All language subtitles for video_2018-09-11_17-49-15

Got new folks.

Welcome to a new week.

Today's Monday, September 10th, 2018.

Brooklyn economic calendar
can be a little bit of news.

Come out on GBP today, which lent
well to an upside move, which we'll

look at when we get to the charts.

Tomorrow's economic calendar.

We have more high-impact news and a medium
impact news for DVP average earnings in.

During the London session, then we have
on Wednesday, uh, crude oil inventories

opportunity for dollar CAD pair there.

And we have news embargo lifting at
8:30 AM for New York open PPI numbers.

So we should see some movement in the
majors against a dollar on Thursday.

This is going to be the firework show.

Um, we have GBP, uh, I think
we'll probably see some rather

explosive movement for cable.

I think it's going to try to catch
up to your dollar this week, or at

least it gives me the cation by way
of the charts that it may try to do.

So, so we have monetary policy and
official bank rate, and then we have.

The Euro ECB press conference, and
later on CPI, number four, the dollar.

And then we have an FOMC member to
actually speaking at 10:00 AM and 1:15 PM.

So Thursday's going to
be a wild, wild circus.

It's going to be a lot of
volatility on that particular day.

So it's going to be beneficial
for you to try to take.

Position early on and maybe
leave a piece on to capture some

continuation on Thursday's volatility.

And in Friday we have bank of
England speaker and then core retail

sales for the news at New York open
and then retail Sayers, a number

is linked to the dollar index.

So we'll probably see
some last of the week.

Flurry of price action.

Best opportunities are to
look ahead of what's going to

most likely move in Thursday.

That means positioning on Tuesday and our
Wednesday, and then taking hopefully a

large portion, 80% or more of your trade
off, and then leave the remaining balance

on for the expansion that is most of
the Shirley going to happen on Thursday.

So let's go through the
charts and take a look.

Okay folks, we're looking at the
dollar index is the daily chart.

We're going to keep our analysis
on the daily for this week.

I want you to focus on the hard timeframe
PE rays and the levels that we're

looking for for price action this week.

All right.

So we were kind of like stuck in this
little, tiny little range in here.

It looks as if we've had these high.

This high price ran up,
hit our 96 98 level.

Go back and look at
their videos back then.

You'll see what that levels
pertaining to went back below it.

Hit it here, swept through a little bit
in here, failed to get into it here.

It looks like this is the
dirty work for right now.

Okay.

So this may be a quarterly shift
in play for a week or dollar

this being an enemy entered.

Long-term.

Hi.

No, I'm not calling up top.

And the dollar.

So be very careful about
what I'm saying here.

I am only looking for
a run to the sell side.

Liquidity holes noted here.

Now this one's not noted because
it's essentially here as well, but

I really, I really like this one.

Okay.

I really liked this one.

I liked the liquidity void.

It's over here as well.

There's this my eye.

Every single time I pull up
the daily chart on the dollar.

My eye goes right to here.

Okay.

And.

Sure we could have moved higher
last week, but we didn't.

Um, we did rally a little bit.

We didn't go a great deal of distance
and we moved basically sideways.

Okay.

So I'd like to see it continuously
move lower and make an attempt to

get down here and run these stops.

Even if we are eventually
going to go higher.

For instance, say we go down
here, take out these lines.

We stab through it.

Don't go to these lows at all.

This goes through here and
it rejection trades higher.

That to me would be bullshit.

I'd be looking for the 90 sevens.

Okay.

On dollar, because it has stayed in
this little tiny range here, but we

are still looking at a larger draw on
liquidity that has not been tapped.

That means the sell side liquidity pools
that are shown here on a daily chart.

Those are.

In my opinion, the most
logical levels of reach okay.

Where the market's wanting to go to.

Uh, the reason why I say that is because
it's the path of least resistance.

So if we don't have a whole lot
above us in terms of liquidity,

that reach for, because we only have
that 96, 98 in this short-term high.

Uh, to me, that's not as juicy as
it would be to take out the trailing

stop-losses on long say you had been
long dollar, so a run on here or run

on here and specifically aiming here.

I'd like to see that transpire over
the course of the coming weeks.

