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This week, The Economist published a high-profile
article with a review and vision of further
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military operations in Ukraine by the commander-in-chief
of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Zaluzhnyi.
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And in this article, quite succinctly and
clearly set the accents as to how the Ukrainian
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defense forces should act in the future and
what caused the slowdown of the offensive
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launched this summer.
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The Russian media picked up the term "positional
warfare" and began to develop it to the level
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of a deafening stalemate of the Ukrainians
in the war, although the meaning was quite
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different.
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The calculation of the Ukrainian command was
to inflict such losses on the enemy that would
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force them to retreat to more favorable lines,
but the Russian command did otherwise.
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They began reinforcing their defensive lines
and positions with personnel, which served
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as a brake element.
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The enemy had colossal losses in personnel,
which should have forced the opposing side
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to retreat.
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But instead, Russia began moving its units
from the Kherson region to the Zaporizhzhya
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region for reinforcement.
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The Russians' first line of defense, the supply
line, was underestimated.
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It was formed according to the classical Soviet
method, but the Russian command hypertrophied
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the mining of fields to an unprecedented level
in history.
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There were up to 5 landmines of both anti-tank
and anti-personnel types placed on one square
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meter.
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No army in the world had encountered such
dense mining, and even during World War II,
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there was no such extensive mining of supply
routes.
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At the start of the offensive, the AFU lacked
demining equipment.
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This affected the pace of advance in the first
weeks of the offensive and led to the slowing
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down of processes at the initial stage.
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He also mentions the factor of dominance in
airspace.
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Russia began to use corrected planning bombs,
and 300 or more bombs flew to Ukrainian positions
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every day.
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The record number per day was 1,000 bombs.
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An offensive and any active operations are
simply impossible under such conditions.
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And it is precisely because of such difficulties
that Zaluzhnyi emphasizes the problem of air
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dominance of Russian aviation before the start
of deliveries of F-16 fighters to Ukraine.
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That is why the opinion about an inevitable
period of positional war has arisen.
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But it is not about freezing the war, but
about the need to revise the overall strategy
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and prepare the offensive of the AFU at a
completely different level.
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He also raises the issue of Electromagnetic
warfare complexes.
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The Russian forces, while not dominating the
use of drones, are much more effective in
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using their Electromagnetic warfare, which
found the key to reduce the effectiveness
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of 155 mm GPS-guided Excalibur artillery shells.
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All of this leads to the fact that the war
in Ukraine is increasingly resembling a positional
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one.
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Positional warfare is a type of warfare in
which the confrontation between sides occurs
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on continuous, relatively stable fronts with
deeply entrenched defenses, with advances
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not measured in kilometers or tens of kilometers,
but rather in tens and hundreds of meters.
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But positional warfare can both favor the
enemy, accumulate reserves, and deplete them.
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And this is Zaluzhnyi's main message.
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Now it is important for the Ukrainians not
so much to liberate territories as to deplete
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the enemy, while decisions are being made
to qualitatively improve the army's offensive
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capabilities.
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These qualitative changes are possible already
in 2024, but until then the main task of the
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Ukrainian army should be to hold the front
line and create conditions that would not
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allow the Russians to build up their potential.
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Now, I have a question for you: in your estimation,
how much longer do you think the war in Ukraine
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will continue if we consider its hypothetical
conclusion to be the Ukrainian Armed Forces
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reaching the borders of 2013?
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