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About the connection between the counteroffensive,
the Wagner rebellion, and the desperation
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of Shoigu and Gerasimov.
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Many European leaders, despite their own statements,
sometimes slip that "Russia cannot be defeated.
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Over three decades Russia has successfully
created a propaganda myth that its military
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might and reserve capabilities are identical
to those of the Soviet Union in WWII.
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But the recent convulsive redeployment of
personnel in police vans against mechanized
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units, pulling units by planes thousands of
kilometers near Moscow, mobilization of conscripts,
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undermining bridges, destroying roads showed
that Russia has a problem with reserves.
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It turned out to be a problem to stop the
advance of 20,000 Wagner troops, but there
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are opinions that there were no more than
5,000 of them.
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As expected, the Western community perceived
the events in Russia as a demonstration of
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weakness by Putin personally:
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Italian Foreign Minister: "The attempted mutiny
by the Wagnerians means that the 'myth of
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Putin's Russia's unity is over.
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French President Macron: "This situation reinforces
the importance of Western support for Ukraine.
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All this should make us even more attentive
and fully justify our support for Ukraine.
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European Union chief diplomat Borrell: " The
Wagner crisis shows that Ukraine is "breaking
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Russia's power.
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Why am I bringing up the Prigozhin situation
again and quoting it?
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I do so because of the context of the Ukrainian
offensive.
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The fact is that, despite various "insiders,"
no one is removing Shoigu and Gerasimov, perhaps
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not yet.
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On the contrary, the Russian media are trying
to whitewash their reputations as much as
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possible.
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An example of one such substitution of notions
about Shoigu: "he went to hear reports," rather
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than running with his tail between his legs.
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The Ukrainian armed forces managed to stretch
the enemy's reserves along the front from
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the Dnipro to Siversk with relatively limited
forces.
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If we take the map, we see a number of wedges
into the enemy's defensive orders.
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All of these potential challenges that the
AFU has created for the enemy in a few weeks
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need a "response," which the enemy can only
accomplish by using reserves and trying to
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counterattack.
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But these reserves are either moved to disadvantageous
areas of defense, or they oversaturate the
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defense line and increase losses.
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At the same time, the Ukrainian command has
not yet brought in the main reserves and can
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play the lined front as they wish.
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And the enemy has recently begun unpacking
operational and strategic reserves in the
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south.
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Why does the enemy act in a way that makes
no sense?
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All because of the politicization of the front,
which has been intensified by the Wagner clowning.
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The enemy's defense system is built competently,
but this sovietism in the head of Russia's
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political leadership - "not one step back"
- makes things difficult for the military.
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Therefore, where it is better to withdraw
forces quickly, the enemy tries to counter-attack
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under the Ukrainian artillery, which surpasses
them in quality and counter-battery struggle.
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So what does this have to do with the Wagner
mutiny?
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Imagine Gerasimov and Shoigu doing a real
regrouping in certain non-critical areas overall.
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Howling of their opponents against the background
of the situation with wagner will become critical
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for their image and no one will listen to
"objective reasons".
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So the only option available to them is to
unpack the reserves and counterattack to level
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the front, hoping for the best.
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In essence, the "Wagner rebellion," complete
with the weak legitimacy of the military command,
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leads to the politicization of the front,
which in turn leads to the "cumulative effect
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of disaster.
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