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These are the user uploaded subtitles that are being translated: 1 00:01:14,774 --> 00:01:15,798 Keep it coming. 2 00:01:26,719 --> 00:01:28,584 Set me down the computer. 3 00:01:38,798 --> 00:01:40,231 My name is Richard Lieberman. 4 00:01:40,900 --> 00:01:43,368 I am the scientist in charge of, 5 00:01:43,503 --> 00:01:46,700 I was the scientist in charge of Yellowstone Volcano Observatory. 6 00:01:52,946 --> 00:01:54,311 I' m not sure what day it is. 7 00:01:54,814 --> 00:01:58,079 And l' m not precisely sure the eruption is over. 8 00:01:59,352 --> 00:02:02,378 I' m trapped here in some kind of military installation 9 00:02:02,522 --> 00:02:05,616 in some godforsaken part of Colorado. 10 00:02:07,360 --> 00:02:12,059 We've got no food, we've got no power and the ash fall 11 00:02:12,198 --> 00:02:14,666 has contaminated the water supply. 12 00:02:15,602 --> 00:02:18,002 The air is so thick with it that we can barely breathe. 13 00:02:21,641 --> 00:02:25,509 These men that l' m with, they think if we stay put 14 00:02:25,645 --> 00:02:27,476 that we are going to be rescued, 15 00:02:28,047 --> 00:02:33,679 but I honest to god believe that if we just watch and wait - 16 00:02:37,624 --> 00:02:39,114 we are as good as dead. 17 00:03:24,070 --> 00:03:26,265 Before it all happened, many visitors to 18 00:03:26,406 --> 00:03:30,069 Yellowstone were blissfully unaware that it was volcanic. 19 00:03:31,578 --> 00:03:34,069 After all where was the cone shaped volcano, 20 00:03:34,214 --> 00:03:36,444 Iike Mt St Helens or Vesuvius? 21 00:03:38,484 --> 00:03:42,352 They didn't realise that they were actually standing on top of it. 22 00:03:42,755 --> 00:03:46,953 That beneath their feet was one of the largest volcanoes in the world. 23 00:03:47,627 --> 00:03:51,028 The truth is, we were only just beginning to understand 24 00:03:51,164 --> 00:03:53,394 the workings of the Park ourselves. 25 00:03:53,733 --> 00:03:57,829 And VlRGlL, the Virtual Geophysical lmaging Laboratory, 26 00:03:57,971 --> 00:04:00,337 well, that was going to help us. 27 00:04:01,574 --> 00:04:03,565 Maggie Chin, KCVZ News Salt Lake City. 28 00:04:03,710 --> 00:04:04,176 Hello. 29 00:04:04,310 --> 00:04:06,801 Hello. Your model is very impressive, sir. 30 00:04:06,946 --> 00:04:08,311 Ah thank you Miss Chin. 31 00:04:08,448 --> 00:04:10,814 My question is, will it help? 32 00:04:10,950 --> 00:04:12,008 Help what, Miss Chin? 33 00:04:12,151 --> 00:04:14,381 Well in the last decade we have seen more 34 00:04:14,520 --> 00:04:16,886 and more ground uplift at Yellowstone. 35 00:04:17,023 --> 00:04:20,459 Twelve feet, I believe, is the conservative estimate. 36 00:04:20,593 --> 00:04:22,652 Well that estimate is not conservative. 37 00:04:22,795 --> 00:04:25,093 Nonetheless, many of your colleagues 38 00:04:25,231 --> 00:04:27,495 in the scientific community believe that it's one 39 00:04:27,634 --> 00:04:30,159 of many signs that an eruption is coming. 40 00:04:30,970 --> 00:04:33,336 I am going to let Rick Lieberman, 41 00:04:33,539 --> 00:04:37,600 scientist in charge of Yellowstone Volcano Observatory, 42 00:04:37,977 --> 00:04:39,842 deal with that one. Rick. 43 00:04:40,046 --> 00:04:40,603 Thank you. 44 00:04:40,747 --> 00:04:43,238 This is a sequence of Yellowstone's geological 45 00:04:43,383 --> 00:04:46,546 behaviour over the past 1 00 years. 46 00:04:48,254 --> 00:04:49,414 OK there we go. 47 00:04:49,922 --> 00:04:52,720 You see, what we have beneath our feet 48 00:04:52,859 --> 00:04:54,986 here at Yellowstone is a type of volcano, 49 00:04:55,128 --> 00:04:59,963 a type of hidden volcano, referred to as a restless caldera. 50 00:05:00,099 --> 00:05:03,865 Caldera because you' ll notice it resembles the shape 51 00:05:04,003 --> 00:05:07,495 of a cauldron and restless because 52 00:05:07,640 --> 00:05:08,664 it spends much of its life doing like 53 00:05:08,808 --> 00:05:10,366 what you see it's doing right here. 54 00:05:10,510 --> 00:05:13,343 It's huffing and puffing as the magma and the 55 00:05:13,479 --> 00:05:16,346 hydrothermal systems beneath the ground rise and fall. 56 00:05:16,482 --> 00:05:20,782 For reasons that we actually don't fully yet understand. 57 00:05:20,920 --> 00:05:22,751 So this uplift that you have mentioned, 58 00:05:22,889 --> 00:05:26,916 Maggie, is very simply just a part of everyday life here at Yellowstone. 59 00:05:27,160 --> 00:05:30,687 So we are definitely not looking at an imminent Super-eruption? 60 00:05:30,897 --> 00:05:34,025 Let me say this, the chances of a so-called 61 00:05:34,167 --> 00:05:40,731 Super-eruption are on the order of something like one in 600,000. 62 00:05:40,873 --> 00:05:43,967 In fact it's more than twice as likely that an airplane 63 00:05:44,110 --> 00:05:46,601 will crash into your back yard. So. 64 00:05:46,979 --> 00:05:49,846 Haven't we just seen extra ground uplift at Norris? 65 00:05:50,016 --> 00:05:51,643 Yes we have as a matter of fact, 66 00:05:51,784 --> 00:05:55,311 but that may well be hydrothermal, you know? 67 00:05:55,455 --> 00:05:57,855 A build up of water. 68 00:05:58,825 --> 00:05:59,849 I' ll tell you what Miss Chin, 69 00:05:59,992 --> 00:06:01,789 you give me ten bucks right now and 70 00:06:01,928 --> 00:06:05,762 I will offer you odds of 600,000 to one. 71 00:06:05,898 --> 00:06:09,356 So if this thing does go up you'd make a killing. 72 00:06:10,536 --> 00:06:11,195 OK. 73 00:06:17,910 --> 00:06:21,676 Listen, I need the co-ordinates of the Taiwan quake. 74 00:06:21,814 --> 00:06:28,549 Yes, Kao-Hsiung region, hey. 57 yup, 33. Ok. 75 00:06:32,158 --> 00:06:34,718 This thing takes up far too much space you know? 76 00:06:51,511 --> 00:06:53,445 Hey, thanks Matt. 77 00:06:57,717 --> 00:06:59,241 Guess what this is? 78 00:07:00,019 --> 00:07:00,815 You tell me. 79 00:07:01,754 --> 00:07:02,345 Pumice. 80 00:07:02,655 --> 00:07:06,989 It comes from deep inside a volcano that's so hot the rocks all melt. 81 00:07:07,260 --> 00:07:13,756 But when the volcano blows up, pshew it gets blown high into the sky. 82 00:07:16,969 --> 00:07:21,406 And guess what? It floats. 83 00:07:21,541 --> 00:07:22,235 Oh it does. 84 00:07:22,375 --> 00:07:22,807 In my coffee 85 00:07:22,942 --> 00:07:26,105 How neat is that? A rock that floats. 86 00:07:30,616 --> 00:07:32,584 Hey OK pal, that's enough. 87 00:07:37,824 --> 00:07:41,260 Hey I found out about flights. They said it's fine at seven months. 88 00:07:41,394 --> 00:07:42,361 Oh come on Fi. 89 00:07:42,495 --> 00:07:44,463 Honey we just flew to Yellowstone and back. 90 00:07:44,597 --> 00:07:46,656 Yes I know but A you were with me 91 00:07:46,799 --> 00:07:49,495 and B you weren't in the air for like 1 1 hours. 92 00:07:49,635 --> 00:07:52,433 Then I don't get to see my mum this side of Christmas do l? 93 00:08:10,423 --> 00:08:11,355 What is it? 94 00:08:18,998 --> 00:08:21,228 Shit. We got a quake. 95 00:08:22,034 --> 00:08:22,898 What? 96 00:08:23,035 --> 00:08:24,297 I' ll call you, l' ll see you guys soon. 97 00:08:26,472 --> 00:08:27,530 This is Matt. 98 00:08:27,673 --> 00:08:28,537 What's the damage? 99 00:08:28,674 --> 00:08:32,166 Oh some broken glass, for sure. Nothing major. 