Original subtitles

Ukrainian analysts predict a Ukrainian army counteroffensive in the near future

and the return of much of the territory currently controlled by the Russian army.

This opinion is also shared by some American sources. At the same time,

the Ukrainian general staff keeps its plans secret, just as in the two previous cases when

it carried out similar actions in Kherson and Kharkov. Who would have doubted it...

Earlier in the previous months, the Russian side had been gathering forces for an offensive and

attempting to seize territory, mainly in the Donetsk region. They managed to take complete

control of the town of Soledar, while fierce fighting is still going on in neighboring Bakhmut.

But in fact, the Russian "conquests" in recent months are considered paltry in

relation to the resources expended, both manpower and loss of military equipment.

The failure in the key town of Ugledar is extremely telling, as it is a railway junction.

By controlling this city, the Russians could supply their army units located

in Zaporizhzhya Oblast and in the southern part of Donetsk, Melitopol, and other places.

However, the enemy not only failed to succeed, but also suffered significant losses.

Much more significant losses were sustained in Bakhmut, this small town, which, however,

has a special geography - it is divided by a river and has hills.

From about the beginning of the siege of Bakhmut last summer,

its capture was rather symbolic, as a show of strength, since the Russians probably intended

to take the rest of the Donetsk region, moving from the town of Izyum in the Kharkov region.

However, this entire region was liberated by the Ukrainian side and today, in addition

to propaganda and strategic planning, Bakhmut has taken on another meaning for the Russians.

They have lost too much in that city, and they will have to justify those losses by

continuing to attack the city. Therefore, they are constantly moving weapons and new soldiers there,

either from the regular army or from the so-called "Wagner Group." Understanding Russia’s decision to

take the city "at any cost", the Ukrainians decided to hold it for as long as possible,

rather than moving their units elsewhere to protect them, as the Americans suggested.

Therefore, today, the Russians are moving to Bakhmut those forces, which should be located

to the south to retain control over the area in case of Ukrainians advance to the Azov Sea.

Before I continue, I ask you to subscribe to my channel, it will help promote it.

There are three possible directions from which the Ukrainians could launch

their future counteroffensive, which are the Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and Lugansk directions.

But no one can know what plans the general staff has and what order they will give.

With the great importance of Bakhmut, no counteroffensive will be attempted from this side.

The main purpose of this counteroffensive will be to cut off Russian military forces

further south and as far as Crimea from supply channels. At present,

supplies are provided mainly through the Kerch Bridge, which the Russians built, but if fighting

intensifies in these areas, the supply needs will be much greater and cannot be met in this way.

Ukraine has indeed "accumulated" enough forces, domestically, that it can

immediately use them for a counterattack. A very important factor is weather, which,

on the one hand, will determine the timing of the counterattack and, on the other hand,

may be different in the three directions where the counterattack may manifest itself.

I hesitate to make any predictions as to when this counterattack may begin,

but some analysts put it in the middle or end of spring. However, whatever successes the Ukrainians

may have as a result of this counterattack will not be enough to end the war in 2023.

Despite this, it is important to keep in mind the possibility of

unexpected events or exceptions, often referred to as "black swans.