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(fun, upbeat music)
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- Throughout this chapter I have shown you
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how to perform Bayesian analysis in Excel.
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In this movie I would like to challenge you
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to solve a problem on your own
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using the techniques that you learned earlier.
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Let's assume that a museum is reviewing objects
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in a particular collection
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and it has determined, unfortunately
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that only about 70% of the items
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in that collection are genuine
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and the rest are counterfeit.
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Also, it believes based on its experience
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that the appraisers and curators will be correct
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in their identification 90% of the time
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whether an object is genuine or counterfeit.
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So your goal is to fill in this worksheet
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and to determine the probability
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that an item is genuine when reported genuine
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and also when it is reported counterfeit
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and actually counterfeit.
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I hope you enjoy this problem.
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And I will come back
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in the next movie to show you how I would solve it.
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