100 00:08:32,378 --> 00:08:33,310 OK what have we got? 101 00:08:33,446 --> 00:08:38,474 Be in touch. 6.9 10km beneath the South Arm Fork. 102 00:08:38,618 --> 00:08:41,212 OK l' m running a simulation. 6.9 at what? 103 00:08:41,354 --> 00:08:43,413 10km beneath the South Arm Fork 104 00:08:43,556 --> 00:08:46,923 That's confirmed 6.9, standing by for more data. 105 00:08:52,765 --> 00:08:55,791 Get me the web-cam images of the Fishing Bridge area. 106 00:08:56,469 --> 00:08:59,495 Over say the last five minutes. 107 00:09:02,608 --> 00:09:03,973 Oh go back. 108 00:09:16,522 --> 00:09:18,786 Tell Matt he needs to get to the other end of the lake. 109 00:09:18,925 --> 00:09:21,052 Where are you going to be? .... in my office. 110 00:09:41,981 --> 00:09:46,816 Fortunately due to the remoteness of the area, damage was limited. 111 00:09:47,253 --> 00:09:50,222 But tragically nine bodies have been recovered so far. 112 00:09:50,856 --> 00:09:51,914 Three of them children. 113 00:09:53,626 --> 00:09:57,289 All from the Fishing Bridge area of the Park. As well, 114 00:09:57,430 --> 00:10:01,196 43 people have been taken to hospital with various injuries, 115 00:10:01,334 --> 00:10:02,767 some of them life threatening. 116 00:10:03,069 --> 00:10:04,559 I am going to hand you over to Mr Rick Lieberman 117 00:10:04,704 --> 00:10:07,673 of the USGS then we will take some questions. Rick. 118 00:10:08,374 --> 00:10:11,070 The earthquake, a 6.9 on the Richter Scale, 119 00:10:11,210 --> 00:10:13,508 occurred at 12.13 local time, 120 00:10:13,646 --> 00:10:16,877 centred at a depth of 10km beneath Mount Sheridan 121 00:10:17,016 --> 00:10:18,779 at the southern end of Lake Yellowstone. 122 00:10:18,918 --> 00:10:21,682 The earthquake triggered a landslide off the 123 00:10:21,821 --> 00:10:23,755 South Arm Fork which in turn caused a tsunami 124 00:10:23,889 --> 00:10:27,655 wave to hit the northern shore here a few minutes later. 125 00:10:27,793 --> 00:10:30,261 All indicators suggest that this quake was not 126 00:10:30,396 --> 00:10:35,129 volcanic, but was tectonic in its nature, 127 00:10:35,267 --> 00:10:36,996 caused by a grinding together of the 128 00:10:37,136 --> 00:10:39,798 earth's plates along a known fault line. 129 00:10:39,939 --> 00:10:42,533 The pattern of after shocks of decreasing magnitude 130 00:10:42,675 --> 00:10:45,508 is consistent with this type of seismic activity. 131 00:10:45,745 --> 00:10:46,302 Any questions? 132 00:10:46,445 --> 00:10:48,310 Is it true Old Faithful has stopped? 133 00:10:48,447 --> 00:10:53,180 Yes that is true, however a ground movement can both block 134 00:10:53,319 --> 00:10:55,719 and unblock hydrothermal features. 135 00:10:55,921 --> 00:10:58,321 Has there been any effect on the uplift at Norris? 136 00:10:58,457 --> 00:11:01,221 No, not that we have seen at all, no. 137 00:11:01,360 --> 00:11:03,419 Are you still sure that there is not going to be an eruption, 138 00:11:03,562 --> 00:11:04,392 Mr Lieberman? 139 00:11:04,530 --> 00:11:06,191 As I have said Miss Chin, 140 00:11:06,332 --> 00:11:09,392 this earthquake was not caused by volcanic activity. 141 00:11:09,535 --> 00:11:11,628 As far as we know. 142 00:11:12,304 --> 00:11:16,035 We are increasing our alert status to Yellow, 143 00:11:16,175 --> 00:11:19,338 which as you know, does mean 'watch'. 144 00:11:19,478 --> 00:11:21,412 Does that mean you are not ruling out an eruption? 145 00:11:21,547 --> 00:11:25,039 Look, Miss Chin, Yellowstone has sometimes as many 146 00:11:25,184 --> 00:11:29,951 as 3000 earthquakes every year, none of them followed by eruptions. 147 00:11:30,089 --> 00:11:34,583 Everything points to this being a one-off tragic accident. 148 00:11:36,095 --> 00:11:36,789 The truth? 149 00:11:38,364 --> 00:11:42,425 We had the Hebgen Lake earthquake in 1 959... 150 00:11:42,568 --> 00:11:46,129 ...couple of miles from Yellowstone. 7.5 on the Richter Scale. 151 00:11:46,405 --> 00:11:48,532 Massive landslide, 29 dead. 152 00:11:49,475 --> 00:11:51,875 And it didn't indicate a damn thing. 153 00:11:52,378 --> 00:11:56,678 Again in 1975. 96, it didn't either.. 154 00:11:57,783 --> 00:12:01,241 ...I mean hell, I'm a politician not a scientist, 155 00:12:01,387 --> 00:12:03,685 the USGS guys tell me it's another Hebgen Lake, 156 00:12:03,823 --> 00:12:04,881 I have got to take their word for it. 157 00:12:07,059 --> 00:12:11,996 You know? You go on the available facts. 158 00:12:13,899 --> 00:12:18,734 Problem was that with a place the size of Yellowstone, 159 00:12:18,871 --> 00:12:24,503 well we didn't have all the available facts. 160 00:12:26,912 --> 00:12:28,243 Richard Lieberman, YVO. 161 00:12:28,380 --> 00:12:34,114 Hey, it's me. You had better take a look at KCVC News. 162 00:12:34,253 --> 00:12:36,687 I will do that, thank you, l' ll call you back. 163 00:12:36,822 --> 00:12:37,584 Bye. 164 00:12:38,858 --> 00:12:40,519 Well Maggie I think that we ought to make 165 00:12:40,659 --> 00:12:41,591 a clear distinction between a 166 00:12:41,727 --> 00:12:44,355 regular volcanic eruption and a Super-eruption. 167 00:12:44,497 --> 00:12:48,695 Mount St Helens was the most violent eruption in American history. 168 00:12:48,834 --> 00:12:50,358 Killed 57 people and it erupted 169 00:12:50,503 --> 00:12:54,269 about 1 cubic kilometer of volcanic ash and rock. 170 00:12:54,406 --> 00:12:55,771 Watching the great man huh? 171 00:12:55,908 --> 00:12:56,499 Yes. 172 00:12:56,642 --> 00:13:00,874 Now let's say this cube here represented the amount 173 00:13:01,013 --> 00:13:04,244 of volcanic material ejected by Mount St Helens. 174 00:13:04,383 --> 00:13:07,181 Now in volcanic terms it's a tiddler. Krakatoa... 175 00:13:07,319 --> 00:13:08,877 Tiddler. 176 00:13:09,355 --> 00:13:11,687 The lndonesian volcano that erupted 177 00:13:11,824 --> 00:13:14,816 in 1883 was 17 times larger than Mount St Helens, 178 00:13:14,960 --> 00:13:19,556 killed 36,000 people and it's represented by this cube here. 179 00:13:19,698 --> 00:13:22,064 Finally we have this. 180 00:13:23,536 --> 00:13:27,802 This is 2,500 times the size of Mount St. 181 00:13:27,940 --> 00:13:30,374 Helens, this is a Super-volcano, 182 00:13:30,509 --> 00:13:34,411 this is currently sitting underneath the ground at Yellowstone Park 183 00:13:35,181 --> 00:13:39,083 And when was the last time one of these Super-eruptions happened? 184 00:13:39,218 --> 00:13:42,244 About 74,000 years ago in a place called 185 00:13:42,388 --> 00:13:45,016 Toba on the other side of the world, Sumatra. 186 00:13:45,157 --> 00:13:48,183 Now the volcanic eruption there was so vast it created a volcanic winter, 187 00:13:48,327 --> 00:13:51,194 plunged the world into darkness and all but wiped out the human race. 188 00:13:51,330 --> 00:13:52,797 It missed one though didn't it? 189 00:13:52,932 --> 00:13:56,834 And Yellowstone has produced eruptions on this sort of scale before? 190 00:13:56,969 --> 00:14:00,097 Oh yes, three times in the last 2million years. 191 00:14:00,239 --> 00:14:01,638 And do you think that the activity that 192 00:14:01,774 --> 00:14:03,639 we are seeing there right now may indicate 193 00:14:03,776 --> 00:14:05,505 that it's about to happen for a fourth time? 194 00:14:05,644 --> 00:14:08,010 Yes I do believe that these events are cyclical. 