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(soft piano music)
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- This is a film about
one very simple question:
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how did we get here?
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These are the elements and compounds
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from which all humans are made.
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They're incredibly, almost
embarrassingly, common.
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In fact, almost 99% of the human body
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is a mixture of air,
water, coal, and chalk,
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with traces of other
slightly more exotic elements
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like iron, zinc, phosphorous, and sulfur.
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In fact, I've estimated that
the elements which make up
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the average human cost
at most a few pounds.
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But somehow trillions of
these very ordinary atoms
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conspire miraculously
to organize themselves
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into thinking, breathing,
living human beings.
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How the wonders of creation are assembled
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from such simple building blocks
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is surely the most intriguing
question we can ask.
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You may think that answering it
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is beyond the realm of science.
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But that's changing.
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For the first time, I believe,
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science has pushed past
religion and philosophy
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in daring to tackle this most
fundamental of questions.
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This film is the story of a series
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of bizarre and interconnected discoveries.
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It reveals a hidden safe of nature.
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That woven into it's
simplest and most basic laws
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is a power to be unpredictable.
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It's about how inanimate matter
with no purpose or design
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can spontaneously create exquisite beauty.
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It's about how the same laws that make
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the universe chaotic and unpredictable
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can turn simple dust into human beings.
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It's about the discovery that there is
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a strange and unexpected relationship
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between order and chaos.
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(soft piano music)
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The natural world really is one great,
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blooming, buzzing confusion.
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It's a mess of quirky shapes and blotches.
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What patterns there are
are never quite regular,
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and never seem to repeat exactly.
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The idea that all this
mayhem, all this chaos
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is underpinned, indeed
determined, by mathematical rules,
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and that we can work out
what those rules might be
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run counter to our most
dearly held intuitions.
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So not surprisingly,
the first man to really
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take on the momentous task of unraveling
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nature's mysterious mathematics
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had a very special and unusual mind.
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He was both a great scientist
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and a tragic hero.
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He was born in 1912 in London.
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His name was Alan Turing.
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Alan Turing was a remarkable man;
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one of the greatest
mathematicians who ever lived.
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He discovered many of
the fundamental ideas
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that underpin the modern computer.
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Also, during the Second
World War, he worked here
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at Bletchley Park just
outside today's Milton Keynes
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in what was then a
secret government project
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called Station X, which was set up
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to crack the German military codes.
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The Station X code breakers
proved highly effective,
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and Turing's contribution was crucial.
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The work he personally did to crack
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German naval codes saved
thousands of Allied lives
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and was a turning point in the war.
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But code breaking was just
one aspect of Turing's genius.
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Just one part of his uncanny ability
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to see patterns that are
hidden from the rest of us.
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For Turing, the natural world
offered up the ultimate codes.
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And over the course of his life,
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he'd come tantalizingly
close to cracking them.
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- Turing was a very original person.
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And he had realized that
there was this possibility
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that simple mathematical equations
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might describe aspects
of the biological world,
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and no one had thought of that before.
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- [Jim] Of all nature's mysteries,
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the one that fascinated Turing most
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was the idea that there
might be a mathematical basis
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to human intelligence.
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Turing had very personal
reasons for believing in this.
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- It was the death of this
young man, Christopher Morton,
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who Alan Turing, well, he was gay,
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and he'd been a great
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emotional thing of this
life at that point.
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Christopher Morton suddenly died.
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And Alan Turing was very,
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obviously, he was very
emotionally disturbed by this.
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But you can see is he wanted to put this
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in a intellectual context,
a scientific context.
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And the question he wanted
to put into context was
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what happens to the mind?
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What is it?
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- [Jim] Turing became
convinced that mathematics
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could be used to describe
biological systems
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and, ultimately, intelligence.
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This fascination would give
rise to the modern computer,
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and later in Turing's life,
an even more radical idea.
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The idea that the simple
mathematical description
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could be given for a mysterious process
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that takes place in an embryo.
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The process is called morphogenesis,
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and it's very puzzling.
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At first, all the cells in
the embryo are identical.
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Then, the cells begin to clump together
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and also become different from each other.
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How does this happen?
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With no thought,
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no central coordination,
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how do cells that start off identical
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know to become, say, skin,
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while others become part of an eye.
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Morphogenesis is a spectacular example
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of something called self organization.
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And before Turing,
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no one had a clue how it worked.
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Then in 1952, Turing published this.
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His paper was the world's
first mathematical
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explanation for morphogenesis.
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The sheer chutzpah of
this paper was staggering.
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In it, Turing used a mathematical equation
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of the type normally seen
in papers on astronomy
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or atomic physics to
describe a living process.
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No one had done anything like this.
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Crucially, Turing's equations
did, for the first time,
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describe how a biological
system could self organize.
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They showed that something
smooth and featureless
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can develop features.
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- One of the astonishing
things about Turing's work
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was that starting with the description of
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really very simple processes
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that were governed by
very simple equations,
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by putting these together, suddenly
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complexity emerged.
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The pattern suddenly came
out as a natural consequence.
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And I think in many ways this
was very, very unexpected.
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- [Jim] In essence, Turing's equations
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described something quite familiar,
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but which no one had thought of
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in the context of biology before.
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Think of the way a steady
wind flowing across sand
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creates all kinds of shapes.
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The grains self organize into
ripples, waves, and dunes.
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This happens even though the
grains are virtually identical
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and have no knowledge of the
shape they become part of.
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Turing argues that, in a very similar way,
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chemicals seeping across an embryo
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might cause its cells to self organize
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into different organs.
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These are Turing's own
very rough scribblings
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of how this might work.
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They show how a completely
featureless chemical soup
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can evolve these strange mods and patches.
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In his paper, he refined his sketches
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to show how his equations
could spontaneously
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create markings similar to those
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on the skins of animals.
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- Turing went around showing
people pictures, saying,
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"Does this look a bit like
the patterns on a cow?"
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And everyone sort of,
what is this man on about?
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But actually, and he
knew what he was doing,
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because yes, indeed, they did
like the patterns on a cow,
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and that's one of the reasons have this
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sort of duffle pattern order.
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So an area where mathematics
have never been used before,
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pattern formation in
biology, animal markings,
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suddenly the door was
opened and we could see that
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mathematics might be useful
in that sort of area.
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So even though Turing's exact equations
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are not the full story,
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they are the first piece
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of mathematical work that showed there was
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any possibility of doing
this kind of thing.
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- [Jim] Of course, we now know
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that morphogenesis is
much more complicated
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than the process Turing's
equations describe.
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In fact, the precise mechanism of how
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DNA molecules in our cells
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interacts with other chemicals
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is still fiercely debated by scientists.
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But Turing's idea that whatever is going
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is deep down a simple mathematical process
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was truly revolutionary.
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- I think Alan Turing's paper is
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probably the cornerstone in the whole idea
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of how morphogenesis works.
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What it does is it provides
us with a mechanism,
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something that Darwin didn't
for how pattern emerges.
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Darwin, of course, tells us
that once you have a pattern
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and it is coded for in the genes,
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that may or may not be passed on
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depending on circumstances.
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But what it doesn't do is explain
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where that pattern comes
from in the first place.
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That's the real mystery.
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And so what Turing's had done
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was to suddenly provide an accessible
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chemical mechanism for doing this.
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That was amazing.
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- [Jim] Turing was onto
a really big, bold idea.
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But sadly, we can only speculate how his
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extraordinary mind would
have developed his idea.
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Because shortly after
his groundbreaking paper
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on morphogenesis, a dreadful
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and completely avoidable
tragedy destroyed his life.
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After his work breaking
codes at Bletchley Park,
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you might all have assumed that Turing
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would have been by the country
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he did so much to protect.
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This couldn't be further from the truth.
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What happened to him after the war
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was a great tragedy,
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and one of the most shameful episodes
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in the history of British science.
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The same year Turing published
his morphogenesis paper,
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he had a brief affair with
a man called Arnold Murray.
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The affair went sour,
and Murray was involved
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in a burglary at Turing's house.
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But when Turing reported
this to the police,
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they arrested him as well as Murray.
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In court, the prosecution then argued
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that Turing, with his
university education,
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had led Murray astray.
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He was convicted of gross indecency.
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The judge then offered
Turing a dreadful choice.
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He could either go to prison
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or sign up to a regime of
female hormone injections
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to cure him of his homosexuality.
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He chose the latter,
and it was to send him
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into a spiral of depression.
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On the 8th of June, 1954,
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Turing's body was found by his cleaner.
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He died the day before by
taking a bite from an apple
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he'd laced with cyanide,
ending his own life.
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(somber violin music)
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Alan Turing died aged just 41.
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The loss to science is incalculable.
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Turing would never know that his ideas
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would inspire an entirely new
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mathematical approach to biology,
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and that scientists would
find equations like his
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really do explain many of the shapes
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that appear on living organisms.
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Looking back, we now know Turing
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had really grasped the idea that
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the wonders of creation are derived
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from the simplest of rules.
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He had, perhaps unexpectedly,
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taken the first step to
a new kind of science.
