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1
00:01:14,774 --> 00:01:15,798
Keep it coming.
2
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Set me down the computer.
3
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My name is Richard Lieberman.
4
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I am the scientist in charge of,
5
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I was the scientist in charge of
Yellowstone Volcano Observatory.
6
00:01:52,946 --> 00:01:54,311
I' m not sure what day it is.
7
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And l' m not precisely sure
the eruption is over.
8
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I' m trapped here in some kind
of military installation
9
00:02:02,522 --> 00:02:05,616
in some godforsaken
part of Colorado.
10
00:02:07,360 --> 00:02:12,059
We've got no food,
we've got no power and the ash fall
11
00:02:12,198 --> 00:02:14,666
has contaminated the water supply.
12
00:02:15,602 --> 00:02:18,002
The air is so thick with it that
we can barely breathe.
13
00:02:21,641 --> 00:02:25,509
These men that l' m with,
they think if we stay put
14
00:02:25,645 --> 00:02:27,476
that we are going to be rescued,
15
00:02:28,047 --> 00:02:33,679
but I honest to god believe
that if we just watch and wait -
16
00:02:37,624 --> 00:02:39,114
we are as good as dead.
17
00:03:24,070 --> 00:03:26,265
Before it all happened,
many visitors to
18
00:03:26,406 --> 00:03:30,069
Yellowstone were blissfully unaware
that it was volcanic.
19
00:03:31,578 --> 00:03:34,069
After all where
was the cone shaped volcano,
20
00:03:34,214 --> 00:03:36,444
Iike Mt St Helens or Vesuvius?
21
00:03:38,484 --> 00:03:42,352
They didn't realise that they were
actually standing on top of it.
22
00:03:42,755 --> 00:03:46,953
That beneath their feet was one of the
largest volcanoes in the world.
23
00:03:47,627 --> 00:03:51,028
The truth is, we were only
just beginning to understand
24
00:03:51,164 --> 00:03:53,394
the workings of the Park ourselves.
25
00:03:53,733 --> 00:03:57,829
And VlRGlL, the Virtual Geophysical
lmaging Laboratory,
26
00:03:57,971 --> 00:04:00,337
well, that was going to help us.
27
00:04:01,574 --> 00:04:03,565
Maggie Chin,
KCVZ News Salt Lake City.
28
00:04:03,710 --> 00:04:04,176
Hello.
29
00:04:04,310 --> 00:04:06,801
Hello.
Your model is very impressive, sir.
30
00:04:06,946 --> 00:04:08,311
Ah thank you Miss Chin.
31
00:04:08,448 --> 00:04:10,814
My question is, will it help?
32
00:04:10,950 --> 00:04:12,008
Help what, Miss Chin?
33
00:04:12,151 --> 00:04:14,381
Well in the last decade
we have seen more
34
00:04:14,520 --> 00:04:16,886
and more ground uplift at Yellowstone.
35
00:04:17,023 --> 00:04:20,459
Twelve feet, I believe,
is the conservative estimate.
36
00:04:20,593 --> 00:04:22,652
Well that estimate
is not conservative.
37
00:04:22,795 --> 00:04:25,093
Nonetheless,
many of your colleagues
38
00:04:25,231 --> 00:04:27,495
in the scientific
community believe that it's one
39
00:04:27,634 --> 00:04:30,159
of many signs that an
eruption is coming.
40
00:04:30,970 --> 00:04:33,336
I am going to let Rick Lieberman,
41
00:04:33,539 --> 00:04:37,600
scientist in charge of
Yellowstone Volcano Observatory,
42
00:04:37,977 --> 00:04:39,842
deal with that one.
Rick.
43
00:04:40,046 --> 00:04:40,603
Thank you.
44
00:04:40,747 --> 00:04:43,238
This is a sequence
of Yellowstone's geological
45
00:04:43,383 --> 00:04:46,546
behaviour over
the past 1 00 years.
46
00:04:48,254 --> 00:04:49,414
OK there we go.
47
00:04:49,922 --> 00:04:52,720
You see,
what we have beneath our feet
48
00:04:52,859 --> 00:04:54,986
here at Yellowstone is a
type of volcano,
49
00:04:55,128 --> 00:04:59,963
a type of hidden volcano,
referred to as a restless caldera.
50
00:05:00,099 --> 00:05:03,865
Caldera because you' ll notice
it resembles the shape
51
00:05:04,003 --> 00:05:07,495
of a cauldron and restless because
52
00:05:07,640 --> 00:05:08,664
it spends much
of its life doing like
53
00:05:08,808 --> 00:05:10,366
what you see it's doing right here.
54
00:05:10,510 --> 00:05:13,343
It's huffing and puffing
as the magma and the
55
00:05:13,479 --> 00:05:16,346
hydrothermal systems beneath
the ground rise and fall.
56
00:05:16,482 --> 00:05:20,782
For reasons that we actually
don't fully yet understand.
57
00:05:20,920 --> 00:05:22,751
So this uplift
that you have mentioned,
58
00:05:22,889 --> 00:05:26,916
Maggie, is very simply just a part
of everyday life here at Yellowstone.
59
00:05:27,160 --> 00:05:30,687
So we are definitely not looking
at an imminent Super-eruption?
60
00:05:30,897 --> 00:05:34,025
Let me say this,
the chances of a so-called
61
00:05:34,167 --> 00:05:40,731
Super-eruption are on the order of
something like one in 600,000.
62
00:05:40,873 --> 00:05:43,967
In fact it's more than twice
as likely that an airplane
63
00:05:44,110 --> 00:05:46,601
will crash into your back yard.
So.
64
00:05:46,979 --> 00:05:49,846
Haven't we just seen extra
ground uplift at Norris?
65
00:05:50,016 --> 00:05:51,643
Yes we have as a matter of fact,
66
00:05:51,784 --> 00:05:55,311
but that may well be hydrothermal,
you know?
67
00:05:55,455 --> 00:05:57,855
A build up of water.
68
00:05:58,825 --> 00:05:59,849
I' ll tell you what Miss Chin,
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00:05:59,992 --> 00:06:01,789
you give me ten bucks right now and
70
00:06:01,928 --> 00:06:05,762
I will offer you odds of
600,000 to one.
71
00:06:05,898 --> 00:06:09,356
So if this thing does go up
you'd make a killing.
72
00:06:10,536 --> 00:06:11,195
OK.
73
00:06:17,910 --> 00:06:21,676
Listen, I need the co-ordinates
of the Taiwan quake.
74
00:06:21,814 --> 00:06:28,549
Yes, Kao-Hsiung region,
hey. 57 yup, 33. Ok.
75
00:06:32,158 --> 00:06:34,718
This thing takes up
far too much space you know?
76
00:06:51,511 --> 00:06:53,445
Hey, thanks Matt.
77
00:06:57,717 --> 00:06:59,241
Guess what this is?
78
00:07:00,019 --> 00:07:00,815
You tell me.
79
00:07:01,754 --> 00:07:02,345
Pumice.
80
00:07:02,655 --> 00:07:06,989
It comes from deep inside a volcano
that's so hot the rocks all melt.
81
00:07:07,260 --> 00:07:13,756
But when the volcano blows up,
pshew it gets blown high into the sky.
82
00:07:16,969 --> 00:07:21,406
And guess what? It floats.
83
00:07:21,541 --> 00:07:22,235
Oh it does.
84
00:07:22,375 --> 00:07:22,807
In my coffee
85
00:07:22,942 --> 00:07:26,105
How neat is that?
A rock that floats.
86
00:07:30,616 --> 00:07:32,584
Hey OK pal, that's enough.
87
00:07:37,824 --> 00:07:41,260
Hey I found out about flights.
They said it's fine at seven months.
88
00:07:41,394 --> 00:07:42,361
Oh come on Fi.
89
00:07:42,495 --> 00:07:44,463
Honey we just flew to
Yellowstone and back.
90
00:07:44,597 --> 00:07:46,656
Yes I know but A you were with me
91
00:07:46,799 --> 00:07:49,495
and B you weren't in the air
for like 1 1 hours.
92
00:07:49,635 --> 00:07:52,433
Then I don't get to see my mum
this side of Christmas do l?
93
00:08:10,423 --> 00:08:11,355
What is it?
94
00:08:18,998 --> 00:08:21,228
Shit. We got a quake.
95
00:08:22,034 --> 00:08:22,898
What?
96
00:08:23,035 --> 00:08:24,297
I' ll call you,
l' ll see you guys soon.
97
00:08:26,472 --> 00:08:27,530
This is Matt.
98
00:08:27,673 --> 00:08:28,537
What's the damage?
99
00:08:28,674 --> 00:08:32,166
Oh some broken glass, for sure.
Nothing major.
100
00:08:32,378 --> 00:08:33,310
OK what have we got?
101
00:08:33,446 --> 00:08:38,474
Be in touch.