195 00:14:08,147 --> 00:14:11,241 Three caldera-forming eruptions in the last 2.1 million years means 196 00:14:11,383 --> 00:14:14,511 on average one eruption every 600,000 years. 197 00:14:14,653 --> 00:14:17,679 And we haven't had an eruption like that at 198 00:14:17,823 --> 00:14:21,759 Yellowstone for 640,000 years. 199 00:14:21,894 --> 00:14:23,691 In other words, we are overdue? 200 00:14:23,829 --> 00:14:24,591 No. 201 00:14:24,730 --> 00:14:26,197 Yes I believe we are overdue. 202 00:14:26,332 --> 00:14:26,798 Oh. 203 00:14:26,932 --> 00:14:27,557 Jeez wept. 204 00:14:27,700 --> 00:14:31,067 The warning signs are there if you care to read them. 205 00:14:31,203 --> 00:14:32,500 Thank you Dr Wylie. 206 00:14:32,638 --> 00:14:33,332 You' re welcome 207 00:14:33,472 --> 00:14:34,769 Thank you Dr Wylie. 208 00:14:34,907 --> 00:14:35,635 My god. 209 00:14:35,774 --> 00:14:40,268 I know he's your brother in law, Rick, but the guy' s a total numpty. 210 00:14:40,412 --> 00:14:41,344 It's not a good thing, right? 211 00:14:41,480 --> 00:14:43,038 No that's not good, no. 212 00:14:45,317 --> 00:14:47,080 We were trying to monitor something 213 00:14:47,219 --> 00:14:50,950 so vast that it was almost incomprehensible. 214 00:14:51,457 --> 00:14:53,755 The Park itself is over 2million acres 215 00:14:53,893 --> 00:14:57,420 and somewhere within that was the volcano. 216 00:14:57,563 --> 00:15:01,090 But for the longest time we couldn't figure out where. 217 00:15:02,234 --> 00:15:06,637 Then in the '80s NASA took some aerial photographs of the Park. 218 00:15:06,772 --> 00:15:10,765 And these photographs revealed the volcanic crater for the first time. 219 00:15:11,510 --> 00:15:14,570 It turns out that we'd been looking on the wrong scale. 220 00:15:14,713 --> 00:15:18,342 This crater measured 85km by 45. 221 00:15:18,550 --> 00:15:21,314 Big enough to hold the largest city in the world, 222 00:15:21,453 --> 00:15:25,480 Tokyo, population 18million. 223 00:15:44,977 --> 00:15:47,571 Yes I did see Mr Wylie on the television. 224 00:15:51,650 --> 00:15:56,212 No, no, approximately every 600,000 years sir. 225 00:15:56,355 --> 00:15:59,620 I mean with a conservative margin of error we could be out by 100. 226 00:15:59,758 --> 00:16:02,226 And I am telling you sir, we are not hiding anything, alright? 227 00:16:02,361 --> 00:16:04,886 Everything we know is out on our web-site. 228 00:16:08,133 --> 00:16:09,532 How' s it looking Matt? 229 00:16:09,969 --> 00:16:11,459 Oh it's looking good, normal. 230 00:16:12,871 --> 00:16:15,066 Like to make a couple more passes though. 231 00:16:16,675 --> 00:16:20,668 No sir, l' m afraid that drilling down to try 232 00:16:20,813 --> 00:16:23,247 to siphon off the magma wouldn't work. 233 00:16:23,582 --> 00:16:28,610 No. In fact it could probably cause the whole thing to go off. 234 00:16:33,792 --> 00:16:35,419 I don't like that, can we get down there? 235 00:16:35,661 --> 00:16:38,027 It's all true, this thing's ready to blow 236 00:16:38,163 --> 00:16:41,428 in a matter of days, if not hours. And everybody, 237 00:16:41,567 --> 00:16:44,092 absolutely everybody' s going to die. 238 00:16:44,236 --> 00:16:48,866 Horribly. Ha, oh you' re welcome, your holiness. Ha. 239 00:16:51,377 --> 00:16:51,809 Nice. 240 00:16:53,545 --> 00:16:54,944 CO2 levels are good up here 241 00:16:55,080 --> 00:16:57,605 but ground level CO2 that's killing those trees. 242 00:17:15,367 --> 00:17:16,891 Is there or is there not a magma chamber 243 00:17:17,036 --> 00:17:18,594 underneath Yellowstone National Park? 244 00:17:18,737 --> 00:17:19,328 Yes Kenneth. 245 00:17:19,471 --> 00:17:21,996 Yes and is this magma chamber of sufficient size 246 00:17:22,141 --> 00:17:24,234 that if there was an eruption there it 247 00:17:24,376 --> 00:17:27,743 could potentially be rated as a Super-eruption? 248 00:17:27,880 --> 00:17:28,744 Yes. Exactly. Could. 249 00:17:28,881 --> 00:17:31,372 Well l' m not saying that there will, l' m saying that there's a chance. 250 00:17:31,517 --> 00:17:34,680 No what you said on television was 'overdue'. 251 00:17:34,820 --> 00:17:37,755 You know that's what you said. 'Overdue' you said. 252 00:17:38,524 --> 00:17:39,548 Caught up in the moment I expect. 253 00:17:39,691 --> 00:17:41,716 Well you and a few million other people I guess. 254 00:17:41,860 --> 00:17:42,918 Hey let's not do this now. 255 00:17:43,062 --> 00:17:44,791 Look sis, I have a legitimate scientific viewpoint. 256 00:17:44,930 --> 00:17:45,589 He thinks he's... 257 00:17:45,731 --> 00:17:47,892 Look have you ever actually been to Yellowstone? 258 00:17:48,100 --> 00:17:48,896 It's not necessary. 259 00:17:49,034 --> 00:17:52,128 Your excellent web-site provides all the data, I just interpret it. 260 00:17:52,271 --> 00:17:54,205 Oh no you misinterpret, that's what you do. 261 00:17:54,339 --> 00:17:56,432 Can we not do this now? Please. 262 00:17:56,575 --> 00:17:59,066 Look all l' m saying is you do not go on television 263 00:17:59,211 --> 00:18:02,339 and create a mass panic over one potential scenario, 264 00:18:02,481 --> 00:18:03,573 just in order to sell a book. 265 00:18:03,715 --> 00:18:04,807 Oh come on. 266 00:18:05,017 --> 00:18:06,985 You don't go on television and tell everybody that everything's 267 00:18:07,119 --> 00:18:10,247 going to be just fine when you know damn well it might not be. 268 00:18:10,389 --> 00:18:10,753 Kenneth. 269 00:18:10,889 --> 00:18:11,412 No but just. 270 00:18:11,557 --> 00:18:14,617 No, both of you, I said not now. 271 00:18:15,828 --> 00:18:19,924 God l' m sick of this. Do you have nothing else? 272 00:18:21,266 --> 00:18:23,598 You haven't seen your nephew in over a year. 273 00:18:27,973 --> 00:18:31,966 I' m sorry. Hello Will. How' s school? 274 00:18:33,512 --> 00:18:34,137 Seamless. 275 00:18:35,581 --> 00:18:36,013 Sorry. 276 00:18:37,316 --> 00:18:40,012 When I first met Rick he was a geology student, 277 00:18:40,152 --> 00:18:43,781 part of a team studying Yellowstone Lake. 278 00:18:44,356 --> 00:18:52,263 They discovered this enormous 2000 foot log bulge beneath the Lake. 279 00:18:54,833 --> 00:18:57,233 Everyone got very excited about it, 280 00:18:57,503 --> 00:18:59,698 press got hold of the story and convinced a lot 281 00:18:59,838 --> 00:19:02,363 of people that Yellowstone was going to blow. 282 00:19:02,908 --> 00:19:10,508 It created this huge panic and then nothing happened. 283 00:19:11,917 --> 00:19:14,613 It made Rick very cautious about what he said in public. 284 00:19:16,555 --> 00:19:20,855 Then when he got the job as scientist in charge, 285 00:19:20,993 --> 00:19:24,554 people paid even more attention to what he said. 286 00:19:24,796 --> 00:19:26,354 So, it's a boy right? 287 00:19:26,598 --> 00:19:28,122 Mmm, a little boy dragon. 288 00:19:28,267 --> 00:19:29,131 Huh. 289 00:19:29,468 --> 00:19:31,060 And with a new feature. 290 00:19:33,839 --> 00:19:34,669 Show me. 291 00:19:35,574 --> 00:19:37,838 Some sort of anomaly above the magma chamber, 292 00:19:37,976 --> 00:19:39,671 just below Firehole Creek Basin. 