All language subtitles for [English] Why the US Military is Preparing for War With China [DownSub.com]

(soft suspenseful music)

(troops yelling in foreign language)

- [Radio Operator] Zero
to three, two, five.

- There's a small volcanic island

off the southern coast of
Japan called Mageshima.

(slides clicking)

Nobody lives here, but here's
footage from January 2023

of construction workers
arriving to this island.

Their task is to build a
couple of runways on the island

and some storage
facilities for ammunition.

The Japanese government has
been paying local fishermen

to stay away from this island.

That's because they're turning
it into a military base.

The island is being built by Japan,

but one of its main purposes has to do

with the United States.

American fighter jets

and aircraft carriers have
had to do their drills

and practices down here on this island,

but now they're able to
station at this island,

moving them much closer to this ocean

and to one country in particular.

(tense music)

Mageshima is just one of many islands

that are being loaded up
with military hardware,

most of it coming from the United States.

It's part of this chain
of militarized islands,

an effort of defense or aggression,

depending on how you look at it.

It's a line that centers on Taiwan,

and it's what one
official was referring to

when they said that
2023 is likely to stand

as the most transformative
year in US force posture

in this region in a generation.

This line is a symbol

of the rising tensions
between global superpowers,

and I wanna show you why
this is happening now

and what it means for the
future of this conflict.

- This is unlike anything
the US Navy has done

since World War II.

- Tensions are rising

in one of the most hotly
contested regions on the planet,

the South China Sea.

- [Pilot] Philippine military aircraft,

I'm warning you again.

Leave immediately.

- Hey, I'm gonna pause
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Let's dive back into this important story.

Here we go.

Okay, so this document from
the US Department of Defense,

this document is called the
National Defense Strategy

of the United States of America,

which also includes the
Nuclear Posture Review

and Missile Defense Review.

It's basically a report that
they release every four years

that gives us an understanding

of what the US military is
up to, what they care about.

- [Radio Operator] Zero, three,
be advised we have a visual.

- But this year's is more
detailed than normal.

The document focuses a lot on China.

- If China threatens our sovereignty,

concerns directly with China.

- The DoD says that China, quote,

"remains our most consequential
strategic competitor

for coming decades."

Why?

Because, the Pentagon says,
China is bullying its neighbors

to, quote, "reshape the region
and the international system

to fit its authoritarian preferences."

Now, remember that the United States,

who spends loads on its military,

has set the rules for our global order,

how we trade, what
political systems we favor,

who participates in the system,

and now we see a country
that wants to dethrone them

to create a new system
based on other values

and other rules.

(energetic electronic music)

And what scares the US military

is that China is rapidly modernizing

and expanding their military.

China's military is
growing incredibly fast.

Like they deploy the equivalent

of an entire new British
Navy every four years.

Every four years, it's
like new British Navy,

like new Royal Navy every four years.

Yeah, they're just growing very quickly.

This report is concerned
about China's growing strength

and military footprint.

(troops yelling in foreign language)

- How China is coercing its neighbors,

disregarding ocean
boundaries, testing missiles,

bullying fishing vessels
in other countries' waters,

building islands and military
bases on those islands,

and flying over other countries' airspace

and especially in Taiwan,

the island that China claims as their own

and where the globe gets nearly all

of their advanced microchips,

which is a topic I made
an entire video about.

The point is Taiwan is an
incredibly important island

for the United States.

All of this together makes China, quote,

"the only country that has the intent

and power to actually challenge
the US-led global order

and rewrite global rules and norms,"

something the US has gotten
really comfortable doing

over the last 70 years.

So this is why the US considers China

the most consequential
strategic competitor

for coming decades, and they've
created a plan to respond.

And in their words, "We cannot delay."

They give themselves this 10-year window

to implement some major changes,

and this is what it looks like.

Okay, first things first.

The US military is already
very present in Asia.

We've got about 8,000 troops in Guam.

We've got over 100 bases in Japan

with about 21,000 American
troops on the mainland

and another 24,000 stationed down here

on the Japanese island of Okinawa.

Go up to South Korea, and
you'll find 22,000 US troops.

And then you've got the US Navy

who operates out of
this port in Singapore.

This has been the status
quo in Asia for decades,

and it has been the way

that the US has ensured
security for its allies,

and it's kind of mostly worked

to help secure American
interests and deter conflict.

The US has maintained strong
alliances in this region

and, frankly, the Pentagon
has kind of been distracted

with other things, two wars
that happened in the Middle East

over the past 20 years.

- My fellow citizens, my fellow citizens.

- Surrendered at 4:00.
- My fellow citizens.

- But as those conflicts wind
down and as China militarizes,

the Department of Defense
says that this status quo,

all of these troops in
Asia, it's not enough.

They talk about this
new kind of deterrence,

integrated deterrence,

the only kind of military posture

that will actually keep China at bay.

