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Putin's a very, very clever
and calculating man.
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It was very, very difficult
to find leverage,
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and to find ways
of constraining him.
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You know, he threatened me
at one point and said, you know,
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"Boris, I don't want to hurt you,
but with a missile,
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"it would only take a minute."
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Vladimir Putin has rocked the
foundations of European security.
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This is the story
of Putin's path to war -
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how and why he wrong-footed the West
through a decade of clashes...
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..told by the leaders who've
locked horns with him.
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I was clear, there could be
no business as usual with Russia.
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In this episode,
Putin ramps up his aggression.
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From an audacious poisoning...
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We leave no stone unturned.
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We should look at every
opportunity to respond.
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..to the moment he launched an
invasion that threatened
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to engulf Europe.
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We worked to the very end
to try to convince them
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to change their plans,
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until the tanks were rolling,
and the planes were flying.
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The issue for Putin was his project
to rebuild the Soviet empire.
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I don't know Putin.
He's said nice things about me -
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if we got along well,
that would be good.
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Frankly, Putin has built up their
military again and again, and again.
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Our nuclear's old and tired,
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and his nuclear is tippy-top,
from what I hear.
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CHEERING
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Welcome home, Mr President!
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Donald Trump was sworn in
as president amidst
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a storm of allegations of Russian
interference in his election.
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After the election,
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I called the White House
for congratulate Trump.
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And definitely, I tried to be
prepared for this, er,
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phone conversation,
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because I doubt that Ukraine was
among his first priorities.
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My message to the Trump was
exactly like this -
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from the very first
phone conversation,
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"Don't trust Putin."
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Since Russia's invasion
of Crimea three years earlier,
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Ukraine had been lobbying America to
send its Javelin anti-tank missiles.
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President Obama had refused,
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wary of escalating tensions
with Russia.
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Now, Poroshenko had a chance
to pitch it to Trump.
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You could see that Poroshenko
was literally sweating,
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and very nervous.
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You know, the look on his face -
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I won't forget that, as he moved
forward into the office,
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full of trepidation, because
so much was riding on this.
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At that time, we have
the Russian occupation.
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At that time,
the Crimea was occupied.
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At that time, Donbas was occupied.
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Would you like to say something?
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That's a great honour,
and a great pleasure to be together
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with you, dear Mr President.
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One of the most reliable,
supportive, and, er, partner,
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strategic partner for Ukraine.
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The President was very
welcoming to Poroshenko.
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And Poroshenko, you know, of course,
was a successful businessman.
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You know, Trump was
a successful businessman.
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I think that they,
kind of, hit it off.
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And it's a great honour to have you,
Mr President, thank you.
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I said, "Mr President,
lethal weapons.
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"We need lethal weapons.
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"Javelin is an anti-tank,
very effective weapon."
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President Poroshenko was able to
show the effect that Russian
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aggression was continuing
to have on the Ukrainian people,
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the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
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I think President Trump recognised
that Ukraine was under
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serious duress, and it would require
some deterrent capabilities.
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I'm proud - on my back,
there was wings,
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that I go out from the Oval
Cabinet with the direct promises
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of President Trump for the Javelin.
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That was a great day.
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But it wasn't that simple.
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Trump still hadn't signed off
on the deal when he flew to
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a G20 summit two weeks later.
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Here, he would have
his first face-to-face meeting
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with Vladimir Putin.
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We were getting, you know,
suggestions, erm,
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from the Russians and from
President Putin
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that they would obviously be pretty
hostile er, if there were
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any transfers of weaponry,
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particularly the Javelin
anti-tank weapons, to Ukraine.
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00:06:01,420 --> 00:06:04,620
There was sensitivity on the part
of the president that anything
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we'd do to help Ukraine
would anger Russia.
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00:06:08,380 --> 00:06:11,220
And, of course, he was very
interested in being friends,
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for lack of a better term,
with President Putin.
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We look forward to a lot of
very positive things
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happening for Russia,
for the United States,
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and for everybody concerned.
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Trump really laboured under
the delusion that a good personal
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relationship with Putin would
moderate Putin's behaviour.
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Thank you. Here we go.
Thank you. Thank you.
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Thank you very much. Thank you.
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FIONA HILL: Later in a phone call,
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President Putin told
President Trump,
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"If you supply the Ukrainians with
weapons, they will ask for more".
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The Russians clearly didn't
understand why it was that
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Ukraine might have any importance
to the United States
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in a foreign policy and
security sense.
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Very dismissive.
"What's Ukraine to you?
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"Why are you so concerned
about Ukraine?"
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Two days after Trump's
meeting with Putin,
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his new envoy to Ukraine was sent to
assess the situation on the ground.
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There had been sporadic fighting
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since the Russian invasion
three years earlier.
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We flew very low and very fast
across eastern Ukraine.
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We went to an apartment building.
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Everything had been shot out.
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You could look over the line
of contact and see the
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Russian forces on the other side.
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The Ukrainians showed
where the Russian tanks are,
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and said, "We can't have
the tanks this close.
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"If they move towards us, we need
to be able to take them out."
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They said that, "We need these
lethal defensive arms
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"as quickly as possible".
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Back in Washington, Volker joined
Trump's National Security Team
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in trying to convince the President.
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I said, "Russia is using all
kinds of offensive arms
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"inside Ukrainian territory
to kill Ukrainians".
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"So, from both a moral
and a defensive,
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"and a diplomatic perspective,
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"you need to actually provide
these lethal defensive weapons."
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I said, "Not a Russian tank would
be hurt by a Javelin missile
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"if it didn't attack Ukraine.
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"There wasn't a Russian infantryman
that would be injured or killed
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"by American-provided ammunition
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"if they didn't attack
the sovereign country of Ukraine."
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I tried to make the case
that it's actually weakness
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that provokes Russia.
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And I believe that Russia invaded
Ukraine in 2014 because Putin said,
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"I can get away with it.
The Americans won't do anything."
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So, I think the provision of
defensive capabilities to Ukraine
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was important to establish or
re-establish deterrence of Russia.
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President Trump agreed.
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At the end of that year,
Trump finally signed the order
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to send lethal weapons to Ukraine.
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Our reaction to this decision that
has been taken by President Trump,
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that Americans has crossed the line.
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He was talked into sending
these Javelins.
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HE CLEARS THROAT
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And, of course, it was only
the beginning of arming Ukraine.
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The beginning of
a very dangerous path.
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The fact that the US was supplying
the regime with lethal weapons, er,
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I think he saw as a threat to him.
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Putin believed Ukraine
was illegitimate.
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It had ripped out of the
Soviet Union, out of Russia,
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and he made it clear that he
considered the break-up of
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the Soviet Union the greatest
geopolitical catastrophe
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of the 20th century.
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Since 1991, 13 former Communist
countries had joined
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the defensive alliance of NATO,
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and Ukraine was lobbying
to do the same.
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After Putin's invasion of Crimea,
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NATO had stepped up its presence
along its eastern flank
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and deployed a new
missile defence system.
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SPEAKING IN RUSSIAN
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..Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin.
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APPLAUSE
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Facing re-election,
Putin seized on the idea of a threat
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from the West as a rallying cry.
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APPLAUSE
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I remember that video,
and I really just thought of it as,
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"This is Russian domestic politics.
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"He's trying to make people feel
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"that the US and the West is a
threat and that he's tough,
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"and Russia's strong,
and he can make sure that
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"he protects the Russian people."
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Is this a sign that this is
definitely something that
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would be done, or actually just
trying to sabre-rattle?
