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So several scenarios for the
end of the war have emerged.
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But there is no one that would suit all sides.
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The first one is Russian. To fix the results for
today, a cease-fire, a long pause for preparation
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and a new war in X years. And the Ukrainians
and their partners understand this very well.
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The least likely scenario, I would say zero.
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The second is the Ukrainian scenario, supported by
its partners as well. Russia withdraws its troops
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to the borders of '91, negotiations begin about
compensation, war criminals, further coexistence.
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This does not suit Russia categorically.
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This is also because after the liberation
of the territories occupied before '22,
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and especially after, such a horror will be
uncovered there that we will all shudder.
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And in Russia itself it will be perceived as a
defeat, with relevant consequences: revanchism,
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distemper and the like. It is not for nothing
that everyone there rushed to get private armies.
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The third is the Chinese scenario,
which has replaced the Turkish one.
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Russia withdraws its troops to the borders of a
full-scale invasion, declares the goals of the
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operation complete, and begins negotiations on
further coexistence. Otherwise China threatens
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to start providing military assistance to Russia.
We will talk about this some time later or not.
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The fourth is military. Ukraine is
gathering the necessary reserves,
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breaking through the front near Melitopol,
reaching the Sea of Azov and creating
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conditions for the isolation of Crimea
and a threat to the separatist republics.
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Judging by President Biden's visit, Ukraine's
partners are betting on exactly this option.
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If you have your own option - share
in the comments below the video.
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I also want to comment on one piece of news.
"Serbia will refuse to buy Russian MiG-29s
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for the sake of planes from France."
There is a curious point in this story.
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Serbia received six fighters from Russia in 2017.
In 2019, Belarus handed them 4 more units. Both
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of these deliveries were at the expense of the
transmitting party, meaning Serbia paid nothing.
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Moreover, Russia paid for a full training course
for Serbian pilots, which cost the Russian budget
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more than $2 million. And all this was done, of
course, not because of deep fraternal feelings,
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but in an attempt to tighten the leash around
the neck of the Serbian president even tighter.
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Supplies of spare parts and components
for regular maintenance and scheduled
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repairs in Serbia were also carried out regularly.
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But since 2022 the deliveries have obviously
stopped and the strength of the Serbian MiG-29s
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was not enough for a long time. For a year
there are no deliveries of spare parts to
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Serbia and Belgrade is already ready to
consider options for their replacement.
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You know what the funniest thing is going to be?
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The funniest thing will be if Serbia will be able
to buy French fighters Dassault Rafale. But only
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on the condition of transferring its MiG-29
to Ukraine, even though through third hands.
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That is, Russia itself will transfer the
MiG-29 to the AFU at its own expense.
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This will be a completely different,
newest level for the Russian lend-lease!
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