All language subtitles for June 13, 2017 Tuesday New York Session Recording EN

Okay folks.

Welcome back.

Good morning, everyone.

Um, we're going to be looking at the
position that should have been kicked off

for your case study for the British pound.

And we have 8:30 AM news.

So we're going to observe the reaction
at the PPI release at 8:30 AM.

Let's go over to our charts.

Okay.

So I have the CME opening
delaying to you on the chart.

We've been lower on the dollar
index, and now we're trading

into an alley or a block.

So we have a potential
order block and hit it.

Price could react on in the news.

If we spiked down through that, the
next area of, or if I was right in here,

I'm not too excited about that one.

So if we lose this order block,
we're probably going to aim for

the sell stocks below here as noted
yesterday on that chart index.

So that's the, uh, Either we're
finding support here or we're going

for the sales thoughts below there.

Now, what that means is we have to watch
this order block closely in the next

25 minutes or so if it gives way, if
it gives way before the news release,

I got to kill this short on cable and
we'll take a look at that real quick.

So we have the.

Scrub this over here a little bit.

There we go.

So I'm gonna take this off now.

We don't need that.

So the 1 27 23 price and it's gap
that we outlined has been filled.

Now we're hanging up above it.

That's concerning me a little bit.

Admittedly.

I don't like the idea that it's doing.

If I was hoping they would give back a
little bit of ground and come back down

below, at least a middle of the gap.

So it's showing reluctancy in it.

So when we get down for the
sell stuff below here today,

I don't know how to see it.

The, uh, the news release in
about less than a half an hour,

this gap is the next upside.

And then we have this equal highs notice.

My staff is below that.

So we have a stop that would
hopefully permit me an opportunity.

If we lose the order block on
the dollar index over here.

Let's look at it like this.

If we watch it trade down through
now going to let it have the clothes,

the trades down to the clothes.

I have to eliminate the, uh,
to short on cable because

they'll probably mind gun it.

Aim for the buy stops
above these equal highs.

Have no problem filling this gap.

If it wants to go higher, if that
bull shorter block, when the dollar

gets away, this gap won't stop.

It.

They'll run no run for the
liquidity above these equal highs.

So nice to see it react to all the, up
into this level, but it's gotten a little

ahead of itself and I'm hoping to just
because of a short squeeze, but I'll see

because the news is pending on the
dollar and we may get reaction.

I don't want to take
any kind of a stop and.

And move it lower yet because it
could spike up a little bit above

this hot here and how much, so I
don't want to see it go, obviously

be above the order block here.

So let's have that outlined on our
chart on this bar on this line here.

Don't want to see it go above 27 40.

We'll go at 27 40.

At that, right?

Yeah.

27 45 to the trades at 27 45.

I'll say this, stop it.

Won't be a full stop.

Now this move to the sidelines
and wait for new information.

And then that's that, um, real quick
while we're looking at, uh, the outcome

of our set up that was given for the
London, it did not feel until 5 22.

Oh, is that right

now?

Would've been a

6 22.

Yeah.

6 22.

My time.

Yeah.

6 22.

Failed there.

So that was a little
outside the kill zone.

What's this going to happen?

Sometimes if you're going to use a
limit order, but we'll see what we

get in terms of the dollar reaction.

Let's look at the cat.

This pair fell completely
through the winter block.

So we have a 90% fulfillment of
the market maker, cell profile.

We have consolidation or Allie
returned the consolidation, smart

Miami where so low risk, short
distribution redistribution.

And we came all the way down.

Didn't quite get down below
that yet, but we have.

You want to block here and a small
portion of fair value gap right in here.

So we're looking for sell stops
below this low here on dollar CAD.

This no longer is a viable setup,
so too heavy for this pair to get

back up there, but nice to see over
a hundred pips dropdown from when we

were talking about just didn't get any
bounce off of that or a block at all.

Euro still inside of this range, uh,
it's trapped between two reference

points means threshold, a bear's
order block and bullish order block.

So it's got to move its way out of here
to give me indication what it wants to do.

I don't want to trade it inside of this
that's what's, which is the reason why I

said no set up and the 15 minute timeframe
we saw a little bit of a pop here.

We have by stops above it.

But it doesn't make sense, personally,
this is my personal opinion.

It doesn't make sense to come back
up here because we've had all of this

action here, running, running, running.

So to me, and I may be completely
wrong here and I'm okay with that.

This, this looks like, uh, like I'm
going to go higher, but I'm really

not going to, and let's go lower.

That's personally.

What I see and I was, I see
this as a failure swing.

But I don't have a lot of conviction to
degree where I would look to short it.

So bear that in mind.

So in a lot of, you'd like to
take that and run with it and say,

well, ICT says, so a secret code
now I'm telling you, I don't know.

I don't know for sure if it wants to
do that, but I just don't trust it.

Rallying.

Okay.

So I don't think they'll want to
take those biceps, but if they do,

it'll probably be just like one
of those little two or five pit

moves above it and then run away.

That's what I personally think
or could to stay in the range.

I just don't want to be a buyer of it.