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Trying to say, you know,
"I'm a strong man here.
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"I could do this if I wanted to."
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Only a few days later,
the British Prime Minister would be
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forced to deal with a threat from
Russia on her own turf.
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I remember my private secretary
saying to me that this couple
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had been taken ill on
this park bench in Salisbury.
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So, when I was first told, it wasn't
absolutely clear what it was.
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Of course, quite quickly,
it became quite clear that this was
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the use of a chemical weapon.
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A nerve agent.
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00:12:06,380 --> 00:12:09,820
The government has confirmed
that the two people suspected of
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being poisoned in Salisbury are a
former Russian spy and his daughter.
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00:12:13,340 --> 00:12:17,260
Sergei and Yulia Skripal remain
critically ill in hospital.
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The Foreign Secretary says the
government will respond robustly
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if any Russian state
responsibility is proven.
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As soon as we identified
the victims, we knew that it was
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likely to have some kind of
Russian angle to it.
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The chemical weapon
that had been used,
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the fact that it was a Novichok -
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and Novichoks had been developed
actually in the period
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of the Soviet Union.
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So, fairly swiftly,
our key prime suspect,
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if you like, was the Russian state.
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This was a trap, er, a set-up.
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Because it has no logical
explanation at all.
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First, we do not need
to kill these people.
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Second, if there is a need,
there is a much...
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..much simple things to do that,
er, and unnoticed, of course,
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00:13:03,100 --> 00:13:07,420
they will simply get out of
the map and disappear.
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00:13:09,900 --> 00:13:13,260
THERESA MAY: The government has
concluded that it is highly likely
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that Russia was responsible
for the act against
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Sergei and Yulia Skripal.
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00:13:17,980 --> 00:13:24,060
"Highly likely" is a new invention
of the British diplomacy to
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describe why they punish people.
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Because these people are
"highly likely" guilty.
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00:13:29,580 --> 00:13:32,060
Like, you know, in Alice
in Wonderland,
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and the King said, er,
"Let's ask the jury,"
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and the Queen shouted, "No jury.
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"Sentence first,
verdict afterwards."
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That's the logic of "highly likely".
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Their initial approach
was the classic -
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00:14:04,860 --> 00:14:07,940
admit nothing, deny everything,
make counteraccusations.
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00:14:07,940 --> 00:14:11,580
And so, we wanted the Russians
to understand we were not prepared
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00:14:11,580 --> 00:14:15,420
to allow this grotesque attack
to go unpunished.
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00:14:17,620 --> 00:14:20,420
Theresa May called in
her top advisers.
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The Prime Minister's view
on this was,
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"We leave no stone unturned.
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00:14:25,740 --> 00:14:29,580
"We should look at every
opportunity to respond to what was
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00:14:29,580 --> 00:14:31,700
"an outrageous provocation."
220
00:14:31,700 --> 00:14:33,700
You have nothing off the table.
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You have to be prepared to
look at all options.
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00:14:36,420 --> 00:14:40,580
We discussed a key cornerstone,
if you like, of the NATO alliance
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where if a member of the alliance
is attacked, under Article 5,
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they can essentially ask
for response from all NATO allies.
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00:14:47,580 --> 00:14:50,420
Somebody said "Look,
Theresa, hang on a minute.
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00:14:50,420 --> 00:14:52,780
"This would be a little
bit disproportionate.
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00:14:52,780 --> 00:14:57,100
"The only time Article 5 has
actually been used was in response
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00:14:57,100 --> 00:14:59,100
"to the 9/11 attacks.
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00:14:59,100 --> 00:15:03,260
"And that's probably going to feel,
to some of our allies, like a bit
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"of a disproportionate response."
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We came to the decision
that we would expel
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Russian intelligence officers,
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00:15:12,540 --> 00:15:16,020
and that was an important signal
to Russia that we know exactly
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00:15:16,020 --> 00:15:17,620
what you've done, and actually,
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00:15:17,620 --> 00:15:20,140
we are going to act
against your network.
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To show the West meant business,
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the Prime Minister wanted her allies
to kick out Russian spies, as well.
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Top of the list was
the American President.
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I said, we had a very clear
expectation from the United States,
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we had our special relationship,
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00:15:38,180 --> 00:15:41,700
and if the United States wanted to
ensure that Russia got a clear
242
00:15:41,700 --> 00:15:44,740
message about chemical weapons,
they should stand alongside us.
243
00:15:44,740 --> 00:15:46,220
Who are you going to believe?
244
00:15:46,220 --> 00:15:48,420
Are you going to believe
the United Kingdom?
245
00:15:48,420 --> 00:15:50,300
Long-standing allies? Or Russia?
246
00:15:50,300 --> 00:15:52,460
His tone was, "Well, go and
ask the Europeans,
247
00:15:52,460 --> 00:15:53,900
"get them to do something.
248
00:15:53,900 --> 00:15:57,580
"If they do something, which I very
much doubt, maybe I'll do something.
249
00:15:57,580 --> 00:16:00,100
"But I'm certainly not inclined
to go out on a limb,
250
00:16:00,100 --> 00:16:02,340
"if they're not going to do it."
251
00:16:02,340 --> 00:16:09,740
What I remember is how hard
the UK had to work to build that
252
00:16:09,740 --> 00:16:14,340
international outrage that I
think the crime deserved.
253
00:16:14,340 --> 00:16:20,100
You know, you could see the magnetic
pull of Putin and Russian influence,
254
00:16:20,100 --> 00:16:21,700
even in the EU.
255
00:16:21,700 --> 00:16:24,940
We were negotiating over the weekend
to try and ensure that we had
256
00:16:24,940 --> 00:16:26,820
every country doing something.
257
00:16:26,820 --> 00:16:30,060
I'd be talking to my French
counterpart and he'd say,
258
00:16:30,060 --> 00:16:32,420
"No, we'll call the Italians.
You call the Germans."
259
00:16:32,420 --> 00:16:34,580
My Austrian counterpart
actually said to me,
260
00:16:34,580 --> 00:16:37,580
"Well, you know, this is all very
well, Fiona,
261
00:16:37,580 --> 00:16:40,700
"but, you know,
"the Russians are very nice to us.
262
00:16:40,700 --> 00:16:43,020
"Nothing like that
has happened here."
263
00:16:43,020 --> 00:16:44,540
And I was thinking in my mind,
264
00:16:44,540 --> 00:16:47,020
"My goodness, what happened
during the Cold War"?
265
00:16:47,020 --> 00:16:50,060
Vienna and Austria was
the centre of espionage,
266
00:16:50,060 --> 00:16:52,740
and just exactly these
kinds of events.
267
00:16:52,740 --> 00:16:54,540
I mean, films were made about this!
268
00:16:54,540 --> 00:16:56,620
"Wasn't there The Third Man?"
I thought to myself.
269
00:16:56,620 --> 00:16:58,660
We only got 16 EU countries
to do it, right,
270
00:16:58,660 --> 00:17:00,900
and quite a few who didn't.
271
00:17:00,900 --> 00:17:04,100
France and Germany did four each,
I think.
272
00:17:04,100 --> 00:17:07,420
Other countries did,
you know, a few.
273
00:17:07,420 --> 00:17:10,140
Ukraine - 13.
274
00:17:10,140 --> 00:17:11,620
Fantastic.
275
00:17:11,620 --> 00:17:13,860
Interesting, America -
276
00:17:13,860 --> 00:17:18,660
which was then under
Donald Trump's presidency -
277
00:17:18,660 --> 00:17:19,980
did 60.
