Original subtitles

affects a certain type of currency. Anyways guys take

we are in in the economy and then you can assume how that

and then actually understand what point in the cycle we are

right now what's happening and then of course look at all your

then of course that's when inflation starts to kick in you

economic stimulation lots of economic economic activity and

characteristics obviously I've listed here take note of them

other factors but anyways guys that's it for the economic

mean sorry when there's low interest rates there's a lot of

cycle definitely search this up any graphs you can see the

there's not much economic activity happening and no I

at. Now when there's too much expansion as I've said here as

eventually need to slow down the economic expansion

spectrum when they be when interest rates become low

and then of course the downfall of the economy on the opposite

increasing. So that's something that central banks have to look

employment, everything like that. Inflation is also

overheating is what economists call it. Interest rates are

this is a very dangerous stage that we're going to be looking

to ask you where are these areas? Where are interest rates

the economy grows more and more and accumulates more and more

debt also money supply increases as well. Now if I was

at when the yield curve inverts or you know remains flat that's

economic stimulation. This affects production, GDP,

increased to slow down the economic expansion. Each time

Now when there's too much expansion or so-called

being increased? Where they being decreased? Need to

they become low, more participants are likely to take

loans due to the low interest rates. Therefore increasing

the next few lessons. But how does this consistently happen?

whatever it may be. Hence why businesses are not as active.

when you know we we're going to get into that in more detail in

employment and every other factor that we've looked at.

Now think about it logically in terms of interest rates. When

great either. Interest rates are very high so not much

then of course the yield yield curve remains flat as well. And

then the final stage that we look at is the early recession.

the economy starts to you know to boom again as it once was in

previous stage where we had the earlier recovery this is where

otherwise you'll get factors happening like hyperinflation

the late recovery industrial production is quite low

interest rates start rising as well so you know the central

banks will have to increase interest rates because they

well or also known as overheat that's when bank the central

Sometimes even negative. And then yield curve is very steep

banks they have to they have to take action against all that

just got to understand this cycle where we are in the world

consumer expectations and interest rates but of course

earlier recovery. So that's the point where the economy starts

of them points as well. Then after the recession we get the

late recovery where consumer expectations drop industrial

world you would see between zero and 0. 2 5percent.

rise. Industrial production also increases. Interest rates

at this point as well. Then after that you get the late

are at complete lows so near 0 percent. Usually around the

refer back to this lessons once you have a proper understanding

getting back to how it was you know GDP's increasing, more

at this. This is the expansion stage right? When the economy's

understand that in terms of the economic cycle. So let's look

many people are taking loans. Um you know business loans or

economic activity. Not many people are borrowing money. Not

And then the yield curve flattens or can even invert and

So consumer expectations are at the lowest. Industrial

production is very bad so you can expect GDP to not be too

inflation that is happening in this earlier recovery stage and

usually see in a recession is GDP retracts after two

you know as long as 10 years but typically lasts around five

increasing, everything like that, GDP so an economic cycle

years So the first stage that we're going to be looking at is

economies are always growing, money supplies always

cycle you get a you know growth in the economy hence why

usually lasts around five years more recently they've lasted

positive wave so after every market cycle and every economic

production is neutral or flat so in comparison to the

going to be getting on to yield curves and of course all the

improving with a rising GDP. Then consumer expectations

see you know too much recovery and the economy starts to slow

just as a brief look at the economic cycle this is what you

down again that's early recession so as you can see the

recovery is the bottom in area then of course you get that

a recession. So the characteristics that you'd

expectations drop and yield curves remain normal. So we're

consecutive quarter readings. Interest rates fall. Consumer

economy moves in waves and usually it's a progressive and

comes to fundamentals it's the basic understanding of where we

lessons that you need to understand especially when it

we're going to be looking at the economic cycle and to be

Yes hello everyone welcome to the next video so in this one

care and I'll see you in the next video.

growth the late recovery and then as soon as you start to

usually have first stage would be recession then earlier

are in the economic cycle and what that usually entails so

fair this is honestly one of the most important and core