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A new full-scale offensive by Russian troops...
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Over the past few days, everyone has been talkingÂ
about a new offensive by Russian troops in one Â
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form or another, from one direction or another,Â
in one quantity or another. At the same time, Â
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preparations for a new wave of mobilization areÂ
in full swing in Russia, which will be nothing but Â
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a continuation of what began back in SeptemberÂ
- a continuation of the general mobilization.
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Well, it sounds very threatening. Apparently,Â
you have to figure out whatâs going on. Â
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But to figure it out, you have to startÂ
from a distance. Since September 2022.
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In September, Russia began so-called partialÂ
mobilization, under which 300,000 people were Â
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drafted, and the next four months were a recordÂ
month of losses for the Russian troops. Over Â
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the course of 4 months, 47,000 were liquidated andÂ
94,000 were injured, using a conservative ratio of Â
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2:1. The total losses can be rounded to 150,000,Â
which must be replaced by another 150,000.
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In other words, within 120 days, the occupiersÂ
have nearly completely exhausted the resources Â
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of their fall mobilization, since each unitÂ
losing effectiveness must be compensated for.
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The question arises, when will the resource forÂ
the September mobilization reach the figure zero? Â
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Judging by the growing losses, by late February,Â
early March this biomass will be virtually gone. Â
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That is, in January and FebruaryÂ
they need to mobilize new cannon Â
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fodder in the amount of at least 50Â
thousand monthly. And not only that.
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In order to implement theÂ
plan of a protracted war, Â
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this number should be much largerÂ
in monthly terms, and for a new, Â
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large-scale offensive operation and even exceedÂ
the mobilization of 150-200 thousand per month.
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We have seen from the example ofÂ
the previous mobilization that all Â
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this unprofessional and low-quality mass slowed Â
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down the actions of the Ukrainian armyÂ
rather than blocking them. Otherwise, Â
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they did not bring any achievements, if not toÂ
speak about the records of their own losses.
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But the main question... They hardly providedÂ
anything for the cannon fodder of the first wave, Â
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and what will provide the subsequent wavesÂ
with? Mosin rifles made in 1892 ? Already Â
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been there, nothing new. "Armored fist"Â
consisting of such junk as T-55 and T-34? Â
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Artillery? Where to get shells. Will eachÂ
mobilized man be given a "Wagner sledgehammer"?
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Consequently, the AFU will simply needÂ
more weapons and ammunition to eliminate Â
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more occupiers. This is exactly whatÂ
will happen if the Russian command Â
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wants to use the resource of thisÂ
all obscenity for a new offensive.
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The plans of the Russian military-politicalÂ
leadership will, in one way or another, Â
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confront the harsh reality ofÂ
the mobilization potential. Â
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Specifically, the lack ofÂ
it within the Russian army, Â
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as well as the Ukrainian military's determinationÂ
in eliminating version 2.0 of the meat resource.
4380
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