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"Avdeevka and Bakhmut".
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Quite a lot has already been said about how
important these cities are to the occupants,
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which they have not been able to capture for
more than six months of the offensive operation.
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The Russian forces concentrated
units in the direction of Bakhmut
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and Avdeevka that outnumbered the AFU.
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These were units of the First and Second Army
Corps, the "Wagner Group" and the "League",
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the "Redoubt" and the Battalion tactical
group 336th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade...
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As a result, virtually all of these and
other units have suffered casualties to
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date at the level of loss of combat
effectiveness. That is to say,
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the goal set has not been achieved and the human
and technical resources have been depleted.
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In my opinion, the Avdeevka and Bakhmut locations
will go down in military history, in textbooks on
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tactics and strategy, as not just demonstratively,
but demonstratively impeccably organized in
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terms of defense. After all, the defense of these
locations is maintained for more than six months.
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But it is important to understand something else.
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The resource of Russian troops spent on
these locations could have been used in
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other areas, where its presence would have been
disadvantageous for the AFU, to put it mildly.
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And so, this resource is routinely
ground, stuck at Avdeevka and Bakhmut
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in the grinder from which there will be no
way out for the Russians until the APU in
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this location in a counteroffensive.That way
they will at least have a chance to escape.
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But in the near future we cannot talk about
such a change in the actions of the AFU in
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these locations. There are other, more
priority areas with forming conditions.
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Although, the situation on the
front is changing unpredictably.
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"Svatove".
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Full fire control of the R-66 route
from Svatove to Kreminna significantly
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complicates the life of the Russian
occupants. We can directly say that
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a section of this logistic artery is not
available to them for safe and free use.
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In turn, I would not consider Swatove
and Kreminna in a single bundle. I refer
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more to the combined location of the
Rubizhne-Sievierodonetsk-Lysychansk,
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which can be released through
Bilogorovka. But not now.
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Not now, but after Svatovo,
where, with a certain caution,
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but I can talk about the first signs of
the forming operational encirclement.
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I emphasize, to avoid misunderstanding, only signs
so far, not the formed operational encirclement.
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And this is very encouraging, because Svatove
may well repeat the story of Izyum or Liman,
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around which when the encirclement began to
form, it hastened the escape of the occupants.
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But with Svatove, things can be more spectacular.
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First of all, the Russian forces will have to flee
from this small town all the way to Starobilsk,
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because they will not be able to be fixed on the
whole section of the P-07, with the exception of
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Mostki, but in the case of a cascading collapse
of the defense, even those will not save them.
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In addition, pressure will form from the north
and the issue with the above-mentioned combination
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Kremennaia-Rubezhnoye-Severodonetsk-Lisichansk
will be solved many times faster than before.
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Therefore, Svatovo is the key to the
liberation of most of Luhansk Oblast.
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And most importantly, the conditions for this
process are taking more and more shape every day.
5095
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