:16:55,667 --> 00:16:58,166
We had two choices --
295
00:16:58,166 --> 00:17:02,200
do nothing and face
a planet-changing catastrophe,
296
00:17:02,266 --> 00:17:04,700
or fight back.
297
00:17:04,767 --> 00:17:07,166
We chose to take on Apep.
298
00:17:08,667 --> 00:17:11,567
It was the first time
in human history
299
00:17:11,567 --> 00:17:13,125
that we might actually be able
to prevent a natural disaster
300
00:17:13,125 --> 00:17:15,100
that we might actually be able
to prevent a natural disaster
301
00:17:15,166 --> 00:17:16,667
from happening.
302
00:17:16,767 --> 00:17:20,166
We could plan and launch
a response mission,
303
00:17:20,166 --> 00:17:21,667
so we don't have
to get out of the way.
304
00:17:21,767 --> 00:17:23,900
Make it get
out of the way instead.
305
00:17:26,867 --> 00:17:29,700
[Rowe] The mission's objective
was simple --
306
00:17:29,767 --> 00:17:33,467
stop the asteroid,
and save the world.
307
00:17:35,767 --> 00:17:38,567
We can't superglue
an earthquake fault shut.
308
00:17:38,567 --> 00:17:41,467
We can't cork volcanoes,
309
00:17:41,567 --> 00:17:43,125
but planning
for an asteroid impact
310
00:17:43,125 --> 00:17:44,266
but planning
for an asteroid impact
311
00:17:44,367 --> 00:17:46,100
is something
we really could do.
312
00:17:55,367 --> 00:17:57,600
[Rowe] June 2023.
313
00:17:59,600 --> 00:18:04,667
A large asteroid
was headed towards Earth.
314
00:18:04,767 --> 00:18:09,100
It was predicted to strike on
November 4, 2029.
315
00:18:16,467 --> 00:18:17,567
To protect our planet,
316
00:18:17,600 --> 00:18:18,500
A team of scientists plan to
deflect the asteroid.
317
00:18:18,500 --> 00:18:25,367
A team of scientists plan to
deflect the asteroid.
318
00:18:25,467 --> 00:18:27,667
[Sutter]
An 1,800-foot wide asteroid
319
00:18:27,767 --> 00:18:29,467
was headed towards the Earth.
320
00:18:29,567 --> 00:18:34,567
We needed it to go in
literally any other direction.
321
00:18:34,667 --> 00:18:37,667
[Rowe] So how could we
push Apep off course?
322
00:18:39,166 --> 00:18:44,867
Scientists found a clue in
the asteroid belt.
323
00:18:47,900 --> 00:18:48,500
Sometimes the lumps
of space debris collide
324
00:18:48,500 --> 00:18:51,400
Sometimes the lumps
of space debris collide
325
00:18:51,467 --> 00:18:54,567
and change their trajectory.
326
00:18:54,567 --> 00:18:59,700
Maybe we could replicate this
and deflect Apep.
327
00:18:59,767 --> 00:19:02,200
We could try to deflect the
asteroid and change its orbit
328
00:19:02,266 --> 00:19:04,600
so that it actually
misses the Earth.
329
00:19:04,667 --> 00:19:06,400
[Sutter]
If you do it early enough,
330
00:19:06,467 --> 00:19:10,400
it may not be much, less than
half a millimeter per second,
331
00:19:10,467 --> 00:19:12,967
but that is enough.
332
00:19:12,967 --> 00:19:17,800
These asteroids travel for
millions of miles, and so over
333
00:19:17,867 --> 00:19:18,500
the course of days, weeks,
334
00:19:18,500 --> 00:19:19,667
the course of days, weeks,
335
00:19:19,667 --> 00:19:24,000
months, and years, it will have
a radically different orbit.
336
00:19:25,066 --> 00:19:26,567
[Rowe] Sounds simple.
337
00:19:26,667 --> 00:19:30,000
Send up a rocket with
a robotic space probe,
338
00:19:30,066 --> 00:19:34,567
travel millions of miles,
and knock Apep away from Earth.
339
00:19:35,867 --> 00:19:36,767
Piece of cake.
340
00:19:38,867 --> 00:19:39,934
In the movies,
341
00:19:40,000 --> 00:19:42,166
when there's a threatening
asteroid that's found,
342
00:19:42,266 --> 00:19:45,967
there's always a rocket on
the pad ready to go after that,
343
00:19:45,967 --> 00:19:48,500
and it's not the case
in real life.
344
00:19:48,500 --> 00:19:48,767
and it's not the case
in real life.
345
00:19:48,867 --> 00:19:51,166
It takes years
to design the mission,
346
00:19:51,166 --> 00:19:53,400
to build the satellite,
to launch it,
347
00:19:53,467 --> 00:19:54,867
and then it has to get there,
348
00:19:54,867 --> 00:19:57,867
and that might be millions
of miles away from Earth.