6.9 10km beneath the South Arm Fork.
102
00:08:38,618 --> 00:08:41,212
OK l' m running a simulation.
6.9 at what?
103
00:08:41,354 --> 00:08:43,413
10km beneath the South Arm Fork
104
00:08:43,556 --> 00:08:46,923
That's confirmed 6.9,
standing by for more data.
105
00:08:52,765 --> 00:08:55,791
Get me the web-cam images
of the Fishing Bridge area.
106
00:08:56,469 --> 00:08:59,495
Over say the last five minutes.
107
00:09:02,608 --> 00:09:03,973
Oh go back.
108
00:09:16,522 --> 00:09:18,786
Tell Matt he needs to get
to the other end of the lake.
109
00:09:18,925 --> 00:09:21,052
Where are you going to be?
.... in my office.
110
00:09:41,981 --> 00:09:46,816
Fortunately due to the remoteness
of the area, damage was limited.
111
00:09:47,253 --> 00:09:50,222
But tragically nine bodies have
been recovered so far.
112
00:09:50,856 --> 00:09:51,914
Three of them children.
113
00:09:53,626 --> 00:09:57,289
All from the Fishing Bridge
area of the Park. As well,
114
00:09:57,430 --> 00:10:01,196
43 people have been taken to
hospital with various injuries,
115
00:10:01,334 --> 00:10:02,767
some of them life threatening.
116
00:10:03,069 --> 00:10:04,559
I am going to hand you over
to Mr Rick Lieberman
117
00:10:04,704 --> 00:10:07,673
of the USGS then
we will take some questions. Rick.
118
00:10:08,374 --> 00:10:11,070
The earthquake,
a 6.9 on the Richter Scale,
119
00:10:11,210 --> 00:10:13,508
occurred at 12.13 local time,
120
00:10:13,646 --> 00:10:16,877
centred at a depth
of 10km beneath Mount Sheridan
121
00:10:17,016 --> 00:10:18,779
at the southern end
of Lake Yellowstone.
122
00:10:18,918 --> 00:10:21,682
The earthquake triggered
a landslide off the
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00:10:21,821 --> 00:10:23,755
South Arm Fork
which in turn caused a tsunami
124
00:10:23,889 --> 00:10:27,655
wave to hit the northern shore
here a few minutes later.
125
00:10:27,793 --> 00:10:30,261
All indicators suggest
that this quake was not
126
00:10:30,396 --> 00:10:35,129
volcanic,
but was tectonic in its nature,
127
00:10:35,267 --> 00:10:36,996
caused by a grinding
together of the
128
00:10:37,136 --> 00:10:39,798
earth's plates along
a known fault line.
129
00:10:39,939 --> 00:10:42,533
The pattern of after shocks
of decreasing magnitude
130
00:10:42,675 --> 00:10:45,508
is consistent with this type
of seismic activity.
131
00:10:45,745 --> 00:10:46,302
Any questions?
132
00:10:46,445 --> 00:10:48,310
Is it true
Old Faithful has stopped?
133
00:10:48,447 --> 00:10:53,180
Yes that is true, however a ground
movement can both block
134
00:10:53,319 --> 00:10:55,719
and unblock hydrothermal features.
135
00:10:55,921 --> 00:10:58,321
Has there been any effect
on the uplift at Norris?
136
00:10:58,457 --> 00:11:01,221
No, not that we have seen at all, no.
137
00:11:01,360 --> 00:11:03,419
Are you still sure that there is
not going to be an eruption,
138
00:11:03,562 --> 00:11:04,392
Mr Lieberman?
139
00:11:04,530 --> 00:11:06,191
As I have said Miss Chin,
140
00:11:06,332 --> 00:11:09,392
this earthquake was
not caused by volcanic activity.
141
00:11:09,535 --> 00:11:11,628
As far as we know.
142
00:11:12,304 --> 00:11:16,035
We are increasing our alert
status to Yellow,
143
00:11:16,175 --> 00:11:19,338
which as you know,
does mean 'watch'.
144
00:11:19,478 --> 00:11:21,412
Does that mean you are not ruling
out an eruption?
145
00:11:21,547 --> 00:11:25,039
Look, Miss Chin,
Yellowstone has sometimes as many
146
00:11:25,184 --> 00:11:29,951
as 3000 earthquakes every year,
none of them followed by eruptions.
147
00:11:30,089 --> 00:11:34,583
Everything points to this being
a one-off tragic accident.
148
00:11:36,095 --> 00:11:36,789
The truth?
149
00:11:38,364 --> 00:11:42,425
We had the Hebgen Lake earthquake
in 1 959...
150
00:11:42,568 --> 00:11:46,129
...couple of miles from Yellowstone.
7.5 on the Richter Scale.
151
00:11:46,405 --> 00:11:48,532
Massive landslide, 29 dead.
152
00:11:49,475 --> 00:11:51,875
And it didn't indicate a damn thing.
153
00:11:52,378 --> 00:11:56,678
Again in 1975.
96, it didn't either..
154
00:11:57,783 --> 00:12:01,241
...I mean hell,
I'm a politician not a scientist,
155
00:12:01,387 --> 00:12:03,685
the USGS guys tell me
it's another Hebgen Lake,
156
00:12:03,823 --> 00:12:04,881
I have got to take their word for it.
157
00:12:07,059 --> 00:12:11,996
You know?
You go on the available facts.
158
00:12:13,899 --> 00:12:18,734
Problem was that with a place
the size of Yellowstone,
159
00:12:18,871 --> 00:12:24,503
well we didn't have
all the available facts.
160
00:12:26,912 --> 00:12:28,243
Richard Lieberman, YVO.
161
00:12:28,380 --> 00:12:34,114
Hey, it's me.
You had better take a look at KCVC News.
162
00:12:34,253 --> 00:12:36,687
I will do that, thank you,
l' ll call you back.
163
00:12:36,822 --> 00:12:37,584
Bye.
164
00:12:38,858 --> 00:12:40,519
Well Maggie
I think that we ought to make
165
00:12:40,659 --> 00:12:41,591
a clear distinction between a
166
00:12:41,727 --> 00:12:44,355
regular volcanic eruption
and a Super-eruption.
167
00:12:44,497 --> 00:12:48,695
Mount St Helens was the most violent
eruption in American history.
168
00:12:48,834 --> 00:12:50,358
Killed 57 people and it erupted
169
00:12:50,503 --> 00:12:54,269
about 1 cubic kilometer
of volcanic ash and rock.
170
00:12:54,406 --> 00:12:55,771
Watching the great man huh?
171
00:12:55,908 --> 00:12:56,499
Yes.
172
00:12:56,642 --> 00:13:00,874
Now let's say this cube
here represented the amount
173
00:13:01,013 --> 00:13:04,244
of volcanic material ejected
by Mount St Helens.
174
00:13:04,383 --> 00:13:07,181
Now in volcanic terms it's a tiddler.
Krakatoa...
175
00:13:07,319 --> 00:13:08,877
Tiddler.
176
00:13:09,355 --> 00:13:11,687
The lndonesian volcano that erupted
177
00:13:11,824 --> 00:13:14,816
in 1883 was 17 times larger
than Mount St Helens,
178
00:13:14,960 --> 00:13:19,556
killed 36,000 people and it's
represented by this cube here.
179
00:13:19,698 --> 00:13:22,064
Finally we have this.
180
00:13:23,536 --> 00:13:27,802
This is 2,500 times the size
of Mount St.
181
00:13:27,940 --> 00:13:30,374
Helens, this is a Super-volcano,
182
00:13:30,509 --> 00:13:34,411
this is currently sitting underneath
the ground at Yellowstone Park
183
00:13:35,181 --> 00:13:39,083
And when was the last time one of
these Super-eruptions happened?
184
00:13:39,218 --> 00:13:42,244
About 74,000 years ago
in a place called
185
00:13:42,388 --> 00:13:45,016
Toba on the other side of the world,
Sumatra.
186
00:13:45,157 --> 00:13:48,183
Now the volcanic eruption there was
so vast it created a volcanic winter,
187
00:13:48,327 --> 00:13:51,194
plunged the world into darkness and all
but wiped out the human race.
188
00:13:51,330 --> 00:13:52,797
It missed one though didn't it?
189
00:13:52,932 --> 00:13:56,834
And Yellowstone has produced eruptions
on this sort of scale before?
190
00:13:56,969 --> 00:14:00,097
Oh yes, three times in the
last 2million years.
191
00:14:00,239 --> 00:14:01,638
And do you think that the activity that
192
00:14:01,774 --> 00:14:03,639
we are seeing
there right now may indicate
193
00:14:03,776 --> 00:14:05,505
that it's about to happen
for a fourth time?
194
00:14:05,644 --> 00:14:08,010
Yes I do believe that these events are cyclical.