I just lost interest
where we're at right now.

Obviously it could change if we
rally through, then I'm going to

be more interested in seeing it
rally through to the biceps up

here, but I just don't see it.

Done it yet.

So there you go.

And then it's not much of information,
but that's my honest opinion

about what I see it in your pants
is not really giving us much.

I have a little bit of a Bush or
a flow in here, but to sell slots

below that look like they're hot.

So they may want to jab down and hit them
and then may recapitalize your bucket.

That comes in at, uh, 87,
80 to 87 80 should be the

support look for a return for

offset, uh, accumulation when
we'll take the cell stops out.

And then look to take it higher up
into that, that you got, which is over.

Here it is way over here in November.

So that's, what's remaining.

So that's that.

And let's go back to our dollar
index a couple more minutes.

CME opening.

Now, this could have been a return
back to fair value bear, shorter block,

and then expand down to this old wick
below on the November 8th for a dollar.

And I'll let you see that again over here.

So it could be done that they expand down.

Or it could trap traders thinking
that and come up here and close this.

And then this maybe is why I don't
have a lot of conviction yet.

I'm dragging my feet a
little bit this week.

So we have fair value gap, right
to the bottom of that breaker

to see that 62% tracing level.

That's why I'm nervous
about wanting to be.

Aggressive about, uh, I'm going
short here on the dollar because it's

made a low, I mean, a lower load.

This could be just a higher, low margin
structure, uh, enemy, it turned a

long-term low trade up to 60% chasing
level, clear up all this inefficiency and

then make the round later on for this.

And maybe even go back down into here.

So that's, what's in my mind.

So we'll have to watch a couple
more minutes and CME opening.

See if we get any kind of a favorable
movement, again, not like this

winding up consolidation stuff,
which looks like it may need to at

least try to take out the daily high.

And I have to be very careful about
where we go in regards to that,

because if it loses 27 45, I'm out.

I just want to get my, the screen
ready in case I have to bail.

If I have to collapse the train,
which looks highly probable here,

there will be no more set up
for this morning to pull my, uh,

self-aware in the trucks.

Cause they don't see anything
that would put me in a, I want to

take this type of trade to recoup.

So I'll have to go home today
with a small loss, which is okay.

It's still early in the
week, but I want to.

I don't see anything going back
in to like mitigate right away.

The action's a little,
uh, to one side for this

in my mind say, well, okay, well, if
it's going out there and you think it's

going to go above those buys stops there.

Why not buy it long?

You can personally, I just don't
want to do that because we will

be buying it at a really, really
deep premium relative to the range.

And here and we're we're bracket in.

We have sell stock liquidity pool
and buys that liquidity pool and

they could just really squeeze it up
tight and maybe make me, uh, let me

take the, uh, short out at 27 45 and
never even run to where my stop is.

And that's okay.

I just don't want to take a full stop.

That's a catastrophic stop up here.

So I don't want.

That ideally it should've fell from here
and I'm already holding it more than

I'm comfortable, but I'm permitting it
because there's been a lot of hoopla from

the UK about what's going on, you know?

Well, you know what it's like, if
you read the headlines, it's all

kinds of craziness over there.

That's what happens when
you get a Trump in office?

Uh, at the third in it.

Sorry.

Um, the reason why I would be willing
to collapse a trade ahead of the news is

because if we have an injection about.

It'd be easy for it to spike and spread
right on up to 27 65 and gap to 27 75.

And it would give you the opportunity
to reduce the exposure and risk.

Again, it's not about being right.

I don't care about being right.

I don't care about accuracy.

I don't care about, um, Well,
it's my mind is I don't want to,

I don't care about being right.

I'm caring about preserving capital.

So if I know that probability,
if it goes to 27 45, look at

where that is in relationship to
the gap, we're already above it.

I'm only allowing a certain
measure of imperfection.

In my opinion, I'm being
very liberal with it.

So.

To collapse it before the news,
to me, it makes better sense

because it can still spread and
reach up there for the liquidity.

Think about it.

They're grinding it up higher, higher,
higher, higher, higher, higher, except

for the value you get that we've outlined
in here and the next one's up here.

So if it goes up here to close that
in to spread a loan could tag me out.

So what's more important being right.

And holding to an idea that really has
fallen off of probabilities because in an

ideal situation on what should came up.

So the gap, maybe a little bit
above it, maybe back into the

bare shorter block here, but then
go lower, but it hasn't done.

So, so they're aiming and driving it for
something the closer they get to this

gap up here, the more likely they're
going to use the news in a couple of.

The snatch, these biostats, and
then it could follow the hell.

And you know, who knows?

I don't know, but it won't make sense
for me to be in the marketplace above

27 45, because we're already way
above where it should have stopped.

So this is, this is what
I was hoping to see.

Oh, oh.

I wanted to see us at Polk above and get
rid of this consolidation idea, poke above

the high here and then maybe trade lower.

That would, that would be good.

It makes sense for that, but
any higher than we're doing now?

No.

Good.

Yeah.

I've already mentioned Canadian dollar.

Um,

you got to say awakening now.

