All language subtitles for Lesson 4.2 Bearish Seasonal (J) EN

Welcome back folks.

This is less than 4.2.

Continuing our teaching on
applying seasonal tendencies

to higher timeframe analysis.

Okay.

For me highlighting our topic of
seasonals with a deeper focus on bear

seasonals in higher timeframe analysis.

And our market of study for
this teaching is going to be

the New Zealand dollar or Kiwi.

Okay.

And when we looked at lesson 4.1,
we looked at the Canadian dollar and

we noticed that while the seasonal
tendencies that I'm sharing here,

they're seasonal tendencies with the
utilization of the futures market.

So since it's the futures market and
we're using the seasonal tenancy,

it's important to understand that the
seasonal tendency may, if it's bullish

for the seasonal tendency chart, For a
particular time of year that may or may

not be bullish for a particular pair.

Like for instance, in 4.1
lesson, we use that us CAD pair.

And since it seasonal tendency is on
the Canadian dollar, we are looking

at a time when the Canadian dollar
seasonal tendency for the futures

contract would be bullish in our
seasonal tendency, but we'll be buried.

In the U S CAD pear, because
it would be inverted.

That would be a little bit of a
sticking point for someone that's

this rushing through this lesson,
but we're going to talk about.

Uh, currency this time where
it's going to move basically in

tandem with what you expect to see
in the seasonal tendency chart.

We're looking at the Kiwi or the
New Zealand dollar, which is a

calm doll, a commodity currency.

That means the currency is
traded as a futures market.

This teaching also is going to go a
little bit deeper in the understanding of

seasonal tenants and how I employ them.

Um, I've been able to call.

Significant price swings in the
marketplace using hard timeframe

charts, and many of them YouTube
have witnessed that happen.

Some of you seen it in this mentorship.

All of it comes by way of the
things I'm teaching in these

two lessons here, 4.1 4.2.

The way we're going to approach
the seasonal tendencies in this

teaching is going to be applying.

Bear seasonal.

But we're also going to segue into
how this helps us get in sync with

hopefully a quarterly shift in the
marketplace, which is the goal of

position trading or long-term trading.

As I understand it and teach it
powerful moves that occur on these

hard timeframe charts, monthly,
weekly, and daily, they're in the

hundreds of pips for foreign exchange.

So.

It behooves you to look
at this marketplace when

these hard timeframe trusts.

Cause regardless of what type
of trade you're going to be.

And if you can use seasonal tenancies,
like a roadmap, it's literally like

knowing the most probable direction.

Certain times of the year for
certain currencies or markets,

because it's not limited to just
foreign exchange or currencies Islam.

It's limited to nothing really.

I mean, everything has a seasonal
tendency, but you have to study it and

go through a long process of compiling.

All that data to get to the outcome
would highlight a seasonal tendency

where it rests most predominantly.

If you're looking at this chart here,
Um, obviously you can see that there are

certain points in where price generally
on the blue line and on the red line.

Okay.

And it's comparing a long period blue
line of time and a shorter period of data.

And when both of them move in tandem
direction, in other words, they all

are both basically moving in the same
direction, up or down at any given

particular time that highlights a
high probability seasonal trends.

Now when it gets real muddy and
it's choppy back and forth, then it

makes it a little bit less likely.

There's a seasonal tendency there,
but just quickly going over this chart

here, it should be obvious to you.

What time of year there is a significant
decline in price expected and when

should there be a significant increase
in price for the Kiwi dollar let's zoom

in and take a closer look and we'll
break this down into real specifics.

Okay.

We have that same sharp
now, just zoomed in.

And I want to highlight a few things
going into this, these seasonal

tendencies while we're trying to
aim at where the conditions lie,

that would set up a quarterly shift.

In other words, a move that.

Two to three months to unfold.

We're using these higher timeframe
charts with the attempt to hone in on

an area where we can capture several
hundred pips in a long-term position,

trade or looking for the ideas to get us
in sync with the institutional mindset

where the direction of the market
should go on these hard timeframes.

Since it's the smart money entities that
move price on these hard timeframe charts.

We know there's a high probability.

If there's a certain time of year
or a tendency for the market to

rally or decline, and it's shown
itself over a large sample size of

data, the blue line in the Kiwi here
represents 19 years worth of data.

