Original subtitles

I think there are a lot of people who do

not like what I'm saying. I am one of

the most polarizing figures in the world

right now. But, I'm trying to prepare

everyone. And what I want to explain

[music] to you today, Stephen, is why

the world is collapsing. Because, having

studied patterns of history and global

supply chains, I now recognize and I

have a framework to predict the future.

And I brought to you three qualified

predictions structured around 9/11.

>> So, what are your predictions? I've been

dying to know.

>> My first prediction, if there is another

9/11 attack, it will be an attack on the

US financial infrastructure. Imagine one

day you open your iPhone and you're

looking to buy a coffee. And all the

money in your bank account has been

wiped out. And they don't know when or

how long it will take them to retrieve

it. I believe that's what [music] makes

Americans most vulnerable and therefore

the most easily traumatized.

>> What's prediction number two?

>> Is that Lionel Messi will become

president of Argentina.

>> Oh, wow. I wasn't expecting that. And

also, do you think Trump is going to

have a third term? [music]

>> Let's take a friendly bet and say $100

Trump gets a third term. To be a siege

on New York City. Prediction three. My

third prediction is that

>> Are you sure? You don't think that the

US would actually do that though?

>> Well, I understand a lot of this is

going to be extremely pessimistic, but

we are living in a time of not just war,

but also the regression of civilization.

We basically [music] hit the height of

technological advancement.

>> The word collapse you used there is a

strong word.

>> Yes. I am positive that we are seeing

the collapse of civilization. All the

stuff that we have might have seen on

television, it is coming to us in our

lives. And the world is essentially

running out of time. And I will paint a

clear and simple picture of what is

about to come.

>> What would have to be the case for none

of these sort of catastrophic things to

take place?

>> Well, the only thing that gives me hope

is

>> Before this episode starts, I have a

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and enjoy this episode.

Professor Chung,

what is front of mind for you at the

moment? Your energy is giving me

something's on my mind. What is that?

>> I think

that we are

living in

a a time when

the world is collapsing.

And so, what I want to explain to you

today, Stephen, is how we got to the

world that we are in

and why it is collapsing.

So, first thing I want to explain to you

is the um

petrodollar system,

which is the basis for the global

economy.

So, let's go back to the year 1945. And

this is the end of World War II.

The United States is dominant.

The United States

will manufacture

goods for Europe and for Japan, which

were destroyed in World War II. So, what

the United States said is, "We will lend

you

the US dollars in order to purchase

the goods that we will export to you,

but you have to promise to pay us back

in gold." And

the United States became complacent.

They were spending money they shouldn't

have been spending. The United States

went from a creditor nation to a

debtor nation. So, in the year 1971,

Richard Nixon

said

that the US dollar would no longer be

pegged to the gold. And so, the question

now was, "If the US dollar

is no longer pegged to gold, then what

is the value of the US dollar?"

So, Richard Nixon had to create demand

for the US dollar. And so, three things

happened

after the something called the Nixon

shock, 1971 Nixon shock. Okay? So, the

first was the creation of a petrodollar.

So,

Saudi Arabia and other countries in the

Middle East agreed to sell their oil

only in US dollars.

So, if you want to buy oil, energy, you

need US dollars. Late '70s, early '80s,

China said the same thing. If you want

our cheap manufactured goods, you have

to pay in US dollars.

Mid-'80s, was something called the Plaza

Accord, where Japan agreed

to

take all its savings

and buy US Treasuries.

>> So, it's essentially they're buying a a

promise

from the US.

>> All this is based on promises, right?

The US dollar is a contract.

It's a promise. China promises to give

you manufactured goods, and Saudi Arabia

promises to give you oil.

This system, the petrodollar system,

create the world that we live in today.

So, let me explain why.

All right.

So,

this is a

semiconductor,

all right? And it's the basis of all

technology, of all computer.

And there are three critical elements

in a semiconductor. Silicon,

they are gallium,

and they are

germanium. Okay? There are many more

elements, but these are the three most

critical.

And these three together

allow uh semiconductors to achieve

almost impossible

technology. For example, precision

missiles, satellite communication are

based on these three elements working

together.

Why we have these three elements in

place is because of this global system.

Because

silicon is

mainly manufactured in China. About

60-70% of the world's silicon comes from

China.

70% of gallium comes from China. 90% of

the world's germanium comes from China.

Now, for semiconductors to work,

the process is this. The United States,

mainly in California,

Nvidia or Apple, they will design very

advanced

semiconductor chips to power the iPhone,

to power video games.

Then the United States will send this

chip design over to Taiwan and Malaysia

for the manufacture of these chips.

The Netherlands and Japan will create

machines to print out these

semiconductors. So, a company in the

Netherlands called ASML,

they manufacture lithography machines

that are worth $400 million each. Then

these lithography machines and the chip

design go to Taiwan, primarily Taiwan

but also Malaysia as well, in order to

manufacture these chips. Then these

chips are then sent to China to be put

into appliances.

So, when you see this

semiconductor, you're not just seeing a

piece of metal and plastic. You're

really seeing the world converging

together. So, I want you to remember

this formula. And this will help us

explain how how world works. This

formula is very simple.

Technological progress

is correlated with

specialization

times globalization.

This is the formula.

Okay. So, it's very simple. All

technological technological progress is

premised on more countries being able to

specialize

and these countries being able to trade

freely with each other. And what makes

this all possible is

global trade. That is supported by two

things. The first, of course, is the US

dollar.

The second thing that's most important

is is the US military hegemony. Hegemony

meaning meaning there there are no peer

competitor. There is no one who can

challenge the United States in control

of the seas.

>> So, you're coming now to the point of

why you think cuz the the claim at the

top was that the world is collapsing.

>> Exactly. I bring this all up because we

need to appreciate what technological

innovation is.

If technological technological

innovation is specialization times

globalization,

then we are living at a time of not just

war,

but also the regression of civilization.

So, in other words, my argument to you

today is

we've basically hit the apex,

the height

of technological advancement.

We cannot go any further

because in order for technology to

progress, you need greater

specialization and you need greater

globalization.

But what we're seeing right now is this

war in Iran. It will cause a chain of

events that will force all nations to

become much more general. Okay? So,

you'll see a decline in specialization.

They'll become much more nationalistic.

They will need to create self-sufficient

supply chains. So, you will see a

decline in globalization and therefore

technology, the progress will have to

decline.

>> The word collapse you used there was a

strong word.

>> Yes.

>> Is that the word you meant?

>> That's exactly the word I meant.

We are living not through World War III.

We are not living through a shifting of

the global order. We are We will live

through over next 20 years the collapse

of civilization itself.

>> The collapse of civilization itself.

>> Yes.

>> Are you sure?

>> I am positive that we are seeing

um the collapse of civilization.

>> Give me some definition around the

collapse of civilization because people

could infer that as oh, you know, the

the dollar's not going to be as strong

or they could say, "Okay, we're not

going to innovate as much." Or I don't

know if your prices are going to go up.

But the collapse of civilization.

>> Yes. So, let's go back to World War II.

Okay?

In World War II, if you lived in Europe

or Asia, it really seemed like the end

of the world.

Tens of millions of people died in that

war.

But at the same time, you had a

superpower

that was emerging, the United States of

America. So, at the end of World War II,

America was so powerful that it was able

at the end of World War II to create a

new world order and basically finance

and defend this new world order called

Pax Americana. And we are seeing the

last days of Pax Americana.

And then you ask yourself, "Well, then

let China emerge or maybe Russia will

emerge or maybe Israel will will emerge

to replace Pax Americana."

And unfortunately,

what we know is that

systems in decline, empires in decline,

do not go willingly. Okay? So, the

historical analogy I would use is the

Bronze Age collapse. Because the Bronze

Age was very similar to this period in

our history when the entire world was

globalized. Because in order to make

bronze, you needed both copper and tin.

And these places were found in different

places of the world. And that allowed

for global integration. But because of

global in- in- integration,

over time, you that led to massive

inequality, debt, and polarization. And

so, when the system collapsed, the

entire world collapsed. So, I I would

argue the closest historical analogy

that we have

um to to today is a Bronze Age collapse.

>> What was life like in the Bronze Age

collapse? Or how was it different

pre-Bronze Age collapse versus

post-Bronze Age collapse?

>> So, during the Bronze Age collapse,

what happened was

there's a perfect series of crises that

caused systematic collapse. Okay? The

first was

change in weather patterns. Climate

changed.

Which led to famine, primarily in

Europe. Okay? When you have famine and

people are starving, what do people do?

They migrate. Okay? They migrate to

areas that have food. And that this

place is primarily going to be Anatolia

and Egypt.

These

migrants

overwhelm

the systems of Egypt and Anatolia.

And this would cause a cascading effect

where the entire world lost order.

These migrants were called the Sea

Peoples.

And they were destroying traditional

hierarchies

and authorities.

And once that happened, then the very

fundamental elements of civilization

disappear.

So, if we apply

this analogy to today, then I'm going to

paint for you a scenario

uh of what might happen. All right? So,

we have this war in the Middle East that

is only expanding. It's bringing in

more and more countries.

So,

as you may know,

um since we last spoke,

basically all of Iran's proxies have

been brought into the war. This includes

the Houthis,

which occupies this part of Yemen.

>> See, the Houthis are a group of um

military that are in favor of Iran.