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The next step in this story
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was just as unexpected,
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and in many ways just
as tragic as Turing's.
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In the early 1950s,
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around the time of Turing's
seminal paper on morphogenesis,
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a brilliant Russian chemist
by the name of Boris Belousov
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was beginning his own investigations into
261
00:16:06,466 --> 00:16:08,843
the chemistry of nature.
262
00:16:08,843 --> 00:16:10,742
Deep behind the iron curtain
263
00:16:10,742 --> 00:16:13,752
in a lab at the Soviet Ministry of Health,
264
00:16:13,752 --> 00:16:16,811
he was beginning to
investigate the way our bodies
265
00:16:16,811 --> 00:16:19,061
extract energy from sugars.
266
00:16:22,761 --> 00:16:27,280
Just like Turing, Belousov was
working on a personal project
267
00:16:27,280 --> 00:16:29,639
having just finished
a distinguished career
268
00:16:29,639 --> 00:16:32,183
as a scientist in the military.
269
00:16:32,183 --> 00:16:36,603
In his lab, Belousov had
formulated a mixture of chemicals
270
00:16:36,603 --> 00:16:40,390
to mimic one part of the
process of glucose absorption
271
00:16:40,390 --> 00:16:41,934
in the body.
272
00:16:41,934 --> 00:16:45,402
The mix of chemicals sat on
the lab bench in front of him,
273
00:16:45,402 --> 00:16:48,626
clear and colorless while being shaken.
274
00:16:48,626 --> 00:16:51,070
As he mixed in the final chemical,
275
00:16:51,070 --> 00:16:53,820
the whole solution changed color.
276
00:16:54,672 --> 00:16:56,843
Now this isn't particularly remarkable.
277
00:16:56,843 --> 00:17:00,696
If we mix ink into
water, it changes color.
278
00:17:00,696 --> 00:17:04,863
But then something happened
that made no sense at all.
279
00:17:06,137 --> 00:17:09,137
The mixture began to go clear again.
280
00:17:14,888 --> 00:17:16,805
Belousov was astounded.
281
00:17:17,657 --> 00:17:20,209
Chemicals can mix together and react.
282
00:17:20,209 --> 00:17:22,997
But they shouldn't be able
to go back on themselves
283
00:17:22,997 --> 00:17:26,933
to apparently unmix without intervention.
284
00:17:26,933 --> 00:17:30,308
You can change from a clear
mixture to a colored mixture
285
00:17:30,308 --> 00:17:32,975
fine, but surely not back again.
286
00:17:35,895 --> 00:17:37,746
And it got weirder.
287
00:17:37,746 --> 00:17:40,523
Belousov's chemicals
didn't just spontaneously
288
00:17:40,523 --> 00:17:42,476
go into reverse.
289
00:17:42,476 --> 00:17:44,321
They oscillated.
290
00:17:44,321 --> 00:17:47,937
They switched back and
forth from colored to clear
291
00:17:47,937 --> 00:17:50,262
as if they were being
driven by some sort of
292
00:17:50,262 --> 00:17:52,429
hidden chemical metronome.
293
00:17:55,084 --> 00:17:58,871
With meticulous care, Belousov
repeated his experiment
294
00:17:58,871 --> 00:18:00,658
again and again.
295
00:18:00,658 --> 00:18:02,965
It was the same every time.
296
00:18:02,965 --> 00:18:05,458
His mixture would cycle from clear
297
00:18:05,458 --> 00:18:08,107
to colored and back again repeatedly.
298
00:18:08,107 --> 00:18:11,404
He discovered something
that was almost like magic,
299
00:18:11,404 --> 00:18:13,709
a physical process that seemed to violate
300
00:18:13,709 --> 00:18:15,292
the laws of nature.
301
00:18:18,369 --> 00:18:21,460
Convinced he'd discovered
something of great importance,
302
00:18:21,460 --> 00:18:23,938
Belousov wrote up his findings,
303
00:18:23,938 --> 00:18:27,733
keen to share his discover
with the wider world.
304
00:18:27,733 --> 00:18:29,694
But when he submitted his paper to leading
305
00:18:29,694 --> 00:18:31,716
Russian scientific journal,
306
00:18:31,716 --> 00:18:35,883
he received a wholly unexpected
and damning response.
307
00:18:36,825 --> 00:18:39,604
The editor of the journal told Belousov
308
00:18:39,604 --> 00:18:43,531
that his findings in the lab
were quite simply impossible.
309
00:18:43,531 --> 00:18:47,109
They contravene the
fundamental laws of physics.
310
00:18:47,109 --> 00:18:49,438
The only explanation was that Belousov
311
00:18:49,438 --> 00:18:51,923
had made a mistake in his experiments.
312
00:18:51,923 --> 00:18:55,923
And the work was simply
not fit for publication.
313
00:19:00,884 --> 00:19:03,805
The rejection crushed Belousov.
314
00:19:03,805 --> 00:19:06,121
Deeply insulted by the suggestion his work
315
00:19:06,121 --> 00:19:07,423
had been botched,
316
00:19:07,423 --> 00:19:10,014
he abandoned his experiments.
317
00:19:10,014 --> 00:19:12,931
Soon he gave up science altogether.
318
00:19:14,695 --> 00:19:17,815
The tragic irony was
that, divided as they were
319
00:19:17,815 --> 00:19:19,494
by the iron curtain,
320
00:19:19,494 --> 00:19:23,419
Belousov never encountered Turing's work.
321
00:19:23,419 --> 00:19:27,586
For if he had, he would have
been completely vindicated.
322
00:19:28,901 --> 00:19:32,022
It turns out that Belousov's
oscillating chemicals,
323
00:19:32,022 --> 00:19:34,975
far from contravening the laws of physics,
324
00:19:34,975 --> 00:19:38,314
were actually a real-world example
325
00:19:38,314 --> 00:19:42,481
of precisely the behavior
Turing's equations predicted.
326
00:19:52,976 --> 00:19:54,767
While the connection might not appear
327
00:19:54,767 --> 00:19:56,840
obvious at first sight,
328
00:19:56,840 --> 00:19:59,259
other scientists showed that if you left
329
00:19:59,259 --> 00:20:01,835
a variation of Belousov's chemicals,
330
00:20:01,835 --> 00:20:04,154
unstirred in a Petri dish,
331
00:20:04,154 --> 00:20:07,541
instead of simply oscillating,
they self organized
332
00:20:07,541 --> 00:20:09,270
into shapes.
333
00:20:09,270 --> 00:20:13,300
In fact, they go beyond Turing's
simple blobs and stripes
334
00:20:13,300 --> 00:20:18,122
to create stunningly beautiful
structures and patterns
335
00:20:18,122 --> 00:20:19,372
out of nowhere.
336
00:20:29,603 --> 00:20:32,182
- The amazing and very unexpected thing
337
00:20:32,182 --> 00:20:33,762
about the Bizet Reaction
338
00:20:33,762 --> 00:20:36,083
is that someone had discovered a system
339
00:20:36,083 --> 00:20:39,453
which essentially reproduces
the Turing equations.
340
00:20:39,453 --> 00:20:43,614
And so from what looks like
a very, very bland solution
341
00:20:43,614 --> 00:20:46,546
emerged these astonishing
patterns of waves
342
00:20:46,546 --> 00:20:48,546
and scrolls and spirals.
343
00:20:53,295 --> 00:20:57,480
- [Jim] Now this is emphatically
not abstract science.
344
00:20:57,480 --> 00:21:01,231
The way Belousov's chemicals
move as coordinated waves
345
00:21:01,231 --> 00:21:03,791
is exactly the way our heart cells
346
00:21:03,791 --> 00:21:06,208
are coordinated as they beat.
347
00:21:09,523 --> 00:21:12,238
Animal skins and heart beats.
348
00:21:12,238 --> 00:21:14,167
Self organization seems to operate
349
00:21:14,167 --> 00:21:16,417
all over the natural world.
350
00:21:23,152 --> 00:21:25,618
So why were the scientific community
351
00:21:25,618 --> 00:21:27,706
in Turing and Belousov's day
352
00:21:27,706 --> 00:21:30,327
so uninterested or even hostile
353
00:21:30,327 --> 00:21:33,577
to this astonishing and beautiful idea?
354
00:21:37,680 --> 00:21:40,513
Well the reason was all too human.
355
00:21:42,223 --> 00:21:46,208
Mainstream scientists
simply didn't like it.
356
00:21:46,208 --> 00:21:49,784
To them, it seemed to
run counter to science
357
00:21:49,784 --> 00:21:52,201
and all that it had achieved.
358
00:22:02,005 --> 00:22:04,335
To change that view would require
359
00:22:04,335 --> 00:22:08,502
a truly shocking and completely
unexpected discovery.
360
00:22:12,458 --> 00:22:15,898
In essence, by the beginning
of the 20th century,
361
00:22:15,898 --> 00:22:19,101
scientists saw the universe as a giant
362
00:22:19,101 --> 00:22:21,601
complicated mechanical device,
363
00:22:22,726 --> 00:22:26,476
kind of a super-sized
version of this orrery.