195
00:14:08,147 --> 00:14:11,241
Three caldera-forming eruptions
in the last 2.1 million years means
196
00:14:11,383 --> 00:14:14,511
on average one eruption
every 600,000 years.
197
00:14:14,653 --> 00:14:17,679
And we haven't had
an eruption like that at
198
00:14:17,823 --> 00:14:21,759
Yellowstone for 640,000 years.
199
00:14:21,894 --> 00:14:23,691
In other words, we are overdue?
200
00:14:23,829 --> 00:14:24,591
No.
201
00:14:24,730 --> 00:14:26,197
Yes I believe we are overdue.
202
00:14:26,332 --> 00:14:26,798
Oh.
203
00:14:26,932 --> 00:14:27,557
Jeez wept.
204
00:14:27,700 --> 00:14:31,067
The warning signs are there
if you care to read them.
205
00:14:31,203 --> 00:14:32,500
Thank you Dr Wylie.
206
00:14:32,638 --> 00:14:33,332
You' re welcome
207
00:14:33,472 --> 00:14:34,769
Thank you Dr Wylie.
208
00:14:34,907 --> 00:14:35,635
My god.
209
00:14:35,774 --> 00:14:40,268
I know he's your brother in law, Rick,
but the guy' s a total numpty.
210
00:14:40,412 --> 00:14:41,344
It's not a good thing, right?
211
00:14:41,480 --> 00:14:43,038
No that's not good, no.
212
00:14:45,317 --> 00:14:47,080
We were trying to monitor something
213
00:14:47,219 --> 00:14:50,950
so vast that it
was almost incomprehensible.
214
00:14:51,457 --> 00:14:53,755
The Park itself
is over 2million acres
215
00:14:53,893 --> 00:14:57,420
and somewhere
within that was the volcano.
216
00:14:57,563 --> 00:15:01,090
But for the longest time
we couldn't figure out where.
217
00:15:02,234 --> 00:15:06,637
Then in the '80s NASA took some
aerial photographs of the Park.
218
00:15:06,772 --> 00:15:10,765
And these photographs revealed the
volcanic crater for the first time.
219
00:15:11,510 --> 00:15:14,570
It turns out that we'd been
looking on the wrong scale.
220
00:15:14,713 --> 00:15:18,342
This crater measured 85km by 45.
221
00:15:18,550 --> 00:15:21,314
Big enough to hold the
largest city in the world,
222
00:15:21,453 --> 00:15:25,480
Tokyo,
population 18million.
223
00:15:44,977 --> 00:15:47,571
Yes I did see
Mr Wylie on the television.
224
00:15:51,650 --> 00:15:56,212
No, no, approximately
every 600,000 years sir.
225
00:15:56,355 --> 00:15:59,620
I mean with a conservative margin
of error we could be out by 100.
226
00:15:59,758 --> 00:16:02,226
And I am telling you sir,
we are not hiding anything, alright?
227
00:16:02,361 --> 00:16:04,886
Everything we know is out
on our web-site.
228
00:16:08,133 --> 00:16:09,532
How' s it looking Matt?
229
00:16:09,969 --> 00:16:11,459
Oh it's looking good, normal.
230
00:16:12,871 --> 00:16:15,066
Like to make a couple more
passes though.
231
00:16:16,675 --> 00:16:20,668
No sir,
l' m afraid that drilling down to try
232
00:16:20,813 --> 00:16:23,247
to siphon off the magma wouldn't work.
233
00:16:23,582 --> 00:16:28,610
No. In fact it could probably cause
the whole thing to go off.
234
00:16:33,792 --> 00:16:35,419
I don't like that,
can we get down there?
235
00:16:35,661 --> 00:16:38,027
It's all true,
this thing's ready to blow
236
00:16:38,163 --> 00:16:41,428
in a matter of days,
if not hours. And everybody,
237
00:16:41,567 --> 00:16:44,092
absolutely everybody' s going to die.
238
00:16:44,236 --> 00:16:48,866
Horribly. Ha, oh you' re welcome,
your holiness. Ha.
239
00:16:51,377 --> 00:16:51,809
Nice.
240
00:16:53,545 --> 00:16:54,944
CO2 levels are good up here
241
00:16:55,080 --> 00:16:57,605
but ground level CO2
that's killing those trees.
242
00:17:15,367 --> 00:17:16,891
Is there or
is there not a magma chamber
243
00:17:17,036 --> 00:17:18,594
underneath Yellowstone National Park?
244
00:17:18,737 --> 00:17:19,328
Yes Kenneth.
245
00:17:19,471 --> 00:17:21,996
Yes and is this magma chamber
of sufficient size
246
00:17:22,141 --> 00:17:24,234
that if there
was an eruption there it
247
00:17:24,376 --> 00:17:27,743
could potentially be rated
as a Super-eruption?
248
00:17:27,880 --> 00:17:28,744
Yes. Exactly. Could.
249
00:17:28,881 --> 00:17:31,372
Well l' m not saying that there will,
l' m saying that there's a chance.
250
00:17:31,517 --> 00:17:34,680
No what you said on television
was 'overdue'.
251
00:17:34,820 --> 00:17:37,755
You know that's what you said.
'Overdue' you said.
252
00:17:38,524 --> 00:17:39,548
Caught up in the moment I expect.
253
00:17:39,691 --> 00:17:41,716
Well you and a few million
other people I guess.
254
00:17:41,860 --> 00:17:42,918
Hey let's not do this now.
255
00:17:43,062 --> 00:17:44,791
Look sis, I have a legitimate
scientific viewpoint.
256
00:17:44,930 --> 00:17:45,589
He thinks he's...
257
00:17:45,731 --> 00:17:47,892
Look have you ever actually
been to Yellowstone?
258
00:17:48,100 --> 00:17:48,896
It's not necessary.
259
00:17:49,034 --> 00:17:52,128
Your excellent web-site provides
all the data, I just interpret it.
260
00:17:52,271 --> 00:17:54,205
Oh no you misinterpret,
that's what you do.
261
00:17:54,339 --> 00:17:56,432
Can we not do this now?
Please.
262
00:17:56,575 --> 00:17:59,066
Look all l' m saying is you do not
go on television
263
00:17:59,211 --> 00:18:02,339
and create a mass panic over
one potential scenario,
264
00:18:02,481 --> 00:18:03,573
just in order to sell a book.
265
00:18:03,715 --> 00:18:04,807
Oh come on.
266
00:18:05,017 --> 00:18:06,985
You don't go on television
and tell everybody that everything's
267
00:18:07,119 --> 00:18:10,247
going to be just fine when you know damn
well it might not be.
268
00:18:10,389 --> 00:18:10,753
Kenneth.
269
00:18:10,889 --> 00:18:11,412
No but just.
270
00:18:11,557 --> 00:18:14,617
No, both of you, I said not now.
271
00:18:15,828 --> 00:18:19,924
God l' m sick of this.
Do you have nothing else?
272
00:18:21,266 --> 00:18:23,598
You haven't seen your nephew
in over a year.
273
00:18:27,973 --> 00:18:31,966
I' m sorry.
Hello Will. How' s school?
274
00:18:33,512 --> 00:18:34,137
Seamless.
275
00:18:35,581 --> 00:18:36,013
Sorry.
276
00:18:37,316 --> 00:18:40,012
When I first met Rick
he was a geology student,
277
00:18:40,152 --> 00:18:43,781
part of a team studying
Yellowstone Lake.
278
00:18:44,356 --> 00:18:52,263
They discovered this enormous 2000
foot log bulge beneath the Lake.
279
00:18:54,833 --> 00:18:57,233
Everyone got very excited about it,
280
00:18:57,503 --> 00:18:59,698
press got hold of the
story and convinced a lot
281
00:18:59,838 --> 00:19:02,363
of people that
Yellowstone was going to blow.
282
00:19:02,908 --> 00:19:10,508
It created this huge panic
and then nothing happened.
283
00:19:11,917 --> 00:19:14,613
It made Rick very cautious about
what he said in public.
284
00:19:16,555 --> 00:19:20,855
Then when he got the
job as scientist in charge,
285
00:19:20,993 --> 00:19:24,554
people paid even more attention
to what he said.
286
00:19:24,796 --> 00:19:26,354
So, it's a boy right?
287
00:19:26,598 --> 00:19:28,122
Mmm, a little boy dragon.
288
00:19:28,267 --> 00:19:29,131
Huh.
289
00:19:29,468 --> 00:19:31,060
And with a new feature.
290
00:19:33,839 --> 00:19:34,669
Show me.
291
00:19:35,574 --> 00:19:37,838
Some sort of anomaly
above the magma chamber,
292
00:19:37,976 --> 00:19:39,671
just below Firehole Creek Basin.
293
00:19:39,811 --> 00:19:40,743
Oh yes.
294
00:19:41,146 --> 00:19:43,080
Could be water or gas.