>> The Houthis

are an ethnic group

in Yemen. And Yemen is a country that is

divided according to tribes. The thing

about the Houthis is, first of all, they

live in the mountains. So, it's almost

impossible to dislodge the Houthis.

Saudi Arabia tried for 5 years. It

didn't work. The other thing about the

Houthis is they are a Shia

tribe people. Now, there's Shia Muslim

and there's Sunni Muslim. The vast

majority of Muslim in the world are

Sunni, about 90% of the entire global

Muslim population. The Shia are about

10%.

And as a result, because they're in the

the minority, the Shia are much more

fanatical

than the Sunni.

And this has always been historically

true. They believe in martyrdom. So, in

other words, uh the the Houthis will

fight to the death. They're not afraid

of death.

Okay? And the third thing about the

Houthis that we need to appreciate is

they control this critical

choke point called the Bab el-Mandab

Strait. This is This is the Red Sea.

So, a lot of trade has to go through

the Red Sea. Now, what we know is

Iran has already closed off the Strait

of Hormuz.

And the easiest

and cheapest way for Saudi Arabia to get

its oil to East Asia and South South

Asia

is

by the sea.

So, Saudi Arabia cannot actually

transport its oil.

Okay? So, that's the first group that is

now involved in this water, Houthis.

Then you have

Hezbollah. Okay? Which is in Lebanon.

Right here.

>> [snorts]

>> And they are now fighting Israel.

Hezbollah is also a Shia group. So, they

are also very fanatical. And then you

also have Iraq,

the Shia militias that are basically

their own independent militaries.

So, all four are have been brought into

the war by Iran.

You have the Houthis, you have

Hezbollah, you have the Shia militia in

Iraq. Why is this important? Because

they span the entire Middle East.

And so, we are now seeing expansion of

the war. And over time, what might

happen is more and more nations have

been brought into the war to protect

their own interests.

>> How is this different from, you know, I

grew up with this Iraq war?

>> Mhm.

>> And there was lots of conflict in the

Middle East. There was always fighting

going on and it's It feels like it's

been a function of my of my childhood is

that the Middle East is always fighting

in some capacity somewhere.

And it, you know, eventually

there's a peace in Iraq and the war kind

of stops and ISIS is decapitated or

whatever and it just kind of moves

around a little bit.

>> Yeah. Great question. But what's

happening today is very different from

just 2003. 2003, the United States went

in to get decapitate Saddam Hussein and

his government. And that was easy to do

because you had a government

that was not very popular

amongst uh the people.

So, America specializes in shock and awe

military tactics.

The problem today is you have four

different groups. You have the IRGC in

Iran.

You have the Houthis in Yemen.

You have Hezbollah

in Lebanon. You have the Shia militia in

Iraq. They are decentralized.

They are fanatical.

And they share a similar eschatology.

They share similar religious framework.

And as a result, what we know is

the United States military is not very

good at fighting guerrilla insurgents.

We know because of what happened in

Afghanistan as well as Iraq. These two

are what is often referred to as as

forever wars where the United States

spent trillions of dollars over the over

20 years to try to squash insurgents and

they failed miserably. So,

because these four groups are

coordinating but they're decentralized,

this means that this war can only expand

over time. Now, Saudi Arabia is feels

threatened by the Houthis. So, what

Saudi Arabia has done is most recently

it's signed something called the Mecca

Accords.

Turkey and Pakistan.

Okay? So, Turkey and Pakistan and Saudi

Arabia now must come to each other's

defense.

And it seems to me all these three

countries, Saudi Arabia, will be the

first to invoke this mutual defense pact

against the Houthis. So, you can see a

situation where Pakistan, Turkey, and

Saudi Arabia is brought into war to try

and dislodge the Houthis. But we know

that the Houthis in a mountain retreat

are almost invincible.

So, this war can only expand and the

Houthis in response, what they can do

is destroy the energy infrastructure of

Saudi Arabia. The Houthis have ballistic

missiles, they have drones, and Saudi

Arabia is this giant

lake of gasoline ready to be blown up or

lit up by the Houthis at any time.

>> You know, back in the early 2000s, there

was the Al-Qaeda, there was ISIS, there

was you know, there was still Hezbollah

and Hamas.

So, how would how is this different?

Because there was lots of military

militant groups.

>> Great question, okay?

Why this is different is there is active

coordination amongst these groups. So,

Al-Qaeda, ISIS, they were working

separately,

but

the there are three proxies, okay? You

have the Houthis, you have the Hezbollah

in Lebanon, you have the Shia militia.

They all report back to the IRGC in

Iran.

And here's the kicker, this is really

important.

Both China

and Russia are supporting Iran in this

conflict.

China is supporting Iran through the

Belt and Road initiative, basically

transporting goods to Iran through this

corridor.

And Russia is supporting Iran through

the Caspian Sea.

As a result, Iran in theory could fight

this war indefinitely.

Okay? That's one thing that we have to

appreciate. There's a clear

alliance in place to make sure that Iran

and its proxies can withstand

this war.

The other thing that's really important

for us to appreciate is that the Middle

East, it is the

heart and center of the petrodollar

system. It takes all these

barrels of oil

in the GCC countries

and transports them

to India,

Pakistan,

China,

Japan.

Okay?

And what then happens is the the East

Asia takes

these barrels of oil energy. Um could

you put the the mirror brothers in

Japan? What are these little figurines

you're asking me to put in Japan? So,

this represents Japan's contribution to

the global economy. So, it takes energy

from the Middle East and turns them into

manufactured products, consumer

electronic products for the world to

consume. It makes these in US dollars

and China, Japan, and the GCC all invest

their excess savings in the United

States, which allows the United States

to focus on innovation, to create place

like New York City. New York City is

also very specialized area because it

basically is the financial center of the

world. Okay? So, all this

is the petrodollar system. It As you can

see, this system is dependent on free

trade. But once the oil stops flowing,

then what happens

is China, Japan are no longer able to

make the manufactured goods they need to

export.

And the United States loses

all these recycled US dollars.

So, the three biggest buyers of US

Treasuries, basically the three

biggest financiers

of the of the US economy, basically the

AI

bubble, are Japan, the GCC, and China.

So, we will see a cascading effect

where maybe in a few months time

the system collapses.

>> Do you know what, Professor?

One [snorts] of the reasons why I think

it's quite hard for and I'm just going

to be completely honest, people can take

this as they take it, but it's just me

being honest. One of the reasons why

it's quite hard to

>> [snorts]

>> believe that, you know, the world is is

going to collapse and that this is going

to be like the Bronze Age Collapse. I

was I was actually reading about the

Bronze Age Collapse after you mentioned

it and what I I pulled up here says,

"The Late Bronze Age Collapse was a

rapid, violent, and widespread societal

breakdown that occurred in the Eastern

Mediterranean between approximately

1,200 and 1,150 BCE. Before the

collapse, the region was heavily

globalized. Major superpowers like the

Egyptians, etc., etc., were deeply

interconnected

through diplomacy, royal marriages, and

complex international trade networks.

But, within a span of just 50 years,

almost every significant city in the

Eastern Mediterranean was destroyed and

many were never rebuilt."

And there's a map which I'll throw up on

the screen which shows this breakdown.

I Here's my honesty.

As a 34-year-old,

I have lived a very

>> charmed life.

>> charmed life.

>> Yeah.

>> As it relates to his you know, history

and the things that happened in history.

So, when we hear these things that, you

know, the society will break down,

there'll be civil collapse, we don't

really have a reference point at as like

Gen Z's and millennials really. Our

parents and their parents, they have,

you know, reference points from World

War II, etc., the 1940s, etc., but we

don't really have them. So, it seems all

to be quite, you know, that can't happen

to us.

>> Yeah. You're absolutely right. And I

think a lot of the issue is

the world has been constructed in a way

to maintain the privileges

of the Western populations. An example I

use is

um, you say

that we've lived a charmed life. Well,

if you've been

if you lived in

Iraq, Afghanistan, these places, you do

not live a charmed life.

>> Yeah.

>> Because the United States came and

attacked you for no particular reason

and destroyed the very infrastructure of

your society. Even today, Iraq and

Afghanistan are engulfed in local

violence and war and political

assassinations. And so you've never

known if you were a child in Iraq or

Afghanistan and even in Africa

you've never you've never known peace,

stability, and prosperity. So, the

inequality in the world is stark and we

in the West have been extremely

privileged to be sheltered from a lot of

the chaos in the world. In fact, the US

empire's designed to ensure the

populations never have to suffer the

tragedy

and suffering of other people. And what

I'm trying to say is

this US empire is breaking down

and there's nothing that we can do to

stop it. So, all the suffering that that

we have might have seen on television

it is coming to us

in our lives.

And we need to be aware of it.

>> When you say it's coming to us in our

lives, what's coming to us in our lives?

>> The same political violence, the same

chaos, the same political polarization

that has

infested the rest of the world.

>> Do you think war is coming to our

shores? Because we now live in a post

new nuclear bomb era.

>> Yes.

>> And that seems to have created a weird

way a bit of peace

>> Right.

>> between superpowers.

>> So, I'm going to go to the screen

>> Okay.

>> and I'm going to

paint you a picture

of our global supply chains.

And what it means for global supply

chains to break down using a few maps.

And these maps, I hope, will paint a

clear and simple picture of what it what

is about to come.

