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okay so hopefully you should now be starting to get quite familiar with the
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supply and demand concepts that we have looked at so far so let's do a quick you
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know two-minute crash course on supply and demand right so typically with
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demand we have kind of two ways that we look for it we either have a range
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created demand where price is stuck within a range we then see that rapid
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breakout to the upside and as price initiates
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to the upside and we can clearly see that somewhere within that range demand
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then step into the market or we have pivot created demand where we
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essentially see a sharp sell before the buy as price and rapidly expands to the
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upside in both cases creating um demand where of course you know we can overdraw
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the zones from there um and we would look for price to either return to those
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zones to then look for buyers to catch that next polish leg and so on with the
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pivot created demand there however if you were to draw on you know with all of
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those demand zones within the market they're pretty much going to be
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everywhere because as we know price is constantly causing imbalances
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between supply and demand um otherwise the market would never really move
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anywhere right it would just stay in a range pretty much for
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eternity so what was the main thing that we've looked at so far
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to essentially validate uh where we're going to see those strong demand zones
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well the main thing that we've looked at is those structural zones right so we
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want to see where demand stepped in to cause a break of structure so in terms
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of continuation let's say we're in a british market and
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price is creating a series of higher highs higher lows and then higher highs
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right so it caused a break of structure we're trying to then identify where did
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that demand step in around here that led to the bullish move to cause that higher
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high to cause that break of structure right so we'd look for a zone somewhere
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within here and then that then validates that this area of demand whether it's
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range created pivot created a single candle or fractal refinement whatever
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we're just trying to use that break of structure to to increase the probability
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that this is a strong zone so that when price returns it will hold and it will
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give us a sustained leg for us to try and buy and ride that next bullish leg
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to the upside right uh and then the same for a reversal so if price was making
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lower lows and lower highs in a bearish market but then suddenly uh price makes
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a higher high right so we get that breaker structure to the upside we take
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out that lower high to form a higher high we then look for where did that
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demand step into the market that then helps us validate this potentially is a
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strong zone because it caused a break of structure takes a lot of money to do
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that right so then when price returns to that area of demand we can then hope
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that that zone will hold for us to capsize on that next bullish leg and
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then very quickly we have the same for supply right so price would be in the
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range it would initiate out that range to the downside that would then give us
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our range created supply where we would then look for price to pull back and
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potentially make another bearish leg or we would have the the buy before the
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sale right pivot created supply and again we would hope that when price
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returns to it it will continue but we don't just want to trade any old supply
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zone that we see in the market we want to look for what ones that cause breaks
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of structure so for a continuation that would be in a bearish market where
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prices making lower lows and lower highs and a lower low so it obviously caused a
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break of structure to to form that lower low so then we want to look at whether
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that supply step in the market right to form that lower high and then that's
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where we can look for price to then potentially continue that bearish leg
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and then again over a reversal if we're in a bullish market with price creating
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higher highs and higher lows and then price then formed a lower low right
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causing that break of stretches the downside causing that first initial
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change of character we would then try and anticipate where that supply stepped
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in the market and then look to sell from this area here right because those areas
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of supply caused the break of structure and the same for demand so that's kind
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of the the first out of two ways right that we've really looked to try and
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validate where those strong zones are in the market right all those things being
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equal we're trying to identify those areas of supply and demand that led to a
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break of structure so as you guys probably know from the the
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title of this video and from what we've already mentioned
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in some of the earlier theory videos the second main way we look at is what is
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called a flip zone so let's just slowly go through this now so
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this first example here of the supply and obviously the demand this is pretty
