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After fleeing from the right bank to
the left bank, the Russian occupiers
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have faced a number of problems, the main one
being the problem of supplying their units.
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About 40 Battalion tactical groups
of the Russian occupation troops
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are now concentrated on the southern
bridgehead. It is an impressive number,
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but it is also of questionable quality, as
almost all the units are understaffed. And
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the speech is not even in the questions of manning
due to losses, but a critical lack of equipment.
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Running away from the right bank, Putin's
troops abandoned a large amount of equipment
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there which they simply had no time to
transport and evacuate to the left bank.
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And now, whichever unit you look at, there is at
least 30% incompleteness, and on average 50%-60%.
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In connection with this problem, these
units need to be restored by increasing
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the intensity of supply of forces and means
through the transport hub of the Crimean
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territory. Except that the whole point is
that all deliveries of Logistical Support
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from Russia to the South are now carried out by
just one railroad line on the Crimean bridge,
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which is not fully operational in reverse mode.
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Today the problem of supply in this mode begins
to manifest itself brighter and brighter.
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There is still a margin of safety
in terms of reserves on the very
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logistical support of the Crimea,
but it does not cover the needs.
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That is, the degradation of the supply
system of advanced units on the left bank
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is now beginning to manifest itself, which
manifested itself in July on the right bank
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and became a bold marker of their imminent
flight, as the unsolvable problem expands.
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The only solution that the Russian
occupiers see from the emerging
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situation is the establishment of
railway supply lines from the East.
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But, as long as they do not occupy part of
Donetsk, namely, Ugldar, Bahmut, Avdeevka,
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the implementation of such a
plan should not be thought about.
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To implement such a plan, the Russians can
allocate 10-15 Battalion tactical groups from
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those concentrated in the South, but here again
there is a dilemma - they need to be completed.
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And this requires time. And while they
wait, the APU begin to target the South,
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covering even locations in
the northwest of Crimea.
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Thus, the occupiers not only need to
make deliveries to restore the combat
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effectiveness of the units that
managed to escape from Kherson,
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but also to compensate for
the daily considerable losses.
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To summarize, I would like to note that wherever
there is a decline in the effectiveness of the
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supply and control system of forward units,
the collapse of defense is inevitable.
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And this process is already taking place in
the southern bridgehead of the Russian forces.
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By their flight from the right
bank they only accelerated it.
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