Uh, obviously what the bank rate for
GBP and the news from ECB this week,

there could be all catalysts that
leads to a large range expansion.

On the dollar, which would obviously
translate in the same thing, performing

currencies, I E fiber and cable.

So going into this week, you focusing
primarily for setups on Tuesday and

Wednesday and looking, hopefully peel
off something, maybe leave 20% of

the original position on for maybe
a little bit of a firework show on

Thursday, because we have all that
economic news coming out that day.

Uh, I'd like to be able to hopefully
have something in the market or on the

line for Thursday's volatility, but
having something greater than 20% of the

original position, if you can muster that.

In other words, if you can get something
in and pull something out of the market,

initially during Tuesday and Wednesdays
trading relative to the, what we're

describing here, it would be beneficial
for you to take the lions portion of the.

Off at 80% and then go into Thursday's
trading with a small piece or exercise,

uh, you know, patience and discipline and
say, I'd rather not be a part of that.

And just take the full position
off on Tuesday or Wednesday, and

you can get your opportunity.

Should you get one at all?

And there's no real guarantee
that you will, but we always have

to think in terms of optimism.

Right.

So you're a dollar we're looking at,
um, another consolidation week for it.

Uh, we did not have an
expansion on the upside.

We didn't really respect
this or block all that much.

Um, we did come down and sweet the low
here and the low here with today's candle.

Um, I'm going to share with the
charter members, the 1 15 30.

Run to liquidity and all of the things
that are sailing about that move.

I mentioned on Twitter, one of their
students said that they were looking

to cover a year, a dollar short.

And my response was that I was expecting
to go about 30, more pips new south.

And that really essentially
winds out with 1 15 30 and 1 15

30 is really just this little.

Okay.

If you look at that, um, that is 1 15 33.

So if we're looking for a run on
liquidity below 33, what would the round

number or five level be next below it?

Third.

Okay.

So today's low is only
one pit lower than that.

And I think if we went a 1 15 29,
so again, I have notes on my lower

timeframe for the charter members.

So we're just going to keep
our commentary, uh, specific

to the daily because that's
where we're trying to teach.

For directional bias and higher
timeframe, institutional perspective.

So I think that we have these
by stops in the cross hairs.

We have obviously this old high as well.

It just it's too, too clean up here.

You know, even if we go up here to end
in and completely reverse in that would

be reasonable then, but I just don't like
this idea of leaving these equal highs

in here, even if we were going lower.

Um, I don't know.

I just think that it makes more sense
for it to run up there and clean that up.

I do like the consolidation we
had here in a drop down to me.

This is like a longer term fractal.

I teach for the Judas swing.

Okay.

So we have a market protraction,
it drops down, picks up some

liquidity and then expands back up.

Uh, we do have a short term
swing high broken here.

And here.

So we had to more or less two stages of
market structure breaking to the upside.

So even though we had these equal
lows here, uh, violated today

and rejected, uh, that's actually
constructive in my opinion.

So I'd like to see it more
or less, try to grind house.

And get into these buy-side
liquidity pools up in here.

Um, again much like a showed
with the dollar index.

Um, I like these equal highs, which is
more or less the mirror image of what

we see in the dollar, but in the form of
equal highs here for, uh, Euro dollar.

So I think that focusing
this week still with a model.

Bullish expansion.

Um, that to me, that's what
I'm personally looking for now.

What changes that if we
take out today's low.

Okay.

If we trade lower than this and
then we'll probably go, I'm going

to have to come back all the
way down into this level here.

And that high is 1 14 45, which could
be 1 14 50, if it trades to that point.

Um, It will probably want to
rechallenge that low at a later time.

But right now, as it is respecting
the current market structure,

seasonal tendency now is in play.

Um, we do have more or less neutral status
on the cot for fiber or your dollar,

uh, in terms of the futures contract.

But we do have a pretty
modest, um, not much.

We have a, a pretty major.

Met long position by the
commercials in the British pound.

So if we use that information to
me, it warrants at least a probing

of long, still in Euro and pound.

But given the market structure,
that's shown here, I'd like to see

again, today's low, be maintained,
not traded below, and then expand up.

I think we'll pick up some acceleration.