I might actually give you
something that makes money.

Um,

and tomorrow's going to be crazy and
it's going to be literally insane.

The price action was going to be.

It's in my head.

It's not worth trading.

There won't be any, in my opinion,
there won't be any setups that

I'm probably going to be sharing
at all because it's FF, it's FMC.

I mean, it's all kinds of
stuff coming up tomorrow.

So if you're trading tomorrow, you
really have no self control whatsoever.

And you're gambling.

Cause there's no one, no one's
going to know accurately what

FMC is going to do with price.

It's just, it's like
non-farm payroll on steroids.

Uh, why has there been a black
of low resistance to poorly runs?

And is there a reason for it?

Uh, Anton, it's the byproduct of
a S it's a very scared market.

And.

Every pair is doing its own thing.

So when it's like this, you gotta
be very, very careful number one,

and you gotta have a very strong
conviction about what it wants to

do for the pair you're trading.

There's not a whole lot of

clarity.

No one really knows what's going on.

And as soon as you think it's
getting better, it goes into a

tailspin and goes CRA credit again.

And now you got Diane summer
doldrums building into it now.

Just be aware that it's not, it's not a
permanent thing, you know, falls coming.

And if you, you basically blow all
your capital now, or if you lose

your nerve now you won't be ready
for September, October, November.

That's where your mind is
going to be made this year.

Unfortunately, yes.

Patience is required.

It's hard to have patients
when you're paying for us too.

So you're paying and waiting
and you're having that week.

And it's very, very hard
lesson, but you'll be better.

You'll be better trainers because of it.

Yes, I'll be talking
about options on futures.

Take a quick look over here.

The dollar I'm still holding
inside the order block.

Got about what is that?

Seven minutes or so
we'll have our news out.

New York opened only adding a
lot of information about that

with this week's bond content,

give, gathering my bond set ups
when I was trading treasury bonds

back in the nineties, but she'll
help for you understanding why

the markets are so screwed up.

Right.

And you'll know what it looks like when
the markets are getting ready to blast

off and be one sided directional place,
which draws in low resistance liquid.

He runs,

some of you have forgotten
the, the bond market.

There are interest rates.

So if the interest rate markets
are in a rut in a trading range,

that's going to put the brakes
on any sustained, uh, Trends.

And that's why we're having
these range bound environments.

Markets are still gonna move around,
but he's gotta be careful not to expect

some extrapolated trend that goes
on for months and months and months.

One direction.

the application of intermarket
analysis with the bond market.

That's all part of the trading
plan breakdown for all the

asset classes in August.

What to do, what to look for when to apply
it when not to concern yourself with it.

Do I agree to volatility has been
very limited in the last few years.

And does it worry you?

Um, it, just, to me, it just means a lot
of the big players are holding cash and

they're just sitting on the sidelines.

A lot of the folks last, when a years ago
I was telling everyone what was coming,

you know, the types of things that we're
going to see around the world, especially

in the U S I told you it was going to be
like the wild west in the United States.

And it's like a circus.

I mean, every day, some kind of
lunacy is breaking off and now

it's in every, every country.

I mean, Brazil is going crazy right now.

I mean, the Philippines martial
law has been broken out.

You know, we have the UK, which I was
actually thinking about moving the UK.

I was trying to talk my wife into it
for the last three and a half years.

And she's like, see if we would've
moved over there, I'd be scared

to death, blah, blah, blah.

So, I mean, it's over there now, too.

So the whole world is in
a mess and it really is.

It's that's concerning.

Um, cause there's really no place
you can really look to and say, well,

you know, it's going to be nice here.

You're going to be preserved from
having experiencing that stuff.

But the bottom line is, is, you
know, there's an agenda here and

everyone used to say, probably still
do 10 full hat, ICT discussions.

But if you look around,
it's not, it's the obvious.

And we were just ahead of the curve.

I like Singapore is great trading
hours, but again, life is against it.

So

I tried to talk her into doing perfect.

Again, she's, uh, I think it's her
mother is something that happens

in, she goes into a, right now, her
cancer's in remission, but they found

another spot on one of her lungs and
they got to go and do another biopsy

and she doesn't want to get it done.

She told my, uh, my wife is if they
think it's cancer or they find out if

the cancer she's not getting an operation
anymore, she's just going to just let

it do whatever it's going to do to her.

And she wants to go what's
my wife's not taking that.

Well.

You know, you got to respect someone's
wishes is what she went through.

Wasn't pleasant, wasn't pleasant at all.

all right.

So we have two minutes,
less than two minutes.

Yes.

I expect the stock market to crash.

If it doesn't, if it does not crash
this wall, it's not crashing that it's

going to keep sending it higher and
higher and higher, and the fed will

just keep putting more money into it
and it'll eventually happen later on.

But if it doesn't happen, this
this fall, we're going to be going

higher for the next three years.

Strongest opinion.

If they don't give, we don't
see a stock market crash.

This fall, I am 100% time, 100% convinced
that the fed is in the stock market

and they're artificially profit up.

And that just makes it worse
when it finally does come.

