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Why are the attacks on Russian
airfields an important and key event?
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First, it is a potential
weakening of their frontline.
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Russia is big. It cannot in principle cover
all of its territory with its air defenses.
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Close all their bases with anti-aircraft systems
too. They are already catastrophically short of
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air defense equipment. They are taking their
S-300 missile systems and bringing them from
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Syria precisely because of the shortage. Now the
Russian command faces the dilemma of removing some
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air defense forces from the front and moving
them under important strategic facilities,
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thereby weakening the front even more,
or leave their bases unprotected.
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Secondly, it is Ukrainian potential. Kiev has
shown that it strictly follows word and deed,
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and has the ability to create conditions and
means to influence the enemy at large distances,
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including military installations
in Moscow and Saint Petersburg.
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Third is the change in the rules of the game.
Whereas before Ukraine was a passive victim,
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now it is gradually but surely taking over the
initiative at all levels, up to and including the
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strategic level. Eventually, the war will have to
move to a state where Russia fights off Ukraine,
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rather than where Ukraine fights off Russia.
After that, it will already be possible for
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Kiev to fully demand the end of hostilities
at the negotiating table on its own terms.
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This is a return to the 1991 borders,
reparations, and disarmament of Russia.
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Fourth, it is a demonstration of Russia's extreme
vulnerability. The attacks took place not just
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anywhere, but at military airfields, where
strategic aviation capable of carrying nuclear
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weapons is located. That is, one component of the
Kremlin's nuclear triad. The shield was rotten
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and was punctured by several accurate blows. This
is a signal to NATO and the West in general that
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there is no point in being afraid of the nuclear
bear. It is vulnerable and cannot do anything
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substantial in response. By the way, there is
already such an understanding, for example, Austin
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Lloyd said that the U.S. does not limit Ukraine
in any way in the creation of long-range weapons.
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Fifth, there is the cost. Russia's strategic
bombers are piecemeal machines and insanely
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expensive. Restoring and repairing
them is time consuming and expensive.
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The Kremlin does not spare hundreds
of thousands of its subjects,
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but the expensive military vehicles are an
exhaustible and difficult resource to restore.
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