>> Can I ask you a question just before we

get to the screen? Have you always been

pessimistic about the future?

>> No.

>> When did you become pessimistic about

the future?

>> I became very pessimistic about the

future after Brexit and the election of

Donald Trump.

Because

I was an immigrant

who grew up in a very poor family. My

father was a dishwasher, and he was a

dishwasher for 30 years before he

retired. Our were so poor, we couldn't

even afford a car.

We never took any vacations, but

I worked hard, I got into Yale

University.

One of the best colleges in the world.

And not only that, but I went there on a

full scholarship. So, from my

perspective, the world was perfect. It

was a meritocracy.

It was a place that rewarded talent and

hard work. So, I believed

that

the world was governed by reason,

by logic, by science, by truth, by good

people.

And when Brexit and the election of

Donald Trump happened, I was

traumatized.

Brexit was the British people turning

away from globalization. The election of

Donald Trump,

from my perspective, was the American

rejection

of meritocracy, of reason, of truth, of

of order. And

when that happened,

it sort of told me

what I believed about the world

didn't really work.

And when those things happen,

that

forced me to reflect deeply on

why the world was was breaking down. And

those events led me to today. Because

what I'm trying to do is I'm trying to

figure out

patterns of history,

principles of society

that allow us to better understand

ourselves. And that's why I drew you

this formula.

Because traditionally we understood

innovation

as maybe coming from universities.

And having studied history, having

studied global supply chains, I now

recognize that no, technology just comes

from specialization and globalization.

And this not only is an analysis of the

current world, but it also gives us

a framework to predict the future,

right? So if

in the time of war, specialization and

globalization break down, then in theory

technology should break down as well.

Okay? And that's what what I'm what I'm

trying to do. I'm trying to figure out

how and why we are we where we are

today.

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>> So, this is a summary of the global

supply chain network and we can see how

it evolves the entire world. You are not

able to build semiconductors unless you

have a globalized economy. So, there's

been a lot of talk about China

controlling the

elements, right? So, China manufactures

about

70% of the world's silicon

and rare earths, China controls about

70% of rare earths. What people don't

appreciate is it works both ways, okay?

So, China does export a lot of silicon

and rare earths, but it also needs

import a lot of helium in order to

sustain its semiconductor manufacturing

process. The reason why is helium cools

the semiconductors in a way

to to allow it for to manufacture, okay?

So, helium is a cooling agent. Another

thing that people don't appreciate is

people think that China has monopoly on

rare earths, but America in a place

called Spruce Pine, Spruce Pine,

North Carolina,

this area has monopoly on high-quality

quartz.

It controls about 90% of the world's

high-quality quartz, which you need in

the silicon manufacturing process as

well.

Okay? So, if these nations start to stop

trading with each other, technology

would cease to progress.

Now, something to keep in mind is it's

not just semiconductors are dependent on

the global supply chain. Food is also

very dependent on the global supply

chain. So, what we're seeing is a stark

contrast between the north and the

south. So, the north, okay,

produces

most of the world's fertilizer.

And the south, okay, primarily Africa,

the Middle East,

and South America, they import a lot of

the fertilizer. This is my actual chart

much more clearly, okay? So, ammonia is

a very important component of

fertilizer. And as you can see, most of

the ammonia production plants are

actually in the north of the world,

Canada, United States, Europe, China,

Russia. So,

the south, the global south, is

dependent on the north for food. In a

time of war, when global supply chains

break down, the north might lose access

to fancy wireless smartphones. The south

will face famine, okay? Why is this

important?

Because the world is rife with conflict.

The main issue that we're we will face

next 20 years is not oil, it's actually

water.

All right?

So, this map that we're seeing right now

is actually telling us where the next

major geopolitical flash points are. So,

basically, if you see red on the map, it

means this place has water scarcity

issues. And the red issues tells exactly

where wars will erupt, okay? So, even

the United States, if you look at the

western part of the United States, they

do have water scarcity issues. And

actually, if you go to uh the western

United States, Colorado, California,

Arizona, these places, they're fighting

over

the Colorado River because the Colorado

Colorado River is what supplies most of

the water. You go to the Middle East,

and you know that the Middle East is

almost like a dynamite ready to explode.

And what this war will do is aggravate

all the tensions in the Middle East.

India itself is facing water shortages,

which brings it into conflict with

China, okay? So, this one map, if you

can just see it, it basically tells you

um where the next geopolitical flash

points will be. It means a place that is

most likely to go to war

or have conflict or political violence

within the next 20 years.

Okay? But also here

is North uh East Asia.

Japan is here, North Korea is here,

okay? So, that's another major flash

point. So, this is what over the next 20

years

where war is most likely to break out.

Okay? But what's important to appreciate

is once war breaks out, there are

third-order effects

um causing conflict to spread around the

world. Okay? This is a really important

map for us to appreciate as well. This

map tells us

fertility rates around the world. As you

can see,

Africa has the world's

highest fertility rate followed by the

Middle East. Okay?

>> So, they're having the most children per

couples.

>> That's right. Why is this a problem?

Because if you go back to the previous

map, this area is also where there is

the most geopolitical tension.

And so, if there are more and more

children, young people being born here,

they have no choice but to migrate. And

where would they migrate? Probably to

Europe. And you're like, well, okay.

Well, then what

Europe should do is

turtle up. Europe should build walls and

prevent these migrants from reaching

Europe. But Europe has its own problem,

which is the aging crisis. Okay? So,

look at what's happening where the

fastest aging populations

are in fact in the most developed

nations, including Japan,

Europe, and North America.

So,

if you have an aging population, you

need to provide cheap health care,

nursing.

What What does that mean? It means you

have to let in more immigrants

>> in order to service

>> the aging population.

And what will happen then is domestic

conflict where you have more migration

into Western societies, which brings

them into conflict with the native

populations, and therefore, it is

possible you have civil war

as well as political violence,

and even the possibility of revolution.

Okay? So, these maps, collectively,

paint a very grim picture of the world

that we're we're living in.

>> On this page here about immigration

causing civil war, political violence,

revolution, wouldn't it just be the

case, as we're seeing, that these

Western societies will increasingly

elect right-wing political parties,

which is kind of what we're seeing.

We're seeing, you know, parties in the

UK like Reform, surge. I think there was

news yesterday in Germany of the the

political party there. We're seeing I

mean, we're seeing the same in the

United States as well.

>> That That's a fantastic point. That's

That's exactly what we're seeing. We're

seeing the AfD surge in Germany. You

know, MAGA being very dominant in the

United States. We're seeing Vox in

Spain. So, in theory, what's going to

happen is these countries become much

more right-wing, and then they block out

immigration because that that is their

main policy platform.

>> And that should stop the civil

>> The problem is what do you do about your

aging population?

>> Robots.

>> Exactly, right? That's what you would

think, but what we're seeing is a

breakdown in global supply chains.

Robots

depend on

copper,

right? Which you get from

Chile, Peru,

China, Australia. These are pretty far

away places from Europe and the United

States, right? You also need lithium,

which you get from the lithium triangle.

Again, pretty far away. You also need

silicon, which is uh mainly manufactured

in China. You need rare earths, which

again is really manufactured in China.

So, this you've had this huge issue

where, in theory, you could use robots.

But, in a Well, when global supply chain

breaks down, you have to figure out the

cheapest way to resolve the labor issue.

And the cheapest solution is

immigration, right? People, I have to

say this, but people are much cheaper

and much more expendable than robots.

So,

I know

this is a bit scary.

I know this is really depressing, okay?

But,

what if the United States

were able to win this war in Iran

and conduct regime change? Then, all our

problems are solved, right?

Now, Iran is under control of the United

States, and we're back to globalization,

where oil is able to flow to South uh

Asia, to East Asia, and then they

manufacture goods, and then recycle

their profits into the Asian economy.

And with all this money, AI

is able to innovate to a point where we

achieve AGI,

and then we solve

all the world's problems, okay?

>> So, what happens next with this whole

Iran situation?

>> So, unfortunately,

it has now developed its own momentum,

all right? So, let me explain what is

most likely to happen. Okay. So, you

have Iran,

and you are now controlling the Strait

of Hormuz, right? You have the Houthis,

and they control the Bab el-Mandab

Strait.

You have Hezbollah, which can threaten

the Suez Canal.

You have the Shia militias

that can also threaten the

Mediterranean,

right?

From a game theory perspective,

what Iran should do next is take the

initiative and disrupt all global trade.

The reason why is

the US empire is based on a petrodollar.

It's based on global trade. When you

disrupt global trade

at the same time, there's no way for the

United States to respond.

>> How could they disrupt global trade?

>> What they can do is start to attack

randomly.

Okay? So, what who who's going to do is

attack Saudi Arabia.

Um Iraq can

um

attack Israel. Iran can attack the

Strait of Hormuz.

Uh Hezbollah can attack the Suez Canal,

okay? And why you do that is you're

creating uncertainty and chaos in the

global trade system. Why is that

important? Because the global trade

system is built on confidence.

And that's what drives insurance, okay?

So, if you're an insurance company,

you're like, "Oh my god, these countries

are Sorry, these

actors are completely out of control.

The United States has lost control over

the situation.

You can no longer insure global

shipping. If you can't insure global

shipping, global shipping ceases to

work.

All right? So, this is the madman

theory. And this is Iran's best play

moving forward. The reason why is the

United States does not have the military

capacity to respond to a coordinated

random strike across the Middle East.