And then I do think we will see
a re replacement of the dollar

with the stock market crash and it
will be, and today's type stuff.

How can I say what Paul I've been
jobbing in for the last couple minutes?

Um, why?

I think if it doesn't go down this fall,
it's going to go up for three years.

They won't let it dry.

but personally, I think they
got the beautiful escape goat

by Donald Trump being in office.

They're going to say he'd
caused it when it's been in

the process of being laid out.

It doesn't matter who it was.

It's going to be in the office.

Hillary would have been in office.

We would have gotten the war with Russia
and that would have been the catalyst.

Okay, here we go.

Get the news.

If you make a higher high on bank.

As long as he doesn't make a new hire
high here, I'm holding the short.

So that way I can talk
to you cause now my ramp.

But, um, if we have the, uh,

if we would've had, who would have
had Killary Clinton in there, we would

have had a Russian war and you could
see how they're trying to pop one off.

When Donald Trump got an office down
and say, you know, oh, he says, Uh,

spy or he's in cahoots with Russia.

So there's an agenda here today.

One of the startup, because there's
no better way of crashing the stock

market than a war with the Ruskies.

So since that didn't happen.

Okay.

Um, they're going to have to come up
with some other storyline, but Donald

Trump's right smack dab in the middle.

And again, I'm not trying
to say Donald Trump's the

greatest president in the world.

I, I don't think that at all, but I like
what he's come in and try to do on a few

things, but I think he's compromised.

And I said this about every president that
gets in office, you know, you may go in

there with the best intentions and best
heart, and maybe Obama was like that.

You know, maybe he went in there with
the greatest of intentions and he was

going to be the, in the greatest thing
in the world in terms of, uh, world.

But something happened soon as he got
an office, he changed gears immediately.

And I think what happens is when you
get in there, they say, Hey, look,

um, you hear about that guy, JFK
you're hear what happened to him.

And all of a sudden, you know, they
roll over and whatever, wherever

they're told to deal is what happens.

And Americans and people around
the world get mad and say,

oh, well, you know, it's this.

And it's that.

I honestly believe in my heart of hearts
that whoever gets in office, they're not.

Bleeding anything.

They're just a person
that's following the script.

They're in a, they're in a play
either in a movie script, you

know, they have to play their part.

And if they don't then credits come
a lot sooner for them than they want.

And it's, and that's kind of scary.

But, you know, I was reading
the article with the, was a guy.

He was like, look, you know, I'm
going to start running for office.

And he's really not anybody
that probably would know.

And I certainly don't know who he was, but
he was like, I want to go in there into my

campaigns are going to be ending the fed.

Well, I can tell you this
much, even if that guy got any

ground, something would happen.

You know, the plane ride.

I wouldn't be on a plane with him and I
wouldn't be riding on the bus with him.

But we are in some strange, strange times

and all of that, you know,
all of that stuff has its

reverberations in the marketplace.

And I personally think that people that
have a ton of money, a ton more mind than

any of us collectively would have those
individuals they're not in the market.

They're not in the markets at all.

They don't have any measure
of risk at, on, at all.

And what are they doing with their money?

I don't know.

And I've been trying to figure that out
for the last five years, cause I know

it's coming and apart from being short,
equities and long gold and silver, I

think initially they'll have nice pops,
but if it gets too wild, I don't even

think they're going to be good markets.

I think they'll do.

I think they're going to crash.

There's.

Yeah, I don't know, Joe, like I
said, I don't have a strong opinion

about what Obama was or wasn't.

Um, before he went in the office,
I just know he sucked in office.

Everything that upset the, uh, the
constitution, our, uh, civil rights,

our heritage as a nation, everything,
all that stuff has been marred by his

oppress presidency, but I'm going off,
you know, I'm going off in a conversation.

It's probably not a good
one for this type of group.

Peter over here at the dollar index.

So far a little bit of support family.

Now we're blocked

Euro, still holding near the high today.

Yeah, we can lose half that if we
lose half of the fair value gap.

In other words, if we get down,
um, what's the close on this, it

gets down to 27, 20 I'll drop the
stop down to today's intraday high.

It should not rally back up to that point.

If it gets down to there.

And I'll drop the stop a little bit
from where we are now, the third

30 pips.

So, um, anyway, the, uh,

if you're looking at the, um,

The, uh, lost my train of thought here.

Yeah.

There, if we would've had Hillary Clinton
in office, the storyline would have been,

you know, we're going to war with Russia.

You know, if, if, uh, I mean,
cause you think about what they

are actually con contemplating day,
we're trying to scrub the entire.

Like the votes didn't take place, you
know, like, well, you know, we can't

trust this, you know, we have the
whole, we have to take him at office

and we have to have another election.

I mean, that's insanity.

Can you imagine if we would've had,
if we would've did another election,

I think that would have been the
catalyst to send stock market down.

I mean, that's all, we're really needing.

We're Nita.

We need a reason to justify
because it can't just happen on it.

Because there has to be a way for them
to say, okay, um, it's good now to invest

again, because this problem person we had
in the white house is no longer in office.

Now we can go back to the regular
things and then we can trust the system.