295
00:19:43,282 --> 00:19:44,943
Or an intrusion of magma through a
296
00:19:45,083 --> 00:19:47,142
fault line opened up by the quake,
right?
297
00:19:48,387 --> 00:19:50,855
Impossible to tell until
we get a clear image.
298
00:19:50,989 --> 00:19:51,921
...Oh thanks.
299
00:19:52,057 --> 00:19:54,719
We are still processing all the data
from the Kao-Hsiung quake.
300
00:19:54,860 --> 00:19:55,918
Oh god that was days ago.
301
00:19:56,061 --> 00:19:57,119
Yes I know.
302
00:19:57,429 --> 00:19:58,953
Listen Matt's found
a section of dead pine
303
00:19:59,097 --> 00:20:01,657
to the north east of Sour Creek Dome.
304
00:20:01,800 --> 00:20:02,562
You got a visitor.
305
00:20:02,701 --> 00:20:04,999
Hang on,
north east of Sour Creek Dome along
306
00:20:05,137 --> 00:20:07,731
a ring fracture of the caldera rim.
307
00:20:07,940 --> 00:20:08,668
CO2 or heat?
308
00:20:08,807 --> 00:20:10,638
CO2 suffocating the roots.
309
00:20:13,212 --> 00:20:15,476
The magma's only two to three
kilometres deep at that point.
310
00:20:15,614 --> 00:20:17,445
Yes or less if it's rising.
311
00:20:25,490 --> 00:20:26,889
Alright so, who is it?
312
00:20:27,192 --> 00:20:28,887
Wendy something from FEMA.
313
00:20:29,294 --> 00:20:30,522
Wendy Reiss?
314
00:20:30,729 --> 00:20:32,424
The under secretary in charge of the
315
00:20:32,564 --> 00:20:34,498
Federal Emergency
Management Agency is here,
316
00:20:34,633 --> 00:20:38,000
you told her to wait in my office?
You' re fired Dave.
317
00:20:38,403 --> 00:20:39,199
You can't fire me.
318
00:20:39,338 --> 00:20:40,635
Yes you' re lucky that's true.
319
00:20:41,306 --> 00:20:42,330
I' m sorry.
320
00:20:43,208 --> 00:20:44,470
Ms Reiss.
321
00:20:47,212 --> 00:20:50,306
You have caught me off guard.
I' m Richard Lieberman.
322
00:20:50,549 --> 00:20:52,107
Yes Rick,
I recognise you from the television.
323
00:20:52,251 --> 00:20:53,149
Oh.
324
00:20:53,318 --> 00:20:54,114
Please call me Wendy.
325
00:20:54,253 --> 00:20:56,312
Thanks, well, sorry about the mess,
Wendy.
326
00:20:56,455 --> 00:20:57,251
No problem.
327
00:20:57,389 --> 00:20:59,448
It's been a busy couple of days.
Please sit down.
328
00:21:00,425 --> 00:21:02,120
Yes, l' m just going to cut
to the chase Rick.
329
00:21:02,928 --> 00:21:05,954
I want to know if we should
be worried about this.
330
00:21:11,336 --> 00:21:13,964
Er, based on the data
that we' re getting,
331
00:21:14,106 --> 00:21:18,236
yes there are indicators
that there could be an eruption.
332
00:21:18,443 --> 00:21:22,277
Or it could be business
as usual at Yellowstone.
333
00:21:24,316 --> 00:21:27,217
And if there is an eruption
then there is a good possibility
334
00:21:27,352 --> 00:21:30,321
that it's going
to be a moderate one.
335
00:21:30,455 --> 00:21:31,183
This isn't enough Rick.
336
00:21:31,323 --> 00:21:32,984
If there's even the slightest chance
of this happening,
337
00:21:33,125 --> 00:21:34,319
I want to know what that means.
338
00:21:34,459 --> 00:21:35,721
I want to know
what we can do about it.
339
00:21:35,861 --> 00:21:38,853
How much do you know
about Super-eruptions?
340
00:21:40,132 --> 00:21:42,999
Super in front of eruption
I don't imagine means better?
341
00:21:45,370 --> 00:21:46,359
Can I show you something?
342
00:21:46,538 --> 00:21:47,402
Please.
343
00:21:48,307 --> 00:21:51,538
See the magma chamber
that sits underneath Yellowstone,
344
00:21:51,777 --> 00:21:54,041
well here, we think it's roughly
345
00:21:54,179 --> 00:21:56,807
the same dimensions as
the caldera rim itself.
346
00:21:56,948 --> 00:22:02,909
We think it's around 40km wide
by 80km long and around 8km deep.
347
00:22:03,121 --> 00:22:04,053
You think.
348
00:22:04,456 --> 00:22:07,220
Yes, it's a very difficult thing
to get a clear picture of.
349
00:22:07,826 --> 00:22:09,384
In fact the only way to even
attempt to see
350
00:22:09,528 --> 00:22:14,192
a magma chamber is ironically enough
by relying on earthquakes.
351
00:22:15,267 --> 00:22:16,291
Have a seat please.
352
00:22:16,435 --> 00:22:16,867
Thank you.
353
00:22:17,002 --> 00:22:19,027
It's called seismic tomography.
354
00:22:19,237 --> 00:22:21,171
What we do is we plant an array
of seismographs throughout
355
00:22:21,306 --> 00:22:26,243
the Park and then
when an earthquake occurs the seismic
356
00:22:26,378 --> 00:22:30,041
shockwaves from these events
travel through the earth.
357
00:22:30,182 --> 00:22:32,673
Now these waves move slightly slower
358
00:22:32,818 --> 00:22:35,286
through the molten rock
than through the solid rock,
359
00:22:35,620 --> 00:22:38,748
so we can use these slight differences
in arrival time here at
360
00:22:38,890 --> 00:22:42,018
the seismometers to begin
to calculate and plot
361
00:22:42,160 --> 00:22:45,357
the rough dimensions of the chamber.
It's kind of like sonar.
362
00:22:46,131 --> 00:22:48,031
And that tells you how much
magma is down there?
363
00:22:48,633 --> 00:22:50,624
Well what we are trying
to determine essentially
364
00:22:50,769 --> 00:22:52,634
is the nature of this magma.
365
00:22:52,771 --> 00:22:54,762
Is it eruptible magma?
366
00:22:54,906 --> 00:22:57,875
Is it too viscous,
is it too sticky to go anywhere?
367
00:22:58,009 --> 00:23:01,536
Or is it molten enough, is it liquid
enough that it can escape?
368
00:23:02,447 --> 00:23:04,915
You know we also want to know how
it's situated in the chamber,
369
00:23:05,050 --> 00:23:08,213
is it kind of spread
out in individual pods
370
00:23:08,353 --> 00:23:10,321
or pockets throughout the chamber?
371
00:23:10,455 --> 00:23:15,552
Or and this is what we don't want,
is it accumulated in one place?
372
00:23:15,927 --> 00:23:20,296
Sufficient enough that it could trigger
a Super-eruption?
373
00:23:21,533 --> 00:23:23,262
OK let's talk worst case scenario.
374
00:23:23,602 --> 00:23:26,730
OK. Well we have run
some projections based
375
00:23:26,872 --> 00:23:30,968
on the first Super-eruption at
Yellowstone at 2.1 million years ago.
376
00:23:31,109 --> 00:23:34,840
Essentially because this is the one
we have the most data available on.
377
00:23:35,113 --> 00:23:38,776
Now if the next one were to behave
in a similar way,
378
00:23:39,351 --> 00:23:41,410
then we would be looking
at between two
379
00:23:41,553 --> 00:23:44,784
and 3,000 cubic kilometres of rock,
380
00:23:45,056 --> 00:23:49,823
gas and ash erupting across
the United States
381
00:23:49,961 --> 00:23:52,725
in a pattern that looks like this.
382
00:23:53,198 --> 00:23:58,261
Zone 1 represents 1 00km radius
around Yellowstone.
383
00:23:58,470 --> 00:24:00,870
Basically everything
in this area would
384
00:24:01,006 --> 00:24:04,567
be completely wiped out
by pyroclastic flows.
385
00:24:05,177 --> 00:24:08,442
That's the rock and ash that spills
from the side of an erupted column?
386
00:24:10,882 --> 00:24:13,146
That is a pyroclastic flow.
387
00:24:13,618 --> 00:24:18,214
These surges can travel
up to 700km an hour.
388
00:24:18,990 --> 00:24:22,391
So yes these journalists
were very, very lucky.
389
00:24:23,762 --> 00:24:27,254
Yes this woman was caught at
the edge of a pyroclastic flow,
390
00:24:27,399 --> 00:24:31,358
you see these surges can reach up
to 800 degrees Celsius.
391
00:24:33,104 --> 00:24:35,334
Anyway yes that's what happens
to anyone that's
392
00:24:35,474 --> 00:24:39,069
within the first 1 00km radius
of a volcano....