364
00:22:30,940 --> 00:22:34,022
The idea was that the universe is a huge
365
00:22:34,022 --> 00:22:38,189
and intricate machine that obeys
orderly mathematical rules.
366
00:22:39,598 --> 00:22:41,335
If you knew the rules of how the machine
367
00:22:41,335 --> 00:22:43,366
was configured to start with,
368
00:22:43,366 --> 00:22:46,686
as you turn the handle
over and over again,
369
00:22:46,686 --> 00:22:50,519
it will behave in an
entirely predictable way.
370
00:22:52,969 --> 00:22:54,637
- Back in the times of Isaac Newton
371
00:22:54,637 --> 00:22:56,633
when people were discovering the laws
372
00:22:56,633 --> 00:22:58,436
that drove the universe,
373
00:22:58,436 --> 00:23:00,256
they came up with this kind of metaphor
374
00:23:00,256 --> 00:23:01,677
of a clockwork universe.
375
00:23:01,677 --> 00:23:03,782
The universe looked like a machine
376
00:23:03,782 --> 00:23:06,694
which had been set going
at the instant of creation,
377
00:23:06,694 --> 00:23:09,451
and just followed the
rules and ticked along.
378
00:23:09,451 --> 00:23:10,805
And it was a complicated machine,
379
00:23:10,805 --> 00:23:14,144
and therefore complicated things happen.
380
00:23:14,144 --> 00:23:18,222
But once you set it going,
it would only do one thing.
381
00:23:18,222 --> 00:23:21,000
And the message that people drew from this
382
00:23:21,000 --> 00:23:23,970
was that anything describable
by mathematical rules
383
00:23:23,970 --> 00:23:27,387
must actually basically be fairly simple.
384
00:23:31,655 --> 00:23:34,848
- [Jim] Find the mathematics
that describes the system,
385
00:23:34,848 --> 00:23:38,461
and you can then predict
how that system will unfold.
386
00:23:38,461 --> 00:23:40,826
That was the big idea.
387
00:23:40,826 --> 00:23:43,424
It began with Newton's law of gravity,
388
00:23:43,424 --> 00:23:45,700
which can be used to predict how a planet
389
00:23:45,700 --> 00:23:47,852
moves around the Sun.
390
00:23:47,852 --> 00:23:50,809
Scientists soon found many other equations
391
00:23:50,809 --> 00:23:51,892
just like it.
392
00:23:54,396 --> 00:23:58,934
Newtonian physics seemed like
the ultimate crystal ball.
393
00:23:58,934 --> 00:24:01,924
It held up the tantalizing
possibility that the future
394
00:24:01,924 --> 00:24:04,221
could, in principle, be known.
395
00:24:04,221 --> 00:24:06,673
The more careful your
measurements are today,
396
00:24:06,673 --> 00:24:10,840
the better you can predict
what will happen tomorrow.
397
00:24:15,083 --> 00:24:19,139
But Newtonianism had a
dangerous consequence.
398
00:24:19,139 --> 00:24:21,416
If a nice mathematical system
399
00:24:21,416 --> 00:24:24,222
that worked in a similar way to my orrery
400
00:24:24,222 --> 00:24:27,416
did sometimes become unpredictable,
401
00:24:27,416 --> 00:24:30,735
scientists assumed some
malign outside force
402
00:24:30,735 --> 00:24:32,107
was causing it.
403
00:24:32,107 --> 00:24:34,130
Perhaps dirt had got it.
404
00:24:34,130 --> 00:24:36,322
Perhaps the cogs were wearing out.
405
00:24:36,322 --> 00:24:39,731
Or perhaps someone had tampered with it.
406
00:24:39,731 --> 00:24:42,270
- Basically, we used to think if you saw
407
00:24:42,270 --> 00:24:44,979
very irregular behavior in some
408
00:24:44,979 --> 00:24:46,747
problem you're working on,
409
00:24:46,747 --> 00:24:48,129
this must be the result of some sort of
410
00:24:48,129 --> 00:24:50,044
random outside influences.
411
00:24:50,044 --> 00:24:52,950
It couldn't be internally generated.
412
00:24:52,950 --> 00:24:55,177
It wasn't an intrinsic
part of the problem.
413
00:24:55,177 --> 00:24:58,510
It was some other thing impacting on it.
414
00:25:00,883 --> 00:25:03,180
- [Jim] Looked at from this point of view,
415
00:25:03,180 --> 00:25:07,563
the whole idea of self
organization seemed absurd.
416
00:25:07,563 --> 00:25:09,639
The idea that patterns of the kind
417
00:25:09,639 --> 00:25:11,604
Turing and Belousov had found
418
00:25:11,604 --> 00:25:13,709
could appear of their own accord
419
00:25:13,709 --> 00:25:17,876
without any outside influence
was a complete taboo.
420
00:25:18,990 --> 00:25:22,324
- [Man] Six, five, four, three--
421
00:25:22,324 --> 00:25:25,974
- [Jim] The only way for self
organization to be accepted
422
00:25:25,974 --> 00:25:30,141
was for the domineering
Newtonian view to collapse.
423
00:25:31,030 --> 00:25:33,530
But that seemed very unlikely.
424
00:25:35,691 --> 00:25:37,849
After all, by the late 60s,
425
00:25:37,849 --> 00:25:41,030
it had delivered all the
wonders of the modern age.
426
00:25:41,030 --> 00:25:42,408
- [Man On Radio] Beautiful, beautiful
427
00:25:42,408 --> 00:25:43,950
- [Man On Radio] Isn't that something?
428
00:25:43,950 --> 00:25:46,117
(mumbles)
429
00:25:49,297 --> 00:25:52,942
- [Jim] But then at the same
time as the moon mission,
430
00:25:52,942 --> 00:25:57,380
a small group of scientists,
all ardent Newtonians,
431
00:25:57,380 --> 00:26:01,380
quite unexpectedly found
something wasn't right;
432
00:26:02,495 --> 00:26:03,912
not right at all.
433
00:26:08,628 --> 00:26:11,337
During the second half
of the 20th century,
434
00:26:11,337 --> 00:26:13,843
a devil was found in the detail.
435
00:26:13,843 --> 00:26:18,066
A devil that would ultimately
shatter the Newtonian dream,
436
00:26:18,066 --> 00:26:20,845
and plunge us literally into chaos.
437
00:26:20,845 --> 00:26:24,512
(chaotic electrical sounds)
438
00:26:30,436 --> 00:26:33,602
Ironically, the events
that forced scientists
439
00:26:33,602 --> 00:26:36,725
to take self organization seriously
440
00:26:36,725 --> 00:26:40,808
was the discovery of a
phenomenon known as chaos.
441
00:26:42,526 --> 00:26:46,163
Chaos is one of the most
overused words in English.
442
00:26:46,163 --> 00:26:49,830
But in science, has a
very specific meaning.
443
00:26:50,887 --> 00:26:53,984
It says that a system that
is completely described
444
00:26:53,984 --> 00:26:56,250
by mathematical equations
445
00:26:56,250 --> 00:26:59,861
is more than capable
of being unpredictable
446
00:26:59,861 --> 00:27:03,528
without any outside
interference whatsoever.
447
00:27:04,745 --> 00:27:06,649
- There's a widespread misapprehension
448
00:27:06,649 --> 00:27:09,236
that chaos is just somehow saying
449
00:27:09,236 --> 00:27:12,318
the very familiar fact that
everything's complicated.
450
00:27:12,318 --> 00:27:15,519
I mean, the nitwit chaos
assist in Jurassic Park
451
00:27:15,519 --> 00:27:17,813
was under that confusion.
452
00:27:17,813 --> 00:27:20,145
It's something much simpler and yet
453
00:27:20,145 --> 00:27:22,056
much more complicated than that.
454
00:27:22,056 --> 00:27:26,139
It says some very, very
simple rules or equations
455
00:27:27,539 --> 00:27:29,735
with nothing random in them;
456
00:27:29,735 --> 00:27:31,142
they're completely determined;
457
00:27:31,142 --> 00:27:33,874
we know everything about the rule;
458
00:27:33,874 --> 00:27:38,041
can have outcomes that are
entirely unpredictable.
459
00:27:41,166 --> 00:27:43,323
- [Jim] Hail is one of the most unwelcome
460
00:27:43,323 --> 00:27:45,240
discoveries in science.
461
00:27:47,311 --> 00:27:49,800
The man who forced the
scientific community
462
00:27:49,800 --> 00:27:52,889
to confront it was an
American (mumbles) zoologist
463
00:27:52,889 --> 00:27:54,639
called Edward Lorenz.
464
00:27:55,604 --> 00:27:58,332
In the early 1960s, he tried to find
465
00:27:58,332 --> 00:28:02,499
mathematical equations that
could help predict the weather.
466
00:28:05,406 --> 00:28:09,074
Like all his contemporaries,
he believed that, in principle,
467
00:28:09,074 --> 00:28:13,433
the weather system was no
different to my orrery.