We can trust the, the, there is no
manipulation in the marketplace.

It's a free marketplace.

Folks, come on, put your money in here.

You can go back to normal business,
but all your funds back into IRAs.

It's normal.

Don't worry about it.

You know, that that monster
in the closet has been caged.

And now.

Everything is normal.

Cause they can not let the
obvious, which you've all learned

working with me is there's clear
manipulation, absolute manipulation,

because it's like the lottery.

You know, everyone believes that, uh,
you know, if they spend $2 for a, uh,

for a Powerball ticket, they have the
probabilities of mourning 470 million.

That's a stupid tax.

You know, people that
believe that are stupid.

So yes, once a while they're going
to have somebody that says they

went or they create the illusion.

I don't believe they have all these
people that win, but nonetheless,

I'm sure there's somebody in here
and probably says they know somebody

and it's probably it's great.

But the point is, is they give us
this illusion all the time that we

have freedom, that we have a choice.

Um, we have a system that's
in our best interest.

If we invest in it, We're so far gone.

Okay.

In terms of the U S that we don't have
enough money to support, you know, the

money that's on deposit, you know, in
2008, nobody realizes how close we came

to crash and all the global economies,
because their doctor tied to the dollar.

So when you understand the, the
balancing act that everything

has, there has to be a.

It has to, it has to come
because it can't sustain itself.

And the people that argue against that
don't know what they're talking about

and don't spend any time looking at it.

And they're the same ones that if you sit
down with them and point these things out

and say, look, now take a look at this and
say, look at this, take a look at this.

The, the sum total won't come to
the conclusion where they say,

okay, yeah, this is a problem.

Does it say, well, you know,
you're just a doom and gloom,

or I'm not a doom and gloom.

I hope it cracks.

Because it's a wonderful
opportunity because we need that.

We need an enema.

This, this whole thing is a mess.

The real estate is getting ready to crash.

You know, um, the debt market isn't
done, it's going a lot lower, but when

that snaps it's going to be really bad.

And you gotta, you gotta take
that in consideration because.

The job market hasn't improved as much
as they want to say it is to all those

non-farm payroll data is they're all fake.

They're all phony and they're,
they don't even count the number of

people that are, you know, they just
aren't being factored into numbers

anymore, but they don't have jobs.

You know, my wife has family
members that can't get a job.

They've lost their jobs in the
last couple of years and they can't

get any jobs unless they want to
work at like a fast food place.

And who wants to do that?

Nobody wants to do that.

I mean, even teenagers
don't even want to do it.

So, I mean, we have a lot of problems,
not just in the U S and around the world.

So it's not one of those environments
where you throw a dart at the stock table

and you buy it and you're gonna do well.

And that's what it was
like in the nineties.

You know, that's why I got lucky to be.

You got to know what you're doing now.

And if you don't, you can get
really beat up or destroy it quick.

The numbers, all the employment numbers.

Okay.

When you had employment and you lost your
job with Obama, um, it usually, and I,

if I'm not mistaken, I think it's six.

That you could draw unemployment benefits.

Well, he ended up giving it for
an additional six months so people

could draw more, uh, more funds.

Well, a lot of the folks said, well,
that's six months of vacation time.

I'm not really interested.

Uh, getting another job.

I'll get another, a job later on
in the problem is, is the economy,

um, received even more so when they
thought they could just go right

back into the job market, after
taking a full year off, you know, as.

Yeah, everybody knows.

I, I, I came from a food industry,
so I did a vending route.

I also managed a, a Domino's pizza.

So I knew as a manager, I don't want
somebody to send signal ever again for

a year that that shows no ambition.

And to me, I would have more respect for
someone if they came to me for a job.

If they were working a menial job
anywhere, just say, well, if I had to

eat, you know, I had to take this job.

I don't want to do it.

I'm working there now, but this is
what I want to do, you know, in,

in your field or your business and
managers will hire someone that has

a job and it's it's bad, but it, when
you really break it down, it's true.

It's easier to get a job when you have
one versus when you don't have one.

So when we have all these folks
sitting on their rear end, okay.

And I'm not saying this, it wasn't
everybody, but I know folks that did that.

And I told him, I said, you're going
to wait around and wait around.

You're not going to get
one and it's gonna be hard.

And they, you know, they tell me now
I wish I would have listened to you.

And I tell them all the time.

I wish I would've can make you
better, but I used to deliver

pizza and I man, it's the dominoes.

Yeah.

So.

When these folks sat around and didn't
work anymore and they try to get jobs.

You know, obviously when we do the
non-farm payroll numbers, they're

factored in on the numbers right now.

But after you fall out of the system and
you no longer can collect the benefits,

you don't, you're not even factored in
a number anymore, it's it you're gone.

So there's a large number of people
that are still out there that aren't

even in these numbers that don't have.

If you look at the economic climate in the
U S there's a lot of companies, a lot of

brick and mortar companies are closing.

So if you look at that, you know,
that doesn't bode well for economy

and not that not everything's Amazon.