278
00:17:19,980 --> 00:17:23,220
It's the greatest collective
expulsion of Russian diplomats
279
00:17:23,220 --> 00:17:25,620
and intelligence officials
in history.
280
00:17:25,620 --> 00:17:29,340
So far, more than 130 diplomats
or spies will have
281
00:17:29,340 --> 00:17:31,860
to leave 24 countries.
282
00:17:31,860 --> 00:17:36,020
It's rare that words in diplomacy
are backed up by so much action.
283
00:17:39,460 --> 00:17:43,020
Russia responded immediately,
evicting diplomats from Britain
284
00:17:43,020 --> 00:17:45,540
and every nation that had
backed Theresa May.
285
00:18:02,820 --> 00:18:05,460
The row over Salisbury helped fuel
286
00:18:05,460 --> 00:18:07,820
the nationalist fervour
Putin was stoking.
287
00:18:12,940 --> 00:18:15,860
In the middle of the crisis,
he cruised to victory
288
00:18:15,860 --> 00:18:19,500
in the Presidential elections,
confirming his status as
289
00:18:19,500 --> 00:18:22,700
the longest-serving
Russian leader since Stalin.
290
00:19:13,900 --> 00:19:15,260
HE CHUCKLES
291
00:19:25,220 --> 00:19:28,100
Discussing priorities
for his new term,
292
00:19:28,100 --> 00:19:31,420
Putin pointed to an issue
that had been simmering for years.
293
00:19:48,020 --> 00:19:51,060
The two leaders agreed that
their respective national
294
00:19:51,060 --> 00:19:54,660
security councils would have
more direct contact,
295
00:19:54,660 --> 00:19:59,380
and so, I thought this was a good
way to talk about arms control,
296
00:19:59,380 --> 00:20:01,100
including the INF Treaty.
297
00:20:03,340 --> 00:20:07,020
President Ronald Reagan and
General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev
298
00:20:07,020 --> 00:20:10,180
signed themselves and their
countries into the history books
299
00:20:10,180 --> 00:20:12,980
today and set their seal on a
treaty that would eliminate
300
00:20:12,980 --> 00:20:17,380
the world's stockpile of land-based
medium-range nuclear weapons.
301
00:20:17,380 --> 00:20:22,300
The INF Treaty, which controlled
Intermediate Nuclear Forces,
302
00:20:22,300 --> 00:20:26,340
marked the end of years of Cold War
tensions over the stationing
303
00:20:26,340 --> 00:20:29,060
of missiles in Europe and the USSR.
304
00:20:33,420 --> 00:20:36,700
But evidence was mounting
that Russia had been developing
305
00:20:36,700 --> 00:20:40,340
new missiles and deploying them
close to the border with Europe.
306
00:20:44,060 --> 00:20:47,900
We considered the Russians to have
been in very serious violation
307
00:20:47,900 --> 00:20:50,340
of it for well over a decade,
308
00:20:50,340 --> 00:20:55,780
and it didn't make any sense at all
to have the US bound by a treaty
309
00:20:55,780 --> 00:20:58,020
that the Russians were not bound by.
310
00:20:58,020 --> 00:20:59,780
That's obviously unacceptable.
311
00:21:01,500 --> 00:21:04,940
The Russians refused
to admit any violation.
312
00:21:04,940 --> 00:21:08,540
Trump's team flew to Moscow to
take it up with Putin.
313
00:21:09,740 --> 00:21:11,300
Here we were on the plane,
314
00:21:11,300 --> 00:21:13,660
and President Trump,
what does he do?
315
00:21:13,660 --> 00:21:15,820
He immediately tells the press,
316
00:21:15,820 --> 00:21:18,020
"Oh, we're going to pull out
of the INF Treaty".
317
00:21:18,020 --> 00:21:21,500
Russia has not adhered to
the agreement, so we are going to
318
00:21:21,500 --> 00:21:24,340
terminate the agreement, and we are
going to develop the weapons.
319
00:21:24,340 --> 00:21:26,580
We're not going to be
the only one to adhere to it.
320
00:21:26,580 --> 00:21:28,020
I think you understand that.
321
00:21:28,020 --> 00:21:29,900
OK? Thank you, thank you, everybody.
322
00:21:31,180 --> 00:21:33,420
It was unexpected, to say the least,
323
00:21:33,420 --> 00:21:36,620
but it was very much
in the Trump mode.
324
00:21:36,620 --> 00:21:37,900
Mr President.
325
00:21:40,980 --> 00:21:43,660
This treaty is dated of '87.
326
00:21:43,660 --> 00:21:45,620
Er, I was much younger
at that time,
327
00:21:45,620 --> 00:21:48,740
but I was part of our team
in negotiating this treaty
328
00:21:48,740 --> 00:21:50,700
in Geneva, with the Americans.
329
00:21:50,700 --> 00:21:55,540
And I think it is one of the best
treaties that we have achieved,
330
00:21:55,540 --> 00:21:57,500
because it is very simple.
331
00:21:57,500 --> 00:22:01,780
Simple in terms of verification,
and of trust to each other.
332
00:22:16,540 --> 00:22:19,780
Putin said, "I thought on
the great seal of the United States,
333
00:22:19,780 --> 00:22:24,060
"the eagle had olive branches
in one of its claws."
334
00:22:29,340 --> 00:22:32,420
Well, thank you Mr President,
it's a pleasure to see you again.
335
00:22:32,420 --> 00:22:34,780
But I didn't bring any more olives.
336
00:22:34,780 --> 00:22:36,660
TRANSLATOR: That's what I thought.
337
00:22:36,660 --> 00:22:38,820
THEY LAUGH
338
00:22:38,820 --> 00:22:42,500
It was clear that the Russians
wanted to keep us in the INF Treaty
339
00:22:42,500 --> 00:22:45,900
while they were basically
developing weapons,
340
00:22:45,900 --> 00:22:49,420
erm, because of their
own broader security concerns.
341
00:22:49,420 --> 00:22:54,580
President Putin said
to Ambassador Bolton, "OK.
342
00:22:54,580 --> 00:22:57,460
"Right, so we won't have
the INF Treaty.
343
00:22:57,460 --> 00:23:00,500
"What's going to happen post-INF?
344
00:23:00,500 --> 00:23:05,980
"How are we going to manage
the intermediate nuclear forces?"
345
00:23:07,180 --> 00:23:11,340
These missiles, they will reach
St Petersburg in 3-4 minutes,
346
00:23:11,340 --> 00:23:14,180
and Moscow, in 7-8 minutes,
or something more, perhaps,
347
00:23:14,180 --> 00:23:16,700
I'm not sure about
the details of it.
348
00:23:16,700 --> 00:23:23,700
So, the risk of danger, of war
will be much, much higher
349
00:23:23,700 --> 00:23:25,260
than without these missiles.
350
00:23:25,260 --> 00:23:28,660
What Putin was mostly concerned
about was what the United States
351
00:23:28,660 --> 00:23:34,140
would do in Europe,
once we had the capability.
352
00:23:34,140 --> 00:23:37,740
As he might have been, except he
was the one who had posed a threat
353
00:23:37,740 --> 00:23:42,220
to begin with by already stationing
noncompliant missiles.
354
00:24:08,740 --> 00:24:12,620
Most of the countries at greatest
risk of Putin's missiles
355
00:24:12,620 --> 00:24:14,060
were members of NATO.
356
00:24:16,020 --> 00:24:18,420
Everyone's attention was riveted.