293 00:19:39,811 --> 00:19:40,743 Oh yes. 294 00:19:41,146 --> 00:19:43,080 Could be water or gas. 295 00:19:43,282 --> 00:19:44,943 Or an intrusion of magma through a 296 00:19:45,083 --> 00:19:47,142 fault line opened up by the quake, right? 297 00:19:48,387 --> 00:19:50,855 Impossible to tell until we get a clear image. 298 00:19:50,989 --> 00:19:51,921 ...Oh thanks. 299 00:19:52,057 --> 00:19:54,719 We are still processing all the data from the Kao-Hsiung quake. 300 00:19:54,860 --> 00:19:55,918 Oh god that was days ago. 301 00:19:56,061 --> 00:19:57,119 Yes I know. 302 00:19:57,429 --> 00:19:58,953 Listen Matt's found a section of dead pine 303 00:19:59,097 --> 00:20:01,657 to the north east of Sour Creek Dome. 304 00:20:01,800 --> 00:20:02,562 You got a visitor. 305 00:20:02,701 --> 00:20:04,999 Hang on, north east of Sour Creek Dome along 306 00:20:05,137 --> 00:20:07,731 a ring fracture of the caldera rim. 307 00:20:07,940 --> 00:20:08,668 CO2 or heat? 308 00:20:08,807 --> 00:20:10,638 CO2 suffocating the roots. 309 00:20:13,212 --> 00:20:15,476 The magma's only two to three kilometres deep at that point. 310 00:20:15,614 --> 00:20:17,445 Yes or less if it's rising. 311 00:20:25,490 --> 00:20:26,889 Alright so, who is it? 312 00:20:27,192 --> 00:20:28,887 Wendy something from FEMA. 313 00:20:29,294 --> 00:20:30,522 Wendy Reiss? 314 00:20:30,729 --> 00:20:32,424 The under secretary in charge of the 315 00:20:32,564 --> 00:20:34,498 Federal Emergency Management Agency is here, 316 00:20:34,633 --> 00:20:38,000 you told her to wait in my office? You' re fired Dave. 317 00:20:38,403 --> 00:20:39,199 You can't fire me. 318 00:20:39,338 --> 00:20:40,635 Yes you' re lucky that's true. 319 00:20:41,306 --> 00:20:42,330 I' m sorry. 320 00:20:43,208 --> 00:20:44,470 Ms Reiss. 321 00:20:47,212 --> 00:20:50,306 You have caught me off guard. I' m Richard Lieberman. 322 00:20:50,549 --> 00:20:52,107 Yes Rick, I recognise you from the television. 323 00:20:52,251 --> 00:20:53,149 Oh. 324 00:20:53,318 --> 00:20:54,114 Please call me Wendy. 325 00:20:54,253 --> 00:20:56,312 Thanks, well, sorry about the mess, Wendy. 326 00:20:56,455 --> 00:20:57,251 No problem. 327 00:20:57,389 --> 00:20:59,448 It's been a busy couple of days. Please sit down. 328 00:21:00,425 --> 00:21:02,120 Yes, l' m just going to cut to the chase Rick. 329 00:21:02,928 --> 00:21:05,954 I want to know if we should be worried about this. 330 00:21:11,336 --> 00:21:13,964 Er, based on the data that we' re getting, 331 00:21:14,106 --> 00:21:18,236 yes there are indicators that there could be an eruption. 332 00:21:18,443 --> 00:21:22,277 Or it could be business as usual at Yellowstone. 333 00:21:24,316 --> 00:21:27,217 And if there is an eruption then there is a good possibility 334 00:21:27,352 --> 00:21:30,321 that it's going to be a moderate one. 335 00:21:30,455 --> 00:21:31,183 This isn't enough Rick. 336 00:21:31,323 --> 00:21:32,984 If there's even the slightest chance of this happening, 337 00:21:33,125 --> 00:21:34,319 I want to know what that means. 338 00:21:34,459 --> 00:21:35,721 I want to know what we can do about it. 339 00:21:35,861 --> 00:21:38,853 How much do you know about Super-eruptions? 340 00:21:40,132 --> 00:21:42,999 Super in front of eruption I don't imagine means better? 341 00:21:45,370 --> 00:21:46,359 Can I show you something? 342 00:21:46,538 --> 00:21:47,402 Please. 343 00:21:48,307 --> 00:21:51,538 See the magma chamber that sits underneath Yellowstone, 344 00:21:51,777 --> 00:21:54,041 well here, we think it's roughly 345 00:21:54,179 --> 00:21:56,807 the same dimensions as the caldera rim itself. 346 00:21:56,948 --> 00:22:02,909 We think it's around 40km wide by 80km long and around 8km deep. 347 00:22:03,121 --> 00:22:04,053 You think. 348 00:22:04,456 --> 00:22:07,220 Yes, it's a very difficult thing to get a clear picture of. 349 00:22:07,826 --> 00:22:09,384 In fact the only way to even attempt to see 350 00:22:09,528 --> 00:22:14,192 a magma chamber is ironically enough by relying on earthquakes. 351 00:22:15,267 --> 00:22:16,291 Have a seat please. 352 00:22:16,435 --> 00:22:16,867 Thank you. 353 00:22:17,002 --> 00:22:19,027 It's called seismic tomography. 354 00:22:19,237 --> 00:22:21,171 What we do is we plant an array of seismographs throughout 355 00:22:21,306 --> 00:22:26,243 the Park and then when an earthquake occurs the seismic 356 00:22:26,378 --> 00:22:30,041 shockwaves from these events travel through the earth. 357 00:22:30,182 --> 00:22:32,673 Now these waves move slightly slower 358 00:22:32,818 --> 00:22:35,286 through the molten rock than through the solid rock, 359 00:22:35,620 --> 00:22:38,748 so we can use these slight differences in arrival time here at 360 00:22:38,890 --> 00:22:42,018 the seismometers to begin to calculate and plot 361 00:22:42,160 --> 00:22:45,357 the rough dimensions of the chamber. It's kind of like sonar. 362 00:22:46,131 --> 00:22:48,031 And that tells you how much magma is down there? 363 00:22:48,633 --> 00:22:50,624 Well what we are trying to determine essentially 364 00:22:50,769 --> 00:22:52,634 is the nature of this magma. 365 00:22:52,771 --> 00:22:54,762 Is it eruptible magma? 366 00:22:54,906 --> 00:22:57,875 Is it too viscous, is it too sticky to go anywhere? 367 00:22:58,009 --> 00:23:01,536 Or is it molten enough, is it liquid enough that it can escape? 368 00:23:02,447 --> 00:23:04,915 You know we also want to know how it's situated in the chamber, 369 00:23:05,050 --> 00:23:08,213 is it kind of spread out in individual pods 370 00:23:08,353 --> 00:23:10,321 or pockets throughout the chamber? 371 00:23:10,455 --> 00:23:15,552 Or and this is what we don't want, is it accumulated in one place? 372 00:23:15,927 --> 00:23:20,296 Sufficient enough that it could trigger a Super-eruption? 373 00:23:21,533 --> 00:23:23,262 OK let's talk worst case scenario. 374 00:23:23,602 --> 00:23:26,730 OK. Well we have run some projections based 375 00:23:26,872 --> 00:23:30,968 on the first Super-eruption at Yellowstone at 2.1 million years ago. 376 00:23:31,109 --> 00:23:34,840 Essentially because this is the one we have the most data available on. 377 00:23:35,113 --> 00:23:38,776 Now if the next one were to behave in a similar way, 378 00:23:39,351 --> 00:23:41,410 then we would be looking at between two 379 00:23:41,553 --> 00:23:44,784 and 3,000 cubic kilometres of rock, 380 00:23:45,056 --> 00:23:49,823 gas and ash erupting across the United States 381 00:23:49,961 --> 00:23:52,725 in a pattern that looks like this. 382 00:23:53,198 --> 00:23:58,261 Zone 1 represents 1 00km radius around Yellowstone. 383 00:23:58,470 --> 00:24:00,870 Basically everything in this area would 384 00:24:01,006 --> 00:24:04,567 be completely wiped out by pyroclastic flows. 385 00:24:05,177 --> 00:24:08,442 That's the rock and ash that spills from the side of an erupted column? 386 00:24:10,882 --> 00:24:13,146 That is a pyroclastic flow. 387 00:24:13,618 --> 00:24:18,214 These surges can travel up to 700km an hour. 388 00:24:18,990 --> 00:24:22,391 So yes these journalists were very, very lucky. 