349
00:19:59,000 --> 00:20:01,367
[Rowe] Fortunately,
Earth had a head start.
350
00:20:02,700 --> 00:20:05,000
We detected Apep early,
351
00:20:07,367 --> 00:20:12,066
and we'd already built
an asteroid deflector called
352
00:20:12,066 --> 00:20:15,266
the Double Asteroid
Redirection Test,
353
00:20:15,266 --> 00:20:17,500
or DART for short.
354
00:20:19,500 --> 00:20:24,100
In 2021 we sent DART
6.8 million miles
355
00:20:24,166 --> 00:20:27,700
to rendezvous with
an asteroid called Didymos.
356
00:20:28,867 --> 00:20:31,500
Didymos posed
no threat to Earth,
357
00:20:31,567 --> 00:20:33,967
but allowed us
to test the technology.
358
00:20:35,467 --> 00:20:36,867
[Thaller]
The asteroid called Didymos
359
00:20:36,967 --> 00:20:40,200
has a small moon asteroid
going around it.
360
00:20:40,266 --> 00:20:41,300
The point of the DART mission
361
00:20:41,367 --> 00:20:44,200
was to send an impactor
into this little moon
362
00:20:44,266 --> 00:20:47,100
and see how much we nudge
it off the orbit that it's in.
363
00:20:48,667 --> 00:20:50,967
[Rowe] Lessons learned
from DART
364
00:20:50,967 --> 00:20:53,200
would inspire a new mission.
365
00:20:56,066 --> 00:20:58,767
November 2025.
366
00:20:58,767 --> 00:21:01,467
We launched
the DAAFE mission --
367
00:21:01,467 --> 00:21:06,066
deflect Apep
away from Earth.
368
00:21:06,066 --> 00:21:09,367
This wasn't a test run to
a safe asteroid.
369
00:21:09,467 --> 00:21:12,967
This was the real deal,
a mission to save our planet.
370
00:21:12,967 --> 00:21:17,100
It was an enormous
technical challenge,
371
00:21:17,166 --> 00:21:18,500
and we had no idea
if it would work.
372
00:21:18,500 --> 00:21:20,000
and we had no idea
if it would work.
373
00:21:21,200 --> 00:21:25,000
When you think about
a spacecraft going from Earth
374
00:21:25,066 --> 00:21:28,100
millions of miles away
to hit an asteroid
375
00:21:28,166 --> 00:21:29,767
at an exact point
in time,
376
00:21:29,767 --> 00:21:30,967
at an exact point in space.
377
00:21:30,967 --> 00:21:33,367
It's really
the ultimate bullseye.
378
00:21:33,367 --> 00:21:37,100
It's like trying to hit one
bullet with another bullet
379
00:21:37,166 --> 00:21:39,367
launched from the other
side of a continent.
380
00:21:41,667 --> 00:21:43,667
[Rowe] November 2028.
381
00:21:44,767 --> 00:21:48,500
After three years in space,
DAAFE arrived at Apep.
382
00:21:48,500 --> 00:21:50,000
After three years in space,
DAAFE arrived at Apep.
383
00:21:52,467 --> 00:21:54,367
This was our last chance.
384
00:21:54,367 --> 00:21:56,000
This was our only chance.
385
00:21:59,266 --> 00:22:00,266
[Rowe] The kinetic impactor
386
00:22:00,266 --> 00:22:04,166
smashed into Apep
at 14,000 miles an hour.
387
00:22:10,800 --> 00:22:14,200
On Earth, telescopes and radar
tracked the collision.
388
00:22:15,800 --> 00:22:16,967
Did it work?
389
00:22:16,967 --> 00:22:18,500
Did we push the asteroid
off course?
390
00:22:18,500 --> 00:22:20,467
Did we push the asteroid
off course?
391
00:22:20,567 --> 00:22:22,467
At first glance, the
mission worked.
392
00:22:22,567 --> 00:22:25,767
We deflected Apep away
from us.
393
00:22:28,000 --> 00:22:29,667
[Rowe] It looked like the
mission worked.
394
00:22:32,800 --> 00:22:34,667
[Plait] As an astronomer,
and, you know,
395
00:22:34,667 --> 00:22:36,867
a human who has to live
on this planet,
396
00:22:36,967 --> 00:22:38,300
I was very happy, right?
397
00:22:38,367 --> 00:22:41,000
We've just literally
saved the world.
398
00:22:41,066 --> 00:22:43,667
[Rowe] But the happiness
was short-lived.
399
00:22:44,767 --> 00:22:46,000
There was a problem.
400
00:22:46,100 --> 00:22:48,500
The collision had pushed Apep
away from Earth,
401
00:22:48,500 --> 00:22:49,767
The collision had pushed Apep
away from Earth,
402
00:22:53,266 --> 00:22:57,667
but it also sheared off
a 300-foot chunk of rock.
