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Footage from the Russian airfield of
Soltsy with the Tu-22M3 in flames again
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demonstrated a striking thing, Ukraine
has changed the pattern of the war.
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Russia is losing strategic bombers,
fighting a state that has almost no
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aviation and no long-range aviation
and long-range missiles at all.
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We see roughly the same thing
in the battle for the Black Sea.
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When Ukraine, having no navy of its own,
sinks Russian ships one after another.
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The Tu-22M3 is part of Russia's nuclear triad,
and this is already a very high level strike.
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If we speak the language of Russian
propaganda, all red and brown lines of
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all possible shades have been crossed,
it's time to choose a new color.
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As a result of the attacks on the Soltsy
airfields, two Tu-22M3 strategic bombers were
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completely destroyed, and two more were damaged.
Total of 4 units were taken out of service.
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This aircraft was developed in the USSR
for the Kh-22 Storm missile, which may
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have a nuclear warhead for massive strikes on
aircraft carrier groups of the United States.
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Tu-22M3 is a really serious
machine, but there is a nuance.
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They were produced at the Kazan
Aircraft Plant and even now they
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have invested 400 million dollars there,
because they think they can revive,
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but they can not. On the conveyor belt
of the plant there are hulls of these
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airplanes from the times of the Soviet
Union, and they could not revive it all.
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According to open sources we know that they
built these airplanes in the range of 60,
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but less than 20 are working. The last one
came off the assembly line in the early
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90s. And every such destroyed machine cannot be
replaced, they can't build it, it's impossible.
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They will go by the method of cannibalism,
from some machines they will remove units and
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mechanisms, put them on other machines, but
each lifting of such a machine into the air
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is a load and once again a load. Consequently,
sooner or later this resource will be exhausted,
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and Russia will be left without
this element of the nuclear triad.
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Strikes on airfields, which have become
quite routine, have two important results.
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First: The number of carriers is reduced, of
which Russia does not have very many left,
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and each one that disappears reduces
its ability to fire airborne missiles
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at Ukrainian territory in the long run.
They can't make new bombers anymore.
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Second: They are forced to relocate the surviving
machines far away, literally to hell on the horns.
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This significantly increases the range
of their flight to the launch sites,
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they have to spend precious irreplaceable
motor resource and increases the time for
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preparation of Ukrainian air defense to repel
a strike and for civilians to take shelter.
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As for what was used to destroy it
- a drone launched from Ukraine or
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unknown saboteurs from Russia - both are good.
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If the first - then there is no air defense as
a systemic phenomenon (however, we have already
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discussed this), if the second - there is no
counterintelligence, which should fight saboteurs.
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However, both are not mutually exclusive things.
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The most important conclusion is that the
process has begun, it will increase. And
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the scaling will be left to those people
who should do it, and they will do it.
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By the way, August 24th is Ukraine's independence
day. Earlier, the head of intelligence Budanov
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announced interesting events. I certainly
do not expect anything, as psychological
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operations are an integral element of war, but
I really hope for spectacular fireworks....
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