468
00:28:13,433 --> 00:28:15,771
A mechanical system
that could be described
469
00:28:15,771 --> 00:28:18,188
and predicted mathematically.
470
00:28:19,796 --> 00:28:21,213
But he was wrong.
471
00:28:25,266 --> 00:28:27,257
When Lorenz wrote down what looked like
472
00:28:27,257 --> 00:28:30,263
perfectly simple mathematical equations
473
00:28:30,263 --> 00:28:33,307
to describe the movement of air currents,
474
00:28:33,307 --> 00:28:36,234
they didn't do what they were supposed to.
475
00:28:36,234 --> 00:28:39,817
They made no useful
predictions whatsoever.
476
00:28:42,864 --> 00:28:46,418
It was as if the lightest
breath of wind one day
477
00:28:46,418 --> 00:28:49,424
could make the difference a month later
478
00:28:49,424 --> 00:28:53,341
between a snow storm and
a perfectly sunny day.
479
00:28:56,037 --> 00:28:58,623
How can a simple system that works
480
00:28:58,623 --> 00:29:01,866
in the regular clockwork
manner of my orrery
481
00:29:01,866 --> 00:29:04,295
become unpredictable?
482
00:29:04,295 --> 00:29:07,038
It's all down to how it's configured,
483
00:29:07,038 --> 00:29:09,357
how the gears are connected.
484
00:29:09,357 --> 00:29:12,445
In essence, under certain circumstances,
485
00:29:12,445 --> 00:29:15,409
the tiniest difference
in the starting positions
486
00:29:15,409 --> 00:29:19,662
of the cogs, differences that
are too small to measure,
487
00:29:19,662 --> 00:29:24,566
can get bigger and bigger
with each turn of the handle.
488
00:29:24,566 --> 00:29:26,531
With each step in the process,
489
00:29:26,531 --> 00:29:29,602
the system then moves
further and further away
490
00:29:29,602 --> 00:29:32,987
from where you thought it was going.
491
00:29:32,987 --> 00:29:35,808
Lorenz captured this radical idea
492
00:29:35,808 --> 00:29:38,037
in an influential talk he gave
493
00:29:38,037 --> 00:29:41,332
called Does the Flap
of a Butterfly's Wings
494
00:29:41,332 --> 00:29:44,332
in Brazil Set Up a Tornado in Texas?
495
00:29:49,557 --> 00:29:52,332
It was a powerful and evocative image,
496
00:29:52,332 --> 00:29:56,329
and within months, a new phrase
had entered our language:
497
00:29:56,329 --> 00:29:58,079
the butterfly effect.
498
00:29:59,749 --> 00:30:01,363
And the butterfly effect,
499
00:30:01,363 --> 00:30:04,257
the hallmark of all chaotic systems,
500
00:30:04,257 --> 00:30:06,757
started turning up everywhere.
501
00:30:12,521 --> 00:30:16,455
In the early '70s, a young
Australian called Robert May
502
00:30:16,455 --> 00:30:19,093
was investigating a mathematical equation
503
00:30:19,093 --> 00:30:23,614
that modeled how animal
populations changed over time.
504
00:30:23,614 --> 00:30:27,819
But here too lurked the
dreaded butterfly effect.
505
00:30:27,819 --> 00:30:30,125
Immeasurably small changes to the rate
506
00:30:30,125 --> 00:30:32,358
at which the animals reproduced
507
00:30:32,358 --> 00:30:34,693
could sometimes have huge consequences
508
00:30:34,693 --> 00:30:37,344
on their overall population.
509
00:30:37,344 --> 00:30:40,023
Numbers could go up and down wildly
510
00:30:40,023 --> 00:30:41,856
for no obvious reason.
511
00:30:43,076 --> 00:30:45,994
The idea that a mathematical equation
512
00:30:45,994 --> 00:30:50,196
gave you the power to predict
how a system will behave
513
00:30:50,196 --> 00:30:51,029
was dead.
514
00:30:52,416 --> 00:30:55,649
- In some sense, this is the
end of the Newtonian dream.
515
00:30:55,649 --> 00:30:58,002
When I was a graduate student,
516
00:30:58,002 --> 00:30:59,169
the belief was
517
00:31:00,601 --> 00:31:03,876
as we got more and more computer power,
518
00:31:03,876 --> 00:31:06,425
we'd be able to solve
ever more complicated
519
00:31:06,425 --> 00:31:07,925
sets of equations.
520
00:31:09,768 --> 00:31:11,833
But this said that's not necessarily true.
521
00:31:11,833 --> 00:31:15,500
You could have the simplest
equations you can think of,
522
00:31:15,500 --> 00:31:19,569
with nothing random in
them, you know everything.
523
00:31:19,569 --> 00:31:21,319
And yet, if they have
524
00:31:22,856 --> 00:31:26,356
behavior that gives you chaotic solutions,
525
00:31:27,656 --> 00:31:30,188
then you can never know the starting point
526
00:31:30,188 --> 00:31:31,688
accurately enough.
527
00:31:35,797 --> 00:31:38,360
- [Jim] Centuries of scientific certainty
528
00:31:38,360 --> 00:31:41,509
dissolved in just a few short years.
529
00:31:41,509 --> 00:31:43,270
The truth of the clockwork universe
530
00:31:43,270 --> 00:31:45,940
turned out to be just an illusion;
531
00:31:45,940 --> 00:31:48,858
something which had
seemed a logical certainty
532
00:31:48,858 --> 00:31:52,364
revealed itself merely as an act of faith.
533
00:31:52,364 --> 00:31:54,372
And what's worse, the
truth had been staring us
534
00:31:54,372 --> 00:31:56,420
in the face all the time,
535
00:31:56,420 --> 00:31:58,753
because chaos is everywhere.
536
00:32:03,417 --> 00:32:06,943
It seemed unpredictability was hardwired
537
00:32:06,943 --> 00:32:10,860
into everywhere aspect
of the world we live in.
538
00:32:12,606 --> 00:32:15,364
The global climate could
dramatically change
539
00:32:15,364 --> 00:32:18,508
in the course of a few short years.
540
00:32:18,508 --> 00:32:22,290
The stock market could
crash without warning.
541
00:32:22,290 --> 00:32:26,131
We could be wiped from the
face of the planet overnight,
542
00:32:26,131 --> 00:32:29,964
and there is nothing
anyone could do about it.
543
00:32:35,447 --> 00:32:40,397
Unfortunately, I have to tell
you that all of this is true.
544
00:32:40,397 --> 00:32:43,980
And yet to be scared
of chaos is pointless.
545
00:32:44,851 --> 00:32:48,351
It's woven into the basic laws of physics.
546
00:32:49,738 --> 00:32:53,753
I mean, really all has to
accept it as a fact of life.
547
00:32:53,753 --> 00:32:57,328
- The idea of chaos really
did have a big impact
548
00:32:57,328 --> 00:32:59,318
over a period of about 20 or 30 years,
549
00:32:59,318 --> 00:33:01,452
because it changed the way everyone
550
00:33:01,452 --> 00:33:03,839
thought about what they
were doing in science.
551
00:33:03,839 --> 00:33:05,166
It changed into the point the point
552
00:33:05,166 --> 00:33:08,486
that they forgot that they'd
ever believed otherwise.
553
00:33:08,486 --> 00:33:11,453
What chaos did was to show us
554
00:33:11,453 --> 00:33:15,227
that the possibilities inherent
in the simple mathematics
555
00:33:15,227 --> 00:33:18,677
are much broader, are much more general
556
00:33:18,677 --> 00:33:21,249
than you might imagine.
557
00:33:21,249 --> 00:33:23,781
And so a clockwork universe
558
00:33:23,781 --> 00:33:27,149
can nonetheless behave
in the rich, complex way
559
00:33:27,149 --> 00:33:28,732
that we experience.
560
00:33:31,194 --> 00:33:33,437
- [Jim] The discovery of chaos was a real
561
00:33:33,437 --> 00:33:36,712
turning point in the history of science.
562
00:33:36,712 --> 00:33:39,385
As it tore down the Newtonian dream,
563
00:33:39,385 --> 00:33:41,463
scientists began to look more favorably
564
00:33:41,463 --> 00:33:43,488
at Turing and Belousov's work
565
00:33:43,488 --> 00:33:46,552
on spontaneous pattern formation.
566
00:33:46,552 --> 00:33:49,630
And perhaps more
importantly, as they did so,
567
00:33:49,630 --> 00:33:53,168
they realized something truly astonishing.
568
00:33:53,168 --> 00:33:56,596
That there was a very
deep and unexpected link,
569
00:33:56,596 --> 00:33:59,722
a truly cosmic connection between nature's
570
00:33:59,722 --> 00:34:02,521
strange power to self organize
571
00:34:02,521 --> 00:34:06,978
and the chaotic consequences
of the butterfly effect.
572
00:34:06,978 --> 00:34:09,657
Between them, Turing, Belousov,
573
00:34:09,657 --> 00:34:12,650
May, and Lorenz had all discovered
574
00:34:12,650 --> 00:34:16,317
different faces of just
one really big idea.
