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Welcome back folks.
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This is the sixth of eight
teachings and the November, 2016
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curriculum of the ICT mentorship.
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Okay, we're going to be teaching the
macro economic to micro technical,
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macro economic to the micro technical,
macro, economic to the micro technical.
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Okay.
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And I'm showing you here,
one of the secrets to how
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I'm able to call the market.
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As I do, and it's a macro perspective.
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So in other words, it's not
a day trading perspective.
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It's not something that's going to
be, uh, forcing you to look at 15
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minute charts, not even an hourly
chart, not even a four hour chart.
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Okay.
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We're going to be looking at daily
charts only, and you probably
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are wondering why is there a top
secret image here at the bottom?
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Well, below this.
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Is going to be one of the closest
guarded secrets of my repertoire.
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And when I look at the marketplace,
I use this as a barometer to help
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me determine where the long-term
trends of the marketplace is going.
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Now there's a lot of folks that will
scour bank reports and my opinion of bank
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bank reports are this, uh, why would a
bank tell you what their intention is?
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It doesn't make any sense.
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That's like having a football team,
tell you what their players are
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going to be for the super bowl.
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It just doesn't happen.
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So when I look at the marketplace
and I'm looking for a long-term macro
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view, uh, I'm looking for an insight
that would give me a three to six
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month outlook on where currencies
may be heading in one direction.
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And one of the things I use
for that is interest rates and
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the way we find interesting.
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And the way I do it is I'm
looking at the bond market.
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The 30 year treasury market, uh, will give
me the insights I need for interest rates
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on a intermediate to long-term basis.
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Uh long-term to me is three to six months.
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It may not be long-term
for you, but it is for me.
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So what I look for is every three,
every three to four months, there is
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a quarterly shift that takes place.
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And what I mean by that is whatever
trend or whatever market condition is
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prevalent for right now in three to four
months time, there's usually a shift.
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Okay.
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There's either a reversal or it's
an extended period of consolidation
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and then a future resumption of
the trend, or again, you know, a
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reversal, but every three or four
months, I'm looking for a change.
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Because I believe there is a quarterly
shift that takes place in the
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marketplace and you'll learn a lot
that, that later on is mentorship.
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But for now I want to teach you how
I use the bond market and how you
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use the interest rate as a precursor
for where the markets may go.
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Uh, I don't require a
whole lot of fundamental.
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Just sift through.
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I don't believe I have enough time
in the day to go through all that I
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knew there was a lot of folks that
would probably hear me say that.
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And scoff at the notion that,
you know, fundamentals are, you
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know, that's the, that's the
backbone to, to the marketplace.
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You need to know those things and yeah.
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Submission to that is, uh, you
know, who can keep up with that?
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You know, I don't, I don't
have time to keep up with it.
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You know, I'm, I'm, I'm
busy running a life.
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I don't have, I don't have the time to
be sifting through all the information.
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And quite frankly, I'm not that astute
to be able to discern what that data is.
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So what I require is a visual
interpretation of that data.
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And what I subscribed to is
the bond market will tell them.
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If I can read price action in
the bond market and not just the
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bond market, but we're gonna look
at the ten-year modes as well.
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Uh, if we can get a feel for what the
bond market's wanting to do, whether
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it be trade higher or lower, then we
can have a pretty good basis on what
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the interest rate is going to do.
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Okay.
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So what we're looking at is, uh,
about June, July, August time.
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Okay.
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June, July, August time period.
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The top chart here is obviously the
dollar index daily chart and the lower
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chart is the treasury bond market.
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Is it the December contract?
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Okay.
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So December contract for the dollar
index above us in the futures
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market and the December contract for
the bond market on the lower end.
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Okay.
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So the lower chart is the bond
market between July and August.
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There was a high default.
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In the bond market.
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And for those to follow along on the, uh,
Twitter and on my YouTube channel, um,
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this summer, I mentioned that the debt
market is going to have a major decline.
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And I said that that,
that was going to happen.
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I also said it was going
to happen in the blend.
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I said it would happen across
all the debt instruments.
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So basically what I was implying was that
interest rates were going to go higher.
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If interest rates are going to
go higher, that's going to allow
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the dollar index to go higher.
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Okay.
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But when interest rates are going higher,
that means that that the bond market is
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going to drop as the bond market rallies.
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That's a lowering of interest rates.
