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Now that we have our risks
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in standard risk statement form,
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we can qualify them for subsequent processing.
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Qualification orders the risks from worst to least,
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so we can short-list them to the maximum top ten.
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Why ten maximum?
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It turns out that in practice,
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management of ten risks is enough, even on large projects,
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since any beyond the top ten are always relatively small.
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Smaller risks beyond the top ten should be addressed
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by putting time and money to deal with them
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directly into the project.
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If they don't happen, you get lucky.
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So how do you do qualification?
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The PMBOK says you need a quick scoring system
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for probability and impact that everyone agrees on.
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Sometimes that system is just low, medium, or high.
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Here's a typical system with a bit more granularity.
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For each of probability, and impact,
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there is a definition of the score
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from 1, least, to 5, worst.
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You quickly score each risk
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for both probability and impact from this table,
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or whatever your organization uses as their standard,
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and then multiply the probability and impact
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to get a ranking from 1 to 25 for each risk.
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This is the big innovation in risk management.
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We don't just consider the impact of a risk,
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we take probability into account as well.
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A risk could have a high impact
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but be very unlikely, whereas another risk
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could have only a medium impact but be very likely,
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in which case we should give it more attention,
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since the probable impact is greater.
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With a ranking for each risk in hand,
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we then short-list to the top ten risks maximum
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for the next step in the process.
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If you have less than ten risks to start with,
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you can actually skip this step
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and go straight to the next step, risk quantification.
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