Original subtitles

Lugansk region. Svatove.

Do you know what a unit loses combat effectiveness?

It is when a unit suffers losses of 30% or more, both in personnel and equipment.

Some time ago I told you about the fact that almost all units of Russian troops are incomplete.

Virtually all of them. This is due to the fact that they

are unable to perform full rotation and withdrawal to restore combat readiness.

In the last month and a half, the return to combat readiness of the Russian troops

in the combat zone has consisted solely of resupply of personnel,

primarily new recruits without experience, and of replenishing forces on the spot.

That is, there was no standard withdrawal of the broken units with the subsequent

replacement of them with more fresh, fully staffed, and was simply filled with live meat.

And all because the Russian Army simply does not have any fresh and regular fully manned units.

Thus, for the last month and a half the units in the combat zone that

require restoration of combat readiness have been filled with minced meat of

new recruits and were considered to be replenished, combat-ready!

But the consumption of minced meat in the category of "recruit" is very rapid and now, in the Svatov

location, Russian troops have a difficult situation. Units of 55 motorized rifle brigade

and 3 motorized rifle division have a loss of combat capability above 30%. And not even 40%, and

a little higher. Well, let’s just say some units are 60% nonoperational in personnel and equipment.

And all this should hold back the counterattack of the Ukrainian armed

forces in the direction of Svatove? And then there is winter on the horizon. Logistics,

logistical support and other incomprehensible things are beyond everyday perception.

I do not know how it will be in reality, but in my humble opinion by the end of 2022 there will

be a cascading collapse of the occupation troops' defense all the way to Starobilsk.

Further the Ukrainian troops will have to avoid entering the territories occupied since 2014,

there is a probability that they will be jammed with the old positions from the south and the

border from the north. Therefore, it is more likely that there will be a temporary halt

on the Starobilsk line with further destruction of the enemy's logistics.

It is behind him that the occupiers are trying to create defensive positions.