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And when it drops down in the futures
market for the bond market, that
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is an increase in interest rates.
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Okay.
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Now the 30 treasury bond is the benchmark
for what we have in the U S as our.
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Um, right.
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Well, we put a house on the
market for, uh, for purchase.
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Someone wants to a ball and chain debt
program to pay off a house for 30 years.
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Uh, the interest rate that's
arrived at this market pretty
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much is the benchmark for it.
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Um, there is another interest
rate, uh, asset market that I
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look at, which is the tenure.
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Now look at that and we'll look at
that later on in this teaching here.
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But what I want you to look
at is when the bond market.
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Is creating a high here.
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Okay.
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Uh, at the same time that the dollar
index is making a low K, I want you
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to take a look at what's going on here
in the last week of June, we have the
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dollar index making a low and the market
failed to make a lower, low at the same
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time that the bond market was making
a higher high now in less than five.
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Okay.
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This month teaching, I taught you
the SMT divergence relative to the
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dollar index and foreign currencies.
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That same idea is applied here,
but for an interest rate divergent.
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So in other words, we're
looking at how the bond market
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interacts with the dollar index.
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So around every three, four
months, there's going to be this
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shift that takes place, this
underlying change in the trends.
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It's seen in the dollar index with
the failure to make a lower low.
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At the same time, the bond market made a
higher high market traded softer at the
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same time, all the way into the last week.
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Midway point of August, we saw
consolidation in the bond market as well.
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Then we saw what the movement
higher on the dollar index.
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At the same time, we were seeing
weakness in the bond market, which
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means interest rates are increased.
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Which means now we have the dollar
index pulling back into a down candle,
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which is a bullish sort of block.
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So we can expect to see prices move
higher on the dollar, which will
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do what send the bond market lower.
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So when we see this rally up, it's
returning back to an up candle,
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which is a bare shoulder block and
it sells off again, this sell off.
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Okay.
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Accelerates the buying in the dark.
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So if the dollar is going to
accelerate going higher, let's
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go back to this time period here.
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Okay.
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And reflect on the analysis I
was given in the mentorship.
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You all knew that I was looking
at this particular time period
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right here on the dollar.
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And I said they were going to start going
higher and we're going to be looking
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for that $1 mark dependency 1 0 2 mark.
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And the reason why I suspected
that was going to happen is number
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one, I was looking at the dollar.
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There started with the USD as in
their name or words, like dollar
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CAD, dollar swissy dollar yen.
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Um, I was looking at the dollar CAD
and it just supported the idea that
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we were going to go long here or
start to go higher at the same time.
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The bond market was rallying up
returning back to a bearish order block.
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So I knew what to expect was to see if
we, if we turned the tide here and started
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going lower on bonds that dropped down
and bonds is an increase in interest.
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An increase in interest rates is
going to see a aggressive pouring
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in of funds to buy up the dollar.
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So that's what we're seeing here that,
that, uh, that aggressive rally up the
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market showed a willingness to drop
even lower here on the bond market.
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At the same time, there was a small
little decline at the same time when the
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bond market was dropping small little
deviation from what would be considered
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a normal, that was all attributed to.
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The U S elections.
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Nobody knew what to expect with
the elections, except for ICT.
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He said, Trump going to win.
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So obviously Trump won overnight.
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The futures market were tanking
and the dollar index sank and the
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Dow Jones futures were down like
750 points at one time overnight.
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And all of a sudden the very next one.
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Everything was peaches and cream.
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It's been rocketing up
since and 10 days in a row.
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The market's been rallying up for
the dollar index at the same time.
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We've seen an accelerated so off
in the bond market, which means
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as an increase in interest rates.
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When we look at the marketplace like
this and utilizing the bond market to
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help us, we can use that same idea as it
relates to looking at divergence between
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the bond market and the dollar index.
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So with that said, I'm not going to go
into great detail because obviously, you
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know what I mean by that, but by using
what was taught to you in the fifth
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teaching of this month's content, Okay
folks, we have the 10 year note to the
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left and a 30 year bond to the right.
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Okay.
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I want you to take a look
at the SMT divergence that
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we have in these two charts.
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Okay.
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And I'm going to take a look at
the currency markets and see how
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that assisted us in analysis.
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And again, this is a.
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Long-term to intermediate term concept.
