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An observable universe is a big place
that's been around for more than 13 billion years.
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Up to two trillion galaxies made up of
something like 20,000 billion billion stars
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surround our home galaxy.
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In the Milky Way alone,
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scientists assume there are some
40 billion earth-like planets
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in the habitable zone of their stars.
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When we look at these numbers, it's hard to imagine
that there is nobody else out there.
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It would change our perception of ourselves forever
if we found others.
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Just knowing that this vast place is not dead
would shift our perspective outward,
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and could help us get over
our irrelevant quarrels.
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But before looking for our
new best friends, or worst enemies,
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we have a problem to solve:
What are we actually looking for?
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[Kurzgesagt intro]
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In a universe that big and old,
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we have to assume that civilizations
start millions of years apart from eachother,
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and develop in different directions and speeds.
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So not only are we looking over distances of
dozens to hundreds of thousands of light years,
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we're looking for a civilization
ranging from cavemen to super advanced.
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So, we need a conceptual framework
to enable us to think better thoughts
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that make us able to search better.
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Are there universal rules that
intelligent species follow?
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Currently our civilization sample size is only one,
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so we may make incorrect assumptions
based solely on ourselves.
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Still, better than nothing.
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We know that humans started out with nothing
but minds and hands that could build tools.
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We know that humans are curious, competitive,
greedy for resources, and expansionist.
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The more of these qualities our ancestors had,
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the more successful they were
in the civilization building game.
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Being one with nature is nice,
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but it's not the path
to irrigation systems, or gunpowder, or cities.
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So it's reasonable to assume that aliens able to
take over their home planet also have these qualities.
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And, if aliens have to follow
the same laws of physics,
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then there is a measurable metric for progress:
Energy use.
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Human progress can be measured very precisely
by how much energy we extracted from our environment,
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and how we made it
usable to do things.
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We started with muscles,
until we learned to control fire.
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Then we made machines that
used kinetic energy from water and wind.
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As our machines got better
and our knowledge of materials expanded,
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we began to harness the concentrated energy
from dead plants we dug up from the ground.
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As our energy consumption grew exponentially,
so did the abilities of our civilization.
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Between 1800 and 2015,
population size had increased sevenfold,
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while humanity was consuming
25 times more energy.
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It's likely that this process
will continue into the far future.
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Based on these facts, scientist Nikolai Kardashev
developed a method of categorizing civilizations,
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from cave dwellers to gods ruling over galaxies:
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The Kardashev Scale;
a method of ranking civilizations by their energy use.
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The scale has been refined and
expanded on over the decades,
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but in general it puts civilizations
into four different categories.
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A Type 1 civilization is able to use the
available energy of their home planet.
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A Type 2 civilization is able to use the
available energy of their star and planetary system.
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A Type 3 civilization is able to use the
available energy of their galaxy.
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A Type 4 civilization is able to use the
available energy of multiple galaxies.
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These levels differ by orders of magnitude.
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It's like comparing an ant colony
to a human metropolitan area.
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To, ants we are so complex and powerful,
we might as well be gods.
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So to make the scale more useful,
we need subcategories.
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On the lower end of the spectrum,
there are Type 0 to Type 1 civilizations:
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Anything from hunter-gatherers, to something
we could achieve in the next few hundred years.
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These might actually be
abundant in the Milky Way.
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But a civilization that is not
actively transmitting radio signals into space
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might be as close as our nearest stellar neighbor,
the Alpha Centauri system,
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and we would have no way of
realizing they exist.
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But even if they transmitted radio signals
like we do, it might not be very helpful.
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On an interstellar scale,
humanity is practically invisible.
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Our signals may extend over
an impressive 200 light years,
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but this is only a tiny fraction
of the Milky Way.
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And even if someone were listening,
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after a few light years
our signals decay into noise,
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impossible to identify as
the source of an intelligent species.
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Today, humanity ranks at about level 0.75.
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We have altered our planet:
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we've created huge structures,
mined and stripped mountains,
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removed rainforests, and drained swamps.
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We've created rivers and lakes,
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and changed the composition and temperature
of the atmosphere.
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If progress continues,
and we don't make Earth uninhabitable,
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we will become a full Type 1 civilization
in the next few hundred years.
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Any civilization that becomes a Type 1
is bound to look outside,
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because it's likely that it's still curious,
competitive, greedy and expansionist.
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The next reasonable step towards transitioning to Type 2
is trying to alter and mine other planets and bodies.
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This might start with outposts in space,
transition to infrastructure and industries near the home planet,
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move on to colonies,
and end with terraforming other planets,
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by changing their atmosphere,
their rotation, or position.