I mean, you can probably buy just
about anything that comes to mind

off Amazon, but there's still a lot
of older folks that don't trust that

they want to go to a store and pick up
what they're buying and handle it, and

look at the box and do all that stuff.

They don't trust, you know, econ.

And because of all the, uh,
identity theft and things.

Now there's a large degree of old, old
timers who just don't want to do it.

So

the long and short of it is we have to
shake out all this fluff and there's

a lot of it in the marketplace.

And the only in the best
way is just to make it.

It's gotta be sudden, it's gotta be quick.

Let it be painful.

Will it be ugly?

People are going to get hurt.

Banks are going to have to close
smaller banks going to have

to, you know, uh, either absorb
them like we saw in 2008, 2009.

And I think personally,
that was part of the plan.

Um, the larger banks gobble up
all the smaller banks and took

out that realm of competition.

So we bailed them out,
but there's a bail income.

And they're going to go after the 401ks.

They're going to say that they have to do
this to, um, to keep things going because

the fed won't bail us out this time.

China's in debt now.

And they bought a lot of our debt.

So now China's into who's,
who's bailing them out.

No, one's paying attention to that.

China's got all kinds
of problems right now.

No, you're hearing by talking
about it, but you gotta, you gotta

play, you know, you gotta pay a lot
more attention to just whatever.

So, anyway, I'm going on and on and on.

Like I'm on YouTube, but it's
been awhile since I said anything

about these types of things.

And I'm, I'm passionate about it.

Even though my wife, doesn't like to
hear these things, it's it scares her.

And that's how our concept
is not to be scared of it.

Cause you can't control it.

You, you, you, you can't stop it from
happening when it happens, but isn't,

it far better than anticipate the
likelihood of it happening to that way.

You're not completely like a deer in head.

You anticipated something bad happening
and it is what it is, but, you know,

here's the thing, you know, before
we had the stock market, before we.

Yeah, sports cars and luxury houses
and exotic cruises and fancy watches

and clothes and iPhones that we can
do more with our iPhone and presence.

Could do you know, when Clinton was
in office, you know, we got more

control and information in our hands,
in our smartphone than president

Clinton had during his presidency.

That's insane.

That's insanity.

That's what we have in our
hands, but we have grown so

accustomed and think about this.

If you leave the house and you
forget yourself, What do you feel

like when you don't have it in
your hand or in your in reach?

Like you're naked,
there's something wrong.

You don't know what's going on.

It's crazy because you have been
assimilated as you have been.

You're part of the system.

Now you're plugged in, but look
with what's going on before

we have all these things.

We, we, we did fine without, at all.

We didn't have to have
all these types of things.

We had ingenuity, we had commerce,
we had business, we had economy.

Boom.

You know, everybody lived just
fine with all this stuff, but

it creates that fear factor.

Okay.

Where everyone goes crazy.

If we lose this way of living this
way of living can be reestablished

at a later time, but we need
to have some kind of reset.

It needs to get rid of all this stuff.

And there's always going to be new
bubbles, new problems, things going to

get too far out of hand in the future,
but we've had really no real considerable.

Realistic retracement in the equities
market and where they're at right now.

It's not justified.

It's absolutely not justified all
of that with central bank buying.

I said this for years when it
started happening, I said the

central banks are in there.

They're the ones that's
buying the stocks up.

And now granted, because it's gone
on, people have put more money into

it, but they're buying the highs.

You know, if we have a.

A 15% retracement.

That's killing people.

They're not going to stay.

They're not going to stay in there.

They're gonna get wiped out.

So like I said, if it doesn't happen
this fall, I'm, uh, I'm on Stockholm for

years, but I don't think it's coming.

I think it's going to be a crash.

I think it's definitely, they have so
many storylines built into Donald Trump.

It's it's even people that
don't think like this are now

starting to say, you know what?

This is so obvious there they're
painting this tapestry where it's

going to be so easy for everyone
to say, yep, we should have never

put Donald Trump in office, man.

He screwed everything up.

When the storyline was in place in 2008,

the everybody that has a lot
of exposure that are elite

and rich, rich, rich people.

I mean, crazy rich people.

They have been exiting this entire time.

They don't have any exposure.

Like they had back in 2007, 2008.

They they're not in the market right now.

That's not what's going on this
whole central bank business.

That's been allowing the elite to get out.

You're not going to want to believe it.

They're not gonna wanna hear about it,
but it's going to make sense five years

from now, we look back at all the car.

And there's nothing you can do about
it because it's already happened.

But that's what I see.

My, my horizon sees that
it's a wasteland of upside.

It's all going down and I'm welcoming it.

I want it to happen because it needs
to, and then once the pinion, once

the dust settles, we'll have a closer.

In my opinion, a more appropriate
perspective on valuation then, and

then it's going to take, you know,
companies that do very well to, uh,

you know, to gain market share and, and
do what we see some stocks doing that

are unjustified new stocks, going up
a hundred dollars a share in a month

or six weeks, $150 a share in 60.

For what what's going on there?

I don't know.

The point is, is we've lost
normalcy and we need to return to

it or get close as we can to it.