The red line represents 15 years worth of.

And the only thing it's doing is,
is contracting for 15 years worth of

data versus 19 years worth of data.

The seasonal tendencies pretty
much are lock in tandem.

You can see pretty much it's
the same scenario all the time,

because it's traded in March
contracts, June contracts, September

contracts, and December contracts.

They are the futures
contract delivery months.

In other words, these are the months
that you would be buying or selling.

If you're gonna be trading.

As you can see the June contract
has the strongest tendency to

rally and decline all in that same
contract month, beginning, first

trading day and last trading day
before the contract would expire.

Then December's contract has a very
strong tendency to rally late in the year.

And.

Understanding that it's pretty
obvious that if you're going to be

trading the Kiwi, you only focusing
on the June contract and the December

contract, that's the powerful nature of
understanding these seasonal tendencies.

And it doesn't mean that the March
contract won't see specific price action

that sets up moves that we see in the
June and December contract, or that

we won't see things in the September
contract that would lead into this.

Contract month unfolding.

As we see here in a seasonal tendency.

They're not paying a see as they're
not be all end all, but their roadmaps

as to what price has done in the past
historically year after year, by compiling

the data, we can see that these contract
delivery months do this type of thing

over a large sample size of data.

Will it happen every single year?

Absolutely not.

In fact, I've went back all the way to
2007, and we're going to look at every

single year from 2007 to now, and we're
going to see what influence the seasonal

tendencies had and how it helped us, or
would have helped us say it that way.

We can go back in time and look at how
hypothetically knowing this information

back then we could have used it to get
in sync with a quarterly shift, or it

could have been just a unique trade
set up by itself since we're focusing

primarily on embarrass condition.

We're going to be looking for areas
in which the market is most likely

to see a significant drop in price.

Now we can go back in time and look
at the years like we're going to now

and use it to build our confidence in
the fact that the seasonal tendencies

do in fact, hold up over long periods.

Now again, we're looking at about
nine years or so worth of seasonal

Tennessee price study in the New
Zealand dollar futures contract.

Now this is not to say.

You're going to see the exact same
type of move dollar for dollar pit for

PIP in the foreign exchange market.

But by far and large, they're
going to be moved, moving in

the same direction generally.

So have that as a point of
reference when we go over this,

because I'm not trying to force a.

Pitt to point ratio of a
movement in both the futures

and the foreign exchange market.

There's going to be slight disc new
difference between the two, but by

far and large, you're going to see do
they generally move in the same area?

So if we're going to look at this with a
sober mind and understand that yes, there

are opportunities to be a seller in Kiwi
and are some high probability conditions,

certain times of the year where it
positions itself for an opportunity to

sell off with a great deal of tendency to
do so, uh, seasonally and historically.

But we're going to focus on how we can
use these bears ideas to get us in sync

with a long-term bullish quarterly shift.

Now you're probably saying,
well, wait a minute.

Am I going?

You're you're, you're
calling outside the lines.

You know, we're supposed to be talking
about bearish seasonal tendencies.

Yes.

Um, the teaching is really healthy.

Use bearish seasonal tendencies,
not just my optically and only

focus on just being a short seller.

We gotta be able to understand that
that short selling opportunity may

be leading us to a quarterly move
on his heart timeframe charts.

So a decline while it could be traded,
we have to be mindful that there's

certain times of the year when the Kiwi
has a predisposed nature to go higher.

So take a look at a few examples in here.

There's obviously this one I like
is a mid February to mid March.

Really significant a time point where you
can see there's a really nice movement

between the red and the blue line.

That means the 19 year seasonal tendency
in the 15 year seasonal tendency.

And again, I want to remind you
that it's taking 19 years worth

of price action year after year.

What did these months
deliver in terms of price?

And you can see here the mid
February to mid March time period.

The red and the blue lines.

And again, I'll remind you here
that the 19 year is the blue

and the 15 year is the red.

And what it is is a compiling of 19 years
worth of data showing the historical

movement of the March delivery contract
and the June contract, the September

contract and the December contract.

And by showing a historical record
and compiling the data, the overall

price direction generally is from
mid February down to mid March.

There's a strong tendency for
the Kiwi dollar to decline.