And this is what it looks like.

The smallest part of
the strategy has to do

with American bases.

They're gonna reopen a base in Guam

and move some troops there.

But the majority of
this strategy has to do

with American allies in Asia,

allies that are in
lockstep with the US's goal

to deter and contain China.

The Pentagon calls partnering

with its allies the center
of gravity for this strategy.

So let's start with Japan,

one of the US's closest
allies in the region.

Japan is a country that
is deeply concerned

about a more powerful China,

with its massive navy and its
ambitions to control Taiwan.

And it's very easy to forget
that Japan isn't just this.

It's actually all of this.

It extends way down here
because of all these islands.

These islands curve
nicely all the way down

till they hit Taiwan.

All of these are Japanese islands.

I mean, if you look at Japan's
national defense strategy

translated into English,

you will see something that
looks strikingly similar

to what the Pentagon released.

They're both really
freaked out about China,

and they both are ready to act in lockstep

to deter a more aggressive
China in the region.

So it starts up here with that
island that we talked about

at the beginning, Mageshima,

this new military base and airstrip

to be used by both
Japanese and US militaries.

Further south is Amami Island,

where Japan has recently
added long-range missiles

and anti-ship missiles.

Potentially they're gonna
add cruise missiles.

These are missiles that they're buying

from the United States.

These are missiles that are definitely

in range of the Taiwan Strait.

Next in the chain is Okinawa,

where the US has a huge presence

of tens of thousands of troops already.

Japan also has military bases here

and is adding even more
long-range missiles

and electronic warfare units

for military installations
meant to disrupt

and deny communication signals.

On these two islands down here,

they're adding even more
long-range missiles,

which could potentially be used

to attack Chinese naval
ships and aircraft.

And Japan is placing nearly
600 troops on Ishigaki as well.

And finally you've got this
last militarized island

in the chain, Yonaguni.

It's the closest island to Taiwan.

And here Japan is adding more

of those electronic warfare units

which are used to jam
communication signals

or to listen in on their communications.

You know, they're right next to China.

Japan is also positioning
more troops here.

So this is the first part of our chain,

and when paired with training

that Japan and US troops are doing

to simulate island and amphibious warfare,

it sends a really strong signal to China

that Japan is ready to respond if needed.

This line also serves

as like a physical barrier
that any Chinese ship

or submarine would have to pass through

in order to access the Pacific Ocean.

It's a line that Japan can
easily control and monitor,

and it also builds a wall of missiles.

Any calculus that China is making

on whether or not to invade Taiwan

or to do anything in the
region will have to now factor

in this wall of missiles ready to roll.

Overall, this increased military presence

on this chain of islands gives Japan

and by extension, the United States,

the ability to monitor communications

and troop movements of China,

preparing them to act quickly.

And it also gives them the
ability to pre-position troops

and supplies throughout the region,

which is a major logistical advantage.

But all of this comes
with a massive price tag.

So, Japan, which is
formally a pacifist nation

without like a huge military,

is actually planning to
double their defense spending.

They're spending way more

on buying weapons than
they ever have before,

and 97% of those weapons are
coming from the United States.

The island-chain strategy
continues down here

with the Philippines, close to Taiwan

and close to the South China Sea.

The US knows that it needs
to bolster its presence here,

but it's not as straightforward
as it is in Japan.

The Philippines was a
US colony for decades.

It's a very sensitive history.

And even after Filipino independence,

the US maintained a military presence

in the Philippines until like the '90s.

And then they eventually
kicked out the US,

as many saw it as just an
enduring legacy of US colonialism.

But a more aggressive China
has become a major threat

to the Philippines.

Now listen, I'm not gonna go

into like a full South
China Sea thing here,

but just know that
China claims all of this

as their maritime boundary.

It's literally a line with nine dashes

that some Chinese official in
1948 drew by hand on a map.

This line blasts through the boundaries

that the rest of the world recognizes

as the Filipino territorial waters.

So there's a conflict in the ocean,

and now on a daily basis,

Filipino fishing vessels are harassed

by Chinese military vessels,

who threaten them if they
don't leave their waters.

In 2022, China put a temporary stop

to all fishing in the South China Sea,

denying the Philippines' ability

to fish in the West Philippine Sea,

which is rightfully their waters.

But it's crazier than that.

The Chinese Navy is like full-blown

just bullying the Philippines.

They like show up with lasers

to harass and blind Filipino ships.

I mean, let's remember

the Philippines is a much
smaller nation than China

and doesn't really have a navy
even close to what China has.

So now they're in this
impossible decision.

They have to choose between
giving up their sovereignty

and fishing rights to their
aggressive neighbor, China,

or partnering with their former colonizer,

who also wants to repel China.

And in this case, they chose the latter.

- China has pushed too hard.

