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Let's estimate the losses of the
occupiers ? Russian troop losses
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are showing a steady increase
with a strong pre-requisite for
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a new record in February. In addition to
the forecast, there is another point...
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As the number of losses of the occupants
increases, the number of destroyed armored
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fighting vehicles continues to decrease. According
to Foreign Policy at the moment the Russian side
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has slightly more than 10 thousand armored
vehicles left. Although it is not known how
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many of them are actually combat-ready. Also
Foreign Policy says that 3,950 vehicles are
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ready. Mathematically this number of armored
vehicles may be possible, but it is worth
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paying attention to one nuance: for a long time
now the occupiers have been trying to attack
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without much armor support, which noticeably
reduces their potential. If armored vehicles
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were actually available in such quantity, they
would not be gathering dust in the warehouses.
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I have repeatedly drawn a parallel
between the provision of medium and
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light armor to units and offensive losses.
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For example, if in March 2022 the
enemy lost just over 3,900 men,
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and almost 900 armored fighting vehicles,
in January 2023 losses exceeded 2,700,
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and the losses of the armored fighting
vehicles were less than 300 units.
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That is, the ratio of destroyed vehicles to
losses of personnel has decreased by 16 times.
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And this is not because the Russian troops have
become better at fighting, if you think so.
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Now we can observe not only an increase
in losses among the occupying forces,
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but also a decrease in losses
of armored fighting vehicles,
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the shortage of which remains an acute
unsolvable problem for the Russian command.
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Personnel losses are on the rise and Putin's
generals are once again forced to change their
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war tactics. The Russian General Staff's plan to
replace heavy equipment with soldiers' carcasses
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does not work. Tactics of the Second
World War, which was used by the USSR,
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is not designed for technological resistance of
the modern army. Here you can see for yourself:
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Occupant casualties rose in February, and at the
current rate are expected to be 24,000-25,000.
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If you count the wounded, you get 65,000
casualties in January and 75,000 in February.
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If we consider that the Russian occupation
group makes up 350,000 people, then only
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in two months it will lose 190,000 soldiers
through irrecoverable and sanitary losses.
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Of course, some of the crippled will
be replaced by the medically treated.
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But most importantly, the Putin General Staff
should understand that the non-recoverable losses
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of the occupation troops are too great, so it is
impossible to compensate for the lack of heavy
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equipment by manpower in the future. Of course,
we should not throw various Private military
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companies and another wave of mobilization off
the scales. But given the clumsiness of the
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entire Russian military vertical, these efforts
will not fundamentally affect the overall trend.
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The only way out for the enemy is to seek
another strategy. What are the options?
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They will try to squeeze something out of the air
by launching the rest of their rockets, S-300s,
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drones, and even retrieving grandfather's balloons
from the depots. As a matter of fact, this has
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already been going on for the last 2-3 days.
Nor should general mobilization be ruled out.
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The Kremlin's obvious bet is on a kind of
militaristic masochism: stalling for time,
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expecting a successful counteroffensive by
the AFU and the defeat of the Russian army.
5262
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