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Lugansk region. Svatove.
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Do you know what a unit
loses combat effectiveness?
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It is when a unit suffers losses of 30%
or more, both in personnel and equipment.
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Some time ago I told you about the fact that
almost all units of Russian troops are incomplete.
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Virtually all of them. This
is due to the fact that they
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are unable to perform full rotation and
withdrawal to restore combat readiness.
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In the last month and a half, the return
to combat readiness of the Russian troops
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in the combat zone has consisted
solely of resupply of personnel,
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primarily new recruits without experience,
and of replenishing forces on the spot.
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That is, there was no standard withdrawal
of the broken units with the subsequent
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replacement of them with more fresh, fully
staffed, and was simply filled with live meat.
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And all because the Russian Army simply does not
have any fresh and regular fully manned units.
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Thus, for the last month and a half
the units in the combat zone that
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require restoration of combat readiness
have been filled with minced meat of
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new recruits and were considered
to be replenished, combat-ready!
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But the consumption of minced meat in the category
of "recruit" is very rapid and now, in the Svatov
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location, Russian troops have a difficult
situation. Units of 55 motorized rifle brigade
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and 3 motorized rifle division have a loss of
combat capability above 30%. And not even 40%, and
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a little higher. Well, let’s just say some units
are 60% nonoperational in personnel and equipment.
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And all this should hold back the
counterattack of the Ukrainian armed
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forces in the direction of Svatove? And then
there is winter on the horizon. Logistics,
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logistical support and other incomprehensible
things are beyond everyday perception.
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I do not know how it will be in reality, but in
my humble opinion by the end of 2022 there will
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be a cascading collapse of the occupation
troops' defense all the way to Starobilsk.
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Further the Ukrainian troops will have to avoid
entering the territories occupied since 2014,
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there is a probability that they will be jammed
with the old positions from the south and the
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border from the north. Therefore, it is more
likely that there will be a temporary halt
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on the Starobilsk line with further
destruction of the enemy's logistics.
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It is behind him that the occupiers are
trying to create defensive positions.
3600
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