403
00:22:59,367 --> 00:23:03,400
This smaller asteroid,
called Apep 2.0,
404
00:23:03,467 --> 00:23:05,166
could still be
a significant threat.
405
00:23:08,266 --> 00:23:13,100
A 300-foot chunk of rock
is still very, very large.
406
00:23:13,166 --> 00:23:14,667
300 feet wide.
407
00:23:14,767 --> 00:23:17,000
That's almost
a football field.
408
00:23:18,100 --> 00:23:18,500
[Plesko] So the important things
we needed to know --
409
00:23:18,500 --> 00:23:19,967
[Plesko] So the important things
we needed to know --
410
00:23:19,967 --> 00:23:21,567
was it going to hit us?
411
00:23:22,600 --> 00:23:24,800
And if so, where is it going
to hit us?
412
00:23:26,900 --> 00:23:31,066
[Rowe] March 2029,
we got our answer.
413
00:23:31,066 --> 00:23:33,266
Its point of impact --
414
00:23:33,367 --> 00:23:36,000
The east coast
of the United States,
415
00:23:37,600 --> 00:23:40,767
with New York City
in the firing line.
416
00:23:43,500 --> 00:23:46,066
SUTTER: A smaller chunk headed
for New York City.
417
00:23:47,200 --> 00:23:48,500
This was
the worst-case scenario.
418
00:23:48,500 --> 00:23:50,066
This was
the worst-case scenario.
419
00:23:59,000 --> 00:24:00,166
I want to emphasize,
420
00:24:00,166 --> 00:24:02,467
there's no asteroid
headed toward New York tonight.
421
00:24:02,467 --> 00:24:05,367
This is just
a discussion about
422
00:24:05,467 --> 00:24:07,367
what this process would
be like.
423
00:24:15,567 --> 00:24:16,867
[Rowe] In 2028,
424
00:24:16,867 --> 00:24:19,900
we tried to deflect
Apep away from Earth.
425
00:24:22,166 --> 00:24:23,999
The mission wasn't
a complete success.
426
00:24:23,999 --> 00:24:26,767
The mission wasn't
a complete success.
427
00:24:26,867 --> 00:24:28,767
Yes, we managed to
actually divert
428
00:24:28,767 --> 00:24:31,500
the large asteroid away from
hitting the Earth,
429
00:24:31,567 --> 00:24:34,367
but in doing so, we broke off
a clump big enough
430
00:24:34,467 --> 00:24:37,300
to be very dangerous heading
toward the eastern seaboard.
431
00:24:39,667 --> 00:24:44,300
[Rowe] June 2029,
five months to impact.
432
00:24:46,367 --> 00:24:48,867
The future looked bleak for
New York,
433
00:24:48,967 --> 00:24:50,767
but it wasn't the time
to give up.
434
00:24:52,000 --> 00:24:53,667
They reassessed an idea
435
00:24:53,667 --> 00:24:53,999
first suggested to destroy
the original 1,800-foot Apep,
436
00:24:53,999 --> 00:25:00,066
first suggested to destroy
the original 1,800-foot Apep,
437
00:25:00,066 --> 00:25:01,467
a nuclear strike.
438
00:25:03,800 --> 00:25:05,266
It worked in Armageddon.
439
00:25:05,266 --> 00:25:07,266
Maybe it would work in
real life.
440
00:25:08,600 --> 00:25:12,266
However, studies revealed
that nuking an asteroid
441
00:25:12,367 --> 00:25:16,467
wasn't as simple as it looks
in a Hollywood movie.
442
00:25:16,467 --> 00:25:17,467
Hey, let's blow it up.
443
00:25:17,567 --> 00:25:18,667
Let's nuke it, right?
444
00:25:18,667 --> 00:25:20,667
Well, instead of one
big problem,
445
00:25:20,667 --> 00:25:22,500
now you have
slightly smaller problems,
446
00:25:22,567 --> 00:25:23,999
and they're radioactive,
by the way.
447
00:25:23,999 --> 00:25:24,900
and they're radioactive,
by the way.
448
00:25:25,000 --> 00:25:26,166
So you don't want to do that.
449
00:25:28,000 --> 00:25:30,500
[Rowe]
Computer simulations revealed
450
00:25:30,567 --> 00:25:32,166
that even the world's largest
451
00:25:32,166 --> 00:25:36,367
nuclear weapon had only
1 percent of the energy needed
452
00:25:36,367 --> 00:25:40,266
to destroy the original
1,800-foot Apep.
453
00:25:42,166 --> 00:25:46,100
We needed the world's most
powerful nuclear weapon
454
00:25:46,166 --> 00:25:50,700
and 99 of its best friends,
launch them all simultaneously,
455
00:25:50,767 --> 00:25:53,999
and have them simultaneously
hit the asteroid.