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much just what we've gone through so this is our standard sort of structural
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zone scenario that we look at so in the first case with supply
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what do we have we have price uh moving to the upside right in a bullish
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market with a higher high pulls back to form a higher low and then makes a
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higher high but then what happens price falls down to make a lower low so we get
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that change of character right we get that breaker stretches the downside the
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change of character is just the first time we see that lower low right after a
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bullish market and then essentially that creates an area of supply where we wait
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for price to pull back in and then anywhere within that supply zone we can
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look to get short with our stops somewhere above the high to try and
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capitalize on that next bearish leg so this red box um obviously represents the
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supply zone now i've just drawn it on the most unrefined way so just taking
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the entire range taking the entire right the by just drawing the supply and on
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that range right the entire buy before the cell that leads to that change of
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character so that's the most unrefined way but of course we could look we're
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trying to identify to the pivot right or potentially even a single candle or
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potentially even you know refine it to a fractal wick or or so on and so forth
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right um it's a you know it doesn't matter so
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much now i just want you to understand why i've drawn the box that way but this
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is just kind of that standard structural zone
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entry model that we've been looking at right
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where does that supply lead to that break of structure and whether it's a
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continuation or in this case you know that that first initial change of
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character then we can look to sell from the supply that led to that break
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of structure and then the exact same thing for demand right um we're just
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looking for where did demand step in to cause that break of structure to the
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upside and in this case i've just drawn it on the entire range right the last
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cell before the buy and then we look to buy it anywhere within that range but of
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course we can then uh refine that zone if i can get my
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mouse to grab it for me i'll have to play around with that right it's either
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down to the pivot one candle fractal refinement so on and so forth right we
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know the more refined we get the more we can increase our risk toward right
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because we can enter in lower but potentially we may get missed right so
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that's essentially just our standard entry model that we've looked at so far
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now the next thing that we can start to introduce um is obviously flip zones to
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increase um the probability or
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just another way right of validating what may potentially be a strong zone so
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in this case in its most simplest form all we are looking at is where supply
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and demand are interacting where they essentially meet they have a bit of a
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battle and then one of them essentially
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overpowers the other one and takes control so we're not just you know
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before we've only been looking at you know what causes the break of structure
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but now we're looking at where does supply end up taking out demand and
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where does demand end up taking out supply
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so again just to make that clear before we've purely just been looking at
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what causes breaks of structure right we've just been looking at what leads to
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breaks in market structure but now we're looking at what leads to
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uh taking out demand you know where is the supply that took out demand and
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where is the demand that took out supply okay so let's look at this first case
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so in this case all right prices make it higher high higher lows higher high
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right so obviously for price to make that higher high what did it do it
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caused a breakage structure of this height so somewhere within this leg
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demand stepped in to cause that higher high
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so that's what's denoted by this red box we have some demand
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so at this point right in the market obviously we can't see anything else
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just have to imagine that's not there but as price is pulling back into our
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demand zone all those things considered what would
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we expect well we would expect the continuation of that bullish order flow
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rate we would expect this demand zone here to continue price upwards to make a
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higher high right it needs to break this high here get a break of structure and
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make a higher high because that is what this demand zone's job is it's simple
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job is for price to create a higher high to fulfill those buy orders and then
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overpower supply to make a higher high but we will often see in the market
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his price will come in it will fill those buy orders it will then attempt to
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make a higher high right so we'll have a reaction
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but it will fail to make a higher high so it will fail to break this uh high
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here and then what will happen is price will then come down
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it will take out where that reaction formed the start of their actions that