575
00:34:20,044 --> 00:34:22,428
They discovered that the natural world
576
00:34:22,428 --> 00:34:26,467
could be deeply, profoundly unpredictable.
577
00:34:26,467 --> 00:34:28,866
But the very same things
that make it unpredictable
578
00:34:28,866 --> 00:34:33,011
also allow it to create
pattern and structure,
579
00:34:33,011 --> 00:34:34,344
order and chaos.
580
00:34:35,577 --> 00:34:38,134
It seems the two are more deeply linked
581
00:34:38,134 --> 00:34:40,884
than we could have ever imagined.
582
00:34:42,077 --> 00:34:44,551
So how is this possible?
583
00:34:44,551 --> 00:34:47,383
What do phenomena as apparently different
584
00:34:47,383 --> 00:34:49,856
as a pattern in Belousov's chemicals
585
00:34:49,856 --> 00:34:52,439
and the weather have in common?
586
00:34:54,866 --> 00:34:57,068
First, though both systems behave
587
00:34:57,068 --> 00:34:59,412
in very complicated ways,
588
00:34:59,412 --> 00:35:01,985
they are both based on surprisingly simple
589
00:35:01,985 --> 00:35:03,568
mathematical rules.
590
00:35:08,723 --> 00:35:12,572
Secondly, these rules
have a unique property.
591
00:35:12,572 --> 00:35:15,663
A property that's often
referred to as coupling,
592
00:35:15,663 --> 00:35:16,663
or feedback.
593
00:35:22,636 --> 00:35:24,342
To show you what I mean,
594
00:35:24,342 --> 00:35:28,030
to show you both order and
chaos can emerge on their own
595
00:35:28,030 --> 00:35:30,791
from a simple system with feedback,
596
00:35:30,791 --> 00:35:33,267
I'm going to do what seems at first glance
597
00:35:33,267 --> 00:35:36,017
like a rather trivial experiment.
598
00:35:41,633 --> 00:35:44,204
This screen behind me is connected
599
00:35:44,204 --> 00:35:47,022
up to the camera that's filming me.
600
00:35:47,022 --> 00:35:50,814
But the camera in turn is
filming me with the screen.
601
00:35:50,814 --> 00:35:54,792
This creates a loop with
multiple copies of me
602
00:35:54,792 --> 00:35:56,792
appearing on the screen.
603
00:35:59,502 --> 00:36:02,912
This is a classic example
of a feedback loop.
604
00:36:02,912 --> 00:36:06,783
We get a picture in a
picture in a picture.
605
00:36:06,783 --> 00:36:09,485
At first it seems fairly predictable,
606
00:36:09,485 --> 00:36:11,845
but as we zoom the camera in,
607
00:36:11,845 --> 00:36:15,428
some pretty strange
things begin to happen.
608
00:36:16,891 --> 00:36:20,414
The first thing I notice is
that the object I'm filming
609
00:36:20,414 --> 00:36:22,576
stops bearing much resemblance to what
610
00:36:22,576 --> 00:36:24,743
now appears on the screen.
611
00:36:29,361 --> 00:36:32,080
Small changes in the
movements of the match
612
00:36:32,080 --> 00:36:35,163
become rapidly amplified
as they loop around
613
00:36:35,163 --> 00:36:39,330
from the camera to the screen
and back to the camera.
614
00:36:42,360 --> 00:36:44,396
So even though I can describe each step
615
00:36:44,396 --> 00:36:46,607
in the process mathematically,
616
00:36:46,607 --> 00:36:49,097
I still have no way of predicting
617
00:36:49,097 --> 00:36:52,288
how tiny changes in the
flickering of the flame
618
00:36:52,288 --> 00:36:54,871
will end up in the final image.
619
00:36:58,514 --> 00:37:01,764
This is the butterfly effect in action.
620
00:37:07,770 --> 00:37:10,603
But now here comes the spooky bit.
621
00:37:12,670 --> 00:37:15,976
With just a slight tweak to the system,
622
00:37:15,976 --> 00:37:18,980
these strange and rather
beautiful patterns
623
00:37:18,980 --> 00:37:20,313
begin to emerge.
624
00:37:22,710 --> 00:37:26,221
The same system, one that's
based on simple rules
625
00:37:26,221 --> 00:37:29,554
with feedback, produces chaos and order.
626
00:37:38,720 --> 00:37:42,638
- The same mathematics is
generating chaotic behavior
627
00:37:42,638 --> 00:37:44,555
and patterned behavior.
628
00:37:45,763 --> 00:37:49,345
This changes completely how
you think about all of this.
629
00:37:49,345 --> 00:37:52,447
The idea that there are
regularities in nature
630
00:37:52,447 --> 00:37:56,723
and then totally separately
from them are irregularities,
631
00:37:56,723 --> 00:37:59,064
and these are just two different things.
632
00:37:59,064 --> 00:38:00,282
It's just not true.
633
00:38:00,282 --> 00:38:03,418
These are two ends of
the spectrum of behavior
634
00:38:03,418 --> 00:38:06,702
which can be generated by
the same kind of mathematics.
635
00:38:06,702 --> 00:38:08,942
And it's the closest thing
that we have at the moment
636
00:38:08,942 --> 00:38:13,029
to the kind of true mathematics of nature.
637
00:38:13,029 --> 00:38:15,297
- I think one of the
great take-home messages
638
00:38:15,297 --> 00:38:18,225
from Turing's work and
from the discoveries
639
00:38:18,225 --> 00:38:20,763
in chemistry and biology and so on,
640
00:38:20,763 --> 00:38:22,986
is that, ultimately, pattern formation
641
00:38:22,986 --> 00:38:25,251
seems to be woven very, very deeply
642
00:38:25,251 --> 00:38:26,955
into the fabric of the universe.
643
00:38:26,955 --> 00:38:29,095
And it actually takes
some very, very simple
644
00:38:29,095 --> 00:38:31,715
and familiar processes like diffusion,
645
00:38:31,715 --> 00:38:33,749
like the rates of chemical reactions.
646
00:38:33,749 --> 00:38:36,919
And the interplay between
them naturally gives rise
647
00:38:36,919 --> 00:38:37,938
to pattern.
648
00:38:37,938 --> 00:38:42,105
So pattern is everywhere.
It's just waiting to happen.
649
00:38:44,271 --> 00:38:45,932
- [Jim] From the '70s on,
650
00:38:45,932 --> 00:38:48,747
more and more scientists began to embrace
651
00:38:48,747 --> 00:38:51,531
the concept that chaos and pattern
652
00:38:51,531 --> 00:38:55,724
are built into nature's most basic rules.
653
00:38:55,724 --> 00:38:58,169
But one scientist, more than any other,
654
00:38:58,169 --> 00:39:00,590
brought this fundamentally
new understanding
655
00:39:00,590 --> 00:39:04,257
to this astonishing and
often puzzling idea.
656
00:39:06,180 --> 00:39:09,981
He was a colorful character
and something of a maverick.
657
00:39:09,981 --> 00:39:12,481
His name is Benoit Mandelbrot.
658
00:39:15,364 --> 00:39:18,877
Benoit Mandelbrot wasn't
an ordinary child.
659
00:39:18,877 --> 00:39:21,436
He skipped the first two years of school.
660
00:39:21,436 --> 00:39:23,631
And as a Jew in war-torn Europe,
661
00:39:23,631 --> 00:39:26,081
his education was very disrupted.
662
00:39:26,081 --> 00:39:28,126
He was largely self-taught
663
00:39:28,126 --> 00:39:30,037
or tutored by relatives.
664
00:39:30,037 --> 00:39:32,702
He never formally learned the alphabet
665
00:39:32,702 --> 00:39:36,869
or even multiplication
beyond the Five times table.
666
00:39:39,092 --> 00:39:42,264
But like Alan Turing,
Mandelbrot had a gift
667
00:39:42,264 --> 00:39:44,787
for seeing nature's hidden patterns.
668
00:39:44,787 --> 00:39:49,007
He could see rules where
the rest of us see anarchy.
669
00:39:49,007 --> 00:39:51,154
He could see form and structure
670
00:39:51,154 --> 00:39:54,157
where the rest of us just
see a shapeless mess.
671
00:39:54,157 --> 00:39:56,554
And above all, he could see that a strange
672
00:39:56,554 --> 00:40:00,721
new kind of mathematics
underpin the whole of nature.
673
00:40:04,677 --> 00:40:07,598
Mandelbrot's lifelong quest was to find
674
00:40:07,598 --> 00:40:10,790
a simple mathematical basis for the rough
675
00:40:10,790 --> 00:40:14,040
and irregular shapes of the real world.
676
00:40:16,734 --> 00:40:18,508
- Mandelbrot was working for IBM,
677
00:40:18,508 --> 00:40:22,015
and he was not in the
normal academic environment.
678
00:40:22,015 --> 00:40:23,984
And he was working on a
whole pile of different
679
00:40:23,984 --> 00:40:27,278
problems about irregularities in nature,
680
00:40:27,278 --> 00:40:30,042
in the financial markets,
all over the place.