357
00:24:18,420 --> 00:24:21,660
The Germans, the Dutch,
the Norwegians,
358
00:24:21,660 --> 00:24:23,460
they stepped forward and said,
359
00:24:23,460 --> 00:24:25,820
"Well, hey, is this really
the moment?
360
00:24:25,820 --> 00:24:29,460
"Isn't there more work that
we can do at the diplomatic table?"
361
00:24:31,260 --> 00:24:33,940
The Russians were invited
to a special meeting.
362
00:24:36,940 --> 00:24:39,620
The atmosphere in
the room was very tense.
363
00:24:39,620 --> 00:24:45,860
The INF Treaty was considered to be
a cornerstone of European security.
364
00:24:45,860 --> 00:24:51,340
We explained our concerns,
and that we expected from Russia
365
00:24:51,340 --> 00:24:56,540
to destroy all these systems which
violated the INF Treaty.
366
00:24:56,540 --> 00:25:00,740
Russia was represented by Deputy
Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov.
367
00:25:00,740 --> 00:25:03,420
He was very clear and said,
"The problem is NATO,
368
00:25:03,420 --> 00:25:05,740
"the problem is the US,
but the problem is not Russia."
369
00:25:05,740 --> 00:25:09,700
I said, "Our efforts are sincere
to try to save the INF Treaty,
370
00:25:09,700 --> 00:25:13,020
"and we would very much like
to look for ways to work with you
371
00:25:13,020 --> 00:25:14,820
"in order to resolve this issue."
372
00:25:14,820 --> 00:25:17,340
And he just shook his head
and he said,
373
00:25:17,340 --> 00:25:20,060
"The relationship is going
in the wrong direction,
374
00:25:20,060 --> 00:25:23,100
"and there's no way we can do
problem-solving with NATO."
375
00:25:23,100 --> 00:25:27,660
Strict instructions, I'm sure,
to punch NATO in the nose.
376
00:25:29,980 --> 00:25:33,940
The Americans confirmed
their withdrawal from the Treaty,
377
00:25:33,940 --> 00:25:37,540
undeterred by Putin's threats
of a new Cold War.
378
00:25:54,740 --> 00:25:57,460
Putin already had
the largest stockpile of
379
00:25:57,460 --> 00:25:59,380
nuclear warheads in the world.
380
00:26:03,540 --> 00:26:06,940
And his forces were now deployed
from the Arctic Circle
381
00:26:06,940 --> 00:26:09,260
to the Middle East.
382
00:26:09,260 --> 00:26:11,820
But it was the threat to his
immediate neighbours
383
00:26:11,820 --> 00:26:13,780
that was causing the most concern.
384
00:26:25,740 --> 00:26:29,300
ALL: Tri, dva, odin!
385
00:26:33,500 --> 00:26:38,380
That year, a former comedy actor
was elected in Ukraine.
386
00:26:38,380 --> 00:26:43,020
Volodymyr Zelensky had to decide how
to deal with the ongoing conflict
387
00:26:43,020 --> 00:26:44,580
in the east of his country.
388
00:27:26,420 --> 00:27:28,940
To end the fighting in Donbas,
389
00:27:28,940 --> 00:27:32,460
Zelensky wanted to renegotiate
a deal his predecessor had agreed
390
00:27:32,460 --> 00:27:34,300
with Putin four years earlier.
391
00:27:36,340 --> 00:27:40,020
The Minsk Agreement had been signed
as Russian-backed forces threatened
392
00:27:40,020 --> 00:27:42,380
to overwhelm Ukraine's army.
393
00:27:42,380 --> 00:27:45,380
But the ceasefire it promised
had never held.
394
00:27:56,180 --> 00:28:00,100
Six months after taking office,
Zelensky got his chance to
395
00:28:00,100 --> 00:28:04,060
confront Putin at a summit hosted
by the French President.
396
00:28:09,260 --> 00:28:11,940
It was a very tense meeting.
397
00:28:11,940 --> 00:28:14,020
It was the first meeting
of the presidents.
398
00:28:15,380 --> 00:28:18,380
President Macron,
he was trying to, sort of,
399
00:28:18,380 --> 00:28:20,980
make acquaintance for everybody.
400
00:28:20,980 --> 00:28:24,180
Erm, he promised that it will be
a good dinner, French-style,
401
00:28:24,180 --> 00:28:27,620
with a good wine afterwards,
probably been pushing us not
402
00:28:27,620 --> 00:28:29,500
to have a very long conversation.
403
00:28:52,900 --> 00:28:56,500
Minsk Agreements, they are
absolutely clear that Donbas
404
00:28:56,500 --> 00:28:59,260
will remain part of Ukraine,
405
00:28:59,260 --> 00:29:01,940
but with special status
and possibilities.
406
00:29:01,940 --> 00:29:06,180
Having its own militia, having
special relationship with Russia,
407
00:29:06,180 --> 00:29:09,860
er, speaking Russian language
without any interference.
408
00:29:25,300 --> 00:29:29,300
Under the Minsk deal, elections
were due to be held in Donbas -
409
00:29:29,300 --> 00:29:32,900
despite the Russian-backed
separatists remaining in control.
410
00:30:02,780 --> 00:30:06,820
We were trying to get the Russian
tanks out of our territory,
411
00:30:06,820 --> 00:30:09,300
which Putin himself
personally said, "No".
412
00:30:09,300 --> 00:30:11,540
He slammed the table,
413
00:30:11,540 --> 00:30:15,420
and he used a couple of words
which I markedly remembered.
414
00:30:15,420 --> 00:30:17,620
And he was quite upset with,
you know,
415
00:30:17,620 --> 00:30:19,740
the way the discussion was going.
416
00:30:19,740 --> 00:30:22,460
The problem is, he was promised
by his own people that
417
00:30:22,460 --> 00:30:24,980
President Zelensky would be
eager to accommodate.
418
00:30:24,980 --> 00:30:26,580
And it was not happening.
419
00:31:32,660 --> 00:31:34,900
I was thinking,
"Jesus, I've seen it before.
420
00:31:34,900 --> 00:31:36,620
"It's going to nowhere."
421
00:31:36,620 --> 00:31:38,900
I remember I was telling
President Zelensky,
422
00:31:38,900 --> 00:31:40,380
"You can't bargain with him.
423
00:31:40,380 --> 00:31:42,420
"Putin does not need
anything from us.
424
00:31:42,420 --> 00:31:45,700
"There is no river,
no building or city, or -
425
00:31:45,700 --> 00:31:47,380
"he wants us not to exist."
426
00:31:47,380 --> 00:31:49,140
CHEERING
427
00:31:51,740 --> 00:31:54,020
For all Zelensky's efforts,
428
00:31:54,020 --> 00:31:55,940
there were no further meetings
429
00:31:55,940 --> 00:31:59,220
between the two presidents in
the year that followed.
430
00:31:59,220 --> 00:32:02,900
Instead, Putin celebrated
the seventh anniversary of
431
00:32:02,900 --> 00:32:04,420
his capture of Crimea.
432
00:32:17,660 --> 00:32:20,580
CHEERING
433
00:32:29,900 --> 00:32:33,660
CHEERING CONTINUES
434
00:32:50,980 --> 00:32:54,940
That spring, after NATO had
conducted its largest military drill
435
00:32:54,940 --> 00:32:56,740
in Europe for decades,
436
00:32:56,740 --> 00:33:00,820
Putin announced a huge training
exercise on Ukraine's border.
