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If we compare the current situation underĀ
Avdiivka and in the second hot spot - Kupiansk,Ā Ā
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then for the Ukrainian armed forces, it'sĀ
hotter under Avdiivka right now. In Kupiansk,Ā Ā
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of course, there is also seriousĀ
pressure from the Russian occupants,Ā Ā
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but there are certain risk zones in Avdiivka, andĀ
these risks are much greater than in Kupiansk.
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It is impossible to just take and understandĀ
Russia's tasks near Avdiivka. I do not seeĀ Ā
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any expediency, let alone strategicĀ
and tactical significance. They areĀ Ā
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trying to justify it somehow by sayingĀ
that by capturing Avdiivka they willĀ Ā
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secure Donetsk. But Avdiivka sinceĀ
2014 was in the form in which it is.
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Yes, Avdiivka is a convenient springboardĀ
for the liberation of Donetsk. But thereĀ Ā
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will be no de-occupation of Donetsk in theĀ
short or even medium term. First there willĀ Ā
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be liberation of the Zaporizhzhya region andĀ
the left bank of the Kherson region. I alsoĀ Ā
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do not rule out that the Crimean peninsulaĀ
will be liberated earlier than Donetsk. ItĀ Ā
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was not a priority task for the AFU for theĀ
enemy to decide to send such resources there.Ā Ā
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And I think this is a political move.Ā
To show that they can do something else,Ā Ā
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that they are capable of doing something,Ā
that they have some definite opportunitiesĀ Ā
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to attack and seize new territories. ThereĀ
was no other expediency to these actions.
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We can consider now the mainland southĀ
of Ukraine as two separate bridgeheads,Ā Ā
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the Zaporizhzhya region and the left-bankĀ
Kherson region. And if we are talking aboutĀ Ā
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the Zaporizhzhya region, the wedge inĀ
the direction of Tokmak remains theĀ Ā
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main zone of influence and advancementĀ
of the forces of liberation of Ukraine.
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Yes, it seems to be going slowly. But as theĀ
Ukrainian stormtroopers rightly say, "If anyoneĀ Ā
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thinks it can be done faster, welcome to ourĀ
trenches. Show us how it can be done faster."
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The fact is that Zaporizhzhya region, namely theĀ
Novoprokopivka-Verbove-Ocheretuvate triangle isĀ Ā
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now maximally filled with human resources,Ā
but there is a small nuance. It consists ofĀ Ā
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returning some units to the left bank of theĀ
Kherson region from the Zaporizhzhya region,Ā Ā
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which were previously deployedĀ
there to strengthen the defense.
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Why and for what purpose is all this happening?Ā
Because the Russian command has a very unclearĀ Ā
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situation on the left bank. The gray zone, whichĀ
had been forming for almost a year following theĀ Ā
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liberation of the right bank of the KhersonĀ
region, is expanding. It is impossible forĀ Ā
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the Russians to stop or freeze it and they feelĀ
seriously threatened by it. That is why they areĀ Ā
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forced to weaken their Zaporizhzhya bridgehead toĀ
some extent in order to strengthen the left bank.
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On the left bank of Kherson, something happensĀ Ā
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that is not worth talking about tooĀ
much. It takes silence and time...
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Yes, there are small successes. Yes, there areĀ
small movements in general in that direction.Ā Ā
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But they are given at a very high cost, andĀ
then generously watered with enemy bombs,Ā Ā
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missiles, artillery and fpv drones. So farĀ
there is no equipment there, only personnel.
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At some point a second southern front will openĀ
there, but right now the situation is measuredĀ Ā
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in minimal tactical successes. Therefore, we'llĀ
talk more later to avoid causing harm right now.
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