Because right now I think anybody that
buys these equities at these highs right

now, where we're at just as ludicrous

and wants to start.

Like I said, if it wants this thing
snaps, it's not going to provide

us a whole lot of opportunities.

It's not going to be a sell
off a rally, sell that rally.

So a rally sell that revenue is
not going to be like that at all.

It's not gonna be that at all.

If you do your research on, uh, the
stock market crashes, um, do you

see how they set these things up?

You know, like bank of America.

Bank of America was like new.

That was the stock.

You know, that was the thing that was
the, you know, if you were going to be in

the banking sector with your investments
needed, you owned bank of America.

And, uh, the leader of that company
wait for the stock market crash said,

uh, you know, that stock right there
is going to go up a hundred dollars

before it goes down 10 in there.

And everybody heard that were
like, man, it's, this is the, we

definitely need to be in this one.

And a lot of people don't know,
but bank of America was the leader

issue that stock led the crash.

They marked it down a hundred dollars.

That's crazy.

I mean, you don't, you don't realize how
much bull crap there is in this game until

you really, really research it it's crazy.

But yeah, it isn't, as I said, 5,000
points ago, it was going to crash, but.

You don't see me trading at either.

So can you imagine what they're
going to mark down these stocks

when they do send it lower?

When this thing really does crash,
say it does say it doesn't crash this

fall, say I'm wrong and I'm completely
oblivious about stocks and I'm wrong.

Wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong.

Okay.

Seven years from now, when it eventually
does happen, it's not going to be a

small little downtrend bear market.

It's not going to be like that.

It's going to be so abrupt and well,
that's going to be scary as hell.

In my opinion, this is not going
to be, it's going to be relentless.

It'll be going to be a sudden surge lower.

It's going to be violent.

And the normal breaks that they put in
on trading aren't, aren't going to help.

And it's just going to
exasperate the whole.

And to me that would be nothing better
to be in some kind of a short position

in that environment, because there's
no better feeling than being stuck

in a lock limit down in your bearish.

That's fun.

And it's as fun as it is.

It's terrifying because you
know, there's somebody as long

and that's not going to be a one day fall.

It's gonna be.

It's going to be a long, at least
six, six to nine months of decline

because once it breaks, no one's
going to be wanting to buy it.

And then you're going to
have everybody on CNBC St.

John, Jim Cramer is going to be out
there with pom-poms it's time to buy,

and that's going to be end of his career.

It's going to be over for him.

In 2007, 2008 or 2006, 2007,
2008 and 2009 were awesome.

Awesome, awesome years.

I mean, they were great.

I mean, our man, it was incredible,
but unfortunately that has spoiled me.

And even for somebody who's been doing
it, as long as I have, you know, I

felt that, you know, we've, we moved
into an information age where that was

going to be the normal for markets now.

And that's why I was like, man, this is.

Yeah.

If the currency markets maybe went
like this, that's a normal, oh man,

this is going to be, I'm going to hit
every one of my life goals, you know,

in 10 years it's going to be over.

I'm done.

But obviously we went into a rut and
now that's why I study all these things

because I had to make sense of why the
market was doing what it was doing.

And the more research I've did
and more studies than I did.

I came to the conclusion that.

We are in a bigger mess than I
thought we were back in 2007.

It's crazy because in the two thousands,
2001, 2002, 2001, 2004, everybody I knew.

What's going out, buying houses,
you know, and they were buying like

400, $500,000 houses, you know?

And they're like, oh man, my, my
payments less than, than, you know, 600

bucks a month, that's better than rent.

I'm like, what, what are you crazy?

Yeah.

Yeah.

It's, it's, it's as good as, as
good as you know, I got a, I got

a payment, it was like 750 bucks.

And then you add on a unit, uh, the
PMI and that all the, uh, you know, the

normal stuff, it's about a thousand bucks.

So, I mean, I got a half a million dollar
house for like a thousand dollars a month.

I'm like, dude, do you realize
what's going to happen in 10 years?

Like you're paying just the interest
and the principal's going to be staring

you in the face and your payment's
going to balloon up like crazy over

like several thousands of dollars,
much more than you think a month.

Oh no, no, no.

It's just it's.

It's cool.

It's cool.

You know, I'll, I'll,
I'll, I'll get out of it.

It's going to appreciate by then too.

Well, neither one of
those things happened and.

Seven of those individuals that I
knew live in studio apartments now.

So they had monstrosities of
a house back then, but they

live in a studio apartment now.

So it's just, it's, it's bad.

Everything's backwards.

It's crazy.

Like when you look at things
and you think, yeah, this is

the way I should do in life.

I should do this.

I should buy this.

I should live like this.

And when you get into it and you
think it's the right thing and it's

like, everything else, you look
back and you go, if you could go

back and rewind it and to do it.

Yeah.

That's what I hear them say all the time.

I wish I would've listened to you.

Well, I wish I would have been wrong.

I wish it would have been wrong.

This is one of the times where I wish
I would have been wrong, but I kept

telling him, I said, this is bad.

I told my uncle he's a finance major.