437
00:33:42,340 --> 00:33:46,540
For years, Ukraine had been
trying to join NATO.
438
00:33:46,540 --> 00:33:49,980
But progress had been stymied by
countries including France
439
00:33:49,980 --> 00:33:53,140
and Germany, who were worried
the move could antagonise Russia.
440
00:33:55,780 --> 00:34:00,100
Zelensky stepped up his efforts to
win over NATO'S Secretary General,
441
00:34:00,100 --> 00:34:01,740
Jens Stoltenberg.
442
00:34:22,100 --> 00:34:24,100
I had to tell him the reality,
443
00:34:24,100 --> 00:34:27,580
and that is that to make
decisions on membership,
444
00:34:27,580 --> 00:34:30,300
to invite a country
to become a member of NATO,
445
00:34:30,300 --> 00:34:33,980
we need consensus, we need
all allies to agree.
446
00:34:33,980 --> 00:34:37,540
And there was no consensus in NATO.
447
00:34:55,900 --> 00:35:00,420
I suggested that we should focus
providing political
448
00:35:00,420 --> 00:35:02,300
and practical support.
449
00:35:02,300 --> 00:35:06,220
The best way to increase the
security of Ukraine was to actually
450
00:35:06,220 --> 00:35:08,740
support them and enable them
to defend themselves.
451
00:35:13,740 --> 00:35:17,220
Putin soon announced the official
end to the military exercise.
452
00:35:19,180 --> 00:35:22,100
But tens of thousands
of troops and heavy armaments
453
00:35:22,100 --> 00:35:23,540
remained on the border.
454
00:35:26,380 --> 00:35:30,460
For me, it was the beginning of
something that was very worrying.
455
00:35:30,460 --> 00:35:33,820
I felt very strongly -
we need to help Ukraine,
456
00:35:33,820 --> 00:35:35,780
we need to help them
defend themselves,
457
00:35:35,780 --> 00:35:37,180
we need to give them hope.
458
00:35:37,180 --> 00:35:40,540
So, I wrote to the Prime Minister
at a very high classification.
459
00:35:40,540 --> 00:35:46,900
Ben Wallace came to me and -
with a letter, secret letter.
460
00:35:46,900 --> 00:35:51,380
And it was basically making
the case for us stepping up
461
00:35:51,380 --> 00:35:54,100
our military support for Ukraine.
462
00:35:54,100 --> 00:35:59,420
And what I said to Ben was,
"Look, let's do this.
463
00:35:59,420 --> 00:36:01,900
"Let's keep in step with
the Americans as far as we can."
464
00:36:01,900 --> 00:36:05,340
Now, the Americans were already,
I think, providing Javelins
465
00:36:05,340 --> 00:36:08,940
and other kit, so we went
for the NLAWs, the famous
466
00:36:08,940 --> 00:36:12,940
Belfast-made anti-tank weapon.
467
00:36:15,620 --> 00:36:19,020
In America, a new President
had taken office.
468
00:36:20,660 --> 00:36:24,700
Joe Biden had spent years dealing
with Putin as Vice President,
469
00:36:24,700 --> 00:36:27,260
and there were high hopes
for their first summit.
470
00:36:32,580 --> 00:36:36,060
There had been this sense of
build-up in the media here
471
00:36:36,060 --> 00:36:38,380
in the United States, in Europe,
472
00:36:38,380 --> 00:36:41,420
that it was, sort of, a return
to the Cold War days, in terms of
473
00:36:41,420 --> 00:36:43,300
the superpower showdown.
474
00:36:49,180 --> 00:36:53,780
They talked very forthrightly about
areas where we disagreed.
475
00:36:53,780 --> 00:36:59,380
And Putin made very clear
his belief that Ukraine should be
476
00:36:59,380 --> 00:37:00,860
subjugated under Russia,
477
00:37:00,860 --> 00:37:04,180
and that's something we
fundamentally disagreed with.
478
00:37:04,180 --> 00:37:07,940
But there's a sense that
we needed to put guard rails around
479
00:37:07,940 --> 00:37:09,780
our relationship with Russia,
480
00:37:09,780 --> 00:37:12,180
so we did not end up into
an unintended conflict.
481
00:37:15,780 --> 00:37:20,300
I think that the last thing
he wants now is a Cold War.
482
00:37:20,300 --> 00:37:23,300
As I said to him,
"This is not a 'kumbaya' moment,
483
00:37:23,300 --> 00:37:26,180
"as you used to say back
in the '60s, in the United States,
484
00:37:26,180 --> 00:37:28,220
"like, 'Let's hug and
love each other.'
485
00:37:28,220 --> 00:37:30,700
"But it's clearly not in
anybody's interest -
486
00:37:30,700 --> 00:37:33,020
"your country's or mine -
487
00:37:33,020 --> 00:37:36,740
"for us to be in a situation where
we're in a new Cold War."
488
00:37:36,740 --> 00:37:39,260
And I truly believe he thinks that.
489
00:37:44,700 --> 00:37:46,780
Biden's hopes were short-lived.
490
00:37:48,100 --> 00:37:51,900
Within months, as the West
was reeling from America's chaotic
491
00:37:51,900 --> 00:37:53,700
withdrawal from Afghanistan,
492
00:37:53,700 --> 00:37:57,500
Putin's generals put on a display
of Russia's military might.
493
00:38:00,660 --> 00:38:05,140
US intelligence was also picking up
even more worrying reports.
494
00:38:07,620 --> 00:38:12,100
I had watched Putin increasingly
stewing in a combustible combination
495
00:38:12,100 --> 00:38:14,140
of grievance and ambition.
496
00:38:14,140 --> 00:38:17,780
We had begun to put together
a pretty clear and pretty
497
00:38:17,780 --> 00:38:22,300
troubling picture
of Russian military planning.
498
00:38:22,300 --> 00:38:26,260
I had come to believe that
President Putin was quite serious
499
00:38:26,260 --> 00:38:29,180
about launching a major new
invasion of Ukraine.
500
00:38:32,220 --> 00:38:36,220
Biden dispatched Burns to Moscow
to confront Putin directly.
501
00:38:37,620 --> 00:38:40,780
The Covid pandemic
was sweeping through Russia.
502
00:38:42,660 --> 00:38:46,260
Moscow, in particular, was in the
midst of one of the worst waves of
503
00:38:46,260 --> 00:38:48,820
Covid that Russia had experienced.
504
00:38:50,620 --> 00:38:53,700
President Putin had isolated
himself in Sochi.
505
00:38:53,700 --> 00:38:57,540
And so, my conversation with him
was actually over a secure phone
506
00:38:57,540 --> 00:39:00,260
from an office in the Kremlin.
507
00:39:00,260 --> 00:39:04,540
I was very direct in laying out
the message that President Biden
508
00:39:04,540 --> 00:39:06,220
had asked me to convey -
509
00:39:06,220 --> 00:39:09,900
that we know what he's up to,
and to tell him that he's going
510
00:39:09,900 --> 00:39:13,020
to pay a heavy price if
he launches such an invasion.
511
00:39:13,020 --> 00:39:17,420
Erm, President Putin listened
to all this with no effort to deny
512
00:39:17,420 --> 00:39:19,780
that this planning was under way.
513
00:39:19,780 --> 00:39:24,620
He had a list of grievances
about Ukraine and about the West,
514
00:39:24,620 --> 00:39:27,020
and the ways in which he felt
the Western leaders,
515
00:39:27,020 --> 00:39:28,580
including the United States,
516
00:39:28,580 --> 00:39:32,540
hadn't paid attention to
Russia's concerns over the years.