456
00:25:53,999 --> 00:25:54,200
and have them simultaneously
hit the asteroid.
457
00:25:54,266 --> 00:25:57,600
It was simply beyond our
technological capabilities.
458
00:26:00,300 --> 00:26:02,467
[Rowe] Fortunately,
thanks to the DAAFE mission,
459
00:26:02,467 --> 00:26:06,567
we only had to take out
the 300-foot Apep 2.0.
460
00:26:12,100 --> 00:26:15,166
Could we blow the smaller
asteroid out of the sky?
461
00:26:19,100 --> 00:26:22,667
Maybe, but launching
a nuclear Hail Mary
462
00:26:22,767 --> 00:26:23,999
would be
very controversial.
463
00:26:23,999 --> 00:26:24,500
would be
very controversial.
464
00:26:26,500 --> 00:26:31,166
Nuclear devices
are the most powerful,
465
00:26:31,166 --> 00:26:32,867
really, one of the
most emotional
466
00:26:32,867 --> 00:26:35,900
things that humans have
ever invented.
467
00:26:39,767 --> 00:26:43,300
[Rivkin] They are the most
powerful tool in our toolbox.
468
00:26:43,367 --> 00:26:46,367
We've got a hammer,
and it's a very big hammer,
469
00:26:46,467 --> 00:26:49,767
but there are a lot of
concerns with them,
470
00:26:49,867 --> 00:26:53,266
so they cannot be
tested in space,
471
00:26:53,367 --> 00:26:53,999
according to international law.
472
00:26:53,999 --> 00:26:55,000
according to international law.
473
00:26:56,567 --> 00:26:59,767
[Rowe] Without being able
to test nukes in space,
474
00:26:59,867 --> 00:27:01,667
they were considered
too big a risk,
475
00:27:06,100 --> 00:27:10,166
but New York had one final
potential savior,
476
00:27:11,400 --> 00:27:13,166
the Earth itself.
477
00:27:16,900 --> 00:27:20,000
2013, Chelyabinsk, Russia.
478
00:27:21,600 --> 00:27:23,999
An asteroid blew up
in the atmosphere.
479
00:27:23,999 --> 00:27:24,266
An asteroid blew up
in the atmosphere.
480
00:27:26,600 --> 00:27:28,767
It didn't make it all the way
to the surface,
481
00:27:28,767 --> 00:27:31,467
and the people in Chelyabinsk
are very lucky because of that.
482
00:27:33,100 --> 00:27:36,100
[Rowe] The 60-foot-wide
Chelyabinsk asteroid
483
00:27:36,166 --> 00:27:38,166
was rocky like Apep,
484
00:27:39,000 --> 00:27:41,000
and it moved
at a similar velocity,
485
00:27:41,100 --> 00:27:43,000
around 40,000 miles an hour,
486
00:27:44,867 --> 00:27:50,600
but it met its match when it
entered Earth's atmosphere.
487
00:27:50,667 --> 00:27:52,667
Earth's atmosphere
doesn't look like much.
488
00:27:52,767 --> 00:27:53,999
You think, oh, it's just air,
it doesn't matter,
489
00:27:53,999 --> 00:27:54,667
You think, oh, it's just air,
it doesn't matter,
490
00:27:54,767 --> 00:27:57,367
but all of those molecules
actually exert pressure
491
00:27:57,367 --> 00:27:58,867
on the front edge
of the asteroid,
492
00:27:58,967 --> 00:28:02,266
slowing it down
and heating it up.
493
00:28:02,266 --> 00:28:03,367
Rock heated up
494
00:28:03,467 --> 00:28:07,767
and began to crumble and explode
as it came through.
495
00:28:07,867 --> 00:28:10,567
[Rowe] The midair explosion,
called an airburst,
496
00:28:10,567 --> 00:28:15,166
released more energy
than 440,000 tons of TNT.
497
00:28:21,500 --> 00:28:23,767
The shockwave traveled
100 miles,
498
00:28:24,800 --> 00:28:27,300
damaging 7,000 buildings
499
00:28:27,367 --> 00:28:29,266
and injuring 1,500 people.
500
00:28:30,700 --> 00:28:33,200
But a ground strike
hitting a city
501
00:28:33,266 --> 00:28:34,467
would have been a lot worse.
502
00:28:42,300 --> 00:28:46,500
Apep 2.0 was five times larger
than the Chelyabinsk Rock.
503
00:28:48,700 --> 00:28:50,367
Would it break up during its
504
00:28:50,467 --> 00:28:53,867
10-second trip down
through the atmosphere,
505
00:28:53,967 --> 00:28:53,999
or would it pierce
right through?
506
00:28:53,999 --> 00:28:58,367
or would it pierce
right through?
507
00:28:58,467 --> 00:29:01,500
The planetary defense team
ran simulations.
508
00:29:03,667 --> 00:29:07,000
As that comes through
Earth's atmosphere,
509
00:29:07,100 --> 00:29:10,000
some of that hot air can get
into the cracks.