681
00:40:30,042 --> 00:40:32,141
And I think at some point it dawned on him
682
00:40:32,141 --> 00:40:34,038
that everything he was doing seemed to be
683
00:40:34,038 --> 00:40:37,100
really parts of the same big picture.
684
00:40:37,100 --> 00:40:41,494
And he was a sufficiently
original and unusual person
685
00:40:41,494 --> 00:40:44,200
that he'd realized that
pursuing this big picture
686
00:40:44,200 --> 00:40:47,402
was what he really wanted to do.
687
00:40:47,402 --> 00:40:49,096
- [Jim] To Mandelbrot, it seemed perverse
688
00:40:49,096 --> 00:40:51,566
that mathematicians have spent centuries
689
00:40:51,566 --> 00:40:55,002
contemplating idealized
shapes like straight lines
690
00:40:55,002 --> 00:40:57,966
or perfect circles, and yet had no proper
691
00:40:57,966 --> 00:41:00,744
or systematic way of describing the rough
692
00:41:00,744 --> 00:41:04,911
and imperfect shapes that
dominate the real world.
693
00:41:06,929 --> 00:41:08,346
Take this pebble.
694
00:41:09,397 --> 00:41:11,480
Is it a sphere or a cube?
695
00:41:12,719 --> 00:41:14,636
Or maybe a bit of both?
696
00:41:15,584 --> 00:41:18,091
And what about something much bigger?
697
00:41:18,091 --> 00:41:20,230
Look at the arch behind me.
698
00:41:20,230 --> 00:41:23,628
From a distance, it
looks like a semi-circle.
699
00:41:23,628 --> 00:41:27,795
But up close, we'll see
that it's bent and crooked.
700
00:41:28,860 --> 00:41:30,527
So what shape is it?
701
00:41:34,667 --> 00:41:37,135
Mandelbrot asked if
there's something unique
702
00:41:37,135 --> 00:41:40,797
that defines all the
varied shapes in nature.
703
00:41:40,797 --> 00:41:43,102
Do the fluffy surfaces of clouds,
704
00:41:43,102 --> 00:41:45,638
the branches and trees and rivers,
705
00:41:45,638 --> 00:41:48,010
the crinkled edges of shorelines
706
00:41:48,010 --> 00:41:51,107
share a common mathematical feature?
707
00:41:51,107 --> 00:41:52,274
Well, they do.
708
00:41:54,012 --> 00:41:57,475
Underlying nearly all the
shapes in the natural world
709
00:41:57,475 --> 00:42:01,642
is a mathematical principle
known as self similarity.
710
00:42:02,847 --> 00:42:05,748
This describes anything
in which the same shape
711
00:42:05,748 --> 00:42:08,692
is repeated over and over again
712
00:42:08,692 --> 00:42:11,192
at smaller and smaller scales.
713
00:42:13,046 --> 00:42:16,231
A great example are the branches of trees.
714
00:42:16,231 --> 00:42:18,209
They fork and fork again
715
00:42:18,209 --> 00:42:21,445
repeating that simple
process over and over
716
00:42:21,445 --> 00:42:23,945
at smaller and smaller scales.
717
00:42:26,358 --> 00:42:29,024
The same branching principles applied
718
00:42:29,024 --> 00:42:31,221
in the structure of our lungs,
719
00:42:31,221 --> 00:42:33,166
and the way our blood vessels are
720
00:42:33,166 --> 00:42:36,577
distributed throughout our body.
721
00:42:36,577 --> 00:42:38,446
It's even described how rivers
722
00:42:38,446 --> 00:42:41,113
split into ever smaller streams.
723
00:42:41,982 --> 00:42:46,149
And nature can repeat all
sorts of shapes in this way.
724
00:42:47,492 --> 00:42:50,397
Look at this Romanesco Broccoli.
725
00:42:50,397 --> 00:42:52,918
It's overall structure
is made up of a series
726
00:42:52,918 --> 00:42:57,001
of repeating cones at
smaller and smaller scales.
727
00:42:59,170 --> 00:43:02,996
Mandelbrot realized self
similarity was the basis
728
00:43:02,996 --> 00:43:06,526
of an entirely new kind of geometry.
729
00:43:06,526 --> 00:43:08,896
And he even gave it a name:
730
00:43:08,896 --> 00:43:09,729
fractal.
731
00:43:11,738 --> 00:43:14,662
Now that's a pretty neat observation.
732
00:43:14,662 --> 00:43:16,798
But what if you could
represent this property
733
00:43:16,798 --> 00:43:19,324
of nature in mathematics?
734
00:43:19,324 --> 00:43:22,714
What if you could capture its
essence to draw a picture?
735
00:43:22,714 --> 00:43:25,006
What would that picture look like?
736
00:43:25,006 --> 00:43:28,650
Could you use a simple
set of mathematical rules
737
00:43:28,650 --> 00:43:32,443
to draw an image that
didn't look man-made?
738
00:43:32,443 --> 00:43:34,884
The answer would come from Mandelbrot,
739
00:43:34,884 --> 00:43:38,354
who had take a job at
IBM in the late 1950s
740
00:43:38,354 --> 00:43:41,653
to gain access to its
incredible computing power
741
00:43:41,653 --> 00:43:46,526
and pursue his obsession with
the mathematics of nature.
742
00:43:46,526 --> 00:43:49,575
Armed with a new breed of supercomputer,
743
00:43:49,575 --> 00:43:52,646
he began investigating a rather curious
744
00:43:52,646 --> 00:43:55,493
and strangely simple-looking equation
745
00:43:55,493 --> 00:43:59,493
that could be used to
draw a very unusual shape.
746
00:44:00,376 --> 00:44:01,945
What I'm about to show you
747
00:44:01,945 --> 00:44:05,444
is one of the most remarkable
mathematical images
748
00:44:05,444 --> 00:44:07,556
ever discovered.
749
00:44:07,556 --> 00:44:11,085
Epic doesn't really do it justice.
750
00:44:11,085 --> 00:44:13,335
This is the Mandelbrot set.
751
00:44:14,688 --> 00:44:18,138
It's been called the thumbprint of God.
752
00:44:18,138 --> 00:44:19,820
And when we begin to explore it,
753
00:44:19,820 --> 00:44:21,653
you'll understand why.
754
00:44:31,923 --> 00:44:34,603
Just as with the tree or the broccoli,
755
00:44:34,603 --> 00:44:36,936
the closer you study this picture,
756
00:44:36,936 --> 00:44:38,936
the more detail you see.
757
00:44:42,856 --> 00:44:45,015
Each shape within the step contains
758
00:44:45,015 --> 00:44:48,016
an infinite number of smaller shapes,
759
00:44:48,016 --> 00:44:51,099
baby Mandelbrots, that go on forever.
760
00:44:56,851 --> 00:44:58,955
Yet all this complexity stems from
761
00:44:58,955 --> 00:45:01,955
just one incredibly simple equation.
762
00:45:03,004 --> 00:45:06,568
This equation has a
very important property.
763
00:45:06,568 --> 00:45:08,568
It feeds back on itself.
764
00:45:10,148 --> 00:45:13,086
Like a video loop, each output
765
00:45:13,086 --> 00:45:15,669
becomes the input for next set.
766
00:45:19,525 --> 00:45:22,462
This feedback means that
an incredibly simple
767
00:45:22,462 --> 00:45:24,783
mathematical equation can produce
768
00:45:24,783 --> 00:45:27,533
a picture of infinite complexity.
769
00:45:44,684 --> 00:45:46,525
The really fascinating thing
770
00:45:46,525 --> 00:45:48,297
is that the Mandelbrot set
771
00:45:48,297 --> 00:45:51,867
isn't just a bizarre mathematical quirk.
772
00:45:51,867 --> 00:45:55,791
Its fractal property of
being similar at all scales
773
00:45:55,791 --> 00:45:59,958
mirrors fundamental order,
in principle, in nature.
774
00:46:05,710 --> 00:46:08,402
Turing's patterns, Belousov's reactions,
775
00:46:08,402 --> 00:46:11,985
and Mandelbrot's fractals
are all signposts
776
00:46:11,985 --> 00:46:15,985
pointing to a deep
underlying natural principle.
777
00:46:19,489 --> 00:46:21,394
- When we look at complexities in nature,
778
00:46:21,394 --> 00:46:23,799
we tend to ask where did they come from.
779
00:46:23,799 --> 00:46:25,650
There is something in our heads that says
780
00:46:25,650 --> 00:46:29,216
complexity does not
arise out of simplicity;
781
00:46:29,216 --> 00:46:31,214
it must arise from something complicated
782
00:46:31,214 --> 00:46:33,423
with conserved complexity.
783
00:46:33,423 --> 00:46:35,289
But what the mathematics
in this whole area
784
00:46:35,289 --> 00:46:37,816
is telling us is that very simple rules
785
00:46:37,816 --> 00:46:40,830
naturally give rise to
very complex objects.
