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Would you like to inspect the original subtitles? These are the user uploaded subtitles that are being translated: 1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:02,084 So, now we're going to cover step two. 2 00:00:02,084 --> 00:00:06,945 We're creating the three scenarios for each of our operating statistics, 3 00:00:06,945 --> 00:00:11,475 because eventually these will feed into the forecast above. 4 00:00:11,474 --> 00:00:14,339 We've created row for each of 5 00:00:14,339 --> 00:00:19,429 these three scenarios and the actual numbers are based on historical data, 6 00:00:19,429 --> 00:00:21,265 which we know as here, 7 00:00:21,265 --> 00:00:23,565 knowledge of the business autonomous, 8 00:00:23,565 --> 00:00:26,775 research, and assumptions about the business itself. 9 00:00:26,774 --> 00:00:28,754 You would be asking questions like, 10 00:00:28,754 --> 00:00:33,494 do you expect the revenue growth to stay the same or increase? 11 00:00:33,494 --> 00:00:35,114 If so, by how much? 12 00:00:35,115 --> 00:00:36,780 Let's walk through each of these, 13 00:00:36,780 --> 00:00:39,329 base case is the status quo. 14 00:00:39,329 --> 00:00:41,114 So, we can plug this in. 15 00:00:41,115 --> 00:00:46,079 So, the average growth was minus six percent. 16 00:00:46,079 --> 00:00:51,049 So, you can see that in year two the revenues were lower than year one, 17 00:00:51,049 --> 00:00:54,229 and then they were even further lower in year three. 18 00:00:54,229 --> 00:00:57,489 So, this company isn't doing well. 19 00:00:57,490 --> 00:01:03,405 So, the revenue growth was minus six percent off of year one, 20 00:01:03,405 --> 00:01:06,614 and minus four percent off of year two. 21 00:01:06,614 --> 00:01:12,719 So, the base case is to just keep the status quo and keep it an average of minus five. 22 00:01:12,719 --> 00:01:17,989 The strong case is that you actually reduce this decline and you say, 23 00:01:17,989 --> 00:01:20,484 okay it's going to be minus three. 24 00:01:20,484 --> 00:01:23,935 The weak case is where it becomes worse. 25 00:01:23,935 --> 00:01:26,310 So, just for simplicity reason, 26 00:01:26,310 --> 00:01:29,405 just kept this as minus seven to just show you. 27 00:01:29,405 --> 00:01:34,070 For gross margin, we can see that the gross margin, 28 00:01:34,069 --> 00:01:38,964 we can see has been 0.28 to 0.29. 29 00:01:38,965 --> 00:01:47,270 So, I'm going to keep this as the base case and then prove it by a percentage 0.02 here. 30 00:01:47,269 --> 00:01:51,274 Then, the weak case would be where it declined a little bit. 31 00:01:51,275 --> 00:01:55,670 Again, this will be based on more about the assumptions about 32 00:01:55,670 --> 00:02:00,079 the company and having a better business knowledge about the company itself. 33 00:02:00,079 --> 00:02:03,198 Then finally for operating margin, 34 00:02:03,198 --> 00:02:06,890 it was 0.07 through 0.05, 35 00:02:06,890 --> 00:02:08,060 it ranged in that. 36 00:02:08,060 --> 00:02:12,335 So, I'm going to keep it at an average of base cases 0.06, 37 00:02:12,335 --> 00:02:15,349 strongest 0.08 and 0.09, 38 00:02:15,349 --> 00:02:19,099 and then weak cases 0.07 and we'll just keep it there. 39 00:02:19,099 --> 00:02:25,229 So, we have our scenarios mapped out now and we get to step three. 40 00:02:25,229 --> 00:02:29,929 I'm just going to pause here and we can watch the next step in the next video. 3310

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