517
00:39:32,540 --> 00:39:35,300
I was troubled before
I arrived in Moscow.
518
00:39:35,300 --> 00:39:37,900
And I was even more
troubled after I left.
519
00:39:43,100 --> 00:39:46,420
NATO ministers gathered
to decide what to do about
520
00:39:46,420 --> 00:39:47,780
the new intelligence.
521
00:39:50,020 --> 00:39:52,780
Zelensky sent
his new Foreign Minister.
522
00:40:16,300 --> 00:40:19,140
The stronger we are,
the less tempting it will be
523
00:40:19,140 --> 00:40:20,460
for Russia to move forward.
524
00:40:27,740 --> 00:40:30,580
We'd been informed that the
worst-case scenario
525
00:40:30,580 --> 00:40:32,740
is very likely to happen.
526
00:40:32,740 --> 00:40:38,540
That Russia has an intention
to attack Ukraine, and will use
527
00:40:38,540 --> 00:40:41,420
everything in its power
to occupy the whole country.
528
00:40:41,420 --> 00:40:46,620
And I can probably say that many
people were truly shocked.
529
00:40:46,620 --> 00:40:50,660
All allies agree that it was
a significant military build-up,
530
00:40:50,660 --> 00:40:55,300
but there were differences on how
to interpret those facts.
531
00:40:55,300 --> 00:40:59,300
And to what extent was this just
a demonstration of power,
532
00:40:59,300 --> 00:41:01,180
an attempt to coerce Ukraine?
533
00:41:02,220 --> 00:41:06,500
There were a number of
colleagues who were not convinced.
534
00:41:06,500 --> 00:41:09,820
And they would ask, you know,
myself and other Baltic colleagues,
535
00:41:09,820 --> 00:41:13,060
like, you know, "Do you really
believe that this is possible?"
536
00:41:13,060 --> 00:41:16,900
That a full-scale invasion
of a country of 40 million people,
537
00:41:16,900 --> 00:41:18,980
it's truly incomprehensible.
538
00:41:18,980 --> 00:41:22,100
I said to the Allies, that,
"OK, maybe you have a bit different
539
00:41:22,100 --> 00:41:26,220
"assessments of the likelihood
of a full-scale invasion.
540
00:41:26,220 --> 00:41:29,500
"But in one way, it doesn't matter,
because regardless of whether
541
00:41:29,500 --> 00:41:31,780
"the likelihood is 80% or 20%,
542
00:41:31,780 --> 00:41:33,620
"we need to be prepared
for the worst."
543
00:41:43,220 --> 00:41:45,180
As the summit wrapped up,
544
00:41:45,180 --> 00:41:49,060
Putin addressed a new intake
of ambassadors to Moscow.
545
00:41:49,060 --> 00:41:52,020
His words were aimed firmly at NATO.
546
00:42:17,220 --> 00:42:20,060
I talked to him after his
big pronouncement.
547
00:42:20,060 --> 00:42:23,780
And so, you know, I begin with
a long preamble about how
548
00:42:23,780 --> 00:42:26,660
our two countries have fought
together against fascism,
549
00:42:26,660 --> 00:42:30,060
how they were integral to
the defeat of Nazism.
550
00:42:30,060 --> 00:42:33,780
And, you know, he liked all that,
he bought all that.
551
00:42:33,780 --> 00:42:35,460
But then, he kept saying,
552
00:42:35,460 --> 00:42:38,860
"You must rule out any
NATO membership for Ukraine".
553
00:42:38,860 --> 00:42:41,900
I said "Well, we can't rule out
NATO membership.
554
00:42:41,900 --> 00:42:43,340
"It's a free country."
555
00:42:43,340 --> 00:42:47,060
It was pretty alarming, you know,
he wasn't moving at all.
556
00:42:47,060 --> 00:42:50,420
And during 20 years since
the first enlargement of NATO,
557
00:42:50,420 --> 00:42:53,340
we have heard that there will be
no further enlargements.
558
00:42:53,340 --> 00:42:56,660
And we have got seven waves
of enlargement.
559
00:42:56,660 --> 00:43:01,420
And it was on the verge of
Ukraine applying to NATO.
560
00:43:01,420 --> 00:43:04,860
CHANTING IN RUSSIAN
561
00:43:04,860 --> 00:43:08,860
For Putin, if Ukraine strengthened
its ties with the West,
562
00:43:08,860 --> 00:43:12,260
an ancient bond would be destroyed.
563
00:43:12,260 --> 00:43:16,860
He'd recently used a 5,000-word
polemic to glorify the historic ties
564
00:43:16,860 --> 00:43:18,860
between the two countries -
565
00:43:18,860 --> 00:43:22,180
from the Orthodox Church
to the ancient Russian language.
566
00:43:23,860 --> 00:43:28,340
This is a president who is now
really evoking an ethnic nationalism
567
00:43:28,340 --> 00:43:31,020
we haven't seen in Europe,
really, since the war,
568
00:43:31,020 --> 00:43:33,140
potentially, in the Balkans.
569
00:43:33,140 --> 00:43:36,380
But also, a man who was thinking
like a politician about legacy.
570
00:43:36,380 --> 00:43:38,620
This is not about NATO and
all the red herrings
571
00:43:38,620 --> 00:43:40,180
that he was throwing out.
572
00:43:40,180 --> 00:43:47,460
The issue for Putin was his project
to rebuild the Soviet empire.
573
00:43:47,460 --> 00:43:52,980
His project to reintegrate
what he regarded as the
574
00:43:52,980 --> 00:43:55,860
spiritual heartland
of Mother Russia.
575
00:44:03,940 --> 00:44:07,940
As the West frantically looked
for a diplomatic way out,
576
00:44:07,940 --> 00:44:09,980
NATO'S Secretary General
577
00:44:09,980 --> 00:44:12,500
convinced the Russians
to attend a crisis meeting.
578
00:44:15,420 --> 00:44:20,380
It was absolutely clear that
the purpose of the Russian military
579
00:44:20,380 --> 00:44:23,140
build-up was to invade Ukraine.
580
00:44:23,140 --> 00:44:27,300
But of course, plans can be changed,
it's never too late to step back.
581
00:44:29,300 --> 00:44:32,980
There had not been a NATO-Russia
council
582
00:44:32,980 --> 00:44:38,700
since 2019, the main reason
being...
583
00:44:38,700 --> 00:44:44,220
..Russia's claim that we should
not be discussing Ukraine -
584
00:44:44,220 --> 00:44:47,580
while, of course, Ukraine
was an obvious subject for
585
00:44:47,580 --> 00:44:50,220
any dialogue with Russia.
586
00:44:50,220 --> 00:44:52,740
We met in this room,
Russia was sitting down there.
587
00:44:54,620 --> 00:44:57,340
The Russian delegation shared
with us some maps.
588
00:44:57,340 --> 00:45:03,740
And those maps were not depicting
NATO territory in the correct way.
589
00:45:03,740 --> 00:45:07,500
Turkey, Greece, Denmark, Norway,
590
00:45:07,500 --> 00:45:12,180
and other countries were not part of
NATO, according to the Russian maps.
591
00:45:12,180 --> 00:45:15,980
That prompted comments
by some allies that,
592
00:45:15,980 --> 00:45:19,540
"Hey, part of my territory
is just not on the map."
593
00:45:19,540 --> 00:45:20,980
So, that's the...