389 00:24:23,762 --> 00:24:27,254 Yes this woman was caught at the edge of a pyroclastic flow, 390 00:24:27,399 --> 00:24:31,358 you see these surges can reach up to 800 degrees Celsius. 391 00:24:33,104 --> 00:24:35,334 Anyway yes that's what happens to anyone that's 392 00:24:35,474 --> 00:24:39,069 within the first 1 00km radius of a volcano.... 393 00:24:40,011 --> 00:24:43,469 ...Now out here in Zones 2 and 3, 394 00:24:44,049 --> 00:24:45,914 virtually everyone and everything in these two areas 395 00:24:46,051 --> 00:24:49,145 will be trapped by extremely heavy ash fall. 396 00:24:49,654 --> 00:24:51,986 That's roughly 3million people. 397 00:24:54,059 --> 00:24:55,151 Yes. 398 00:24:55,627 --> 00:25:00,997 And here out in Zone 4 we' re talking about ash fall of around 15cm. 399 00:25:01,333 --> 00:25:05,599 15cm that doesn't sound like a lot but you add rain to 15cm 400 00:25:05,737 --> 00:25:10,071 of volcanic ash and that is certainly enough to collapse a roof. 401 00:25:11,042 --> 00:25:18,107 And then you know in Zone 5 it gets down to around 5cm of ash fall. 402 00:25:18,650 --> 00:25:21,881 This is a huge area, covering most of the grasslands. 403 00:25:22,220 --> 00:25:24,154 Any animals that happen to be grazing there. 404 00:25:24,289 --> 00:25:26,086 And that's also the grain belt of course, 405 00:25:26,224 --> 00:25:28,488 so that's all the food gone. 406 00:25:30,328 --> 00:25:34,355 And then Zone 6 we tail down to around 1cm of ash, 407 00:25:34,499 --> 00:25:37,730 extending out to the Eastern Seaboard. 408 00:25:37,903 --> 00:25:42,602 A centimetre. I read it takes just one millimetre to close an airport. 409 00:25:42,807 --> 00:25:44,934 Yes. See the thing that people don't understand 410 00:25:45,076 --> 00:25:47,374 about volcanic ash is it's not like ash from your 411 00:25:47,512 --> 00:25:53,542 backyard barbeque, it's rock. It's abrasive, 412 00:25:53,685 --> 00:25:55,778 it's pervasive, it's destructive, 413 00:25:55,921 --> 00:25:58,583 it shorts out electrical equipment, it clogs machinery. 414 00:25:58,723 --> 00:25:59,587 You name it. 415 00:25:59,724 --> 00:26:03,626 It's also extremely tiny, it's 100 microns across, 416 00:26:03,762 --> 00:26:07,220 it's so tiny you can inhale it and when you do it combines 417 00:26:07,365 --> 00:26:09,629 with the moisture in your lungs and forms 418 00:26:09,768 --> 00:26:11,963 a cement-like mixture. 419 00:26:12,237 --> 00:26:17,300 You essentially drown in what's basically liquid concrete. 420 00:26:19,110 --> 00:26:25,413 Anway that is the worst case scenario. So you tell me. 421 00:26:25,550 --> 00:26:28,018 I mean if an event like this were to happen, 422 00:26:28,353 --> 00:26:30,048 what is FEMA going to do? 423 00:26:31,957 --> 00:26:33,185 Is it going to happen? 424 00:26:33,325 --> 00:26:36,192 Is it going to happen? Yes. It is going to happen. 425 00:26:36,328 --> 00:26:38,228 Is it going to happen in our lifetime? 426 00:26:40,332 --> 00:26:41,526 I don't know. 427 00:26:43,101 --> 00:26:46,901 And that is the most honest answer that anybody can give you, Wendy. 428 00:26:47,038 --> 00:26:48,403 I don't know. 429 00:28:16,695 --> 00:28:17,354 I' ll beep Rick 430 00:28:17,495 --> 00:28:20,692 Well contact the other stations, re-establish an exact location. 431 00:28:36,614 --> 00:28:37,945 Mr Lieberman. 432 00:28:38,083 --> 00:28:39,448 Yes hang on, hang on. 433 00:28:39,584 --> 00:28:40,448 Mr Lieberman. 434 00:28:40,585 --> 00:28:40,914 Yes. 435 00:28:41,052 --> 00:28:42,917 Are you still denying the possibility of a Super-eruption? 436 00:28:43,054 --> 00:28:45,454 Norris, as I've said to you before Miss Chin, 437 00:28:45,590 --> 00:28:47,888 Norris was a hydrothermal event and by no means 438 00:28:48,026 --> 00:28:51,052 a sure fire indicator of volcanic activity. 439 00:28:51,196 --> 00:28:53,892 And certainly not on the scale that you are referring to. 440 00:28:54,032 --> 00:28:55,897 Nevertheless we have issued a Code Red warning 441 00:28:56,034 --> 00:28:58,002 because we don't take these things lightly. 442 00:28:58,136 --> 00:28:59,626 Yes thank you. 443 00:29:00,371 --> 00:29:01,269 Daddy. 444 00:29:01,639 --> 00:29:04,574 Yes. He's getting famous. 445 00:29:04,709 --> 00:29:07,200 But you can't rule out a Super-eruption can you? 446 00:29:08,213 --> 00:29:10,204 He looks hot. 447 00:29:10,782 --> 00:29:12,340 It's twice as likely as an asteroid strike, 448 00:29:12,484 --> 00:29:13,542 according to some experts. 449 00:29:13,685 --> 00:29:16,017 And half as unlikely as being struck by lightening 450 00:29:16,154 --> 00:29:18,452 Miss Chin and how many of us lose sleep over that? 451 00:29:18,590 --> 00:29:19,682 That's all the time we have, thank you. 452 00:29:19,824 --> 00:29:21,257 Thank you very much. 453 00:29:22,927 --> 00:29:24,224 Too much politics and not enough science. 454 00:29:24,362 --> 00:29:26,159 OK are we ready to run this simulation? 455 00:29:26,297 --> 00:29:27,321 Let's do it. 456 00:29:27,465 --> 00:29:29,262 Alright, so what I'd like to do is run through 457 00:29:29,400 --> 00:29:30,924 a couple of potential scenarios here. 458 00:29:31,069 --> 00:29:34,630 Hey Rick we've got another quake just over a mile south of Norris. 459 00:29:34,773 --> 00:29:35,705 OK how big? 460 00:29:35,840 --> 00:29:36,670 1.9. 461 00:29:36,808 --> 00:29:37,968 1.9 OK. 462 00:29:38,576 --> 00:29:41,409 Now this anomaly that we have discovered near Norris, 463 00:29:41,546 --> 00:29:44,913 now this could be water and gas as we know, or worst case 464 00:29:45,049 --> 00:29:48,348 scenario, it could be a new pod of eruptible magma. 465 00:29:48,820 --> 00:29:50,811 So I want to concentrate our simulations around 466 00:29:50,955 --> 00:29:54,823 this area and see what the potential damage could be. 467 00:29:54,959 --> 00:29:55,755 OK? 468 00:29:55,894 --> 00:29:58,192 So option number one, let's say that 469 00:29:58,329 --> 00:30:02,959 we've got one cubic kilometer of eruptible magma. 470 00:30:03,868 --> 00:30:04,459 OK? 471 00:30:04,602 --> 00:30:06,433 And drop it. 472 00:30:08,573 --> 00:30:09,733 Run it. 473 00:30:16,514 --> 00:30:17,503 No eruption. 474 00:30:17,749 --> 00:30:19,512 Based on option one, it seems not. 475 00:30:19,651 --> 00:30:22,085 Alright then let's keep all the other parameters the same, 476 00:30:22,220 --> 00:30:26,554 but increase it by five. So we' ll make it five cubic kilometres. 477 00:30:33,865 --> 00:30:34,957 OK how big is this? 478 00:30:35,333 --> 00:30:36,925 Moderate, VEl-2. 479 00:30:37,202 --> 00:30:38,999 VEl-2. And duration? 480 00:30:39,270 --> 00:30:40,760 Over approximately three days. 481 00:30:41,906 --> 00:30:44,306 With that amount of magma it could have been a lot bigger. 482 00:30:44,442 --> 00:30:46,876 OK let's increase it by another factor of five. 483 00:30:47,011 --> 00:30:50,105 And make it 25 cubic kilometres. 484 00:30:50,615 --> 00:30:51,513 OK. 485 00:30:51,950 --> 00:30:52,939 Whenever you are ready. 486 00:30:57,555 --> 00:31:00,115 VEl-5. Mount St Helens size. 487 00:31:01,059 --> 00:31:08,830 Right. So 1 0 times more magma, 1 000 times more eruption. 488 00:31:10,068 --> 00:31:11,057 Potentially. 489 00:31:11,202 --> 00:31:12,965 OK so let's increase it by another factor 490 00:31:13,104 --> 00:31:18,269 of five and make it 1 25 cubic kilometres. 