>> So, is this your prediction? Is this

what happens next?

>> I don't want to make this prediction

just because there are lots of factors I

do not know, okay? So, So, first of all,

I don't know

politically what the situation is in

Iran. Certainly, the IRGC would want to

do this,

but there are political factions within

Iran who would think this is too

provocative. And it's possible the

entire world would unite against Iran if

Iran were to do this.

>> So, what is your prediction in terms of

Iran and what happens next?

>> My prediction is this will only

escalate. How it will escalate, I don't

know, okay? But the Trump card,

to use a pun, for Iran

is to start to disrupt global trade.

But United States has a response. And

this response

is to attack Iran's critical civilian

infrastructure, which includes

desalination plants and power plants.

And this would be worse than using a

nuclear weapon on Iran. Because without

power plants, the people in Tehran,

well, a city of about 10 million people,

they face starvation. Because a lot of

this food is refrigerated.

This is how the war becomes

almost civilization destroying. If Iran

were to completely disrupt global trade,

and if the United States were to destroy

the power plants of Iran.

>> Obviously, that would be horrific and uh

sort of inconceivably horrifying for the

people that live in Iran, the innocent

people that are caught in the middle of

this.

You don't think that the US would

actually do that, though, right?

>> I think the United States will be forced

to do it.

>> You think they'll be forced to do it?

>> Yes, according to game theory, they will

be forced to behave like this. Because

we need to appreciate

this

formula. Where the more power you have,

the less imagination empathy

you have. You And so the idea is you

don't think killing millions of Iranians

is a too heavy a price.

It's all worth it if you can maintain

the empire. The hubris

leads you to believe that the gods favor

you.

And you ultimately win and triumph in

this

great struggle.

>> Can't you create a huge migration crisis

where people start fleeing from Iran

up into Europe because they are

starving.

>> Exactly, right? Not just Iran, but

Africa as well because they've lost

access to cheap energy and fertilizer.

So, you have all this migration into

Europe which would overwhelm

European the European social fabric,

which would overwhelm the European

state.

But, unfortunately, this has been

happening

at a much slower pace ever since 2014

when for whatever reason, the United

States chose to

destroy

Libya and cause civil war in Syria,

which caused millions to migrate into

Europe. And as you remember, the

Europeans in their generosity accepted

all these migrants, which is leading

which has led to tremendous social

friction and political tension in Europe

today.

>> So, your prediction here if we conclude

then is that the US won't win this quote

unquote war in the Middle East

>> Yes.

>> because they can't defeat Iran and its

proxies, but also your conclusion is

that this is going to continue to

escalate in the Middle East.

>> Yes. And already what we're seeing are

other actors being drawn into the war.

So, the most recent news is South Korea

has authorized a naval contingent to go

and try to secure the Strait of Hormuz.

>> What would you do if you were Donald

Trump?

>> [laughter]

>> I mean,

um

what would I do if I were Donald Trump?

I would push all in. I would start

attacking power plants in uh Iran

because

if I take any half measures

I would just look weak.

And I'm only going to create more

problems. I would only incentivize

Iran and its allies to be more

provocative, to be more aggressive. So,

if I'm Donald Trump and I'm in this

situation I would just [snorts] push all

in.

>> You do up killing millions of Iranians

theoretically.

Well, I start this war, right?

Then I have to win this war.

Because I can't lose this war. I refuse

to lose this war.

I mean

Again, I I understand the concerns,

okay? But if you want to understand how

these leaders think, this formula gives

you

the best window into into the

psychology, which is because of so much

power, they lose the capacity to imagine

different possibilities and have empathy

for the suffering of the people in the

world.

>> Couldn't they just back out? Couldn't

they just Donald Trump just say do a big

press conference where he says we won

this war in Iran, we destroyed their

military, their naval bases, it's done,

and Iran will no longer have a nuclear

weapons.

>> The entire petrodollar system is premise

on two things. The US dollar as the

world reserve currency and the aura of

invincibility and invincibility of the

US military.

>> If they look like they are beatable

then the the US as its image is

sufficiently tarnished.

>> Right.

>> What are your predictions? I've been

dying to know.

>> So, I brought to you three predictions

and because we are so close to the

anniversary of 9/11 in New York City um

I structured these predictions around

the anniversary. And so these will be

three fun but horrifying predictions.

Okay? All right. So, my prediction

number one is

there will be a siege on New York City.

All right. So, let let me explain my

logic.

I was here last time and I said that

Donald Trump will get a third term.

And he's been joking about it. He's been

talking a lot about it. He's been so so

truthing about it.

And so, let's imagine

what happens if Trump gets a third term?

Well, you would have a lot of pissed off

people.

Especially in the major cities of Los

Angeles, San Francisco, Boston, Chicago,

and New York City.

>> We should probably just pause there

because there is a a constitutional ban

on serving three terms. The primary

barrier being the 22nd Amendment, which

was ratified in 1951 by Franklin D.

Roosevelt,

um who won four elections. It

establishes a strict term limit for the

presidency, and the text in this 22nd

Amendment explicitly says, "No person

shall be elected to the office of the

president more than twice."

So, how could that happen?

>> Well,

let's just say there is a

national emergency,

and the president is forced to suspend

the Constitution,

then he could theoretically

have his third term.

It's also possible that in 2028, he

decides to run as the vice president,

and have his son, Don Jr., run at the

top of the ticket.

And then, once the election is over,

then

Don Jr. would resign, and then Donald

Trump would become

the president. And there's nothing in

the Constitution that prevents him from

doing that.

So, there are two possibilities.

>> There isn't anything in the Constitution

that allows the US president to suspend

the Constitution in a in a

time of a national emergency.

>> It's president. Um so, for example,

during the American Civil War, Abraham

Lincoln was able to suspend habeas

corpus,

which is a constitutional right in the

US Constitution.

And during World War

II, Franklin Delano Delano Roosevelt

also did many unconstitutional things.

For example, interning the Japanese

population uh in camps.

There's nothing that court could do

against uh this

uh because a lot of US politics is

convention. It's agreed upon norms.

But if a US president is like,

"Well, screw these conventions." There's

nothing anyone else can do about it.

All right. So, let's imagine, okay, just

for for the sake of this argument, Trump

gets a third term.

What will happen is these cities that

are Democratic

will be in open revolt, meaning they

will refuse to pay taxes to the federal

government, but they will also not

welcome ICE federal agents into their

cities.

Which creates conflict between local law

enforcement and federal law enforcement.

And historically, if that were to

happen, then the president US president

usually thinks that he has the

responsibility to quash this

insurrection.

Right? And so, this would over time lead

to the siege of New York City, where

may- maybe federal forces along with

possibly militias from other states,

possibly red states that favor Trump,

they would try to besiege New York City

by cutting off the food supply and water

supply to New York City. And this

[snorts] would be a conflict that could

go on for years and years.

>> And what year would that take place?

2028?

>> It could happen right after

um Trump secures his third term.

>> Do you think Trump is going to have a

third term?

>> Um do you want to bet?

>> Yeah.

>> I think he'll get a third term.

>> How much do you want to bet?

>> Let's make a friendly bet and say $100.

>> Do you know what? I've said this before,

but I actually did have a bet with two

random guys on Facebook.

I don't use Facebook, but I did bet with

two random guys on Facebook a couple of

years ago. They told me that after

Donald Trump had lost the election to

Joe Biden, they told me that he was

going to stay in power.

And so, I said there's no way he stays

in power.

And they said, "No, he will." So, they

and then they offered me a bet. They

said, "A thousand pounds each. Uh we bet

you he's going to stay in power." They

were like queuing on people. And I said,

"Fine." And uh they actually did pay me

when he he came out of power. They they

transferred me a thousand dollars each.

I gave it to charity, but so, I'm more

than happy to make another bet if you

want to make a bet.

>> Yeah, let's do it. A hundred dollars. A

hundred US dollars.

>> A hundred US dollars. And you're you're

betting that Trump gets a third term.

>> Yes, I think he'll be in power after

2028. Is that fair? Like like he'll be

in power after 2028.

>> When's the election?

>> Well, the election should be November

4th, 2028.

But I I didn't say he would win the

election. I I just said he he would get

a third term.

>> So, you're saying that he will refuse to

leave office or

find another way to remain president

beyond the date of the inauguration.

>> Yes, I'm saying that uh on January 21st,

2029, Trump will still be in the White

House.

>> Okay, I'll take that bet.

>> Okay.

>> For everyone's clear. And please do uh

remind me to cash in, lads.

>> A hundred dollars.

>> Okay.

>> Yeah. A hundred hundred dollars may not

be worth anything at that time, but it's

a hundred dollars, okay?

>> Okay.

>> All right. So, as again, we are just

assuming

for the sake of argument that Trump is

in office in his third term, there will

be political violence

uh across the United States, primarily

in New York City. And if

the federal authorities being challenged

by a city or local state authority, then

the president will take this very

seriously and send in forces to quash

this insurrection.

Maybe other cities will be much more

compliant, but New York City has a very

charismatic mayor

in Zohan Madani. And like New Yorkers,

you don't want to mess with New Yorkers.

When they get angry, they get really

really angry. So, so this, I think

uh is

uh very likely if Trump gets a third

term. There'll be a siege in New York

City.

