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The Russian occupation forces have gone on
the offensive in many parts of the front.
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It seems that Russia simply has an endless
human resource with which it can parry any
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offensive by the Ukrainian defense
forces. But is this really the case?
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Enemy casualties almost crossed the
300,000 mark. And the total number of
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"partially mobilized" through September 2023
was about 550,000 people. But is this number
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sufficient and does it effectively
solve the tasks set for the enemy?
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It would seem that this number fully covers
the losses, but when we talk about losses,
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we primarily mean liquidated
and wounded, prisoners,
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deserters and refuseniks. But practically no
one takes into account several existing needs.
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The first need is compensation for
losses in order to restore the combat
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effectiveness of units after incomparable
losses in the performance of combat tasks.
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The second need voiced by the Russian side is the
creation of new units in the rear, which in the
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short term should not be sent to the combat zone.
That is, recruit people who won’t compensate.
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The third need is rotational. On the battlefield,
units need to be replaced by equivalent units.
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If we cover all these needs in their
entirety, Russia needs to mobilize
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40,000 to 50,000 people every month, but this
is unlikely before Putin's election in 2024.
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Russian troops are not as effective now as they
were at the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine,
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at the beginning of the war there was an elite
with years of experience. Now most soldiers are a
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mobilized reserve and their successes are limited
to localized offensives or defense. Shortages
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of equipment, ammunition, and gear all affect
the survivability of poorly trained personnel.
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Having called up more than 500,000
men, Russia could not achieve within
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a year even 10% of the goals that the "elite"
grouping of 180,000 men achieved in the first
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half of 2022. This is a simple and eloquent
comparison that emphasizes the importance of
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a professional component in the army, as well
as regular supply and compensation for losses.
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And yet, even without large-scale
achievements in the combat zone,
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this resource plays an inhibiting role, slowing
down the progress of the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
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The solution to this problem is trivial and
obvious, but not easy when you are on the
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offensive. As statistics has shown, their
problems begin at losses of 20 thousand or
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more occupants per month, of course, in
conjunction with the technical component.
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This is by far the most effective value
to exsanguinate its defense potential.
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For example, not having a sufficient
number of armored combat vehicles,
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the occupants are forced to attack either by
placing troops on top of the armor of tanks,
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or by using unarmored civilian transport.
And this increases the casualty rate.
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As the war is prolonged by
attracting human resources,
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the situation with its technical support
worsens. And the worse this component is,
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however paradoxical it may sound,
the more manpower is needed.
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And here the Russian army runs into an existential
impasse, when it is impossible to provide more
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technical components to the front, and it will
no longer be possible to compensate for its
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shortage with human resources – as well as to
ensure the growing resource of this component.
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The number of Russian troops and
their mobilization potential have
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always been called the advantage of Russian
troops, but they are also their weak point.
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