510
00:29:11,066 --> 00:29:14,467
[Rowe] Friction and pressure
would heat Apep 2.0's
511
00:29:14,567 --> 00:29:17,867
surface to thousands of
degrees Fahrenheit.
512
00:29:19,100 --> 00:29:22,000
At those temperatures,
even rock burns.
513
00:29:23,300 --> 00:29:23,999
We would see this
flaming monster
514
00:29:23,999 --> 00:29:26,467
We would see this
flaming monster
515
00:29:26,567 --> 00:29:30,767
of death coming racing
through our atmosphere.
516
00:29:30,767 --> 00:29:34,166
There are gonna be pieces of
debris vaporizing
517
00:29:34,266 --> 00:29:35,567
and coming off of it.
518
00:29:35,567 --> 00:29:37,667
So you get these flashes of
light that happen
519
00:29:37,767 --> 00:29:39,367
one after another -- pop, pop,
pop, pop, pop, pop, pop,
520
00:29:39,367 --> 00:29:40,900
as these things
are blowing up.
521
00:29:46,667 --> 00:29:48,066
[Rowe]
The computer simulations
522
00:29:48,066 --> 00:29:50,000
showed that the extra bulk of
523
00:29:50,100 --> 00:29:53,767
Apep 2.0 would stop it from
blowing up.
524
00:29:57,100 --> 00:29:59,800
Some of the asteroid would
blast away,
525
00:29:59,867 --> 00:30:01,900
but most of the space rock
526
00:30:02,000 --> 00:30:05,600
would reach the
Earth's surface.
527
00:30:05,667 --> 00:30:07,800
So that close to the
actual impact,
528
00:30:07,867 --> 00:30:10,200
we pretty much just had to
hunker down and take it.
529
00:30:13,567 --> 00:30:16,400
[Rowe] The prospects for
New York City were grim.
530
00:30:18,100 --> 00:30:20,300
It was facing annihilation.
531
00:30:32,667 --> 00:30:35,166
[Rowe] October 2029.
532
00:30:35,266 --> 00:30:39,367
Three weeks to impact.
533
00:30:39,467 --> 00:30:42,800
For the citizens of the New York
metropolitan area,
534
00:30:42,867 --> 00:30:47,867
there was only one goal --
Get out of the firing line.
535
00:30:52,567 --> 00:30:53,567
Now we had to have
536
00:30:53,600 --> 00:30:56,024
the plans in place
to evacuate these cities.
537
00:30:56,024 --> 00:30:57,000
the plans in place
to evacuate these cities.
538
00:30:57,100 --> 00:31:01,500
It was a major emergency for
New York and its citizens.
539
00:31:01,567 --> 00:31:04,200
Time to move out of the way.
540
00:31:05,567 --> 00:31:08,467
[Rowe] To work out who
should evacuate and to where,
541
00:31:08,567 --> 00:31:10,600
Scientists ran detailed
projections
542
00:31:10,667 --> 00:31:14,400
of the potential blast area.
543
00:31:14,467 --> 00:31:17,467
There's an ellipse there that
we call the hazard ellipse that
544
00:31:17,567 --> 00:31:21,600
says somewhere in this area is
where the asteroid will hit.
545
00:31:21,667 --> 00:31:23,467
That means there's
a little wiggle room
546
00:31:23,567 --> 00:31:26,024
and a range of areas
that are in danger.
547
00:31:26,024 --> 00:31:26,100
and a range of areas
that are in danger.
548
00:31:28,066 --> 00:31:31,166
[Rowe] Based on the hazard
ellipse projections,
549
00:31:31,266 --> 00:31:34,100
the government issued
evacuation orders
550
00:31:34,166 --> 00:31:36,767
for the tri-state area,
551
00:31:36,867 --> 00:31:39,567
and as far south
as Philadelphia.
552
00:31:39,567 --> 00:31:43,667
It was the biggest evacuation
in US history.
553
00:31:43,667 --> 00:31:46,567
Millions were displaced.
554
00:31:46,667 --> 00:31:49,066
It was physically horrific.
555
00:31:51,300 --> 00:31:54,266
I live in the New York
metropolitan area.
556
00:31:54,266 --> 00:31:56,024
It was horrible for me and my
family and my friends,
557
00:31:56,024 --> 00:31:57,266
It was horrible for me and my
family and my friends,
558
00:31:57,266 --> 00:32:01,800
but we can't just sit here and
cross our fingers and hope that
559
00:32:01,867 --> 00:32:03,300
we don't get struck.
560
00:32:04,867 --> 00:32:07,367
[Rowe] The freeways out of the
city were jammed.
561
00:32:11,767 --> 00:32:14,000
Trains were packed.