594
00:45:20,980 --> 00:45:23,540
SHE SPEAKS IN FRENCH
595
00:45:25,660 --> 00:45:28,820
Deputy Foreign Minister
Grushko represented Russia,
596
00:45:28,820 --> 00:45:31,500
he presented a set of proposals.
597
00:45:31,500 --> 00:45:35,180
One was to ensure
no further NATO enlargement.
598
00:45:35,180 --> 00:45:40,220
The other proposal from Russia was
that NATO should accept to remove
599
00:45:40,220 --> 00:45:42,900
all its troops
and infrastructure from
600
00:45:42,900 --> 00:45:45,260
the eastern part of the alliance.
601
00:45:45,260 --> 00:45:48,900
And I said, "We can discuss arms
control, but we cannot discuss
602
00:45:48,900 --> 00:45:55,140
"a proposal of Russia that will
ban any NATO enlargement."
603
00:45:55,140 --> 00:45:58,420
This is not NATO
aggressively moving east -
604
00:45:58,420 --> 00:46:02,300
this is east and central Europe
wanting, by their own choice,
605
00:46:02,300 --> 00:46:05,300
to be part of NATO.
606
00:46:05,300 --> 00:46:07,100
And it's not an aggressive action,
607
00:46:07,100 --> 00:46:10,020
it's a defensive alliance
defending new members.
608
00:46:29,900 --> 00:46:33,820
I felt the meeting had not gone
as well as we hoped for.
609
00:46:33,820 --> 00:46:37,940
There were no real indications from
the Russian side that they really
610
00:46:37,940 --> 00:46:41,500
wanted to sit down and engage
in a real effort to find
611
00:46:41,500 --> 00:46:42,900
a diplomatic resolution.
612
00:46:53,660 --> 00:46:55,500
With options running out,
613
00:46:55,500 --> 00:46:57,980
Western leaders held a
video conference.
614
00:47:00,420 --> 00:47:04,260
We had one thing that
we could threaten Putin with,
615
00:47:04,260 --> 00:47:07,060
in addition to military
support for Ukraine,
616
00:47:07,060 --> 00:47:08,740
was a package of sanctions.
617
00:47:08,740 --> 00:47:11,100
They had to be absolutely
knockout sanctions.
618
00:47:11,100 --> 00:47:15,860
The problem with that was
hydrocarbons, oil and gas.
619
00:47:15,860 --> 00:47:18,620
And, you know, there was
a difference of opinions
620
00:47:18,620 --> 00:47:20,900
around the table.
621
00:47:20,900 --> 00:47:24,140
An argument that was deployed
particularly by our German friends
622
00:47:24,140 --> 00:47:25,940
was that when it came to sanctions,
623
00:47:25,940 --> 00:47:28,460
you needed creative ambiguity.
624
00:47:28,460 --> 00:47:31,660
I didn't understand that myself,
I've got to be totally honest,
625
00:47:31,660 --> 00:47:36,140
I thought, "Just tell them you'll
cut off Russian oil and gas.
626
00:47:36,140 --> 00:47:38,820
"We're going to sanction every
single one of your oligarchs.
627
00:47:38,820 --> 00:47:40,820
"We're going to impound
your yachts."
628
00:47:40,820 --> 00:47:44,820
And I thought I'd carried
everybody with me,
629
00:47:44,820 --> 00:47:51,060
and Mario Draghi said,
"Look, I'm sorry.
630
00:47:51,060 --> 00:47:55,180
"As Italy, I just have to say
that we cannot do this.
631
00:47:55,180 --> 00:47:58,740
"We cannot dispense with
Russian oil and gas."
632
00:48:06,820 --> 00:48:09,980
In January, Putin attended
the annual memorial
633
00:48:09,980 --> 00:48:11,900
to mark the siege of Leningrad.
634
00:48:13,420 --> 00:48:17,220
Publicly, he continued to maintain
that Russia had no plans
635
00:48:17,220 --> 00:48:18,620
to invade Ukraine.
636
00:48:24,940 --> 00:48:28,060
But a steady stream of Russian
battalions was heading
637
00:48:28,060 --> 00:48:29,420
to the border.
638
00:48:31,220 --> 00:48:35,780
We were seeing increasingly
detailed confirmation about
639
00:48:35,780 --> 00:48:40,700
Russian planning for invasion,
and also about the precision of
640
00:48:40,700 --> 00:48:43,900
their planning for the
political day after, as well.
641
00:48:43,900 --> 00:48:47,060
I arrived in Kyiv and met
with President Zelensky
642
00:48:47,060 --> 00:48:50,300
in his offices, in downtown Kyiv.
643
00:48:51,900 --> 00:48:54,100
President Biden had asked me
to share with him
644
00:48:54,100 --> 00:48:56,580
our most updated intelligence.
645
00:48:56,580 --> 00:48:59,500
Their plan was for
a lightning strike, erm,
646
00:48:59,500 --> 00:49:02,980
from Belarus south into Kyiv itself.
647
00:49:02,980 --> 00:49:06,860
It'd decapitate
the Ukrainian leadership
648
00:49:06,860 --> 00:49:08,900
and install a puppet regime.
649
00:50:09,980 --> 00:50:14,300
I fly into Kyiv, and it's very weird
650
00:50:14,300 --> 00:50:17,340
because the city
is still buzzing.
651
00:50:17,340 --> 00:50:21,420
Volodymyr Zelensky and I had
a long dinner and, you know,
652
00:50:21,420 --> 00:50:24,260
we tried to get to the bottom
of what their strategy was.
653
00:50:24,260 --> 00:50:26,460
And we couldn't get
much out of them.
654
00:50:26,460 --> 00:50:29,660
We should develop our economic
partnership... Yeah.
655
00:50:29,660 --> 00:50:31,540
Talking to our ambassador,
656
00:50:31,540 --> 00:50:36,980
she and I both thought that Zelensky
thought that Putin was bluffing.
657
00:50:36,980 --> 00:50:40,260
But I think we misunderstood
what Zelensky was doing.
658
00:50:40,260 --> 00:50:43,540
If he stood up in a press
conference with me and said,
659
00:50:43,540 --> 00:50:47,020
"Russia is about to invade our
country, Boris Johnson said so,"
660
00:50:47,020 --> 00:50:48,620
it's a disaster.
661
00:50:48,620 --> 00:50:53,300
What happens? Economic meltdown.
662
00:50:53,300 --> 00:50:57,940
Plus, everybody who is remotely
vulnerable to a Russian attack
663
00:50:57,940 --> 00:50:59,820
is going to scarper.
664
00:51:21,100 --> 00:51:24,900
I get back from Kyiv,
and the following day...
665
00:51:24,900 --> 00:51:27,220
..I've got Putin on the blower
again.
666
00:51:27,220 --> 00:51:32,700
And this is a very long call,
and a most extraordinary call.
667
00:51:32,700 --> 00:51:35,100
He was being very, very familiar.
668
00:51:35,100 --> 00:51:38,260
I said to him,
"Look, if you do this,
669
00:51:38,260 --> 00:51:40,980
"it will be an utter catastrophe.
670
00:51:40,980 --> 00:51:45,220
"It will mean a massive package
of Western sanctions.
671
00:51:45,220 --> 00:51:53,060
"It will mean we continue to
intensify our support for Ukraine.
672
00:51:53,060 --> 00:51:57,940
"And it will mean more NATO,
not less NATO, on your borders."
673
00:51:57,940 --> 00:52:00,500
And he said, "You say..."