393
00:24:40,011 --> 00:24:43,469
...Now out here in Zones 2 and 3,
394
00:24:44,049 --> 00:24:45,914
virtually everyone
and everything in these two areas
395
00:24:46,051 --> 00:24:49,145
will be trapped by extremely
heavy ash fall.
396
00:24:49,654 --> 00:24:51,986
That's roughly 3million people.
397
00:24:54,059 --> 00:24:55,151
Yes.
398
00:24:55,627 --> 00:25:00,997
And here out in Zone 4 we' re talking
about ash fall of around 15cm.
399
00:25:01,333 --> 00:25:05,599
15cm that doesn't sound like a lot
but you add rain to 15cm
400
00:25:05,737 --> 00:25:10,071
of volcanic ash and that is
certainly enough to collapse a roof.
401
00:25:11,042 --> 00:25:18,107
And then you know in Zone 5 it
gets down to around 5cm of ash fall.
402
00:25:18,650 --> 00:25:21,881
This is a huge area,
covering most of the grasslands.
403
00:25:22,220 --> 00:25:24,154
Any animals that happen
to be grazing there.
404
00:25:24,289 --> 00:25:26,086
And that's also
the grain belt of course,
405
00:25:26,224 --> 00:25:28,488
so that's all the food gone.
406
00:25:30,328 --> 00:25:34,355
And then Zone 6 we tail down
to around 1cm of ash,
407
00:25:34,499 --> 00:25:37,730
extending out
to the Eastern Seaboard.
408
00:25:37,903 --> 00:25:42,602
A centimetre. I read it takes just
one millimetre to close an airport.
409
00:25:42,807 --> 00:25:44,934
Yes. See the thing that
people don't understand
410
00:25:45,076 --> 00:25:47,374
about volcanic ash is it's
not like ash from your
411
00:25:47,512 --> 00:25:53,542
backyard barbeque, it's rock.
It's abrasive,
412
00:25:53,685 --> 00:25:55,778
it's pervasive,
it's destructive,
413
00:25:55,921 --> 00:25:58,583
it shorts out electrical equipment,
it clogs machinery.
414
00:25:58,723 --> 00:25:59,587
You name it.
415
00:25:59,724 --> 00:26:03,626
It's also extremely tiny,
it's 100 microns across,
416
00:26:03,762 --> 00:26:07,220
it's so tiny you can inhale it
and when you do it combines
417
00:26:07,365 --> 00:26:09,629
with the moisture
in your lungs and forms
418
00:26:09,768 --> 00:26:11,963
a cement-like mixture.
419
00:26:12,237 --> 00:26:17,300
You essentially drown in
what's basically liquid concrete.
420
00:26:19,110 --> 00:26:25,413
Anway that is the worst case scenario.
So you tell me.
421
00:26:25,550 --> 00:26:28,018
I mean if an event like
this were to happen,
422
00:26:28,353 --> 00:26:30,048
what is FEMA going to do?
423
00:26:31,957 --> 00:26:33,185
Is it going to happen?
424
00:26:33,325 --> 00:26:36,192
Is it going to happen?
Yes. It is going to happen.
425
00:26:36,328 --> 00:26:38,228
Is it going to happen
in our lifetime?
426
00:26:40,332 --> 00:26:41,526
I don't know.
427
00:26:43,101 --> 00:26:46,901
And that is the most honest answer
that anybody can give you, Wendy.
428
00:26:47,038 --> 00:26:48,403
I don't know.
429
00:28:16,695 --> 00:28:17,354
I' ll beep Rick
430
00:28:17,495 --> 00:28:20,692
Well contact the other stations,
re-establish an exact location.
431
00:28:36,614 --> 00:28:37,945
Mr Lieberman.
432
00:28:38,083 --> 00:28:39,448
Yes hang on, hang on.
433
00:28:39,584 --> 00:28:40,448
Mr Lieberman.
434
00:28:40,585 --> 00:28:40,914
Yes.
435
00:28:41,052 --> 00:28:42,917
Are you still denying the
possibility of a Super-eruption?
436
00:28:43,054 --> 00:28:45,454
Norris,
as I've said to you before Miss Chin,
437
00:28:45,590 --> 00:28:47,888
Norris was a hydrothermal event
and by no means
438
00:28:48,026 --> 00:28:51,052
a sure fire indicator
of volcanic activity.
439
00:28:51,196 --> 00:28:53,892
And certainly not on the scale
that you are referring to.
440
00:28:54,032 --> 00:28:55,897
Nevertheless we have issued
a Code Red warning
441
00:28:56,034 --> 00:28:58,002
because we don't take
these things lightly.
442
00:28:58,136 --> 00:28:59,626
Yes thank you.
443
00:29:00,371 --> 00:29:01,269
Daddy.
444
00:29:01,639 --> 00:29:04,574
Yes. He's getting famous.
445
00:29:04,709 --> 00:29:07,200
But you can't rule out
a Super-eruption can you?
446
00:29:08,213 --> 00:29:10,204
He looks hot.
447
00:29:10,782 --> 00:29:12,340
It's twice as likely
as an asteroid strike,
448
00:29:12,484 --> 00:29:13,542
according to some experts.
449
00:29:13,685 --> 00:29:16,017
And half as unlikely
as being struck by lightening
450
00:29:16,154 --> 00:29:18,452
Miss Chin and how many
of us lose sleep over that?
451
00:29:18,590 --> 00:29:19,682
That's all the time we have,
thank you.
452
00:29:19,824 --> 00:29:21,257
Thank you very much.
453
00:29:22,927 --> 00:29:24,224
Too much politics
and not enough science.
454
00:29:24,362 --> 00:29:26,159
OK are we ready to run
this simulation?
455
00:29:26,297 --> 00:29:27,321
Let's do it.
456
00:29:27,465 --> 00:29:29,262
Alright,
so what I'd like to do is run through
457
00:29:29,400 --> 00:29:30,924
a couple of potential
scenarios here.
458
00:29:31,069 --> 00:29:34,630
Hey Rick we've got another quake
just over a mile south of Norris.
459
00:29:34,773 --> 00:29:35,705
OK how big?
460
00:29:35,840 --> 00:29:36,670
1.9.
461
00:29:36,808 --> 00:29:37,968
1.9 OK.
462
00:29:38,576 --> 00:29:41,409
Now this anomaly that
we have discovered near Norris,
463
00:29:41,546 --> 00:29:44,913
now this could be water and gas
as we know, or worst case
464
00:29:45,049 --> 00:29:48,348
scenario, it could be
a new pod of eruptible magma.
465
00:29:48,820 --> 00:29:50,811
So I want to concentrate
our simulations around
466
00:29:50,955 --> 00:29:54,823
this area and see
what the potential damage could be.
467
00:29:54,959 --> 00:29:55,755
OK?
468
00:29:55,894 --> 00:29:58,192
So option number one,
let's say that
469
00:29:58,329 --> 00:30:02,959
we've got one cubic kilometer
of eruptible magma.
470
00:30:03,868 --> 00:30:04,459
OK?
471
00:30:04,602 --> 00:30:06,433
And drop it.
472
00:30:08,573 --> 00:30:09,733
Run it.
473
00:30:16,514 --> 00:30:17,503
No eruption.
474
00:30:17,749 --> 00:30:19,512
Based on option one, it seems not.
475
00:30:19,651 --> 00:30:22,085
Alright then let's keep all
the other parameters the same,
476
00:30:22,220 --> 00:30:26,554
but increase it by five.
So we' ll make it five cubic kilometres.
477
00:30:33,865 --> 00:30:34,957
OK how big is this?
478
00:30:35,333 --> 00:30:36,925
Moderate, VEl-2.
479
00:30:37,202 --> 00:30:38,999
VEl-2. And duration?
480
00:30:39,270 --> 00:30:40,760
Over approximately three days.
481
00:30:41,906 --> 00:30:44,306
With that amount of magma
it could have been a lot bigger.
482
00:30:44,442 --> 00:30:46,876
OK let's increase
it by another factor of five.
483
00:30:47,011 --> 00:30:50,105
And make it 25 cubic kilometres.
484
00:30:50,615 --> 00:30:51,513
OK.
485
00:30:51,950 --> 00:30:52,939
Whenever you are ready.
486
00:30:57,555 --> 00:31:00,115
VEl-5. Mount St Helens size.
487
00:31:01,059 --> 00:31:08,830
Right. So 1 0 times more magma,
1 000 times more eruption.
488
00:31:10,068 --> 00:31:11,057
Potentially.
489
00:31:11,202 --> 00:31:12,965
OK so let's increase it
by another factor
490
00:31:13,104 --> 00:31:18,269
of five and make it
1 25 cubic kilometres.
491
00:31:18,710 --> 00:31:19,642
And this time let's
just run it this time
492
00:31:19,777 --> 00:31:21,369
just from the hydrothermal blast.