And you can see it very clearly in
both the contrasting 19 years' worth

of data and 15 years worth of data.

So if it was the shift in
and out between the two.

Um, then it's most likely, probably not
a good time to be a buyer or seller,

but when they both move in the same
direction and it's a sizeable price

swing, as we can see here in the shaded
area, it's in my opinion, that it's

a pretty good chance that we'll see a
decline near the second one there'll

be noteworthy of is that noticed it.

If we drop down into mid March
and in April, the market tends to

have a significant rally at that.

And it rallies up to about me and
both the 19 and 15 year seasonal

tendency, uh, compilation shows that
it does in fact, make a high in may

and then it sells off again, giving
us another bear seasonal tendency.

And then we have an area where we
have consolidation between around

the June month going into July.

But it makes another seasonal low
around June and July and it bounces

bullishly and then it sells off again
around mid August, down into October.

But look what happens in September and
October, it generally makes a significant

point of bullishness and puts the, a
large degree of buying in your scope.

As far as the trader you'd look
at buying the Kiwi around that

September, October time period.

When we use seasonal tendencies, the way
we want to use them are limited only to

what the current market conditions are.

We do not go into our charts,
forcing the seasonal tendency.

For instance, we're not forcing the idea
that Kiwi has to make a high or a top.

Therefore we're going to sell in
may, in this whole, onto it forever.

And then wait for it to be June,
July in this collect our money.

That's not what we're saying here.

Uh, what I want you to focus on is
that if this seasonal tendency is

in fact true, and I believe it shows
validity here, the idea is, is there

something technically in price that
would support that seasonal tendency?

Are we in a bearish market?

Did we rally up into a bear shorter block?

Did we run an old high?

Do we see a market structure?

Have we in fact, been moving
up for the last two or three.

And then are we likely to sell off
because of an over bought premium market?

And then maybe we would anticipate seeing
some breakdown in the marketplace and

then we can take a short or position
ourselves for a bearish move lower.

So it's a matter of lining up what
the current market conditions are.

It's not just take this thing,
apply it to the marketplace,

and you're going to get rich.

It's taking these ideas when there are
strong tendency for the market to move one

side or the other, any particular time of.

As you can see across this charter,
several other opportunities you can use.

You don't have to be a long-term
position trader, which is what I'm

focusing on here using the bearish moves.

Okay.

That seen in mid February to mid March.

And then you have another move in may
that takes you down to June, July.

So there's other
opportunities you can use.

You can see that there's a typical
sell-off in the first week or so of

January that goes down into February.

There's another sell off that takes
place around mid June, down into the

first or second week of July, both lines
blue and red are in agreement with that.

And then you see another sell
off that takes place around mid

August down into the September,
October time period, making it.

But there is a small short-term
little mood that drops off mid

September down into October.

That's the one that generally sets up
a really strong buying opportunity.

So we're going to be a quarterly
shift trader if we are going to trade

these seasonal tendencies and we are
shorter on that time period, just

be mindful that around September,
October generally makes it a very

strong tendency for the, uh, the key.

But now let's go back and have
a contrasting view as well.

Since we're focusing on bears
seasonal tendencies and we're using

them in the hard timeframe analysis,
we can take all of these bearish

ideas and trade them respectively.

Or we can go into the marketplace and
say, okay, I'm going to anticipate

these bear seasonal tendencies.

Not true.

I'm going to anticipate them, showing
me the signs that the market is.

In fact, dropping down into the
quarterly bullish scenarios that I

could be a buyer so we can use bearish
seasonal tendencies to trade with,

or we can use them as guides to lead
us to the next trading opportunity.

That would be a quarterly shift.

This teaching's going to show you both.

Okay.

We're going to go from 2007.

All we got to 2006.

But if you're going to be a bullish
trader on Kiwi, and we're going to be

looking for bullish quarterly shifts,
they occur in March to April time

period, that jelly making a low, okay.

Make a note of this because
when we go through each.

I want you to keep these
reference points in mind.

We are focusing on offs between mid
February to mid March, and we're

focusing on selloffs around may going
into June and July, but primarily we're

looking at how these moves could set up
bullish conditions for quarterly shifts.

In the first one we're watching
is it sets up a move between

March and April for quarterly low.

