All language subtitles for 9. Handling Estimating Error

What can you do to handle concerns
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about significant estimating error?
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Of course, start by implementing the best practices
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to minimize the problem.
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Have the person who will do the job in execution,
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define the deliverables
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and perform the estimating during planning,
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so they will feel responsible
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for producing the most accurate result.
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And have the owner provide an activity breakdown
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for each deliverable,
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so they can think through the detail
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and provide the most realistic results.
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You're not going to micromanage that activity breakdown.
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You just need to have an estimate
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that's been thought through.
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However, what can you do if that doesn't happen
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for reasons outside your control
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or some team members are junior
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or have not done this kind of work before
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or you have other reasons to be concerned the estimates
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could be significantly in error?
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A couple things.
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First, you can check the estimates by trying
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to find an independent comparison,
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such as a standard industry metric
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or results from a past project.
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Second, you can obtain one to three independent estimates
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from other parties,
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preferably from a different department, group,
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or contractor to ensure objectivity.
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Sometimes this is called ICEing an estimate,
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finding an Independent Cost Estimate.
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Be warned, however, that the independent estimators are
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usually motivated to provide a larger estimate,
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to show that they are more accurate
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than the original estimator.
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And then, if you are still concerned
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the estimate is too low,
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the risk budget is your last resort safety net
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and can be used to acknowledge the estimating problem.
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You can always add a line to the risk register called
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something like Estimating uncertainty
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and Delphi an appropriate probability, time and cost
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to cover the estimating shortfalls.
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This should only be one line on the risk register.
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And once this time and cost reserve is used up,
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you should not start dipping
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into the rest of the risk budget
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which is set aside for other specific things
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that can cause problems,
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but at least you have set aside some time and cost
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to address this particular risk.