493
00:31:21,512 --> 00:31:22,479
Sure.
494
00:31:29,387 --> 00:31:30,649
VEl-5 again.
495
00:31:31,389 --> 00:31:35,416
OK.
VEl-5. again.
496
00:31:51,209 --> 00:31:55,441
Oh what happened?
497
00:31:56,114 --> 00:31:57,308
Computer glitch?
498
00:31:58,249 --> 00:32:03,414
OK tell me what we just saw.
Alright l' ll say it.
499
00:32:04,656 --> 00:32:06,055
If we have a reservoir of melt down
500
00:32:06,190 --> 00:32:11,150
there that's larger than
1 25 cubic kilometres
501
00:32:12,030 --> 00:32:13,520
then this model
is telling us that even
502
00:32:13,665 --> 00:32:16,930
a moderate eruption near
Norris could destabilise the rest
503
00:32:17,068 --> 00:32:19,866
of the chamber and trigger a...
504
00:32:21,372 --> 00:32:25,138
VEl-8 Super-eruption.
505
00:32:28,947 --> 00:32:32,383
That's great, great,
and if frogs
506
00:32:32,517 --> 00:32:34,644
had wings then they wouldn't bump
507
00:32:34,786 --> 00:32:37,152
their little green arses
hopping around then.
508
00:32:37,689 --> 00:32:40,249
Ha ha. If,
if there was a pocket of melt over
509
00:32:40,391 --> 00:32:45,488
125 cubic kilometres in a
possible eruption at Norris
510
00:32:45,630 --> 00:32:48,258
may trigger further
eruptions which maybe,
511
00:32:48,399 --> 00:32:51,857
just possibly could register
as VEl-8.
512
00:32:52,070 --> 00:32:53,594
Brilliant.
Great.
513
00:32:54,072 --> 00:32:59,271
Jesus you' re letting yourself
be spooked by a video game. Oh...
514
00:33:31,909 --> 00:33:32,841
Rick?
515
00:33:33,411 --> 00:33:34,173
Yes.
516
00:33:34,412 --> 00:33:36,880
Hey it's Nancy.
You'd better get up here right away.
517
00:33:40,084 --> 00:33:42,985
OK so where's
this uplift concentrated?
518
00:33:43,688 --> 00:33:45,588
Here, Firehole River Basin.
519
00:33:45,957 --> 00:33:47,049
It's miles from Norris.
520
00:33:47,191 --> 00:33:51,184
Hang on, the question is, is this
rising magma or is this ground water?
521
00:33:51,963 --> 00:33:53,863
I could make a plausible case
for either.
522
00:33:54,465 --> 00:33:55,397
Yes I know you could.
523
00:33:55,666 --> 00:33:58,191
Another 2.2 to the
north east of Norris.
524
00:33:58,770 --> 00:34:02,536
That's the third today,
so we've got another swarm coming?
525
00:34:04,242 --> 00:34:06,210
I need the SRl data
for the entire Park.
526
00:34:06,544 --> 00:34:09,069
Can we get more instrumentation down
at Firehole River Basin?
527
00:34:09,313 --> 00:34:11,440
If we steal them from elsewhere.
528
00:34:13,718 --> 00:34:14,912
Well, steal them.
529
00:34:16,187 --> 00:34:18,451
The ground uplift,
earthquake swarms,
530
00:34:18,623 --> 00:34:22,354
rising levels of carbon dioxide
and the hydrothermal event.
531
00:34:23,895 --> 00:34:26,921
All of these things can be indicators
of volcanic activity.
532
00:34:27,465 --> 00:34:29,831
Equally they can mean nothing.
533
00:34:31,436 --> 00:34:35,167
We closed the Park to be safe,
but that didn't stop
534
00:34:35,339 --> 00:34:38,399
the hoards of people coming to check
it out for themselves.
535
00:34:40,611 --> 00:34:43,273
Hey Rick, Rick.
536
00:34:43,514 --> 00:34:43,912
Hang on.
537
00:34:44,048 --> 00:34:44,810
Hey.
538
00:34:46,384 --> 00:34:47,282
Miss Chin.
539
00:34:47,852 --> 00:34:48,648
Can we come in?
540
00:34:51,022 --> 00:34:54,253
Look, I've got to cover
this one way or another.
541
00:34:54,992 --> 00:34:55,924
It's my job.
542
00:34:56,694 --> 00:34:58,753
OK. Do you want to cover this?
543
00:35:00,131 --> 00:35:02,326
Alright then you need to understand
what it is that you are covering.
544
00:35:02,467 --> 00:35:05,129
Yes it's me, get me Matt.
Come on in, Maggie.
545
00:35:05,269 --> 00:35:05,701
Guys.
546
00:35:05,837 --> 00:35:09,796
I' m sorry guys, not the crew, OK?
Come on through.
547
00:35:10,508 --> 00:35:12,999
Just not the crew. It's me, right,
548
00:35:13,144 --> 00:35:15,635
we are going to give
Maggie Chin the tour.
549
00:35:32,797 --> 00:35:34,128
Take a look up there.
550
00:35:42,907 --> 00:35:46,206
You are looking at the north
western rim of the giant caldera.
551
00:35:47,712 --> 00:35:51,580
Where the ground fell over 1000 feet
after the last Super-eruption.
552
00:35:55,553 --> 00:35:57,214
So we are in the volcano?
553
00:35:57,421 --> 00:35:58,581
Sure are.
554
00:36:02,326 --> 00:36:05,090
I thought we'd take a little drive
to the other side.
555
00:36:24,248 --> 00:36:25,306
So, what can you see?
556
00:36:26,651 --> 00:36:27,743
Yellowstone Lake.
557
00:36:28,219 --> 00:36:30,915
OK. Now look out across
the lake to that range
558
00:36:31,055 --> 00:36:32,750
of mountains on the far side.
559
00:36:33,558 --> 00:36:34,183
The Absarokas?
560
00:36:34,425 --> 00:36:37,417
That's right. How far would you say
those mountains are from here?
561
00:36:37,828 --> 00:36:41,855
How far?
1 0 miles?
562
00:36:41,999 --> 00:36:45,332
Roughly 1 5.
Now those mountains are
563
00:36:45,469 --> 00:36:48,563
where you will find the eastern edge
of the giant caldera.
564
00:36:48,706 --> 00:36:52,437
The western edge is about another
1 5 miles behind us.
565
00:36:52,777 --> 00:36:56,269
And north to south it's even further,
it's over 50 miles.
566
00:36:56,514 --> 00:36:59,176
So that's about 45 minutes
of driving and
567
00:36:59,317 --> 00:37:01,842
we are still only in the centre
of the volcano crater.
568
00:37:02,286 --> 00:37:03,218
What's your point, Matt?
569
00:37:03,354 --> 00:37:07,586
My point is,
if this thing erupts you' ll die.
570
00:37:08,226 --> 00:37:10,820
If you think you are going to
win some award or get promoted
571
00:37:10,962 --> 00:37:13,430
because you knew about this first,
you won't.
572
00:37:13,564 --> 00:37:16,328
There won't be anyone around to
give you your pat on the back.
573
00:37:21,806 --> 00:37:24,468
Maam, you need to get
some perspective.
574
00:37:45,830 --> 00:37:47,127
Where is it?
575
00:37:48,766 --> 00:37:49,323
Norris.
576
00:37:51,202 --> 00:37:53,067
Do you want to suggest
a change of alert?
577
00:37:53,204 --> 00:37:56,696
Yes you know another
Red is going to create more panic.
578
00:37:56,841 --> 00:37:57,933
This is as sure as we get.
579
00:37:58,075 --> 00:37:58,268
I know.
580
00:37:58,409 --> 00:37:59,501
This is imminent.
581
00:37:59,644 --> 00:38:00,406
I know.
582
00:38:00,544 --> 00:38:02,478
You want me to plug
the data into VlRGlL?
583
00:38:02,613 --> 00:38:03,204
And find out what?
584
00:38:03,347 --> 00:38:03,813
Hang on, hang on please.
585
00:38:03,948 --> 00:38:04,972
No really, and find out what?
586
00:38:05,116 --> 00:38:07,482
Please.
Let's do that and just see if...
587
00:38:07,618 --> 00:38:08,209
Jesus Rick.
588
00:38:08,352 --> 00:38:11,287
Look there's going to be an eruption,
OK we know that.
589
00:38:11,422 --> 00:38:13,481
I don't need you to tell me
what harmonic tremor means.
590
00:38:13,624 --> 00:38:17,560
So now you need to advise an upgrade
to the alert status
591
00:38:17,695 --> 00:38:19,185
and you need to let people know.
592
00:38:19,330 --> 00:38:21,924
OK so if I upgrade to a Red
everyone's going to think that
593
00:38:22,066 --> 00:38:24,398
we've got a Super-eruption
on our hands.
