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The general picture in the combatĀ
zone to date is as follows.
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Southern bridgehead:
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Left bank Kherson region in the state of formationĀ
of an operating zone with a depth of 10-20 km.Ā Ā
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In fact, all conditions for itsĀ
formation have been created,Ā Ā
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there is a process of fixing and strengtheningĀ
of capabilities for fire pressure/control.
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This operating area looks very interesting,Ā
especially if we take into account such a placeĀ Ā
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as the Kinburn Spit, which is a daggerĀ
under the rib for the Russian groupingĀ Ā
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on the left bank - kind of alive so far, butĀ
breathing is becoming increasingly difficult.Ā Ā
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The command of the Russian troops is wellĀ
aware of this, but cannot do anything about it.
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Zaporizhzhya location in the state ofĀ
forming conditions for a counterattack.Ā Ā
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At the moment the conditions are not formed,Ā Ā
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but the possibility of shooting through toĀ
the Azov coast accelerates this process.
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Russian troops have concentratedĀ
up to 15 Battalion tactical groupsĀ Ā
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in the area in the front line and about 6Ā
Battalion tactical groups in the reserve.
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It is noteworthy that these 6 Battalion tacticalĀ
group are focused on the crossroads betweenĀ Ā
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the left bank of Kherson and the ZaporozhyeĀ
location, that is, with a one-time activationĀ Ā
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of certain actions, can be used extremelyĀ
ineffectively. Obviously, it will be.
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East, the Donbass bridgehead :
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Donetsk location without significantĀ
changes continues to play blocking andĀ Ā
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drawing resources of Russian troops. In theĀ
near and medium term, a change in this roleĀ Ā
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in this area should not be expected. AndĀ
as soulless as it may sound, it has to.
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In fact, it is on what Ukrainian soldiers do inĀ
the Donetsk location will hold all that will beĀ Ā
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done on the other bridgeheads. And it is notĀ
only about tying the enemy resource, but alsoĀ Ā
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about solving a number of other, very importantĀ
tasks, which is not the time to talk about...
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The Luhansk direction is a location formedĀ
for a counteroffensive, which has both fireĀ Ā
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control of the main logistical arteries,Ā
hypertrophied and expanded gray zone,Ā Ā
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and exhausted resource of the 20thĀ
Guards Combined Arms Army units.
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Against this general background, the criticalĀ
lack of artillery in the Russian forces inĀ Ā
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three locations looks very striking, withĀ
the exception of Donetsk, where there isĀ Ā
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not a surplus, but enough to occasionallyĀ
simulate a rampart of fire near Bakhmut.
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Otherwise, in almost all locations there isĀ
a certain decrease in the efficiency of theĀ Ā
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management system and support system. LogisticsĀ
and the ability to compensate for losses in aĀ Ā
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timely manner, even as a poor resource in theĀ
form of useless recruits, are deteriorating.
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Thus, 3 out of 4 locations areĀ
either in a very promising position,Ā Ā
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or are going through a ripening process,Ā
for further immersion in this position.
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What could be the deciding factor for the startingĀ
signal, who knows? Only the AFU General Staff.
4413
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