786
00:46:40,830 --> 00:46:43,191
And so if you look at the
object, it looks complex,
787
00:46:43,191 --> 00:46:45,333
and you think about the
rule that generates it,
788
00:46:45,333 --> 00:46:46,459
it's simple.
789
00:46:46,459 --> 00:46:48,882
So the same thing is
both complex and simple
790
00:46:48,882 --> 00:46:50,601
from two different points of view.
791
00:46:50,601 --> 00:46:52,825
And that means we have
to rethink completely
792
00:46:52,825 --> 00:46:56,742
the relation between
simplicity and complexity.
793
00:46:59,115 --> 00:47:03,851
- [Jim] Complex systems can
be based on simple rules.
794
00:47:03,851 --> 00:47:06,725
That's the big revelation.
795
00:47:06,725 --> 00:47:09,142
And it's an astonishing idea.
796
00:47:10,322 --> 00:47:13,405
It seems to apply all over our world.
797
00:47:23,895 --> 00:47:25,781
Look at the flock of birds.
798
00:47:25,781 --> 00:47:29,263
Each bird obeys very simple rules.
799
00:47:29,263 --> 00:47:30,970
But the flock as a whole
800
00:47:30,970 --> 00:47:33,863
does incredibly complicated things.
801
00:47:33,863 --> 00:47:37,089
Avoiding obstacles, navigating the planet
802
00:47:37,089 --> 00:47:40,839
with no single leader
or even conscious plan.
803
00:47:42,419 --> 00:47:45,360
But amazing though this
flock's behavior is,
804
00:47:45,360 --> 00:47:49,598
it's impossible to predict
how it will behave.
805
00:47:49,598 --> 00:47:52,551
It never repeats exactly what it does,
806
00:47:52,551 --> 00:47:56,051
even in seemingly identical circumstances.
807
00:47:58,862 --> 00:48:01,849
It's just like the Belousov reaction.
808
00:48:01,849 --> 00:48:04,488
Each time you run it,
the patterns produced
809
00:48:04,488 --> 00:48:06,556
are slightly different.
810
00:48:06,556 --> 00:48:10,737
They may look similar but
they are never identical.
811
00:48:10,737 --> 00:48:14,654
The same is true of video
loops and sand dunes.
812
00:48:15,987 --> 00:48:18,865
We know they'll produce a
certain kind of pattern,
813
00:48:18,865 --> 00:48:22,032
but we can't predict the exact shapes.
814
00:48:26,239 --> 00:48:29,595
The big question is can nature's ability
815
00:48:29,595 --> 00:48:32,291
to turn simplicity into complexity
816
00:48:32,291 --> 00:48:35,689
in this mysterious and unpredictable way
817
00:48:35,689 --> 00:48:37,689
explain why life exists?
818
00:48:39,573 --> 00:48:43,304
Can it explain how a
universe full of simple dust
819
00:48:43,304 --> 00:48:45,554
can turn into human beings?
820
00:48:47,124 --> 00:48:50,791
How inanimate matter
can spawn intelligence?
821
00:48:52,610 --> 00:48:54,404
At first you might think that this is
822
00:48:54,404 --> 00:48:56,769
beyond the remit of science.
823
00:48:56,769 --> 00:48:59,774
If nature's rules are
really unpredictable,
824
00:48:59,774 --> 00:49:02,009
should we simply give up?
825
00:49:02,009 --> 00:49:05,676
Absolutely not. In fact,
quite the opposite.
826
00:49:07,732 --> 00:49:09,985
Fittingly, the answer to this problem
827
00:49:09,985 --> 00:49:12,812
lies in the natural world.
828
00:49:12,812 --> 00:49:15,438
All around us there exists a process
829
00:49:15,438 --> 00:49:19,385
that's engineered these
unpredictable complex systems
830
00:49:19,385 --> 00:49:23,552
and hones them to perform
almost miraculous tasks.
831
00:49:25,510 --> 00:49:28,177
The process is called evolution.
832
00:49:30,613 --> 00:49:33,774
- Evolution has built on these patterns,
833
00:49:33,774 --> 00:49:36,356
it's taken them as the raw ingredients.
834
00:49:36,356 --> 00:49:39,613
It's combined them
together in various ways,
835
00:49:39,613 --> 00:49:43,243
experimented to see what
works and what doesn't,
836
00:49:43,243 --> 00:49:45,981
kept the things that do work,
837
00:49:45,981 --> 00:49:47,644
and then built on that.
838
00:49:47,644 --> 00:49:49,530
It's a completely unconscious process,
839
00:49:49,530 --> 00:49:52,401
but basically that's what's happening.
840
00:49:52,401 --> 00:49:55,299
- [Jim] Everywhere you
look, you can see evolution
841
00:49:55,299 --> 00:49:59,070
using nature's self organizing patterns.
842
00:49:59,070 --> 00:50:01,734
Our hearts use the Belousov-type reactions
843
00:50:01,734 --> 00:50:04,167
to regulate how they beat.
844
00:50:04,167 --> 00:50:08,199
Our blood vessels are
organized like fractals.
845
00:50:08,199 --> 00:50:12,366
Even our brain cells interact
according to simple rules.
846
00:50:14,278 --> 00:50:18,547
The way evolution refines
and enriches complex systems
847
00:50:18,547 --> 00:50:22,714
is one of the most intriguing
ideas in recent science.
848
00:50:25,787 --> 00:50:28,547
- My interest in my Ph.D.
research in complex systems
849
00:50:28,547 --> 00:50:31,964
was to see how complex systems
interact with evolution.
850
00:50:31,964 --> 00:50:34,192
So on the one hand, you have systems that
851
00:50:34,192 --> 00:50:36,964
almost organize themselves
as complex systems.
852
00:50:36,964 --> 00:50:39,710
So they exhibit order
that you wouldn't expect.
853
00:50:39,710 --> 00:50:42,544
But on the other hand, you
still have to have evolution
854
00:50:42,544 --> 00:50:44,408
interact with that to create something
855
00:50:44,408 --> 00:50:47,475
that is truly adapted to the environment.
856
00:50:47,475 --> 00:50:50,728
- [Jim] Evolution's
mindless, yet creative, power
857
00:50:50,728 --> 00:50:53,579
to develop and shape complex systems
858
00:50:53,579 --> 00:50:55,329
is indeed incredible.
859
00:50:57,232 --> 00:51:00,482
But it operates on a cosmic time scale.
860
00:51:01,915 --> 00:51:05,315
From the first life on
Earth to us walking about
861
00:51:05,315 --> 00:51:09,482
took in the region of 3 1/2 billion years.
862
00:51:10,817 --> 00:51:12,769
But we now have in our hands
863
00:51:12,769 --> 00:51:15,078
a device that can mimic this process
864
00:51:15,078 --> 00:51:17,411
on a much shorter timescale.
865
00:51:18,464 --> 00:51:21,530
What is the invention I'm talking about?
866
00:51:21,530 --> 00:51:22,818
Well there's a good chance you've been
867
00:51:22,818 --> 00:51:25,485
sitting in front of one all day.
868
00:51:26,993 --> 00:51:29,576
It is, of course, the computer.
869
00:51:35,387 --> 00:51:37,417
Computers today can churn through
870
00:51:37,417 --> 00:51:40,445
trillions of calculations per second.
871
00:51:40,445 --> 00:51:44,813
And that gives them the power
to do something very special.
872
00:51:44,813 --> 00:51:47,146
They can simulate evolution.
873
00:51:49,006 --> 00:51:51,851
More precisely, computers
can use the principles
874
00:51:51,851 --> 00:51:56,266
of evolution to shape and
refine their own program
875
00:51:56,266 --> 00:51:59,123
in the same way the natural
world uses evolution
876
00:51:59,123 --> 00:52:02,206
to shape and refine living organisms.
877
00:52:03,517 --> 00:52:06,422
And today, computer scientists find that
878
00:52:06,422 --> 00:52:09,665
this evolved software can solve problems
879
00:52:09,665 --> 00:52:13,332
that would be beyond
the smartest of humans.
880
00:52:14,174 --> 00:52:16,081
- One thing that we
found, and particularly in
881
00:52:16,081 --> 00:52:17,952
our original research, is how powerful
882
00:52:17,952 --> 00:52:21,129
evolution is as a system, as an algorithm
883
00:52:21,129 --> 00:52:23,096
to create something that is very complex,
884
00:52:23,096 --> 00:52:26,180
and to create something
that is very adaptive.
885
00:52:26,180 --> 00:52:28,157
- [Jim] Swarston and his team's goal
886
00:52:28,157 --> 00:52:32,106
was nothing less than to
use computerized evolution
887
00:52:32,106 --> 00:52:36,273
to create a virtual brain that
would control a virtual body.
888
00:52:38,267 --> 00:52:42,636
To begin with, they
created 100 random brains.
889
00:52:42,636 --> 00:52:46,767
As you can see, they weren't up to much.
890
00:52:46,767 --> 00:52:49,438
Evolution then took over.