562
00:32:14,100 --> 00:32:16,867
Over 23 million
people evacuated,
563
00:32:17,967 --> 00:32:20,567
leaving behind
a deserted city.
564
00:32:23,166 --> 00:32:25,767
Computer models
show that the epicenter
565
00:32:25,767 --> 00:32:26,024
of the strike
would be Manhattan.
566
00:32:26,024 --> 00:32:27,800
of the strike
would be Manhattan.
567
00:32:31,000 --> 00:32:35,200
The blast would reduce
the city to rubble and ash.
568
00:32:36,266 --> 00:32:39,300
There would be a one-mile-wide
crater resulting from it,
569
00:32:39,367 --> 00:32:41,367
so deep that
it would actually take
570
00:32:41,467 --> 00:32:44,767
the entire subway system and
turn it upside down and lay it
571
00:32:44,867 --> 00:32:47,700
onto the rim of the crater.
572
00:32:47,767 --> 00:32:50,166
You would have
a magnitude 5 earthquake
573
00:32:50,166 --> 00:32:52,266
at even six miles away
from that,
574
00:32:52,367 --> 00:32:54,467
and there would be
a big air blast,
575
00:32:54,467 --> 00:32:56,024
400-mile-an-hour winds.
576
00:32:56,024 --> 00:32:56,367
400-mile-an-hour winds.
577
00:32:57,800 --> 00:33:00,400
Something as light as a pencil
could be a lethal weapon
578
00:33:00,467 --> 00:33:02,266
when picked up by a shock wave
like that.
579
00:33:03,800 --> 00:33:07,767
As the crater is blasting out
and excavating itself,
580
00:33:07,867 --> 00:33:13,467
there would be little blobs of
molten rock that get thrown out
581
00:33:13,567 --> 00:33:16,300
in this wave, going faster than
the speed of sound,
582
00:33:18,266 --> 00:33:19,700
Like drops a fiery rain,
583
00:33:19,767 --> 00:33:22,667
if you will, landing back miles
away from the crater.
584
00:33:27,767 --> 00:33:29,800
[Rowe]
The city would be on fire.
585
00:33:32,266 --> 00:33:35,567
So, um, there's just
no upside to this.
586
00:33:35,667 --> 00:33:36,567
There's nothing good.
587
00:33:36,600 --> 00:33:38,900
It's just all
from bad to horrific.
588
00:33:40,900 --> 00:33:43,567
[Rowe]
But New York is by the ocean.
589
00:33:43,567 --> 00:33:48,266
What would happen if Apep 2.0
hit the sea?
590
00:33:52,567 --> 00:33:56,000
Detailed simulations have
revealed two very
591
00:33:56,066 --> 00:33:57,166
different outcomes
592
00:33:57,166 --> 00:34:00,867
for an asteroid hitting
the ocean at high speeds.
593
00:34:04,400 --> 00:34:07,467
SUTTER: If a giant asteroid
strikes the deep ocean,
594
00:34:07,567 --> 00:34:09,600
less than 1 percent
of its energy
595
00:34:09,667 --> 00:34:11,467
gets converted into waves.
596
00:34:11,467 --> 00:34:13,767
Those waves quickly disperse.
597
00:34:13,867 --> 00:34:16,567
They quickly lose energy as
they travel.
598
00:34:16,567 --> 00:34:20,467
By the time they reach
the coast, it might just be
599
00:34:20,467 --> 00:34:21,467
a little ripple,
600
00:34:21,567 --> 00:34:23,500
you might not even be able to
surf on it.
601
00:34:29,667 --> 00:34:32,467
[Rowe] If the asteroid hit
shallow coastal waters,
602
00:34:34,867 --> 00:34:37,700
it could cause significant
damage along the shoreline.
603
00:34:39,467 --> 00:34:43,300
If an asteroid, the size of
Apep hits the continental shelf
604
00:34:43,367 --> 00:34:45,367
where the water is
relatively shallow,
605
00:34:45,367 --> 00:34:48,467
then it could potentially
cause a tsunami.
606
00:34:52,700 --> 00:34:54,867
[Rowe] But that would just be
the start of the problems.
607
00:34:58,200 --> 00:34:59,867
With a shallow water impactor,
608
00:34:59,867 --> 00:35:03,200
huge amounts of steam are
generated basically by
609
00:35:03,266 --> 00:35:06,667
the energy of that impactor
vaporizing all the water.
610
00:35:06,667 --> 00:35:08,967
Well, all the water is then put
up into the atmosphere,
611
00:35:08,967 --> 00:35:12,266
and water is a really good
greenhouse gas.
612
00:35:12,367 --> 00:35:14,166
So you have warming from
the launch of water
613
00:35:14,166 --> 00:35:15,200
up into the atmosphere.
614
00:35:15,266 --> 00:35:17,867
You have cooling
from all of the ash and dust.
615
00:35:24,266 --> 00:35:25,266
[Rowe]
A short bout of warming
616
00:35:25,367 --> 00:35:26,024
would be followed
by a brutal winter.