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is what fr stands for a failed reaction all right so as soon as price goes below
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that dotted line right as soon as that happens the reaction has now failed
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which means demand has failed to do its job right so the minute we are below
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that dotted line literally the very micro pip that price
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moves below uh where that initial reaction started
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where demand kicked in to try to make the higher high if it doesn't take out
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this high here and it fails to do its job and price starts to come back down
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the minute we break below that reaction means we get a failed reaction right so
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that means that demand is now failing and then price down moves down lower we
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actually then take out the low so this is where we get the change of character
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which is essentially what we're looking over here so now what do we have we have
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demand failing right and we also have a market structural low being taken
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so what that means is a lot of supply has stepped in somewhere to take out
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demand and to take out the structural low right so you can see here all we
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looked at was the structural logo whereas over here we have more
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confidence because we not only do we have structure being taken out but we
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actually have that demand being taken out okay
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so then when price moves down and we have the failed reaction and we have the
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change of character we have that structural load going somewhere up here
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supply stepped in so where do we draw that supply zone just delete this in a
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minute right basically anywhere within that buy right where the reaction
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started that buy before the cell that is our supply zone okay so the
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reason why i've drawn it with a what looks like a bit of a weird box you guys
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might not have seen that at this stage it's just something that i use
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this tool here because essentially this box just represents supply but it's
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a nice tool to use because it has a line in the equilibrium right that 50 level
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the eq and what do we know we haven't talked about entries in a lot of depth
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but we can enter anywhere within the zone but one of the things that we can
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do is we can always look to enter on the eq just to increase our risk toward okay
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so don't worry massively about this at the
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minute right i've spoken a little bit about it a little bit of depth before
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but you know the main point for now i want you guys to just concentrate on is
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that we can enter anywhere within the zone okay so don't worry too much about
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how this box is drawn and we'll talk about this in a little more detail but
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essentially it's just using um this fib tool here i'll just show you where it's
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drawn actually now let's see which one it is that i use i believe it
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would be one of the favorite ones so it's not in here
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okay so it's a parallel channel is the one that i'm using in this one on the
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left hand side so in the trend lines if you say parallel channel and i'll just
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show you the settings on that so how the way you draw this is you would click at
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the base of the candle wherever you wanted to draw it right and then you
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would hold it across if you hold shift it will draw a straight line right we
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want to have it nice and accurate nice straight line and then you click again
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and then if you move it up to basically the height of the range that you want to
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draw it and then boom there you have your supply zone but the reason why it's
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useful is just because it gives that nice equilibrium level if you want to
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enter in the middle of the zone and if i just show you the settings
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for that essentially that's how i've got it if you want to copy uh that template
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but for now i said all i want you to focus on is
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that this essentially just is another way of drawing a supply zone okay
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so yeah and that's it this is basically the highest probability way that we have
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of looking for supply and demand and essentially
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it's just a flip plus a chalk that's the most simple way i can describe it okay
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and all that means is that we have demand and then it flips to supply
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because supply is now in control and it also causes that change of character so
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that's why it's called a flip and a chalk so here all we have is a chock
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because we've just been looking at market structure being taken out right
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and then we look for what caused that change of character what caused that
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break of the the higher the low and then we look for price to come back into it
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right but here we do have the exact same thing
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we have the chalk but before the chalk what happens well we see that battle
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between supply and demand and that's what key the key thing that you need to
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see here is you need to see this reaction occur because you need to see
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the battle occurring if the battle doesn't occur then we're not as
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interested right what we want to see is this happen because what it means is
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that demand tried to hold and it tried to make the higher high but the fact