>> [snorts]

>> He would almost be 83 years old.

>> I mean, we say that, but like the amount

of energy he has, right? The fact of the

matter is the guy eats cheeseburgers

every day.

He gives a press conference almost every

day. He's always on social media

tweeting out something stupid. For

example, he's tweeted out that, you

know, all of North America is now the

USA. I'm not sure if you've seen that

yet. And he's talking about taking over

Canada and Greenland and Cuba. So, I

don't know where he gets his his energy,

but he seems really energetic.

I'm not sure if you've ever interviewed

Obama.

>> Michelle Obama?

>> Okay, but like if you just looked at the

picture

of Obama in 2008, he was a really

handsome,

really young, very vibrant man

in 2008.

You fast forward 8 years

and he came out just decrepit, okay? He

he was he had aged like at least 20

years in his office.

Donald Trump, for whatever reason,

has not aged that much.

>> Hair dye and fake tan?

>> He So, there's something really weird

about Donald Trump, which is a lot of US

journalists in Washington D.C. have his

direct personal cell phone number.

And they can call him and they will talk

for an hour.

Like

the guy is the president of the United

States.

And

if you are just an average Washington

journalist,

you can call him and talk to him for for

an hour a day. There are journalists who

go to the White House, interview him,

and says like, "We tried to get We tried

to like leave like an hour ago, but he

had he made us stay and talk to him some

more. He wouldn't let us leave."

So, I don't know where he gets his

energy from, but he's extremely

extremely energetic and he loves that

attention.

>> Okay.

What's prediction number two?

>> So, again, we are approaching the

anniversary of 9/11.

And there are a lot of people who fear

there will be another 9/11 attack on the

United States.

Just because you have a lot of actors

that are very angry at the United States

and who may want to seek vengeance

against American people. In that case,

if there is another 9/11 attack on the

United States,

I believe it will be an attack on the US

financial infrastructure.

Okay, so let me explain my reasoning.

What was 9/11? 9/11 was an act committed

by terrorists in order to traumatize the

population into self-destructive

violence.

Is that a fair statement?

>> I don't really know. Is that Was that

the

>> So, let's parse the statement. 9/11 was

an attempt to traumatize the American

population into self-destructive

violence. What I mean by that is you're

taking the symbols of American power,

which are like these airplanes,

>> Mhm.

>> as well as the Twin Towers. These are

symbols of American power.

>> And the Pentagon and

>> And the Pentagon

and the White House

and you're destroying them.

And for the longest time, American

people believed that these are symbols

of American invincibility. Our planes,

our the Pentagon, the Twin Towers. And

to see them destroyed like that would

traumatize the population. In fact, it

did traumatize many many people.

And the idea is you traumatize them into

a self-destructive violence, which means

like they want vengeance. And so what

did they do? They went to the Middle

East, fought against the Taliban in

Afghanistan, then went to attack Iraq,

then this war spread to Syria, Libya.

[clears throat]

And we can say that these 20 years of

these forever wars in the Middle East

have been very destructive for the

United States. It's caused a huge fiscal

deficit. It's caused the American

military to lose all of prestige. It's

caused a lot of corruption in Washington

D.C.

It's been very bad for the United

States.

All right. So, if you're a terrorist and

you look at 9/11, you're like, "Okay,

well,

I want to do the same thing, which is

like I want to traumatize people into

self-destructive violence.

How can I do so? Well, I need to

traumatize them, right?

Me

flying planes into the new the new Twin

Towers doesn't do that because people

are now used to they've they've been

normalized into this sort of violence.

So,

how can I induce trauma

into people? Well, there are different

possibilities you can use, right?

So, let's do a thought experiment.

What would happen

if one day you open your iPhone

and you're looking to

buy a coffee.

Well, you scan your iPhone

and

it doesn't read. And you're like, "Well,

there might be a problem with the bank."

You call the bank, you can't get through

to the bank.

And like after hours and hours of

frantic anxiety, you finally recognize

that there was an attack

on critical US financial data servers.

And so, all the money in your bank

account has been wiped out.

And they don't know when or how long it

will take them to retrieve it.

What do you feel?

>> Concerned.

>> I would say you would feel more than

concerned. I would say you would feel a

lot of anger, anxiety, and frustration.

>> But that must be hard to do. Surely

taking out the financial infrastructure

for everybody

for a long enough period of time where

they start to feel real world

consequences.

>> Would Would say 9/11 was hard to do?

>> Yeah.

>> I would say so as well. I can possibly

imagine them doing this. So, there is

certain creativity

to these people.

And I would not rule that out. But, I'm

just saying if another 9/11 happens, it

is possible

what we'll see is the destruction

of the US financial infrastructure,

which would drive millions of people

into a mad frenzy. You've worked your

entire life to save up $2 million.

That $2 million is your retirement.

>> It used to be that working for yourself

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You said to me at the top of the

conversation you're having difficulty

getting back into the United States

recently.

>> Yes.

>> What do you mean by that?

>> So, I think there are a lot of people

who do not like what I'm saying. I would

say I am one of the most polarizing

figures in the world right now.

So, um the story is

that the Iran war happened

in March, and it made me famous.

And I was really afraid that this fame

would annoy and frustrate a lot of

Americans. And so, I uh decided that I

should not actually go to the United

States at this point because it's most

likely that I come here and I could be

held in detention by customs. I could be

deported. And so, that time period was

uh extremely

um scary for me. And I I refused all

offers to come to the United States.

There were quite a few people who wanted

me to fly to the United States to be

interviewed. So,

then what happens over the summer, the

war started sort of died down, and I

thought, "Okay, let me fly to Canada,

where my family is." And I'm in Toronto,

and I'm going to try to enter the United

States by air from Toronto. So, on

August 5th, I went to to the Toronto

Airport Pearson. It was like 7:00 in the

morning because I had an early flight to

Los Angeles.

I told them that I was going to go on

the Phil Vawn show for and I'll be in

the United States for 2 weeks,

uh which [snorts] was all true. So, so

when when I'm at customs, the

immigration officer asked me a lot of

questions, but I I handled all these

questions pretty smoothly. Then he asked

me,

"Do you have a travel letter for your

son?" Because my son, Chris, who's 8

years old, he's traveling with me. And

I'm like,

"What is a travel letter?" And again,

this this is like 7:00 in the morning,

so my brain's not working. He's like,

"Call your wife."

I'm like, "Okay." So, I try to call my

wife. My wife is in the shower. And so,

then the immigration officer says,

"Okay, you have you have to go to

secondary to be interrogated to make

sure that your son, Chris, is

traveling with you willingly." So, we go

to we go to in the secondary,

and it's like 7:00 in the morning, and

my flight's at 8:30. And we're waiting

there for like an hour. And I'm freaking

out because it seems like we're we'll

miss our flight.

And during this hour, I'm texting my

wife, and she's giving me the birth

certificate, she's giving me all the

materials I need to prove that the son

that Chris is my son.

And then at the very last minute, we get

called. And a minute a minute I'm able

to resolve the issue.

And I tell him I'm going to go on the

Phil Donahue show, and I'll be there for

2 weeks.

So, I'm in the United States, and I get

contacted from other podcasts to do

interviews, and I travel on the United

States.

And I I forget about the 2-week

promise to the immigration authorities

because

I'm not sure if you know the law, but

I'm Canadian I'm a Canadian citizen.

And therefore, I don't need a visa to

come to the United States. You know, if

if you say I'm coming for 2 weeks, but

you stay a month, it's usually not an

issue.

I go back to Toronto, and I come back to

do this podcast. And so yesterday,

I am put in

Yesterday, I'm ready, okay? I have my

travel letter, I have my son's birth

birth certificate. And I go to

immigration officer, and they still put

me in secondary. But basically, I think

what happened was

I said certain things during my podcast

interviews that pissed off some really

powerful people in the United States.

A lot of things that I said were related

to something called the Clean Break

memo,

which you have. The Clean Break memo was

published in 1996.

And it laid out a plan for how Israel

can become the dominant hegemon in the

Middle East. It's written by a study

group. And part of the study group,

there were two individuals. They were

Richard Perle

and Douglas Feith.

These two

would

in the George W. administration, sorry,

George W Bush

administration

co-working in the Pentagon. And these

two along with Paul Wolfowitz were the

chief architects of Iraq war.

So, I named these people and I explained

how this warning Iran follows from the

Clean Break memo and their goal is to

establish Israel as the regional

hegemon.

And I think this is what got me into a

lot of trouble.

>> Why do you think that got you into a lot

of trouble?

>> Because I'm a Canadian, when I come into

the country they usually don't bother

me. And so, for them to question me I

think it was because

some top officials basically requested

that I be put in secondary every time I

come to the United States. And I I also

believe this because I have a friend,

Max Blumenthal, who is a very good US

journalist and he was in Iran covering

Khomeini's funeral in response um

a social media influencer named Laura

Loomer

demanded his arrest. And so, when Max

Blumenthal came into the country, and he

is a US citizen by the way his devices

were confiscated.

And now Max Blumenthal is suing the

Department of Homeland Security for

illegally

confiscating his devices. And so, I

think that we live in a time when

unfortunately the empire is in decline

and because of hubris and arrogance they

are trying to silence their critics

rather than accept our constructive

criticisms.

>> Okay. So, it's a theory.

