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So, the right bank has been released
completely. The administrative center
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of the "Kherson" region has been moved to
Genichesk, according to the Russian version,
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but even there they are already slowly
beginning to wind down and evacuate further.
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In theory, it is necessary to move it somewhere
outside of Ukraine, the APU will not go there.
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If to measure from the river Dnieper
- the 80 km zone on the left bank is a
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zone of attack by Haimars, the 40 km zone
is a zone of total hit by the artillery.
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It will be difficult to fortify
there - the steppes, the lowlands,
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the Ukrainians now have a height advantage
on the right bank. A new Russian offensive
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on Kherson is impossible in principle, one
might as well plan an offensive on London.
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The AFU is releasing a large number of reserves
- no need now to defend Nikolaev, Odessa, the
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whole southern direction. The question is where
to? Well, here everything is also quite obvious.
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The most obvious solution is to
strike at Melitopol from Zaporizhzhya,
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cut the front and isolate the southern and
northern flanks of the Russian grouping.
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The land corridor to Crimea would then cease to
exist, and if the Crimean bridge is struck again,
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the peninsula could be completely cut
off from supplies of arms and supplies.
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The feeling is that Crimea can be
liberated even faster than Donetsk.
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In the Donbass, it is possible
to strengthen the group,
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finally deprive the enemy of hope to take
Bahmut, and to survive Swatovo and Kremennaya.
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And there are all kinds of options - or exit
to the border with the Russian Federation in
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the direction, say Belovodsk, or along the sea
from Melitopol to Primorsky-Berdyansk-Mariupol.
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Or all together. Winter and frozen roads will
only increase the mobility of Ukrainian troops.
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The main thing here is to avoid long pauses
if possible - Moscow needs them now like air,
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they have terrible problems with prepared
reserves and equipment. You cannot give them time,
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especially since the initiative is in
the hands of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
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Here is a clear example of how
the initiative works in practice.
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Since the Russian Armed Forces are forced to
adjust to the Armed Forces (as Ukrainians are
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advancing), not all of whom the Armed
Forces of the Russian Federation were
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able to withdraw from the west bank will be
transferred from the south to other directions,
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as they are really afraid of a jerk of
the Ukrainian forces towards the Crimea.
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But the Ukrainian Armed Forces can be sure that
there will be no offensive against Nikolayev,
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Krivoy Rog, Odessa, etc. with maximum
probability now. This means that Ukraine
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can move its forces from the south to
other directions as much as possible.
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This is just an example, but it shows the
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advantages of the initiative and why
it is important to seize and hold it.
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The initiative is half the battle. The Russian
occupiers have already lost their initiative.
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