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that that reaction then failed and came down you have to think about what does
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that mean in reality but what it means is that this supplier must be really
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strong because this demand was significant right because if price
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like here right it just goes up and it just melts straight down yes it did take
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out a strong low right because that low should hold and it should make a higher
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high but if price is coming straight down
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maybe actually there wasn't that much that there wasn't that much demand in
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this overall area so when supply comes down here maybe this means that this red
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supply zone actually isn't that strong and then sometimes what can happen is
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price can come back in you can get short and it can keep going up
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so remember the whole point of this whole game we're playing is we're just
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trying to validate supply and demand zones to try and see
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which ones are strong and which ones are going to hold right so part of that is
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finding our supply zone and going what did this supply zone achieve
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did this supply zone achieve any anything significant
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so in this case with the standard entry we've been looking at in structural
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zones instead of just drawing on any old supply zone right where price initiated
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out of a range or a pivot what we look for is what are the ones that cause
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breaks of structure right because that is something significant in the market
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so we hope then that when price returns it was a lot of supply that had to step
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in to take out that low therefore this supply zone should hold and we should
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see that next leg down this is the same concept instead of just
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taking out a structural low it also had a battle with demand where actually this
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demand you know there was a lot of buy orders in here and it did try to do it
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short it tried to take out this high and make a higher high so then when supply
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steps in and overpowers it and it flips to supply that's in control
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that's just another sort of tick in the box to try and tell us that actually it
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did take a lot of supply in the market to you know eradicate all of these buy
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orders to overpower demand here and cause that break of market structure
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okay so that's what you're always trying to ask yourself is what did this supply
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zone achieve is it strong yes it is because it took out a strong level of
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demand you can see that demand tried to hold and it took out a structural low so
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that's like two ticks two ticks in the box right compared to over here where it
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was just kind of one tick in the box right if that makes sense
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so yeah let me try keep it super simple
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again so we have price making higher highs and high lows price pulls back
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into demand it tries to do its job it tries to make a higher high it fails to
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take out this high so it fails to make a higher high then as soon as price comes
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down at this point here as soon as we move below that dotted line below where
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the reaction initiated from that means the reaction has now failed it's failed
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to do its job but then when price goes even further and it takes out the actual
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structural low and we get that change of character
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we now have both of those you know those criteria ticked off the
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box right so then we can then mark out that by to cell range we can take the
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whole range like this we can just like any old supply zone right we can refine
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it to the last pivot we could refine it to a single candle
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right within that pullback or we could even you know do the fractal refinement
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so on and so forth right the same rules always apply but for the sake of the
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example i'm just going to keep it to the whole range right just to show you that
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you can get short anywhere within that range right it's all valid anywhere
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within that range but the more refined you are right morris reward but more
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increased probability of missing the trade okay
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and that is how we look to get short so that's essentially your flip and your
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truck looking for that battle between buyers and sellers looking for the
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breaker structure and then that's our area of supply that we can then look to
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00:15:34,320 --> 00:15:37,920
get short from and then the exact same thing with demand right
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00:15:37,920 --> 00:15:42,000
in this case it's a change of character surprises making lower lows lower high
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and a lower low so for price to cause that lower low to break that structure
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there right we look for the supply that caused price to make that lower low so
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then what is the blind expectation when price comes back to the supply zone well
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we would expect price to pull back into it and then for supply to do its job it
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should make a lower low right it should cause this load to be taken out it
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should cause a break of structure and it should cause a lower low if supply is to
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do its job but in this case it tries to do its job but then somewhere within
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here demand steps in to then cause the reaction to fail right as soon as we're
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above that dotted line where the reaction initiated from right this
