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Russian propaganda resources, "experts" and otherĀ
talking heads, are now convincing their faithfulĀ Ā
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or casual consumers of information fast food thatĀ
the "offensive" of the Ukrainian defense forcesĀ Ā
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is taking place in an area that is outsideĀ
the main defense line of the Russian army.
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And this is true. But there is a nuance.
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That zone where the Ukrainians are now conductingĀ
combat reconnaissance is an operational zone.Ā Ā
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It is designed to slow down the advanceĀ
of the main enemy forces and, if possible,Ā Ā
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to stop them completely. It isĀ
there where the main mine andĀ Ā
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landmine obstacles and ambush ofĀ
the Russian side are concentrated.
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So Russian propagandists tell the truth - this isĀ
not the main line of defense. But the UkrainiansĀ Ā
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have not even started the offensive yet either,Ā
and are conducting quite different activities.
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In turn, what happens to the enemy forces ?Ā
And the occupation forces that were in reserve,Ā Ā
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mainly on the 2nd and 3rd lines, areĀ
already being drawn down to the supply line!
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In particular, to stop theĀ
Ukrainians from advancingĀ Ā
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down the Mokri Yaly river to Staromlynivka,Ā Ā
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the Russian command sent the 127th Motor RifleĀ
Division from the "comfortable" trenches.Ā Ā
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The 58th Combined Arms Army also did not feelĀ
very comfortable in the Zaporizhzhia expanses,Ā Ā
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and urgently needed an additional resourceĀ
in the form of the 49th Combined Arms Army.
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From the Kherson region began to pull forcesĀ
into the triangle Tokmak-Vasylivka-Melitopol,Ā Ā
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to strengthen the third line.
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Why is this happening? Were the reservesĀ
thrown to reinforce the 2nd line or allĀ Ā
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gone lying bone in the support line? What aboutĀ
the left bank then? After the dam explosion,Ā Ā
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the large body of water is already receding...
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I have been saying for quite a long time thatĀ
the Russian troops in the whole combat zoneĀ Ā
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have the most problematic grouping in KhersonĀ
and Zaporizhzhia regions. In detail, from monthĀ Ā
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to month, I pointed to their main vulnerabilities,Ā
namely - the lack of full staff equipment units.
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And also the absence of the possibilityĀ
of filling all the lines of defense withĀ Ā
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a proportionally sufficient number of defenders.Ā Ā
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That is, not only are they critically shortĀ
of equipment, for the number of men they have,Ā Ā
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but also critically short of men to fillĀ
the lines of defense completely with them.
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And now we are seeing in all its gloryĀ
the manifestation of all these facts.
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While the Ukrainian defense forcesĀ
have not yet started anything inĀ Ā
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earnest and are using units of limitedĀ
functionality, the Russian forces areĀ Ā
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already being forced to put their reservesĀ
into action from the 2nd and 3rd lines!
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Of course, Russian propagandists will not tellĀ
their consumers of informational fast food this.Ā Ā
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They will tell that as a result ofĀ
the "failed" offensive the UkrainianĀ Ā
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army lost more than 50% of its personnel, allĀ
Leopard 2 tanks were destroyed, Kyiv panics,Ā Ā
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Biden has dementia, Scholz and MacronĀ
are already calling Putin in hysterics,Ā Ā
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and the Chinese and Bulgarians as usualĀ
admired the actions of the Russian army...
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Well, let them tell it. But taking intoĀ
account the movements going on in the deepĀ Ā
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and not so deep in the rear of the temporarilyĀ
occupied territories of southern Ukraine,Ā Ā
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we can conclude that in fact theĀ
Russian army is not doing very well.Ā Ā
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I would use the term "pre-stroke state," but someĀ
people take me somewhat literally, not alwaysĀ Ā
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understanding the allegories, so I will leave theĀ
option "the Russian army is not doing very well.
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We are on the verge of great eventsĀ
and while Ukraine's defense forces areĀ Ā
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operating at the level of reconnaissanceĀ
troops, the enemy is feverishly pullingĀ Ā
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in the remnants of Marines who have neverĀ
seen the sea and Arctic assault aircraft,Ā Ā
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which will not be fated to beĀ
the dinner of polar bears...
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