491 00:31:18,710 --> 00:31:19,642 And this time let's just run it this time 492 00:31:19,777 --> 00:31:21,369 just from the hydrothermal blast. 493 00:31:21,512 --> 00:31:22,479 Sure. 494 00:31:29,387 --> 00:31:30,649 VEl-5 again. 495 00:31:31,389 --> 00:31:35,416 OK. VEl-5. again. 496 00:31:51,209 --> 00:31:55,441 Oh what happened? 497 00:31:56,114 --> 00:31:57,308 Computer glitch? 498 00:31:58,249 --> 00:32:03,414 OK tell me what we just saw. Alright l' ll say it. 499 00:32:04,656 --> 00:32:06,055 If we have a reservoir of melt down 500 00:32:06,190 --> 00:32:11,150 there that's larger than 1 25 cubic kilometres 501 00:32:12,030 --> 00:32:13,520 then this model is telling us that even 502 00:32:13,665 --> 00:32:16,930 a moderate eruption near Norris could destabilise the rest 503 00:32:17,068 --> 00:32:19,866 of the chamber and trigger a... 504 00:32:21,372 --> 00:32:25,138 VEl-8 Super-eruption. 505 00:32:28,947 --> 00:32:32,383 That's great, great, and if frogs 506 00:32:32,517 --> 00:32:34,644 had wings then they wouldn't bump 507 00:32:34,786 --> 00:32:37,152 their little green arses hopping around then. 508 00:32:37,689 --> 00:32:40,249 Ha ha. If, if there was a pocket of melt over 509 00:32:40,391 --> 00:32:45,488 125 cubic kilometres in a possible eruption at Norris 510 00:32:45,630 --> 00:32:48,258 may trigger further eruptions which maybe, 511 00:32:48,399 --> 00:32:51,857 just possibly could register as VEl-8. 512 00:32:52,070 --> 00:32:53,594 Brilliant. Great. 513 00:32:54,072 --> 00:32:59,271 Jesus you' re letting yourself be spooked by a video game. Oh... 514 00:33:31,909 --> 00:33:32,841 Rick? 515 00:33:33,411 --> 00:33:34,173 Yes. 516 00:33:34,412 --> 00:33:36,880 Hey it's Nancy. You'd better get up here right away. 517 00:33:40,084 --> 00:33:42,985 OK so where's this uplift concentrated? 518 00:33:43,688 --> 00:33:45,588 Here, Firehole River Basin. 519 00:33:45,957 --> 00:33:47,049 It's miles from Norris. 520 00:33:47,191 --> 00:33:51,184 Hang on, the question is, is this rising magma or is this ground water? 521 00:33:51,963 --> 00:33:53,863 I could make a plausible case for either. 522 00:33:54,465 --> 00:33:55,397 Yes I know you could. 523 00:33:55,666 --> 00:33:58,191 Another 2.2 to the north east of Norris. 524 00:33:58,770 --> 00:34:02,536 That's the third today, so we've got another swarm coming? 525 00:34:04,242 --> 00:34:06,210 I need the SRl data for the entire Park. 526 00:34:06,544 --> 00:34:09,069 Can we get more instrumentation down at Firehole River Basin? 527 00:34:09,313 --> 00:34:11,440 If we steal them from elsewhere. 528 00:34:13,718 --> 00:34:14,912 Well, steal them. 529 00:34:16,187 --> 00:34:18,451 The ground uplift, earthquake swarms, 530 00:34:18,623 --> 00:34:22,354 rising levels of carbon dioxide and the hydrothermal event. 531 00:34:23,895 --> 00:34:26,921 All of these things can be indicators of volcanic activity. 532 00:34:27,465 --> 00:34:29,831 Equally they can mean nothing. 533 00:34:31,436 --> 00:34:35,167 We closed the Park to be safe, but that didn't stop 534 00:34:35,339 --> 00:34:38,399 the hoards of people coming to check it out for themselves. 535 00:34:40,611 --> 00:34:43,273 Hey Rick, Rick. 536 00:34:43,514 --> 00:34:43,912 Hang on. 537 00:34:44,048 --> 00:34:44,810 Hey. 538 00:34:46,384 --> 00:34:47,282 Miss Chin. 539 00:34:47,852 --> 00:34:48,648 Can we come in? 540 00:34:51,022 --> 00:34:54,253 Look, I've got to cover this one way or another. 541 00:34:54,992 --> 00:34:55,924 It's my job. 542 00:34:56,694 --> 00:34:58,753 OK. Do you want to cover this? 543 00:35:00,131 --> 00:35:02,326 Alright then you need to understand what it is that you are covering. 544 00:35:02,467 --> 00:35:05,129 Yes it's me, get me Matt. Come on in, Maggie. 545 00:35:05,269 --> 00:35:05,701 Guys. 546 00:35:05,837 --> 00:35:09,796 I' m sorry guys, not the crew, OK? Come on through. 547 00:35:10,508 --> 00:35:12,999 Just not the crew. It's me, right, 548 00:35:13,144 --> 00:35:15,635 we are going to give Maggie Chin the tour. 549 00:35:32,797 --> 00:35:34,128 Take a look up there. 550 00:35:42,907 --> 00:35:46,206 You are looking at the north western rim of the giant caldera. 551 00:35:47,712 --> 00:35:51,580 Where the ground fell over 1000 feet after the last Super-eruption. 552 00:35:55,553 --> 00:35:57,214 So we are in the volcano? 553 00:35:57,421 --> 00:35:58,581 Sure are. 554 00:36:02,326 --> 00:36:05,090 I thought we'd take a little drive to the other side. 555 00:36:24,248 --> 00:36:25,306 So, what can you see? 556 00:36:26,651 --> 00:36:27,743 Yellowstone Lake. 557 00:36:28,219 --> 00:36:30,915 OK. Now look out across the lake to that range 558 00:36:31,055 --> 00:36:32,750 of mountains on the far side. 559 00:36:33,558 --> 00:36:34,183 The Absarokas? 560 00:36:34,425 --> 00:36:37,417 That's right. How far would you say those mountains are from here? 561 00:36:37,828 --> 00:36:41,855 How far? 1 0 miles? 562 00:36:41,999 --> 00:36:45,332 Roughly 1 5. Now those mountains are 563 00:36:45,469 --> 00:36:48,563 where you will find the eastern edge of the giant caldera. 564 00:36:48,706 --> 00:36:52,437 The western edge is about another 1 5 miles behind us. 565 00:36:52,777 --> 00:36:56,269 And north to south it's even further, it's over 50 miles. 566 00:36:56,514 --> 00:36:59,176 So that's about 45 minutes of driving and 567 00:36:59,317 --> 00:37:01,842 we are still only in the centre of the volcano crater. 568 00:37:02,286 --> 00:37:03,218 What's your point, Matt? 569 00:37:03,354 --> 00:37:07,586 My point is, if this thing erupts you' ll die. 570 00:37:08,226 --> 00:37:10,820 If you think you are going to win some award or get promoted 571 00:37:10,962 --> 00:37:13,430 because you knew about this first, you won't. 572 00:37:13,564 --> 00:37:16,328 There won't be anyone around to give you your pat on the back. 573 00:37:21,806 --> 00:37:24,468 Maam, you need to get some perspective. 574 00:37:45,830 --> 00:37:47,127 Where is it? 575 00:37:48,766 --> 00:37:49,323 Norris. 576 00:37:51,202 --> 00:37:53,067 Do you want to suggest a change of alert? 577 00:37:53,204 --> 00:37:56,696 Yes you know another Red is going to create more panic. 578 00:37:56,841 --> 00:37:57,933 This is as sure as we get. 579 00:37:58,075 --> 00:37:58,268 I know. 580 00:37:58,409 --> 00:37:59,501 This is imminent. 581 00:37:59,644 --> 00:38:00,406 I know. 582 00:38:00,544 --> 00:38:02,478 You want me to plug the data into VlRGlL? 583 00:38:02,613 --> 00:38:03,204 And find out what? 584 00:38:03,347 --> 00:38:03,813 Hang on, hang on please. 585 00:38:03,948 --> 00:38:04,972 No really, and find out what? 586 00:38:05,116 --> 00:38:07,482 Please. Let's do that and just see if... 587 00:38:07,618 --> 00:38:08,209 Jesus Rick. 588 00:38:08,352 --> 00:38:11,287 Look there's going to be an eruption, OK we know that. 589 00:38:11,422 --> 00:38:13,481 I don't need you to tell me what harmonic tremor means. 590 00:38:13,624 --> 00:38:17,560 So now you need to advise an upgrade to the alert status 591 00:38:17,695 --> 00:38:19,185 and you need to let people know. 592 00:38:19,330 --> 00:38:21,924 OK so if I upgrade to a Red everyone's going to think that 593 00:38:22,066 --> 00:38:24,398 we've got a Super-eruption on our hands. 