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circle here as soon as we're above it now you know that the reaction failed
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and then price continues to go up so now we also have structure failing right the
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bearish structure is failing so we now have bullish structure we also have a
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failed reaction so what that means is we now have a strong area of demand because
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not only did it overpower supply but it also caused structure to fail and we got
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that higher high so exact same thing again right as we looked up here but the
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opposite so then we can mark out this whole cell before the buy range as our
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area of demand or of course we can refine it you know to a pivot to a
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single candle or a fractal refinement um yeah so on and so forth and that's it
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really so before right like i said again we're
276
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just gonna keep going over this and just hammering it in right until we really
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just drill this into our subconscious but all we looked at before this lesson
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so far was essentially you know your standard break of structure right in
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this case obviously it's reversal but it works the same for a continuation we're
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just looking for where does supply cause a lower low right
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it caused a break of structure we look for price to come back in and then we
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look to sell because we hope that it was strong enough because it caused that
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brake structure same as demand right it took out a lower high to form a higher
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high so that's one way of validating a strong level here we have the exact same
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it does cause that change of character but it also takes out demand
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now how do we know you know
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what again the thing that's really important about this
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and it can be quite subtle in the live market is you need to see the reaction
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for it to be a flip because if price just does this right it comes up yes it
290
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creates demand to make a higher high but if price just comes straight down right
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just in pretty much a straight line like multiple candles that just come down and
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you don't see any reaction then that is not a flip
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because there is no you know you need to see that battle you need to see that
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reaction and the reason why you want to see that reaction is what i was saying
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earlier is because you want to know that actually this demand was somewhat
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significant that there was strong buying pressure in here that price did try to
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make a higher high but then the supply stepped in to smash through okay and
298
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that is the subtle but key difference right so your flip plus your chalk this
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00:18:18,400 --> 00:18:21,919
really is kind of your a plus setup in terms of
300
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your execution entry in terms of wanting to see not only the reaction failing
301
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right so seeing the supply to demand flip in this case but also that it leads
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to that change of character that leads to a break of structure at the same time
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right because that is essentially your structural zone and your flip zone
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combined together so then when price comes back within here that is a very
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high probability zone okay now the final one we're going to
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look at is a bit more aggressive all right so this is your a plus setup
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this is the best this is a bit more aggressive because we only have the flip
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so you can see here this is only a flip this is only a shock right but this is
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obviously both of them okay pretty simple stuff
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um so what's the subtle difference here because sometimes this can be a little
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bit tricky to see in the live market the difference between them but it's very
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it's very very similar so we have price creating a higher high pulls back to
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form a higher low then we make a higher high so obviously to cause that breaker
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structure to the upside to form that higher high right we must most likely
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have a demand zone that caused a higher high so then when price comes back in
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it if demand is going to do its job what
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should it do it should form a higher high it should take out this high but if
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price goes up higher you see the reaction happen remember seeing the
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reaction is so key you need to see price trying to make that higher high so that
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it validates that there is an area of demand here so as price goes up higher
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and then as soon as it comes down and as soon as it's below that dotted line
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right below where the initial reaction essentially originated from where that
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00:19:44,880 --> 00:19:49,120
reaction initiated from as soon as price comes below it as long as price never
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took out that high right so it didn't do its job the minute we are below that
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dotted line you now know that the reaction has
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failed okay so what that means is just like before
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this whole area this buy before the cell once we go below that failed reaction
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this whole area denoted by the box is your area of supply that took out demand
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okay so what you can see in the difference
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here is price doesn't cause a change of character yet right so it's still
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technically within the demand zone right if i draw the the zone across it's still