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So it's aimed at giving you the
next three to six months, outlook
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on where currency should be going.
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Okay.
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So take a look at the 10 year note
here, making a higher high here.
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The same time 30 year made a
lower bond market took off lower.
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00:11:49,685 --> 00:11:52,745
So the second week of September,
we saw interest rates increasing.
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By the effects of the bond market
and ten-year note declining.
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Then we saw the last week of September
going into October, we saw this higher
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high form and a 10 year while we saw lower
high or SMT divergence in the 30 year.
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And then immediately we saw another
decline in both 10 year and 30 year,
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which is an increase in interest.
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00:12:21,150 --> 00:12:26,280
So right away, we know that there
should be a accelerated by or a rally
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in the second week of September and the
last week of September for the dollar.
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So let's take a look at that.
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Okay.
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We can see here the dollar index first
week of September here's that low we
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would expect because we saw an increase
in interest rates as a result of this.
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With the divergence between the
10 year and a 30 year bond market.
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And in the last week of September,
we saw the market makeup rally
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away from that point as well.
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So we have a rally here in a rally here,
and it begins that big movement higher.
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00:13:02,040 --> 00:13:07,199
Now, if we see that in the
dollar index, we should be
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00:13:07,199 --> 00:13:09,840
seeing rallies in dollar Swiss.
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00:13:15,270 --> 00:13:18,570
Here's September is a month year,
first week of September it rallies
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last week of September it rallies.
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00:13:20,850 --> 00:13:25,230
So we see that same effect appearing
us well in that dollar pair.
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Uh, let's take a look at the
dollar cat here September the first
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week of September it rallies in
a sale last week to this month of
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September it rallies again as well.
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00:13:41,790 --> 00:13:42,450
Take a look at these.
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Euro.
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This is going to be the opposite.
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00:13:44,625 --> 00:13:47,535
We're going to see a high form
the first week of September.
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Here we are.
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And then it sells off again
the last week of September.
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And there you go rolls over the pound.
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We should be seeing a,
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the pound.
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We should be seeing the
high form and a second.
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Yeah.
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September.
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00:14:12,265 --> 00:14:15,564
And so off the last week of
September, so high here and
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high here in accelerated so off.
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Okay.
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00:14:18,444 --> 00:14:20,845
And that was the reason why also I
told you we were going to be looking
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for these loads to be violated.
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00:14:22,615 --> 00:14:25,735
That was all behind the scenes,
why I was going that move here.
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Okay.
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And, uh, which also led to our
target or my target that I, I
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shared on Twitter and on YouTube.
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That's still my YouTube channel
videos calling for the one time.
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Um, level four, uh, British
pounds before the Brexit.
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So, uh, and we'll add one more.
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Let's take a look at the, uh, dollar
Ian Kane and we have a low that
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formed in the first week of September
in the last week of September.
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There's that pie and it takes off
and it's taken off extremely high.
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So again, it's a macro perspective.
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Using macro economic
principles, interest rates.
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Okay.
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And then utilizing that down
to a micro technical, so we
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can take all this information.
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Okay.
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And from the month of September, start
looking for reasons to be a buyer for all
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the dollar based currencies that start
with the dollar first and their name,
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we would be going along those pairs,
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New Zealand.
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We should be seeing a sell off around
the first, second week of the month.
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And we see it here the
last week of the month.
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I see it here and Aussie.
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00:15:44,385 --> 00:15:48,165
We should be seeing a sell off the
first week of the month here and
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the last week of the month here.
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And you see that as well.
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Okay.
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Again, it helps you, it builds an
idea about where the market should go
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because of the underlying fundamentals,
which I don't have to go through
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fundamental reports and do all that.
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I can rely on the interest rate
markets that I know, which is the bond
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market and the 10-year note, couple
that with the dollar index, it's like
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the pins in the lock turn for you.
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And no one can take it from you.
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00:16:14,140 --> 00:16:17,890
So let's go back to the 10
year and the 30 year note.
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Okay.
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Now we're going to take a look at the.
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Rally higher here on the 10 year, w
that was not seen here on the 30 year.
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00:16:28,005 --> 00:16:32,385
So we know that there's going to be an
accelerated rally on the dollar index.
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The first week of November, obviously
post us elections and let's go back
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to our dollar index chart and we
see November, we made that lower
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00:16:43,695 --> 00:16:48,315
load to that whole overnight fiasco
with the sell off on the dollar.