617
00:35:26,024 --> 00:35:27,667
would be followed
by a brutal winter.
618
00:35:29,166 --> 00:35:31,800
Crops would fail.
619
00:35:31,867 --> 00:35:37,800
This impact has so many
horrible follow-on consequences.
620
00:35:37,867 --> 00:35:40,767
That tells us how difficult
it would be to --
621
00:35:40,867 --> 00:35:43,667
to rebuild from an event
like this.
622
00:35:47,600 --> 00:35:48,667
[Rowe] The eastern seaboard
623
00:35:48,667 --> 00:35:52,066
would suffer a serious economic
downturn.
624
00:35:52,066 --> 00:35:54,166
It would take decades
to recover.
625
00:35:59,200 --> 00:36:01,100
November 3rd, 2029.
626
00:36:02,500 --> 00:36:04,567
One day until impact.
627
00:36:06,400 --> 00:36:09,667
The space rock was just
400,000 miles away,
628
00:36:10,667 --> 00:36:16,000
and traveling 13 times faster
than an F-15 fighter jet.
629
00:36:16,100 --> 00:36:20,367
It was first a dim star,
and then a brighter star,
630
00:36:20,467 --> 00:36:23,166
and then in the hours before,
you can actually see it
631
00:36:23,266 --> 00:36:24,367
approaching the Earth.
632
00:36:25,867 --> 00:36:26,024
[Rowe]
New York looked outmatched.
633
00:36:26,024 --> 00:36:28,700
[Rowe]
New York looked outmatched.
634
00:36:28,767 --> 00:36:31,700
It looked like Apep
would win,
635
00:36:31,767 --> 00:36:34,600
but this was not the end of
the game.
636
00:36:34,667 --> 00:36:37,467
Earth had one final card
to play.
637
00:36:49,467 --> 00:36:51,567
[Rowe]
November 4th, 2029.
638
00:36:53,500 --> 00:36:57,300
The 300-foot Apep 2.0
reached Earth.
639
00:36:59,800 --> 00:37:01,367
The space rock pierced our
640
00:37:01,367 --> 00:37:05,166
atmosphere and hurtled
towards the surface.
641
00:37:18,100 --> 00:37:22,000
Then the asteroid passed
over Manhattan,
642
00:37:24,367 --> 00:37:27,066
over Brooklyn,
643
00:37:27,066 --> 00:37:28,767
and over Coney Island.
644
00:37:31,100 --> 00:37:35,400
It hit deep ocean,
350 miles off the coast.
645
00:37:42,200 --> 00:37:45,767
Apep 2.0 missed New York.
646
00:37:45,767 --> 00:37:46,667
But how?
647
00:37:50,300 --> 00:37:52,200
Our 7-year battle with
the asteroid
648
00:37:52,266 --> 00:37:55,166
resolved in a matter
of seconds
649
00:37:55,166 --> 00:37:58,200
thanks to orbital dynamics.
650
00:37:59,300 --> 00:38:01,567
The orbit of the asteroid
and the orbit of the Earth
651
00:38:01,667 --> 00:38:05,400
and the way the Earth spins in
this great cosmic ballet
652
00:38:05,467 --> 00:38:06,700
means that
653
00:38:06,767 --> 00:38:10,266
a few seconds earlier or later
makes the difference between
654
00:38:10,266 --> 00:38:11,699
hitting the ocean
and hitting land.
655
00:38:11,699 --> 00:38:12,400
hitting the ocean
and hitting land.
656
00:38:13,800 --> 00:38:16,266
[Rowe] Earth rotates at
1,000 miles an hour
657
00:38:17,700 --> 00:38:22,567
and orbits the sun at close
to 65,000 miles an hour.
658
00:38:22,567 --> 00:38:26,700
Apep orbited
at 40,000 miles an hour,
659
00:38:26,767 --> 00:38:31,467
but Apep 2.0 traveled
fractionally slower.
660
00:38:33,266 --> 00:38:36,166
The impact of the DAAFE mission
that sheared off
661
00:38:36,266 --> 00:38:41,367
the 300-foot chunk of rock
had also slowed it down.
662
00:38:41,467 --> 00:38:41,699
Slowing down Apep
663
00:38:41,699 --> 00:38:42,867
Slowing down Apep
664
00:38:42,967 --> 00:38:45,166
changed when it's going to
intersect the Earth.
665
00:38:45,266 --> 00:38:47,100
So New York spun out of
the crosshairs.
666
00:38:51,700 --> 00:38:56,066
[Rowe] Apep 2.0, hit
the ocean and exploded,
667
00:38:56,066 --> 00:38:57,667
breaking up instantly.
668
00:39:00,100 --> 00:39:03,467
The strike threw up a wall of
water into the air,
669
00:39:03,467 --> 00:39:05,667
followed by huge clouds
of steam.