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within here right so you there could be still some
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00:20:22,480 --> 00:20:26,720
demand orders lower in the zone that now could be filled and it could go up now
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00:20:26,720 --> 00:20:30,240
right there could be this is the risk of this setup there could be some nice buy
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00:20:30,240 --> 00:20:33,919
orders left within here right that wasn't initially tapped into from that
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00:20:33,919 --> 00:20:37,200
first initial reaction and this is the risk because you could be looking to get
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00:20:37,200 --> 00:20:41,679
short but price price could go up higher from here okay because what we don't
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have the change of character we don't have uh that entire supply zone failing
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right like we did over here before price comes
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back in for you to short so this is why this is riskier because you only have
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00:20:52,640 --> 00:20:55,840
the flip you only have the failed reaction you don't have the change of
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00:20:55,840 --> 00:21:00,240
character to truly truly give you that extra confirmation that price has taken
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00:21:00,240 --> 00:21:04,400
out the entire supply zone and then we come back in and we go okay
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00:21:04,400 --> 00:21:07,679
so hopefully it's a bit kind of you know you can see why this is riskier because
345
00:21:07,679 --> 00:21:10,640
you're you're trying to get short and there's the potential that price
346
00:21:10,640 --> 00:21:14,720
could fill some orders within here and it could go up higher okay so obviously
347
00:21:14,720 --> 00:21:18,240
again this will come with testing what makes most sense to you and just
348
00:21:18,240 --> 00:21:22,880
time in the market for whether you are happy to take just flips or if you want
349
00:21:22,880 --> 00:21:26,000
to see a flip and a change of character right you want to see that broken
350
00:21:26,000 --> 00:21:30,400
structure as well so you know the obvious advice i can give you guys
351
00:21:30,400 --> 00:21:34,640
is as especially as you're starting out only focus on the flip with the change
352
00:21:34,640 --> 00:21:38,640
of character so stay away from just flips at the start because they are much
353
00:21:38,640 --> 00:21:41,919
lower probability they are a lot more aggressive right because you're getting
354
00:21:41,919 --> 00:21:44,640
in where price could just go higher it could fill up some orders within here
355
00:21:44,640 --> 00:21:48,400
and go so you may take more losses now as you get more experienced and you're
356
00:21:48,400 --> 00:21:51,679
good at picking higher time frame areas of value and you're good at putting all
357
00:21:51,679 --> 00:21:54,320
of the confluence together then you can get a bit more aggressive and
358
00:21:54,320 --> 00:21:57,520
potentially look at flips on their own if you want to because sometimes what
359
00:21:57,520 --> 00:22:01,120
will happen is just this exact sample here where we'll get the failed reaction
360
00:22:01,120 --> 00:22:04,400
price will come back in you may go okay i don't want to get short from here i
361
00:22:04,400 --> 00:22:07,760
want to wait for the change of character first and then price can just go right
362
00:22:07,760 --> 00:22:10,799
and then it doesn't always come back up to this level and you may have to look
363
00:22:10,799 --> 00:22:14,400
for entries further down which obviously isn't always ideal so you may not get an
364
00:22:14,400 --> 00:22:17,679
entry that's okay you don't have to enter every move remember but just
365
00:22:17,679 --> 00:22:20,640
sometimes you will miss the move right from the level that you may want to get
366
00:22:20,640 --> 00:22:24,400
into if you wait for this extra confidence such as something that you
367
00:22:24,400 --> 00:22:28,240
know you like again right you're gonna have to just get this with time and what
368
00:22:28,240 --> 00:22:31,600
you are comfortable with so yeah that pretty much wraps it up in
369
00:22:31,600 --> 00:22:34,240
terms of kind of the flip zones
370
00:22:34,240 --> 00:22:36,960
this is obviously what we've been looking at so far just a very clear
371
00:22:36,960 --> 00:22:39,919
structural zone we're just looking at where supply demand led to a breakage
372
00:22:39,919 --> 00:22:44,080
structure to try and validate the zone this is the exact same thing
373
00:22:44,080 --> 00:22:48,000
except we look for the battle between supply and demand first right that the
374
00:22:48,000 --> 00:22:52,080
major key here is to see that reaction we want to see demand try to do its job
375
00:22:52,080 --> 00:22:56,080
but then supply step in cause a reaction to fail and the change of character and
376
00:22:56,080 --> 00:22:59,440
then we look to get short when price comes back into there same for demand
377
00:22:59,440 --> 00:23:02,960
here we're only looking for the reaction to fail so that what that means in
378
00:23:02,960 --> 00:23:06,559
reality right is the minute that price is below that dotted line below where
379
00:23:06,559 --> 00:23:10,400
the reaction initiated right you can then draw your supply zone on right this
380
00:23:10,400 --> 00:23:14,880
box here right and you can basically get ready to get to sell whether you put
381
00:23:14,880 --> 00:23:18,480
your order or you wait for price to come in and you just sell it market
382
00:23:18,480 --> 00:23:22,080
um but you're essentially getting short before we have the confirmation that
383
00:23:22,080 --> 00:23:25,280
price has taken out the low so you're running the risk that price could fill
384
00:23:25,280 --> 00:23:29,039
up some demand within here right lower in the zone and then it could be enough
385
00:23:29,039 --> 00:23:32,559
to actually go that's why it is riskier okay so now what we're going to do is
386
00:23:32,559 --> 00:23:35,679
we're just going to apply these flip zones
387
00:23:35,679 --> 00:23:38,960
just to that uh price action model that you guys should be very very familiar
388
00:23:38,960 --> 00:23:42,559
with now we'll quickly go over this and then um yeah then we'll hop onto the
389
00:23:42,559 --> 00:23:45,840
charts in the next lesson and we'll do a full walkthrough just to see how the
390
00:23:45,840 --> 00:23:52,400
theory actually applies uh in reality so what do we have here well let's just go
391
00:23:52,400 --> 00:23:55,600
through this so we have the four hour chart with this thick line um clearly
392
00:23:55,600 --> 00:23:59,360
bullish right so we are making a series of higher highs and higher lows so we
393
00:23:59,360 --> 00:24:03,440
come up into this old supply zone right from previous price action price then
394
00:24:03,440 --> 00:24:07,360
fills up that supply and it's enough to initiate a pullback so we get a swing
395
00:24:07,360 --> 00:24:11,520
pullback and then price forms a higher low and it moves to the upside and we
396
00:24:11,520 --> 00:24:15,120
get that break of structure right we get price forming a high high so what do we
397
00:24:15,120 --> 00:24:18,880
look at before because price uh calls that high high and cause that
398
00:24:18,880 --> 00:24:22,400
breaking structure that gives us that structural area of demand right so
399
00:24:22,400 --> 00:24:25,760
that's just standard and that is what this is but the slight difference here
400
00:24:25,760 --> 00:24:30,080
is that we understand that it's also a supply to demand flip which increases
401
00:24:30,080 --> 00:24:33,919
the probability even more because not only did it cause a break of structure
402
00:24:33,919 --> 00:24:38,880
what did it do it took out supply and the supply is valid because you can
403
00:24:38,880 --> 00:24:42,799
see the reaction right it tried to do its job it tried to form a lower low but
404
