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I will give some specifics on such a notion
as a "shortage" of artillery ammunition for
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the Russian occupiers and why they are doing
poorly in the short run.
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A shortage of air-, sea- and land-based missile
weapons began to show itself in Russia at
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the turn of April and May.
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On the other hand, shortage of ammunition
for artillery, both barrel and reactive, began
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to show the first signs in early June.
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This is due to the fact that Russia at the
time of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine
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had in warehouses and storage according to
various estimates of 15 to 20 million shots.
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It was by June that the warehouses with the
short-haul supply, Belgorod, Kursk, Rostov,
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and Voronezh regions had exhausted themselves.
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Currently, they perform only a transit function.
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At this moment the ammunition crisis in Russia
is snowballing and growing at an increasing
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rate.
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As I said earlier, Russian troops in the offensive
and in the defense always use the "rampart
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of fire" tactic, including the use of artillery.
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To carry out an effective offensive in Ukraine
the occupiers need the potential of 50 thousand
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- 70 thousand shots per day.
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To carry out effective defense, this indicator
averages 30 thousand - 40 thousand shots per
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day.
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Currently, they can provide themselves only
20 thousand shots per day, which is completely
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lacking even for defense.
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To be more precise, they do not have the capacity
to mount an effective offensive or to defend
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fully.
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If you do not consider the Kherson direction,
then 20 thousand shots per day - this is still
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2 times more than the artillery shots of the
Ukrainian forces.
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But, they have a considerable advantage in
range and accuracy.
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In turn, the number of shots the enemy will
fall.
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Using solely the potential of its production
from scratch, Russia can provide its troops
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with a potential of only 3-5 thousand a day.
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In 2023, the Russian army will inevitably
face exactly this figure.
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And even supplies of ammunition from North
Korea, which are already entering Russian
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territory, will not help them in any way.
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I shall cite a purely situational example.
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Let's imagine an echelon of 10 cars, although
the first and so far the only one arriving
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in Russia from North Korea was only 3 cars.
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But still.
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Such a train can carry an average of 500 tons
of supplies.
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Let's take the 152 mm shell for example.
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They, depending on the type, may be of different
weight, 43 kg or 46 kg or more.
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But, for simplicity of understanding and calculation,
let's take 50 kg.
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That is, one such echelon is about 10,000
rounds.
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Today Russia is carrying out an average of
20,000 rounds a day.
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So, the echelon will be driven more than 10
thousand kilometers to gut its potential in
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half a day?
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Apparently, the Russian command is in such
a desperate position that it is willing to
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ship ammunition from North Korea just to somehow
maintain the firepower capacity of its troops.
4643
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