The next one is June, July.

That you could expect a seasonal low
to form for that quarter to be a buyer.

And then the other one is
September to October giving us

a strong tendency to be a buyer.

Okay.

So now think about this for a minute.

I just outlined the general roadmap on
what Kiwi dollar does on a 12 month cycle.

Now, if that didn't flourish,
You're not paying attention

now you probably didn't get it.

And he didn't, you didn't register
you if you're a new trader

trolley went right over your head.

But think about what we've just did.

We've outlined the macro view on what Kiwi
dollar does generally over a course of

12 months, they're seasonal tendencies.

They shift in and out of the marketplace
and depending on what the market

conditions are for that particular time
or that year, One seasonal tendency.

It's going to be favored over the other.

If we're in a bullish market, obviously
the March, April, June, July, and

September, October time periods are going
to be phenomenal buying opportunities.

If we're in a bearish market,
that means mid February to mid

March is going to be amazing.

Sell-off and Mae is going to be an
amazing sell off and you have August

can create a nice sell off as well.

Lead me down to the fall.

There's also another long in here that
I don't have an arrow to highlight,

but it's the last week of November
going into the first week of December.

That's a nice little
buying opportunity as well.

So in your notes as we go
through these slides, okay.

And you can obviously go after
you watch the video and go

back and look at it as well.

But as we go through each year, just be
mindful that March, April, June, July,

September, October are really strong
buying opportunities when it's bull.

When it's not bullish, we can
focus primarily on being a seller.

Look for selling scenarios around
the February to March time period

and may into June for sell offs
and in August into September

giving us weak points to sell on.

So let's go into our first year
and start breaking this down and

give us some real examples to
see if it really does appear in.

Okay.

You can see here.

This is 2007.

And what I'm showing is December from the
previous year, 2006, all the way up to

the January 1st of the following year.

So we're getting the entire year
shown in every slide that we show.

This is 2007 price chart.

And here we have mid February
into March that weakness that

we would expect to see bears.

Okay.

And also notice also that we have a
small little decline here as well in

may, both seasonal tendencies while
in contrast to the larger moves.

So there's several hundred pips on
these declines here, but now notice

also these sell-offs that we expected
bearishness in the marketplace.

They set up what opportunities remember
we have that March, April time.

For Bush scenarios or expected bullish
scenarios for tendencies to go higher,

June, July, and September, October.

Can you not see those occurring here?

We have the March April time
period, creating the very low

and look at the move up from the.

It's several hundred pips and then we
have the may June decline, but June starts

off that rally that sends us all the
way up to the 81 big figure, huge move.

Then we have another opportunity
where the market gets down and trades

off into the September time period,
where we've seen that September,

October seasonal tendency to rally.

So while we're focusing on the bears
seasonal tendency, The other seasonal

tendencies that we've went through at the
beginning of this teaching, when we're

looking at the actual seasonal Tennessee
chart, all of the seasonal tendencies are

going to have some measure of influence.

Now, again, keeping in mind with
the current market conditions

are at that particular year.

It's going to be helpful for you
in that regard, because again,

we're not trying to form fit just
a seasonal tendency in price.

We're looking for clues justify
why that scenario would be.

More inclined to unfold in the other.

In other words, is it better to be a
buyer on the bullshit seasonal tendency

or better to be a seller on the bear
seasonal tendency and years, sometimes

we'll work in concert with them on
where the bearish move will lead

into the bullish move and the bullish
move Willy into the bearish move.

That's perfect market symmetry,
and that rarely exists.

But sometimes in my 23 plus years
doing it, I've seen it a few

times where it's been astonished.

As we go to our next year in Kiwi,

here's 2008 for the Kiwi.

And obviously everybody
remembers what happened in 2008.

The market though, in bloated, we had
the financial meltdown and we have

mid March, I'm sorry, mid February to
mid-March, uh, creating the actual hot.

And the Kiwi.

And then we had to, uh, the Mae
creating another high here, where

we sold off as well and notice
because we were all completely all

bearish on all foreign currencies.

Um, the Kiwi was no exception here.

It just kept on falling
the rest of the year.

So you have to also keep that in mind too.

There's going to be.