00:24:42,799 --> 00:24:46,799
what happened demand stepped in and caused price to fail because it didn't
405
00:24:46,799 --> 00:24:52,080
let supply do its job remember a supply zone supply zone's job is to
406
00:24:52,080 --> 00:24:55,520
try and form a lower low so if demand steps in before it can do that and
407
00:24:55,520 --> 00:25:00,480
causes a higher high then we have both a break of structure and we have a failed
408
00:25:00,480 --> 00:25:04,240
reaction we have supply flipping to demand demand is in control and that
409
00:25:04,240 --> 00:25:08,880
increases the probability of the zone so this zone is a flip and a chuck right
410
00:25:08,880 --> 00:25:12,400
so price continues its next swing leg it has a bit of a minor pullback and it
411
00:25:12,400 --> 00:25:15,760
goes up higher and then we come into another four-hour zone right so this
412
00:25:15,760 --> 00:25:19,039
could be a flip zone it you know it doesn't matter too much but price is in
413
00:25:19,039 --> 00:25:22,159
here so now what do we expect well we expect there's a possibility that we
414
00:25:22,159 --> 00:25:26,480
could now get a four-hour pullback right um into the discount of this zone and
415
00:25:26,480 --> 00:25:29,919
potentially to come down and mitigate that extreme demand zone that extreme
416
00:25:29,919 --> 00:25:33,679
flip zone so what can we do to
417
00:25:33,679 --> 00:25:36,960
increase the probability that this pullback is starting and that we're not
418
00:25:36,960 --> 00:25:40,880
going to get potentially short in a full signal because price could easily just
419
00:25:40,880 --> 00:25:45,760
pull back right and it could keep going up higher well we can wait for a four
420
00:25:45,760 --> 00:25:49,360
hour change of character to take out that four hour minor low right what is
421
00:25:49,360 --> 00:25:53,120
that four hour change of character most likely right it's not guaranteed
422
00:25:53,120 --> 00:25:57,200
but most likely going to be on a lower time frame say the m15 that four hour
423
00:25:57,200 --> 00:26:01,600
minor low is most likely going to be a m15 swing low right so when price then
424
00:26:01,600 --> 00:26:03,760
gives us that four hour change of character
425
00:26:03,760 --> 00:26:08,799
that is most likely going to be an m15 break of swing structure to the downside
426
00:26:08,799 --> 00:26:11,520
so we get a four-hour change of character which is most likely going to
427
00:26:11,520 --> 00:26:16,240
be now the 15-minute right the blue line being in a bearish trend right and that
428
00:26:16,240 --> 00:26:19,200
is when that gives us a lot of confirmation when this happens that
429
00:26:19,200 --> 00:26:23,200
potentially now the m15 is bearish to initiate that four-hour pullback right
430
00:26:23,200 --> 00:26:27,200
so that's not a full signal and that we don't go on to make higher highs
431
00:26:27,200 --> 00:26:31,120
now what can else can we use to increase the probability uh
432
00:26:31,120 --> 00:26:33,679
of this pullback occurring and for where we
433
00:26:33,679 --> 00:26:37,279
could potentially look to short well we can look for m15 supply that comes into
434
00:26:37,279 --> 00:26:40,880
the market so before we just looked at where did that supply cause that break
435
00:26:40,880 --> 00:26:44,640
of the swing low right then we get that structural supply zone and that is where
436
00:26:44,640 --> 00:26:47,200
we look to get short how can we increase that probability
437
00:26:47,200 --> 00:26:51,039
even more well now we understand what flip zones are right so in this
438
00:26:51,039 --> 00:26:54,320
four-hour leg up here where we had this four-hour minor pullback to then move to
439
00:26:54,320 --> 00:26:57,919
continue the swing leg right up into that supply zone it's very likely that
440
00:26:57,919 --> 00:27:01,679
that minor for our pullback if we were to jump down onto a 15-minute time frame
441
00:27:01,679 --> 00:27:05,520
uh was a m15 demand zone right that caused an m15
442
00:27:05,520 --> 00:27:08,159
higher high so when then price pulls back into that
443
00:27:08,159 --> 00:27:12,880
demand zone we want to look for was there a reaction did demand try to do
444
00:27:12,880 --> 00:27:16,559
its job did it try to form a higher high right as long as it doesn't take out
445
00:27:16,559 --> 00:27:20,240
that high and it fails to make a higher high and then price comes down the
446
00:27:20,240 --> 00:27:23,840
moment it breaks below that low there where the
447
00:27:23,840 --> 00:27:28,080
reaction initiates from right so we go below the dotted line we get that failed
448
00:27:28,080 --> 00:27:32,480
reaction we now know that it slightly supplies in control and this demand zone
449
00:27:32,480 --> 00:27:36,159
is failing but if we also get the change of character at the same time now we
450
00:27:36,159 --> 00:27:40,320
have a flip and a chalk right so that's now our a plus setup so then we can look
451
00:27:40,320 --> 00:27:44,080
for price to come back into the supply zone that not only caused a structural
452
00:27:44,080 --> 00:27:48,799
load to break but also closed uh cause significant demand to fail we now have
453
00:27:48,799 --> 00:27:53,200
that chalk and that flip that demand to supply flip right and now this is a high
454
00:27:53,200 --> 00:27:58,799
probability m15 zone to play the m15 bearish trend short
455
00:27:58,799 --> 00:28:02,720
to play that four hour pullback right and that is you know how we can validate
456
00:28:02,720 --> 00:28:05,760
those zones even more to play that and increase the probability that this will
457
00:28:05,760 --> 00:28:08,640
go and that it's not a full signal and we're not going to get stopped out if
458
00:28:08,640 --> 00:28:12,080
price was to continue higher okay so hopefully that makes sense then
459
00:28:12,080 --> 00:28:15,200
obviously price then has a deeper four-hour pullback into the discount of
460
00:28:15,200 --> 00:28:18,559
the leg down in towards our four-hour flip zone
461
00:28:18,559 --> 00:28:22,320
because remember this demand did what it took out the supply zone right it had
462
00:28:22,320 --> 00:28:25,679
the reaction and then demand stepped in to take out that reaction and cause that
463
00:28:25,679 --> 00:28:29,760
break of structure so now we know this is extremely for our uh strong for our
464
00:28:29,760 --> 00:28:32,799
zone so we could get long here but maybe you know we're not sure i mean we want
465
00:28:32,799 --> 00:28:35,440
to wait for a little bit more confirmation that the four hour higher
466
00:28:35,440 --> 00:28:39,600
low is in place so what can we wait for well before what we looked at
467
00:28:39,600 --> 00:28:43,919
is purely just a market structure break so we wanted to see the m15 make that
468
00:28:43,919 --> 00:28:48,000
first higher high right after a series of lower highs so we wanted to see that
469
00:28:48,000 --> 00:28:51,919
change of character right which is then what we get over here
470
00:28:51,919 --> 00:28:56,399
what else what also can we then increase our probability um
471
00:28:56,399 --> 00:28:59,760
that you know that that four hour high low is in place and the m15 is switching
472
00:28:59,760 --> 00:29:02,559
bullish where we would look for that demand zone to be created right and we
473
00:29:02,559 --> 00:29:05,840
would look for the demand that led to that change of character that led to
474
00:29:05,840 --> 00:29:08,720
that breaking structure that led to that higher high right and that would give us
475
00:29:08,720 --> 00:29:12,000
a strong demand zone now also do we know right that can
476
00:29:12,000 --> 00:29:14,720
increase the probability of that being a strong zone well we look for one that
477
00:29:14,720 --> 00:29:18,320
also took out supply so how do we know that it took out a
478
00:29:18,320 --> 00:29:21,840
significant supply zone but we need to see that reaction first right we need to
479
00:29:21,840 --> 00:29:25,200
see that battle and that is really key so when price pulls back up into the
480
00:29:25,200 --> 00:29:28,880
supply zone right this m15 should be a strong supply zone because it caused the
481
00:29:28,880 --> 00:29:32,320
break of this low right to form that lower low so now we have a structural
482
00:29:32,320 --> 00:29:36,559
supply zone right here price comes into that supply zone it