891
00:52:49,438 --> 00:52:51,665
The computer selected the brain
892
00:52:51,665 --> 00:52:55,458
that was slightly better
at moving their bodies,
893
00:52:55,458 --> 00:52:57,291
and got them to breed.
894
00:52:59,257 --> 00:53:01,275
- The algorithm then
takes those individuals
895
00:53:01,275 --> 00:53:05,442
that do the best, and then
allows them to create offspring.
896
00:53:06,564 --> 00:53:09,195
- [Jim] The best movers
of the next generation
897
00:53:09,195 --> 00:53:12,695
were then bred together, and so on and on.
898
00:53:13,587 --> 00:53:17,104
Amazingly, after just 10 generations,
899
00:53:17,104 --> 00:53:19,701
although they're still a bit unsteady,
900
00:53:19,701 --> 00:53:21,618
the figures could walk.
901
00:53:22,537 --> 00:53:24,027
- Eventually, miraculously,
902
00:53:24,027 --> 00:53:27,026
you actually end up with
something that works.
903
00:53:27,026 --> 00:53:28,662
The slightly scary thing is you don't know
904
00:53:28,662 --> 00:53:30,176
why it works and how it works.
905
00:53:30,176 --> 00:53:31,717
You look at that brain,
906
00:53:31,717 --> 00:53:33,811
and you have no idea
actually what's going on,
907
00:53:33,811 --> 00:53:37,894
because evolution has
optimized it automatically.
908
00:53:40,170 --> 00:53:42,143
- [Jim] In 20 generations,
909
00:53:42,143 --> 00:53:44,226
evolution had turned this
910
00:53:45,373 --> 00:53:46,206
into this.
911
00:53:49,812 --> 00:53:52,140
But these evolved computer beings
912
00:53:52,140 --> 00:53:54,973
soon went far beyond just walking.
913
00:53:58,183 --> 00:54:00,586
They evolved to do things that really are
914
00:54:00,586 --> 00:54:03,669
impossible to program conventionally.
915
00:54:06,621 --> 00:54:10,977
They react realistically
to unexpected events,
916
00:54:10,977 --> 00:54:13,560
like being hit or falling over.
917
00:54:17,831 --> 00:54:19,671
- Even though we programmed
these algorithms,
918
00:54:19,671 --> 00:54:22,401
what actually then happens
when it unfolds live
919
00:54:22,401 --> 00:54:23,661
we don't control anymore.
920
00:54:23,661 --> 00:54:26,010
And things happen that we never expected.
921
00:54:26,010 --> 00:54:27,816
And it's quite a funny feeling that you
922
00:54:27,816 --> 00:54:31,983
create these algorithms,
but they do their own thing.
923
00:54:37,912 --> 00:54:40,509
- [Jim] An unthinking
process of evolutionary
924
00:54:40,509 --> 00:54:44,738
trial and error had created
these virtual creatures
925
00:54:44,738 --> 00:54:47,821
that can move and react in real time.
926
00:54:52,748 --> 00:54:55,035
What we're seeing here is fantastic
927
00:54:55,035 --> 00:54:58,599
experimental evidence
for the creative power
928
00:54:58,599 --> 00:55:01,349
of systems based on simple rules.
929
00:55:06,500 --> 00:55:09,417
(soft piano music)
930
00:55:11,620 --> 00:55:14,337
Watching how computers can unconsciously
931
00:55:14,337 --> 00:55:16,744
evolve programs to do things that
932
00:55:16,744 --> 00:55:19,943
no human could consciously program
933
00:55:19,943 --> 00:55:22,541
is a fantastic example of the power
934
00:55:22,541 --> 00:55:24,291
of self organization.
935
00:55:25,543 --> 00:55:28,611
It demonstrates that evolution is itself
936
00:55:28,611 --> 00:55:31,932
just like the other
systems we've encountered;
937
00:55:31,932 --> 00:55:35,327
one based on simple rules and feedback,
938
00:55:35,327 --> 00:55:38,994
from which complexity
spontaneously emerges.
939
00:55:40,047 --> 00:55:41,865
Think about it.
940
00:55:41,865 --> 00:55:45,719
The simple rule is that
the organism must replicate
941
00:55:45,719 --> 00:55:49,747
with a few random mutations now and again.
942
00:55:49,747 --> 00:55:53,511
The feedback comes from the environment
943
00:55:53,511 --> 00:55:57,666
which favors the mutations
that are best suited to it.
944
00:55:57,666 --> 00:56:01,386
The result is ever-increasing complexity,
945
00:56:01,386 --> 00:56:04,303
produced without thought or design.
946
00:56:06,130 --> 00:56:08,061
- The interesting thing
is that we can move up
947
00:56:08,061 --> 00:56:10,403
to a higher level of organization.
948
00:56:10,403 --> 00:56:14,256
Once you have organisms that
actually have patterns on them,
949
00:56:14,256 --> 00:56:17,780
these can be selected
for or selected against
950
00:56:17,780 --> 00:56:20,839
by process which are
essentially feedbacks.
951
00:56:20,839 --> 00:56:24,693
And so evolution itself,
the whole Darwinian scheme,
952
00:56:24,693 --> 00:56:26,693
is in sense Turing again
953
00:56:27,984 --> 00:56:32,763
with feedbacks happening
through different processes.
954
00:56:32,763 --> 00:56:35,613
- [Jim] And that's the
essence of this story.
955
00:56:35,613 --> 00:56:37,965
Unthinking, simple rules
956
00:56:37,965 --> 00:56:41,723
have the power to create
amazingly complex systems
957
00:56:41,723 --> 00:56:44,223
without any conscious thought.
958
00:56:45,262 --> 00:56:48,407
In that sense, these computer beings
959
00:56:48,407 --> 00:56:50,839
are self-organized systems
960
00:56:50,839 --> 00:56:52,689
just like the one Belousov observed
961
00:56:52,689 --> 00:56:54,939
happening in his chemicals;
962
00:56:55,958 --> 00:56:58,431
just like the ones in sand dunes
963
00:56:58,431 --> 00:57:00,222
and the Mandelbrot sets,
964
00:57:00,222 --> 00:57:02,904
in our lungs, our hearts,
965
00:57:02,904 --> 00:57:07,264
in weather, and in the
geography of our planet.
966
00:57:07,264 --> 00:57:11,431
Design does not need an
active interfering designer.
967
00:57:13,097 --> 00:57:16,264
It's an inherent part of the universe.
968
00:57:20,179 --> 00:57:22,610
- One of the things that
makes people so uncomfortable
969
00:57:22,610 --> 00:57:24,251
about this idea of, if you will,
970
00:57:24,251 --> 00:57:26,400
spontaneous pattern formation
971
00:57:26,400 --> 00:57:30,182
is that somehow or other
you don't need a creator
972
00:57:30,182 --> 00:57:33,249
but perhaps a really clever designer.
973
00:57:33,249 --> 00:57:35,839
What you would do is to
kind of treat the universe
974
00:57:35,839 --> 00:57:37,728
like a giant simulation,
975
00:57:37,728 --> 00:57:40,005
where you set some initial condition
976
00:57:40,005 --> 00:57:43,506
and just let the whole
thing spontaneously happen
977
00:57:43,506 --> 00:57:47,089
in all of its wonder
and all if its beauty.
978
00:57:48,167 --> 00:57:49,835
- The mathematics of pattern formation
979
00:57:49,835 --> 00:57:53,543
shows that the same kind
of pattern can show up
980
00:57:53,543 --> 00:57:56,247
in an enormous range
of different physical,
981
00:57:56,247 --> 00:57:58,309
chemical, biological systems.
982
00:57:58,309 --> 00:58:00,108
Somewhere deep down inside, it's happening
983
00:58:00,108 --> 00:58:02,859
for the same mathematical reason.
984
00:58:02,859 --> 00:58:05,395
Implicit in those facts
985
00:58:05,395 --> 00:58:08,703
are these beautiful patterns
that we see everywhere.
986
00:58:08,703 --> 00:58:12,120
This, I think, is a mind-blowing thought.
987
00:58:21,621 --> 00:58:23,812
- So what is the ultimate lesson
988
00:58:23,812 --> 00:58:26,132
we can take from all this?
989
00:58:26,132 --> 00:58:29,324
Well, it's that all the
complexity of the universe,
990
00:58:29,324 --> 00:58:31,624
all its infinite richness,
991
00:58:31,624 --> 00:58:34,818
emerges from mindless simple rules
992
00:58:34,818 --> 00:58:37,693
repeated over and over again.
993
00:58:37,693 --> 00:58:40,886
But remember, powerful
though this process is,
994
00:58:40,886 --> 00:58:44,332
it's also inherently unpredictable.
995
00:58:44,332 --> 00:58:46,968
So, although I can confidently tell you
996
00:58:46,968 --> 00:58:49,714
that the future will be amazing,
997
00:58:49,714 --> 00:58:53,384
I can also say with scientific certainty
998
00:58:53,384 --> 00:58:56,891
that I have no idea what it holds.
999
00:58:56,891 --> 00:58:59,808
(soft piano music)
74830
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