594
00:38:24,535 --> 00:38:27,868
I am not going to be held responsible
for some kind of mass panic here.
595
00:38:28,005 --> 00:38:29,939
OK it is our responsibility.
596
00:38:30,074 --> 00:38:30,369
Jock.
597
00:38:30,508 --> 00:38:31,270
No shut up Dave.
598
00:38:31,409 --> 00:38:33,639
It's our job,
it's our duty to let people know,
599
00:38:33,778 --> 00:38:34,938
to tell them what we know.
600
00:38:35,079 --> 00:38:36,341
So get your arse off the fence.
601
00:38:36,480 --> 00:38:38,675
And you tell me
what going on TV and
602
00:38:38,816 --> 00:38:41,410
telling Joe Six-Pack that the end
of the world is nigh.
603
00:38:41,552 --> 00:38:43,713
You tell me how that's going
to help this situation?
604
00:38:43,854 --> 00:38:45,287
What do you think
our purpose is here?
605
00:38:45,423 --> 00:38:47,891
I will brief FEMA
and I will brief the State
606
00:38:48,025 --> 00:38:50,323
but just before they evacuate
the whole of America,
607
00:38:50,461 --> 00:38:53,589
they are going to want to know
how big the thing's going to be.
608
00:38:56,867 --> 00:38:59,665
Well at least the ship's got
a bloody captain now.
609
00:39:02,640 --> 00:39:03,299
What is going on?
610
00:39:03,441 --> 00:39:04,635
Nothing is going on,
whatever you say.
611
00:39:04,775 --> 00:39:06,538
Oh come on, what,
no mention of it for weeks and all
612
00:39:06,677 --> 00:39:07,701
of a sudden we' re going to England?
613
00:39:07,845 --> 00:39:08,368
It's not like that.
614
00:39:08,512 --> 00:39:09,604
I' m not supposed to be suspicious?
615
00:39:09,747 --> 00:39:12,011
Look you said that you wanted
to go and see your mum, right?
616
00:39:12,149 --> 00:39:13,616
Oh Jesus Rick,
just be honest with me.
617
00:39:13,751 --> 00:39:14,581
I' m being honest with you.
618
00:39:14,719 --> 00:39:14,912
Are you?
619
00:39:15,052 --> 00:39:15,347
Yes.
620
00:39:15,486 --> 00:39:17,249
If this is going to be a big eruption,
you've got to come with us
621
00:39:17,488 --> 00:39:20,116
Look it's going to be exactly
what I said that it's going to be.
622
00:39:20,257 --> 00:39:22,885
You know, this little girl
may never meet her father
623
00:39:23,027 --> 00:39:24,654
because of the decision
you are making right now
624
00:39:26,130 --> 00:39:30,499
Come on, we all believe that this is
going to be a moderate eruption.
625
00:39:30,634 --> 00:39:31,828
And yes, things are going to go a
626
00:39:31,969 --> 00:39:33,732
Iittle crazy
in this country for a while.
627
00:39:33,871 --> 00:39:36,704
That's because everyone's
nervous right now.
628
00:39:36,874 --> 00:39:37,431
God Rick.
629
00:39:37,575 --> 00:39:41,033
That's why I'd just be happier
if you both were in London,
630
00:39:41,178 --> 00:39:43,373
when all that's going on.
631
00:39:43,514 --> 00:39:47,450
And then when things calm down
then l' ll come.
632
00:39:47,585 --> 00:39:48,313
I' ll see you.
633
00:39:50,621 --> 00:39:52,282
Can we go on the plane now?
634
00:39:52,523 --> 00:39:56,983
Yes you' re going to go on the plane now.
You take care of your mum OK?
635
00:39:57,128 --> 00:39:57,753
OK.
636
00:39:58,062 --> 00:39:58,994
You call me when you get there.
637
00:39:59,130 --> 00:39:59,824
I will.
638
00:40:01,899 --> 00:40:03,457
Get on the plane.
I love you. See ya.
639
00:40:26,023 --> 00:40:28,856
I' m going to refer you to our
San Francisco FEMA office
640
00:40:28,993 --> 00:40:31,018
and I want you to talk
to Lisa Cochrane.
641
00:40:31,162 --> 00:40:35,428
She will be the one to direct
any activity at that point.
642
00:40:35,566 --> 00:40:36,157
OK
643
00:40:39,537 --> 00:40:40,094
One moment.
644
00:40:44,542 --> 00:40:45,907
Bring the centre screen volume up.
645
00:40:46,043 --> 00:40:49,171
A leaked e-mail seen by
KCVZ confirms that the
646
00:40:49,313 --> 00:40:53,909
US Geological Survey expects
an eruption any time soon.
647
00:40:54,051 --> 00:40:56,417
Possibly within hours.
648
00:40:56,554 --> 00:41:01,150
And possibly with devastating
consequences for America and the world.
649
00:41:01,292 --> 00:41:01,621
Oh god.
650
00:41:01,759 --> 00:41:04,023
I' m Maggie Chin with KCVZ News,
651
00:41:04,161 --> 00:41:06,425
reporting to you live from
Yellowstone National Park.
652
00:41:11,035 --> 00:41:13,060
Sir, this is Rick Lieberman.
653
00:41:13,204 --> 00:41:13,602
Hi.
654
00:41:13,737 --> 00:41:15,466
Rick, Joe Foster,
Secretary for Homeland Security.
655
00:41:15,606 --> 00:41:17,540
Michael you know of course.
656
00:41:18,976 --> 00:41:19,567
Hi.
657
00:41:20,411 --> 00:41:22,311
Governor Marshall should be
joining us at any moment.
658
00:41:22,546 --> 00:41:24,013
I didn't expect to see you here.
659
00:41:25,483 --> 00:41:26,313
Hello everybody.
660
00:41:27,218 --> 00:41:29,015
Billy, glad you could join us.
661
00:41:29,286 --> 00:41:32,221
Half my State's about to be vaporised,
I thought I should be, you know?
662
00:41:32,356 --> 00:41:35,450
Everyone please have a seat.
I' ll get straight to the point.
663
00:41:35,693 --> 00:41:38,457
This leak hasn't
just caused chaos here,
664
00:41:38,596 --> 00:41:39,824
but around the world.
665
00:41:40,798 --> 00:41:43,198
Well it certainly didn't
come from USGS.
666
00:41:43,334 --> 00:41:44,301
Nor from FEMA
667
00:41:44,435 --> 00:41:45,959
Yes alright people,
the buck is well passed.
668
00:41:46,103 --> 00:41:48,628
Wherever it came from,
the media have got hold of it
669
00:41:48,772 --> 00:41:51,070
and now have got to address it.
670
00:41:51,208 --> 00:41:55,702
So Rick, what l' m going to ask
you is very simple.
671
00:41:56,747 --> 00:41:59,409
I need you to make
a statement ruling out the
672
00:41:59,550 --> 00:42:01,074
possibility of a Super-eruption.
673
00:42:03,621 --> 00:42:05,452
Ruling it out?
674
00:42:05,589 --> 00:42:07,250
Nothing bigger than Mount St Helens.
675
00:42:08,192 --> 00:42:12,026
People would accept that and it's
what the evidence suggests.
676
00:42:12,363 --> 00:42:13,625
I can't.
677
00:42:14,331 --> 00:42:15,263
I beg your pardon?
678
00:42:15,399 --> 00:42:17,560
I' m sorry I can't,
I can't say that.
679
00:42:17,935 --> 00:42:18,731
Why the hell not?
680
00:42:19,670 --> 00:42:22,400
Because our computer
model now suggests
681
00:42:22,540 --> 00:42:24,974
that even a small eruption
could destabilise
682
00:42:25,109 --> 00:42:27,600
the magma chamber and trigger
a Super-eruption.
683
00:42:32,116 --> 00:42:35,608
Rick I understand that but you are
talking a remote possibility.
684
00:42:35,753 --> 00:42:36,777
No l' m talking about...
685
00:42:36,921 --> 00:42:39,116
What I am talking
about are hard facts.
686
00:42:39,256 --> 00:42:41,622
Fact one,
there are food riots.
687
00:42:42,259 --> 00:42:44,955
People are fighting each other
to leave the country.
688
00:42:45,095 --> 00:42:48,326
Fact two, the dollar is on its knees,
Wall Street has crashed.
689
00:42:48,599 --> 00:42:50,499
Your country is going down
the toilet
690
00:42:50,634 --> 00:42:52,659
and you are telling me
you are not prepared to make
691
00:42:52,803 --> 00:42:53,963
a statement to help stop that?
692
00:42:54,305 --> 00:42:55,738
Please with all due respect sir...
693
00:42:55,873 --> 00:42:56,430
Governor Marshall?
