All language subtitles for 05 - Challenge Perform a Bayesian analysis

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Would you like to inspect the original subtitles? These are the user uploaded subtitles that are being translated: 1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:05,002 (fun, upbeat music) 2 00:00:05,002 --> 00:00:06,009 - Throughout this chapter I have shown you 3 00:00:06,009 --> 00:00:10,001 how to perform Bayesian analysis in Excel. 4 00:00:10,001 --> 00:00:12,004 In this movie I would like to challenge you 5 00:00:12,004 --> 00:00:14,003 to solve a problem on your own 6 00:00:14,003 --> 00:00:17,002 using the techniques that you learned earlier. 7 00:00:17,002 --> 00:00:21,004 Let's assume that a museum is reviewing objects 8 00:00:21,004 --> 00:00:23,000 in a particular collection 9 00:00:23,000 --> 00:00:25,001 and it has determined, unfortunately 10 00:00:25,001 --> 00:00:28,003 that only about 70% of the items 11 00:00:28,003 --> 00:00:30,000 in that collection are genuine 12 00:00:30,000 --> 00:00:32,001 and the rest are counterfeit. 13 00:00:32,001 --> 00:00:36,000 Also, it believes based on its experience 14 00:00:36,000 --> 00:00:38,008 that the appraisers and curators will be correct 15 00:00:38,008 --> 00:00:41,005 in their identification 90% of the time 16 00:00:41,005 --> 00:00:44,004 whether an object is genuine or counterfeit. 17 00:00:44,004 --> 00:00:48,000 So your goal is to fill in this worksheet 18 00:00:48,000 --> 00:00:50,007 and to determine the probability 19 00:00:50,007 --> 00:00:53,006 that an item is genuine when reported genuine 20 00:00:53,006 --> 00:00:56,009 and also when it is reported counterfeit 21 00:00:56,009 --> 00:00:59,000 and actually counterfeit. 22 00:00:59,000 --> 00:01:00,006 I hope you enjoy this problem. 23 00:01:00,006 --> 00:01:01,008 And I will come back 24 00:01:01,008 --> 00:01:04,000 in the next movie to show you how I would solve it. 1805

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