Should we get above this candle here?

Okay.

Uh, there's a lot of large funds
that will be buying strength.

Okay.

Breakout type thing.

If they see a run up above this high
here, there's going to be a lot of.

Great in there.

And we're so close to this high here,
which has been again, very close to

the proximity of these equal high.

So I think once we get above this high
here, then we can really expand and

have large range day or the days plural.

But until we get above this high
here, we'll probably to see small

ranges and the big run up into here.

Because once they start really
getting above this high here,

they don't want anyone that's
short to take their stop-loss off.

They're going to want
to leave it in place.

Okay.

And the only way they do that is if they
get to it quicker than they can pull it.

So that's what I'm looking for for your
so small ranges, biases upside, but

large ranges after this heist broken.

And I gave you the reasons, uh, just
now for that thinking, uh, cable.

We did see a nice pop today.

We have again, some clean levels
and here we did reach above these

equal highs here for intraday
target, but I like these equal highs.

Um, Narrative on what I showed with
the equal lows for the dollar index.

Again, buy-side liquidity pools
resting as noted on the chart.

Um, we do have the swing high
here and the swing high here.

So we have two stages of market
structure to the upside being broken.

Um, I'd like to see this one, really
try to, um, move more or less.

Uh, more explosively than Euro dollar
and everything it's in play for the

cot suggests that is most likely going
to happen because the commercials has

shown, um, I think it was last week.

It was, if it's not forgive me, it's,
I'm so scatterbrained because of all

the admin stuff that I got to do around
this time of the month, the commitment

traders report, a graph that posted in
the most recent, um, Weekly commentary

for the pound pound had a really nice
net long position by the commercials.

And it's respectable now coupling
that with what we've been following

for here for a couple months.

Now we are in a bullish seasonal tendency.

So now here we have, we have
market structure to the upside.

We have liquidity pools noted.

Okay.

We've been watching them for months.

We have seen the market structure.

Support the idea of the
bullish seasonal tendency.

And now we also have the positioning of
the commitment of traders report showing

commercials, net long, heavily net loan.

So they have bought all
through all this decline.

Now, the way they get out of that net long
position is as prices starting to rally,

they will start selling off that net loss.

Where do they want to sell it above
these highs, these highs, and this

high, this high, and even back
here, if they can get up to it

and get back to this inefficiency.

So I'm looking and I'm trying to find
that quarterly move to the upside.

We may have it, but we actually have
to be mindful that, that our economic

calendar this week suggest that
we could have a pretty explosive.

Move in cable from a macro
standpoint, look what we have in play.

They have commercials.

So then once we have the smart
money positioned well ahead, we

have the market structure break.

We have a seasonal tendency.

That's bull.

And we also have clearly defined
liquidity pools for the dollar

index from a contrarian perspective.

In other words, if we're focusing
primarily look to be long on cable, then

that means we are bearish on dollar.

And because of our counterparty PD,
rays and areas of liquidity, where

it's going to be a draw on price.

In other words, the buy stops
here for cable and to sell

stocks for the dollar index.

We have not as clean as I would
like to see it for a symmetrical.

Price action.

Everything being perfect.

Uh, we don't have that, but we
have as close as we can get to it.

And all of the other factors involved.

So we're trading into the
third quarter of the year.

Everything just to me is indicative of
worth a shot to take along this week

and expecting the data on Thursday
to support that upside objective.

That being targeting these by stock liquid
pools as noted on a longer term horizon.

And I can only see beyond.

Um, this high here going
to these equal high.

So that's that's as far as I can see
as the best case scenario for upside

upside expansion, uh, what changes
that is if we trade below today's low.

Okay.

Cause that means we only went
above here and we did some

kind of a sloppy run on stops.

And then it's just going
to continue and move lower.

I don't favor that.

I favor an upside move
in pound and we can.

And selling off in the dollar.

That's I think that's the
side of the marketplace I

would want to be focusing on.

So I'm going to counsel you
guys to look at your price

action and your demo account.

With that perspective in mind, if we
have anything, um, of worth for study

or reflection, I will share it by way
of Twitter, by the way, with link.

And then till I'll talk to you next time,
I wish you good luck and good trading.