674
00:52:00,500 --> 00:52:05,380
He said, "Boris, you say that
Ukraine is not going
675
00:52:05,380 --> 00:52:07,820
"to join NATO any time soon,"
676
00:52:07,820 --> 00:52:09,620
he said in English, "any time soon.
677
00:52:09,620 --> 00:52:11,060
"What is any time soon?"
678
00:52:11,060 --> 00:52:15,220
And I said, "Well,
it's not going to join NATO for
679
00:52:15,220 --> 00:52:16,860
"the foreseeable future.
680
00:52:16,860 --> 00:52:19,460
"You know that perfectly well."
681
00:52:19,460 --> 00:52:22,500
It fundamentally wasn't about...
682
00:52:22,500 --> 00:52:25,940
He, sort of, threatened me
at one point and said, you know,
683
00:52:25,940 --> 00:52:28,540
"Boris, I don't want to hurt you,
but with a missile,
684
00:52:28,540 --> 00:52:32,380
"it would only take a minute,"
or something like that, you know?
685
00:52:32,380 --> 00:52:34,340
You know, jolly.
686
00:52:34,340 --> 00:52:42,340
But I think from the very
relaxed tone that he was taking,
687
00:52:42,340 --> 00:52:47,260
the, sort of, air of detachment
that he seemed to have,
688
00:52:47,260 --> 00:52:52,140
he was just playing along with
my attempts to get him to negotiate.
689
00:52:56,820 --> 00:53:00,260
Three days later, Putin was
guest of honour at the opening
690
00:53:00,260 --> 00:53:02,020
ceremony of the Winter Olympics.
691
00:53:03,420 --> 00:53:09,140
There, the Chinese leader joined
him in opposing NATO expansion,
692
00:53:09,140 --> 00:53:13,020
as the two men said there were
"no limits" to the bond
693
00:53:13,020 --> 00:53:14,380
between their countries.
694
00:53:16,700 --> 00:53:21,580
It sent a very strong message
that China now is actually, er,
695
00:53:21,580 --> 00:53:26,460
an even closer partner,
supporter of Russia,
696
00:53:26,460 --> 00:53:32,300
this statement just underlined
the importance of standing up for
697
00:53:32,300 --> 00:53:36,260
the principle of every nation has
the right to choose its own path.
698
00:53:37,980 --> 00:53:41,180
The following week,
Britain's Defence Minister
699
00:53:41,180 --> 00:53:45,340
set off on a last-ditch
mission to avoid war.
700
00:53:45,340 --> 00:53:50,780
We landed at Moscow, we all had
to be tested for Covid.
701
00:53:50,780 --> 00:53:54,020
Remarkably, our interpreter
failed her test,
702
00:53:54,020 --> 00:53:56,260
even though she seemed
to have passed on the plane.
703
00:53:56,260 --> 00:53:57,300
But you know!
704
00:54:04,820 --> 00:54:08,500
We were greeted by Minister Shoigu,
the Minister of Defence,
705
00:54:08,500 --> 00:54:11,980
and the Chief of the General Staff,
Gerazimov, a very powerful figure
706
00:54:11,980 --> 00:54:14,780
in the Russian military,
very close to President Putin.
707
00:54:15,860 --> 00:54:19,740
I took deliberately
my Chief of Defence Staff,
708
00:54:19,740 --> 00:54:23,140
but I also took my commander
of the field army with me.
709
00:54:23,140 --> 00:54:26,140
It was important to signal
to the Russians that, you know,
710
00:54:26,140 --> 00:54:29,260
if you do these things, the people
who will be dealing with that
711
00:54:29,260 --> 00:54:31,820
response are sitting in this room.
712
00:54:31,820 --> 00:54:33,700
Thank you, Minister Shoigu,
713
00:54:33,700 --> 00:54:38,300
and thank you for agreeing
to meet at this time.
714
00:54:38,300 --> 00:54:46,500
A time none of us wish to be in
an atmosphere of insecurity,
715
00:54:46,500 --> 00:54:50,660
anxiousness, and indeed,
instability.
716
00:54:50,660 --> 00:54:52,460
It benefits neither of us.
717
00:54:52,460 --> 00:54:55,060
So, the assumptions that
they had made were -
718
00:54:55,060 --> 00:54:57,660
the Ukrainians won't fight,
719
00:54:57,660 --> 00:55:01,580
the Russian armed forces are
close to invincible,
720
00:55:01,580 --> 00:55:05,820
that the international community
will fracture, and in fact,
721
00:55:05,820 --> 00:55:07,780
that the Ukrainians
will welcome them.
722
00:55:07,780 --> 00:55:11,140
And I remember saying to Minister
Shoigu that they will fight,
723
00:55:11,140 --> 00:55:15,420
and he said, "My mother is
Ukrainian, they won't!"
724
00:55:15,420 --> 00:55:17,940
He also said he had
no intention of invading.
725
00:55:17,940 --> 00:55:22,780
That would be "vranyo" in
the Russian language.
726
00:55:22,780 --> 00:55:24,580
Vranyo, I think, is a, sort of,
727
00:55:24,580 --> 00:55:26,980
demonstration of bullying
or strength, which is,
728
00:55:26,980 --> 00:55:30,060
"I'm going to lie to you.
You know I'm lying.
729
00:55:30,060 --> 00:55:33,060
"I know you know I'm lying,
and I'm still going to lie to you."
730
00:55:34,380 --> 00:55:35,460
He knew.
731
00:55:35,460 --> 00:55:37,580
He knew I knew, and I knew he knew.
732
00:55:37,580 --> 00:55:39,940
But I think it was about saying,
733
00:55:39,940 --> 00:55:41,260
"I'm powerful".
734
00:55:42,820 --> 00:55:47,700
It was the fairly chilling,
but direct lie of what they were
735
00:55:47,700 --> 00:55:52,540
not going to do, er,
that I think to me confirmed
736
00:55:52,540 --> 00:55:53,700
they were going to do it.
737
00:55:55,100 --> 00:55:59,300
I remember as we were walking out,
General Gerasimov said,
738
00:55:59,300 --> 00:56:02,580
"Never again will we be humiliated.
739
00:56:02,580 --> 00:56:06,380
"We used to be the fourth army in
the world, we're now number two.
740
00:56:06,380 --> 00:56:09,060
"It's now America and us."
741
00:56:09,060 --> 00:56:16,180
And there, in that minute,
was that sense of potentially why.
742
00:58:03,420 --> 00:58:05,820
I take the call in
the office in Number Ten.
743
00:58:05,820 --> 00:58:08,220
And Zelensky's very, very calm.
744
00:58:08,220 --> 00:58:11,380
But he tells me, you know,
they're attacking everywhere.
745
00:58:11,380 --> 00:58:12,980
"The tanks are coming in everywhere,
746
00:58:12,980 --> 00:58:16,020
"we're doing our best, but it's,
you know, they're huge numbers" -
747
00:58:16,020 --> 00:58:18,180
and it just sounds appalling.
748
00:58:18,180 --> 00:58:22,260
But I say that, you know...
749
00:58:22,260 --> 00:58:24,580
.."For God's sake, find a way
of looking after yourself.
750
00:58:24,580 --> 00:58:27,660
"And, you know, if there's anything
we can do to help you find
751
00:58:27,660 --> 00:58:31,220
"somewhere to be safe,
then we want to do it." And...
752
00:58:31,220 --> 00:58:33,020
..he doesn't take me up
on that offer.
753
00:58:33,020 --> 00:58:35,500
And, you know, he heroically
stayed where he was.
64678
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