483
00:29:36,559 --> 00:29:40,480
tries to do its job it tries to make a lower low but it fails to take out that
484
00:29:40,480 --> 00:29:44,399
low right it fails to do its job and then demand steps in to not only cause
485
00:29:44,399 --> 00:29:47,600
the reaction to fail because remember the minute we are above the reaction
486
00:29:47,600 --> 00:29:50,799
right we don't need the change of character we just need to go break above
487
00:29:50,799 --> 00:29:54,640
where that reaction initiated from as soon as we're above it above that dotted
488
00:29:54,640 --> 00:29:58,559
line we now know it's very likely that that supply is going to fail
489
00:29:58,559 --> 00:30:03,039
it's not confirmed until we break above the zone but we know once the reaction
490
00:30:03,039 --> 00:30:07,760
goes it's very likely that it will fail right and then if we also get a change
491
00:30:07,760 --> 00:30:11,200
of character then we know this is a very strong demand zone because it took out
492
00:30:11,200 --> 00:30:15,200
strong supply and it took out structure it caused that break of structure to the
493
00:30:15,200 --> 00:30:19,200
upside so now we have a flip and a chalk with the zone and that is a very high
494
00:30:19,200 --> 00:30:22,720
probability zone so what we can do is wait for the m15 to pull back to get an
495
00:30:22,720 --> 00:30:26,159
m15 high low and we could just buy straight away there on the m15 zone and
496
00:30:26,159 --> 00:30:29,440
that is more than valid but maybe we want to wait for a little bit more even
497
00:30:29,440 --> 00:30:32,000
more confirmation or even more refinement so we can drop down to a
498
00:30:32,000 --> 00:30:36,000
lower time frame to confirm that this zone is going to hold and we are going
499
00:30:36,000 --> 00:30:40,640
to get an m15 high low in this area so let's say we jump down to one time frame
500
00:30:40,640 --> 00:30:43,200
right exact exact same thing i'm not going to be as pedantic this time i'm
501
00:30:43,200 --> 00:30:45,919
just going to explain this one quickly right we obviously have supply making
502
00:30:45,919 --> 00:30:49,440
lower lows and lower highs it must have created supply to take out that low so
503
00:30:49,440 --> 00:30:53,200
the price pulls back up into the supply if that bearish trend is continue what
504
00:30:53,200 --> 00:30:57,279
should happen it should form a lower low price then fails to do so demand steps
505
00:30:57,279 --> 00:31:00,960
in and it takes out the reaction right so we get the failed reaction but we
506
00:31:00,960 --> 00:31:04,320
also get the change of character so not only has price taken that's a
507
00:31:04,320 --> 00:31:08,320
strong supply but it has also taken up structure to form a higher high so now
508
00:31:08,320 --> 00:31:13,279
we have done is validated a very strong m1 demand zone for us to then buy right
509
00:31:13,279 --> 00:31:18,000
from this area which has confirmed the m15 high low and that m15 high low did
510
00:31:18,000 --> 00:31:21,360
what it confirmed potentially we have the four hour high low so then when we
511
00:31:21,360 --> 00:31:25,840
buy in this area we have an extremely strong high probability swing trade
512
00:31:25,840 --> 00:31:30,559
right with lower time frame precision to now target this weak four-hour high
513
00:31:30,559 --> 00:31:35,360
because it failed to do its job right now let's say that price does actually
514
00:31:35,360 --> 00:31:39,600
go on to make that higher high you have to think about that whole cycle has now
515
00:31:39,600 --> 00:31:44,480
restarted because what has happened from this area of supply here well it's tried
516
00:31:44,480 --> 00:31:48,320
to do its job right it initiated that pullback but its job isn't just to start
517
00:31:48,320 --> 00:31:52,159
a pullback supply wants to try and create a lower low right but for it to
518
00:31:52,159 --> 00:31:55,679
do that that supply zone needs to lead to a break of structure that is slow
519
00:31:55,679 --> 00:31:59,679
here right this supply zone up here needs to try and take out this low but
520
00:31:59,679 --> 00:32:03,039
all that's happened is it's pulled back right and then price has gone on and
521
00:32:03,039 --> 00:32:06,880
it's taken out that reaction right to cause not only a break of structure but
522
00:32:06,880 --> 00:32:10,960
also a failed reaction of this supply zone here so then what would happen when
523
00:32:10,960 --> 00:32:14,720
we would later on is somewhere around here we would try and identify
524
00:32:14,720 --> 00:32:18,799
where that four hour zone was right that led to that break of structure that led
525
00:32:18,799 --> 00:32:22,399
to that zone being taken out and then we can do the exact same process over and
526
00:32:22,399 --> 00:32:25,200
over again right dropping down through the time frames looking for that flip
527
00:32:25,200 --> 00:32:30,159
zone right takes out supply here reacts change of character demand flip all
528
00:32:30,159 --> 00:32:34,640
right draw on the demand price comes in and we get long target the high so on
529
00:32:34,640 --> 00:32:38,960
and yeah so forth so that wraps up the theory um
530
00:32:38,960 --> 00:32:41,440
hopefully it starts to make a little bit sense you can watch this as many times
531
00:32:41,440 --> 00:32:44,799
as you need to um you know recreate these diagrams as well something i'd
532
00:32:44,799 --> 00:32:47,200
always highly recommend that goes for all of the ones that we've looked at so
533
00:32:47,200 --> 00:32:50,559
far on the course you know i've obviously provided um
534
00:32:50,559 --> 00:32:53,279
you know the screenshots of these annotations below each video but i would
535
00:32:53,279 --> 00:32:56,559
really recommend doing the exercise of making your own ones drawing them out
536
00:32:56,559 --> 00:33:00,240
because just the process of doing it will really kind of help to yeah just to
537
00:33:00,240 --> 00:33:03,679
put it deep in your subconscious and help you identify where there may be any
538
00:33:03,679 --> 00:33:07,840
subtle gaps in your knowledge thus far but anyway i'll leave that there in the
539
00:33:07,840 --> 00:33:10,640
next video we're going to hop on the charts and obviously take a look at how
540
00:33:10,640 --> 00:33:13,679
this plays in reality because of course we're not always going to get these nice
541
00:33:13,679 --> 00:33:18,320
perfect utopian examples but price moves really slowly um and we don't get any
542
00:33:18,320 --> 00:33:21,120
full signals right of course it's going to be a little bit trickier in the live
543
00:33:21,120 --> 00:33:23,600
market but yeah let's take our time on the markets
544
00:33:23,600 --> 00:33:26,960
and we'll give it a go and see if we can identify those but
545
00:33:26,960 --> 00:33:30,399
what i will actually say just before hitting this is if you guys feel a bit
546
00:33:30,399 --> 00:33:34,320
confident is have a quick uh go on the charts now whatever currency pay you've
547
00:33:34,320 --> 00:33:37,519
been using thus far with all of the exercises to draw on your zones
548
00:33:37,519 --> 00:33:40,640
obviously you should now have your structural zones drawn on just go over
549
00:33:40,640 --> 00:33:43,360
and have a play and see if you can identify
550
00:33:43,360 --> 00:33:47,760
where these flips are happening so look at old supply zones and look at
551
00:33:47,760 --> 00:33:50,960
where demand took them out and see how they react does it make those demand
552
00:33:50,960 --> 00:33:54,159
zones hold even stronger um yeah and obviously look at where you know demand
553
00:33:54,159 --> 00:33:57,440
takes out supply sorry where supply takes a demand um yeah and so on and so
554
00:33:57,440 --> 00:34:00,080
forth because then when i go back through them when you're a dollar um
555
00:34:00,080 --> 00:34:03,679
yeah it will just uh you know make the exercise even more useful if you do it
556
00:34:03,679 --> 00:34:06,559
before i go through and then you can see how
557
00:34:06,559 --> 00:34:10,000
yeah my thought processes as we go through it together but yeah i'll leave
558
00:34:10,000 --> 00:34:13,280
that there have a go with it and see how you get on
559
00:34:13,280 --> 00:34:16,440
all right60335
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