It's pushed the Philippines
in the South China Sea,

what they call the West Philippine Sea.

- The Philippines is planning
to boost its military presence

in the disputed South China Sea.

- It started in 2014, when
they allowed the US back in

for the first time in 22 years.

The US presence will
technically be in bases

that are owned by the Philippines,

but the US can have troops, build barracks

and other military installations,

and can have pre-positioned
supplies there as well.

It's basically like
the US has bases there,

but it's like, sh, it's
actually the Philippines.

And as part of all of this
that we've been talking about,

in late 2022, they
expanded their agreement,

giving the US military
access to four more bases,

bringing the total number of bases

on the Philippines up to nine.

And look where they selected to put them,

here in the north of the country,

strategically close to Taiwan

and helping fill their gap

in their island chain
that they're creating.

This now allows US

to have a military presence
really close to Taiwan.

The US trains very closely with
their Filipino counterparts,

making them ready to respond very quickly

to an invasion in Taiwan

while also repelling Chinese bullying

of Filipino fishing activity.

Okay, so now the island
chain is filling out,

giving the US and its regional
partners a solid blockade

to the Pacific,

and it continues all the way
down around the South China Sea

because of the US presence in Singapore.

This is a very united front,
but it doesn't stop here.

(camera shutter clicks)

The last part of the strategy

is potentially the most significant,

and it has to do with Australia,

a country that is also alarmed

by China's rise in the region.

So there's this military pact

between the US, the UK, and Australia.

It's called AUKUS.

What it means is that
these three countries

will work together to create
a unified submarine force

that will patrol the Pacific.

First what it means is
that the US is giving,

giving, nuclear submarine technology,

its most powerful and advanced
weapon, freely to Australia.

Here, here are the designs
to our most powerful weapons.

Take them, foreign country.

And then the US and UK
will base submarines

out of this port here in Australia.

It's called Perth.

Australian sailors will ride alongside US

and UK sailors during
submarine deployments.

They will learn together.

They will work together.

They will share classified intelligence.

What this means

is that there will be a
significantly larger number

of submarines patrolling these waters.

And remember, these are
nuclear-powered submarines,

which we made a whole video on as well.

These things can be underwater for months.

They can go on these long
patrols over to Taiwan

and the South China Sea.

They can close up these key choke points,

plugging holes in their
growing line against China.

And crucially, we can
be pretty damn certain

that a lot of these submarines

will be carrying nuclear weapons,

adding yet another
layer of deterring power

to an already really
powerful line of defense.

And if this wasn't enough,

Australia is also building
a permanent hangar

for US B-52 bombers up
here in the Tindal Airbase

in Northern Australia.

These US bombers carry
conventional weapons,

but they also carry nukes.

So now US bombers carrying nuclear weapons

will have a permanent home in Australia.

There's gonna be a lot
more military hardware

in the Pacific because of this,

hardware that carries the most powerful

and dangerous weapons we have.

This is a very aggressive signal

to China that the West is ready.

(camera shutter clicks)

So now if you look at the
whole thing, this whole chain,

you see how robust this presence is.

This is what that military
official meant by transformative.

The military name for this
is the first island chain,

and it is at the heart of the US'

and its allies' strategy to
counter and contain China.

And it's easy to see
that this island chain,

while protecting a lot
of different interests

for a lot of different countries,
really centers on Taiwan.

A major purpose for all
of this militarization,

the missiles, the subs,
the airbases, the troops,

is to prepare for conflict in Taiwan.

And this is where we get to
the paradox of deterrence.

You prepare to fight so that
you don't have to fight.

All of this preparation
might be just what is needed

for China to decide that
it would be too costly

to invade Taiwan.

But the other side of that paradox

is that all of this looks an
awful lot like overt escalation

in a conflict.

If you're China, this chain

of islands is clearly your
enemy trying to box you in

to monitor your every move,

a superpower from the other side

of the world flooding your region

with more military hardware
to stop your influence.

It would be impossible for
this plan to not contribute

to a rising of tensions
between the two superpowers.

- All this as the US prepares

for a potential conflict with China.

- How close are we to all-out conflict

between the world's two
largest superpowers?

(Chinese minister speaking
in foreign language)

- Chinese President Xi Jinping

has already called this a policy

of encirclement and suppression.

And let's be honest, he's right.

Whether you like it or not,

this is containment old-school,
Cold War-style containment.

It's hard not to see it
when you look at this map,

and the Chinese Foreign Minister said

that it would literally be impossible

for China to not fight back

to take a move that
retaliates against this move,

which means that if the US

and its allies aren't
careful with all of this,

it may send a signal to China

that now is the time to invade Taiwan

before all of this plan
can fully be implemented.

In that sense, this strategy
could provoke the very conflict

that it is trying to deter.

(suspenseful music)

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Have a good day.

Okay.

(light music)