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Forecasting model requires careful thinking
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about which approach you want to take to create the models.
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One approach to modeling is top-down.
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It takes a macro approach to forecasting.
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Here, you start with the best estimate of the larger size of
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the market narrowing down to identify
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the portion of the market that the company is serving,
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and then estimate what it will take to capture that portion of the market.
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Top-down is a macro approach,
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but it is less credible and typically adopted when there's limited historical data.
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We'll next look at an example that shows why this is less credible.
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Let's go to the weaker example.
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We start with the online grocery delivery market,
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which is about $20 billion,
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and then we start getting into the specifics,
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such as which market segments the company wants to focus on.
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Say the executive team at WeCart wants to retain the focus on the urban market,
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which is about $17 million.
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Now, the assumption is that WeCart will aim to capture five percent of this market,
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and with that we arrive at $850,000.
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Finally, based on our product pricing,
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say $4.95 per delivery,
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we can now arrive at our sale quantity estimates of about a 170,000 customer orders.
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As you can see, this is a less credible way to forecast because
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you're talking in guesses and estimates based on macro figures.
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It's harder to convince potential investors you
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can realistically achieve this forecasted revenue.
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