594 00:38:24,535 --> 00:38:27,868 I am not going to be held responsible for some kind of mass panic here. 595 00:38:28,005 --> 00:38:29,939 OK it is our responsibility. 596 00:38:30,074 --> 00:38:30,369 Jock. 597 00:38:30,508 --> 00:38:31,270 No shut up Dave. 598 00:38:31,409 --> 00:38:33,639 It's our job, it's our duty to let people know, 599 00:38:33,778 --> 00:38:34,938 to tell them what we know. 600 00:38:35,079 --> 00:38:36,341 So get your arse off the fence. 601 00:38:36,480 --> 00:38:38,675 And you tell me what going on TV and 602 00:38:38,816 --> 00:38:41,410 telling Joe Six-Pack that the end of the world is nigh. 603 00:38:41,552 --> 00:38:43,713 You tell me how that's going to help this situation? 604 00:38:43,854 --> 00:38:45,287 What do you think our purpose is here? 605 00:38:45,423 --> 00:38:47,891 I will brief FEMA and I will brief the State 606 00:38:48,025 --> 00:38:50,323 but just before they evacuate the whole of America, 607 00:38:50,461 --> 00:38:53,589 they are going to want to know how big the thing's going to be. 608 00:38:56,867 --> 00:38:59,665 Well at least the ship's got a bloody captain now. 609 00:39:02,640 --> 00:39:03,299 What is going on? 610 00:39:03,441 --> 00:39:04,635 Nothing is going on, whatever you say. 611 00:39:04,775 --> 00:39:06,538 Oh come on, what, no mention of it for weeks and all 612 00:39:06,677 --> 00:39:07,701 of a sudden we' re going to England? 613 00:39:07,845 --> 00:39:08,368 It's not like that. 614 00:39:08,512 --> 00:39:09,604 I' m not supposed to be suspicious? 615 00:39:09,747 --> 00:39:12,011 Look you said that you wanted to go and see your mum, right? 616 00:39:12,149 --> 00:39:13,616 Oh Jesus Rick, just be honest with me. 617 00:39:13,751 --> 00:39:14,581 I' m being honest with you. 618 00:39:14,719 --> 00:39:14,912 Are you? 619 00:39:15,052 --> 00:39:15,347 Yes. 620 00:39:15,486 --> 00:39:17,249 If this is going to be a big eruption, you've got to come with us 621 00:39:17,488 --> 00:39:20,116 Look it's going to be exactly what I said that it's going to be. 622 00:39:20,257 --> 00:39:22,885 You know, this little girl may never meet her father 623 00:39:23,027 --> 00:39:24,654 because of the decision you are making right now 624 00:39:26,130 --> 00:39:30,499 Come on, we all believe that this is going to be a moderate eruption. 625 00:39:30,634 --> 00:39:31,828 And yes, things are going to go a 626 00:39:31,969 --> 00:39:33,732 Iittle crazy in this country for a while. 627 00:39:33,871 --> 00:39:36,704 That's because everyone's nervous right now. 628 00:39:36,874 --> 00:39:37,431 God Rick. 629 00:39:37,575 --> 00:39:41,033 That's why I'd just be happier if you both were in London, 630 00:39:41,178 --> 00:39:43,373 when all that's going on. 631 00:39:43,514 --> 00:39:47,450 And then when things calm down then l' ll come. 632 00:39:47,585 --> 00:39:48,313 I' ll see you. 633 00:39:50,621 --> 00:39:52,282 Can we go on the plane now? 634 00:39:52,523 --> 00:39:56,983 Yes you' re going to go on the plane now. You take care of your mum OK? 635 00:39:57,128 --> 00:39:57,753 OK. 636 00:39:58,062 --> 00:39:58,994 You call me when you get there. 637 00:39:59,130 --> 00:39:59,824 I will. 638 00:40:01,899 --> 00:40:03,457 Get on the plane. I love you. See ya. 639 00:40:26,023 --> 00:40:28,856 I' m going to refer you to our San Francisco FEMA office 640 00:40:28,993 --> 00:40:31,018 and I want you to talk to Lisa Cochrane. 641 00:40:31,162 --> 00:40:35,428 She will be the one to direct any activity at that point. 642 00:40:35,566 --> 00:40:36,157 OK 643 00:40:39,537 --> 00:40:40,094 One moment. 644 00:40:44,542 --> 00:40:45,907 Bring the centre screen volume up. 645 00:40:46,043 --> 00:40:49,171 A leaked e-mail seen by KCVZ confirms that the 646 00:40:49,313 --> 00:40:53,909 US Geological Survey expects an eruption any time soon. 647 00:40:54,051 --> 00:40:56,417 Possibly within hours. 648 00:40:56,554 --> 00:41:01,150 And possibly with devastating consequences for America and the world. 649 00:41:01,292 --> 00:41:01,621 Oh god. 650 00:41:01,759 --> 00:41:04,023 I' m Maggie Chin with KCVZ News, 651 00:41:04,161 --> 00:41:06,425 reporting to you live from Yellowstone National Park. 652 00:41:11,035 --> 00:41:13,060 Sir, this is Rick Lieberman. 653 00:41:13,204 --> 00:41:13,602 Hi. 654 00:41:13,737 --> 00:41:15,466 Rick, Joe Foster, Secretary for Homeland Security. 655 00:41:15,606 --> 00:41:17,540 Michael you know of course. 656 00:41:18,976 --> 00:41:19,567 Hi. 657 00:41:20,411 --> 00:41:22,311 Governor Marshall should be joining us at any moment. 658 00:41:22,546 --> 00:41:24,013 I didn't expect to see you here. 659 00:41:25,483 --> 00:41:26,313 Hello everybody. 660 00:41:27,218 --> 00:41:29,015 Billy, glad you could join us. 661 00:41:29,286 --> 00:41:32,221 Half my State's about to be vaporised, I thought I should be, you know? 662 00:41:32,356 --> 00:41:35,450 Everyone please have a seat. I' ll get straight to the point. 663 00:41:35,693 --> 00:41:38,457 This leak hasn't just caused chaos here, 664 00:41:38,596 --> 00:41:39,824 but around the world. 665 00:41:40,798 --> 00:41:43,198 Well it certainly didn't come from USGS. 666 00:41:43,334 --> 00:41:44,301 Nor from FEMA 667 00:41:44,435 --> 00:41:45,959 Yes alright people, the buck is well passed. 668 00:41:46,103 --> 00:41:48,628 Wherever it came from, the media have got hold of it 669 00:41:48,772 --> 00:41:51,070 and now have got to address it. 670 00:41:51,208 --> 00:41:55,702 So Rick, what l' m going to ask you is very simple. 671 00:41:56,747 --> 00:41:59,409 I need you to make a statement ruling out the 672 00:41:59,550 --> 00:42:01,074 possibility of a Super-eruption. 673 00:42:03,621 --> 00:42:05,452 Ruling it out? 674 00:42:05,589 --> 00:42:07,250 Nothing bigger than Mount St Helens. 675 00:42:08,192 --> 00:42:12,026 People would accept that and it's what the evidence suggests. 676 00:42:12,363 --> 00:42:13,625 I can't. 677 00:42:14,331 --> 00:42:15,263 I beg your pardon? 678 00:42:15,399 --> 00:42:17,560 I' m sorry I can't, I can't say that. 679 00:42:17,935 --> 00:42:18,731 Why the hell not? 680 00:42:19,670 --> 00:42:22,400 Because our computer model now suggests 681 00:42:22,540 --> 00:42:24,974 that even a small eruption could destabilise 682 00:42:25,109 --> 00:42:27,600 the magma chamber and trigger a Super-eruption. 683 00:42:32,116 --> 00:42:35,608 Rick I understand that but you are talking a remote possibility. 684 00:42:35,753 --> 00:42:36,777 No l' m talking about... 685 00:42:36,921 --> 00:42:39,116 What I am talking about are hard facts. 686 00:42:39,256 --> 00:42:41,622 Fact one, there are food riots. 687 00:42:42,259 --> 00:42:44,955 People are fighting each other to leave the country. 688 00:42:45,095 --> 00:42:48,326 Fact two, the dollar is on its knees, Wall Street has crashed. 689 00:42:48,599 --> 00:42:50,499 Your country is going down the toilet 690 00:42:50,634 --> 00:42:52,659 and you are telling me you are not prepared to make 691 00:42:52,803 --> 00:42:53,963 a statement to help stop that? 692 00:42:54,305 --> 00:42:55,738 Please with all due respect sir... 693 00:42:55,873 --> 00:42:56,430 Governor Marshall? 