And uh, I told him, I said, you
know, When I was a 16 year old, I

told him, I said, why are we having
all these discussions about the

economy, multi this print more money.

Now this is a 16 year old mindset.

I don't know anything.

So he was like, you can't because
that's gonna screw up the, uh,

the buying power or the dollar.

You print too much money,
then it's it screws it up.

So I, I didn't make any sense to
me because in my mind you print a

dollar bill and you can spend it
now, you know, you're going to tell

somebody, no, if you have a car for.

Yeah, you want to sell it for $25,000
and he come to you with 24,000 hours.

You going to tell them, no,
I don't want your money.

Who cares?

How much money was printed?

That's $24,000.

You can take up on your hands.

You have spend put groceries in your
pantry, you know, pay your mortgage

payment or whatever you can spend it.

That was my mindset as a 16 year old.

But as I learned, my uncle was
right, but then later on, my uncle

was wrong because he was like, no,
no, no, this is a buyer's market.

This is when you lend me buying a house.

That's like, no, this is not
what you want to be doing.

And you can buy a house.

Yeah.

But don't be doing these interest
only loans, you know, that's

stupid that doesn't make it.

You don't understand his, no,
you don't understand Michael and

10 years, these properties in
advance and appreciate and value.

And then you can do a refi
and then everything's great.

I was like, no, no, no.

I'm saying you're wrong.

This is wrong.

I see this as a problem.

They're going to get people
caught up and they're going to

get a Keeling, all the problems.

And have made, what were they have made
over a full life of 30 year mortgage.

They're going to make that in the first 10
years, and they still own that property.

And they're going to either
force those individuals to start

paying a higher premium, or
they get to sell it to someone.

That's what I see.

And my uncle basically laughed at me.

You don't know what you're talking about?

It doesn't work like that.

Well, guess what?

He's never told me to my face,
but I guarantee it entered

his mind several times.

He was right.

And I wish that was wrong,
but that's unfortunate.

But a lot of people got caught up.

And a lot of people that had jobs back
then that had those homes that priced

them right out of their house because
their, their jobs couldn't support it.

And a lot of them got two jobs,
you know, working a regular job and

then working a fast food job or a
pizza delivery job or seasonal jobs

just to try and make ends meet.

And then even that it was just
like, you can't keep up whether

the payment jumps up too high.

And then we had the, the loan issue
where when the banks were know, when

we were bailing them out, Yeah, it was
like a year and a half before you could

get a mortgage, even with good credit.

It was hard because they were,
it was a freeze on lending.

They didn't want to do it.

And that was concerning for me
too, because I was looking at

different properties and I was like,
you know, what's going on here?

I got amazing credit.

You know, why can't I get something
to get this property going?

No, no, no.

Uh, we have to wait, we have to do this.

We got to check this.

And I'm like, well, That will that part
and that period of time, that was scary.

And folks that were chatting in
their house, they couldn't sell it

because nobody would pay for that.

And they couldn't do another
purchase to get into a cheaper house.

They were stuck.

So what do you do?

You got to go back to renting and
what can you rent when everybody

else is doing the same thing?

All rental properties, rental, apartments,
condos, all these sides of things.

They were real quick gathered up
because people were walking away

from their house in foreclosure.

This is leaving their houses the way it
is going in and stealing the cabinetry,

selling it to people, you know, and
some of the general contractors and

the people that, you know, use it
in their own, their own purchases.

But we have all that stuff behind us that
hasn't really come home to roost yet.

Everybody thinks it's just
like, okay, that's all gone now.

No, it's not.

It's still.

It's still lingering.

It's loose.

Those effects are still lingering
in the marketplace and the

derivatives are still there too.

All they do is repackage them.

That's scary.

You know, they didn't just
walk away from all that stuff.

These banks are still
holding all that stuff.

They just wrapped it up in
different wrapping paper.

So.

I would love nothing more to be able to
say, it's, you know, break days ahead.

It's not

all right.

So let's stop.

It's going to be staying where it is.

The, uh, We're block here.

I'm looking for that to give away.

If we get on the other side of
the fairway, you got to stop.

We'll stay where it's at.

I'll try to move it to break.

Even if it gets down to below this down
close candle at see what that closes.

If we get down to 1 27 big figure, then
I'll take the stock down to breakeven.

Otherwise, it stops, stays where it's at.

I'll take a full stop at that point.

And then I'll come back, uh, around,
uh, 10 30 I'll post to the, uh, case

studies thread and see if there's anything
we can do in terms of updating it.

It could come up here and stop me out
before I even get a chance to do that.

But I'll leave the stop where it is.

It goes to the stop.

It will be reaching for the bus stops and
I will not be taking another operative.

This trading day.

Okay.

So I'm going to escape
was y'all good afternoon.

The trade stays open until then.

I will be looking for an opportunity
to take something off in here.

If it can get down there and then I'll
leave the second portion for this.

Okay.

And I will talk to you
later on this afternoon.

Again, you got two lessons tonight for
the bond market, uh, content at 9:00 PM.

And I will catch up with you later on
that today at the daily recap, tell

them which good luck and good trip.