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00:16:49,620 --> 00:16:51,570
And the Dow Jones was all fluff.
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00:16:52,050 --> 00:16:56,670
It was all manipulation because we
see that lower low here in dollar,
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00:16:56,670 --> 00:17:00,330
but we did not see it in higher
high, seen in the 10 year and 30
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00:17:00,330 --> 00:17:03,780
year futures on the debt instruments.
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00:17:04,410 --> 00:17:07,589
So interest rates that were calling
the shots still, even though short term
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00:17:08,040 --> 00:17:12,750
heart attack on the charts in this down
move here on the dollar and Dow Jones
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00:17:12,750 --> 00:17:14,730
overnight the day of the election.
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00:17:15,720 --> 00:17:20,460
Everything was put back in gear
longer term with the acceleration
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00:17:20,460 --> 00:17:24,960
on the up, move on the dollar
rally, chasing higher yields.
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00:17:26,280 --> 00:17:34,740
And you can see that also in the
form of dollar Swiss dollar CAD
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00:17:37,880 --> 00:17:41,870
weakness, even though it looks like
its strength above and old high.
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00:17:42,290 --> 00:17:43,970
Remember that's that false movement.
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00:17:43,970 --> 00:17:44,200
We look.
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00:17:45,390 --> 00:17:48,510
The SMT is telling you, it looks
bullish with the underlying
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00:17:48,510 --> 00:17:49,440
tone of the marketplace.
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00:17:49,950 --> 00:17:53,550
There's no way that dollar is going
to allow all the dollars a rally.
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00:17:54,240 --> 00:17:55,710
And that's why we're seeing
to give up the ghost.
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00:17:57,150 --> 00:17:59,100
Same thing with the New Zealand dollar.
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00:17:59,460 --> 00:18:03,570
It looks bullish, starting off
running, just taking out an old
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00:18:03,570 --> 00:18:06,540
high, then running down, lower
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00:18:09,550 --> 00:18:10,360
the dollar CAD.
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00:18:10,990 --> 00:18:11,080
Okay.
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00:18:12,570 --> 00:18:12,990
Accelerate.
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00:18:13,980 --> 00:18:14,700
To the upside
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00:18:19,760 --> 00:18:20,960
hero as well.
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00:18:21,260 --> 00:18:24,890
The initial run-up clearing
out an area of buy stocks.
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00:18:24,890 --> 00:18:31,190
We talked about during this mentorship
here it one 13 big figure, and
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00:18:31,190 --> 00:18:32,930
it's been slamming lower since.
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00:18:33,560 --> 00:18:36,650
So I hope he take this information,
keep it close to your vest.
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00:18:36,650 --> 00:18:38,840
And in other words, don't share
it with the general public.
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00:18:39,380 --> 00:18:40,490
Most people will never learn.
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00:18:41,370 --> 00:18:47,460
Yeah, uh, this tactic, um, I don't have
a source to be able to say I learned it
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00:18:47,460 --> 00:18:50,850
from this one and that one, it was just
me understanding the bond market as a
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00:18:50,850 --> 00:18:54,240
futures trader and understanding that
the interest rate markets just basically
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00:18:54,240 --> 00:18:55,770
control everything around the world.
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00:18:55,860 --> 00:18:56,130
Okay.
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00:18:56,130 --> 00:18:59,430
It makes everything go, uh,
in, in the financial industry.
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00:19:00,615 --> 00:19:01,965
Without interest rates, nothing moves.
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00:19:02,415 --> 00:19:06,825
So if I'm going to understand the
industry market, it just stands to reason.
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00:19:06,825 --> 00:19:10,335
If as long as I know that my market and
the 10 year note I'll know everything
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00:19:10,335 --> 00:19:14,055
I need to know and take a look at
the bond, the German bond, and you'll
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00:19:14,055 --> 00:19:15,615
see that it's been going down also.
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00:19:16,035 --> 00:19:17,565
And that's the reason why I
said it was going to go down.
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00:19:18,135 --> 00:19:23,025
Everything has been shown here today
in this teaching again, please, please.
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00:19:23,355 --> 00:19:26,025
Don't make it common
knowledge until next time.
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00:19:26,085 --> 00:19:27,465
I wish you good luck and good trading.
27278
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