Um, big picture macro events that
are going to take precedence over

whatever short-term quarterly effect
that you may be expecting, even if

it's a seasonal tendency that holds
up for a long period of time, you're

going to have these wildcard scenarios
where it just isn't going to pan out

regardless of what you would expect.

There's 2009, and we can see
the sell-off between, uh, mid

February going into March.

Uh, that decline in air was
600 pips and we see also.

During the may period, we did not
get any decline at all on the bear

side, but in contrast, keeping in mind
how we're using these bear seasonal

tendencies, the one that dropped down
in February and the March leads us

into the March April bullish scenario.

And it was a very strong
buying opportunity there.

And then we had the month of
June, July, we had a consolidation

and July sent us home.

Going into the late fall, October
highs, September and October

had it just a continuation,

2010, you can see here for the Kiwi.

We had basically a flat market in mid
February to March, nothing bullish,

nothing bearish, but we had our may the.

And look, how many it's this thing moved?

This thing moves about 700 pips
as a decline in the month of may.

But again, that may decline set up
the June, July bullish, seasonal

tendency that took off and sent prices.

And we also see there was a
scenario for the bearish August

to October time period, August.

We had a little decline which had a
small seasonal tendency to be barest.

If you go back and look at the slide
and all it did, was it retraced back

down into a bear sh Canada, which is
a bull shorter block and an uptrend.

And it rally off that 70 big figure
moving all the way up to 79, 50 sets,

950 points or pips that it moved.

Offer just retracing into an
area at which institutional order

flow would give us bullishness.

And then we had the September,
October time period, give us that

last little leg price higher from
that 7,400 to the 79 50 level.

So 550 pips there as well using the
seasonal tendencies as a roadmap.

Okay.

We can see 2011 here.

CBR declined mid February,
going into mid March.

We had a nice decline there, but that
leads us to what the bullish March,

April seasonal tendency, nails it,
look at the rally off of that huge

extrapolated move from that time period.

And then we have a small
little decline from.

Our may time period, where we expect
bearishness and that's about 350 pips

just in mate on a decline, but finds us
trading back down into the January highs.

So old resistance turns support there.

The market creates that retracement down
in may just to set up another leg higher

June July gives us a nice seasonal.

Off of the previous down candle,
which is a bullet shorter block

around that 80 big figure.

And then it rallies all the way
up to 8,800 to 800 pips using the

seasonal tendency where we saw a
decline in may and it rallied away

and created a longer term price move.

Very significant price moves higher.

And in September, October gave us a
swing from the 7,500 to the 8,200.

So there's 700 pips.

Okay, 2012, you see, we had our
decline mid February to mid March,

several hundred pips decline about,
uh, 400 or so on the downside.

And then in may, we had a very significant
sell off in price mood, almost 800 pips.

On the downside in the month of may.

And that gives us that June
low seasonally, where we

saw a bullishness expected.

And I think took off from June lows
from 7,500 all the way up to 8,450.

So that's a massive move.

2013.

Okay.

We see our decline here in
mid February to mid March.

Several hundred pips as well.

And then a, another decline in may,
which leads us to our bullish June,

July low, and it rallies away from that.

And in 2014, we don't get anything
bearish at all between February.

Mark was in consolidation and
rally out of the consolidation.

So it's not expected to
be a barest area there.

We're looking for continuation
on the upside because it's

left area consolidation.

And in may, we have a little
bit of a retracement that leads

to a June rally creating the
high up at the ADA big figure.

And we had a.

Sell off in mid August, which
was the other bearish opportunity

taken us down into October.

Again, look at your seasonal tendency
about the first or second week of

August, all the way down into October.

And you can see that seasonal tendency
takes effect in this market here.

Okay.

On 2015, you see, we had a
little bit of a move down here

and mid February to mid March.

And again, these are weekly.

To be mindful that we're not looking
at, uh, you find minute charts here.

And then we have our decline
in may seasonally speaking, and

June, July just kept on being.

Which led us into the next bullish
scenario, which is the quarterly

shift that would be bullish at
occurs in September, October.

And that gives us a really nice
rally from the 62 50 level, up

to the 68 50 level, almost 69.

It's a very, very handsome
rally from that price point.

Finally for 2016 unchanged
consolidation, nothing happening

in mid February to mid-March.