>> Actually, they never told me why I was

put in secondary, but he hinted at me

that every time I come to the United

States I will be put into secondary to

make sure that I'm coming to the United

States for legitimate reasons.

Also, he hinted at me that it is

possible that once my I-94 expires in 6

months, they will not renew it. Meaning

they will not allow me in the country

anymore. I hope I come back to the

United States. I I have the deepest

admiration for the American people. I

think that the Americans are the most

open and generous people in the world.

But, at the same time, I do appreciate

that we are living in very interesting

times.

>> Prediction three.

>> Okay. My third prediction

is that

Lionel Messi will become president of

Argentina.

>> Oh, wow. Wasn't expecting that.

>> Yep. So, I wanted three new predictions

that were fun and interesting for us to

discuss.

So, why I make this prediction is

that Argentina

is working very closely with the United

States and Israel at this moment. You

are a British citizen, so you will

appreciate

that

Argentina

has recently demanded the return of the

Falklands.

And Donald Trump has voiced support to

Argentina.

So, I'm asking myself, why are they so

concerned about the Falklands?

And not only that, but if you've been

following the news,

Javier Milei has become very close with

Benjamin Netanyahu. Argentina and Israel

have very strong relations. In fact,

Argentina is welcoming Israeli

investment

and immigration into

Argentina.

And apparently, if you are an Israeli

citizen and you go into Argentina,

and again, you can fact-check this, but

from what I understand, you have

immediate access to the health care as

well as pension.

Which makes actually no sense because

they're not Argentinian citizens, right?

So, it seems very much that Argentina is

working very close with Israel and the

United States. And the reason why why I

think that Israel and and Argentina are

working very close together is right now

there's almost a civil war in Israel.

We have Messianic Jews

who believe this war in the Middle East

will usher in the end times and the

coming of Messiah and secular Jews who

are like these people are insane.

And so, the only way to resolve this

conflict is by

exporting

secular Jews elsewhere. And it seems to

me um Argentina is a very good place to

export them. So, but then you're like,

"Okay, how do you get

the people of Argentina to accept

this massive immigration into into

Argentina from Israel?" Because Israel

is not very popular

in Argentina. I think the best way is to

make Lionel Messi the president

of Argentina and his popularity will be

enough to let all these Israelis into

the country.

Him as well as the reclaiming of the

Falkland Islands, right? These two

things, you know, the

god of Argentina becomes president and

Argentina reclaims the Falklands from

the British. And I'm I I'm I I apologize

to you as as a British citizen. It's

okay, I like Messi.

>> Okay.

You you also mentioned to me that you

think Japan is going to go to war with

China or China's going to go to war with

Japan.

>> Yes.

>> What makes you think that?

>> Well, because every Chinese believes

this.

Yes, so it's the funniest thing, but

like for the longest time people

believed that China will eventually

invade Taiwan. This is what's very

commonly accepted in the West.

But if you actually go to China, no

Chinese actually believes this and no

Taiwanese actually believes this because

um this is not the way that China

actually goes about its foreign policy.

It does not go and invade other

countries. Or in its most recent

history, it has not been that

aggressive. The last war that China

fought was in Vietnam, and this was was

in the mid early '80s, okay? So this is

a long time.

But if you go to China today,

everyone believes that China and Japan

will go to war.

And to appreciate this, you have to

understand the geography

of Southeast Asia. Should I turn up the

sound a bit on the screen? Yeah, okay.

So what I want to do is use geography

to explain why conflict between China

and Japan is inevitable at this point.

Okay, so you have

Japan.

Okay, and then you have

China.

Okay. So the first thing to appreciate

is that these are two very different

countries.

China is a land power that is

self-sufficient.

Japan is a sea power that is dependent

on resources from abroad. So

historically, China was primarily an

agricultural nation.

Japan, in order to survive, engaged in

piracy. So the Japanese have always been

pretty militaristic. They have a very

They had a samurai culture for the

longest time. They were always at war

with each other. Um and the Japanese

people are extremely resilient and

cohesive because the geography of Japan

is very unstable. There's lots of

earthquakes. There's lots of tsunamis.

So they have to work together as a

people in order to survive. This is

important because

this war in Iran is affecting both China

and Japan.

China will probably have to

deindustrialize,

but if Japan doesn't do anything, then

it's possible in the next 50 years Japan

ceases to exist because not only is

Japan dependent on energy and imports

and resources from overseas, but it has

an aging population. It has the most

elderly population in the world. So, in

a time of war

when the United States is no longer able

to give you protection, Japan needs to

create resource colonies. And

historically, Southeast Asia, right

here,

has been the main resource colony of

Japan.

If it doesn't have Southeast Asia, the

United States now becomes the main

benefactor of Japan. And

Japan doesn't want to be in that

position because that's what happened in

World War II when uh Japan got most of

its energy from the United States. And

when the United States embargoed Japan,

Japan was was forced to declare war on

the United States. Okay, so the United

States

can provide Japan with all its energy

needs, but that would make Japan

completely subservient. So, Japan wants

to

basically access the resources of

Southeast Asia. There's a problem

though, and that problem is called

Taiwan.

Taiwan is right in the middle

of the South China Sea.

And if China and Taiwan were to reunify,

what China could do now is embargo

Japan. I'm not saying China will do so,

but I'm saying that China has the option

of doing so, and that's and Japan sees

that as a threat to its its existence.

In fact, um a few months ago

>> What does embargo mean?

>> It embargo means you blockade, okay?

>> But if they did this, wouldn't the whole

hell would break loose? You know, Japan

are going to attack China.

The Taiwan is going to get messy. It's

going to impact China.

>> So, I'm not saying that China would

embargo with but I'm saying it has the

option of doing so.

>> But you are saying that China is going

to attack Japan.

>> No, no, no, no. I'm saying there's a

conflict between the between these two

nations.

>> Okay, I thought you said it was

inevitable.

>> Yes, but so so let me explain how how

this would draw out how this will play

out, okay?

So,

Japan sees Taiwan the Taiwan issue as

vital to its national security interest.

And that's what exactly what Prime

Minister Takaichi said a few months ago.

And when she made that statement, China

overreacted. So, before you had millions

of tourists from China visiting Japan a

year, now most of them are not allowed

to go to Japan.

And it's very likely that China and

Japan will have a conflict over Taiwan.

Now,

the thing to remember is it does not

benefit any nation here to go to war

because as you point out, all chaos

would break out. What you need to do is

create leverage to negotiate better

terms. Okay? So, what Japan is doing is

saying, "Okay,

look, we can't take on

China directly

because China is too powerful. But what

what we can do is build alliances to

possibly challenge and if we have to

embargo China. All right? So, what Japan

is doing is building alliances with the

Philippines,

and Australia,

and India.

And together these four nations, even

with the United States, they could in

theory choose to embargo China.

Right? What Japan needs is access to

Southeast Asia because that will be the

main source of its resources

going into the future. So, that is the

scenario being played out. Now,

China does not want to come into a

conflict with Japan. Why? Because China

is seen as a big bad dragon in this

area. And if China is seen as too

provocative, that would basically, in

the eyes of all of Southeast Asia, to

gang up on China. So, you can see

alliance between India, Southeast Asia,

Taiwan, Philippines, Australia, South

Korea, North Korea, Japan versus China.

Okay?

So,

the way to resolve this issue

is to use a proxy

in order to threaten Japan

in order to

uh develop more leverage

over Japan in negotiations, right? And

that proxy, of course, is North Korea.

So, North Korea

has the potential

to shell South Korea because most of the

population of South Korea lives within

20 minutes of North Korea. And so, in

theory, North Korea could flatten Seoul

in just a day, okay? Most of North

Korean artillery is actually by the

border. What North Korea could also do

is lobby missiles into the Sea of Japan

and rattle the Japanese.

Okay? So, this is the dynamic being

played out where Japan, through its

proxies, primarily the Philippines,

is challenging Chinese naval dominance

in the South China Sea, and China will

use North Korea as a proxy to threaten

South Korea and Japan. Over time, as the

United States retreats

from

uh the Asia-Pacific,

this conflict between China and Japan

will get worse and worse. And the main

main reason why is it is in the

strategic best interest of the United

States to foment as much tension between

China and Japan as possible.

>> But it could compromise Taiwan, no?

>> Who cares?

>> Do you ask about Taiwan?

>> No, it doesn't.

>> I thought it was who?

>> we get all of our semiconductors from.

>> But what does Trump want to do? He wants

Taiwanese to move their semiconductor

industry to the United States.

And it's already happening where TSMC,

the main semiconductor

company in Taiwan, is opening a I

believe it's 20 20 billion dollars

new factory in Arizona. So if there's a

conflict between China and Japan, the

the tension becomes worse and worse, the

Taiwanese semiconductor industry it

would be forced to relocate to the

United States, which would be in the

best interest of the Americans.

>> You also think that

Russia are going to invade the Baltics.

>> Yeah. Okay, so now what what we'll shift

focus and go into Europe.

All right? Okay, but but is this pretty

clear?

>> Yes, it is clear.

>> Okay. Right now you have

NATO or Europe

supporting Ukraine

in its war against

Russia.

Okay? And most of this war is actually

happening in Eastern Ukraine and Russia

seems to be winning a lot of territory

in Eastern Ukraine.

>> But everybody's saying that Ukraine are

fighting back really, really well.