694 00:42:56,574 --> 00:43:02,570 Rick, every highway, every lnterstate in Montana, 695 00:43:02,713 --> 00:43:04,874 Wyoming, Utah, Nebraska, the Dakotas, 696 00:43:05,015 --> 00:43:10,783 Iowa and Nevada's turning into a god-damn parking lot. 697 00:43:10,921 --> 00:43:12,912 Now everybody' s trying to get the hell away from Yellowstone, 698 00:43:13,057 --> 00:43:14,581 nothing's even happened yet. 699 00:43:15,392 --> 00:43:15,858 Yet. 700 00:43:18,228 --> 00:43:21,686 The point is Rick, even if the worst does happen, 701 00:43:21,832 --> 00:43:24,232 we are clogging up the roads, screwing up the airlines, 702 00:43:24,368 --> 00:43:26,529 it's not going to do any of us any good. 703 00:43:26,670 --> 00:43:28,035 Yes I appreciate that, Wendy, I do. 704 00:43:28,172 --> 00:43:30,197 But until I have something definitive, 705 00:43:30,341 --> 00:43:32,104 please don't make me make statements that... 706 00:43:32,242 --> 00:43:34,802 Rick, you know as well as I do that harmonic 707 00:43:34,945 --> 00:43:37,778 tremor can stop as well as start. 708 00:43:37,915 --> 00:43:38,313 Mike. 709 00:43:38,449 --> 00:43:39,882 It is your responsibility. 710 00:43:40,017 --> 00:43:41,882 My responsibility is to tell the public 711 00:43:42,019 --> 00:43:44,385 and the land-holders what is happening at Yellowstone. 712 00:43:44,521 --> 00:43:46,955 You know that. You used to know that 713 00:43:47,992 --> 00:43:50,119 Actually Rick, as a federal employee, 714 00:43:50,260 --> 00:43:52,785 your responsibility is what's best for the country. 715 00:43:52,930 --> 00:43:56,161 Now you have evidence of an eruption but, 716 00:43:56,300 --> 00:43:58,768 and I have heard you say this yourself again and again, 717 00:43:58,902 --> 00:44:02,167 chances of a Super-eruption are virtually zero. 718 00:44:03,707 --> 00:44:05,334 No you are right, but l... 719 00:44:05,476 --> 00:44:08,502 Then I really don't see what the problem is here. 720 00:44:13,917 --> 00:44:15,145 Thank you all, see you in 10 minutes. 721 00:44:35,205 --> 00:44:37,002 Tremor' s strong and constant, 722 00:44:37,908 --> 00:44:40,399 I'm plugging the co-ordinates into the seismic image. 723 00:44:40,577 --> 00:44:43,512 Should give us a clearer idea of where the magma is. 724 00:44:43,647 --> 00:44:46,775 Good. You got everything you need, Dave? 725 00:44:47,017 --> 00:44:47,813 I think so. 726 00:44:47,951 --> 00:44:48,315 Right. 727 00:44:48,452 --> 00:44:50,386 Well, enough to get me going until you guys join me tomorrow. 728 00:44:50,521 --> 00:44:52,079 Oh we' ll be out here first thing. 729 00:44:52,222 --> 00:44:54,122 Alright. Don't leave it too long. 730 00:44:54,258 --> 00:44:54,917 Don't worry. 731 00:44:55,059 --> 00:44:55,582 OK. 732 00:44:56,427 --> 00:44:56,859 You out of here? 733 00:44:56,994 --> 00:44:57,858 I' m out of here, see you tomorrow. 734 00:44:57,995 --> 00:44:59,257 You take care man. 735 00:45:01,932 --> 00:45:03,524 Ladies and gentlemen, as you know... 736 00:45:03,667 --> 00:45:04,463 Rick's on TV. 737 00:45:04,601 --> 00:45:07,365 ...America and the world has been watching 738 00:45:07,504 --> 00:45:09,972 with growing anxiety the developing situation 739 00:45:10,107 --> 00:45:11,938 at Yellowstone National Park. 740 00:45:12,076 --> 00:45:14,636 After a full briefing from the US Geological Survey and in 741 00:45:14,778 --> 00:45:19,806 particular the scientist in charge at Yellowstone Volcano Observatory, 742 00:45:19,950 --> 00:45:22,646 Rick Lieberman, I can assure you all that after 743 00:45:22,786 --> 00:45:26,552 weeks of intensive monitoring at Yellowstone, 744 00:45:26,690 --> 00:45:30,251 they have gathered no evidence to suggest a so- 745 00:45:30,394 --> 00:45:32,624 called Super-eruption is imminent. 746 00:45:32,763 --> 00:45:35,493 Instead the USGS believes that a small to moderate 747 00:45:35,632 --> 00:45:37,691 eruption - an event comparable in size 748 00:45:37,835 --> 00:45:42,238 to the eruption of Mount St Helens in 1980 - may be due. 749 00:45:42,372 --> 00:45:46,172 At this moment we are taking the appropriate precautions 750 00:45:46,310 --> 00:45:48,403 in line with this scale of eruption, 751 00:45:48,545 --> 00:45:52,276 the evacuation of the Yellowstone vicinity is currently underway. 752 00:45:52,416 --> 00:45:53,849 For those in the States bordering 753 00:45:53,984 --> 00:45:57,579 Wyoming we ask you to follow standard state advice, remain. 754 00:45:57,721 --> 00:46:00,053 indoors, seal all doors and windows and stock up 755 00:46:00,190 --> 00:46:02,852 on sufficient food and water for three days. 756 00:46:03,727 --> 00:46:07,493 I ask my fellow Americans to stay calm and 757 00:46:07,631 --> 00:46:10,464 to use your usual good sense at this time. 758 00:46:11,235 --> 00:46:11,701 Thank you 759 00:46:11,835 --> 00:46:13,666 Mr Lieberman, Mr Lieberman, 760 00:46:13,804 --> 00:46:16,068 Mr Lieberman up until now you have been extremely 761 00:46:16,206 --> 00:46:18,470 measured in your statements about Yellowstone. 762 00:46:18,609 --> 00:46:22,807 Do you agree with Secretary Foster in what he's just said now? 763 00:46:31,321 --> 00:46:32,686 Yes yes I do. 764 00:46:33,423 --> 00:46:34,355 Thank you. 765 00:46:34,491 --> 00:46:35,253 What? 766 00:46:41,131 --> 00:46:43,395 They have nailed the poor bastard to the wall. 767 00:46:46,303 --> 00:46:50,637 Final call for passengers on flight HA356 to San Francisco, 768 00:46:51,809 --> 00:46:55,108 boarding at Gate 24. Thank you. 769 00:46:55,245 --> 00:46:56,473 Boarding pass please. 770 00:46:57,381 --> 00:46:59,508 Right hand side sir towards the rear of the plane. 771 00:46:59,650 --> 00:47:00,378 OK thank you. 772 00:47:01,919 --> 00:47:03,216 You sitting up here? 773 00:47:05,255 --> 00:47:07,746 Yes, no l' m back there. 774 00:47:07,891 --> 00:47:09,791 Important business in Washington and USGS 775 00:47:09,927 --> 00:47:11,019 has you sitting in the back of the plane? 776 00:47:11,395 --> 00:47:14,091 I recommend a sweet publishing deal, big TV star like you. 777 00:47:14,231 --> 00:47:15,323 Oh yes. 778 00:47:16,967 --> 00:47:18,935 I take it you had a gun to your head this afternoon? 779 00:47:19,069 --> 00:47:23,267 Yes you could say that. 780 00:47:23,407 --> 00:47:24,840 Fiona and William? 781 00:47:25,742 --> 00:47:30,270 Oh they are on a plane to London. See you. 782 00:47:42,826 --> 00:47:49,026 OK guys, the last number' s in. Fingers crossed. 783 00:47:59,710 --> 00:48:01,302 Just what are we looking at here? 784 00:48:04,047 --> 00:48:08,108 1500 cubic kilometres of melt. 785 00:48:12,823 --> 00:48:14,916 1500. 786 00:48:16,660 --> 00:48:18,252 That's just the top of the chamber. 787 00:49:09,813 --> 00:49:10,837 Sir please sit down, 788 00:49:10,981 --> 00:49:13,176 the captain hasn't turned the fasten seat belt sign off yet. 789 00:49:13,317 --> 00:49:15,114 Sir there are no cellphones permitted. 790 00:49:15,252 --> 00:49:16,412 ...Field Office... 791 00:49:16,553 --> 00:49:18,145 I have to ask you to turn your phone off. 792 00:49:20,824 --> 00:49:22,883 Jock, I think he's over here. 793 00:49:28,832 --> 00:49:30,197 Argh. Don't touch my arm. 794 00:49:38,041 --> 00:49:42,273 This is it, Matt, it's started. 62268

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