694
00:42:56,574 --> 00:43:02,570
Rick, every highway,
every lnterstate in Montana,
695
00:43:02,713 --> 00:43:04,874
Wyoming, Utah, Nebraska,
the Dakotas,
696
00:43:05,015 --> 00:43:10,783
Iowa and Nevada's turning into a
god-damn parking lot.
697
00:43:10,921 --> 00:43:12,912
Now everybody' s trying to get
the hell away from Yellowstone,
698
00:43:13,057 --> 00:43:14,581
nothing's even happened yet.
699
00:43:15,392 --> 00:43:15,858
Yet.
700
00:43:18,228 --> 00:43:21,686
The point is Rick,
even if the worst does happen,
701
00:43:21,832 --> 00:43:24,232
we are clogging up the roads,
screwing up the airlines,
702
00:43:24,368 --> 00:43:26,529
it's not going to do
any of us any good.
703
00:43:26,670 --> 00:43:28,035
Yes I appreciate that,
Wendy, I do.
704
00:43:28,172 --> 00:43:30,197
But until I have
something definitive,
705
00:43:30,341 --> 00:43:32,104
please don't make me make
statements that...
706
00:43:32,242 --> 00:43:34,802
Rick, you know as
well as I do that harmonic
707
00:43:34,945 --> 00:43:37,778
tremor can stop as well as start.
708
00:43:37,915 --> 00:43:38,313
Mike.
709
00:43:38,449 --> 00:43:39,882
It is your responsibility.
710
00:43:40,017 --> 00:43:41,882
My responsibility
is to tell the public
711
00:43:42,019 --> 00:43:44,385
and the land-holders
what is happening at Yellowstone.
712
00:43:44,521 --> 00:43:46,955
You know that.
You used to know that
713
00:43:47,992 --> 00:43:50,119
Actually Rick,
as a federal employee,
714
00:43:50,260 --> 00:43:52,785
your responsibility is
what's best for the country.
715
00:43:52,930 --> 00:43:56,161
Now you have evidence
of an eruption but,
716
00:43:56,300 --> 00:43:58,768
and I have heard you say
this yourself again and again,
717
00:43:58,902 --> 00:44:02,167
chances of a Super-eruption
are virtually zero.
718
00:44:03,707 --> 00:44:05,334
No you are right, but l...
719
00:44:05,476 --> 00:44:08,502
Then I really don't see
what the problem is here.
720
00:44:13,917 --> 00:44:15,145
Thank you all,
see you in 10 minutes.
721
00:44:35,205 --> 00:44:37,002
Tremor' s strong and constant,
722
00:44:37,908 --> 00:44:40,399
I'm plugging the co-ordinates
into the seismic image.
723
00:44:40,577 --> 00:44:43,512
Should give us a clearer idea
of where the magma is.
724
00:44:43,647 --> 00:44:46,775
Good.
You got everything you need, Dave?
725
00:44:47,017 --> 00:44:47,813
I think so.
726
00:44:47,951 --> 00:44:48,315
Right.
727
00:44:48,452 --> 00:44:50,386
Well, enough to get me going
until you guys join me tomorrow.
728
00:44:50,521 --> 00:44:52,079
Oh we' ll be out here first thing.
729
00:44:52,222 --> 00:44:54,122
Alright. Don't leave it too long.
730
00:44:54,258 --> 00:44:54,917
Don't worry.
731
00:44:55,059 --> 00:44:55,582
OK.
732
00:44:56,427 --> 00:44:56,859
You out of here?
733
00:44:56,994 --> 00:44:57,858
I' m out of here,
see you tomorrow.
734
00:44:57,995 --> 00:44:59,257
You take care man.
735
00:45:01,932 --> 00:45:03,524
Ladies and gentlemen,
as you know...
736
00:45:03,667 --> 00:45:04,463
Rick's on TV.
737
00:45:04,601 --> 00:45:07,365
...America and the
world has been watching
738
00:45:07,504 --> 00:45:09,972
with growing anxiety
the developing situation
739
00:45:10,107 --> 00:45:11,938
at Yellowstone National Park.
740
00:45:12,076 --> 00:45:14,636
After a full briefing from the
US Geological Survey and in
741
00:45:14,778 --> 00:45:19,806
particular the scientist in charge at
Yellowstone Volcano Observatory,
742
00:45:19,950 --> 00:45:22,646
Rick Lieberman,
I can assure you all that after
743
00:45:22,786 --> 00:45:26,552
weeks of intensive monitoring
at Yellowstone,
744
00:45:26,690 --> 00:45:30,251
they have gathered no evidence
to suggest a so-
745
00:45:30,394 --> 00:45:32,624
called Super-eruption is imminent.
746
00:45:32,763 --> 00:45:35,493
Instead the USGS believes that
a small to moderate
747
00:45:35,632 --> 00:45:37,691
eruption - an event
comparable in size
748
00:45:37,835 --> 00:45:42,238
to the eruption of Mount St Helens
in 1980 - may be due.
749
00:45:42,372 --> 00:45:46,172
At this moment we are taking
the appropriate precautions
750
00:45:46,310 --> 00:45:48,403
in line with this scale of eruption,
751
00:45:48,545 --> 00:45:52,276
the evacuation of the Yellowstone
vicinity is currently underway.
752
00:45:52,416 --> 00:45:53,849
For those in the States bordering
753
00:45:53,984 --> 00:45:57,579
Wyoming we ask you to follow
standard state advice, remain.
754
00:45:57,721 --> 00:46:00,053
indoors, seal all doors
and windows and stock up
755
00:46:00,190 --> 00:46:02,852
on sufficient food
and water for three days.
756
00:46:03,727 --> 00:46:07,493
I ask my fellow
Americans to stay calm and
757
00:46:07,631 --> 00:46:10,464
to use your usual good sense
at this time.
758
00:46:11,235 --> 00:46:11,701
Thank you
759
00:46:11,835 --> 00:46:13,666
Mr Lieberman, Mr Lieberman,
760
00:46:13,804 --> 00:46:16,068
Mr Lieberman up until now you
have been extremely
761
00:46:16,206 --> 00:46:18,470
measured in your statements
about Yellowstone.
762
00:46:18,609 --> 00:46:22,807
Do you agree with Secretary Foster
in what he's just said now?
763
00:46:31,321 --> 00:46:32,686
Yes yes I do.
764
00:46:33,423 --> 00:46:34,355
Thank you.
765
00:46:34,491 --> 00:46:35,253
What?
766
00:46:41,131 --> 00:46:43,395
They have nailed the poor
bastard to the wall.
767
00:46:46,303 --> 00:46:50,637
Final call for passengers on
flight HA356 to San Francisco,
768
00:46:51,809 --> 00:46:55,108
boarding at Gate 24.
Thank you.
769
00:46:55,245 --> 00:46:56,473
Boarding pass please.
770
00:46:57,381 --> 00:46:59,508
Right hand side sir towards
the rear of the plane.
771
00:46:59,650 --> 00:47:00,378
OK thank you.
772
00:47:01,919 --> 00:47:03,216
You sitting up here?
773
00:47:05,255 --> 00:47:07,746
Yes, no l' m back there.
774
00:47:07,891 --> 00:47:09,791
Important business
in Washington and USGS
775
00:47:09,927 --> 00:47:11,019
has you sitting
in the back of the plane?
776
00:47:11,395 --> 00:47:14,091
I recommend a sweet publishing deal,
big TV star like you.
777
00:47:14,231 --> 00:47:15,323
Oh yes.
778
00:47:16,967 --> 00:47:18,935
I take it you had a gun to your
head this afternoon?
779
00:47:19,069 --> 00:47:23,267
Yes you could say that.
780
00:47:23,407 --> 00:47:24,840
Fiona and William?
781
00:47:25,742 --> 00:47:30,270
Oh they are on a plane to London.
See you.
782
00:47:42,826 --> 00:47:49,026
OK guys, the last number' s in.
Fingers crossed.
783
00:47:59,710 --> 00:48:01,302
Just what are we looking at here?
784
00:48:04,047 --> 00:48:08,108
1500 cubic kilometres of melt.
785
00:48:12,823 --> 00:48:14,916
1500.
786
00:48:16,660 --> 00:48:18,252
That's just the top of the chamber.
787
00:49:09,813 --> 00:49:10,837
Sir please sit down,
788
00:49:10,981 --> 00:49:13,176
the captain hasn't turned the
fasten seat belt sign off yet.
789
00:49:13,317 --> 00:49:15,114
Sir there are
no cellphones permitted.
790
00:49:15,252 --> 00:49:16,412
...Field Office...
791
00:49:16,553 --> 00:49:18,145
I have to ask you to turn
your phone off.
792
00:49:20,824 --> 00:49:22,883
Jock, I think he's over here.
793
00:49:28,832 --> 00:49:30,197
Argh. Don't touch my arm.
794
00:49:38,041 --> 00:49:42,273
This is it, Matt, it's started.
62268
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