>> The reason why is what Ukraine has

chosen to do in these past few months,

which has which has changed the contours

of the war, is Ukraine is using drones

to attack Russia's energy

infrastructure.

>> And just hitting Russia in general is

making the people of Russia change their

perception.

>> Exactly, right? So before this conflict

was contained to Eastern Ukraine,

it didn't affect the people of Russia.

In fact, it really was helping the

economy of Russia because Russia could

still export its oil around the world.

Now, Ukraine what Ukraine is doing is

using drones to attack the oil

refineries of Russia, which is causing

economic pain

on the Russian people. And this is

making uh Putin

increasingly unpopular. Okay? So, the

conduct of the war has changed. So, if

you're Russia and you're looking at

this, you think your enemy is not

Ukraine. You You think your enemy is

NATO Europe. Why? Because Ukraine, the

drones are being manufactured

in Germany

and the UK and other places as well.

So, in theory

Ukraine could fight this war to infinity

because its manufacturing hub is in

Europe. Europe is is also providing

Ukraine with infinite financing

as well as intelligence. Okay? So, if

you're Russia, you're like, "Wait a

minute here.

Over time, we can't possibly win this

war of attrition because we're fighting

Europe and Europe's

manufacturing

capacity is well protected behind the

NATO alliance.

Okay? So, what I need to do

is provoke NATO in Europe into coming

into Ukraine, basically force them out

of their shell. Shell, right? And so,

what's been happening is Germany and

Russia have been in conflict these past

few months.

Uh in early August, there was a drone

attack on Leipzig Airport, okay? Leipzig

Airport.

And the Germans blamed the Russians.

And in response, the Germans closed down

the Rus- Russian consulate in Bonn

as well as removed certain Russians from

uh Germany. Russia is retaliating by

closing the German consulate in St.

Petersburg.

And

the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey

Lavrov, has has said, "We are in a

similar situation to 1941." What

happened in 1941? The Germans invaded

Russia.

Okay? So, in other words, Russia

recognizes that if they just leave

Europe alone and just fight this war in

Ukraine, they will lose in the end. So,

they must force and provoke Europe into

mass mobilization to defend Ukraine.

And one way to do that is by hitting

critical manufacturing infrastructure

within Europe.

>> Do you think Russia Russia's next move

is to attack within NATO?

Germany, the UK, etc.

>> It has no choice. It It has to do this.

>> Can't Can't it just do a deal

with Trump? Like, you know, they're

trying to do a deal at the moment,

aren't they? Jared Kushner's apparently

trying to get a deal done between

Ukraine and Russia, and

>> So,

the United States,

do you want peace between Europe and

Russia? Or do you want war between

Europe and Russia? Well, from a game

theory perspective, you're better off

with war. Why? Because if there's war,

Russia can't sell its energy overseas.

The United States has a monopoly over

energy now, right?

>> global instability though. If there's a

war here, then it's going to impact the

US in a

>> Well, then why did the United States

invade Iran? Right?

>> Cuz they thought it would be an

overnight Venezuela situation where you

decapitate the leadership, everyone

rises up, you have a favorable leader in

the country that you is subservient to

you.

>> Great. Exactly. And this is exactly how

the empire thinks, right? We already

used this formula, right? Now,

if we apply this formula to Europe

situation, then the thinking is, "Well,

Putin is a paper tiger.

He is very unpopular at home.

If we just force

this war for another two months, if we

continue to attack the energy

infrastructure of Russia, then

eventually people will arise up and

overthrow Putin.

Right? The same logic.

>> So, therefore Trump wants the

Ukraine to win.

Or he wants Ukraine to keep doing what

they're doing.

>> Well, Trump [snorts]

personally doesn't care, right? Because

the more war there is, the more the

Europeans are forced to rely on American

energy.

>> Okay.

>> So, if you're Putin,

what you need to do is force the

Europeans into war in Ukraine. Why?

These are There's only really only one

path to victory in this scenario.

The path to victory is to cause

instability

and violence

in Europe, okay?

The idea is if you force Europe to mass

mobilize,

the people would rather

overthrow the government

than agree to take up arms against

Russia. That's the theory, okay? But

Russia has exactly one path to victory,

and that is to cause as much instability

and violence as possible within Europe.

And the best way to do that is by

forcing the Europeans to mass mobilize

their population.

Okay? But for that to happen,

what Russia needs to do first is declare

total war.

What total war means is the mass

mobilization

of your society. So, what's important

for us to appreciate is

so far, Russia has not declared war on

Ukraine. It is a special military

operation,

which means that Russia is relying on

volunteers to fight this war. In a time

of total war, Russia could mobilize its

adult population, and we estimate there

are at least 3 million

reservists in Russia ready to be called

up to arms.

Mass mobilization in Russia would force

mass mobilization in

Europe. And this is how the war is most

likely

uh

will most likely turn out.

>> I mean, I guess the other thing that's I

mean, listen, Professor there's a

sounds like there's a lot of conflict on

the way.

>> There's an acceleration underway.

>> What would have to be true for us to sit

here in 2036

and for there not to have been a

conflict between China and Japan, for

the

uh Iran situation to have cooled off,

the Ukraine war is either, you know,

where it is now or it's uh regressed?

>> The Clinwick memo.

This changed history.

>> So, what what are you saying

specifically? Specifically, what would

have to be the case for none of none of

these sort of catastrophic things to

take place?

>> Okay, in the year 1995, okay, this was

published in 1996. Now, you Yahoo came

to power in Israel in 1996. In 1995, we

lived in a world of neoliberalism.

Something called Washington Consensus.

And the idea is we have developed a new

model of history.

If people just traded

with each other

and consumers just bought goods, we

would have peace forever.

Okay, this is what we call it

neoliberalism, Washington Consensus.

>> [snorts]

>> And Bill Clinton

was the main proponent

of this idea.

And in order to achieve this vision for

global peace, what he did was promote

the Oslo peace process, which sought to

create a two-state solution

and bring peace in the Middle East,

right? The two-state solution is the

Palestinians and Israelis agree to live

side by side. And at that time, the main

thinking was

that once peace happened in the Middle

East, once this two-state solution was

created, then they would start to trade

with each other. Israel and Palestine be

brought into the GCC

and they would be part of the global

supply chain. And once prosperity comes

to Israel and Palestine, they would have

no need to ever hate each other again.

This is called the Oslo peace process.

Okay? And again, at that time, this was

just how policymakers in Washington

understood the world.

Right? It worked in China, it worked in

Japan, it worked in Germany. See, Japan

and Germany were these really militant

nation-states, but then we allowed them

to trade, we allowed their consumers to

have air conditioning, SUVs,

and now they're just really peaceful

people. So, why can't we do the same

thing in Israel and Palestine?

>> So, what is the clean break theory? What

what in a sentence?

>> The clean break theory is this.

Netanyahu came into power and basically

his argument is

we can never ever trust the Arabs not to

hate us.

We are Israelis.

We have been promised this land by God.

And the Arabs see us as

enemies, and whatever we do, they will

always hate us. So, screw peace, screw

compromise, let us become the regional

hegemon, because that is our manifest

destiny. That is what God told us to do,

that is what is written in the Bible,

and that that's what we were born to do.

Okay? And this is something called the

clean break memo. And the clean break

memo had three major pillars that have

that have all been achieved today. Okay?

The first pillar is

stop the Oslo peace process, do not give

more land to the Palestinians because

the Palestinians are animals. And the

way to treat animals is by beating the

crap out of them.

Okay? Do not treat them nicely. They

will

um

they will hate you.

>> So, wait, are you saying that the way to

stop all of the pessimism that we talked

about happening is

by the Clean Break theory succeeding?

>> No. No. No. No. What I said was in 1995,

there was already a theory in place

called neoliberalism that offered a

solution to the Israel-Palestine

issue that has been plaguing the Middle

East for the past few decades. And if

they had followed that through, then we

would live in a very different time.

>> Okay. So, to my question, my question is

and what would have to be the case for

this all the things you've described,

the the the wars and the conflict not to

happen?

>> Right. What would have happened is the

United States had pressured Israel into

seeking peace with the Arab nations.

>> Okay. So,

the US need to get Israel to

be friends with the Arab nations.

>> Yes. You force it because Israel is

really dependent on you for technology,

for financing, for arms. Israel is the

biggest recipient of American

foreign policy

uh aid.

>> So, just for those that want to know

what the Clean Break theory is, it was

it's called A Clean Break: A New

Strategy for Securing the Realm. It

refers to a prominent 1996 policy

documented

um and then prepared for Benjamin

Netanyahu by study group led by American

neo-conservative strategists.

Um did he read this memo?

>> He commissioned it.

>> He commissioned it. Okay. And the key

objectives of the Clean Break are, as

you said, the first one, abandoning land

for peace, which advocated for moving

away from the Oslo Accords framework,

shifting to a posture of peace through

strength and peace for peace without

giving up any territory. Number two,

regional dominance. It recommended

transcending the Israel-Palestine

conflict by focusing on weakening

regional adversaries, specifically

advocating for the containment or

removal of hostile regimes in Iraq and

Syria, and dismantling the

Iraq-Syria-Hezbollah axis. And lastly,

preemptive action. It urged Israel to

abandon defensive containment policies

in favor of proactive offensive

strategies.

>> And that's exactly what Israel is doing

today. This is what Israel has done for

the past 30 years. It has promoted

regime change in Syria and Iraq.

