Original subtitles

Counteroffensive by the AFU may begin in several directions at once or in one direction, only the

Ukrainian General Staff knows for sure. But it is necessary to clarify a little the situation

on the left bank of the Kherson region and the possibilities in this particular direction...

And at once I want to note that the situation there has a direct

connection with events in the Zaporizhzhya region and will not develop by itself.

To date, the group of Russian troops "Dnieper" has

a numerical composition comparable to 100 Battalion tactical groups.

Their potential is 170 tanks, 570 armored fighting vehicles, 300 artillery pieces and 18 MLRS.

These units have one of the largest understaffing in a number of positions in the combat zone.

But at the same time, this group does not demonstrate any preparations to retreat.

Moreover, some units have received equipment to be re-staffed.

I remind you that when the occupiers were preparing to flee from the right bank,

there were clear signs of this. Despite sending partially mobilized units to this location,

which I regularly reported on and which were nothing more than a cover for retreating regulars.

Even when almost everyone was talking about some kind of trap the enemy was preparing, I emphasized

that they couldn't set any trap, given the processes that were going on on the right bank.

But, now I can't say the same about the left bank - they're not getting ready to run.

At least not yet.

The fact is that on the left bank the Russian forces are simultaneously in relative safety,

but at the same time as on a volcano. This paradox is due to the fact that the occupants

are protected from a counterattack by the AFU by a natural barrier - the Dnieper River,

through which it is fraught and unprofitable to counterattack.

But with such a natural line of defense and protection,

the enemy is on the left bank as in the palm of their hand for Ukrainian artillery.

And it is for this reason that some of their units were withdrawn beyond more than 20

kilometers from the Dnieper. But that’s not all, because the logistics are loose.

Let us imagine some activation of the AFU in Zaporizhzhia region. And if this

intensification leads to de-occupation, for example, Novooleksiivka and the exit

of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to the administrative border of the temporarily

occupied territory of Crimea, the left bank group will be in an interesting situation.

In fact, for the Russian troops on the left bank, the risks of finding themselves in an operational

encirclement, which will gradually narrow down to a tactical encirclement, immediately increase.

This would mean a minimum of 25-30 groups in the encirclement.

Russian command cannot afford such losses in the form of prisoners.

Therefore, the withdrawal of the enemy forces from the left bank is quite possible, but only when

there is a serious threat of cutting and fire control of the M17 and T2202 routes. And this

is possible only when the issue of liberation of Zaporizhzhia region will be solved and not before.

I noted recently that invader tank units continue to artisanally increase the protection of their

Main battle tanks, by placing reactive armor wherever possible, even if it makes no sense.

But, a new video gives a general idea of the deliriousness of such enhancements.

In particular the Russian T-80BV was clad with the reactive armor

"Kontakt-1" and at the same time it was dismantled the infrared spotlight "Luna",

which was responsible for the illumination of targets at night.

In other words, the originally mediocre capabilities of the tank to at least somehow

manifest itself at night were replaced by a build-up of dynamic protection,

which absolutely does not protect against modern means of destruction.

Is this a professional and high-quality approach? No, it's not. It's panic and fear.

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