We have our decline in may comes
down into previous Bush order

blocks and rallies away created an
alert higher high up into 74 50.

So it moved from the may.

Into the week before June rallying
away from the 67 big figure

all the way up to almost 75.

Big figure.

So rather significant price
moves as a closing note.

I want you to think about how these ideas
lead to a roadmap idea of where price

should go generally speaking, and when
to focus in on very significant price

moves, when they, when do they usually.

See, it's one thing to say, okay, I
can see when an indicator bearishly

diverges and it should give us a cell
signal, or it should some suggest some

consolidation in a strong uptrend.

We can understand that, but it doesn't
really tell us when the divergence

should occur and seasonal tenancies.

Tell us a specific time element that
escapes most people that don't use them.

Most traders don't even
have any understanding.

These things exist.

Now because you've been exposed to
them with a great deal, more detail,

much more than we saw when I was
teaching in a free tutorial area.

We can see how we blend these two ideas,
time and price with quarterly shifts.

And when the seasonal tendencies come
into the picture as well, there's a

strong tendency for the market to react.

When a few things come into confluence.

If we have a seasonal
tendency to suggest bullish.

When the market's already predisposed
to go higher because it's in a bullish

market and it's an, a time of the day
when the market should be bullish.

And it's also at a time when the market
is indicating that interest rates

are supporting that bullish idea.

It's also supported in the dollar index.

When all these things come together,
they dovetail into a beautiful tapestry

where you're going to see a profitable.

And your analysis now, as long as
you stick to those types of trades,

you're going to do very, very well.

You don't need a whole lot of trades
throughout the year and notice that

there's not a whole lot of overlapping
going on between what we've shown so far.

Certain currency pairs have
certain seasonal tendencies.

Now by far and large, they're all
going to bend in the, to the dollar.

And we're going to have a 4.3
teaching with seasonal tendencies,

where I'm going to show you the
seasonal tenants of the dollar index.

And we're actually apply that
to other studies as well.

But for now, I want you to be encouraged.

Now.

I don't want you to get so excited.

You feel like you won a lottery.

Okay.

But the seasonal tendencies
are very, very powerful.

And when you use them in the right
context, they lead to an analysis

perspective that again, most
aren't going to be able to attend.

Everyone looks at just price action alone.

But if you look at what price has
done historically, and dare I say

it hindsight, it's a gold mine of
information because it leads to and

understanding what should take place.

And it shows that there's yes,
there is manipulation in the

marketplace, but by far and large,
these markets move by a certain.

And they repeat themselves
over and over and over again.

And if something comes to the
marketplace to upset what would be

otherwise a bearish time of the year,
but yet it posts something bullish.

For instance, look what we're seeing
here mid February to mid March.

We're not seeing bears in this there
we're seeing consolidation in the market

rallies away and it falls in may, but it
only falls down to the mid consolidation

point or around a 67 big figure.

Then it creates another rally.

If you remember all through 2016,
I, I was telling everyone that the

New Zealand dollar was going higher.

It was strong, relatively speaking, just
like the Aussie dollar was those two

currencies were the ones that held up
the most during 2016, when all the other

payers variously moods lower against the
strength of the dollar also noticed that

we had that sell off as a short term.

Um, Verus idea in January.

It actually materializes here as well.

So think about if you're a day
trader, if you're a short-term trader.

Okay.

You can use those ideas to get you in
sync with long-term position trades on

these higher timeframe, seasonal tenants.

You're gonna be able to
blend all these things.

By the time you're done with this
mentorship, you'll be able to go in

and dissect any market or any market.

You'll be able to dissect any
asset class and know right away.

If there's an opportunity.

If there isn't an opportunity
to move to the sideline.

And by having a seasonal tendency in
your toolbox, it'll give you when you

should be looking for something that's
really loaded in your favor, the move,

because seasonally and historically
these times of the year in this

particular currency, there are times
when it makes significant price moves.

And if we can focus on trading on
those timeframes and those setups

alone, we are really basically
framing high probabilities.

You're not going to get perfect winners,
but you're going to have high probability

conditions where even if you use this
as a directional bias tool, it'll help

you in all facets of your trading.

No matter what discipline you use.

Swing trade, short term day, trade
or scalp until next lesson wish

you good luck and good trading.