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As a civilization expands and
uses more and more stuff and space,
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its energy consumption scales with them,
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so at some point, they may embark on the largest project
a lower Type 2 civilization can take on:
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harnessing the energy of their star
by building a Dyson Swarm.
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Once this megastructure is finished,
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energy has become practically unlimited
for molding the home system however they see fit.
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If they are still curious, competitive,
greedy and expansionist,
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and now have complete control
over their home system,
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stellar infrastructure in place,
and the energy output of a star,
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the next frontier moves to
other stars light years away.
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For a Type 2 civilization,
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the distance to other stars might feel like
the distance between Earth and Pluto does to us today:
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Technically within reach,
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but only with immense investments
in terms of time, ingenuity, and resources.
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This begins their transition
towards Type 3.
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This step is so far beyond us
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that it becomes hard to imagine
what exactly these challenges will look like,
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and how they'll be solved.
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Will they be able to find a solution
to the vast distances
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and travel times of
hundreds or thousands of years?
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Will they be able to communicate and keep a shared
culture and biology between colonies light years apart?
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Or will they split into
separate Type 2 civilizations?
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Maybe even different species?
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Are there deadly challenges between the stars?
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So the closer a species gets to Type 3,
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the harder it becomes to fathom
what it might actually look like.
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They might discover new physics,
may understand and control dark matter and energy,
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or be able to travel faster than light.
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We might be unable to grasp their
motives, technology, and actions.
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Humans are the ants, trying to
understand the galactic metropolitan area.
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A high Type 2 civilization might already consider
humanity too primitive to even talk to.
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A Type 3 civilization might feel about
as like we feel about the bacteria living on the anthill.
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Maybe they wouldn't even consider us conscious,
or our survival relevant.
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We could only pray that they're nice gods.
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But the scale doesn't necessarily end here.
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Some scientists suggest there might be
Type 4 and Type 5 civilizations,
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whose influence stretches over
galaxy clusters or superclusters,
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structures comprising thousands of galaxies
and trillions of stars.
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Ultimately, there might be
a Type Omega civilization,
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able to manipulate the entire universe,
and possibly others.
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Type omega civilizations might be
the actual creators of our universe,
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for reasons beyond our comprehension.
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Maybe they were just bored.
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As flawed as this classification may be,
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this thought experiment is
already telling us interesting things.
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If our ideas about the nature of species that
form interstellar civilizations is sort of correct,
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then we can be pretty sure that there are
no civilizations of Type 3 and beyond near the Milky Way.
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Their influence would in all likelihood
be so all-encompassing,
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and their technology so far above our own,
that we couldn't miss them.
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The galaxy should flash with their activity
in thousands of star systems.
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We should be able to see or detect their artifacts or movements
between different parts of their empire.
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Even if a Type 3 civilization did exist in the past,
and died a mysterious death,
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we should be able to detect
some of the remnants of their empire.
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But when scientists looked,
they didn't find remnants of harvested stars,
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decaying megastructures
or scars of great interstellar wars.
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So they're very likely not out there
and never were.
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In a sense, this is very sad,
but also very reassuring.
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It leaves the galaxy to us and
others similar to us.
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So the most promising civilizations to look for may be
somewhere in the spectrum from Type 1.5 to Type 2.5.
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They wouldn't be too advanced to
understand them and their motives.
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They may have finished their first megastructures,
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and they might be in the process of
moving staff between stars,
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transmitting enormous amounts of information
into space,
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by accident, or on purpose.
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They would probably also look to the stars
and look for others.
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Then again, maybe we've got it all wrong.
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Maybe progress to Type 2
does not mean expanding outwards,
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and humanity is still too immature
to imagine otherwise.
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For now, all we really know is that
we haven't seen anybody yet.
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But, we've only just started looking.
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Until we finally find friendly super aliens
and can ask them to explain the rules of the universe to us,
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most of us have to make do
with learning stuff ourselves.
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00:10:50,640 --> 00:10:53,240
Whether you're going back to school
leaving home for the first time,
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or if you're just entering
a new phase in your life,
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our shop is stocked and ready
for all your back-to-school needs.
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Notebooks and notepads
to organize your work,
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stickers and mugs
to make things look nice,
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lots and lots of posters to turn your dorm or room
into an inspiring oasis of knowledge.
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00:11:10,080 --> 00:11:14,400
We have new shirts and for the first time,
a Kurzgesagt Earth sweater.
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All of these products are designed and produced with love
by the Kurzgesagt merch birbs.
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Our merch is the easiest way to support what we do
and keep our videos free for everyone.
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Thank you for watching.
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*duck noise*
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