>> And so, the conclusion here is to stop

this sort of conflict escalating,

they have to reverse course with this

strategy.

>> The US needs to contain Israel. Yes.

>> Okay.

>> But what I'm arguing is it's too late,

cuz you you already unleashed the

structural forces that will collapse the

global trade system, in which case it's

every nation for itself.

I mean, you you've already created the

conditions for Japan and China to go to

war. You've already

created conditions for Germany and

Russia to go to war.

It's no longer, you can't put the genie

back back in the bottle again.

>> What does this mean? You know, a lot of

most of us aren't involved in politics,

so um we just kind of watch this stuff

and we have to

sort of figure out what to do with our

our families and our lives

in spite of this sort of craziness that

we see in the news and the global

conflicts and all that stuff. What is

the advice that you have for the average

person?

>> The best advice I can give to the

average person is

believe in God.

So,

I am a product of the meritocracy.

I received the best education in the

world, and I feel

the best education in the world

makes you think the world is

materialistic, God doesn't exist.

And as a result

in my 20s and 30s and 40s, I was a

deeply

angry

depressed

frustrated

person.

Because if God doesn't exist, there's no

order and structure to what's going on.

And it's just complete chaos.

And there can be no hope

or light in chaos.

And because

I married a wonderful woman who I think

is really an angel, because I have like

three

beautiful children,

I do believe there's a plan

and a structure and order and reason to

the world. And I've come in the past

2 years, and it's only it's only been

recent, okay? It's only been in the past

2 years when I have a true belief in

God.

>> So, it's all going to be okay.

>> Yes.

>> Great.

>> Yes. But you need to believe in God and

you need to focus on your family. Then

it will be all right.

>> So, don't focus on protesting in the

streets or elections or any of those

things or

>> If you believe in God

and you focus on your family,

sometimes you're compelled to take

action.

Because I believe in God, I live

a life following one simple principle,

which is speak the truth.

Why am I

on your show? Why did I spend the past

month

um going on so many different podcasts?

Because it's important people know the

truth.

If you really believe in God, if you

really focus on your family, you have a

personal and more responsibility to

speak the truth. If you know what's

going to happen, then speak it. Why you

doing this? What good will it do? It

doesn't matter. It's just like your

faith in God

compels you to live the truth

to and to speak the truth and to spread

the the truth. So, just because you

believe in God doesn't mean, "Okay, now

I believe in God and now I can just sit

back and hide in my room and play

computer games all day." Doesn't mean

that. It means if you truly believe in

God and you believe there's a plan, then

you have to take action

and you have to participate in the world

because why else would God create you?

>> So, why is God letting all of this stuff

happen?

When I look around the world, I see a

lot of wars and conflict, Russia,

Ukraine, the Middle East, lots of other

things breaking out at the moment. Why

would

God let this happen?

>> What is the path to wisdom?

>> Struggle, pain, failure.

>> Yeah.

>> Can we just have the wisdom without

them?

>> Wha- what could you?

>> [laughter]

>> So, we've got a lesson to learn.

>> Well, many lessons to learn.

But if you are truly a spiritual person,

you're thankful for this time

because

this struggle, this suffering will allow

us to transcend ourselves.

Wha- are we here to make a lot of money

and drive fast cars? Are we here to

learn what it means to be truly human?

To learn what love is.

To develop a deeper connection with God.

I mean, I think we're here

first and foremost

to be truly human. That means living a

life of love, empathy, and imagination.

And so, we go back to that formula where

if you have too much wealth, you have

too much fame, you have too much power,

it's impossible for you to truly have

imagination, empathy, and love.

So, how do you correct this? Well, you

create a world of crisis. Because in a

world of crisis,

everyone, you and me, we're forced to

look deep down and ask ourselves,

"What is truly important to me?

What gives me happiness? What is meaning

and purpose in my life?" And I think the

answer is

it's

my love for the people around me.

And that's the answer that we'll we'll

all come to. And once we come to this um

answer, then I think that is the great

spiritual awakening that could possibly

redeem all of humanity.

>> Professor, what's the most um

pertinent thing that's front of mind for

you at the moment that we haven't talked

about?

>> Well, I mean, we did talk about the

coming conflict with between China and

Japan, and I worry a lot about that.

>> What about AI? We didn't talk about

that. And that's kind of overlaid on all

of the stories we talked about because

it's to do with robotics, it's energy,

it's

uh semiconductors, chips, it's US-China.

>> Yeah. So, that's a great question.

Um and so, if we go back and talk about

global supply chains, this formula is

very important to understand. Technology

equals specialization times

globalization. So, in a time when global

supply chains are breaking down,

in time of war,

AI cannot make that leap

into AGI. So, what will happen is

AI will be repurposed as a control grid,

rather than AI developing the

intelligence necessary to reduce

scarcity, to solve

the most pressing medical problems of

humanity, uh to solve climate change, AI

will be re- repurposed to monitor

and surveil all of us.

>> I think that's going to happen

irrespective of

you know,

I think governments are going to be

increasingly interested in and capable

of monitoring all of us all the time.

Cuz we have cameras We're here in New

York City at the moment. There's cameras

everywhere. They're just a little bit

dumb.

They don't really talk to each other.

>> Yep. And

>> With AI, they can all talk to each

other. They see a professor walking down

the street and he's off his way to his

hotel and now he's in a hotel and uh

>> I agree that is the most likely trend.

But what I'm saying is all these crises

will accelerate

this trend. Because let's just say you

have a siege of New York City.

Well, Palantir will use this opportunity

to develop um autonomous drone warfare

that is controlled by AI.

>> So, is that your big concern with AI? Is

it surveillance?

>> That's not the big risk I see. The big

risk I see

is how AI can cheapen

the human experience. How AI is almost

dehumanizing.

Because what people like Elon Musk and

Peter Thiel and Sam Altman are saying is

computers are so much smarter than us.

And

it could be true that AI will eventually

be able to do mathematics, do medical

diagnostics much more efficiently than

we are. But ultimately, we as humans,

we're here to love, imagine, and have

and be kind to other people. And that is

what the human experience is. And if we

focus too much on AI, that diverts and

distracts us from our true mission,

which is one of spiritual growth.

>> Our true mission

is spiritual growth.

What do you um What gives you hope?

>> Well, the only thing that gives me hope

um

um

are are my children.

Right? You met

Chris.

But, I'm here because of Chris.

Honestly, if I didn't have children,

first of all, I don't think I would be

this successful because I wouldn't have

much purpose and meaning in my life.

But, honestly, at the same time, I think

that while children and I were suddenly

this famous,

I would become very corrupted very fast.

I would just focus on the fame. I would

try to make as much money as possible

because while children, the only purpose

in life is competition against others,

right? To prove that I am materially

more successful than other people. And

so, I would just try to to make as much

money as possible for myself

in my 15 minutes of fame. But, now that

I have children, I'm more much more

concerned about building a legacy

for them and setting a good example.

>> Are you worried about Chris's future?

>> I'm not. You know, I'm not at all

worried about his future.

>> Why?

>> Because

my wife and I have loved him to the best

of our ability.

And the fact that we love him gives him

the confidence to live his life to

the fullest. We see every day

Chris as a gift from God.

>> But, if the world is collapsing, in your

words, and Chris is in that world,

>> Yeah.

>> are you not concerned?

>> I'm not at all concerned.

Because we are here

in order to have our spiritual

awakening.

And

all the crises, they will induce deep

reflection

in order for us to fulfill our purpose.

I don't know why Chris is here.

When Chris was 2 years old, he literally

told us,

"Mom, Dad, I'm from another I'm I'm from

another world." And he named that world.

"And I'm just an alien visiting you

guys." And my wife and I, we weren't

surprised. We're like, "We knew this.

Yeah.

We knew you were an alien. We we knew

you came from from another world. And

you we knew that you came here to

experience

humanity for all our faults and all for

and for all our problems. And

we see you. We love you, but we will do

whatever we can to empower you on your

mission. And we're going to try our best

because ultimately, it's your life. It's

your mission. And we cannot ever

control you.

Love is about trust. Love is about

liberation. Liberation from your own

anxieties and liberation from the need

to control others.

>> Fes, we have a closing tradition where

the last guest leaves a question for the

next not knowing who they're leaving it

for. The question left for you is, "What

is your biggest challenge and how are

you working on fixing it?"

>> My biggest challenge

is my fear.

My doubt, my paralysis.

I

went to um US border yesterday.

And now I'm afraid that I will never be

allowed back in the United States after

I I leave. I'm afraid that I might get

banned from a a lot of countries because

all I do is talk trash about different

countries. I've talked trash about

China. I've talked trash about Canada.

I've talked trash about the United

States. If I get banned from all three

countries, I'd be in a lot of trouble.

And so, my constant challenge is to

maintain my faith in God, maintain my

faith in my family, maintain

uh my faith in in my

purpose.

>> I hope you do. You have a wonderful son.

He's so he's so um

curious

is the vibe that I got from him.

>> He's a gift from God.

>> Very very curious. I just met him in the

green room then and he was like uh he's

playing with some Play-Doh and lots of

toys and stuff like that. And

I'm not surprised that he is your son

from the 15 seconds I spent with him.

>> [laughter]

>> Cuz he's very, very curious and clearly

going to be a very smart young man, so

congratulations.

>> Thank you.

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