670
00:39:07,500 --> 00:39:11,000
The impact created small
surface waves that quickly
671
00:39:11,066 --> 00:39:11,699
died away.
672
00:39:11,699 --> 00:39:12,200
died away.
673
00:39:13,600 --> 00:39:17,700
It's like doing a gigantic
interplanetary belly flop.
674
00:39:17,767 --> 00:39:20,767
It evaporates, it obliterates,
and it generates
675
00:39:20,767 --> 00:39:23,500
an enormous amount of steam,
and it sets up shock waves.
676
00:39:23,567 --> 00:39:25,266
All that energy is still
released,
677
00:39:25,367 --> 00:39:28,467
but the ocean is capable of
absorbing it.
678
00:39:31,767 --> 00:39:35,600
[Rowe] New York dodged the
bullet and escaped unscathed
679
00:39:37,266 --> 00:39:40,400
thanks to the
dedication, ingenuity,
680
00:39:40,467 --> 00:39:41,699
and enterprise of a global
team of scientists.
681
00:39:41,699 --> 00:39:48,200
and enterprise of a global
team of scientists.
682
00:39:50,500 --> 00:39:54,667
Apep was an
imaginary asteroid,
683
00:39:54,767 --> 00:39:58,700
but there are many potentially
hazardous space rocks out there.
684
00:40:01,467 --> 00:40:04,266
Thankfully,
this was a fictional scenario.
685
00:40:04,367 --> 00:40:07,867
It's a thought exercise, but
it's informed by our real,
686
00:40:07,967 --> 00:40:11,000
actual knowledge we've gained
over the years of dealing with,
687
00:40:11,066 --> 00:40:11,699
you know, potential close
approaches and the hazard from
688
00:40:11,699 --> 00:40:13,900
you know, potential close
approaches and the hazard from
689
00:40:14,000 --> 00:40:18,266
real asteroids that we actually
know about.
690
00:40:18,266 --> 00:40:21,867
Asteroid research is a good
insurance policy
691
00:40:21,967 --> 00:40:23,567
for our species.
692
00:40:23,567 --> 00:40:27,066
Hopefully we will never need
to carry these things out
693
00:40:27,066 --> 00:40:28,567
for real.
694
00:40:28,567 --> 00:40:30,867
[Rowe] Large
asteroid strikes are rare,
695
00:40:32,300 --> 00:40:34,066
but we cannot be complacent.
696
00:40:39,266 --> 00:40:41,699
The most important thing to
do in planetary defense
697
00:40:41,699 --> 00:40:42,667
The most important thing to
do in planetary defense
698
00:40:42,767 --> 00:40:44,400
is to find them early.
699
00:40:44,467 --> 00:40:46,767
If we find them early, we have
a chance to predict
700
00:40:46,767 --> 00:40:49,600
the possible impacts and we
have a chance to mitigate them.
701
00:40:54,767 --> 00:40:56,600
[Rowe]
Our technology is improving,
702
00:40:58,066 --> 00:41:01,400
so we can detect incoming
space rocks earlier,
703
00:41:03,667 --> 00:41:06,200
but we need to be vigilant,
704
00:41:06,266 --> 00:41:10,767
because the threat from
asteroids is not going away.
705
00:41:12,066 --> 00:41:13,567
Apart from climate change,
706
00:41:13,567 --> 00:41:17,166
asteroid strikes are, in my
opinion, the most dangerous
707
00:41:17,166 --> 00:41:18,567
thing to life on Earth.
708
00:41:19,867 --> 00:41:21,767
[Plait] A lot of the times
the question I get is,
709
00:41:21,867 --> 00:41:23,767
"What are the chances of this
happening?"
710
00:41:23,867 --> 00:41:26,567
And they don't like the answer
because I say 100 percent.
711
00:41:28,700 --> 00:41:29,867
It takes time.
712
00:41:29,900 --> 00:41:33,000
It may not be for a week,
a month, a year, a century.
713
00:41:33,066 --> 00:41:35,467
But studying these asteroids
informs us on
714
00:41:35,567 --> 00:41:37,400
what we can do
to prevent an impact.
715
00:41:39,000 --> 00:41:41,266
There are a lot of natural
disasters that we can do
716
00:41:41,266 --> 00:41:41,699
nothing about --
earthquakes, hurricanes,
717
00:41:41,699 --> 00:41:43,400
nothing about --
earthquakes, hurricanes,
718
00:41:43,467 --> 00:41:44,367
that sort of thing.
719
00:41:44,367 --> 00:41:46,567
Here is
something way more devastating
720
00:41:46,667 --> 00:41:50,400
than any of those,
and we can prevent them.
721
00:41:50,467 --> 00:41:52,600
So we have to keep our eyes on
722
00:41:52,667 --> 00:41:54,767
the prize and our eyes on
the skies.
57524
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